It's clear by now that the biggest concern for the Orioles roster is the lack of starting pitching options. If the O's don't do anything significant to fix the rotation, then maybe none of the rest of the roster issues really matter that much. Still, the O's could use a defensive outfielder and an upgrade at utility infielder, with maybe one or both hopefully being decent left-handed bats. They could also try to part ways with Mark Trumbo to create some lineup flexibility, but that won't be easy.
But even though Welington Castillo predictably declined his $7 million player option for 2018, catcher is not a position the O's really have to fret about. That's because they have Caleb Joseph.
Joseph doesn't have Castillo's prowess with the bat, but he's far from a disaster. Besides a disastrous, RBI-less 2016 campaign that included a painful injury that certain O's beat reporters were rarely hesitant to mention, Joseph has mostly been around the MLB average mark for catchers.
Caleb Joseph wRC+ (and MLB average wRC+ for catchers)
2014: 71 (93)
2015: 88 (85)
2016: 8 (87)
2017: 82 (89)
Data via FanGraphs
You might not be thrilled with that. But combined with what Joseph brings to the table defensively, a league average bat is more than acceptable.
By DRS data, Joseph has been a highly touted defender behind the plate in his four seasons (+32 from 2014-2017). He's been above average overall in terms of throwing out opposing baserunners, though he was below average last season (though, to be fair, he did have to catch nearly 30 more innings of Ubaldo Jimenez, who's notoriously slow to the plate and easier to steal off of). He's also been a strong pitch-caller and good at blocking pitches in the dirt.
FanGraphs does not use UZR to measure catcher defense and instead lists DRS data. And while DRS data does apparently factor in "handling of the pitching staff via things like pitch framing and pitch calling," it's not as well regarded as framing data at Baseball Prospectus. Here's how Joseph ranks in FRAA (framing runs above average):
Caleb Joseph framing runs above average
2014: 15.2 (7th)
2015: 10.8 (11th)
2016: 7.8 (13th)
2017: 13.1 (8th)
Data via Baseball Prospectus
He's not the best, but he's pretty good and is clearly above average when it comes to adding extra strikes for his battery mate.
Considering everything, it's not surprising that BP lists Joseph as being worth more in his four seasons (5.8 WARP) than Baseball-Reference (4.1 bWAR) and FanGraphs (1.7 fWAR). Even if pitch framing is becoming a skill that's more difficult to carry over from year to year, Joseph has stayed pretty consistent in his career. And if he's able to maintain that level of production the next few years, all the better.
In Joseph, the Orioles have a good pitch-framer with good enough throwing, blocking, and hitting skills who is under team control for three more seasons. He made $700,000 last season after losing to the O's in arbitration, and as a Super Two player, he still has three more arbitration years remaining.
The O's are likely to have a patchwork pitching staff next year and beyond, and it won't hurt to have someone behind the plate for 100 or so games to aid their hurlers a bit. And even if pitch framing is not something that's easy to teach, it couldn't hurt Chance Sisco's defensive development as the backup to hopefully learn something from Joseph. Maybe that's wishful thinking, and of course there's no way of knowing what exactly Sisco will offer in 2017 (surely more offensively than defensively), but a Joseph-Sisco tandem could be a good and interesting combination.
Showing posts with label Welington Castillo. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Welington Castillo. Show all posts
10 November 2017
29 August 2017
O's Offensive Resurgence Has Been A Group Effort
One strange thing about the season's first half for the Orioles is how mediocre the offense was. You expected the starting pitching to not be good, but the offense was far from great. At the all-star break, the Orioles ranked just 22nd in the major leagues in runs scored and were generally unimpressive offensively.
In the first half, really only Trey Mancini (135 wRC+) and Jonathan Schoop (131 wRC+) were overly productive. Caleb Joseph's 95 wRC+ stood out because it was a significant jump for him, but other than Mancini and Schoop, the only two regulars to post a wRC+ over 100 were Chris Davis (105) and Seth Smith (102). The rest ranged from average to below average (Mark Trumbo, Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Welington Castillo) to not very good or bad (Joey Rickard, Hyun Soo Kim, J.J. Hardy).
To say that things have clicked in the second half, though, would be an understatement. While the starting pitching has also been better -- 5.75 ERA/5.31 FIP first half vs. 5.18 ERA/5.18 FIP -- the offense has been right near the top among all MLB teams. Since the break, the Orioles are second in runs scored (248), first in wRC+ (120), first in home runs (72), fourth in on-base percentage (.341), and first in slugging percentage (.493).
So what's changed? A .325 BABIP has helped (compared to .301 in the first half). Castillo (163 wRC+), Smith (148), Machado (144), Gentry (135), Schoop (133), Jones (131), and Mancini (116) have all been hitting extremely well. Even Davis, who has a wRC+ of just 102 on the season and has struggled mightily at times, is almost back over the 100 wRC+ mark in the second half. That only leaves Rickard (64 wRC+), who's in Triple-A Norfolk until rosters expand, and Trumbo (61 wRC+) as the only regulars who haven't hit well.
Oh, right. There's also been the small addition of Tim Beckham to help solidify the top of the O's lineup. Since joining the Orioles a month ago, Beckham has a wRC+ of 185 and has been worth nearly two wins above replacement. In the last 30 days, Beckham's 1.7 fWAR is tied with Machado for sixth-best in the majors. His wRC+ is seventh-best. No one could have predicted Beckham would play like this, and his performance has helped vault the Orioles back into serious playoff contenders.
To recap, in the first half, the O's had just four regulars with a wRC+ over 100. In the second half, they have eight. As with many things, the true talent of the O's offense is probably somewhere between both halves.
The bad news is that the offense might have to keep being this good or close if the O's are going to take the second wild card spot, thanks to inconsistent starting pitching. The good news, though, is that Beckham seems to be a real find for an inexpensive price, Machado is back to being Machado, Schoop seems to have taken a leap forward, and Mancini has hit better than many of his biggest supporters could have predicted. The future of the Orioles is uncertain, but at least there are a couple more things to get excited about.
In the first half, really only Trey Mancini (135 wRC+) and Jonathan Schoop (131 wRC+) were overly productive. Caleb Joseph's 95 wRC+ stood out because it was a significant jump for him, but other than Mancini and Schoop, the only two regulars to post a wRC+ over 100 were Chris Davis (105) and Seth Smith (102). The rest ranged from average to below average (Mark Trumbo, Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Welington Castillo) to not very good or bad (Joey Rickard, Hyun Soo Kim, J.J. Hardy).
To say that things have clicked in the second half, though, would be an understatement. While the starting pitching has also been better -- 5.75 ERA/5.31 FIP first half vs. 5.18 ERA/5.18 FIP -- the offense has been right near the top among all MLB teams. Since the break, the Orioles are second in runs scored (248), first in wRC+ (120), first in home runs (72), fourth in on-base percentage (.341), and first in slugging percentage (.493).
So what's changed? A .325 BABIP has helped (compared to .301 in the first half). Castillo (163 wRC+), Smith (148), Machado (144), Gentry (135), Schoop (133), Jones (131), and Mancini (116) have all been hitting extremely well. Even Davis, who has a wRC+ of just 102 on the season and has struggled mightily at times, is almost back over the 100 wRC+ mark in the second half. That only leaves Rickard (64 wRC+), who's in Triple-A Norfolk until rosters expand, and Trumbo (61 wRC+) as the only regulars who haven't hit well.
Oh, right. There's also been the small addition of Tim Beckham to help solidify the top of the O's lineup. Since joining the Orioles a month ago, Beckham has a wRC+ of 185 and has been worth nearly two wins above replacement. In the last 30 days, Beckham's 1.7 fWAR is tied with Machado for sixth-best in the majors. His wRC+ is seventh-best. No one could have predicted Beckham would play like this, and his performance has helped vault the Orioles back into serious playoff contenders.
To recap, in the first half, the O's had just four regulars with a wRC+ over 100. In the second half, they have eight. As with many things, the true talent of the O's offense is probably somewhere between both halves.
The bad news is that the offense might have to keep being this good or close if the O's are going to take the second wild card spot, thanks to inconsistent starting pitching. The good news, though, is that Beckham seems to be a real find for an inexpensive price, Machado is back to being Machado, Schoop seems to have taken a leap forward, and Mancini has hit better than many of his biggest supporters could have predicted. The future of the Orioles is uncertain, but at least there are a couple more things to get excited about.
21 June 2017
Top 5 Orioles Trade Chips
Thanks to some home runs and good relief pitching, the Orioles pulled out a one-run win last night to get back to .500. Close wins are still wins, and it's too early to completely write off the O's.
Still, the 2017 season has gone south for the Orioles in a major way. If they were just losing a bunch of close games, that would be one thing. That's not the case, though, as both injuries and poor play across the board have resulted in the O's currently looking up at three teams in the American League East. Additionally, the Orioles now have a run differential of -56, which is second worst in the American League and fifth worst in all of baseball. The Orioles have some serious problems, and some of them are not fixable.
Any rational-minded O's fan knew this squad had a limited window to compete, and it very well may have slammed shut. We will find out soon whether the Orioles can stay within striking distance of the playoff race, and they'll come to a crossroads on how to proceed with this group of players. It'll either be time to push major decisions on players like Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, and Zach Britton to the offseason, or to meet this organization's problems head-on and see what the Orioles can really acquire at the trade deadline by dangling some of their best players.
Let's note two things first. First, I do not expect the Orioles to trade Machado or Schoop this season. Maybe falling way out of the race would change that, but I'd still be stunned. I also do not think ownership will pony up the cash required to keep a superstar talent like Machado, but you could certainly argue they shouldn't do that anyway. There aren't many players like Machado out there, but there also aren't many mid- or small-market clubs who could pay an enormous amount of money to Machado while also paying a huge chunk of change (though less enormous than Machado) to Chris Davis and still be able to put the requisite pieces around them. Doing something like that would require a lot of young, cheap talent, which the Orioles don't have right now.
Second, you can't ignore the contract situations of Dan Duquette and Buck Showalter. Their deals both expire after 2018. Do you really want Duquette orchestrating a tear-down if he's not going to be here soon? And if you jettison Duquette, what about Showalter? An incoming general manager would probably want to pick his own manager, though the Orioles don't really work that way (Showalter was already in place as manager when Duquette was hired as executive vice president of baseball operations). Perhaps the Orioles would just promote from within anyway (obligatory Brady Anderson mention). Would Showalter be fine with that and does he still want to manage; or is he more interested in a front office role? These are all important questions, and I fully expect the Orioles to punt on them until the offseason.
If the Orioles were to be fully active in the trade market, though, how would their trade chips rank? Many of them don't look as good as they did before the season, but let's take a look at the top five:
1. Manny Machado
Jon's value approximation: $42M (based on 1.5 years, 8 projected WAR, $22M in salary)
Potential trade partner: Astros
Potential price: A lot
Potential deal: Machado for Alex Bregman, Francis Martes, Franklin Perez, Forrest Whitley, and Colin Moran
Machado isn't hitting up to his abilities (last night's two-homer, 4-4 game was a good sign, though), but there's no doubting his talent. He's an elite defensive third baseman, an above-average defender at shortstop if a team wants to use him there, and his offensive struggles will only last for so long. Machado would be a game-changer for any team looking for a significant upgrade for the rest of this season. That team could keep him through 2018, his last year of arbitration, or flip him in the offseason.
In all likelihood, the O's won't be able to keep Machado in Baltimore, and while dealing Machado would be difficult to stomach, it could also be a way to replenish a farm system in serious need of top-level talent. Players like Machado don't become available often, and the price to acquire him would and should be enormous.
2. Jonathan Schoop
Jon's value approximation: $36M (based on 2.5 years, 6 projected WAR, $20M in salary)
Potential trade partner: Unclear
Potential price: Top 25-50 pitcher and B-level hitter or 50-100 hitter and 50-100 pitcher
Britton probably would have gone here a few months ago, except he now has a forearm injury that's caused two trips to the disabled list this season. The Orioles and Britton have taken a more patient approach this time after an earlier setback, and he very well may be fine and look like the Britton of old when he is scheduled to return in a couple weeks. But that injury cloud matters, and maybe the O's couldn't get as much as they'd like.
Meanwhile, there's Schoop, who seems to have taken a much-needed step forward offensively. He's walking more than ever, chasing less often, and being much more selective. Because of Machado's struggles, Schoop has arguably been the team's best position player so far.
One the one hand, Schoop is 25 and a homegrown talent, and you'd like to keep those guys around (especially when they're showing promise). On the other hand, the Orioles, as if often the case, did not lock Schoop up to any kind of team-friendly extension. He has two arbitration-eligible years left, making him a free agent in 2020. He's going to get more expensive in 2018 and 2019, and there's no guarantee he sticks around beyond that.
On top of that, he may need to move off of second base soon. There's no doubting the strength of Schoop's arm, but his range may be becoming an issue. Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating both have him as a far below average defender this year, and there have been more than a handful of groundballs that have bounced off his glove or escaped his reach that a second baseman with average range would have gobbled up.
If the Orioles aren't going to explore an extension, then it's time to start thinking about what he could bring back in a trade.
3. Zach Britton
Jon's value approximation: $12M (based on 1.5 years, 4 projected WAR, $20M in salary)
Potential trade partner: Rangers
Potential price: An A-level (25-75) and B-level player
Potential deal: Britton for Yohander Mendez and Brett Martin
There is not much to add here. When healthy, Britton is simply one of the best relief pitchers in all of baseball. But that healthy part is key, and he will need to get through his current rehab assignment and come back and demonstrate that he is still that same dominant force. If he does that, teams will come calling.
4. Brad Brach
Jon's value approximation: $17M (based on 1.5 years, 3 projected WAR, $7M in salary)
Potential trade partner: Rangers
Potential price: A-level (50-100) and B-level hitter
Potential deal: Brach for Andy Ibanez and Brett Martin
Even though he's more affordable than Britton, Brach comes in below the lefty closer because he doesn't have the same ceiling. If you want the best, you want Britton. If you want someone who's still very good when he's not being overworked (and can fill in at closer some, if needed), then Brach is more than a worthy alternative.
Brach has rebounded nicely after a shaky couple of weeks, and he's showing that although he's probably not as good as last year (2.05 ERA, 2.92 FIP in 79 innings), he's still a very good late-game relief option (currently, 2.67 ERA, 3.32 FIP in 30 1/3 innings).
5. Mychal Givens
Jon's value approximation: $36M (based on 4.5 years, 7 projected WAR, $20M in salary)
Potential trade partner: Rangers
Potential price: A-level (50-100) and B-level hitter
Potential deal: Givens for Andy Ibanez and Brett Martin
Givens's inclusion in the top five completes the troika of relievers after Machado and Schoop. Like Brach, Givens is a solid but not amazing reliever, plus he has the benefit of being under team control for several more seasons. Unlike Brach, Givens does have platoon concerns that are at least worth mentioning. Because of his extra value, Givens could net a similar return to Brach or maybe even more depending on the team, but he's probably just a notch below him and doesn't have the same kind of upside. (Also, in case you can't tell, Jon thinks the Rangers will add a reliever or two.)
Players Who Should Go
Welington Castillo
Castillo is having a nice season for the O's at the plate (105 wRC+), and he hasn't been terrible in terms of pitch framing either (Baseball Prospectus has him at -1.6 with its framing runs metric). Still, with a $7 million player option (essentially an opt-out even though the Orioles would never offer an opt-out), Castillo can choose whether he becomes a free agent after the season. The Orioles also have Chance Sisco in Triple-A Norfolk waiting in the wings for catching work, and Caleb Joseph is a serviceable backup option. It wouldn't be the worst thing for Castillo to return, but the O's don't need him and should get what they can (maybe a B-level pitcher and C+ hitter).
Wade Miley
Like Castillo, Miley has a 2018 option as well; his, though, is a team option for $12 million (with a $500K buyout). Miley has been the team's second-best starter, though that's no great feat considering Chris Tillman, Kevin Gausman, and Ubaldo Jimenez have ERAs over 6. Miley isn't the worst pitching option to have around, even for $12 million, but if the O's can move him for a B-level pitcher and C+ level hitter, they should take that offer.
Seth Smith
Hyun Soo Kim
Let's just lump these two together. They're both left-handed platoon bats in the corner outfield, and they're both scheduled to be free agents after the year. Together, they could bring back a couple of B-level pitchers and C+ level hitters.
Bad Timing Or Little Value
Adam Jones
Do you really want to see the Orioles trade Jones? I'm not sure that I do. However, that might not matter anyway; Jones can reject any deal because he has 10-and-5 rights (given to major leaguers with 10 years of service time who have played the last five consecutive years with the same team).
Jones is also not the same player. At this stage in his career, he's basically in the 90-100 wRC+ range with defensive abilities in center field that rate somewhere between average and below average. That's not awful for an up-the-middle position, but the final two years of his contract don't provide much of a bargain (the rest of $16 million this year and $17 million next season). Jones's contract extension was a great move for the team, but the surplus value from it has already been received. Now they're dealing with the rest of it, and it's not clear what the next step is.
Kevin Gausman
Arguably no player has had a more underwhelming couple of months than Gausman. Instead of helping to anchor the staff with Dylan Bundy, Gausman has been dreadful. Following a promising season - his first with a full workload (30 starts) - he has a 6.60 ERA and 5.50 FIP in 75 innings. His strikeouts are down, and his walks and home runs allowed are up. Gausman just can't shake his pre-Cubs Jake Arrieta impression, and some fans are tired of it and ready to cut bait.
What type of return could he fetch? Perhaps a 50-100 hitter and 50-100 pitcher, though, in the moment, that seems like a lot. Maybe that works for you. Gausman seems too talented to be this terrible, but he wouldn't be the first player to meet that qualification. There's no guarantee he'll improve, but he still seems like a hold.
Chris Tillman
Ubaldo Jimenez
Let's get this over with quickly. Tillman has been horrible, doesn't seem fully recovered from a shoulder injury that forced him to miss the start of the season, and is a free agent after this season. Unless he goes on some sort of miraculous run, he has next to no trade value.
Even though Jimenez had a nice start in his undeserved return to the O's rotation, he also barely has any trade value. The O's have been trying to unload his contract for years, and maybe the only reason why they'd be able to do so now is because his deal expires after the year. On any team with even the bare minimum of pitching depth, Jimenez would have been designated for assignment long ago. But, remember, this is Birdland.
Jon Shepherd contributed values and potential landing spots to this article.
Still, the 2017 season has gone south for the Orioles in a major way. If they were just losing a bunch of close games, that would be one thing. That's not the case, though, as both injuries and poor play across the board have resulted in the O's currently looking up at three teams in the American League East. Additionally, the Orioles now have a run differential of -56, which is second worst in the American League and fifth worst in all of baseball. The Orioles have some serious problems, and some of them are not fixable.
Any rational-minded O's fan knew this squad had a limited window to compete, and it very well may have slammed shut. We will find out soon whether the Orioles can stay within striking distance of the playoff race, and they'll come to a crossroads on how to proceed with this group of players. It'll either be time to push major decisions on players like Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, and Zach Britton to the offseason, or to meet this organization's problems head-on and see what the Orioles can really acquire at the trade deadline by dangling some of their best players.
Let's note two things first. First, I do not expect the Orioles to trade Machado or Schoop this season. Maybe falling way out of the race would change that, but I'd still be stunned. I also do not think ownership will pony up the cash required to keep a superstar talent like Machado, but you could certainly argue they shouldn't do that anyway. There aren't many players like Machado out there, but there also aren't many mid- or small-market clubs who could pay an enormous amount of money to Machado while also paying a huge chunk of change (though less enormous than Machado) to Chris Davis and still be able to put the requisite pieces around them. Doing something like that would require a lot of young, cheap talent, which the Orioles don't have right now.
Second, you can't ignore the contract situations of Dan Duquette and Buck Showalter. Their deals both expire after 2018. Do you really want Duquette orchestrating a tear-down if he's not going to be here soon? And if you jettison Duquette, what about Showalter? An incoming general manager would probably want to pick his own manager, though the Orioles don't really work that way (Showalter was already in place as manager when Duquette was hired as executive vice president of baseball operations). Perhaps the Orioles would just promote from within anyway (obligatory Brady Anderson mention). Would Showalter be fine with that and does he still want to manage; or is he more interested in a front office role? These are all important questions, and I fully expect the Orioles to punt on them until the offseason.
If the Orioles were to be fully active in the trade market, though, how would their trade chips rank? Many of them don't look as good as they did before the season, but let's take a look at the top five:
1. Manny Machado
Jon's value approximation: $42M (based on 1.5 years, 8 projected WAR, $22M in salary)
Potential trade partner: Astros
Potential price: A lot
Potential deal: Machado for Alex Bregman, Francis Martes, Franklin Perez, Forrest Whitley, and Colin Moran
Machado isn't hitting up to his abilities (last night's two-homer, 4-4 game was a good sign, though), but there's no doubting his talent. He's an elite defensive third baseman, an above-average defender at shortstop if a team wants to use him there, and his offensive struggles will only last for so long. Machado would be a game-changer for any team looking for a significant upgrade for the rest of this season. That team could keep him through 2018, his last year of arbitration, or flip him in the offseason.
In all likelihood, the O's won't be able to keep Machado in Baltimore, and while dealing Machado would be difficult to stomach, it could also be a way to replenish a farm system in serious need of top-level talent. Players like Machado don't become available often, and the price to acquire him would and should be enormous.
2. Jonathan Schoop
Jon's value approximation: $36M (based on 2.5 years, 6 projected WAR, $20M in salary)
Potential trade partner: Unclear
Potential price: Top 25-50 pitcher and B-level hitter or 50-100 hitter and 50-100 pitcher
Britton probably would have gone here a few months ago, except he now has a forearm injury that's caused two trips to the disabled list this season. The Orioles and Britton have taken a more patient approach this time after an earlier setback, and he very well may be fine and look like the Britton of old when he is scheduled to return in a couple weeks. But that injury cloud matters, and maybe the O's couldn't get as much as they'd like.
Meanwhile, there's Schoop, who seems to have taken a much-needed step forward offensively. He's walking more than ever, chasing less often, and being much more selective. Because of Machado's struggles, Schoop has arguably been the team's best position player so far.
One the one hand, Schoop is 25 and a homegrown talent, and you'd like to keep those guys around (especially when they're showing promise). On the other hand, the Orioles, as if often the case, did not lock Schoop up to any kind of team-friendly extension. He has two arbitration-eligible years left, making him a free agent in 2020. He's going to get more expensive in 2018 and 2019, and there's no guarantee he sticks around beyond that.
On top of that, he may need to move off of second base soon. There's no doubting the strength of Schoop's arm, but his range may be becoming an issue. Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating both have him as a far below average defender this year, and there have been more than a handful of groundballs that have bounced off his glove or escaped his reach that a second baseman with average range would have gobbled up.
If the Orioles aren't going to explore an extension, then it's time to start thinking about what he could bring back in a trade.
3. Zach Britton
Jon's value approximation: $12M (based on 1.5 years, 4 projected WAR, $20M in salary)
Potential trade partner: Rangers
Potential price: An A-level (25-75) and B-level player
Potential deal: Britton for Yohander Mendez and Brett Martin
There is not much to add here. When healthy, Britton is simply one of the best relief pitchers in all of baseball. But that healthy part is key, and he will need to get through his current rehab assignment and come back and demonstrate that he is still that same dominant force. If he does that, teams will come calling.
4. Brad Brach
Jon's value approximation: $17M (based on 1.5 years, 3 projected WAR, $7M in salary)
Potential trade partner: Rangers
Potential price: A-level (50-100) and B-level hitter
Potential deal: Brach for Andy Ibanez and Brett Martin
Even though he's more affordable than Britton, Brach comes in below the lefty closer because he doesn't have the same ceiling. If you want the best, you want Britton. If you want someone who's still very good when he's not being overworked (and can fill in at closer some, if needed), then Brach is more than a worthy alternative.
Brach has rebounded nicely after a shaky couple of weeks, and he's showing that although he's probably not as good as last year (2.05 ERA, 2.92 FIP in 79 innings), he's still a very good late-game relief option (currently, 2.67 ERA, 3.32 FIP in 30 1/3 innings).
5. Mychal Givens
Jon's value approximation: $36M (based on 4.5 years, 7 projected WAR, $20M in salary)
Potential trade partner: Rangers
Potential price: A-level (50-100) and B-level hitter
Potential deal: Givens for Andy Ibanez and Brett Martin
Givens's inclusion in the top five completes the troika of relievers after Machado and Schoop. Like Brach, Givens is a solid but not amazing reliever, plus he has the benefit of being under team control for several more seasons. Unlike Brach, Givens does have platoon concerns that are at least worth mentioning. Because of his extra value, Givens could net a similar return to Brach or maybe even more depending on the team, but he's probably just a notch below him and doesn't have the same kind of upside. (Also, in case you can't tell, Jon thinks the Rangers will add a reliever or two.)
Players Who Should Go
Welington Castillo
Castillo is having a nice season for the O's at the plate (105 wRC+), and he hasn't been terrible in terms of pitch framing either (Baseball Prospectus has him at -1.6 with its framing runs metric). Still, with a $7 million player option (essentially an opt-out even though the Orioles would never offer an opt-out), Castillo can choose whether he becomes a free agent after the season. The Orioles also have Chance Sisco in Triple-A Norfolk waiting in the wings for catching work, and Caleb Joseph is a serviceable backup option. It wouldn't be the worst thing for Castillo to return, but the O's don't need him and should get what they can (maybe a B-level pitcher and C+ hitter).
Wade Miley
Like Castillo, Miley has a 2018 option as well; his, though, is a team option for $12 million (with a $500K buyout). Miley has been the team's second-best starter, though that's no great feat considering Chris Tillman, Kevin Gausman, and Ubaldo Jimenez have ERAs over 6. Miley isn't the worst pitching option to have around, even for $12 million, but if the O's can move him for a B-level pitcher and C+ level hitter, they should take that offer.
Seth Smith
Hyun Soo Kim
Let's just lump these two together. They're both left-handed platoon bats in the corner outfield, and they're both scheduled to be free agents after the year. Together, they could bring back a couple of B-level pitchers and C+ level hitters.
Bad Timing Or Little Value
Adam Jones
Do you really want to see the Orioles trade Jones? I'm not sure that I do. However, that might not matter anyway; Jones can reject any deal because he has 10-and-5 rights (given to major leaguers with 10 years of service time who have played the last five consecutive years with the same team).
Jones is also not the same player. At this stage in his career, he's basically in the 90-100 wRC+ range with defensive abilities in center field that rate somewhere between average and below average. That's not awful for an up-the-middle position, but the final two years of his contract don't provide much of a bargain (the rest of $16 million this year and $17 million next season). Jones's contract extension was a great move for the team, but the surplus value from it has already been received. Now they're dealing with the rest of it, and it's not clear what the next step is.
Kevin Gausman
Arguably no player has had a more underwhelming couple of months than Gausman. Instead of helping to anchor the staff with Dylan Bundy, Gausman has been dreadful. Following a promising season - his first with a full workload (30 starts) - he has a 6.60 ERA and 5.50 FIP in 75 innings. His strikeouts are down, and his walks and home runs allowed are up. Gausman just can't shake his pre-Cubs Jake Arrieta impression, and some fans are tired of it and ready to cut bait.
What type of return could he fetch? Perhaps a 50-100 hitter and 50-100 pitcher, though, in the moment, that seems like a lot. Maybe that works for you. Gausman seems too talented to be this terrible, but he wouldn't be the first player to meet that qualification. There's no guarantee he'll improve, but he still seems like a hold.
Chris Tillman
Ubaldo Jimenez
Let's get this over with quickly. Tillman has been horrible, doesn't seem fully recovered from a shoulder injury that forced him to miss the start of the season, and is a free agent after this season. Unless he goes on some sort of miraculous run, he has next to no trade value.
Even though Jimenez had a nice start in his undeserved return to the O's rotation, he also barely has any trade value. The O's have been trying to unload his contract for years, and maybe the only reason why they'd be able to do so now is because his deal expires after the year. On any team with even the bare minimum of pitching depth, Jimenez would have been designated for assignment long ago. But, remember, this is Birdland.
Jon Shepherd contributed values and potential landing spots to this article.
30 January 2017
The Case Against Bringing Back Matt Wieters
The Orioles' signing of Welington Castillo signaled that they had moved on from Matt Wieters and were all settled at catcher. But Wieters is still a free agent, and some have speculated about his possible return to Baltimore. Until Wieters actually signs, that will keep being a thing. And while extremely unlikely, it's not impossible.
A few days ago, Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com discussed the possibility of the Orioles re-signing Wieters to "a one-year, pillow deal" to split work behind the plate with Castillo.
A few days ago, Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com discussed the possibility of the Orioles re-signing Wieters to "a one-year, pillow deal" to split work behind the plate with Castillo.
Here's more from Connolly:
And where do offensive players often end up when a one-year agreement is the best option? Camden Yards, of course.Who knows what exactly it would take to re-sign Wieters, or if he'd be willing to give the Orioles some type of "home-town discount" since there don't appear to be many teams out there extending enticing offers. And the Joseph-grooming-Chance Sisco angle sounds great -- Joseph is surely a professional -- but the Orioles also have coaches and Joseph is not without any value at the major league level.
In a sense, Baltimore suddenly becomes the perfect fit for Wieters in that one-year scenario. Their competitive clock is ticking, and their hope is they don’t need a long-term catcher.
Wieters, a switch-hitter, and Castillo, a right-handed hitter, could rotate at catcher and DH some, keeping both fresh and making Buck Showalter’s bench stronger. It would push Caleb Joseph to the minors, and though that would be unfortunate for Joseph, it wouldn’t be a terrible thing for the organization.
Let's focus on the Castillo/Wieters potential fit. Castillo and Wieters are both healthy, so they're expecting to catch more than 100 games each next season. With a 2018 player option, Castillo is already on his own pillow contract of sorts. In this scenario, both players will want as much playing time as possible for the chance to excel and land a longer, more lucrative deal. That sounds like a pretty awkward situation; it's unlikely Castillo would have signed his deal if Wieters were still under consideration.
But, hey, having both catchers split the work seems like a decent idea, right? And as Connolly noted, Castillo is right-handed, and Wieters is a switch-hitter. Who doesn't love yet another platoon? Unfortunately, despite being able to hit from both sides of the plate, Wieters has been much better against lefties in his career:
Wieters career vs. RHP: 91 wRC+
Wieters career vs. LHP: 114 wRC+
Castillo has also found much more success against lefties:
Castillo career vs. RHP: 88 wRC+
Castillo career vs. LHP: 126 wRC+
That's not how you construct an effective platoon.
Since both players have hit lefties well, perhaps that could be a benefit when facing left-handed starters. Wieters or Castillo would start, and the other could DH. But that also has a few ramifications. First, it would push Mark Trumbo to right field. That's never a good thing, though that might happen anyway. Second, it almost certainly pushes Trey Mancini to the minors. That's not the worst thing, as it will already be difficult for Buck Showalter to find playing time for a first baseman/DH on a roster that has Chris Davis and Trumbo. But Mancini, while still a question mark, does provide a cost-effective bench bat, and he has shown the tendency to hit left-handers better in the minors. And third, while it's a much lesser concern, how often do you want your backup catcher in the DH spot in case something happens to the starter? Showalter hasn't opted to use Wieters much as a DH, choosing to give him more rest. Maybe that would change with another catching option.
Regardless, guys like Castillo and Wieters are valuable because they have the ability to hit while playing such a demanding position. You could work in some DH at-bats here and there, but it doesn't add much to their value. But it probably wouldn't be particularly helpful to have two catchers with pitch-framing abilities that are much in question.
If the Orioles have money available to bring Wieters back for a year, then it would probably be better spent on adding some starting pitching or outfield depth. (Right, Adam Jones?) Sure, there's comfort in familiarity, and the Orioles have demonstrated in the Showalter era that they do value clubhouse chemistry and fit. As someone who's been with the Orioles through the highs and lows, Wieters checks those boxes. But you also have to know when to say goodbye.
The O's have capable, cheap, and better-framing backup options in Joseph and Francisco Pena, and there's no reason to add Wieters back for anything less than a complete and total bargain (and how likely is that for a Scott Boras client?). If he does end up settling for a one-year deal, Wieters will likely be more interested in a situation where he can get the bulk of the innings behind the plate. That place, for the time being, isn't Baltimore.
22 December 2016
A Closer Look At Welington Castillo's Pitch Framing
Welington Castillo is not a good pitch framer. Ryan wrote an article last week discussing how Castillo’s pitch farming has cost his team about ten runs per season. Jeff Sullivan argued that Castillo isn’t the Orioles’ best catcher due to his poor pitch framing ability. Nick Cicere wrote an interesting article for Camden Chat with some video examples showing how Castillo struggles with framing. But just because Castillo struggles with framing, does that mean he struggles evenly regardless of where a pitch is thrown? He may be bad overall, but perhaps there are certain areas where his ability to frame is acceptable.
Using ESPNs Stats and Information Trumedia Portal, I took a closer look at his pitch framing results. The TruMedia portal is relatively high on Castillo’s 2016 pitch framing results, ranking him 52th out of 76 qualified catchers and rating his framing ability at only 2.70 runs below average. StatCorner reports similar results and claims he was worth -3.2 runs. Baseball Prospectus has better algorithms to measure pitch framing ability, and ranks his framing ability considerably lower. This could mean that this dataset has a fatal flaw. Unfortunately, without access to BPs proprietary methodology, this dataset is the best available to me.
The ESPN portal is unimpressed by Castillo’s framing ability against pitches thrown up in the zone. Out of 76 qualified pitchers in 2016, Castillo is ranked 75th against pitches thrown in the top third of the zone and has a framing value of -9.13. In 2015, Castillo was ranked 63rd out 67 qualified catchers with a framing value of -6.24. In 2014, Castillo was ranked 75th out of 76 qualified catchers with a framing value of -10.06. From 2014-2016, Castillo ranks as the worst catcher out of 103 qualified catchers with a -25.43 framing value. Not only this, but he’s the worst catcher regardless of whether a pitch is thrown inside or outside. It’s safe to say that this dataset indicates that Castillo is pretty terrible when it comes to framing pitches up in the zone.
He’s not much better relatively speaking when it comes to the middle of the zone. This data portal ranks his defense from 2014-2016 as yet again the worst out of all 103 qualified catchers with a -11.75 framing value. Yet again, it makes little difference whether pitchers throw the ball inside or outside. His best year in the three year sample was in 2016, when he ranked 73rd out of 76 qualified catchers. Let me reiterate that this data portal ranks Castillo’s defense most favorably. It’s safe to say that this dataset thinks little of Castillo’s ability to frame pitches in the middle of the zone.
Castillo excels when it comes to framing pitches in the bottom of the zone. From 2014-2016, his framing ability is ranked 28th out of 103 with a 6.32 value. He has pretty poor results framing pitches in the inside part of the zone, ranking only 70th out of 103 with a -1.33 value. However, he ranks 27th out of 103 framing pitches low and away with a 3.03 pitch framing value and ranks 13th out of 103 framing pitches that are just low but in the middle of the plate with a 4.63 pitch framing value.
In addition, Castillo has shown improvement at framing pitches low in the zone each year. He ranked 12th out of 76 in 2016 (+9 runs), 29th out of 67 in 2015 (+2.1 runs) and 61st out of 76th in 2014 (-5 runs). This possibly indicates that Castillo is able to improve in this regard. Castillo told Don Connolly that he’ll be going to Puerto Rico in order to work on his receiving and pitch framing abilities. He also stated that he knows he needs to work on it. If Castillo can continue his improvement in this regard, it’s possible he won’t be the worst catcher framing pitches up in the zone.
Jon reported on Sunday that Castillo will be Jimenez and Miley’s catcher as well as possibly Gallardo’s. Unfortunately, Jimenez is typically more successful when throwing pitches up in the zone rather than below. From 2014-2016, batters have a .310 wOBA when putting pitches thrown up in the zone into play, and a .346 wOBA when putting pitches thrown low in the zone into play.
When batters don’t put the ball into play, Jimenez has some pretty ugly number whether he throws a pitch up in the zone or low in the zone. But he is able to generate considerably more foul balls, throwing a pitch up in the zone rather than down in the zone. He has a 42% chance of getting a strike or a foul on pitches thrown up in the zone, but only a 37.8% chance when throwing down in the zone. If he decides to target the bottom of the zone in response to having Castillo as his catcher, fans will be more likely to want to throw up when watching him pitch.
However, Miley has better results when throwing down in the zone than throwing up in the zone. Opposing batters have a .375 wOBA when putting pitches thrown down in the zone into play compared to a .420 wOBA when putting pitchers thrown up in the zone into play. That stated, while he has a better swinging strike rate throwing down in the zone, he has a lower called ball rate, and higher called strike rate and foul rate throwing up in the zone. Honestly, having a catcher that can do a good job framing pitches is the least of his worries.
Castillo is terrible at framing pitches up in the zone as well as in the middle of the zone, but can do an acceptable job framing pitches low in the zone. This is ideal for a reliever like Zach Britton. However, it’s unlikely that this skillset will help improve Jimenez or Miley’s performance. The right team could probably work around Castillo’s inability to frame pitches, but that team probably isn’t the Orioles.
Using ESPNs Stats and Information Trumedia Portal, I took a closer look at his pitch framing results. The TruMedia portal is relatively high on Castillo’s 2016 pitch framing results, ranking him 52th out of 76 qualified catchers and rating his framing ability at only 2.70 runs below average. StatCorner reports similar results and claims he was worth -3.2 runs. Baseball Prospectus has better algorithms to measure pitch framing ability, and ranks his framing ability considerably lower. This could mean that this dataset has a fatal flaw. Unfortunately, without access to BPs proprietary methodology, this dataset is the best available to me.
The ESPN portal is unimpressed by Castillo’s framing ability against pitches thrown up in the zone. Out of 76 qualified pitchers in 2016, Castillo is ranked 75th against pitches thrown in the top third of the zone and has a framing value of -9.13. In 2015, Castillo was ranked 63rd out 67 qualified catchers with a framing value of -6.24. In 2014, Castillo was ranked 75th out of 76 qualified catchers with a framing value of -10.06. From 2014-2016, Castillo ranks as the worst catcher out of 103 qualified catchers with a -25.43 framing value. Not only this, but he’s the worst catcher regardless of whether a pitch is thrown inside or outside. It’s safe to say that this dataset indicates that Castillo is pretty terrible when it comes to framing pitches up in the zone.
He’s not much better relatively speaking when it comes to the middle of the zone. This data portal ranks his defense from 2014-2016 as yet again the worst out of all 103 qualified catchers with a -11.75 framing value. Yet again, it makes little difference whether pitchers throw the ball inside or outside. His best year in the three year sample was in 2016, when he ranked 73rd out of 76 qualified catchers. Let me reiterate that this data portal ranks Castillo’s defense most favorably. It’s safe to say that this dataset thinks little of Castillo’s ability to frame pitches in the middle of the zone.
Castillo excels when it comes to framing pitches in the bottom of the zone. From 2014-2016, his framing ability is ranked 28th out of 103 with a 6.32 value. He has pretty poor results framing pitches in the inside part of the zone, ranking only 70th out of 103 with a -1.33 value. However, he ranks 27th out of 103 framing pitches low and away with a 3.03 pitch framing value and ranks 13th out of 103 framing pitches that are just low but in the middle of the plate with a 4.63 pitch framing value.
In addition, Castillo has shown improvement at framing pitches low in the zone each year. He ranked 12th out of 76 in 2016 (+9 runs), 29th out of 67 in 2015 (+2.1 runs) and 61st out of 76th in 2014 (-5 runs). This possibly indicates that Castillo is able to improve in this regard. Castillo told Don Connolly that he’ll be going to Puerto Rico in order to work on his receiving and pitch framing abilities. He also stated that he knows he needs to work on it. If Castillo can continue his improvement in this regard, it’s possible he won’t be the worst catcher framing pitches up in the zone.
Jon reported on Sunday that Castillo will be Jimenez and Miley’s catcher as well as possibly Gallardo’s. Unfortunately, Jimenez is typically more successful when throwing pitches up in the zone rather than below. From 2014-2016, batters have a .310 wOBA when putting pitches thrown up in the zone into play, and a .346 wOBA when putting pitches thrown low in the zone into play.
When batters don’t put the ball into play, Jimenez has some pretty ugly number whether he throws a pitch up in the zone or low in the zone. But he is able to generate considerably more foul balls, throwing a pitch up in the zone rather than down in the zone. He has a 42% chance of getting a strike or a foul on pitches thrown up in the zone, but only a 37.8% chance when throwing down in the zone. If he decides to target the bottom of the zone in response to having Castillo as his catcher, fans will be more likely to want to throw up when watching him pitch.
However, Miley has better results when throwing down in the zone than throwing up in the zone. Opposing batters have a .375 wOBA when putting pitches thrown down in the zone into play compared to a .420 wOBA when putting pitchers thrown up in the zone into play. That stated, while he has a better swinging strike rate throwing down in the zone, he has a lower called ball rate, and higher called strike rate and foul rate throwing up in the zone. Honestly, having a catcher that can do a good job framing pitches is the least of his worries.
Castillo is terrible at framing pitches up in the zone as well as in the middle of the zone, but can do an acceptable job framing pitches low in the zone. This is ideal for a reliever like Zach Britton. However, it’s unlikely that this skillset will help improve Jimenez or Miley’s performance. The right team could probably work around Castillo’s inability to frame pitches, but that team probably isn’t the Orioles.
19 December 2016
The Orioles Are Still Really Right-Handed
By both wRC+ (83) and wOBA (.299), the Orioles were the worst team in the American League last year when it came to hitting left-handed pitching. That's an area where Welington Castillo should help. Castillo has a career wRC+ of 126 against southpaws. The switch-hitting Matt Wieters, with a career 114 wRC+ against lefties, posted a wRC+ of just 71 in 2016. In theory, Castillo should help.
Still, despite being very right-handed, most of the O's don't produce against left-handed pitching. See the career numbers below:
Manny Machado: 111 wRC+
J.J. Hardy: 102 wRC+
Adam Jones: 95 wRC+
Chris Davis: 92 wRC+
Caleb Joseph: 63 wRC+
Jonathan Schoop: 62 wRC+
It's worth mentioning that Joey Rickard posted a 131 wRC+ against lefties in 90 plate appearances last season, but who knows what to expect from him. The same should be said of Hyun Soo Kim, who went hitless in limited duty against lefties but who almost certainly will (and should) face them more next season.
Schoop has been particularly terrible against lefties, and yet he occasionally bats second when a southpaw is on the mound.
It seems obvious that the Orioles want Mark Trumbo back. The two sides still seem to be far apart on money, and the Orioles have good reason not to give in. Trumbo had a strong offensive season last year as a power bat from the right side. But it's not even clear that he'd help in the hitting lefties category. Coming in, Trumbo had the reputation as someone who crushes lefties. And yet, he posted a wRC+ of just 71 last year. Splits can fluctuate from year to year, but it was odd to see Trumbo struggle mightily against them. If the O's bring Trumbo back, it should be as a DH only. But he's still far from a sure thing.
If Trey Mancini plays more, maybe he'll produce against lefties. Or maybe the O's will add someone else who hits lefties well, though it's frequently discussed that the Orioles want a left-handed outfielder in right field. But for the most part, it doesn't really matter if the outfielder is right- or left-handed. The Orioles need someone who's actually an outfielder, period. That guy isn't Trumbo.
The Orioles were very right-handed last year, and they could be even more so this year. Yet, despite adding Castillo, they still could be pretty awful against lefties.
Still, despite being very right-handed, most of the O's don't produce against left-handed pitching. See the career numbers below:
Manny Machado: 111 wRC+
J.J. Hardy: 102 wRC+
Adam Jones: 95 wRC+
Chris Davis: 92 wRC+
Caleb Joseph: 63 wRC+
Jonathan Schoop: 62 wRC+
It's worth mentioning that Joey Rickard posted a 131 wRC+ against lefties in 90 plate appearances last season, but who knows what to expect from him. The same should be said of Hyun Soo Kim, who went hitless in limited duty against lefties but who almost certainly will (and should) face them more next season.
Schoop has been particularly terrible against lefties, and yet he occasionally bats second when a southpaw is on the mound.
It seems obvious that the Orioles want Mark Trumbo back. The two sides still seem to be far apart on money, and the Orioles have good reason not to give in. Trumbo had a strong offensive season last year as a power bat from the right side. But it's not even clear that he'd help in the hitting lefties category. Coming in, Trumbo had the reputation as someone who crushes lefties. And yet, he posted a wRC+ of just 71 last year. Splits can fluctuate from year to year, but it was odd to see Trumbo struggle mightily against them. If the O's bring Trumbo back, it should be as a DH only. But he's still far from a sure thing.
If Trey Mancini plays more, maybe he'll produce against lefties. Or maybe the O's will add someone else who hits lefties well, though it's frequently discussed that the Orioles want a left-handed outfielder in right field. But for the most part, it doesn't really matter if the outfielder is right- or left-handed. The Orioles need someone who's actually an outfielder, period. That guy isn't Trumbo.
The Orioles were very right-handed last year, and they could be even more so this year. Yet, despite adding Castillo, they still could be pretty awful against lefties.
15 December 2016
What To Know About Welington Castillo
Click here for Ryan Romano's archives.
Remember Matt Wieters? That's all we'll be able to do, now that the Orioles have bid him goodbye. With the acquisition of former Diamondbacks catcher Welington Castillo yesterday, Baltimore seems to have found a starter behind the plate for 2017, meaning the former fifth overall pick — the man of the incredible facts, the assassin of playoff base stealers, the returner from Tommy John surgery, the recipient of the last illicit pie, and the visitor of my alma mater — will no longer don the orange and black.
But enough about Wieters. He's old news! Castillo's taken his place now. The righty, who will turn 30 in April, has a career triple-slash of .255/.318/.416, translating to a 98 wRC+. He's accrued 9.7 fWAR over 1,904 plate appearances — although BP's WARP sees him as a 2.0-win player, for reasons the last item in this listicle will elucidate — and, like him or not, he's the probable 2017 starting Orioles catcher. With that in mind, let's break down what the brand-new Birds backstop brings to the ballclub. (Spoiler: not a whole lot.)
He doesn't have much plate discipline.
If the Orioles offense has one weakness, it's the strikeout: The club went down on strikes in 21.7 percent of its plate appearances this year, the ninth-highest level in baseball. They also didn't walk too often, with the 11th-lowest free pass rate at 7.7 percent. Castillo, you could say, is the quintessential Oriole — which isn't a particularly good thing.
Since he became a regular-ish player in 2012, Castillo has come to the dish 1,870 times. He's struck out in 24.8 percent of those and walked in 7.2 percent; the former is the 31st-highest* in the majors, the latter the 89th-lowest. In terms of bases on balls, he's not as bad as Jonathan Schoop or Adam Jones, and pitchers won't fan him as often as they will Chris Davis. Castillo's subpar production in both regards is nevertheless discouraging, reinforcing one of the more unsightly Orioles trends.
*Out of 241 players with at least 1,500 plate appearances.
As we'd suspect, this stems from a basic failure with pitch judgment. He's chased only 28.8 percent of pitches outside the strike zone, a respectable rate that's 102nd-lowest in that sample. The issue is that he's offered at only 60.0 percent of pitches inside the strike zone, which puts him 59th from the bottom. And to compound the issues, he places 77th from the top with a 10.1 percent swinging-strike rate.
Castillo has what appears to be a fairly common problem for hitters of his mold — he's a little too patient on outside pitches, for better or for worse:
When an adversary deals in the outer third of the strike zone, Castillo offers 59.4 percent of the time. On the area outside the strike zone, he swings at 31.4 percent of the pitches he sees. Plus, a whole ton of his whiffs are on pitches down and away, which is where a disproportionate amount of his pitches end up going. Unless he learns to judge these offerings a little better, Castillo will probably maintain his Oriole-esque strikeout and walk numbers, to the detriment of his new employer.
He hits the ball hard, but doesn't get much out of it — which could change.
Here's an interesting comparison. Recall that, since 2012, Castillo has a 7.2 percent walk rate and 24.7 percent strikeout rate. In that same span, Mark Trumbo did exactly as well in terms of free passes (7.2 percent), and slightly worse in terms of punchouts (25.7 percent). As the table below lays out, both hitters have very similar quality of contact numbers as well. Yet one of them has a superior ISO, which gives him the wRC+ edge:
So why don't their results match up? Why did Castillo sign for a maximum of $13 million over two years while Trumbo looks for $70 million over four? Well, putting aside defensive value — which I'll cover below — Castillo just seems to have gotten unlucky.
No, seriously! From 2012 to 2016, Trumbo hit 43.2 percent of his balls on the ground and 56.8 percent in the air; Castillo had a ground ball rate of 42.5 percent, and a fly ball/line drive rate of 57.5 percent. Trumbo made hard contact on 45.4 percent of those air balls; Castillo, on 44.2 percent. Trumbo pulled them to left field 28.4 percent of the time; Castillo, 28.1 percent. Yet Trumbo has a 272 wRC+ when he goes airborne (31st in the majors**), while Castillo languishes at 240 (82nd in the majors, and much closer to the MLB average of 210).
**Out of 273 players with at least 500 air balls.
It's not like Castillo played in ballparks that heavily favored pitchers. Chase Field is a bandbox, and Wrigley tends to play fairly neutral, particularly during the years Castillo spent there. The answer might just be, as mentioned, dumb luck — Castillo hasn't received all that much playing time, so the sample here isn't too big. If he can continue to get good wood, maybe he'll start to see his mediocre BABIP and ISO rise, and his shoddy plate discipline won't matter as much. Hey, it worked out pretty well for Trumbo!
He took the heat in 2016, but not the soft stuff.
In the same division as Aroldis Chapman and Craig Kimbrel, Orioles hitters need to be able to keep up with fastballs. The fear surrounding Hyun Soo Kim before the season was that he'd flounder against MLB's harder offerings, but as my colleague Matt Kremnitzer noted, he actually fared fine on fastballs while struggling against breaking and offspeed pitches. Based on Castillo's 2016 results, it looks like he might share that trait:
Data via FanGraphs' Pitch Type Linear Weights
Brooks gives us even more clarity on this disparity. In 238 at-bats ending with a fastball this season, Castillo hit .332 and slugged .550. By contrast, he had a sickly .175 average and .254 slugging percentage in the 177 at-bats ending with a slower offering. And the difference goes down to plate discipline, too. Castillo struck out 52 times and walked 27 times against fastballs; versus offspeed and breaking pitches, he racked up 69 Ks (nice) to a meager three BBs.
The issue seems to stem from Castillo's approach. When pitchers serve him a heater, he's more inclined to swing if it's up in the zone...
...whereas with slower pitches, he'll offer more frequently when they're lower:
As a power-ish hitter, Castillo does most of his damage up in the zone, where he can elevate the ball. That's the area where a good amount of fastballs head...and also the area that pretty much all breaking balls/offspeed pitches avoid.
Hitting hard pitches obviously has value — not many players can replicate that .332/.550 line. It won't make him a great hitter alone, though, and after a while, that hole will start to grow bigger as opponents exploit it. Back in April, Castillo told the Arizona Republic's Nick Piecoro he was "having rough moments recognizing the breaking pitch," which was evidently something pitchers started to pick up on:
So if Chapman decides to bust out his slider, or Kimbrel reaches back for a two-strike curveball, don't expect Castillo to accomplish much.
He really, really can't frame.
Why did we expend so many words in this post on Castillo's offense? Primarily because it's a lot more interesting than his defense. Earlier this month, Dan Duquette swore the Orioles would take pitch framing into account when selecting their catcher, yet they settled on this guy to replace Wieters:
During his five full seasons and 3,947.2 innings behind the dish, Castillo has cost his teams 62.1 runs via poor framing; on a rate basis, he's been worth -15.7 runs per 1,000 frames (i.e. innings). That makes him roughly the polar opposite of Caleb Joseph, who over the past three years has saved the O's 29.5 framing runs in 1,854.1 innings, averaging out to 15.9 per 1,000. As Jeff Sullivan explained at FanGraphs yesterday, Castillo's offensive respectability can't compensate for his defensive ineptitude, and Joseph's probably the better option going forward.
Really, I don't feel like dwelling on Castillo's defense. The Diamondbacks sure didn't — that's why they non-tendered him in favor of Jeff freaking Mathis. We know the O's will give him the lion's share of starts instead of Joseph; we know his deficiencies will mean Kevin Gausman, Dylan Bundy and co. will have a harder time snagging strikes. The farm system doesn't offer much hope for replacement receivers, so it looks like Baltimore will be stuck with a lot of strikes-turned-balls in 2017.
***
While there's some other stuff I haven't touched on here — Castillo has a significant platoon split, and he does a decent job at throwing out runners — this sums up his profile pretty well. For $6 million, the Orioles got themselves a possibly heavy-hitting, free-ish-swinging, slow-pitch-missing, non-framing catcher. Would they have been better served making Joseph and/or Francisco Pena the substitute for Wieters? Probably! They decided to take this route, though, so here we find ourselves.
Remember Matt Wieters? That's all we'll be able to do, now that the Orioles have bid him goodbye. With the acquisition of former Diamondbacks catcher Welington Castillo yesterday, Baltimore seems to have found a starter behind the plate for 2017, meaning the former fifth overall pick — the man of the incredible facts, the assassin of playoff base stealers, the returner from Tommy John surgery, the recipient of the last illicit pie, and the visitor of my alma mater — will no longer don the orange and black.
But enough about Wieters. He's old news! Castillo's taken his place now. The righty, who will turn 30 in April, has a career triple-slash of .255/.318/.416, translating to a 98 wRC+. He's accrued 9.7 fWAR over 1,904 plate appearances — although BP's WARP sees him as a 2.0-win player, for reasons the last item in this listicle will elucidate — and, like him or not, he's the probable 2017 starting Orioles catcher. With that in mind, let's break down what the brand-new Birds backstop brings to the ballclub. (Spoiler: not a whole lot.)
He doesn't have much plate discipline.
If the Orioles offense has one weakness, it's the strikeout: The club went down on strikes in 21.7 percent of its plate appearances this year, the ninth-highest level in baseball. They also didn't walk too often, with the 11th-lowest free pass rate at 7.7 percent. Castillo, you could say, is the quintessential Oriole — which isn't a particularly good thing.
Since he became a regular-ish player in 2012, Castillo has come to the dish 1,870 times. He's struck out in 24.8 percent of those and walked in 7.2 percent; the former is the 31st-highest* in the majors, the latter the 89th-lowest. In terms of bases on balls, he's not as bad as Jonathan Schoop or Adam Jones, and pitchers won't fan him as often as they will Chris Davis. Castillo's subpar production in both regards is nevertheless discouraging, reinforcing one of the more unsightly Orioles trends.
*Out of 241 players with at least 1,500 plate appearances.
As we'd suspect, this stems from a basic failure with pitch judgment. He's chased only 28.8 percent of pitches outside the strike zone, a respectable rate that's 102nd-lowest in that sample. The issue is that he's offered at only 60.0 percent of pitches inside the strike zone, which puts him 59th from the bottom. And to compound the issues, he places 77th from the top with a 10.1 percent swinging-strike rate.
Castillo has what appears to be a fairly common problem for hitters of his mold — he's a little too patient on outside pitches, for better or for worse:
When an adversary deals in the outer third of the strike zone, Castillo offers 59.4 percent of the time. On the area outside the strike zone, he swings at 31.4 percent of the pitches he sees. Plus, a whole ton of his whiffs are on pitches down and away, which is where a disproportionate amount of his pitches end up going. Unless he learns to judge these offerings a little better, Castillo will probably maintain his Oriole-esque strikeout and walk numbers, to the detriment of his new employer.
He hits the ball hard, but doesn't get much out of it — which could change.
Here's an interesting comparison. Recall that, since 2012, Castillo has a 7.2 percent walk rate and 24.7 percent strikeout rate. In that same span, Mark Trumbo did exactly as well in terms of free passes (7.2 percent), and slightly worse in terms of punchouts (25.7 percent). As the table below lays out, both hitters have very similar quality of contact numbers as well. Yet one of them has a superior ISO, which gives him the wRC+ edge:
| Player | Soft% | Hard% | ISO | BABIP | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castillo | 15.6% | 36.0% | .161 | .314 | 98 |
| Trumbo | 16.8% | 36.1% | .222 | .291 | 112 |
So why don't their results match up? Why did Castillo sign for a maximum of $13 million over two years while Trumbo looks for $70 million over four? Well, putting aside defensive value — which I'll cover below — Castillo just seems to have gotten unlucky.
No, seriously! From 2012 to 2016, Trumbo hit 43.2 percent of his balls on the ground and 56.8 percent in the air; Castillo had a ground ball rate of 42.5 percent, and a fly ball/line drive rate of 57.5 percent. Trumbo made hard contact on 45.4 percent of those air balls; Castillo, on 44.2 percent. Trumbo pulled them to left field 28.4 percent of the time; Castillo, 28.1 percent. Yet Trumbo has a 272 wRC+ when he goes airborne (31st in the majors**), while Castillo languishes at 240 (82nd in the majors, and much closer to the MLB average of 210).
**Out of 273 players with at least 500 air balls.
It's not like Castillo played in ballparks that heavily favored pitchers. Chase Field is a bandbox, and Wrigley tends to play fairly neutral, particularly during the years Castillo spent there. The answer might just be, as mentioned, dumb luck — Castillo hasn't received all that much playing time, so the sample here isn't too big. If he can continue to get good wood, maybe he'll start to see his mediocre BABIP and ISO rise, and his shoddy plate discipline won't matter as much. Hey, it worked out pretty well for Trumbo!
He took the heat in 2016, but not the soft stuff.
In the same division as Aroldis Chapman and Craig Kimbrel, Orioles hitters need to be able to keep up with fastballs. The fear surrounding Hyun Soo Kim before the season was that he'd flounder against MLB's harder offerings, but as my colleague Matt Kremnitzer noted, he actually fared fine on fastballs while struggling against breaking and offspeed pitches. Based on Castillo's 2016 results, it looks like he might share that trait:
| Year | Hard Runs | Breaking Runs | Offspeed Runs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 4.1 | -4.0 | 2.2 |
| 2013 | 8.3 | -3.0 | -2.7 |
| 2014 | -1.8 | -0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2015 | -0.8 | -3.3 | 3.5 |
| 2016 | 14.3 | -9.3 | -3.9 |
Brooks gives us even more clarity on this disparity. In 238 at-bats ending with a fastball this season, Castillo hit .332 and slugged .550. By contrast, he had a sickly .175 average and .254 slugging percentage in the 177 at-bats ending with a slower offering. And the difference goes down to plate discipline, too. Castillo struck out 52 times and walked 27 times against fastballs; versus offspeed and breaking pitches, he racked up 69 Ks (nice) to a meager three BBs.
The issue seems to stem from Castillo's approach. When pitchers serve him a heater, he's more inclined to swing if it's up in the zone...
...whereas with slower pitches, he'll offer more frequently when they're lower:
As a power-ish hitter, Castillo does most of his damage up in the zone, where he can elevate the ball. That's the area where a good amount of fastballs head...and also the area that pretty much all breaking balls/offspeed pitches avoid.
Hitting hard pitches obviously has value — not many players can replicate that .332/.550 line. It won't make him a great hitter alone, though, and after a while, that hole will start to grow bigger as opponents exploit it. Back in April, Castillo told the Arizona Republic's Nick Piecoro he was "having rough moments recognizing the breaking pitch," which was evidently something pitchers started to pick up on:
So if Chapman decides to bust out his slider, or Kimbrel reaches back for a two-strike curveball, don't expect Castillo to accomplish much.
He really, really can't frame.
Why did we expend so many words in this post on Castillo's offense? Primarily because it's a lot more interesting than his defense. Earlier this month, Dan Duquette swore the Orioles would take pitch framing into account when selecting their catcher, yet they settled on this guy to replace Wieters:
During his five full seasons and 3,947.2 innings behind the dish, Castillo has cost his teams 62.1 runs via poor framing; on a rate basis, he's been worth -15.7 runs per 1,000 frames (i.e. innings). That makes him roughly the polar opposite of Caleb Joseph, who over the past three years has saved the O's 29.5 framing runs in 1,854.1 innings, averaging out to 15.9 per 1,000. As Jeff Sullivan explained at FanGraphs yesterday, Castillo's offensive respectability can't compensate for his defensive ineptitude, and Joseph's probably the better option going forward.
Really, I don't feel like dwelling on Castillo's defense. The Diamondbacks sure didn't — that's why they non-tendered him in favor of Jeff freaking Mathis. We know the O's will give him the lion's share of starts instead of Joseph; we know his deficiencies will mean Kevin Gausman, Dylan Bundy and co. will have a harder time snagging strikes. The farm system doesn't offer much hope for replacement receivers, so it looks like Baltimore will be stuck with a lot of strikes-turned-balls in 2017.
***
While there's some other stuff I haven't touched on here — Castillo has a significant platoon split, and he does a decent job at throwing out runners — this sums up his profile pretty well. For $6 million, the Orioles got themselves a possibly heavy-hitting, free-ish-swinging, slow-pitch-missing, non-framing catcher. Would they have been better served making Joseph and/or Francisco Pena the substitute for Wieters? Probably! They decided to take this route, though, so here we find ourselves.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)