This is the final post of the day and will cover the Orioles final selection of the first night of the draft. Based on the MLB pipeline rankings, two players may be around who I have already discussed. Griffin Conine has a 50 ranking on him whereas I think he is a fringe top 10 prospect based on the CRAP model I release today. Second, Nico Hoerner is noted as a 52 ranking where I see him, based on the CRAP, as more of a late 20s value. In addition to those guys, I have a few more to target for this second round selection.
Joe Gray, Jr., OF
Hattiesburg HS
Gray has some loud tools, but seems to have trouble showing them at times. He does not control the strike zone well even though he has a very quick bat and amazing batting practice power. Gray winds up having trouble translating it all to the playing field. He also has a rocket for an arm, but he has trouble staying within himself and repeating his throwing mechanics. This means the ball often misses the target. That said, he has an excellent package of tools that could play well as a fringe centerfielder like Adam Jones or getting pushed into right field.
Mike Siani CF/LHP
William Penn Charter (HS)
Siani is a defensive wunderkind, which is a rare find. He shows plus speed and a plus arm with good power and not so good contact. There is certainly potential for more there and a question as to whether a club can re-design his swing to make more use of his talents. If the hitting fails, there is some merit for trying him out as a southpaw reliever.
Tanner Dodson OF/RHP
CRAP: 45 (as a corner OF)
Dodson is, I think, a wild card here. Everyone seems to be evaluating him on his ability to be an excellent late inning reliever. He shows a high 90s fastball and a decent slider, which has made him a very effective closer. However, his 320/384/386 batting line obscures his work on the Cape with a 365/461/500 line. That line is impressive enough to raise his position prospect potential to a 45, according to our CRAP model. He sure seems like a very interesting chip to me. Other collegiate hitters are showing up as 35/40s, so Dodson sure is an outlier.
Showing posts with label CRAP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CRAP. Show all posts
04 June 2018
Orioles Draft Targets 1:37(37)
Earlier today, I released this year's Collegiate Regression Analysis Projection (CRAP) models and some thoughts on the Orioles first selection. My general perspective would be for the Orioles to seek out positional talent early on in the draft. If desirable talent is available there, I think positional talent is easier to translate to further worth and easier to develop. It also somewhat dictates a move to look toward arms later in the draft.
That said, I think you still look for value. For instance, I would have interest in players who still appear to be 50+ value prospects by the CRAP model. Media rankings put potentially available players to be Griffin Conine (who I mentioned in the previous piece and who I think is worth a 1:11 selction), Steele Walker, and Nico Hoerner.
Steele Walker, LF
Oklahoma
CRAP: 50/55
Walker is a bat first guy without a great deal of power to go along with that bat. He is likely the guy everyone would call gritty. That said, he does all the little things on the field to improve his outcomes, which then really plays up his advanced bat at the plate. He is a smart player who plays solid defense, but with an arm that will slide him to left field.
Nico Hoerner, 2B
Stanford
CRAP: 50/55
Second basemen tend to be a tricky position to target because if they cannot defensively handle secondbase, then where else can their bat really play. For Hoerner, he is an offense first second baseman with great gap power and a solid showing in wood bat leagues. Those attributes impress the CRAP model and impress me. A plus speed guy with great doubles power, that might even play in the outfield if it falls apart on the dirt.
Will Banfield, C
Brookwood HS
Banfield might be a couple years away from being a Joey Bart. He is a solid defender with a rocket arm. He has trouble with his offense, but has light tower power. As a catcher, just a little bit of that power is needed to translate into a solid pro. All else fails, he might be able to be converted into a middle relief role although he has not developed that at all.
Ethan Hankins, RHP
Forsyth Central HS
Hankins is regarded as a backend first round talent, which is based on the kind of pitcher he was. Last year, he toyed with 100 mph with an excellent changeup. He sort of fits the Gausman role. However, he has been injured and has yet to return to the velocity he was producing last year. If healthy, he might have been a top 10 talent, but that did not happen. If somehow he dropped to 35, I think he would be a boon for the Orioles.
That said, I think you still look for value. For instance, I would have interest in players who still appear to be 50+ value prospects by the CRAP model. Media rankings put potentially available players to be Griffin Conine (who I mentioned in the previous piece and who I think is worth a 1:11 selction), Steele Walker, and Nico Hoerner.
Steele Walker, LF
Oklahoma
CRAP: 50/55
Walker is a bat first guy without a great deal of power to go along with that bat. He is likely the guy everyone would call gritty. That said, he does all the little things on the field to improve his outcomes, which then really plays up his advanced bat at the plate. He is a smart player who plays solid defense, but with an arm that will slide him to left field.
Nico Hoerner, 2B
Stanford
CRAP: 50/55
Second basemen tend to be a tricky position to target because if they cannot defensively handle secondbase, then where else can their bat really play. For Hoerner, he is an offense first second baseman with great gap power and a solid showing in wood bat leagues. Those attributes impress the CRAP model and impress me. A plus speed guy with great doubles power, that might even play in the outfield if it falls apart on the dirt.
Will Banfield, C
Brookwood HS
Banfield might be a couple years away from being a Joey Bart. He is a solid defender with a rocket arm. He has trouble with his offense, but has light tower power. As a catcher, just a little bit of that power is needed to translate into a solid pro. All else fails, he might be able to be converted into a middle relief role although he has not developed that at all.
Ethan Hankins, RHP
Forsyth Central HS
Hankins is regarded as a backend first round talent, which is based on the kind of pitcher he was. Last year, he toyed with 100 mph with an excellent changeup. He sort of fits the Gausman role. However, he has been injured and has yet to return to the velocity he was producing last year. If healthy, he might have been a top 10 talent, but that did not happen. If somehow he dropped to 35, I think he would be a boon for the Orioles.
Orioles Draft Targets 1:11(11)
If you are a veteran reader of the site, then you know my general take on the draft. I think what one should do is take either other worldly talent or the best college hitter. If there is no second coming and the best college hitter is clearly an overdraft, then you overdraft and use those savings betting on a high school talent that wants an overslot. In other words, I think you want superstars from the draft, but you at least need talent to pan out. College hitters are one of the better ways to ensure a greater likelihood of something good happening.
Be sure to take time to listen to former Camden Depot writer, current 2080 baseball writer Nick Faleris on Locked on Orioles discussing the Orioles and the 2018 draft.
With that in mind, I am focusing on what talent is likely available at the Orioles first selection, 11th overall.
Jonathan India, 3B
Florida
CRAP: 55
India really is the ideal pick here. He is an advanced bat that likely has a quick path to the Majors and a glove that should easily stick at the hot corner. As Faleris notes in the podcast, what dings India is that his performance last summer with a wood bat left a lot to be desired. Poor wood performances, particularly when bookended by successful collegiate campaigns, can point toward a swing that is honed for metal bats. Adapting the swing to a wood bat may add time to the developmental path or result in a swing that cancels out a great deal of power.
It appears that most analysts gloss over the wood bat issue and think he can move forward easily enough. However, once you get past the first few picks in any draft you will find warning flags. That said, he would likely be my primary target. Our CRAP model sees India as the second best collegiate position playing talent, best only by catcher Joey Bart.
Griffin Conine, OF
Duke University
CRAP: 50/55
Conine is the son of former MLB player Jeff Conine. He carried a ton of helium with him into the season due to his great play the previous summer. However, his first month or so was mired in a slump with only a recent tear making his performance look on par with other college bat first players. He looks to be a left fielder as his arm likely will not play in right field.
Looking around, the rankings largely put Conine in around the supplementary round or into the second round. I do not agree. His season happened, but so did he proficiency in a wood bat league as well as great play down the stretch this year. That unevenness looks bad, but does it really look as bad when you compare what he has done to the performance of others?
To me, he looks like a very solid bat and might even could be gotten for less than the slot, which would open up money later on to take chances on some promising high school talent.
Jarred Kelenic, OF
Waukesha West HS
Jarred Kelenic is a high school and deviates from my normal plan. He is the guy with the superstar talent. When you look at the Orioles, do you take the guys with the solid player ceilings or do you take someone who might be a multi-MVP kind of guy? Kelenic is a true five tool player who looks a lock to stay in center field. He is a player you look at and dream about building an outfield around him.
CRAP, as you probably know, is a collegiate model and only handles position players. It knows nothing about Kelenic. So, my interest here is predominantly due to the scouting outlook on him.
Soon, I will post the sandwich round post.
Be sure to take time to listen to former Camden Depot writer, current 2080 baseball writer Nick Faleris on Locked on Orioles discussing the Orioles and the 2018 draft.
With that in mind, I am focusing on what talent is likely available at the Orioles first selection, 11th overall.
Jonathan India, 3B
Florida
CRAP: 55
India really is the ideal pick here. He is an advanced bat that likely has a quick path to the Majors and a glove that should easily stick at the hot corner. As Faleris notes in the podcast, what dings India is that his performance last summer with a wood bat left a lot to be desired. Poor wood performances, particularly when bookended by successful collegiate campaigns, can point toward a swing that is honed for metal bats. Adapting the swing to a wood bat may add time to the developmental path or result in a swing that cancels out a great deal of power.
It appears that most analysts gloss over the wood bat issue and think he can move forward easily enough. However, once you get past the first few picks in any draft you will find warning flags. That said, he would likely be my primary target. Our CRAP model sees India as the second best collegiate position playing talent, best only by catcher Joey Bart.
Griffin Conine, OF
Duke University
CRAP: 50/55
Conine is the son of former MLB player Jeff Conine. He carried a ton of helium with him into the season due to his great play the previous summer. However, his first month or so was mired in a slump with only a recent tear making his performance look on par with other college bat first players. He looks to be a left fielder as his arm likely will not play in right field.
Looking around, the rankings largely put Conine in around the supplementary round or into the second round. I do not agree. His season happened, but so did he proficiency in a wood bat league as well as great play down the stretch this year. That unevenness looks bad, but does it really look as bad when you compare what he has done to the performance of others?
To me, he looks like a very solid bat and might even could be gotten for less than the slot, which would open up money later on to take chances on some promising high school talent.
Jarred Kelenic, OF
Waukesha West HS
Jarred Kelenic is a high school and deviates from my normal plan. He is the guy with the superstar talent. When you look at the Orioles, do you take the guys with the solid player ceilings or do you take someone who might be a multi-MVP kind of guy? Kelenic is a true five tool player who looks a lock to stay in center field. He is a player you look at and dream about building an outfield around him.
CRAP, as you probably know, is a collegiate model and only handles position players. It knows nothing about Kelenic. So, my interest here is predominantly due to the scouting outlook on him.
Soon, I will post the sandwich round post.
MLB Draft 2018: MLB, 2080, and CRAP rankings of College Position Players
Well, I managed to get it done again. Below is the ranking of collegiate position players with our Collegiate Regression Analysis Projection (CRAP) model as well as rankings by MLB Pipeline and 2080 Baseball. I put in italics players whom the model considers do not play in premier collegiate conferences. The model dings those guys a bit. Though, in the case of Bohm, his wood bat performance eliminates that hit. However, if we ignore the conference adjustment. Bohm would move up to a 55/60 rating for CRAP. Swaggerty becomes a 50/55. Isbel rises to a 40/45. The others are sub 40. In other words, CRAP really does not see in Swaggerty what the others see.
Anyway, here is the comparison.
Anyway, here is the comparison.
| Player Name | Po. | MLB | 2080 | CRAP | CRAP # |
| Joey Bart | C | 2 | 5 | 1 | 55 |
| Jonathan India | 3B | 4 | 3 | 2 | 55 |
| Griffin Conine | OF | 13 | 9 | 3 | 50/55 |
| Steele Walker | OF | 8 | 8 | 4 | 50/55 |
| Trevor Larnach | OF | 6 | 7 | 5 | 50/55 |
| Nico Hoerner | 2B | 15 | 13 | 6 | 50/55 |
| Jake Mangum | OF | 29 | 28 | 7 | 45/50 |
| Nick Madrigal | 2B | 1 | 4 | 8 | 45 |
| Seth Beer | 1B | 12 | 12 | 9 | 45 |
| Alec Bohm | 1B | 3 | 2 | 10 | 45 |
| Grant Little | OF | 22 | 23 | 11 | 45 |
| Cadyn Grenier | SS | 18 | 24 | 12 | 40/45 |
| Luken Baker | 1B | 16 | 33 | 13 | 40/45 |
| Cal Raleigh | 1B | 26 | 20 | 14 | 40 |
| DaShawn Keirsey | CF | 24 | 19 | 15 | 40 |
| Travis Swaggerty | OF | 5 | 1 | 16 | 40 |
| Alfonso Rivas | 1B | 25 | 27 | 17 | 40 |
| Tristan Pompey | OF | 14 | 29 | 18 | 35/40 |
| Gage Canning | OF | 21 | 21 | 19 | 35/40 |
| J.J. Schwarz | 1B | 34 | NA | 20 | 35/40 |
| Kyler Murray | CF | 10 | 11 | 21 | 35/40 |
| Zach Watson | OF | 17 | 16 | 22 | 35/40 |
| Kyle Isbel | OF | 19 | 15 | 23 | 35 |
| Jameson Hannah | OF | 9 | 6 | 24 | 35 |
| Jeremy Eierman | 3B | 7 | 22 | 25 | 35 |
12 June 2017
2017 CRAP Positional Collegiate Rankings for the Draft
This will be a short post because I actually somehow thought the draft was tomorrow and I have only a lunch break to push this out. Anyway, I developed CRAP last year. You can read about it here (add soon). In sum, the model worked well last year, but I used a curated list handed to me that included collegiate positional players on the top 100 rankings. This year, I expanded the list from about 20 to 83. This list also differs because it includes players in collegiate conferences I did not use when constructing the model. Effectively, anyone outside of the ACC, SEC, Pac-12, and Big 12 did not have this model consider them. To compensate for that, I tried to develop conference strength ratings, but that is not related to future performance. It only is related to performance in season across collegiate conferences.
Anyway, the model top 10 list for tonight:
You might wonder where the rest of the top collegiate bats for BA were projected.
As you can see, there is a whole lot more jumbled around this year than it was last year. One major reason is that there really are no standouts this season. Last year, the model has players flirting with the 60s and this year that is not the case. However, it appears that there is a large number of fringe MLB starters this year which did not seem present last year.
Personally, I am a bit surprised. I thought Brian Miller and Keston Hiura would perform better according to the model, but that was not the case. It also is a bit unsettling as a modeler that nine of the top ten in the CRAP top ten are players that Baseball America thought were not first day selections.
Oh well, let's check back tonight and then in a few years.
Anyway, the model top 10 list for tonight:
| Name | Po. | BA | xRating | xSlash(HiA) |
| Joe Dunand | SS | 130 | 50/55 | 276/351/461 |
| Will Toffey | 3B | 162 | 50 | 285/402/439 |
| Adam Haseley | OF | 8 | 50 | 296/401/453 |
| J.J. Schwarz | C | 374 | 50 | 255/345/393 |
| Garrett Benge | 3B | NR | 50 | 275/388/417 |
| Mike Papierski | C | NR | 50 | 247/362/389 |
| Brent Rooker | OF | 45 | 45/50 | 284/374/485 |
| Chris Williams | C | 118 | 45/50 | 249/309/412 |
| Brendan McKay | 1B | 3 (P) | 45/50 | 308/423/492 |
| Drew Ellis | 3B | 66 | 45/50 | 269/359/434 |
You might wonder where the rest of the top collegiate bats for BA were projected.
| Name | Po. | BA | xRating | xSlash(HiA) |
| Evan White | IB | 12 | 40 | 248/311/390 |
| Keston Hiura | OF | 14 | 45 | 279/378/422 |
| Pavin Smith | 1B | 15 | 40/45 | 275/373/412 |
| Jeren Kendall | OF | 18 | 40 | 245/309/384 |
| Logan Warmoth | SS | 19 | 45/50 | 261/332/398 |
| Jake Burger | 3B | 20 | 40 | 228/308/370 |
| Stuart Fairchild | OF | 43 | 40/45 | 257/329/410 |
| Brian Miller | OF | 44 | 40/45 | 264/345/383 |
| Kevin Merrell | SS | 51 | 40 | 230/302/335 |
| Greg Deichmann | OF | 64 | 45 | 266/368/430 |
| Gavin Sheets | 1B | 65 | 45 | 282/395/461 |
| K.J. Harrison | C | 68 | 45 | 263/338/387 |
| J.J. Matijevic | 1B | 70 | 45/50 | 302/366/464 |
| Michael Gigliotti | OF | 71 | 35 | 211/304/312 |
As you can see, there is a whole lot more jumbled around this year than it was last year. One major reason is that there really are no standouts this season. Last year, the model has players flirting with the 60s and this year that is not the case. However, it appears that there is a large number of fringe MLB starters this year which did not seem present last year.
Personally, I am a bit surprised. I thought Brian Miller and Keston Hiura would perform better according to the model, but that was not the case. It also is a bit unsettling as a modeler that nine of the top ten in the CRAP top ten are players that Baseball America thought were not first day selections.
Oh well, let's check back tonight and then in a few years.
09 June 2016
CRAP: Collegiate Regression Analysis Projection (2016 Draft)
 |
| Live look at how CRAP data is processed. |
Projecting performance with high resolution data can be troublesome. Replace that with the low resolution collegiate data, the process becomes more problematic. Combine that with twenty year old players whose distance between their current package and their final one can be rather vast, you have a difficult task in front of you. This led me to experiment with minimal expectations to try to see if we can glean anything of use from a projection model for collegiate players. The resulting model is named Collegiate Regression Analysis Projection (CRAP).
CRAP is a rather limited model with great uncertainty. I used player, park, and team data from collegiate seasons 2012-2014 and paired it with professional data from 2013-2015. Professional data was further translated so that everything was measured to the league average of the Carolina League (High A ball). That is all this model knows. It knows players who were drafted, signed, and played in a professional league the year after their career ended. It does not know what happens beyond the following season. All it knows is the current year and the next, trying to connect all of those performance data points for each individual player.
Some limitations include never considering players who were unable to play professionally for whatever reason. There is also some limitation on conference data. This system leans heavily on the ACC, Pac10, SEC, and the Big 12 or whatever they call themselves this minute. I also have no knowledge of any player's defensive ability. The model assumes they perform as an average defender at those positions. Finally, there is no consideration of how a player performs with a wood bat. I did a secondary adjustment for performance at the Cape and for Team USA. That adjustment is a bit weak as we are getting pretty far down the rabbit hole from the original data.
Anyway, here is the collegiate position player board, which considered players in Baseball America's top 100 from a few weeks back (it has changed a bit). If you want a player not mentioned here, let me know and I will try to post an addendum.
CRAP 2016 Draft Board (College Position Players)
Avg/OBP/Slg are 2017 HiA Projections
20-80 scale is unadjusted for wood
20-80+ is adjusted for wood
| PLAYER | POS | AVG | OBP | SLG | 20-80 | 20-80+ |
| Kyle Lewis | OF | .290 | .424 | .473 | 61 | 69 |
| Will Craig | 3B | .291 | .413 | .483 | 63 | 59 |
| Zack Collins | C | .294 | .446 | .467 | 69 | 59 |
| Heath Quinn | OF | .278 | .376 | .459 | 51 | 58 |
| Sean Murphy | C | .273 | .378 | .414 | 51 | 54 |
| Matt Thaiss | C | .295 | .392 | .428 | 54 | 54 |
| Nick Senzel | 3B | .281 | .374 | .421 | 47 | 53 |
| Corey Ray | OF | .276 | .360 | .425 | 46 | 51 |
| Chris Okey | C | .270 | .368 | .419 | 51 | 48 |
| Bryan Reynolds | OF | .268 | .369 | .429 | 48 | 45 |
| Anfernee Grier | OF | .265 | .349 | .403 | 41 | 39 |
| Nick Banks | OF | .255 | .324 | .391 | 35 | 35 |
| Jake Fraley | OF | .261 | .349 | .367 | 34 | 33 |
| Ryan Boldt | OF | .249 | .310 | .362 | 29 | 31 |
| Stephen Wrenn | OF | .246 | .314 | .361 | 29 | 31 |
| Bryson Brigman | SS | .257 | .323 | .343 | 30 | 30 |
| Buddy Reed | OF | .233 | .318 | .354 | 31 | 30 |
| Bobby Dalbec | 3B | .214 | .292 | .346 | 28 | 29 |
| Errol Robinson | SS | .245 | .309 | .339 | 28 | 28 |
Below are the rankings for CRAP and BA's current rankings of college level position players. I did not include some of the other players who have moved into the top 100 since I scraped the list a few weeks ago.
CRAP
Ranking
|
BA
| |
Kyle Lewis
|
1
|
1
|
Will Craig
|
2
|
8
|
Zack Collins
|
3
|
4
|
Heath Quinn
|
4
|
9
|
Sean Murphy
|
5
|
12
|
Matt Thaiss
|
6
|
5
|
Nick Senzel
|
7
|
2
|
Corey Ray
|
8
|
3
|
Chris Okey
|
9
|
11
|
Bryan Reynolds
|
10
|
6
|
Anfernee Grier
|
11
|
10
|
Nick Banks
|
12
|
16
|
Jake Fraley
|
13
|
13
|
Ryan Boldt
|
14
|
14
|
Stephen Wrenn
|
15
|
19
|
Bryson Brigman
|
16
|
15
|
Buddy Reed
|
17
|
7
|
Bobby Dalbec
|
18
|
17
|
Errol Robinson
|
19
|
18
|
As it stands, the Orioles are largely connected with Buddy Reed who stands high on the Baseball America rankings, but who is highly suspect on the CRAP rankings.
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