As Britton Left the Clubhouse, so Ended the Flanagan Era

As I noted when the Zach Britton deal was going down, that the remnants of a past era were being swept from the Orioles franchise.  Britton was the last Oriole signed during Mike Flanagan's time as General Manager to be on the club's 40 man roster.

When Zach Britton is traded, the Orioles 40 man roster will no longer have a player acquired during Mike Flanagan's tenure.

RIP Flanny pic.twitter.com/uzbGwzJjEG

— Camden Depot (@CamdenDepot) July 25, 2018

Britton was drafted in the third round of the 2006 draft out of Wetherford High School in Texas.  It was his first time away from home.  Britton was part of Flanagan's grand plan of developing young pitching and strong defense while supplementing that roster with high profile talent like Miguel Tejada and Javy Lopez.  Young talent, like Britton, were not only evaluated on their physical ability, but also on novel (yet misguided) psychological tests.  Flanagan was unceremoniously replaced by Peter Angelos right after the draft in 2007 with Andy MacPhail.  To those who knew Flanagan, this was both shocking and deeply embarrassing.  It, supposedly, was something he had difficulty dealing with for the rest of his life.

With that, there is not much to say.  The sun comes it.  It goes down.  Life and death continue.

We will not be writing up a Zach Britton trade piece.  I will wait until a couple other expected deals come together into next week and take a more global look.  The short of this though is that the Orioles were able to beef up their ranks.  This was something that was depleted by trades in earlier seasons that saw arms like Zach Davies and Josh Hader depart.  It also helps introduce talent, especially the live arms of Carroll and Pop, that a respectable international amateur system would have developed.  Dillon Tate is an interesting arm that has rotation potential, but he does not exactly look like a difference maker.  Basically, the trades have all been solid and mark the Orioles getting back to average.

Now, one caveat to the above with Britton, if we expand beyond the 40 man roster, then there still is one   Technically, there is still one player left in the entire organization that still hails from that times, Garabez Rosa.  Rosa was signed in 2007 before leadership was handed over to Andy MacPhail.  Rosa outlasts Camden Depot's existence by three weeks.

Moving on From Manny Machado

It happened. It took a long time, but the Orioles finally traded Manny Machado. Most people seem to agree that the return from the Los Angeles Dodgers was fair. Maybe it was, maybe it wasn't. The "winner" of the deal won't be revealed for a few years, perhaps well after Machado has left Hollywood for a big contract elsewhere.

For the Orioles, the future is what's most important. But the success of that future depends greatly upon what the front office decides to do in the present. Zach Britton is expected to move soon. Brad Brach as well, and maybe even Adam Jones. There is a lot of work to do and little time to get it done.

On top of those expiring contracts, it's time for the Birds brass to think long and hard about the players that are under contract for 2019 and beyond. Years of control are worth a pretty penny on the trade market. Should they stay or should they go? We discuss on this week's episode of The Warehouse Podcast.

Plus, we break down the Machado trade, complain about who will be on the souvenir sodas next year and reminisce on some of the best parts of the Manny era in Baltimore.

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Is Zach Britton OK?

It remains to be seen if the Orioles will consider dealing any player who is under team control beyond 2018. Still, every trade chip among the team's "big four" of soon-to-be free agents besides Manny Machado -- Adam Jones, Brad Brach, and Zach Britton -- has at least one major issue. Jones is no longer a capable defender in center field. Brach is a good reliever, but not a great one. And Britton, who is now back after rupturing his Achilles in December, has an ERA over 6, a FIP over 4, and does not yet look like himself. (The quality of Machado's defense at shortstop is also a question mark, if you want to nitpick, but he is still the team's top trade chip, by far.)

Back to Britton. After being activated on June 11, he made his first appearance of the year on June 12, which was a few days earlier than the June 15 return date Buck Showalter mentioned in early June. In his 2018 debut, Britton walked three but still tossed a scoreless inning. His next three appearances were relatively uneventful, though his vaunted sinker hit 93 and 94 mph on the radar gun instead of 96 and 97 (or higher).

Then, this past Friday, Britton had a major meltdown. After the Orioles surprisingly rallied from a 3-1 deficit in the ninth inning to take a 7-3 lead over the Braves, Britton entered the game hoping to shut things down. That didn't happen. All six batters reached -- in order: single, double, hit-by-pitch, single, single, double -- and the game was quickly tied at 7. The game-typing double, hit by Nick Markakis on a 93 mph sinker that didn't sink, had to sting (although it was an exciting play, with the potential winning run thrown out at the plate):

Britton didn't get much help from his defense; that second hit, a double to deep center field by Danny Santana, was muffed at the wall by Jones. But Britton was shaky from the start.

It's hard to judge any pitcher on six appearances and just 5.2 innings, but overall, the numbers aren't good. Britton has six strikeouts but five walks. Opposing batters are also finding it a little easier to put the ball in the air against him. Britton's 60% groundball percentage and his 13.3% fly ball percentage would be his lowest and highest, respectively, since 2013.

Any pitcher can have a really bad outing, and in such a small sample of innings, that ugly ninth inning on Friday makes Britton's numbers look worse. But there's a little more to it than that. As usual, Britton has thrown his sinker over 90% of the time since he returned. It's one of the best pitches in baseball, and it's his bread-and-butter pitch. But right now, Britton has an average velocity on his sinker of 94.3 mph. That would be his lowest since 2013 (92.5), when he was still being used as a starting pitcher. Since the full-time switch in 2014, he hasn't been below 96.2 mph.

Interestingly enough, Britton's hardest pitch of 2018 came in that first outing on June 12: 96.5 mph. Since then, he's yet to throw a pitch over 95 mph. When Britton is at his best with his sinker, he's obviously able to get lots of sink but also plenty of horizontal movement. While some more sink has returned in 2018 after a subpar (for him) and injury-filled 2017, Britton's sinker is moving less horizontally than it ever has. He's also spiking his sinker more than usual; the vertical location of the pitch would be his lowest since his rookie season. The velocity isn't there, and neither is the command.

Maybe this is just Britton's natural progression as he begins to round into form. Rupturing an Achilles is a significant injury, and Britton was able to return and pitch in a major league game just five months and 23 days after sustaining the injury. That's incredible. I can't imagine how much work went into returning that fast, and Britton surely seemed to do everything in his power to get back quickly.

Britton and the Orioles both have an extra incentive for him to start pitching better soon. He almost surely isn't part of the team's plans beyond 2018, and the O's need him to start looking like the 2015 or 2016 version so they can get as much as possible in a July trade. And Britton is currently playing for his next contract, so he wants to prove to teams that he's healthy and can still be a dominant closer. It would be impossible for a team that's interested in his services to not have at least some hesitation at the moment.

The hope is that Britton is truly healthy and he'll be able to light up the radar gun soon as he builds up strength. There's a lot counting on it.

Photo: Keith Allison. Stats via FanGraphs and Brooks Baseball.

The Orioles Have Won Three Games in June, so Things Are Looking Up!

The Orioles won a game this week. Just one. It's tough out there, Birdland. Richard Bleier is out for the season with a lat tear. Andrew Cashner is in the infirmary. Chris Davis has been barred from the field by security. Chance Sisco has been bused out of town. As poor of a season as this has been, there always seem to be ways to make it worse.

The dysfunction around Camden Yards is reaching epic proportions. People (Ned Colletti) are being interviewed for positions in the front office, but the supposed head of the front office (Dan Duquette) says it isn't true. Why on earth would fans be concerned that this crew cannot adequately navigate a full-scale rebuild of the franchise? The mind wonders.

At least there's always Manny Mach-- oh god. I told myself I wouldn't cry over baseball. No, not again!

Happy belated Father's Day! We are back with a brand new episode of The Warehouse Podcast. Your support last week was immense. Thank you so much for the downloads, and the subscriptions, and the follows. It means a lot, and it makes doing this show that much more rewarding.

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The more input, the better. If there is something we could be doing better, let us know. But like, you don't have to jerks about, OK? We would love to interact with listeners more often and get some feedback from the semi-sane people that download our inane babble every seven days. Not all heroes wear capes.

Current State Of The Orioles: Really Bad

The Orioles have so many problems that it's exhausting to think about. But, if you want to keep things simple, you can group them into two main categories (without even getting into anything coach or front office related). First, the major league team is in shambles. At 19-47, the Orioles have three fewer wins than any other team. Only one other team, the Royals, has been outscored by more runs (-114 vs. -112). The Orioles are a very bad baseball team that struggles across the board. It's hard to watch.

For reference, the 1988 Orioles (final record: 54-107) earned their 19th win on game 69 (to make them 19-50). They won their 20th game on game 72. This year's Orioles got their 19th win on game 60 (to make them 19-41). Through game 65, they're still sitting on 19 wins.

That leads to the second main issue: the future. The Orioles are not without promising talent in their farm system; however, many of their interesting prospects are not close to ready for the majors. The system also lacks high-end talent. In February, Austin Hays, Chance Sisco, and Ryan Mountcastle all landed somewhere on the notable national prospect lists. Hays was the only one of the three to be named on all five (MLB.com, Baseball America, Keith Law, Baseball Prospectus, and FanGraphs).

Since then, Sisco has graduated to the majors, and while he's held his own in semi-regular work, it would be a stretch to say he looks like anything more than a decent player. He doesn't look like a star. That's not bad, of course; it's just not great.

On Monday, FanGraphs released their updated top 131 prospect list. In February, Hays placed 90th on the list, and that was it for the Orioles. There is not a single O's prospect on this new version. Hays has dropped off entirely because he's struggling this year at Double-A Bowie, with a batting line of .224/.259/.374 (72 wRC+).

Now, the FanGraphs list isn't everything. No prospect list is the end-all, be-all. Mountcastle and maybe another prospect could still land on one or more of the national lists (he was on three last time). But Hays falling back to earth is disappointing and untimely, yet it shows just how much more talent the Orioles need in their farm system. No single player is going to solve this mess. Some things that are happening in the lower levels of the O's system are encouraging -- with, for example, Ryan McKenna, Michael Baumann, Zac Lowther, and others -- but it's not enough.

Almost everyone on this current O's roster should be a trade chip. The Orioles need to do whatever they can to add youth and talent nearly everywhere in the minors. Players that are close to major league ready would be preferred, but teams aren't just giving those prospects away. The O's need high-ceiling talent. They should be able to get a couple of those types by dealing away Manny Machado, Zach Britton, and others. Every possibility should be explored.

In the meantime, enjoy everything Machado, Britton, Adam Jones, and others do in an Orioles uniform before they're gone. And don't take a competitive game, home run, or solid defensive game for granted. One day things will get better for the O's, but it might be a while. Settle in.

Richard Bleier's Run Continues (And A Look Back At Zach Britton's Dominant 2016)

Things are pretty bad in Birdland. But one thing that hasn't been bad: Richard Bleier. Every time Bleier pitches a scoreless inning, things get more ridiculous.

That's because of the following table from the Play Index, which I like to share as much as possible:

Results

Rk	Player	ERA+	IP	R	ER	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%
1	Richard Bleier	255	106.0	30	20	1.70	3.70	11.3%	4.6%
2	Craig Kimbrel	225	485.0	105	96	1.78	1.84	41.9%	9.4%
3	Mariano Rivera	205	1283.2	340	315	2.21	2.76	23.0%	5.6%

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/8/2018.

In case you haven't seen it before, those are pitchers in major league history who have thrown at least 100 innings and have an ERA+ over 200. Yes, Bleier's workload isn't close to Kimbrel or Rivera, but it still seems absurd that he's anywhere near two of the greatest relievers of all time.

And even though Bleier's career workload is not large and no one should expect him to keep being this good, could he also at least have a tiny, tiny chance to approach arguably the greatest relief season of all time? That would be Zach Britton's 2016, when he threw 67 innings and posted an insane 0.54 ERA (and 803 ERA+). Those are both the best marks for any pitcher who's thrown at least 50 innings in a season.

In that record-breaking season, Britton had a 1.42 ERA through 20 innings. In 19.2 innings this season, Bleier has a 0.46 ERA and a 928 ERA+. Britton was much more dominant in how he retired opposing batters, with a GB% of 80 and a 29.1 K%. Bleier, meanwhile, has a 60.7 GB% and a 13.3 K%. Among all pitchers with at least 10 innings pitched this season, Bleier's ERA is second after a trio of pitchers (Andrew Miller, Fernando Romero, and Brian Duensing) who have thrown between 10-12 innings and have yet to allow an earned run.

Bleier will never wow anyone with those strikeout numbers. Somehow, he just keeps getting outs, and it's hard to keep counting on that to happen. It's basically a requirement to say that in every post about Bleier because it's baffling that he's been able to do this for 100+ innings.

Almost no one expects Bleier's run to continue. I don't. Do you? A massive regression has to be coming soon, right? That's how these things usually work. It doesn't make any sense for there not to be some bad performances around the corner. And yet, hopefully he keeps defying the odds, because Bleier's unlikely success is one of the only good things about this season.

What Are The Orioles Doing?

The Orioles always march to the beat of their own drum. During the offseason, that means plenty of interest but not much action, a lot of waiting, and, of course, Rule 5 draft picks. But with Buck Showalter, Dan Duquette, Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Zach Britton, Brad Brach, and others heading into what could be their final seasons in Baltimore, there's more urgency than usual.

That's why, at least in theory, it made sense that the Orioles were rejecting any notions of rebuilding and would instead gear up for one final run. So let's see what they've done so far to reload:

• Acquired OF Jaycob Brugman from the A's for RHP Jake Bray
• Selected 3 pitchers in the Rule 5 draft
• Signed RHP Michael Kelly to a major league deal

The O's have also signed a bunch of players to minor league deals, but that's it. Meanwhile, they missed out on starting pitchers like Tyler Chatwood, Doug Fister, Miles Mikolas, and Mike Fiers; have essentially deemed upgrades like Alex Cobb and maybe Lance Lynn as "too costly" while Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta are certainly out of their price range; wavered on not fielding offers for Machado and Britton but have failed to complete any deals; recently lost Britton for a chunk of the season to a ruptured Achilles tendon; and have to figure out whether Machado plays shortstop or third base if they keep him.

Maybe the only positive developments for the O's this offseason are Kevin Gausman changing his number to honor Roy Halladay and them telling off intolerant people on Twitter.

Should the Orioles push all their chips in and go for it? Should they rebuild? You probably have strong opinions on whether the O's should do one of those things, and you could defend those stances. What you can't defend is the team simply refusing to do either one and continuing to punt on nearly every major decision while only improving the team in the tiniest ways. Under Duquette, the O's have always worked the fringes to improve the team's depth. But depth doesn't matter as much when you have gaping holes in the starting rotation.

Maybe the O's are just laying in the weeds and getting ready to strike. Maybe that means not conveniently using how poorly the Ubaldo Jimenez signing went and adding one of Cobb or Lynn and then another starter or two. Maybe they'd even consider a strong upgrade in the outfield like Lorenzo Cain! It's not like the O's don't have some freed-up money to spend. And that's not even including when MLB owners receive $50-plus million in 2018 from the sale of BAMTech.

But no, that's almost certainly not going to happen. The Orioles are going to do something because they have to, but it's not going to be anything meaningful. If they do go for it, that'll just mean relying on the talent they already have while hoping for bounce-back seasons from Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo, and others. If that sounds depressing, it kind of is. At least the Orioles have some players who are fun to watch.

Time to Waive Zach Britton?

The Orioles were dealt a major blow yesterday.  While working out, Zach Britton ruptured his Achilles tendon, which requires six months of rehabilitation and probably an extended stay in the minors.  The Orioles are looking at their prized closer being gone maybe until August and, not only that, he will be a 12.2 MM hole in their payroll.

Last summer, Britton dealt with injuries that undermined his season and his trade value.  The Orioles banked on him rebounding and either delivering great performances down the stretch or at least rebuilding his trade value.  All that now is lost.  No one can blame the club for this unpredictable turn of events, but it does complicate their situation.  With Britton now coming back so late, what is the club to do.

Option 1
You keep Britton.  You rehabilitate him.  You hope he rebounds and either is a shot in the arm for a competitive Orioles team, a useful August trade piece, or a QO candidate that scores you a draft pick in 2019.

Option 2
You release Britton.  Britton is entitled to a quarter of his arbitration salary.  With a projection of 12.2 MM, that comes to 3.05 MM.  That gives the club an extra 9 MM to do whatever it pleases to do with that newfound cash.  Britton would probably not re-sign with the club.  He would probably sign a deal for five or so MM with the Cubs, Yankees, Astros, or Dodgers.  A club that would bet on him being ready down the line.

For me, option 2 is the way to go.  His appearance for a couple months at the end of the season is not enough of a boost for me to think his inclusion on the roster is worth it.  The 9 MM could be better allocated elsewhere.

Your thoughts?

Trade the Pen: Rusty Trucks Do Not Need Shiny Rims

Let us get one thing quickly out of the way: the Orioles have a few interesting bullpen arms, but they no longer have an elite bullpen.  That good, but not great, pen backs up a starting rotation that currently is filled with craters, whispers, and tissue paper.  The club has announced they are looking for starting pitcher, two to be exact with one being left handed, and could not secure either Tyler Chatwood or Mike Fiers.  Yes, if we take things at face value, Mike Fiers was expected to be half of the starting rotation overhaul.  And, yes, it appears the solution to the fifth slot is internal. Somehow.

And that leads us to this: trade potentially extra weight in the bullpen for starting pitching elsewhere.  That really just boils down to once and potentially still great Zach Britton and once and still potentially very good Brad Brach.  Both can slide into a closer role or a set up job.  Darren O'Day last year effectively pitched to his contract after being a bit subpar in 2016.  With two years and 18 MM coming to him, it seems unlikely that he could bring back much.  Mychal Givens is someone who would be highly desirable to other clubs, but the Orioles still are trying to compete somewhat and that means to me that he remains and takes over the closer position.  Then again, Buck and Duquette are in their final contract years, so maybe they go for broke choosing Britton over Givens.  In this post though, we will assume that the Orioles are acting somewhat rational.

The suitors for Britton and Brach would be as follows.  The Cubs, Dodgers, and Rockies are known to have pinged the Orioles about Zach Britton.  The Mets are known to have inquired on Brad Brach.  The Cardinals are actively looking for late inning help.  The Diamondbacks and Astros are also looking for suitable pairings in their respective pens.  I think we can safely ignore the Nationals as a trading partner even though they are still looking for relief help.  So, who can the Orioles pry from each club?

The Britton Market
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are said to be looking for another starting pitcher, which would make one think they would not have a player available in a trade.  Though it may also suggest that the club is willing to deal out someone like Eddie Butler or Mike Montgomery.  Both have shown promise at times and both are likely strong components of a 2018 bullpen that provide backup options in case they have trouble with a member of their starting rotation.  That said, adding Zach Britton may be a cause worth going after.  The team is often thought to be made of money, but often try to be rather prudent at times.  Britton's salary, along with his uneven 2017, might give some pause.  Brad Brach might be of interest, but the club would likely have to tack something on.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles has eight starting pitchers and a few in their pen capable of starting.  The obvious arms to be dangled would be Scott Kazmir, Brandon McCarthy, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Kenta Maeda, and even Julio Urias who is not held as tightly as he was before the season.  The Dodgers were one of the finalist last summer for Britton before the Orioles ghosted them and they turned their sites on Yu Darvish.  They still have a need for relief arm and have comparable salary ballast to exchange.  Pitchers like Kazmir and McCarthy have injury and physical concerns, so the Orioles might focus on Urias but then settle for Ryu.  Maeda would be a pie in the sky option who has pitched well despite having some potential shoulder concerns when he initially signed.

Colorado Rockies
The Rockies have called to check in with the Orioles and have been aggressively contacting closer arms in the market.  The two arms the Orioles would likely target are Antonio Senzatela and Jeff Hoffman, the pitcher who the Orioles tried to get from the Blue Jays when the Jays wanted Dan Duquette.  Of those two, the rumblings are that the Rockies have considerable doubts about Hoffman, so that could present him as a potential get.  The Rockies have the payroll space to acquire Britton's 12 MM salary, but would probably want the Orioles to buy down on it or to include someone else in the mix like Hunter Harvey or Tanner Scoot but more likely Cody Sedlock or Keegan Akin.

The Brach Market
New York Mets
The Mets seem to always be calling the Orioles about Brad Brach.  The really like him, but do not exactly love him.  So, the market is there, but the market may be somewhat limited in interest.  The Orioles, at this point, are also known to be inquiring on Matt Harvey.  Harvey, the once insanely promising starting pitcher, has fallen in the Mets doghouse on several occasions for reasons often not related to how dreadful he has been the past couple years.  The Mets value him, but seem to prefer to be in someone else's clubhouse while also getting something of similar value without the headaches.  A Brach for Harvey deal straight up seems to be a decent match between the two, but I imagine that the Mets also really like Givens and would try to pry him from the team.

St. Louis Cardinals
The front office seems to think that Oh's troubles last year spelled post season issues for the club, so they have been active in the closer market.  Looking at their starting pitching situation, they are not really filled with options.  The only one I see that could fit is the 23 year old Jack Flaherty, but I think that is a stretch.  He is a hard throwing righthander who has glided through the minors.  His ceiling is limited, but that is a good sixth or seventh option to have.  I figured you would need to see a Brach plus a prospect trade to pry him from the Cardinals and they would have to really want Brach, which is something I have not heard at all.

Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks are also looking to create an intimidating bullpen and have some cost concerns, so a pitcher like Brach fits right into their wheelhouse.  That said, there are not any easy matches here for the Orioles needs.  One interesting name would be Shelby Miller.  He had Tommy John surgery last May, but has experienced an accelerated rehabilitation and is already throwing well off flat ground.  It might be difficult for him to make opening day, but he may be an option for May.  Miller will make about the same as Brach in arbitration this year and has one more team controlled year for 2019.  This might make a lot of sense.

Houston Astros
Last summer, after a great deal of hemming and hawing over whether Zach Britton was really worth his deal, the Astros were in on him and were waiting for the deal to be finalized.  But, it was not.  In the aftermath, the portion of the front office that was against the move felt pretty vindicated yet they still recognize that the pen was a weakness that needs to be addressed.  Without copious amounts of money at their disposal, Brad Brach may look like a good match for them.  A piece supposedly in the deal was Francis Martes, who is a decent prospect who lost a bit of luster last season.  I could see a potential one for one deal on this or the Orioles would have to hand over an additional low minors lottery ticket.

What Happens?
I have no idea.  However, I think you could see a number of ways the Orioles could deplete their bullpen while securing starting pitching.  Doing so would likely decrease their payroll by an additional 10 MM or so, perhaps opening up space to sign one more starting pitcher or to find a few veteran arms in the pen.

Rolling the dice, let us say the Orioles were able to deal Zach Britton and maybe some international bonus pool money to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Julio Urias.  People will be shocked that Urias, who was recently a highly touted pitching prospect, would be gotten for only one year of Zach Britton.  However, the Dodgers figured Urias was not a major piece moving forward and that Britton would bring them closer to the World Series.  The Orioles then press their luck with Urias and hopes he is more than the frustrating late inning relievers some scouts are beginning to think he is.  He also ticks the box for a left hander.  On the Brach market, the Orioles trade contract for contract and acquire Matt Harvey from the Mets for a one year rental.  They see a lot to like, such as the low cost for a potentially useful starter, and figure he is worth the performance and injury concern for just one year.

Now, the club has a bullpen problem having dealt out two of their four best relievers.  However, they have an additional 12 MM from dealing Britton and a lot more from not having to sign a free agent starter.  What do they do?  To replace Brach, they sign Brandon Kinstler to a three year, 21 MM deal.  To replace Britton, they sign Tony Watson for two years and 15 MM.  At that point, they probably have enough money to sign someone like Andrew Cashner or Jaime Garcia.

OK, Duquette.  Do that.  Convert your potentially elite bullpen into a potentially decent starting rotation with some dependable arms.

Orioles 2018 Blueprint Follow-Up: Why I Decided to Non-Tender Zach Britton

Zach Britton (photo via Keith Allison)

A couple of weeks ago, some of the writers here at Camden Depot went through our annual exercise of outlining our vision of how the Orioles should approach the offseason. My blueprint was the first to be published, and within it, I made the somewhat controversial decision to non-tender Baltimore closer Zach Britton. By doing so, the move saved me $12.2 million in payroll, but significantly weakened my proposed bullpen. For our fictional exercise, I thought the move was necessary to make the club as competitive as it could be for the 2018. And instead of getting into all of the reasons as to why I thought it was best to non-tender Britton within that piece (essentially inserting 1,000+ word tangent), I promised that I would post a follow up article detailing my reasons for doing so. Well, here it is.

With one more season of Manny Machado and Adam Jones, I wanted to put the best team possible on the field to compete in 2018, without much consideration as to what the team would look like in the following season. To do accomplish that, the two main things I was focused on in my blueprint was strengthening the bench with players who could play multiple positions and remaking the starting rotation. A more complete bench was the easy task, and in my view that goal was accomplished by signing Jon Jay, Howie Kendrick, and Cliff Pennington.

There is no getting around the fact that the 2017 Baltimore starting rotation was terrible. The only good thing about them was that the 3 worst performers were all going to be free agents.

2017 Baltimore Orioles SP Ranks

Like many of the other writers, I believed the lack of quality starting pitchers in the minor league system meant that it was essential to sign at least 3 starting pitchers. I believed that the only way to significantly improve the rotation was to get the best starting pitcher available, and in my mind that was Yu Darvish. With Darvish costing $17.3 million per year (and considering all the other areas this team needed to improve as well as a limited budget), my decision essentially boiled down to whether I would want Britton or Darvish. I chose Darvish.

The main reason I felt why I ad to go with Darvish was due to just how BAD the Orioles starting rotation was in 2017/could be in 2018. The Orioles have proven that they don’t need a great rotation to be successful and make the playoffs. However, the 2017 rotation was so bad (combined with the lack of internal options), I believed that anything less than Darvish would be applying a band-aid to a wound that required 40 stitches. And while he’s looked at as an injury risk, he’s coming off a sub-par season, where he was still worth 3.5 fWAR (3.9 bWAR). He’s averaged 4.1 fWAR (4.2 bWAR) per 180 IP over the course of his career. To put that into perspective, the Orioles haven’t had a starting pitcher eclipse the 3.0 fWAR mark since Erik Bedard did it in 2006 (4.6) and 2007 (5.0).

Comparing average Yu Darvish against Zach Britton at his absolute best (2.5 fWAR during the 2016 season), the Orioles get an additional 1.6 wins for the added cost of $5 million. I realize that Darvish would come with an additional 3 years of commitment according to our BORAS projection system, but as I mentioned, I was only concerned with 2018. Granted that average Darvish versus the best Britton argument doesn’t work when using bWAR bWAR (which based on run prevention instead of FIP), but what is the likelihood we see 2016 Britton again in 2018? It’s not impossible, but coming off an injury-plagued season with good (but not great) numbers, I think it’s highly unlikely.

Britton missed most of May, all of June, and the beginning of July due to a strained left forearm. He was then shut down for the rest of the season after his September 18th appearance due to an MCL sprain in his left knee, an injury that was serious enough for him to receive a stem cell injection. When he did pitch, he was effective, but certainly not his usual self, finishing with career worst strikeout and walk rates (since being transitioned to the bullpen full time).

Obviously I don’t know exactly how bad either of those injuries are, but that forearm injury (combined with his performance) was a big reason why teams weren’t offering a trade package the Orioles liked at the deadline. Along with the knee injury, he didn’t do anything the last two months of the season to bring his trade value back up. When you combine the injuries, the performance, and the assumption that he’ll make $12.2 million in his 4th and final year of arbitration, I don’t believe that he has much trade value. This kind of torpedoes the idea of tendering him a contract and trading him later in the offseason. If the Orioles couldn’t find an attractive offer at the 2017 trade deadline, they’re certainly not going to find a better one this offseason. Furthermore, I don’t think his value will be that high at the 2018 trade deadline if the Orioles are out of it. The only way the Orioles get a good package for him is if he pitches like he did in 2016 again and there’s a desperate contender who needs a closer. Again, that scenario is possible, just not probable.

The need to greatly improve the starting rotation, combined with the injury questions and decreased trade value of Zach Britton, led to my decision to non-tender him. I ultimately thought the $12.2 million saved could be better spent to make the team better in 2018. So if I were actually sitting in the GM chair in real life, would I still take the same course of action? Probably not (actually, almost definitely not).

For the purposes of our blueprint exercise, I stand by my decision. But I don’t think it’s a smart one to make in real life. And that’s not because the fans would probably be pissed about non-tendering a favorite (although that should be given consideration as well). The real reason you don’t non-tender Zach Britton is because it’s not guaranteed that you’ll be able to reinvest those savings into players that will improve the team. The readers who commented on my blueprint started to hit on this topic a bit. Yu Darvish, Alex Cobb, and all of the other players we proposed to sign are human beings. They have a choice of where they want to play. If they don’t want to play in Baltimore, they’re not going to sign with Baltimore. The blueprint exercise takes that choice away from them. Non-tendering Britton in real life could very possibly yield a team without Zach Britton and an extra $12.2 million. That may be ok for the owners of the team, but from the perspective of being competitive, the Orioles would be decidedly worse off.

Blueprint For The 2018 Orioles (Option #1): So Yu Think Yu Can Pitch

Well, we’re finally here. The 2018 season has long been considered the likely last year that the Orioles will have a legitimate chance at competing for a playoff spot with their core players for the foreseeable future. Maybe “core players” casts too large of a net. This idea largely centers around the fact that, as of now, Manny Machado and Adam Jones will be free agents at this time next year, and those are two players that are difficult to replace. Though with several players in the minors taking big steps forward this past season, the post 2018 landscape may not be as bleak as it once seemed.

With that being said, having a (mostly) consistent 6+ WAR third baseman and an All-Star centerfielder on your roster doesn’t happen very often. So with the two of them possibly departing after the upcoming season, it’s extremely important to pull out all of the stops and make the 2018 Orioles as competitive as possible. And that’s what the Camden Depot writers (and some of our readers) will be trying to accomplish over the next week or two in our annual “Orioles Blueprint” series. I’m up first, but before we get to my proposal, let’s go over a couple of things.

Jon laid out the rules last week (along with Camden Depot's BORAS salary projections for pitchers and hitters). Here’s a quick recap:

1. No trades
2. Camden Depot’s BORAS salary projection model will be used to sign free agents
3. MLB Trade Rumor arbitration projections are used for arbitration eligible players
4. All team-controlled non-arbitration eligible players are assumed to have a salary $550,000

Budget: $155 million

Between Adam Jones, Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo, and Darren O’Day, the Orioles have a total of $53.33 million in salary committed for the 2018 season.

Remaining Funds: $101.67 million

Team Options

First thing is first; there are some decisions to be made on a couple of options. One of the assumptions we made was that Welington Castillo would decline his player option, making him a free agent. If anyone wants him on the 2018 Orioles, they’ll need to pay him market price.

J.J. Hardy has a $14 million team option that would have vested if he received 600 PA’s in 2017 or 1,150 PA’s combined between 2016 and 2017. He reached neither. Hardy has had a great career in Baltimore, but there is no chance I’m picking up that option. Declining the option means I buy him out for $2 million.

Wade Miley also has a team option for $12 million. With the free agent market for starters the way it is, I did not think Miley would have to perform all that well for me to pick up his option. He ended up not even meeting the low bar I set. Fortunately, his buy out of $500,000 is cheap, so declining his option was a relatively easy decision for me.

Remaining Funds: $99.17 million

Arbitration Eligible Players

Seven Orioles players are eligible for arbitration. I’ll be tendering contracts to all of them in 2018 except…Zach Britton. I know, it sounds crazy, and I actually can’t believe that I am typing these words right now. Don’t get me wrong, I still think Zach Britton is a good pitcher, but there are a lot of reasons why I decided to not tender him a contract this offseason. I am planning to explain this decision in more detail in a follow up post. In short, it boiled down to my opinion that his trade value has been greatly diminished coupled with the thought that the extra $12.2 million saved can be put to better use.

Remaining Funds: $56.27 million

Qualifying Offers

None of the impending free agents are even close to being in consideration for a qualifying offer. This is the easiest decision of this entire exercise.

2018 Roster

The figure below will be the starting point for my Orioles blueprint.

As you can see, there are quite a lot of positions to fill (3 SP’s, 5 RP’s, 2 corner OF’s, 1 catcher, and 3 bench spots). Of course, some of them will be filled with players who are under team control and are not yet eligible for arbitration. I’ll outline that in the upcoming sections.

Before moving on, let's factor in Dylan Bundy's assumed $1.50 million salary for 2018.

Remaining Funds: $54.77 million

Infield

With the (pretty great) acquisition of Tim Beckham before the 2017 trade deadline, the 2018 infield was pretty much set. While I think Chance Sisco (probably) showed enough to make the opening day roster as the second catcher, I wouldn’t be opposed to sending him down to AAA to start the season. In the event of that, I would sign a strong framer/defender (someone like Rene Rivera) on a non-roster invite to spring training for a low base salary (< $1 million) if they make the major league club. For now, though, we’ll pencil in Caleb Joseph as the starting catcher to begin the season, with Sisco ($550,000) getting semi-regular playing time as the backup until at some point their roles hopefully reverse.

You can swap Davis and Trumbo between 1B and DH. While Davis grades out as the better defender there over his career, Jon will occasionally mention on Twitter that Trumbo hits much better when he’s playing the field (Matt K. also posted about it).

Remaining Funds: $54.22 million

Outfield

Trey Mancini had a great year offensively and did not embarrass himself out in left field. At an assumed cost of $550,000, he’s going to be the starting left-fielder.

Austin Hays had a much better 2017 season than anyone probably thought he would have. Putting aside his small sample size struggles during his brief cup of coffee in the majors last year, I think it would be asking too much for him to come up and be the team’s everyday right fielder. I think he needs to spend a little bit of time in AAA before he’s ready to be in Baltimore full time. With that in mind, I would fill the right field position with Jon Jay. I actually advocated for the Orioles to sign Jay in my blueprint for 2017. Here’s what I said:

“…Jay is essentially your league average hitter (career 106 wRC+) and fielder (career -1 Defensive Run Saved), can play all 3 outfield positions adequately…”

Jay ended up signing a 1-year deal with the Cubs last offseason and put up another average season (this is a reminder that average is good). Jay’s going to play the 2018 season at age 33, so his defense is going to start trending slightly below average, but BORAS only sees a 1-year deal for $9.2 million for him, so there is limited risk in signing him. And if Hays plays well enough to get called up early in the season, Jay can easily shift into a supporting role, where his league average bat can adequately fill in at any outfield position.

Remaining Funds: $44.47 million

Pitching Staff

I may be publishing my blueprint first, but I think it’s safe to say that everyone’s blueprint will be focusing mainly on starting pitching. And that’s not just a coincidence, as the Baltimore rotation was absolutely dismal in 2017, ranking 27th in fWAR (29th in bWAR), 30th in ERA, 28th in FIP, 28th in innings pitched, etc, etc, etc. After declining Miley’s option, I’m left with Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy as my only 2 starters. There are (in my opinion, very questionable) internal options to fill those slots, and while at least one of them may emerge as a decent end of the rotation starter, I don’t want to go into the 2017 season depending on any of them. I’m ideally looking for an ace, a mid-rotation starter, and a flyer on a high risk starter.

Yu Darvish (photo via Keith Allison)

There are 2 pitchers on the free agent market that come close to being called an ace. One is Jake Arrieta, who is in no way coming back to Baltimore. The other is Yu Darvish, and he is my main target. BORAS projects Darvish to land a contract of 4 years and $69.26 million ($17.31 million per year)*. Darvish had a rough second half of 2017, which (as Jon noted in the BORAS projection for pitchers), significantly hurt his free agent standing in our projection system’s eyes. Other than a spike in his BABIP and HR rate in July and August, the rest of his peripherals appear to be in line with the more successful months of his season, so I’m not too worried.

For a mid-rotation starter, I would target Alex Cobb, who, according to BORAS, can be signed for 3 years and $31.14 million ($10.38 million per year)*. Performance wise, Cobb has been a really dependable middle of the rotation starter since coming into the big leagues in 2011. Outside of an injury shortened 2016 where he pitched only 22 innings (he also missed all of 2015 due to a torn UCL requiring Tommy John surgery), Cobb has averaged 2.8 fWAR per 180 innings pitched. The problem is, Cobb’s never reached 180 innings in a season, so there is some risk in this signing (he had a career high of 179.1 IP in 2017). Cobb is not a high strikeout pitcher, but he doesn’t walk many either and for the most part keeps the ball on the ground, which is good when one pitches half their games at Camden Yards.

I’m going to fill out the starting rotation by taking a flyer on Derek Holland for a BORAS projected 1 year deal for $1.5 million. Holland has been both injured and mostly ineffective since 2014. A spike in his home run rate and an inability to find the striekzone (leading to a 2017 walk rate of 12%) led to a 2017 where he was nearly an entire win worse than replacement level. However, I’m hoping I can get a little bit of productiveness out of the 32-year-old left-hander. I’m not expecting him to return to his 2013 form, but it’s not crazy to think he could provide some production as a 5th starter. During the 2016 season, he was worth 0.9 fWAR in 107.1 innings pitched when his walk and home run rates were more in line with his career levels. He doesn’t have to be great, and even if he’s terrible, the $1.5 million guaranteed will easily allow the team to cut their losses if needed. In that event, Baltimore can use one of Gabriel Ynoa, Jayson Aquino, Alec Asher, or Miguel Castro to fill the 5th spot in the rotation.

In the bullpen, I’ve got Brad Brach closing and Darren O’Day setting up. As in years past, I’m filling in the remainder of the relief corps with internal options making the league minimum. Mychal Givens, Miguel Castro, and Richard Bleier have certainly earned spots in the bullpen based on their 2017 performance (although Castro and Bleier’s peripherals do worry me). I’ll go with Donnie Hart as my second left-handed pitcher. Gabriel Ynoa is out of options, so he’ll likely get the last spot in the bullpen as a long man (I’d rather keep him as starting pitching depth than risk losing him to waivers). Other internal options such as Tanner Scott, Alec Asher, and Chris Lee can be in the mix as well. I’ll admit, that group does not inspire a lot of confidence, but bullpens can be fickle and it’s the one place where you can find something that sticks if you throw enough at the wall. With that in mind, I’m also handing out a bunch of non-roster invites to spring training to flawed relievers.

Remaining Funds: $12.53 million

Bench

We need 3 players to round out the bench. There is no real infield depth, so finding an infielder will be a priority. Furthermore, unless you want to count Mark Trumbo, there isn’t really much outfield depth either. I’m going to use the bulk of my remaining dollars to sign Howie Kendrick, who BORAS projects can be acquired for 1 year and $10.6 million. Kendrick solves some of the depth problem by being able to adequately play both infield and outfield corner positions, as well as his natural position of second base. Additionally, he’s a career 107 wRC+ hitter, who just finished up a very productive season at the plate, hitting .315/.368/.475. Of course, that came in only 334 plate appearances, as Kendrick has been somewhat of injury prone the last couple of seasons. Hopefully playing the role of part-time super utility player (something he’s done the last 2 year) will help keep him healthy.

The next bench spot goes to Anthony Santander over Joey Rickard. While I think Rickard can be a useful player, I think Santander has more promise, and I’d be interested to see if he can fulfill some of that. Plus, as a Rule 5 draft pick who spent most of the 2017 season on the 60-day DL, Santander needs to be on the active roster in 2018 for 44 days before he can be optioned to the minor leagues. The Orioles have stuck with him this long, I think it makes sense to get to the finish line.

The last bench spot should go to someone who can play shortstop, as currently, the backup shortstop options are moving Manny Machado or Jonathan Schoop off of their positions. I don’t think there is an internal option here, and without much money left, I’ll need to take the cheap route. I’ll sign Cliff Pennington, who will get a 1 year contract for $800,000 if he makes the team out of spring training. Pennington isn’t much of a hitter (career 79 wRC+), but not only can he play an average shortstop (career +3 DRS in nearly 5,000 innings), but can also play an average or better 3B and 2B as well, giving Buck Showalter a little more flexibility when giving guys some extra rest.

Remaining Funds: $580,000

Conclusion

Here’s the final tally:
OF Jon Jay – 1 year, $9.20 million
SP Yu Darvish – 4 years, $69.26 million
SP Alex Cobb – 3 years, $31.14 million
SP Derek Holland – 1 year, $1.50 million
UTIL Howie Kendrick – 1 year, $10.60 million
INF Cliff Pennington – NRI (1 year, $800,000 if makes team)

I always love doing this exercise because it demonstrates just how difficult it can be to try and build a winning team while sticking to a realistic budget. Sometimes tough decisions need to be made. It was a difficult decision to non-tender Zach Britton, but with the starting pitching being as bad as it was, I felt that reallocating the $12.2 million owed to Britton was needed in order for me to adequately address the holes in the starting rotation and outfield/bench.

*Author's Note: The original version of this post used incorrect/outdated BORAS projected contracts for Yu Darvish and Alex Cobb. Their projected salaries have been updated. As a result of this change,  there was not enough money remaining to sign SP Francisco Liriano. Instead, Derek Holland was signed as the starting pitcher characterized as a high risk flyer. The paragraph on Liriano has been replaced by one discussing Holland.

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Postscript: I realize that my blueprint this year is not as realistic as some of the blueprints I have completed prior to previous seasons. I am under no sort of impression that the Orioles would even dream of non-tendering Zach Britton this offseason. I also think that Darvish may get more than what BORAS projects for him (possibly Cobb as well), which likely puts him out of range for the Orioles, considering the other holes they need to fill.

Having said that, a more realistic option of my blueprint would be to tender Britton a contract ($12.2 million) and not sign Darvish. The extra $5+ million would then be used to sign someone more dependable than Holland, possibly Clayton Richard (2 years, $17.50 million) or Jason Vargas (2 years, $17.20 million)...or it can be used for a more attractive offer for Alex Cobb. In this scenario, the 5th spot in the rotation is open for someone in the Asher, Aquino, Ynoa, Castro group to win out of spring training.

The Future of Zach Britton

In case you hadn't heard, the Orioles didn't trade Zach Britton. Despite what seemed like strong interest from multiple teams, most notably the Astros, the non-waiver trade deadline passed and Britton stayed in Baltimore, gaining a save and win in the week since. Details surrounding the deal have begun to leak out, with multiple reports saying that the Astros may have been a bit stingy with their prospects, and as such the Orioles decided to keep their dominant closer.

But, for how long? While the Orioles have played well since the deadline and find themselves in the midst of the wild card hunt despite what remains a sub-.500 record, it seems Britton's future with the club is still very much in doubt. MASN's Roch Kubatko has repeatedly questioned the likelihood of the team agreeing to a substantial raise for Britton in arbitration, which brings up inevitable speculation that the team may yet end up dealing him before the 2018 season.

The issue seems to revolve around the fact that Britton, who is making $11.4 million in his second to last year of arbitration, may be in line to make as much as $12-13 million next season. This would track with raises for guys like Aroldis Chapman ($3 million raise in his last arbitration season), Wade Davis ($2 million), Greg Holland (nearly $4 million, but was non-tendered leading into his last arbitration year), and Kenley Jansen ($4 million). Given the number of holes the team is facing in the rotation as well as other arbitration raises to players like Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, and Brad Brach, there may be concern that spending top dollar for one year on Britton doesn't quite fit into the budget. Indeed, spending potentially 10% of the payroll on a closer may be unpalatable, especially if the team fails to make the postseason this year.

The choices, then, are: tender Britton a deal with an almost certain salary increase and keep him, tender him a contract and trade him, or non-tender him. Kubatko's reporting hasn't explicitly entertained the notion that Britton will be non-tendered, but if front office misgivings about a salary increase for Britton are public knowledge it could torpedo any leverage that the club would have to make a deal immediately after the season. Given the repeated insistence by the front office that the Orioles are attempting to compete in 2018, however, it also seems unlikely that the team will want to move Britton for less than they could have gotten at the deadline.

That said, it is almost certainly the case that Britton's injury plagued season had something to do with the less than stellar trade offers. Over his last four outings as of August 6, however, he's been his usual fantastic self, throwing 3 1/3 perfect innings. His velocity has returned and he looks like the Britton of old, just maybe a couple of weeks later than would have been ideal. If he really is back, there is going to be some serious regret on the part of contenders that could have had him if the offer had been better.

Continued outstanding performance will certainly keep his trade value up, even though relievers historically have been valued more highly at the deadline than in the off season, but anything less than a dominant August and September will raise very interesting questions. Certainly, the idea that the Orioles would simply non-tender Britton and get nothing in return seems totally insane, but the fact that there isn't an iron clad commitment to pay Britton an expected arbitration raise opens up the remote possibility that it could happen. If teams sense that Britton may be non-tendered, the likelihood that the Orioles would get anything approaching the return they were offered at the deadline seems implausible. What both Britton and the Orioles really need is for him to continue to pitch well, which would open up multiple options in the off season, maybe even including signing him long term.

Even if he doesn't pitch great down the stretch, however, it isn't impossible to imagine that teams will be interested in him on a one year deal worth something like $14 million. Zach Britton, even at that price, surely does not have negative value. The Orioles wouldn't have much trouble moving him regardless, but of course the return could be much, much lower than someone with Britton's talent level deserves. So, the solution is: Pitch great and things will be fine! Maybe I should just send the whole team a memo...

The One Move the Orioles Should Really Make Today

The MLB non-waiver trade deadline is today, but you probably knew that already. Despite some rumblings that the Orioles were on the fence about being buyers or sellers, we here at the Depot have pretty much been on the “seller” side of things for some time. And as Jon explained last week, being 3.5 games back with 6 teams in front of you is not an easy task to overcome, and it’s a big reason why sites such as Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus have the Orioles odds of making playoffs (in any form) so low.

Is a mid-level veteran rotation arm really going to move the needle on this team and propel them to a wild card spot? No, it won’t. It will help (in the case of the Jeremy Hellickson trade, it helps in providing innings), but the team would also need improvement from all of their core players, specifically the starting rotation. So the Orioles should be selling and the fact that we’ve made it this far without any moves has to be a little troubling (again, I’m not counting Hellickson). But fear not, as of the time of this posting (9 AM ET), there is still 7 hours for the team to come to its senses and deal some players for something in return.

The players who are set to become free agents after the season are the obvious places to start, especially considering that the team has plans on competing in 2018. While there are 7 players set to enter free agency in the offseason (including Welington Castillo, who has a $7 million player option), none are likely to bring back returns that will help Baltimore next year or in the future.

Minimal Return

• Seth Smith
• Welington Castillo
• Hyun-Soo Kim

Probably More Valuable to Orioles Considering How Little the Return Would Be

• Chris Tillman (someone needs to pitch innings)
• Ryan Flaherty

DFA/Release Candidates

• Ubaldo Jimenez
• Craig Gentry

Sure the Orioles could (i.e. should) also look to clear the salary owed to Mark Trumbo, Chris Davis, and/or Darren O’Day, but their combination of performance and remaining money owed doesn’t lead one to believe that anyone would be willing to take them, even for minimal return. So, if the Orioles are planning on being competitive in 2018 (which, in my opinion is debatable), the one player they absolutely need to trade today before the deadline is Zach Britton.

While it appears that the Orioles will not lose much from their free agents, they will have plenty of holes to fill. And as we’ve discussed before on this site, there isn’t anything in the high minors ready to contribute next year (if you’re a believer in Austin Hays and Ryan Mountcastle, I think the best case scenario is they can play their way to Baltimore after the 2018 All-Star break). The Orioles will need to fill (at least) 2 rotation spots, a SS (or 3B depending on where they decide to play Manny Machado), an upgrade in one (if not 2) outfield spots, and possibly even another catcher. Those holes can’t all be filled via free agency, and even if they could, it’s unlikely the team would spend enough for the team to be markedly improved.

Zach Britton is the one player that the Orioles can trade at the deadline whose return could fill one or two of those holes in 2018. Granted, it’s unlikely that he’ll bring back a superstar on the cusp of a major league call-up, but a package of 1 or 2 high minors prospects who could be solid contributors and 1 or 2 well-regarded prospects in the low minors is reasonable. If the Orioles aren’t going to trade Machado, then Britton is the one guy who can bring back some talent that can help the team sooner rather than later.

Barring any sort of injury, Britton’s value shouldn’t decline between now and the offseason, so it’s true that the Orioles could wait to get a package they like until then, but I do believe the time is now to trade Britton. He is the kind of elite bullpen arm that literally every contender could use, and the presence of Britton even on an already GREAT bullpen, makes that team much more dangerous in the postseason. And while there may be more teams looking for Britton’s services in the offseason, I think the Orioles can capitalize on some trade deadline desperation and sell Britton as someone who can impact 2 seasons.

Obviously, if Baltimore doesn’t get a deal that they like, they shouldn’t accept a deal just for the sake of accepting it. And in fact, with Britton’s injury earlier this season, some teams may be skeptical of whether or not Britton is healthy, which would be a cause of concern in acquiring him (another may be his salary). However, based on what Britton has shown since returning from injury, he appears to be pretty similar to what he was last year. The time to trade Zach Britton is today, and while losing him may hurt, the one thing the Orioles have been good at is finding cheap and effective relief arms. Britton makes every team in contention much better, and trading him is the best chance the Orioles have to give this group of players one last championship run in 2018.

Orioles Face Crucial Decisions On Manny Machado And Zach Britton

Are you expecting the Orioles to make any major splashes around the trade deadline? I'm not. I can't see the Orioles throwing in the towel even if they're within striking distance of a playoff spot, and I don't believe they'll trade away Manny Machado. Perhaps the Orioles could move Zach Britton, since they've shown a willingness in the past to trade away an expensive closer (Jim Johnson). But that deal also happened in the offseason and involved a less talented pitcher.

I wouldn't hesitate to trade Britton for a lucrative haul of prospects, but there are worse things than not giving up on the rest of 2017 and 2018. The 2017 version of the Orioles (42-46, -78 run differential) is underwhelming, but if you squint hard enough, you can see how they could return to their winning ways next season. These are their scheduled free agents of note:

Ubaldo Jimenez
Chris Tillman
Seth Smith
Hyun Soo Kim
Ryan Flaherty

J.J. Hardy has a $14 million club option ($2 million buyout), Wade Miley has a $12 million club option ($500,000 buyout), and Welington Castillo has a $7 million player option (you know, completely different than an opt-out clause).

Are you that worried about losing those players? You shouldn't be. Maybe you would be if the production levels for Hardy and Tillman hadn't dropped off precipitously this season, but, well, they did.

Unfortunately, even if the Orioles bring Miley back next season, they'll still need to add a couple of starting pitchers, along with a shortstop (or at least someone to play second base, shortstop, or third base if they juggle infield positioning) and a corner outfielder or two (and that's just the bare minimum). That's not the easiest thing to do with about $30 or $40 million to spend, depending on payroll.

Regardless of roster construction, there are major decisions that must be made. What happens with Buck Showalter and Dan Duquette? Like Machado, their contracts expire after 2018. It would be less than ideal for Duquette to be the one shaping the future of the O's if he's not in the organization's long-term plans. Showalter's best fit is in the dugout, and any potential shift to the front office would mean the O's need a new manager and still leave plenty of questions. Who knows at this point what Showalter even wants. With Duquette, we've seen that he has a desire to move on, at least for a higher-ranking position.

As good as Britton is, the real issue is how all of this affects Machado. Maybe Peter Angelos and co. intend to let him play out his deal before throwing everything they have at him to entice him to stay. That would be pretty similar to what happened with Chris Davis (so much deferred money!), except Machado could very well be headed for a contract worth twice as much or more. Extending Machado in the offseason would be wonderful, but he's so close to free agency that there's essentially no chance of that happening. So how much faith do you have in the Orioles outspending MLB's richest teams for one of the game's best players?

You get why ownership would want to wait, both because they want to hold on to any chance of competing and Duquette's and Showalter's statuses are unclear. Orioles ownership is also seemingly opposed to taking the necessary steps to implement a full rebuild, so clinging to even minuscule playoff chances might seem more enticing than having no real plan and just hoping things work out for the best.

Waiting, though, is fine sometimes, and it might look even better because of Machado's offensive struggles and Britton's recent return from injury. But no matter what, these are decisions that could lengthen the time between this current run of competitiveness and the next one. An Orioles team without Machado is not as exciting, but there still would be a path to success. Letting him play out his contract and then having him walk for nothing not only leaves a crater in the infield, but also in the minors where an influx of talent could help immensely.

These are not easy decisions. These are crucial decisions that will shape the Orioles for years to come. It's hard not to think this is a lose-lose situation. You can faintly see a path to success in all this, but you wouldn't count on it. Kind of like the 2017 Orioles.

Top 5 Orioles Trade Chips

Thanks to some home runs and good relief pitching, the Orioles pulled out a one-run win last night to get back to .500. Close wins are still wins, and it's too early to completely write off the O's.

Still, the 2017 season has gone south for the Orioles in a major way. If they were just losing a bunch of close games, that would be one thing. That's not the case, though, as both injuries and poor play across the board have resulted in the O's currently looking up at three teams in the American League East. Additionally, the Orioles now have a run differential of -56, which is second worst in the American League and fifth worst in all of baseball. The Orioles have some serious problems, and some of them are not fixable.

Any rational-minded O's fan knew this squad had a limited window to compete, and it very well may have slammed shut. We will find out soon whether the Orioles can stay within striking distance of the playoff race, and they'll come to a crossroads on how to proceed with this group of players. It'll either be time to push major decisions on players like Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, and Zach Britton to the offseason, or to meet this organization's problems head-on and see what the Orioles can really acquire at the trade deadline by dangling some of their best players.

Let's note two things first. First, I do not expect the Orioles to trade Machado or Schoop this season. Maybe falling way out of the race would change that, but I'd still be stunned. I also do not think ownership will pony up the cash required to keep a superstar talent like Machado, but you could certainly argue they shouldn't do that anyway. There aren't many players like Machado out there, but there also aren't many mid- or small-market clubs who could pay an enormous amount of money to Machado while also paying a huge chunk of change (though less enormous than Machado) to Chris Davis and still be able to put the requisite pieces around them. Doing something like that would require a lot of young, cheap talent, which the Orioles don't have right now.

Second, you can't ignore the contract situations of Dan Duquette and Buck Showalter. Their deals both expire after 2018. Do you really want Duquette orchestrating a tear-down if he's not going to be here soon? And if you jettison Duquette, what about Showalter? An incoming general manager would probably want to pick his own manager, though the Orioles don't really work that way (Showalter was already in place as manager when Duquette was hired as executive vice president of baseball operations). Perhaps the Orioles would just promote from within anyway (obligatory Brady Anderson mention). Would Showalter be fine with that and does he still want to manage; or is he more interested in a front office role? These are all important questions, and I fully expect the Orioles to punt on them until the offseason.

If the Orioles were to be fully active in the trade market, though, how would their trade chips rank? Many of them don't look as good as they did before the season, but let's take a look at the top five:

1. Manny Machado
Jon's value approximation: $42M (based on 1.5 years, 8 projected WAR, $22M in salary)
Potential trade partner: Astros
Potential price: A lot
Potential deal: Machado for Alex Bregman, Francis Martes, Franklin Perez, Forrest Whitley, and Colin Moran

Machado isn't hitting up to his abilities (last night's two-homer, 4-4 game was a good sign, though), but there's no doubting his talent. He's an elite defensive third baseman, an above-average defender at shortstop if a team wants to use him there, and his offensive struggles will only last for so long. Machado would be a game-changer for any team looking for a significant upgrade for the rest of this season. That team could keep him through 2018, his last year of arbitration, or flip him in the offseason.

In all likelihood, the O's won't be able to keep Machado in Baltimore, and while dealing Machado would be difficult to stomach, it could also be a way to replenish a farm system in serious need of top-level talent. Players like Machado don't become available often, and the price to acquire him would and should be enormous.

2. Jonathan Schoop
Jon's value approximation: $36M (based on 2.5 years, 6 projected WAR, $20M in salary)
Potential trade partner: Unclear
Potential price: Top 25-50 pitcher and B-level hitter or 50-100 hitter and 50-100 pitcher

Britton probably would have gone here a few months ago, except he now has a forearm injury that's caused two trips to the disabled list this season. The Orioles and Britton have taken a more patient approach this time after an earlier setback, and he very well may be fine and look like the Britton of old when he is scheduled to return in a couple weeks. But that injury cloud matters, and maybe the O's couldn't get as much as they'd like.

Meanwhile, there's Schoop, who seems to have taken a much-needed step forward offensively. He's walking more than ever, chasing less often, and being much more selective. Because of Machado's struggles, Schoop has arguably been the team's best position player so far.

One the one hand, Schoop is 25 and a homegrown talent, and you'd like to keep those guys around (especially when they're showing promise). On the other hand, the Orioles, as if often the case, did not lock Schoop up to any kind of team-friendly extension. He has two arbitration-eligible years left, making him a free agent in 2020. He's going to get more expensive in 2018 and 2019, and there's no guarantee he sticks around beyond that.

On top of that, he may need to move off of second base soon. There's no doubting the strength of Schoop's arm, but his range may be becoming an issue. Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating both have him as a far below average defender this year, and there have been more than a handful of groundballs that have bounced off his glove or escaped his reach that a second baseman with average range would have gobbled up.

If the Orioles aren't going to explore an extension, then it's time to start thinking about what he could bring back in a trade.

3. Zach Britton
Jon's value approximation: $12M (based on 1.5 years, 4 projected WAR, $20M in salary)
Potential trade partner: Rangers
Potential price: An A-level (25-75) and B-level player
Potential deal: Britton for Yohander Mendez and Brett Martin

There is not much to add here. When healthy, Britton is simply one of the best relief pitchers in all of baseball. But that healthy part is key, and he will need to get through his current rehab assignment and come back and demonstrate that he is still that same dominant force. If he does that, teams will come calling.

4. Brad Brach
Jon's value approximation: $17M (based on 1.5 years, 3 projected WAR, $7M in salary)
Potential trade partner: Rangers
Potential price: A-level (50-100) and B-level hitter
Potential deal: Brach for Andy Ibanez and Brett Martin

Even though he's more affordable than Britton, Brach comes in below the lefty closer because he doesn't have the same ceiling. If you want the best, you want Britton. If you want someone who's still very good when he's not being overworked (and can fill in at closer some, if needed), then Brach is more than a worthy alternative.

Brach has rebounded nicely after a shaky couple of weeks, and he's showing that although he's probably not as good as last year (2.05 ERA, 2.92 FIP in 79 innings), he's still a very good late-game relief option (currently, 2.67 ERA, 3.32 FIP in 30 1/3 innings).

5. Mychal Givens
Jon's value approximation: $36M (based on 4.5 years, 7 projected WAR, $20M in salary)
Potential trade partner: Rangers
Potential price: A-level (50-100) and B-level hitter
Potential deal: Givens for Andy Ibanez and Brett Martin

Givens's inclusion in the top five completes the troika of relievers after Machado and Schoop. Like Brach, Givens is a solid but not amazing reliever, plus he has the benefit of being under team control for several more seasons. Unlike Brach, Givens does have platoon concerns that are at least worth mentioning. Because of his extra value, Givens could net a similar return to Brach or maybe even more depending on the team, but he's probably just a notch below him and doesn't have the same kind of upside. (Also, in case you can't tell, Jon thinks the Rangers will add a reliever or two.)

Players Who Should Go

Welington Castillo

Castillo is having a nice season for the O's at the plate (105 wRC+), and he hasn't been terrible in terms of pitch framing either (Baseball Prospectus has him at -1.6 with its framing runs metric). Still, with a $7 million player option (essentially an opt-out even though the Orioles would never offer an opt-out), Castillo can choose whether he becomes a free agent after the season. The Orioles also have Chance Sisco in Triple-A Norfolk waiting in the wings for catching work, and Caleb Joseph is a serviceable backup option. It wouldn't be the worst thing for Castillo to return, but the O's don't need him and should get what they can (maybe a B-level pitcher and C+ hitter).

Wade Miley

Like Castillo, Miley has a 2018 option as well; his, though, is a team option for $12 million (with a $500K buyout). Miley has been the team's second-best starter, though that's no great feat considering Chris Tillman, Kevin Gausman, and Ubaldo Jimenez have ERAs over 6. Miley isn't the worst pitching option to have around, even for $12 million, but if the O's can move him for a B-level pitcher and C+ level hitter, they should take that offer.

Seth Smith
Hyun Soo Kim

Let's just lump these two together. They're both left-handed platoon bats in the corner outfield, and they're both scheduled to be free agents after the year. Together, they could bring back a couple of B-level pitchers and C+ level hitters.

Bad Timing Or Little Value

Adam Jones

Do you really want to see the Orioles trade Jones? I'm not sure that I do. However, that might not matter anyway; Jones can reject any deal because he has 10-and-5 rights (given to major leaguers with 10 years of service time who have played the last five consecutive years with the same team).

Jones is also not the same player. At this stage in his career, he's basically in the 90-100 wRC+ range with defensive abilities in center field that rate somewhere between average and below average. That's not awful for an up-the-middle position, but the final two years of his contract don't provide much of a bargain (the rest of $16 million this year and $17 million next season). Jones's contract extension was a great move for the team, but the surplus value from it has already been received. Now they're dealing with the rest of it, and it's not clear what the next step is.

Kevin Gausman

Arguably no player has had a more underwhelming couple of months than Gausman. Instead of helping to anchor the staff with Dylan Bundy, Gausman has been dreadful. Following a promising season - his first with a full workload (30 starts) - he has a 6.60 ERA and 5.50 FIP in 75 innings. His strikeouts are down, and his walks and home runs allowed are up. Gausman just can't shake his pre-Cubs Jake Arrieta impression, and some fans are tired of it and ready to cut bait.

What type of return could he fetch? Perhaps a 50-100 hitter and 50-100 pitcher, though, in the moment, that seems like a lot. Maybe that works for you. Gausman seems too talented to be this terrible, but he wouldn't be the first player to meet that qualification. There's no guarantee he'll improve, but he still seems like a hold.

Chris Tillman
Ubaldo Jimenez

Let's get this over with quickly. Tillman has been horrible, doesn't seem fully recovered from a shoulder injury that forced him to miss the start of the season, and is a free agent after this season. Unless he goes on some sort of miraculous run, he has next to no trade value.

Even though Jimenez had a nice start in his undeserved return to the O's rotation, he also barely has any trade value. The O's have been trying to unload his contract for years, and maybe the only reason why they'd be able to do so now is because his deal expires after the year. On any team with even the bare minimum of pitching depth, Jimenez would have been designated for assignment long ago. But, remember, this is Birdland.

Jon Shepherd contributed values and potential landing spots to this article.