A Farewell To Jimmy Paredes

On Monday, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com broke the news that 27-year-old infielder/DH Jimmy Paredes had been claimed off waivers by the Blue Jays. Kubatko included this quote from O's GM Dan Duquette in a later column.

"The O's tried but we just didn't find a fit for Jimmy Paredes on this year's team when it was time for him to be reinstated. Jimmy worked hard with us and we appreciate his contributions over the past two seasons." 

The big switch-hitter showed flashes of promise at the plate over 277 first-half plate appearances in 2015, slashing .299/.332/.475 with 10 homers before falling off a cliff after the All-Star break. Interestingly, his BABIP remained around .370 in the second half, but the power disappeared and his K% shot up from 24.9 to 39.3%.

Sidelined with a wrist injury to start the season, Paredes went 9-for-27 with a homer in a short rehab stint with Norfolk before coming off the DL and forcing a roster crunch that led to Duquette placing him on waivers. As a side note, his last three rehab games were against Buffalo (the Jays' AAA affiliate), so perhaps Toronto's scouts, who are notorious for picking up powerful 1B/DH types off waivers (see Edwin Encarnacion), got a good look and liked what they saw. Maybe he would have cleared waivers had Norfolk not played Buffalo. Who knows.

It's safe to say that the reason Paredes was placed on waivers in the first place was defense. The O's definitely saw the potential in his bat, even during his horrid second half swoon, or else he wouldn't have given him so many at-bats post All-Star break. But with Ryan Flaherty able to provide above average infield glovework off the bench and Hyun Soo Kim forcing his way into more playing time wherever Buck can fit him in, the O's simply didn't have a pressing need for Jimmy Paredes on the team anymore.

This whole thing reminds me a lot of when the Jays put Danny Valencia on waivers last August due to a roster crunch. The A's immediately snapped him up and he has mashed for them since then, going off for a three-homer game just a few days ago. I'm not saying Paredes will suddenly blossom into a 30-homer threat, but there are a few reasons to keep an eye on him as he begins his tenure with Toronto.

The player that Paredes gets compared to the most is Robinson Cano, and looking at his swing you can see why.

The Blue Jays broadcast didn't hesitate to make the comparison in his Toronto debut, and they linked the two by dropping the name of legendary Dominican hitting guru Luis Mercedes, whose claim to fame is shaping Sammy Sosa, and who also currently works with Edwin Encarnacion and...you guessed it, Robinson Cano. According to Jays broadcaster Buck Martinez, Paredes has been working with Mercedes since 2012.

One of Paredes' perennial weaknesses has been his coverage of the outer half. He's always been able to pull inside pitches, but a big key to his mini-breakout in the first half of 2015 was how he was able to handle outside pitches.

Here's a heat map showing his power zones (going by SLG) in the first half of 2015. Paredes took most of his at-bats as a lefty last year, and hit 24 of his 29 extra-base hits as a lefty. Take a look at that big red area outside from the LHB perspective.

He was able to achieve that elite outer-half SLG by taking the ball the opposite way with authority when he needed and generating more flyballs on outside pitches instead of slapping them into the dirt. The stats support this: from 2014 to 2015 his FB% rose by 6%, his Hard% rose by 4%, and his Oppo% rose by 5%.

Here's a GIF of the home run he hit on his very first swing as a Blue Jay.

That looks awfully close to the kind of swings he was taking early in 2015, so either he's a hot starter, or he's beginning to get his outer half power stroke back.

His main woes down the stretch last year stemmed from contact issues. Despite swinging at a higher rate than ever before in 2015, Paredes saw his Contact% drop from 74.8 to 65.6. He was missing pitches inside and outside the zone, and that resulted in a swinging strike rate of almost 20%, which would've led all of baseball by almost three per cent if Parades had enough PA to qualify.

There's no doubt Paredes is a very flawed player, and this post isn't meant to be an attack on the Duquette's decision to let him go. He'll probably continue to be plagued by contact problems, and his power is seriously limited as a righty. But if he can build on the approach he was taking early on in 2015, he could develop into a nice power bat in the homer-friendly Rogers Centre.

What's The Deal With Paredes?

Jimmy Paredes helped power the Orioles offense at the beginning of the season, but has been mostly ineffective since July.  He only had two extra base hits in July and had a miniscule OBP of just .266. Despite being 26, Parades has had limited exposure to the major leagues before this season and has already set a career high for plate appearances. Do his July struggles indicate that he is merely in a slump or that pitchers have figured him out and that he’s regressing back towards his career statistics?

This first chart provides an excellent summary of his performance this season (stats downloaded from ESPN Stats and Information and accurate as of 8/2). Paredes has had limited exposure to left-handed pitchers and has mostly struggled against them with only a .583 OPS in 53 PAs. He received 22 PAs against left-handed pitching in May and put up an .182/.182/.227 line with a 31.8 K% and no walks. He’s only received 26 PAs against left-handed pitching since May and therefore isn’t used much against left-handed pitching. This indicates that he is nothing more than a platoon DH bat against solely right-handed pitching at the moment.

As the season has progressed, his strikeout rate has increased while his HR% has decreased. It is apparent that one of the main reasons why he was successful from April through June was due to a high BABIP.

This next chart shows how Paredes has performed vs hard pitches (Fastballs, Sinkers and Cutters) and soft pitches (Changeup, Curveball, Slider and Splitter) per month against solely right handed pitchers. One reason he struggled in July was because he was incapable of making contact with soft pitches and hit a large percentage of hard pitches into foul territory. Paredes is a very aggressive batter that doesn’t draw many walks, doesn’t have great contact rates and therefore needs to be productive when he does make contact.

The next chart shows how Parades has performed based on the type of pitch that he faced and whether or not it was put into play against only right handed pitching and shows another reason for his issues. He is successful when he puts balls into play regardless of whether they’re hard or soft pitches. However, in July, he was surprisingly unsuccessful against hard pitches and only hit 1 home run and 3 singles in twenty chances good for a .550 OPS (wOBA of .241). He performed exceptionally against “soft” pitches but his ISO is showing a downward trend.

This next chart shows his performance based on whether he puts the ball into play in a pitchers count (0-1, 0-2, 1-2, 2-2), hitters count (1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 2-1) or even count (0-0, 1-1, 3-2) by month. The results are surprising because they indicate that he performed worst when making contact in a hitters count in July. In fact, the only time he got an extra base hit in July was in a pitchers count. This chart also shows that Paredes can be successful whenever in the count he makes contact. Indeed, when Parades put the ball in play, he was the 48th best batter out of 373 in pitchers counts, the 54th best out of 355 in even counts and the 25th best out of 296 batters in hitters’ counts against solely right handed pitching. These ranks suggest that his results are within the realm of reason and may be sustainable.

The next chart shows his performance based on whether the last pitch he sees is in a pitchers, hitter or even count by month regardless of whether he makes contact. The data indicate that most of his at-bats ended in a pitchers count and that he was struck out in about half of them. In July, he was struck out 60% of the time when an at bat ended in a pitchers count. It also indicates that he had a poor month, regardless of the count.

The bottom line is that Paredes is struggling because he’s unable to make consistent contact and therefore earns a large number of strikeouts. In order to be a valuable player, he needs to produce when he puts the ball into play and he simply wasn’t able to do that in July. It seems that he partially regressed and was partially in a slump.

Paredes should be seen as a project. It is difficult to give up on a player that is able to hit the ball with such authority and already has a very good tool. If he can find a way to better recognize soft pitches, then he’ll likely be able to make better contact and perhaps slightly cut down on his strikeouts. 

As this chart below shows, Paredes does have an ability to lay off pitches early in the count (0-0, 1-0, 0-1) when he swings only 53.7% of the time. In these counts, he ends up having a 31.3 CallBall% and a wOBA of .480. In the middle of the count (1-1, 2-1, 2-0), he swings 64.6% of the time and ends up with a 25.8 CallBall% and a wOBA of .407. If he can find a way to be a more patient and willing to accept a called strike, than it would mean he would likely swing at fewer pitches outside of the strike zone. Paredes has a .441 wOBA in these counts when hitting pitches in the strike zone and a .307 wOBA when swinging at pitches out of the strike zone, so this would be beneficial for him.

Buck said there's a good chance Paredes will come back next spring as a candidate to play regularly in right field. If he is able to play in right field, then he could potentially be a good platoon partner with Dariel Alvarez with Alvarez facing lefties and Paredes facing righties. Paredes won’t be eligible for arbitration until 2017 and doesn’t promise to be a player that will receive a large amount in arbitration. Such a platoon would have a strong chance of being successful and cheap for the next four years and thereby allow the Orioles to spend money on higher quality free agents.

Despite his July struggles, Paredes appears to be a promising piece. The Orioles’ may want to limit his at bats if he keeps struggling, but should try to keep him on the roster for next year and see if he can further develop.

Don't Waver: The Orioles Made The Right Move With Markakis

Not counting J.J. Hardy's struggles at the plate this season, the most obvious spot to blame for the Orioles' scattered offensive issues is corner outfield. The Orioles have been shuffling between Alejandro De Aza, Steve Pearce, Travis Snider, Delmon Young, David Lough, Nolan Reimold, Chris Parmelee, and now Chris Davis. De Aza (traded) and Young (designated for assignment) are gone, but the rest remain. It seems unlikely that the Orioles will be able to carry this many outfielders for the rest of the season, and it's also probable that they'll continue to pursue trade options.

That brings us to Wednesday's Baltimore Sun column by Dan Connolly. In it, Connolly remarks on the team's non-Adam Jones outfield issues, and he also includes intriguing quotes from Buck Showalter and Jones on dealing with the revolving door of outfielders. Read the article and see what you think.

Let's get this out of the way first, because not much has changed on the Nick Markakis/Nelson Cruz front. It's common for writers and fans alike to look back and say, hey, the Orioles should have brought back Markakis and Cruz (they won the American League East last year! etc.). Both topics have been covered at Camden Depot multiple times, the most recent being on Cruz. In his column, Connolly writes, "Besides having to replace their leadership and potential offensive production, the Orioles have missed a duo that started a combined 217 games in the corner-outfield spots last year. . . . Things, it now can be said, have not worked out as planned."

Obviously the Orioles figured most, if not all, of their corner outfielders would have performed better offensively. And it's hard to look at how Cruz hit in the first half and wonder how that would have helped this year's Orioles.

Still, there's this:

2014: 4.35 runs per game (5th in AL)
2015: 4.40 runs per game (4th)

Anyway, let's focus on Markakis. Do you think the Orioles have missed Markakis's leadership or clubhouse chemistry factor? Perhaps you're right. It's also impossible to prove, just like saying the lack of Jonathan Schoop's "easy smile and playful fun nature" in any way contributed to the O's struggles earlier in the season. The "missing leadership" rationale is frequently applied to fit a narrative when nothing otherwise will.

Instead, when focusing on tangible evidence of Markakis's play in recent years and the first portion of this season, it's more of the same. As Connolly notes, the Orioles were concerned about Markakis requiring offseason neck surgery. And maybe his recovery from that injury has played a part in his power outage.

Players with over 350 PA in 2015 with no home runs: Nick Markakis. No one else. #Braves #Orioles

— Jon Shepherd (@jsbearr) July 13, 2015

Markakis could need more time to fully recover. Watching him in his prime was a joy, and it would be wonderful if he returned to form. But his dwindling power has been a concern for a few years now. According to data from Baseball Heat Maps, here are Markakis's average fly ball distances since 2012:

2012: 284 feet
2013: 271
2014: 268
2015: 260

Now let's check out some batted ball data from FanGraphs. Markakis is not hitting the ball as hard...

2012: 32.6 Hard%
2013: 28.8
2014: 27.3
2015: 27.1

... or pulling it:

2012: 34.2 Pull%
2013: 32.9
2014: 31.4
2015: 29.9

And that's led to an increase in him hitting the ball on the ground:

2012: 41.8 GB%
2013: 46.6
2014: 45.9
2015: 51.4

If Markakis were a faster runner and able to leg out more infield hits, that might be less of an issue. But speed is not part of his game. It's probably a bit fluky that he doesn't have at least one home run, especially since he's hit 20 doubles. Regardless, his .353 slugging percentage would be the worst of his career.

Also, his .381 on-base percentage is very good, and it would be his best mark since 2008. But he's been fortunate on balls in play (.345 BABIP; .317 career mark), and it's unlikely he'll be able to carry on with a walk percentage near 12% (career around 9%), especially since he's seeing the highest percentage of pitches in the strike zone (for him) since 2010 (51.2%). He's not able to do as much damage with one swing, and pitchers are starting to go after him more.

Markakis has a wRC+ of 108, and that would have helped the Orioles somewhat. It's higher than Snider (94), Pearce (89), De Aza (70), and Lough (70). Parmelee and Reimold have hit better, though in much smaller samples. But both UZR and DRS have the O's group of right fielders better defensively than Braves' right fielders (nearly all defensive innings belonging to Markakis):

Orioles RF: +0.6 UZR, +4 DRS
Braves RF: -0.1 UZR, -2 DRS

And remember, the Braves still owe Markakis $31.5 million over the next three seasons.

This team has flaws, but it's still in the playoff race. And yes, the corner outfield plan hasn't worked out so far. The Chris Davis in right field experiment is in full swing, and if he somehow manages to be a mediocre defender, it could work. But thanks to improvements from other players (Manny Machado and Jimmy Paredes, in particular), the O's offense has been just fine (frustrating at times, but fine). Meanwhile, the team's offseason indecision on the starting rotation has probably hurt the team more (not opening a spot for Kevin Gausman) than not bringing Markakis back. But sometimes it's hard to let go.

The Orioles Were Right Not to Re-Sign Nelson Cruz

This is a guest post by Luis Torres. Read more of his work at Taking Back Baseball. You can also follow him on Twitter.

During the first game of the Mariners/Orioles series at Camden Yards, I was perusing my Twitter feed and came across a conversation between Jon Shepherd and Matt Kremnitzer. They were discussing the frustration that O's fans have had over their team's inability to re-sign Nelson Cruz during the offseason. Their frustration with the organization's lack of major acquisitions this past offseason reached a boiling point when Cruz hit a home run off of Miguel González that night. Meanwhile, Orioles' corner outfielders have all been performing at replacement level this season.

It's easy to overreact when you see that one of the best offensive contributors for your team last season is hitting dingers against that very same team this season. With the AL East being as close and competitive as it has been, one could assume that Cruz could've been a difference maker. However, you can't draw such a conclusion six weeks into the season, and you certainly can't draw conclusions on a four-year contract seven weeks into year one.

Contrary to popular belief, trades and free agent signings are to be evaluated when they are announced. Not during, and not after the contract is up, but before the player's first game is even played. In baseball anything can happen, including good results from bad decisions. The only fair, logical way to evaluate acquisitions is to go by the information that you know at the time. Let's take a look at what we knew about Nelson Cruz when the Mariners signed him.

The Mariners are paying $58 million for the age 34-37 seasons of a player who is a slow, poor outfielder, and is likely to age poorly due to his lack of athleticism. He's basically a DH who is a low OBP, high SLG hitter. I won't go into too much detail as to why I didn't like this deal for the Mariners, suffice it to say that their general manager, Jack Zduriencik, keeps paying for power when his team has finished last in the AL in OBP in four of the last five seasons and were second to last in the other.

By being smarter than Zduriencik, the Orioles avoided paying $58 million to an aging slugger and got a compensation pick in the process. That may be of little consolation to Orioles fans right now, but the thing is that Cruz is grossly overperforming and is going to come back down to earth. Remember him doing the same thing last year? Through May 2014, Cruz enjoyed a 27.9% HR/FB ratio and .324 BABIP, which fueled his outstanding .440 wOBA and 19 HR. Seeing how his career rates consisted of a 16.6% HR/FB and .302 BABIP going into that season, it was obviously unsustainable and proved to be so. From June 1 through the rest of the season, those rates dropped to a 15.9% HR/FB and .272 BABIP, resulting in a .331 wOBA and 20 HR. In other words, he turned back into Nelson Cruz. Not that Cruz playing like himself was a bad thing, especially for only $8 million. It was actually one of my favorite signings prior to the 2014 season.

Cruz is currently hitting .341/.398/.688 with 17 HR, which is good for a .458 wOBA and 2.2 WAR. He's leading the AL in AVG, SLG, HR, Total Bases, and wOBA. His OBP is second only to Miguel Cabrera. He's even better than he was at this point last year, and like last year, it's because of even higher and flukier batted ball stats. He currently has a whopping .376 BABIP and 30.9% HR/FB! This is all without any significant changes to his batted ball rates, too. For how much longer is it reasonable to believe that he's going to continue hitting almost one-third of his fly balls over the fence? Cruz is grossly outperforming even his 90th percentile PECOTA projections of a .351 wOBA by 107 points!

About all those home runs -- let's take a look at the pitchers who gave them up to Cruz. The following numbers are the pitchers' ZiPS projections going into this season.

Pitcher	Location	Handedness	HR	ERA	FIP	WAR
Collin McHugh	at Houston	RHP	2	3.71	3.71	2.2
Miguel González	at Baltimore	RHP	1	4.40	4.92	0.3
Brett Anderson	at Oakland	LHP	1	3.58	3.35	0.8
Wandy Rodríguez	at Texas	LHP	1	4.52	4.76	-0.1
Phil Hughes	Minnesota	RHP	1	3.53	2.73	5.2
Dan Otero	at Oakland	RHP	1	3.41	3.62	0.2
Tyler Clippard	at Oakland	RHP	1	2.88	3.44	0.5
Luke Gregerson	at Houston	RHP	1	3.52	3.54	0.4
Matt Shoemaker	at Los Angeles	RHP	1	3.42	3.49	2.4
David Huff	at Los Angeles	LHP	1	5.04	4.94	-0.7
Brandon McCarthy	at Los Angeles	RHP	2	3.83	3.46	2.3
Ross Detwiler	Texas	LHP	2	4.33	4.30	0.4
Frank Garces	San Diego	LHP	1	3.34	3.53	0.2
Marco Estrada	Toronto	RHP	1	4.44	4.44	0.9

There are a few good pitchers in there, but overall it's an underwhelming group.

At the time of the signing, Dan Szymborski, who is also an Orioles fan, tweeted out his disdain for the deal. In the tweet, Szymborski included the ZiPS projections for Cruz's years with the Mariners, assuming he'd be their primary DH. Remember that projections are not predictions. They are a measure of true talent level. Here's an excerpt from that table:

Year	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	WAR
2015	.250	.310	.457	118	2.0
2016	.247	.305	.450	114	1.5
2017	.244	.297	.433	108	0.8
2018	.240	.288	.411	99	0.0

While I'm not a fan of the generic $/WAR metrics out there because I believe that they're too oversimplified, $58 million and a first round pick for 4.3 WAR is a pretty bad deal. Furthermore, the ZiPS model may be overestimating the number of games that Cruz will play. He's been a bit injury prone in his career, having played over 130 games in a season only twice. Obviously, getting older isn't going to make that any better. Even with his poor defense, he'd still be an upgrade over the poor corner outfielders that the Orioles have been trotting out there, but it'd come at a high price. By the time his contract enters its third year, Cruz is likely to be just as bad as those guys anyway.

OK, those were the numbers, so now let's take a look at the scouting information. Mark Anderson wrote up a scouting report for Baseball Prospectus this past October. I won't go over it in detail, but I will show the scouting grades. For those of you who are unfamiliar, these grades come from the 20-80 scouting scale.

Tool	Grade
Hit	50
Power	70
Speed	40
Glove	40
Arm	60

Nelson Cruz is currently playing like an 80 hitter with 80 power. Those players are incredibly rare. The only player in today's game who fits that description is Miguel Cabrera. There's only a handful of players who fit that description in the past 20 years: Albert Pujols, Manny Ramírez, Barry Bonds, Frank Thomas, and...that's it. It truly is a uniquely special talent to be able to combine an 80 hit tool with 80 power. Is it really reasonable to believe that Cruz has turned himself into this class of player over the course of one offseason? I doubt that these grades come as a surprise to anybody who has seen Cruz play. From a qualitative perspective, he has big power but is only a mediocre hitter, and his speed and fielding have gotten to the point where he should be at DH as much as possible.

I hate to have to discuss this, but because somebody is going to bring it up, I don't believe that steroids have turned Cruz into a completely different player. We know for a fact that he's taken them in the past, and if you check his Fangraphs page, you'll see that he's never hit like this before. In fact, his success on the Rangers is better explained through his hard work and openness to instruction. Out of all the admitted steroid users, none of them ever turned from average to Miguel Cabrera overnight.

It is possible that Cruz has found a way to tap into some more power, though at the age of 34 that's highly unlikely. I can, however, absolutely guarantee you that Cruz didn't suddenly become an 80 hitter. Going from a 50 to an 80 hitter requires an enormous increase in the skills required to hit for average. It just doesn't happen outside of young prospects that are still developing.

Matt Kremnitzer did a nice job of explaining the Orioles' corner outfield problem recently. Even a Nelson Cruz performing at his normal levels would be an upgrade over what the team has been trotting out there, but not as much as you'd think. Cruz gives back a good chunk of his offensive gains as a result of his poor defense. He already has a -5 DRS and -7.6 UZR. His poor DRS adds up to a -0.8 dWAR, which is pretty bad for a full season, let alone seven weeks into it.

It's not like the Orioles don't have their own player who is overperforming. I won't go into the same detail that Matt went into when he wrote about Jimmy Paredes, who has taken over for Cruz this season as the team's primary DH for the most part. He currently has a .394 BABIP and 23.1% HR/FB. Those numbers will certainly regress, but thanks to his work with Robinson Canó during the offseason and changes in his approach, it's possible that his true talent level is better than the 73 wRC+ that ZiPS projected going into this season. However, I'm sure that it's nothing close to his current 155 wRC+.

Regardless, depending on whether you're going by Fangraphs or Baseball-Reference, Cruz has only been approximately half a win to one win better than Paredes so far. The reason why that difference isn't larger is the defense. Although Paredes certainly won't be winning any Gold Glove awards, his defense is a full grade better than Cruz's. It's also worth noting that Paredes is making the league minimum. Cruz, on the other hand, is making $12.5 million this season.

So for those of you out there who are still mad at the Orioles for not signing back Cruz, given all the information that I laid out here, let me ask you: Do you really think that Cruz is going to continue hitting like this for much longer? Would you risk four years and $58 million on an aging slugger to find out? Or would you rather just spend the money elsewhere and take the draft pick instead?

The Camden Highball (Episode 10): "That's Not Good"

This week's episode of the Camden Highball clocks in at nearly 45 minutes (don't worry, Pat and Nate both got paid overtime).  In this installment of the podcast, we talk with Camden Depot and Beyond the Box Score's Ryan Romano about Bud Norris' 2015 season (hint, see the episode title) and we get his interesting thought on Chris Tillman, and why he may be potentially having trouble missing the strike zone.  We also discuss some thoughts on Steve Pearce as a super utility player and Jimmy Paredes (or as some have called him, the modern day Babe Ruth).  Plus some quick hits on Ryan Lavarnway and Kevin Gausman.

This week also marks the first time since the podcast has been rebooted that we will begin the show featuring a song from a local artist.  This week's artist is Brad Engler.  You can find his music on his website, Spotify, or purchase his 3-song EP, "From the Trees" on iTunes (search: "Brad Engler").  He also writes about baseball on the excellent Phillies blog, Crashburn Alley.

Camden Highball (Episode 10): "That's Not Good"

0:00 - Brad Engler - "Lean Into Me"

4:09 - Pat resists talking about the Washington Capitals

6:32 - Steve Pearce: Super Utility Player?

14:27 - Jimmy Paredes is a hitting machine

21:09 - Ryan Lavarnway instead of Steve Clevenger?

23:45 - Kevin Gausman to AAA

25:54 - Ryan Romano joins the show

27:25 - Ryan talks about Bud Norris' "interesting" start

33:16 - Ryan's thoughts on Chris Tillman

38:11 - Ryan gets positive with Jimmy Paredes and Steve Pearce

Postseason Roster Crunch: On Chris Davis, Kelly Johnson, Jimmy Paredes, and Expanded Roles

Photo by Keith Allison

This is not how this post was supposed to go. I was planning on looking at whether Kelly Johnson or Jimmy Paredes would grab the final postseason roster spot as a bench player that would receive little playing time. And then, the Chris Davis suspension happened. The purpose of this post isn’t to offer thoughts on Davis' character, of which there’s already plenty of out there (many of them awful). Jayson Stark has written the most thoughtful piece I’ve seen.  

Over the weekend, Nate touched on the fact that the Davis suspension will mean more playing time for Kelly Johnson. Without being redundant, I wanted to look at how the suspension impacts the postseason roster, including Johnson, but also Jimmy Paredes and others in the path of this ripple effect.

To start, here’s a look at the offensive production, via wRC+, of Davis, Johnson, and Paredes.

Sample sizes: Davis 525/2842, Johnson 270/4444, Paredes 36/432. Obviously Parades' seemingly impressive production this year is from just 36 plate appearances, a pretty meaningless sample size.

Chris Davis, even with his struggles at the plate this year, is still the best option at 3B in terms of offense. While Johnson had a decent year last season for the Rays, he has provided below average offensive production 4 of the last 6 season. Paredes, while still just 25, has been 34% below league average offensive production in his 432 PA's. Paredes, the Astros 7th ranked prospect in 2011, has shown decent offensive promise  in the minors that he's yet to translate to big league success. So, the Orioles lost their best offensive option at 3B, but as Matt pointed out, it's not as devastating a loss for the lineup as it would have been last season.

The good news is that no loss at 3B could be as devastating defensively as the loss of Manny Machado. Here's how each player stacks up in terms of career UZR/150 at 3B as well as overall defensively. 

Sample sizes: Davis 734.2, Johnson 454.0, Paredes 464.2. None of these guys have enough innings at 3B to make definitive statements based off of their UZR. However, aside from scouting all 3, it's still the best metric to use.

No one who has watched Chris Davis play 3B is surprised by his miserable UZR/150 numbers. There's a reason the Orioles only played him there when it became a necessity. Johnson is a versatile fielder but not remarkable at any one position. While his defense isn't going to remind you of Machado, he's far from a liability at the hot corner. Paredes is a bit of a wild card in the field, as he's spent his career being tried at different positions, particularly during his time in the Astros organization. Scouting wise, his arm and instincts are considered fine for 3B, but his footwork has been questioned and he's inconsistent with the glove. Paredes' glove is likely an upgrade over Davis, but Johnson provides the steadiest option for the Orioles. 

So, like Nate, I expect Johnson to receive most of the playing time at 3B. The suspension likely allows room for Paredes to make the postseason roster. The Orioles do have other options, such as Alexi Casilla, but seeing as he's not on the current roster, I find it hard to believe he's being seriously considered. Buster Olney tweeted about Christian Walker possibly grabbing a roster spot as a result of the Davis suspension. I don't see this as a realistic possibility. Steve Pearce will play 1B and Flaherty will serve as the backup there. Adding Walker would limit roster flexibility and also ensure that the Orioles would have to burn one of his options next Spring if he doesn't make the team out of camp. 

Losing Chris Davis, especially the way in which it happened, is unfortunate. But it's not devastating. This team has overcome so much. Matt Wieters and Manny Machado were lost to injury. Ubaldo Jimenez is just lost. But this season has shown that, as one guy goes down, production can arise from the most unexpected places. Let us not forget that Zach Britton only made the roster because he was out of options. Steve Pearce has gone from a man designated for assignment earlier in the year to a key part of the lineup. While I don't necessarily expect heroics from Johnson or Paredes, the loss of Chris Davis is not a devastating blow to the Orioles postseason chances.

Quick Thoughts on Recent Roster Changes

We’re in the home stretch of the 2014 season and the Orioles couldn’t be in a better position.  Prior to last night’s game, they sat 9.5 games in front of the New York Yankees in the American League East (their magic number to clinch the division was 17), which is the largest lead of any division in baseball.  Both Baseball Prospectus and ESPN have them as a near lock to make the playoffs at almost 100%, and BP also gives them a 99.1% chance to win the division outright.  Things are definitely looking good in Baltimore at the moment.  Despite the comfortable lead, the Orioles decided to bolster their roster last weekend with the help of a couple of trades and the expanded rosters, due to the end of the minor league season.  Let’s take a quick look at what transpired.

August 28 – Orioles recall INF Jimmy Paredes

Paredes essentially takes the roster spot of Cord Phelps, who was designated for assignment and later outrighted to the minors.  Paredes is a slightly better player than Phelps in basically all aspects of the game, and has experience playing the outfield as well, giving the team a little more positional flexibility.  Having said that, they’re both replacement level, so this move doesn’t really change much.

August 31 – Orioles trade 2B Jemile Weeks and 2B Ivan De Jesus Jr. to the Boston Red Sox in exchange for 3B Kelly Johnson and 3B Michael Almanzar

Kelly Johnson (photo via Keith Allison)

Baltimore basically traded its depth at the keystone for depth at the hot corner with this deal, and considering the fact that Manny Machado is out for the season, it’s not a bad idea.  Weeks (who was the “big get” in the Jim Johnson trade during the offseason) is a decent piece to have in your organization, but he’s limited to second base, and doesn’t even play that position very well.  On the other hand, Johnson can play pretty much anywhere except SS and CF, and (to my surprise) has been average or above average defensively at every position except second base.  He’s also a better hitter than Flaherty or Paredes, although we shouldn’t expect the above average offensive numbers Johnson has put up in the past, as he hasn’t been that type of hitter since 2010.

The inclusion of Almanzar is interesting, as the Orioles get him back after selecting him in the Rule 5 draft and returning him to the Red Sox.   I’m not exactly sure what Baltimore sees in him, but he’s more of a prospect than Weeks or De Jesus Jr, so it’s good that the team was able to pick him up again, especially without having to keep him on the 40-man roster this time around.

August 31 – Orioles trade RHP Mark Blackmar and RHP Miguel Chalas to the Chicago White Sox in exchange for OF Alejandro De Aza

Alejandro De Aza (photo via Keith Allison)

Picking up De Aza for two relief “prospects” looks like a nice move by Duquette and company.  The word “prospects” was in quotes intentionally, as Blackmar and Chalas are probably better classified as organizational filler.  They each have a chance at producing at the major league level, but through different means.  Chalas has the stuff, but doesn’t know where he’s throwing it, while Blackmar can locate his pitches, but there’s nothing special about them.

Meanwhile, De Aza adds outfield depth.  He has played mostly center field in his career, and grades out as a slightly above average outfielder according to UZR/150 (although DRS has him at -13).  So while he won’t be supplanting David Lough as a defensive replacement, he will be taking away some of his at-bats, especially against right handed pitching, where his career wRC+ of 102 looks much better than Lough’s, which currently sits at 90.  As an added bonus, De Aza is under club control next year as well, which could soften the blow should Nelson Cruz and/or Nick Markakis not return in 2015.

September 1 – Orioles recall RHP Evan Meek and purchase the contract of LHP Joe Saunders

These two were most likely recalled to soak up some innings in September and make sure the regular bullpen arms are rested when the playoffs start. We’ll always remember Saunders from those two magical starts in the 2012 playoffs where he allowed 2 runs in 11.1 innings, but he’ll reside in the bullpen now, waiting for the opportunity to mop things up.

September 2 – Orioles recall C Steve Clevenger and RHP Ryan Webb

Clevenger will likely be the emergency catcher, and has the potential to start a couple of times against right handed pitching.

Despite being Baltimore’s 3rd best reliever at the time, Webb was sent down to the minors with the acquisition of Andrew Miller, a move that confused me at the time (and still does actually).  In the end, it didn’t matter much, as the bullpen has been doing just fine without him.  Webb could see higher leverage situations (at least more than Meek and Saunders), but if I’m reading the postseason roster rules correctly, he won’t be eligible for the playoffs.  Consider me still confused.

September 2 – Orioles purchase the contract of OF Quintin Berry

Berry won’t be eligible for the playoffs either, but he’s on the September roster to do one thing, and that’s steal bases.  He’s a perfect 24 for 24 in stolen base attempts in his major league career.  It’s a little surprising that they didn’t find a way to add him in time to be playoff eligible, as it’s something the team doesn’t do much (or well).  They are 36 for 52 (69%) this season, which ranks 23rd in MLB (their 36 SB’s rank last by a healthy margin).  However, Berry doesn’t provide much value elsewhere, so it’s not much of a surprise they wouldn’t want to use a playoff roster spot on him.

As Roch Kubatko of MASN reported, the Orioles appear to be done with September call-ups barring injury, so the final 2014 roster appears set.  Having said that, take the month of September to watch the Orioles with a relaxed mind, because come October, that won’t be an option anymore.