Bud Norris' 2nd (and Much Better) Norfolk Rehabilitation Start

Previously in Camden Depot, I reported on Bud Norris' first minor-league rehabilitation start, with the AAA Norfolk Tides. He did not achieve the results he (presumably) wanted. His second minor-league rehabilitation start was with the AA Bowie Baysox, and then he returned to Norfolk for a third start. He was originally scheduled to pitch on June 2, but that game was postponed by rain and wet grounds to a doubleheader the next day. Norris made the start in Game 1 of the doubleheader, and I was working as a BIS scorer for that doubleheader. Thus, I got to see Norris' start from the top row of lower-deck seats in Harbor Park (under the overhang of the concourse roof, avoiding the threat of rain.)

As I did in the earlier post, I will simply review every opposing Gwinnett Brave at-bat and follow up with some general observations. I will preface this by saying that after this outing, it shouldn't have been too surprising that Norris was substantially more effective in his June 7 Orioles start.

First Inning

Batter 1: Eury Perez -- Called Strike, Foul, Ball, Ball, Strikout (Swinging)

Batter 2: Jose Peraza - Foul, Called Strike, Ball, Ground Out to Shortstop

On the 1-2 pitch, Peraza hit a sharp one-hop grounder right at Paul Janish, who gloved it and made a strong throw to first base.

Batter 3: Cedric Hunter - Ball, Foul, Fly Out to Right Fielder

On the 1-1 pitch, Hunter hit a pop fly to shallow right-center, behind the second baseman. Right fielder Chris Parmelee called off Rey Navarro and made the catch, running toward the infield.

Second Inning

Batter 4: Adonis Garcia - Ball, Foul, Ground Out to Shortstop

On the 1-1 pitch, Garcia hit a ground ball into the hole between third and short. The ball wasn't hit very hard, so Janish was able to get to the ball, plant, and make an accurate throw to retire Garcia.

Batter 5: Ryan Lavarnway - Foul, Called Strike, Foul, Ground Out to Pitcher

On the 0-2 pitch, Lavarnway hit a ground ball right back to Norris on the pitcher's mound. He fielded the ball and made the easy throw to first base.

Batter 6: Sean Kazmar - Called Strike, Ball, Foul, Foul, Ball, Line Out to Third Baseman

On the 2-2 pitch, Kazmar hit a hard line drive to the left of third Michael Almanzar. Almanzar took one step to his left and caught the ball in the webbing of his glove.

Third Inning

Batter 7: Wil Nieves - Called Strike, Foul, Ball, Ball, Ball, Pop Out to Second Baseman

On the 3-2 pitch, Nieves hit a pop fly behind second baseman Navarro. Navarro took a couple of steps toward first base and camped under the fly, which he caught.

Batter 8: Daniel Castro - Called Strike, Ground Out to Second Baseman

On the 0-1 pitch, Castro hit a routine grounder one or two steps to the left of second Navarro. He was easily able to pick the ball up and throw Castro out at first.

Batter 9: Mycal Jones - Called Strike, Swinging Strike, Ball, Ball, Ball, Walk

Norris got ahead of Jones 0-2 and then missed with four straight pitches.

Batter 10: Perez - Ball, Called Strike, Ball, Foul Tip, Ball, Ground Out to Second Baseman

We were getting concerned that Norris was running out of steam when he surrendered his second three-ball count, but Perez hit a routine ground ball to Navarro. With Jones running on the pitch, Navarro had to throw to first to retire Perez.

Fourth Inning

Batter 11: Peraza - Called Strike, Foul, Ball, Foul, Ground Out to Shortstop

On the 1-2 pitch, Peraza hit a routine ground ball right at Janish, who threw Peraza out at first base.

Batter 12: Hunter - Called Strike, Ball, Ground Out First Base to Pitcher

On the 1-1 pitch, Hunter hit a slow ground ball to first baseman Christian Walker. Walker fielded it and threw to Norris covering.

Batter 13: Garcia - Swinging Strike, Called Strike, Ball, Ball, Strikeout (swinging)

Michael Bowden relieved Norris to start the fifth inning. 

Observations:

• The game was played in unfavorable hitting conditions, a cool breezy evening with an occasional burst of rain. Also, Gwinnett has a team OPS of .654; while Rochester, Norris' opponent in his first start, has a team OPS of .712.
• Obviously, Norris pitched much better in this start than he did in his first start. Gwinnett hit two balls hard off him, but neither had much loft and both were hit at fielders. The most notable difference is that no balls were hit deep to the outfield, and few balls were hit in the air. There was the one hard line drive that Almanzar caught; and two pop flies that Navarro could have caught (although Parmelee called him off one.)
• It seems likely that the key to Norris' success is whether or not he can generate ground balls, or perhaps more precisely whether or not he can avoid generating fly balls. I don't know whether his success in this start was because Gwinnett has no power (17 total home runs, .337 team slugging percentage) or because Norris pitched better.
• Norris doesn't seem to be a pitcher with swing-and-miss stuff. He did generate twice as many swinging strikes in this game as he did in his first game - but that was still only four. 
• As bad a Norris was in his first rehab start (2.2  12 9 9 0 1, game score -1), his opponent on June 2, Chien-Ming Wang, was worse (3 11 10 10 4 0, game score -7).

In this start, we saw hope for Bud Norris, hope that was at least partially fulfilled in his June 7 start. It seems clear that Norris won't be anything more than an adequate innings-eater, at least in 2015 - his stuff just isn't good enough. 

Bud Norris' Norfolk Rehabilitation Start

Tonight, weather permitting, Bud Norris will make his second rehabilitation start with the Norfolk Tides. It will be his third overall rehabilitation start; his second game with the Bowie Baysox. His first rehabilitation start was in game one of the Tides' May 22 doubleheader against the Rochester Red Wings. The Orioles planned for Norris to make about ninety pitches to get himself into condition to rejoin the major-league team.

I was the milb.com Gameday datacaster for that doubleheader and thus saw Norris' performance from the press box. Like most Orioles' fans, I was disappointed in Norris' ineffective performance, in which he gave up nine earned runs and twelve hits in 2 2/3 innings. The Tides' radio broadcasters, trying to find something positive to say about his start, repeatedly emphasized that several of the hits Norris allowed were ground balls that found a hole between infielders. Is that true? Did he also surrender some hard-hit balls that were turned into outs? Just how well did Bud Norris pitch in his first rehabilitation start?

I don't have access to sophisticated video analysis tools to determine how much Norris' pitches broke. I don't even have radar-gun readings from the in-house pitch-speed display, which I can't consistently track because of my datacasting responsibilities. I did, however, record every pitch and the result of every pitch put into play. This article will review every Red Wing at-bat against Norris in more detail than the Gameday recap or the game stories. I will then follow with some general observations about his performance.

First Inning

Batter 1: Eric Farris -- Ball, Foul, Double to left
On the 1-1 pitch, Farris hit a medium-speed ground ball between third baseman Michael Almanzar and the foul line. Almanzar dove for the ball but missed it; left fielder Nolan Reimold retrieved the ball in foul territory and was unable to prevent Farris from coasting into second.

Batter 2: James Beresford - Ball, Ball, Called Strike, Called Strike, Error by second baseman
With a 2-2 count, Beresford hit a chopper to second baseman Derrik Gibson. Gibson got to the ball and fielded it, but dropped it before he could throw to first. Farris moved to third; he would have advanced even if Gibson had made the play. There was no controversy about the error; and as it turned out it didn't matter.

Batter 3: Josmil Pinto - Ball, Called Strike, Foul, Ball, Ball, 6-4-3 Double Play
On the full count, Pinto hit a tailor-made double-play ball to shortstop Paul Janish, who threw to Gibson to force Beresford. Gibson threw to first to retire the slow-moving Pinto. Farris scored on the play. Some people thought that if not for Gibson's error on the previous play, Janish might have been able to hold Farris at third before throwing out Pinto (which might have made Farris' run unearned); but that too didn't become an issue.

Batter 4: Kennys Vargas - Called Strike, Ball, Ball, Home Run to Left-Center
Vargas went the other way on the 2-1 pitch and hit a towering fly ball into the Rochester bullpen, about 385 feet or so from home plate. Although there was a wind blowing out, the home run was no fluke.

Batter 5: Danny Ortiz - Ball, Foul, Ball, Foul, Single to Center
On a 2-2 pitch, Ortiz hit a fairly hard ground ball back up the middle, just to the right of the pitcher's rubber. Norris was unable to catch it and neither Gibson nor Janish could get to it before it reached the outfield.

Batter 6: Wilkin Ramirez - Ball, Ground out to Second
With a 1-1 count, Ramirez hit a soft ground ball to the right side. Gibson charged the ball and threw Ramirez out at first.

Second Inning

Batter 7: Ryan Wheeler - Ball, Called Strike, Automatic Double to Right-Center

On a 1-1 pitch, Wheeler hit a deep fly ball between center fielder Julio Borbon and right field Dariel Alvarez. The ball hit the warning track on the fly and bounced over the outfield wall. The ball was crushed and traveled well over 380 feet on the fly.

Batter 8: Jose Martinez - Ball, Called Strike, Foul, Foul, Ball, Ground out to Second

On a 2-2 pitch, Martinez hit a routine grounder to the right side. Gibson fielded it and threw Martinez out at first, with Wheeler advancing to third.

Batter 9: Doug Bernier - Called Strike, Ball, Foul, Strikeout (Called)

Batter 10: Farris - Called Strike, Single to Right

On an 0-1 pitch, Farris hit a low line drive/ground ball that got past a diving Chris Parmelee on one bounce. Wheeler scored from third base.

Batter 11: Beresford - Ball, Ball (Stolen Base), Foul, Foul, Ball, Foul, Foul, Foul, Single to Center

On the second pitch, Farris broke for second and easily stole the base; the pitch was low and outside and catcher Steve Clevenger had no real chance to throw him out. After Beresford worked the count full and fouled off several 3-2 pitches, he hit a ground ball up the middle that neither Norris, Gibson, nor Janish could field. Farris scored as the ball wasn't hit hard enough to give Borbon a chance to throw him out at the plate.

Batter 12: Pinto - Single to Left

Pinto hit a hard ground ball to Janish's left. It wasn't that far from Janish but it was hit hard enough so that Janish's dive couldn't stop it. Beresford stopped at second.

Batter 13: Vargas - Called Strike, Ball, Home Run to Right Center

On a 1-1 pitch, Kennys Vargas hit his second home run of the game - a fly ball that sailed over the bullpen and eventually rolled / bounced into the Elizabeth River, 480+ feet from home plate. Press-box workers who have been working ever since Harbor Park opened in 1993 could remember only two other balls hit into the river - one by Jim Thome and one by Sam Horn. 

Batter 14: Ortiz - Foul, Ball, Fly out to Right Field

On a 1-1 pitch, Ortiz lifted a routine fly ball to right field that Alvarez caught easily.

Third Inning

Batter 15: Ramirez - Fly out to Right Field

Ramirez hit the first pitch into right center field. Alvarez came in a few steps and caught the routine fly ball.

Batter 16: Wheeler - Ball, Called Strike, Single to Center

On the 1-1 pitch, Wheeler hit a line drive over the infield that fell in front of Borbon. 

Batter 17: Martinez - Ball, Swinging Strike, Ball, Line Out to Left

On the 2-1 pitch, Martinez hit a hard line drive to left center field. Nolan Reimold raced into the gap and made a snow-cone catch. Wheeler was able to get back to first without a throw.

Batter 18: Bernier - Foul, Single to Left

On an 0-1 pitch, Bernier hit a ground ball between Almanzar and Janish. Janish wasn't able to get to it and it got through into left field. Wheeler stopped at second.

Batter 19: Farris - Ball, Swinging Strike, Single to Left

On the 1-1 pitch, Farris hit another ground ball between Almanzar and Janish that neither one could quite get to. Wheeler scored and Bernier stopped at second.

Batter 20: Beresford - Called Strike, Ball, Double to Left

Beresford drove the 1-1 pitch down the left-field line. Reimold was able to cut the ball off before it got to the wall, and was able to hold Farris at third, but Bernier scored easily from second.

Norris relieved by Steve Johnson

Observations:

• While a few of the hits off Norris could be said to be "lucky", most of them were well-hit balls that would have required extraordinarily good or extraordinarily lucky defense to turn into outs. 
• Norris accumulated only two swing-and-miss strikes. When Red Wing batters swung at his pitches, they either hit them into play or fouled them off. 
• Some of the hits were by hitters who are major-league quality hitters - Josmil Pinto and Kennys Vargas. But others were by non-major-league quality hitters - Eric Farris, James Beresford, and Ryan Wheeler.

It's dangerous to draw conclusions about a pitcher about only one start, especially if it's a rehabilitation start. Nevertheless, it's safe to say that Norris wasn't ready to help the Orioles on May 22.

The Good and the Bad for Bud Norris

So far for the Orioles' pitching staff, not much has gone right. And no one has had more go wrong than Bud Norris. Coming off a year in which he posted a 93 ERA- and 105 xFIP- in 165.1 innings, he's melted down completely, with a 239 (!) ERA- and 132 xFIP- in 27.1 innings. A few trends — some encouraging, some discouraging — have emerged from this not good season.

The Good

His pitch velocity and usage have stayed the same from last year.

During his first campaign in Baltimore, Norris threw a four-seam fastball as his primary pitch, with a sinker, slider, and changeup to supplement it. None of those has vanished in year two, or changed its role significantly:

Year	Fourseam%	Sinker%	Slider%	Changeup%
2014	47.0%	13.6%	30.5%	9.0%
2015	45.2%	16.1%	30.8%	8.0%

Likewise, the velocity that he rediscovered last year (more on that in a moment) has remained:

Year	Fourseam	Sinker	Slider	Changeup
2014	94.4	94.4	86.6	87.6
2015	94.3	93.8	86.7	87.9

These peripherals haven't moved, suggesting the 2014 version of Norris doesn't differ much from the 2015 one — and thus, that the latter can recapture the former's competence.

His plate discipline metrics have stayed the same — or improved.

ERA doesn't reflect a pitcher's true talent level, it takes into account other mitigating factors, yada yada yada, let's talk about walks and strikeouts. In 2014, Norris accrued a roughly average K% (20.2%) and BB% (7.6%). In 2015, those numbers have declined significantly, to 13.5% and 9.8%, respectively, and have a large hand in his early-season struggles.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, given the aforementioned repertoire stability, Norris's peripherals don't back up this depreciation. His 2015 SwStr% of 7.4% syncs up with the 7.6% mark he put up in 2014, so the whiffs haven't left. He's actually done better with looking strikes, as his PITCHf/x numbers suggest* his LoStr% should have risen to 19.6% this year from 17.6% last year. And the theoretical* increase in his ball rate (from 36.5% to 37.6%) doesn't make much of a difference.

*With framing, these can differ from the actual numbers, but Norris benefits from one of the game's better receiving catchers in Caleb Joseph.

The principle two ingredients for strikeouts, and the main one for avoiding walks, have all remained static for Norris. But perhaps the most impressive number comes with the other possible outcome for pitches: contact. When a batter hits a ball outside the strike zone, it'll be weaker than one that he hits from within it. Thus, this would seem to bode well:

Year	Z-Contact%**	O-Contact%**
2014	29.6%	8.6%
2015	24.6%	10.8%

**As a percentage of all pitches

While the recipe for weak contact obviously hasn't worked out well so far for Norris, this suggests that it may do so going forward.

The Bad

At his best, he still isn't a very good pitcher.

As I discussed in February, Norris's newfound velocity doesn't elevate his game. Even last year, his strikeout and walk rates hung around the MLB average, and those combined with a high fly ball rate to make him a subpar hurler (5% worse than average by xFIP).

How, then, did he own such a 2014 ERA 7% better than average? BABIP and LOB% magic, of course, from which he decidedly didn't benefit in the years prior. From 2009 to 2013, Norris saw 31.1% of the balls in play against him go for hits, and stranded 71.9% of the runners that reached base. For his successful 2014, he bettered those figures to 27.9% and 78.6%, respectively. Because these things tend to fluctuate over smaller samples, I feel more confident in the former numbers than I do in the latter.

Obviously, a .354 BABIP and 48.5% LOB% (Norris's current marks) won't stay that extreme over a full season. But I wouldn't expect them to fall to 2014 levels, and therefore cannot foresee another solid ERA in Norris's future.

His platoon split has only gotten worse.

Norris has never retired left-handed batters as well as one would like for a starting pitcher. Prior to 2015, they knocked him around for a .351 wOBA, compared to the .308 wOBA put up by right-handers against him. The current year, however, has seen the opposite-handed assault go to the next level: While righties have managed a .318 wOBA off Norris, southpaws have pummeled him to the tune of a .496 wOBA.

Like BABIP and strand rate, a platoon split must undergo heavy regression before one can use it to project future performance. So it's not fair (or accurate) to assume that lefties will continue to utterly dominate Norris. With that said, this deficiency in his game won't go away any time soon. His four-seamer, sinker, and slider all carry large platoon splits, meaning a right-handed pitcher who leans on them will get into trouble when he faces opposition batting from the left. The changeup helps to neutralize this to a degree, but it can't do everything.

Norris hasn't earned himself any favors with his shortcomings in 2015, and his horrid output against left-handed hitters won't inspire any confidence. If the disparity remains anywhere close to this large, he'll soon find himself in the bullpen — just as many feared.

Add it all up, and you get some positives, and some negatives. In other words, Bud Norris epitomizes the Orioles' 2015 season: A fair amount of evidence is there to give us hope, but we should probably temper our expectations.

The Camden Highball (Episode 10): "That's Not Good"

This week's episode of the Camden Highball clocks in at nearly 45 minutes (don't worry, Pat and Nate both got paid overtime).  In this installment of the podcast, we talk with Camden Depot and Beyond the Box Score's Ryan Romano about Bud Norris' 2015 season (hint, see the episode title) and we get his interesting thought on Chris Tillman, and why he may be potentially having trouble missing the strike zone.  We also discuss some thoughts on Steve Pearce as a super utility player and Jimmy Paredes (or as some have called him, the modern day Babe Ruth).  Plus some quick hits on Ryan Lavarnway and Kevin Gausman.

This week also marks the first time since the podcast has been rebooted that we will begin the show featuring a song from a local artist.  This week's artist is Brad Engler.  You can find his music on his website, Spotify, or purchase his 3-song EP, "From the Trees" on iTunes (search: "Brad Engler").  He also writes about baseball on the excellent Phillies blog, Crashburn Alley.

Camden Highball (Episode 10): "That's Not Good"

0:00 - Brad Engler - "Lean Into Me"

4:09 - Pat resists talking about the Washington Capitals

6:32 - Steve Pearce: Super Utility Player?

14:27 - Jimmy Paredes is a hitting machine

21:09 - Ryan Lavarnway instead of Steve Clevenger?

23:45 - Kevin Gausman to AAA

25:54 - Ryan Romano joins the show

27:25 - Ryan talks about Bud Norris' "interesting" start

33:16 - Ryan's thoughts on Chris Tillman

38:11 - Ryan gets positive with Jimmy Paredes and Steve Pearce

What Happened to Bud Norris's Strikeouts?

When Bud Norris came to the Orioles at the 2013 trade deadline, many pundits censured the deal, because Norris appeared to no longer possess the stuff that brought him to the show. In a representative post at FanGraphs, Eno Sarris noted:

In 2010, he threw 93.6 mph and struck out 23.1% of the batters he faced. This year, he's down to 92.4 mph and 16.6% respectively.

Although Norris would finish the year with a 19.0% strikeout rate, that still came in far below his previous norms, corresponding with the aforementioned velocity decline:

Season	K%*	K%+
2009	21.2%	124
2010	23.1%	131
2011	22.1%	125
2012	22.5%	120
2013	18.9%	100

*As a starter

Unsurprisingly, his xFIP- in 2013 (106) was notably worse than from 2009 to 2012 (100). Because of the negative nature of pitcher aging curves, most suspected that he'd never be the same again.

Then came 2014, in which a funny thing happened. The velocity returned...

Year	Fourseam	Sinker	Change	Slider
2009	94.2	0.0	86.9	87.7
2010	94.3	93.6	86.2	87.9
2011	93.6	93.3	83.9	87.0
2012	92.6	92.6	85.8	84.9
2013	93.6	93.2	86.2	85.3
2014	94.5	94.4	86.6	87.7

...but the results remained subpar:

Year	K%	K%+	xFIP-
2014	20.2%	104	105

His lucky ERA notwithstanding, Norris didn't do much in 2014. But why? If his velocity made a comeback, shouldn't the punchouts have come with it?

First, let's check his peripherals. They support the decline fully: While hitters didn't offer at this pitches any less than they used to (his 45.9% Swing% in 2014 didn't diverge much from his 45.5% mark from 2009 to 2013), they didn't miss nearly as often when they did (his 83.5% Contact% departed significantly from the 76.7% figure he theretofore posted). So an absence of whiffs caused this, but what caused that?

Entering the majors in 2009, Norris only had three pitches: a four-seam fastball, a changeup, and a slider. As the above velocity chart shows, all three of those quickly lost velocity, leading him to integrate a fourth pitch: a sinker. In 2010 and 2011, he threw it less than 7% of the time, but by 2012 — when his velocity hit its nadir — it had become a full member of his arsenal:

Unsurprisingly, Norris's sinker doesn't accrue many whiffs — for his career, it has a SwStr% of 4.3%. So its rise (or sink, I suppose) accounts for some of the disappearance in strikeouts. But most of it is due to the latter of the three aforementioned pitches.

Norris's slider has always been good. Like, really good. According to Jeff Zimmerman, an above-average slider has a whiff rate of 14.4%; Norris's has resulted in a swing-and-a-miss 18.5% of the time. Two years ago, however, that took a turn for the worse, and it hasn't recovered yet:

At 30.7%, Norris's usage rate on the pitch had never been lower.

Remember, Norris regained velocity on every pitch — including his slider — in 2014. That means speed didn't create this, which indicates it may be something within Norris's control. But what?

His location of the pitch stayed the same, as did the rate at which batters swung at it. One thing did change, though: his sequencing. Earlier in his career, he relied on the slider to get tough outs; by 2014, that had changed:

Year(s)	Slider% — Batter Ahead	Slider% — Even	Slider% — Pitcher Ahead
2009-2013	27.3%	36.4%	42.8%
2014	27.5%	29.9%	34.6%

In a hitter's count, Norris relied on the slider as much as ever; when he had the advantage, though (or when he was close to having the advantage), he decided to eschew it. Its replacement came in the form of his new favorite pitch — the sinker:

Year(s)	Sinker% — Batter Ahead	Sinker% — Even	Sinker% — Pitcher Ahead
2009-2013	8.5%	10.6%	8.7%
2014	11.2%	14.4%	14.3%

To put batters away, Norris no longer leans on his slider, as he's deemed his sinker a worthy substitute. Of course, this means fewer whiffs — a batter won't swing and miss as often in a hitter's count, when he has room with which to work, as he would in a pitcher's count, when he's more desperate. Nevertheless, that tantalizingly low ERA from last year (7% better than average, the best level of Norris's career) might convince him that it's a worthwhile tradeoff.

So, there you have it. If Norris ever decides to get strikeouts again, he can probably do so; all he has to do is decide to put batters away with his slider, instead of his sinker. The stuff is there, but if the mind isn't willing, it won't come to fruition.

2015 Steamer Projections for the Orioles' Arbitration-Eligible Pitchers

The Orioles have a lot of decisions facing them this off-season. They have big name free-agents, the Nick Markakis option decision, important players entering their final year of team control, as well as a number of players in arbitration. These decisions facing the Orioles will get plenty of attention on Camden Depot as we proceed through the off-season. In this post, I'm not going to offer opinions on the decisions facing the team, but instead hope that this creates a useful resource as we proceed into the off-season. A couple other resources that may be helpful are Jon's arrivals and departures post, as well as this salary chart courtesy of Grantland.

The list below are all of the Orioles pitchers facing salary arbitration. In my next post, I'll take a look at the hitters. I've included some 2014 numbers for each players, but just as important are the 2015 Steamer projections for these players, in order to give the arbitration cases some context.

Photo by Keith Allison

Bud Norris
Arbitration year 3
2014 salary: $5.3 million

	IP	FIP	fWAR
2014	165.1	4.22	1.5
2015 Projection	182.0	4.34	1.4

Tommy Hunter

Arbitration year 3

2014 salary: $3 million

	IP	FIP	fWAR
2014	60.2	3.15	0.8
2015 Projection	35.0	3.55	0.2

Brian Matusz

Arbitration year 3

2014 salary: $2.4 million

	IP	FIP	fWAR
2014	51.2	4.00	0.3
2015 Projection	40.0	4.03	0.1

Evan Meek

Arbitration year 1

2014 salary: $800,000

	IP	FIP	fWAR
2014	23.1	5.10	-0.4
2015 Projection	1.0*	4.51	0.0

*For players who weren't on the active roster when a team's season ended, they are only give 1 game played for now. This will be fixed after the playoffs, but I believe the rate projections will be unchanged. 

Chris Tillman

Arbitration year 1

2014 salary: $546,000

	IP	FIP	fWAR
2014	207.1	4.01	2.4
2015 Projection	202.0	4.64	0.9

Miguel Gonzalez

Arbitration year 1

2014 salary: $529,000

	IP	FIP	fWAR
2014	159.0	4.89	0.6
2015 Projection	189.0	4.95	0.2

Zach Britton

Arbitration year 1

2014 salary: $521,500

	IP	FIP	fWAR
2014	76.1	3,13	1.1
2015 Projection	65.0	3,29	0.7

These are the 7 Orioles pitchers that are eligible for arbitration this off-season. Like I said, I put this together as a resource, as there is still plenty of time to debate and analyze the decisions facing the Orioles. Feel free to do so in the comments, if you'd like. In my next post I'll take a look at the hitters who are eligible for arbitration. 

On the Orioles' Rotation: Better to Be Both Lucky and Good

According to FanGraphs' version of wins above replacement, three O's starters have been about the same -- Wei-Yin Chen (2.3), Chris Tillman (2.2), and Kevin Gausman (2.1) -- followed by Bud Norris (1.5) and Miguel Gonzalez (0.7). Ubaldo Jimenez (0.3) has barely been above replacement level. Per Baseball-Reference's version of WAR, Tillman leads (2.1), followed by Gonzalez and Chen (1.6 each), Norris (1.4), and Gausman (1.0). Jimenez also rates much worse (-0.7). Interestingly enough, two relievers, Darren O'Day and Zach Britton, lead O's pitchers in bWAR, at 2.4 and 2.1, respectively. (Britton (1.0) and O'Day (0.9) are t-fifth (with Andrew Miller) and seventh, respectively, in fWAR.) So neither fWAR nor bWAR rate O's starters highly.

A future Camden Depot post, I'm sure, will focus on the disappointing debut season for Jimenez in Baltimore. This is not that piece. And, hey, the Orioles clinched the American League East title Tuesday night, after all. So let's stay positive and focus on the five best starters in the rotation for the Orioles in 2014, who all happen to have earned run averages under 3.75. Let's also note that O's starters have pitched much better in the second portion of the season:

First half (more Ubaldo): 6.54 K/9, 3.30 BB/9, 4.09 ERA, 4.56 FIP, 4.36 xFIP
Second half (less Ubaldo): 7.30 K/9, 2.48 BB/9, 2.93 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 3.81 xFIP

As a reminder, fWAR for pitchers is based on FIP, which focuses on pitchers' strikeouts, walks, and home runs. bWAR for pitchers, however, uses Runs Allowed (earned and unearned runs) and innings pitched. Among all qualified MLB starters, Chen is 45th in fWAR. Among all qualified MLB starters ranked by bWAR, Tillman is tied for 40th. (Gausman and Gonzalez do not have enough innings to qualify.)

O's starters don't fare better in either metric for a few reasons. The strikeout leader of the five is Norris (7.36), tied for 19th in the AL. Chen has been great at limiting walks (1.66 BB/9, fifth in the AL), but the rest have walked between 2.69 and 3.22 per nine -- which is fine, but not outstanding. And they aren't skilled at inducing ground balls. They are all around 40% -- Norris is the best at 42.5% and Gonzalez the worst at 37.1%. So it's not surprising that just one starter (Gausman) has a lower FIP (3.31) than ERA (3.57). (As a reminder, ground balls are more likely than fly balls to become base hits, but a grounder has no chance of leaving the ballpark.)

This season, the average AL starter has posted the following numbers:

7.32 K/9, 2.73 BB/9, 0.93 HR/9, 43.1 GB%, 3.94 ERA, 3.86 FIP, 3.87 xFIP

And here's how the O's five best starters have done (in no particular order):

Pitcher	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	GB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP
Tillman	6.44	2.96	0.93	40.7	3.29	4.08	4.25
Gausman	6.97	3.22	0.44	40.8	3.57	3.31	3.98
Chen	6.69	1.66	1.19	40.1	3.58	3.96	3.73
Norris	7.36	2.69	1.05	42.5	3.74	4.18	4.02
Gonzalez	6.21	2.95	1.35	37.1	3.26	4.85	4.54

Two ways to determine "luck" are a low BABIP and a low HR/FB rate. Maybe Tillman and Gonzalez have been fortunate with low BABIPs, but they've done so throughout their careers. Gonzalez has posted similar overall numbers over three seasons, and he has managed to outpitch his FIP by more than a run in that period of time. Tillman, meanwhile, has outpitched his FIP by nearly half a run. Gausman has been the best at limiting home runs, but his 4.6% HR/FB rate isn't sustainable long term. (His average in parts of two seasons is 8.6%.) Tillman (8.5%) is below the league average (9.5%) by a percentage point, while Chen, Gonzalez, and Norris all exceed that number.

But one thing O's starters have been able to do well as a group is post higher than normal strand rates. The average AL starter in 2014 has a 72.1% strand rate. Gonzalez has a strand rate of 84.8%, followed by Chen (79.6%), Norris (77.5%), Tillman (77%), and then Gausman (72.7%). Among qualified AL starters, Chen (3rd), Norris (7th), and Tillman (8th) are in the top 10 among best strand rates. Lots of ace-type pitchers are in this group, including Chris Sale, Felix Hernandez, Jon Lester, and Max Scherzer, but you likely wouldn't put any of the O's starters in that class.

Gonzalez and Chen have been great at stranding runners throughout their careers, while Tillman has been above average, Norris about average, and Gausman below average. High-strikeout pitchers (like the names mentioned above) are typically better at stranding runners because of the ability to limit contact, but as mentioned above, the O's rotation does not rack up a ton of strikeouts.

O's starters have not really been fortunate BABIP or HR/FB wise, but they have been strand rate wise. So how has the rotation been able to maintain such a high strand rate? As with most things, several factors likely come in to play. First, they've been able to stay healthy. Athletes are, obviously, more likely to be effective if they are in good health. The Orioles have used only seven starters this year, and one of them (T.J. McFarland) was needed for a single spot start. The only significant injury was Ubaldo Jimenez's sprained ankle, and while it was unfortunate, the O's rotation has been better without him. Second, the O's defense has been outstanding. The O's rank first in UZR and second in DRS, and that has partly been fueled by Adam Jones and Nick Markakis performing better defensively (at least according to the advanced defensive metrics) than in recent years. That's pretty remarkable considering the O's only got half a season out of Manny Machado, who may be the team's best defensive player. A big part of the O's defense also may be defensive shifting, which is something that's deployed by most major league clubs. Third, the addition of pitching coach Dave Wallace and bullpen coach Dom Chiti perhaps has played a part.

There's also the Buck Showalter factor. I pointed out the following on Monday:

In 2011, O's SP stranded 67% of runners. 2012: 71%. 2013: 73%. 2014: 78%. I don't know what this means. Maybe nothing. But interesting.
— Matt Kremnitzer (@mattkremnitzer) September 15, 2014

Showalter's first full season as O's manager was in 2011. I doubt Showalter has some secret formula for stranding baserunners, but the Orioles have steadily improved in that department under his watch.

Regardless, what the Orioles have been able to do is put together a group of good but not necessarily great flyball starting pitchers for little cost. In hindsight, they probably did not need Jimenez, but there was no way of knowing they'd pitch this well as a group. Norris is making $5.3 million; Chen about $4 million; Tillman $0.55 million; Gonzalez $0.53 million; and Gausman $0.50 million. Norris was acquired in a trade in 2013 with the Astros; Chen was a shrewd free agent signing; Tillman was picked up by Andy MacPhail (along with Adam Jones) in the often celebrated Erik Bedard trade; Gonzalez was an unheralded minor league signing in 2012; and Gausman was a first-round draft pick in 2012.

Norris has one more year of arbitration before he can become a free agent in 2016. Tillman and Gonzalez are both arbitration eligible next season but cannot become free agents until 2018. Chen has a $4.75 million club option that will assuredly be picked up before becoming a free agent in 2016. And Gausman is under team control until 2020. And then there's Jimenez, who still has three years left on his four-year, $50 million contract. This group will be a bit more expensive next season -- Norris, Tillman, and Gonzalez will all receive substantial raises -- but it also may not be quite the question mark many figured it was before the season. Then again, Jimenez isn't going anywhere, so someone like Norris may have to go. The O's aren't paying Jimenez all that money to sit in the bullpen and pitch a few innings every few days. But there's plenty of time to worry about that later.

Stats as of September 17. Photo by Keith Allison

Orioles in Review: July 2014

Here is a look at how Orioles players fared in the month of July. General sample-size warnings apply, as this only incorporates 31 days worth of numbers. Obviously the point of this isn't to formulate an overall impression of any individual player, but instead to provide a snapshot of the past month.

First up are the hitters in order of fWAR for the month. I've included season fWAR and PA’s for a bit more context. A reminder that while no defensive metrics are shown here individually, fWAR does incorporate defensive play. 

Player	PA	fWAR	wOBA	fWAR season (PA season)
Machado	73	0.9	.394	1.7 (305)
Jones	108	0.7	.329	4.0 (464)
Pearce	90	0.4	.308	2.8 (251)
Joseph	53	0.3	.309	0.4 (153)
Young	26	0.2	.406	0.8 (140)
Lough	11	0.2	.489	0.7 (142)
Hardy	103	0.2	.259	2.0 (404)
Flaherty	55	0.0	.254	-0.1 (193)
Hundley	42	-0.1	.246	0.0 (97)
Cruz	106	-0.1	.290	2.1 (453)
Markakis	113	-0.1	.276	1.3 (492)
Schoop	69	-0.3	.204	0.3 (323)
Davis	88	-0.3	.263	0.2 (375)

-Perhaps Manny Machado’s back was acting up because he was carrying the team through the month of July.  Despite the limited plate appearances due to suspension and injury, his fWAR was good for 28^th in all of MLB in July while his wOBA ranked 54^th of the 467 hitters with 10+ PA’s in July.

-After a great April and May, Nelson Cruz has been mediocre since, as was highlighted here.

-As Jon tweeted last week, Chris Davis has struggled, to put it mildly. He’s dead last in fWAR for the month and barely replacement level on the season.

                

Here is a look at the starters for July. I've excluded T.J. McFarland (5 IP as a SP in July) and Ubaldo Jimenez (3.2 IP).

Player	IP	fWAR	FIP	Season fWAR (Season IP)
Gausman	28.0	0.6	3.24	1.1 (56.0)
Tillman	37.0	0.5	3.78	1.0 (136.0)
Norris	22.2	0.4	3.71	0.9 (109.2)
Chen	24.2	0.3	3.94	1.4 (142.1)
Gonzalez	29.2	0.2	4.75	0.3 (100.2)

-This is the second consecutive month that Gausman has led O’s starters in fWAR. One would hope and think that Gausman is here to stay, even once Jimenez returns from the DL.

 

-Gausman (3.54 ERA) and Bud Norris (3.97 ERA) both had a higher ERA than FIP on the month, while the opposite was true for the other 3 starters.

-Speaking of which, Miguel Gonzalez posted a FIP of 4.75 FIP for July, way out of whack with his 1.82 ERA. These kinds of things can happen over small sample sizes, but still worth keeping in mind moving forward.

   

And lastly, the relievers. I've excluded Preston Guilmet, he of the 1 IP in July.

Player	IP	fWAR	FIP	Season fWAR (Season IP)
Matusz	8.1	0.6	0.73	0.0 (38.0)
Britton	13.1	0.5	1.78	1.0 (55.2)
Hunter	12.0	0.4	1.88	0.4 (38.1)
O’Day	16	0.4	2.38	0.9 (49.0)
Brach	14.1	0.2	3.06	0.2 (39.0)
Webb	6.1	0.1	2.82	0.8 (42.2)
McFarland	9.1	-0.1	3.43	0.1 (36.0)

-Don’t look now, but Brian Matusz’s stellar July has him back at replacement level on the season. Matusz posted a 14.04 K/9 on the month. It would be a safe bet to expect him for to give up a home run soon after not giving one up in all of July.

-Ryan Webb posted a 2.82 FIP in July but his ERA was 11.37. Combine that with a BABIP of .483 and 

it’s safe to say that bad luck is as responsible as anything for Webb’s recent demotion (although I don’t expect him to be gone long).

-Tommy Hunter has settled nicely back into a non-closer role, posting his second consecutive month of a positive fWAR.

As I said above, it would clearly be erroneous to form your opinion of a player over just one month of play. However, while such a small sample size can be pure noise with no meaningful takeaways, it can be helpful to see what direction each player is trending in, as well as a glance at what to expect moving forward. If you have any suggestions of numbers to include or not include in future reviews like this, please leave it in the comment section.