A new low in the Orioles nightmare season

Bad baseball seasons happen. In sports, and in life, someone has to win and someone has to lose. Between 2012 and 2016 the Orioles did a lot of winning. It was natural for the pendulum to swing in the opposite direction. But the ferocity with which that pendulum has swung is what has caught many of us off guard.

The 2018 Orioles will go down as the worst team in franchise history and one of the worst teams in recent baseball history. But "worst" in this context refers to win-loss record. Wins, as many people say, is the most important stat. That's true in the standings, but there are many different ways to win a game. Just as teams can have fortunate seasons where they succeed in a high percentage of close contests, the opposite can happen as well. That is not what is occurring to these Orioles.

The entire season has been a disaster, but this past weekend in Tampa Bay may have been an all-time low. The Orioles were crushed, in every phase of the game, by a solid, above-average Rays team. There were weird wild pitches, numerous fielding miscues and seemingly an overall lack of execution on the fundamentals of the game. Caleb Joseph publicly made his opinion known, verbalizing what many had already known to be true.

What makes this season frustrating is not the number of losses, but rather the inability of the players and coaches to identify flaws in their game and implement a change for the better. There has been no indication that anyone involved at the club understands what's wrong. Dylan Bundy continues to implode on the mound, routine plays continue to be botched, and sometimes it feels like no one in the bullpen can get opposing hitters out. Instead it is rather, rinse, repeat.

Perhaps the sad truth is that there is just too little talent to work with on this roster. That feels like a poor and convenient excuse. If that is the reasoning for such poor baseball, then it should make for some easy personnel decisions in the offseason.

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Caleb Joseph Is The Favorite To Start Now, And That's More Than Fine

It's clear by now that the biggest concern for the Orioles roster is the lack of starting pitching options. If the O's don't do anything significant to fix the rotation, then maybe none of the rest of the roster issues really matter that much. Still, the O's could use a defensive outfielder and an upgrade at utility infielder, with maybe one or both hopefully being decent left-handed bats. They could also try to part ways with Mark Trumbo to create some lineup flexibility, but that won't be easy.

But even though Welington Castillo predictably declined his $7 million player option for 2018, catcher is not a position the O's really have to fret about. That's because they have Caleb Joseph.

Joseph doesn't have Castillo's prowess with the bat, but he's far from a disaster. Besides a disastrous, RBI-less 2016 campaign that included a painful injury that certain O's beat reporters were rarely hesitant to mention, Joseph has mostly been around the MLB average mark for catchers.

Caleb Joseph wRC+ (and MLB average wRC+ for catchers)
2014: 71 (93)
2015: 88 (85)
2016: 8 (87)
2017: 82 (89)
Data via FanGraphs

You might not be thrilled with that. But combined with what Joseph brings to the table defensively, a league average bat is more than acceptable.

By DRS data, Joseph has been a highly touted defender behind the plate in his four seasons (+32 from 2014-2017). He's been above average overall in terms of throwing out opposing baserunners, though he was below average last season (though, to be fair, he did have to catch nearly 30 more innings of Ubaldo Jimenez, who's notoriously slow to the plate and easier to steal off of). He's also been a strong pitch-caller and good at blocking pitches in the dirt.

FanGraphs does not use UZR to measure catcher defense and instead lists DRS data. And while DRS data does apparently factor in "handling of the pitching staff via things like pitch framing and pitch calling," it's not as well regarded as framing data at Baseball Prospectus. Here's how Joseph ranks in FRAA (framing runs above average):

Caleb Joseph framing runs above average
2014: 15.2 (7th)
2015: 10.8 (11th)
2016: 7.8 (13th)
2017: 13.1 (8th)
Data via Baseball Prospectus

He's not the best, but he's pretty good and is clearly above average when it comes to adding extra strikes for his battery mate.

Considering everything, it's not surprising that BP lists Joseph as being worth more in his four seasons (5.8 WARP) than Baseball-Reference (4.1 bWAR) and FanGraphs (1.7 fWAR). Even if pitch framing is becoming a skill that's more difficult to carry over from year to year, Joseph has stayed pretty consistent in his career. And if he's able to maintain that level of production the next few years, all the better.

In Joseph, the Orioles have a good pitch-framer with good enough throwing, blocking, and hitting skills who is under team control for three more seasons. He made $700,000 last season after losing to the O's in arbitration, and as a Super Two player, he still has three more arbitration years remaining.

The O's are likely to have a patchwork pitching staff next year and beyond, and it won't hurt to have someone behind the plate for 100 or so games to aid their hurlers a bit. And even if pitch framing is not something that's easy to teach, it couldn't hurt Chance Sisco's defensive development as the backup to hopefully learn something from Joseph. Maybe that's wishful thinking, and of course there's no way of knowing what exactly Sisco will offer in 2017 (surely more offensively than defensively), but a Joseph-Sisco tandem could be a good and interesting combination.

Caleb Joseph Has Recovered Nicely

At the plate, Caleb Joseph was about as bad as you could be last season. It was a painful year for him, and it's unknown exactly how much of an effect the injury had on his performance. So far this season, there are two noteworthy items for Joseph. First, he's healthy. And second, he's hitting extremely well for a backup catcher.

Joseph already has 21 more plate appearances than last year, so let's take a look at his 2016 vs. 2017:

2016: 141 PA, 6 wRC+, -0.9 fWAR
2017: 162 PA, 108 wRC+, 0.8 fWAR

Out of all catchers with at least 100 plate appearances, Joseph's 108 wRC+ is tied for 12th. Welington Castillo is 24th with a 91 wRC+. And, just for fun, Matt Wieters (71 wRC+) is tied for 40th out of 52.

Yes, as it's worth pointing out again, Joseph had a wRC+ of 6 last year. Six!!! And, notably, he didn't drive in a single run. It was an anomaly, it didn't make sense, and it was kind of funny (not to Joseph, of course).

So what's new for Joseph this year? Let's dig a little deeper. First, it's hard to ignore his BABIP increase of 164 points from last year to this year. Right now, Joseph has a BABIP of .385. You don't need me to tell you that isn't likely to stay so high. Still, if anyone was due some better fortune, it was probably Joseph. It also helps that he's hitting the ball harder (32.5 Hard% in 2017 vs. 21.7% in 2016).

And not only is Joseph hitting the ball harder, but he's pulling it more as well. Just take a look at his spray heatmaps in 2016 vs. 2017, courtesy of Baseball Savant:

Spray Heatmap for 2016

Spray Heatmap for 2017

That's less of an up-the-middle/opposite-field approach and a lot more pulled baseballs that are hit with increased authority.

Joseph has talked about having more confidence and putting in extra work, and things are going well for him right now. In all likelihood, with a BABIP regression, Joseph is closer to the range of 71-87 wRC+ he posted in 2014 and 2015. That may not be amazing, but when accounting for his pitch-framing skills, that makes a more-than-useful catcher, let alone one that's being used in a backup role. And, obviously, the dreadful 6 wRC+ season seems very much like a fluke.

Joseph is clearly the superior pitch-framer to Castillo, and he's currently performing better with the bat as well. Joseph's rebound has been one of the bright spots of a difficult O's season, and he's a major reason why the O's would be just fine if they're able to find a taker for Castillo and his 2018 player option (which may be no small feat).

Wade Miley's Winning Combo: Great Command And Great Framing

Russell Martin is many things — a Canadian, a three-true-outcomes hitter, a strong defender — but above all else, he's an excellent judge of pitch location. Since 2007, the first year of PITCHf/x data, Martin has swung at 20.3 percent of pitches outside the strike zone, ranking 27th among 567 qualified hitters. (For what it's worth, he's also swung at 59.2 percent of pitches inside the strike zone, which is 124th in that sample.) Maybe it's because he plays behind the plate, or maybe it's just an innate talent; whatever the reason, he can usually tell the difference between balls and strikes.

We can understand, then, why he got a little miffed here:



With the Jays trailing the O's 5-3 in the sixth inning, Martin worked the count to 2-2 against Wade Miley. The left-hander uncorked a sinker that fell right on the edge of the PITCHf/x-defined strike zone, and though Martin checked his swing, Brian Knight rung him up. It was the eighth strikeout of the night for Miley, continuing an unforeseen run of dominance from the Orioles starter.

Heading into the year, most of us didn't expect much from Miley. FanGraphs' Depth Charts projected the southpaw to put up a 4.48 ERA and 4.34 FIP over 169.0 innings — the marks of a wholly uninspiring, mid- to back-of-the-rotation arm. Yet over his first three starts, Miley has earned a sterling 1.89 ERA and 3.15 FIP. While his walk rate (11.1) is elevated and his ground ball rate (48.7 percent) is in line with his career average, he's struck out 33.3 percent of opposing hitters. Even in this young season, that ranks fourth in the majors.

But wait. Looking at his PITCHf/x plate discipline metrics, we don't see much improvement from past years. If anything, Miley has performed worse in 2017:

Year(s)	O-Swing%	Z-Swing%	Swing%	Contact%	SwStr%	Zone%
2011-16	30.7%	63.5%	45.4%	81.0%	8.6%	44.8%
2017	31.3%	66.7%	45.7%	81.2%	8.6%	40.7 %

Miley's whiff rate hasn't budged from past years, and he has the unsavory combination of fewer pitches in the zone and more swings in the zone. How, then, has he fanned a third of the batters he's faced?

Well, aside from fortuitous sequencing — which is to say, luck — Miley's accumulated a lot more strikes than you'd expect, based on his zone and O-Swing rates. The trend has affected each of his starts:

Start	Pitches	Strikes	xStrikes
4/9	100	56	51
4/14	101	66	61
4/20	101	70	67
Total	302	192	179

xStrikes = Pitches * (1 - (1 - O-Swing%) * (1 - Zone%))

Getting those extra calls has given Miley an above-average strike rate (63.6 percent) and looking-strike rate (28.1 percent). That's made him a power pitcher, of sorts, and resulted in a lot of weird looks like the one Martin showed above.

So does Miley stand any chance any chance of keeping this up? Or will his greatness fade away, like so many other early-season success stories? (Remember April 2016 MVP Joey Rickard?) He probably won't have a higher strikeout rate than Max Scherzer by the end of the year, but Miley has a couple of factors working in his favor.

Baseball Prospectus debuted a metric called CSAA in February, which isolates a pitcher's ability to get called strikes as a proxy for his command. I'll let BP explain the details:

A pitcher with good command should be more predictable for the catcher—their pitches often end up in the locations, and with the movement that the catcher expects. This skill results in easier receiving for catchers, and additional called strikes for the pitcher. Once we aggregate the data cross thousands of pitches, CSAA is able to tell us whether a pitcher is reliably hitting his spots.

By this metric, Miley's always excelled. This year, though, he's taken things to another level:

As of this writing, Miley's 4.59 percent CSAA ranks third in the majors, trailing fellow left-handers (and past Cy Young winners) Dallas Keuchel and Clayton Kershaw. For whatever reason — maybe he's better with his sinker, which he's used more often this year — Miley's command has taken a huge leap forward in 2017, and his strikeout rate has spiked in turn.

But command, I'd argue, is not the most significant variable at play. As noted, Miley's command is nothing new (albeit not to this extent), yet he's never overperformed his expected strike rate like this. The bigger factor in his 2017 success seems to be the second half of the called-strike tandem — the man behind the plate.

While the Orioles brought in Welington Castillo and his lead glove to start at catcher, he hasn't manned the position every day. Caleb Joseph has gotten the nod four times this season — on April 9, 14, 20, and 22. If you've been checking the dates in that table above, you'll notice something: Joseph has caught all 19.0 innings Miley has thrown in 2017. Needless to say, it's shown.

In case you went into a coma during the mid-aughts to avoid another miserable year of Orioles baseball and just woke up, I'll fill you in on the secret around Baltimore: That Caleb Joseph fella? He's pretty good at framing. This year, he's posted a .029 CSAA, the highest in the majors. Since his 2014 debut, he's saved the Orioles 27.1 runs in less than 2,000 innings.

Miley certainly appreciates what Joseph has done for him, as he explained to PressBoxOnline's Rich Dubroff:

"Not to knock at Welington. I've thrown to him. He's outstanding as well," Miley said. "Something about Caleb from spring training. I don't know what it was. I know he works hard back there for me. We've got a good thing going right now. 

"As a pitcher, you've got a catcher back there working really hard for you, and you see that. You kind of build off of that, build off the energy you see him giving, and you go from there."

Whether "works hard" is just boilerplate athlete talk or a subtle nod to Joseph's framing prowess/dig at Castillo's framing ineptitude, we'll never know for sure.

Earlier in that piece, Buck Showalter swears there's nothing to the Miley/Joseph pairing, and that he doesn't believe in the idea of personal catchers. If Castillo catches Miley more often, it'll certainly put a dent in his numbers; still, it shouldn't sink him entirely. Joseph has worked with some pitchers more than others — last year, he caught a large chunk of Ubaldo Jimenez's innings, more so than any other Orioles regular:

Pitcher	Joseph Innings	Innings	Joseph%
Kevin Gausman	27.0	179.2	15.0%
Chris Tillman	23.2	172.0	13.8%
Ubaldo Jimenez	57.2	142.1	40.5%
Yovani Gallardo	25.0	117.1	21.2%
Dylan Bundy	32.0	109.2	29.2%

Some catchers seem to have a rapport with a given pitcher (or are just better at catching), and while Showalter understandably doesn't want to disrupt his schedule to accommodate that, he'll tweak things so guys like Jimenez and Miley can throw a few more innings to their backstop of choice. That helped Jimenez a couple of years ago, and it could work in Miley's favor this season.

As Martin and the Blue Jays have spiraled out of contention, the Orioles are, once again, flying high in April. No team in the American League has a better record than the Birds, and Miley has been the team's second-best starter to this point (can't knock Bundy, I'm afraid). His ERA won't remain below two for the entire season, or below three, but it's clear that he's not the 6.17-ERA starter we saw in the second half of 2016. Someone with command like this, who pitches to a catcher like Joseph, is bound to rack up strikeouts and keep runs off the board.

A Decade of Orioles AAA Catchers

Joe Reisel's Archives

Audry Perez (on defense) is one of the more prominent Norfolk Tides catchers of the Orioles' Era.
Photo courtesy of Les Treagus / Norfolk Tides.

The Norfolk Tides moved into their current stadium, Harbor Park, in 1993, so 2017 is the 25th season in which they've played there. For their first fifteen Harbor Park years, the Tides were affiliated with the New York Mets; they became an Orioles affiliate after the 2006 season. To celebrate the 25th anniversary of Harbor Park, and to remind Hampton Roads-area baseball fans that the 2017 season is approaching, the Tides' staff devised an "All-Time Harbor Park Team" promotion. As you might expect, the team selects finalists at each position from among Tides players; fans can vote on social media for their choice; the one with the most votes is named to the team. (See the Tides web site for more details.)

I will be starting my twelfth season as an milb.com datacaster for the Tides; I began during the last season of the Mets era and have continued through the entire Tides era. (I started my scoring for Baseball Info Solutions in my third season of datacasting.) In fact, I arrived in Hampton Roads in 1993, which coincidentally was the Tides' first season in Harbor Park. Before I became a datacaster, though, I only attended a few games a season; since then, and especially after I started scoring for BIS, I've attended around 45 games a season.

The first position voted upon was catcher, and the winner was, not really surprisingly, Matt Wieters. Although it wasn't surprising that Wieters would win a popular vote for All-Time Harbor Park catcher, it is noteworthy that Wieters has caught a total of 28 games as a Tide, presumably fewer than that actually at Harbor Park. When I started thinking about who would be more appropriate, I realized that although I remembered to a greater or lesser degree the Tides' catchers, especially of the Orioles' era, I didn't really know much about them. This article will look at the Tides' catchers during the Orioles' era.

Forty-two players have played catcher in at least one game for the Tides. Two of them are young players who caught a few games last season - Austin Wynns and Chance Sisco. Two others are not-so-young players who first caught Tides' games last season - Francisco Pena and Chris O'Brien. While I have a strong opinion about their probable future, my review showed me that I didn't know quire as much about players as I thought I did. So, I will not pigeonhole Pena or O'Brien.

Before I present my observations that may be more generally applicable to every team's AAA catchers, I'll share some Norfolk-Tides-in-the-Orioles-era catcher-specific trivia:

• Audry Perez has caught the most total games, 153.
• Omir Santos holds the single-season record for most games caught, 81 in 2008.
• Besides Perez, only two other catchers have caught 100 or more games - Luis Exposito and Steve Clevenger.
• Fifteen catchers have caught games in more than one season.
• Only one game has been caught by a player on a rehabilitation assignment - Matt Wieters in 2015.

Now, for the more general observations. The catchers fall into five general categories. All of my player classifications are subjective and that I don't have any defined standards or cutoffs. So, while you might disagree about how a specific classification, I contend that there would be no dispute over 90% of the players.

The first category is players on their way up to somewhat substantial major-league careers. Surprisingly, only three players fall into that category, and two are borderline. The three are Matt Wieters, Eli Whiteside, and Caleb Joseph. As I mentioned above, Wieters also caught a game while on a rehabilitation assignment, and Joseph was sent down last season during his struggles.

The second category is players who had somewhat substantial major-league careers, but who bounced between AAA and the majors. Two players fall into that category, although Caleb Joseph might also eventually wind up here. The other two - both borderline - are Steve Clevenger and Taylor Teagarden.

The third category is players who had somewhat substantial major-league careers, but are playing AAA after their major-league careers are (mostly) finished and are hanging on. Seven players fall into that category; I won't list them all but they include Alberto Castillo, Ben Davis, Ronny Paulino, and Chris Snyder.

The fourth category is players who are fringe major-leaguers, who had insubstantial careers, or AAA players. Fourteen players fall into that category; typical examples include J.R. House, Craig Tatum, John Hester, and Brian Ward.

The fifth category might be called desperation catchers, players who either aren't really AAA players - such as Morgan Clendenin, Zach Booker, and Allen de San Miguel - or who aren't really catchers - Mike Costanzo and Brandon Snyder. These guys catch a few games - no more than ten in a single season - when injuries or callups require a promotion for the duration of the emergency or when an in-game crisis occurs. Ten catchers fall into that category.

It's obvious that very few catchers have passed through Norfolk on their way to long, successful big-league careers. I think we all sort of knew that. The Orioles aren't a player-development factory; and Matt Wieters has been entrenched in Baltimore since 2009. (Did you remember that Ramon Hernandez was the regular catcher before Wieters arrived in 2009? And that the Orioles traded Hernandez in December of 2008 for players, one of whom was current Dodger third baseman Justin Turner? I digress.)

Another noteworthy trend is that the Orioles have moved away from veteran catchers with substantial big-league experience. While they relied heavily on that type of player in 2007-2009, the last one they've had was Chris Snyder in 2013. They've relied more on the fringier types. Perhaps with Caleb Joseph on the big-league team, they've felt less of a need to have an experienced catcher stashed at AAA. Or, perhaps with Joseph around, veterans with big-league experience don't want to sign with the Orioles because they think they have a better shot at playing time elsewhere. Or perhaps there just aren't as many of those guys around.

I was surprised that only two of these catchers - J.R. House and Jake Fox - are what I call "bat-only" catchers. These are players who caught as amateurs but aren't good enough defensively to stay at the position. If their bats are good enough, they switch to another position and have a big-league career. If their bats aren't good enough - like House and Fox - they continue to catch, hoping that their combination of bat and ability to catch allows them to stay on a roster. I expected Norfolk to have had more of them.

Matt Wieters was certainly the best player to catch for the Norfolk Tides while they were an Orioles' affiliate. I still have a hard time swallowing the idea that someone who caught 28 games should be the catcher on an All-Time team. So perhaps Wieters really does deserve to be the catcher on the All-Time Orioles Era Norfolk Tides team..

What Should The Orioles Do At Catcher?

The Orioles are poised to move on without the services of Matt Wieters, who will likely command a three- or four-year deal in free agency (despite recently cutting his forearm in a household accident). And that's probably the best move for both parties; Wieters should take advantage of the opportunity to get paid, and the Orioles don't need to get sentimental and overpay for the services of Wieters, who is a fine, not great, option at catcher and whose production can partly be replicated for less money.

Well, if not Wieters, then who? If you believe Dan Connolly's sources, that player might be Nick Hundley:

The best fit, without a doubt, is Colorado’s Nick Hundley, who spent part of 2014 with the Orioles and performed well. Pitchers liked throwing to him, he got along well with Joseph and Wieters and he made a real connection with catching instructor John Russell.

The Orioles definitely have an interest in a reunion with Hundley, according to sources.

Ken Rosenthal later solidified the team's interest with this tweet:

Hundley, in view of one source, is #Orioles’ Plan A. Team’s interest in him first reported by @danconnolly2016.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) November 21, 2016

The easy joke (and one I made, because I like low-hanging fruit) is that the team viewing Hundley as Plan A is comical/worrisome. Now is always a great time to panic!

Anyway, as I see it, here are the Orioles' catching options this offseason:

• Sign a catcher to a multiyear deal (Jason Castro, Alex Avila, maybe even Wieters, etc.)
• Ink Hundley or someone else to a one-year deal and give Chance Sisco more time
• Move ahead with Francisco Pena (or Audry Perez) in a backup role
• Begin the year with Sisco on the major league roster and give him the backup job

That last option almost certainly won't happen. The first one probably won't either, especially since there is strong competition for Castro's services. As a platoon bat with Joseph, Castro and Avila both make sense (Castro moreso). To his credit, Castro also rates well as a pitch framer, as does Joseph. Wieters and Avila do not, and neither does Hundley. There are a handful of other catchers out there, but most of them are not enticing options.

It's not hard to understand the clubhouse and familiarity aspect with Hundley. And we're talking about someone who is going to split duties with Joseph, not a full-time player. However, Joseph has never played in more than 100 games in any single season, so it's not like we're discussing an insignificant amount of work. Whoever the other catcher ends up being, he's going to play a lot. And anything more than a one-year deal for Hundley should be out of the question. 

The second and third bullets above are most likely. And if you believe in Pena's pitch-framing abilities, then just going with him and Joseph wouldn't be the worst decision. Neither is very good with the bat, but having two guys who are good pitch framers, have strong throwing arms, and don't make a bunch of money would free up some room for the Orioles to do something else.

Who Were The Five Biggest Surprises For The Orioles In 2016?

For the most part, the Orioles did what you expected this past season. The lineup hit a ton of home runs. The starting rotation wasn't good, but it did enough to enable the Orioles to make the playoffs. And the bullpen was excellent. But every season has its share of surprises, and these were the five biggest ones for the 2016 season.

Mark Trumbo

The Orioles didn't bring Trumbo aboard to steal a bunch of bases or transform into a useful defensive outfielder. He was added because of his ability to hit the ball out of the ballpark. And he did that -- 47 times, to be exact. That was four more times than the next closest player (Nelson Cruz, of course). Trumbo continued the run of O's players leading the majors in home runs. The last time that didn't happen was in 2012, when Miguel Cabrera finished with 44 taters.

The Orioles essentially picked Trumbo up in a salary dump, and he rewarded them by matching his best offensive season in 2012 (123 wRC+ this year, and a 124 wRC+ in 2012). Not bad. He also excelled primarily versus right-handed pitching, which was particularly odd, but definitely welcome.

Hyun Soo Kim

We've been over this, but a quick recap: Buck Showalter didn't want Kim on the major league roster to start the year. The Orioles explored getting rid of him before the season even started.  He was booed on opening day. Kim barely played in March and April. But whenever Kim played, he hit, forcing his way onto the lineup card. His .382 on-base percentage was the best among O's regulars by nearly 40 points. His 119 wRC+ was second best on the team behind Manny Machado and Trumbo.

His wins above replacement numbers (0.9 on FanGraphs and 0.6 on Baseball-Reference) don't look great, mostly held down by his ugly advanced defensive metrics in left field. I wouldn't try to tell you that Kim is a good outfielder, but I don't think he's 13 runs below average (according to Defensive Runs Saved data). Even still, Kim is under contract for one more year at around $4 million, and that deal is easily one of the best Dan Duquette has ever made.

Brad Brach

Did you see Brach's season coming? I didn't. There were signs that Brach was going to be good; his 2015 was certainly more than many fans anticipated. And yet, he took another step forward this season. After posting a 2.72 ERA and 3.47 FIP in 2015, Brach improved with a 2.05 ERA and 2.92 FIP this year. He saw a slight uptick in strikeouts while also cutting his walks by about 1.5 per nine innings.

Did Brach wear down in the second half? Maybe. A .211 BABIP in the first half of the season, followed by a .346, might do a better job of explaining some of his second-half struggles, especially since his strikeout and walk numbers were about the same. Still, Brach stepped up in a major way while Darren O'Day missed a chunk of the year battling injuries, and he even made the all-star team. It's hard to ask for much more than that from someone who was acquired for then-minor leaguer Devin Jones.

Dylan Bundy

Any rational O's fan only wanted to see one thing from Bundy in 2016: him escape the season without injury. But not only did Bundy do that, but he started 14 games in the second half and finished the year with almost 110 innings pitched. Before the year, Showalter said the O's wanted to get between 60-75 innings out of Bundy. Mission accomplished, and then some.

As a starter, Bundy posted a 4.52 ERA and sometimes struggled to get through the fifth inning. Nothing about that is surprising, though, and those are actually encouraging numbers for someone many weren't sure would ever throw a meaningful pitch in the majors again. You can't be too sure how long Bundy is ever going to stay healthy, but for now he's fine, and it's at least moderately exciting that he's exploring adding the cutter back to his pitch arsenal.

Caleb Joseph

There are a few other players you could easily include here, but I went with Joseph, who was maybe the O's worst player even when factoring in his limited playing time. Joseph finished the year with a fWAR of -0.9, edging out Joey Rickard (-0.7) for worst on the team. He didn't hit at all, ending the year with a wRC+ of 6 and without a driving in a run in 141 plate appearances.

I don't think anyone expected Joseph to be any kind of force with the bat, and anything around his earlier numbers from 2014 or 2015 would certainly have been accepted. Now, with the strong possibility of Matt Wieters leaving via free agency, Joseph, even with his framing skills and strong arm, is no longer the sure thing to receive a majority of the work behind the plate. The O's could bite the bullet and bring Wieters back on a multi-year deal, or they could look outside the organization for another catcher (Jon has been talking about the possible fit of Jason Castro for much of the season). But the sunny outlook for Joseph is mostly gone.

Honorable mentions: Joey Rickard, Donnie Hart, Trey Mancini, Michael Bourn

Caleb Joseph Is Having One Of The Worst Offensive Seasons In Orioles' History

Do you remember Geronimo Gil? You should. His name is fun to say and he had a strong arm. He also could not hit. Hitting well is not a requirement for backup catchers, who are more sought after for their defensive skills. Still, you don't want an absolute zero in that spot (or any spot). That's essentially what the Orioles have received out of Caleb Joseph this year.

For the Orioles in the Expansion Era (since 1961), there have been some truly terrible offensive performances. Every team is forced to use bad hitters from time to time. Still, in that time span, nine O's hitters completed seasons in which they received at least 100 plate appearances and posted a batting average of .200 or lower and an on-base percentage of .230 or lower.

Here's the list:

Rk	Player	OPS ▴	BA	OBP	PA	Year	Tm	G	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SLG
1	Jackie Gutierrez	.414	.186	.207	152	1986	BAL	61	145	8	27	0	4	3	27	.207
2	Caleb Joseph	.422	.178	.221	138	2016	BAL	47	129	7	23	0	0	7	27	.202
3	Mark Belanger	.442	.174	.224	205	1967	BAL	69	184	19	32	1	10	12	46	.217
4	Freddie Bynum	.444	.179	.220	121	2008	BAL	40	112	13	20	0	8	5	31	.223
5	Juan Bell	.450	.172	.201	223	1991	BAL	100	209	26	36	1	15	8	51	.249
6	Glenn Davis	.460	.177	.230	123	1993	BAL	30	113	8	20	1	9	7	29	.230
7	Lenn Sakata	.476	.191	.221	168	1984	BAL	81	157	23	30	3	11	6	15	.255
8	Sam Bowens	.495	.163	.199	222	1965	BAL	84	203	16	33	7	20	10	41	.296
9	Geronimo Gil	.532	.192	.220	134	2005	BAL	64	125	7	24	4	17	5	23	.312

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/23/2016.

There's Gil, who was terrible in 2005 but not quite as bad as the rest of the group. And there's Freddie Bynum, who joins Gil and Joseph as the only other player in the 2000s. Joseph slides into the No. 2 spot on the list, and he also has the lowest slugging percentage of all nine players. Not only could Joseph end up at the very top (or bottom) of this list, but he could complete the season without driving in a single run. That's... insanely difficult to do.

Catcher is a demanding position; there's no arguing that. So it's not surprising that generally teams' worst offensive options get stuck there. For example, the league average shortstop in 2016 has a wRC+ of 93. That's second lowest (not counting pitchers), above catcher at 87. Caleb Joseph, meanwhile, has a wRC+ of 9 -- the very worst in all of baseball (min. 100 PAs).

It's been a painful year for Joseph, both at the plate and behind it. He still has a very good and accurate arm and is an above average pitch framer, but if he's even close to this bad offensively again, he might not find himself in the majors for much longer.

Cup of jO's: Caleb Joseph is Nearing History

Caleb Joseph has had a remarkable year.  Accidentally, he has found himself challenging a better mark than Good.  That is, Gene Good.  Good carries the misfortune of logging the most plate appearances in a season for a positional player without managing a Run Batted In.  It is a mark that is rather astounding, but not exactly surprising as the dead ball era is littered with batters who hit poorly and do not appear to accomplish all that much.

As one might expect the second most plate appearances in a season without a Run Batted In belongs to another player of the dead ball era, Bobby Messenger.  While Good played for a miserable Boston team, Messenger actually player for a respectable White Sox club.  Both outfielders, Messenger was a speedy player who was capable of beating out groundballs and routinely scored whenever he was on base.  He is a kind of guy you simply cannot imagine would be unlucky enough to be without an RBI in some fashion.  Whereas Good was simply bad.

Joseph comes in at third most plate appearances without a Run Batted In.  He finds himself a little unique in that he is, more or less, a veteran.  Good and Messenger were both rookies given extended looks.  Joseph maintains his place because he has been able to be passable at the plate in years past and excel behind the plate.  He also is a manager favorite, which tends to play a role in how one finds job security as a backup catcher.

That said, Joseph must be making coaches and front office staff question whether he is an actual piece for the future.  Before this season, there was some talk that Joseph would be a fringe All Star catcher as long as he was physical enough to crouch behind the plate for more than 100 games a season (most scouts I have talked to think he cannot shoulder a starting catcher load).  As this season reaches an end, one might think that Joseph might actually have played himself off the active roster for 2017.

Yes, the defense is still there.  No, it is not quite as remarkable as it was in his first season.  Teams have quickly come to realize the value of a catcher who frames a pitch well and that has decreased his value.  If his bat fails to show any glimmer, then Joseph might find himself beginning the year in Norfolk or even another clubhouse.

Position Players with most PA in a Season without an RBI

Player	PA	RBI	Year	Tm	BA	OBP	SLG
Gene Good	135	0	1906	BSN	.151	.246	.151
Bobby Messenger	130	0	1909	CHW	.170	.268	.196
Caleb Joseph	124	0	2016	BAL	.188	.234	.205

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/7/2016.

An Alternative Starting Pitching Solution

Did you know that Matt Wieters' career wRC+ is 98? It surprised me, because when I think of a solid offensive catcher Wieters comes to mind. He reached double digit doubles/home runs for four straight seasons. 2011 and 2012 were especially great, but going by wRC+ they were actually the only seasons that he was an above-average batter.

A wRC+ around 100 is pretty, pretty good for a catcher, but in baseball most backstops fall into one of two categories: bat-first or glove-first. (Excepting Buster Posey, Russell Martin, Salvador Perez and maybe Francisco Cervelli.) If your bat is average or below average as a catcher, it's likely that you're on the roster for your arm and/or your pitch framing abilities. In rare cases, such as Josh Thole, you're on the roster for your ability to catch a certain pitch. Washington's Wilson Ramos is a bat-first catcher. Boston's Christian Vazquez is a glove-first catcher.

Matt Wieters, at this stage of his career, is neither. And that doesn't mean he's useless trash; many teams have worse situations than a ~100 wRC+ catcher with deteriorating defensive skills on their hands. But the other day I was listening to Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller talk about The Extra 2% Rays on their excellent daily podcast, Effectively Wild, and it got me thinking about the Oriole's catching situation. Lindbergh and Miller were discussing the market inefficiencies and radical strategies the impoverished Rays used to realize that extra 2%, and one strategy they brought up was punting offense for elite defense at the catcher position. Just look at some of the names that Tampa Bay has employed to catch over the last few years: Rene Rivera, Jose Molina, Jose Lobaton, Ryan Hanigan, Hank Conger, Kelly Shoppach. Those guys swing twigs at the plate but each of them rank near the top in advanced catching metrics.

Ever since the hype train arrived in 2009, Wieters has started behind the plate whenever he's been healthy. It hasn't even been a question really. From 2011-2013, he led all catchers in number of pitches received. He had tons of potential, a plus arm, and graded as an OK pitch framer. He's still playable now, but with the ridiculous firepower of the 2016 O's lineup, would Baltimore be better off taking a page from the Rays' book and giving more at-bats to a catcher who might be an offensive black hole but will make up for it with caught base stealers and extra called strikes?

I presented that as a hypothetical, but the O's already have just the guy for this experiment, and his name is Caleb Joseph. After suffering a horrific injury in May, Joseph was recalled on June 30 and slid back into his back-up role behind Wieters. It would no doubt be an offensive downgrade, but Joseph doesn't even need to be average at the plate to be a net improvement over Wieters.

His .409 OPS over 75 at-bats this season has been a huge disappointment after a promising 2015 campaign in which he smacked 16 doubles and 11 homers in just 100 games. Most of his offensive struggles this year are due to a .214 BABIP that is due for a rebound, and a sudden change in his batted ball profile.

Goodbye fly balls, hello ground balls. Caleb Joseph is still a fly ball hitter, and his elevated 11.1 IFFB% indicates that he's trying hard to get under the ball but not squaring it up right. ZIPS projects him to post a .640 OPS going forward, compared to Wieters' projected .734 OPS. If, for the purpose of this experiment, we assume he gets regular playing time, Joseph it's not unreasonable to think Joseph could finish closer to his .693 OPS from last season.

Now, here's the stuff that needs to convince you, Buck Showalter, and Dan Duquette that Joseph can more than close that offensive gap with his defense.

The Pitch Framing

It's a relatively new field of research, but Matthew Carruth provides a sortable table of pitch framing metrics at his excellent site StatCorner. At the basis of all framing metrics lie two stats that are super intuitive: zBall% and oStr%.

• zBall% is the percentage of pitches caught within the strike zone that are called balls. The lower the zBall% the better - you're getting the strikes you should get. The average zBall% in 2012 was 14.5%.

• oStr% is the percentage of pitches caught outside the strike zone that are called strikes. The higher the oStr% the better - you're getting the strikes you shouldn't get. The average oStr% in 2012 was 7.2%.

Carruth uses these two stats to create an metric called +Calls, which is the number of extra called strikes a catcher is responsible for cumulatively. There's also PerGame, which is like +Calls but on a per game basis. If it sounds simple, that's because it is. The complex part that leads to some error is the fact that the strike zone is tough to define rigorously for the purposes of statistical analysis as it changes game to game, even hitter to hitter.

There has not been too much research into the stabilization point of catcher framing metrics, but Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs, who has written a bunch about the topic, estimates it takes around 1,000 - 2,000 receptions to get a good idea of the talent.

Here is how Joseph stacks up against Wieters over their careers:

Over the past three years, Joseph has gotten 168 extra strikes called for his pitchers. Wieters has "lost" 128 strike calls for his pitchers. This graph makes it look like Joseph's skills are deteriorating, but if we look at the per game stats, a clearer picture emerges.

Among catchers with at least 1,000 receptions this season, Joseph's 1.41 PerGame mark ranks sixth in baseball. His 11.4 zBall% is particularly impressive, trailing only Yasmani Grandal, Kevin Plawecki, and Buster Posey. His 9.0 oStr% is also in the top ten. 

Here is Joseph getting a called strike for Kevin Gausman on a borderline breaking ball around the outside edge:

Wieters, meanwhile, has been bad to awful. Most troubling is his oStr%, which ranked dead last among catchers with at least 4,000 receptions in 2015 and has been below average since 2012. 

I can't claim to have done enough research to be able to quantify the impact that +2.51 extra called strikes per game makes, but given the seemingly unsolvable struggles of the starting rotation, the Orioles should be open to trying out any solution. Especially one that doesn't require making a trade in an extreme sellers market. 

The Arm

Wieters never boasted elite arm strength, but his CS% was among the league leaders from 2011 to 2013 and I think the perception of his arm strength today has been skewed by that stretch. His arm started to decline in 2013, and he hasn't been the same since undergoing Tommy John in 2014.

Then there's Joseph, who led the AL with a 40.4 CS% in 2014, and his 33.6 CS% from 2014-2015 ranks fifth in baseball. Joseph's track record isn't very long, but he's actually the same age as Wieters. He took six years to get the majors and if you fold in his minor league track record, there's no reason to think the arm isn't legit.