DJ Stewart is Hyun Soo Kim

After the 2015 season, Hyun Soo Kim let it be known that he was interested in applying his skills to the Major League game.  Many in Korea predicted automatic success.  Kim was known as one of the best pure hitters that Korea had ever produced.  Athletic though with a bit of a bad body, he could have been called the KBO version of Tony Gwynn.  Combine that with the 2015 success of Jung Ho Kang, widely considered a lesser talent, and there was quite a bit of anticipation.

The scouting outlook that emerged from folks focused on the KBO was a bit rosy.  His speed was noted at average, but in Spring Training and later measured by Sprint Speed in the Majors that kind of fell apart.  Kim was the second slowest left fielder in baseball, just ahead of Melky Cabrera.  He could make decent routes.  He knew his limitations, but that awareness can only blunt the lack of range so much.  The changes in his swing to showcase more of his power in the KBO had to revert and go back to how he originally found success.  That took months to figure out.  All in all, it was a mixed bag.  Kim had to rely on his contact skills with nothing else to keep him afloat.  It worked mid-year 2016, but really at no other time.  He now finds himself back in the KBO and likely to dominate there.

Watching D.J. Stewart in 2016 and 2017, he actually looked a bit like Hyun Soo Kim to me.  Athletic, but bad bodied.  Moderate raw power than can translate into games with the right mechanics and approach.  Below average overall fielding.  The two differences that came forward though was that Stewart had a bit more raw power and he is far more able to apply himself on the basepaths.  Stewart understood and felt comfortable in how fast the game was played while Kim had difficulties (at a higher level).

To compare them, I brushed off my KANG model to project what D.J. Stewart would do (using long-term PECOTA projections) against what Hyun Soo Kim actually did at the same age:

		AVG	OBP	SLG
Kim	2012	.291	.358	.382
	2013	.302	.382	.470
	2014	.322	.396	.488
	2015	.326	.438	.541
Stewart	2018	.318	.450	.597
	2019	.326	.463	.618
	2020	.314	.450	.600
	2021	.327	.464	.624

PECOTA through KANG sees particularly more power coming from Stewart.  Stewart also appears to be able to draws more walks as well, but it should be noted that Kim made a point to adapt his game his final year, so you could potentially imagine Kim's power and discipline being underutilized in previous seasons.  Still, Stewart shows more walks and power.

I then wondered how it would look like with Stewart's projections before his 2017 renaissance.

		AVG	OBP	SLG
Kim	2012	.291	.358	.382
	2013	.302	.382	.470
	2014	.322	.396	.488
	2015	.326	.438	.541
Stewart -1	2018	.267	.380	.520
	2019	.263	.378	.521
	2020	.260	.376	.516
	2021	.260	.372	.514

They still do not quite match up.  Stewart still shows more power and similar discipline.  However, his hitting ability plummets.  If you squint though, you see something.

The hope for Stewart is that his hit tool appears to be more well-rounded than Kim's.  Yes, the skill set is marginal, but broader.  Also working for Stewart, by likely coming to the Majors at a younger age, his defense should be more capable.  This will make him less of a minus value overall to the club and enable him to have more opportunities to let his ability shine through.  Kim was not afforded plentiful chances when his offensive play would go into funks because of his defensive limitations.

For The Orioles, Has Corner Outfield Been A Wasteland?

The most-viewed article in the history of Camden Depot is simply titled, "How to Solve the Orioles' Corner Outfield Problem." It was a May 2015 post by Matt Perez that discussed the lack of outfield options in the O's farm system, and Matt suggested trading for Shane Victorino. Somehow, whether it's the SEO-friendly headline, some error in pageview counting, or a combination of things, that post has been viewed more than four times as much as the next-closest post on this site.

The Orioles never traded for Victorino and 2015 ended up being his final season in the major leagues, but they are still dealing with corner outfield issues. After the 2014 season, the Orioles decided to move on from Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis. I was fine with both decisions, though obviously the move not to bring back Cruz looks worse now. Somehow, Cruz has been even better than his rebound season in Baltimore, and his four-year, $57 million deal with the Mariners looks like a bargain. Maybe you wanted him back; maybe you didn't. His career turnaround his still been stunning, and no other team was willing to top that Seattle offer.

The same can't be said for Markakis's time with the Braves. He has maintained solid on-base numbers the last few years, but he still has very little power. Markakis has posted a wRC+ of 106, 98, and 95 in the last three seasons, respectively, and his fWAR has fallen each year as well, from 1.5 to 1.1 to 0.9. Considering his four-year, $44 million contract, Markakis may have helped the O's marginally, but that's it.

We don't need to rehash everything the O's have done to try and get production out of the corner outfield spots. From 2015-2017, O's right fielders have accumulated 5.5 fWAR (17th in MLB). In left field, things have been much worse: -1.8 fWAR (29th).

If you're curious, here are all the ranks for the Orioles in that span:

C: 7.7 fWAR (8th)
1B: 8.4 (7th)
2B: 6.5 (17th)
SS: 4.8 (21st)
3B: 14.4 (7th)
LF: -1.8 (29th)
CF: 5.7 (23rd)
RF: 5.5 (t-17th)
DH: 0.2 (t-13th)
SP: 40.5 (27th)
RP: 22.6 (5th)

A couple of things jump out. First, it's not surprising at all to see the starting pitching rank so poorly. Second, the center field production seems low. Adam Jones has posted a combined fWAR of 7.0 in those seasons as he's received far and away the bulk of playing time. In that period, Jones has 1,875 plate appearances when playing center field; the next closest player is Joey Rickard, with 67.

Of the 10 other center fielders who have seen time the last few years, only two have positive fWARs: Nolan Reimold (0.4) and Joey Rickard (0.1). The O's have really needed it, but they have never really had a competent backup for Jones in center field. That's one reason why the brief playing time given to Junior Lake (-0.2), Austin Hays (-0.4), David Lough (-0.5), and Gerardo Parra (-0.6) is weighing that number down a bit.

Back to the corner outfield discussion. In right field, the main contributor has been Mark Trumbo - or, to be clear, Trumbo in 2016. That year, he was a revelation (offensively). In 2017, he quickly came back to earth. Trumbo's outfield defense will always be a concern, but he has a 135 wRC+ when playing right field for the O's. When slotting in at DH, it drops to 81.

While the O's have made things respectable in right field, the same can't be said for left field. The last three years, they've used 21 different players out there. The best fWAR of the group goes to Trey Mancini, at 0.4. Thirteen of the 21 have posted a negative fWAR. Three others posted an fWAR of 0.

Maybe that's a little confusing, because Hyun Soo Kim posted a 120 wRC+ overall in 2016 and Mancini put up a 117 wRC+ overall in 2017. But when playing left field, Kim's wRC+ was 100 and Mancini's was 101. Kim's infrequent playing time and poor hitting in 2017 dropped his wRC+ significantly, while Mancini has a 157 wRC+ at first base (157 PAs) and a 148 wRC+ at DH (87 PAs). Most of Mancini's best work has come when he isn't playing in the outfield. Plus, while each looked OK at times, neither would be confused for a good defensive outfielder. Mancini seems to be an average defender, at best, while Kim was less so. Still, that Mancini is recognized as average (or close to it) shows improvement on his part.

During the season, I didn't notice that Mancini's best offensive production came at first base and DH. Because it's a small sample of plate appearances, maybe it means nothing. But since Chris Davis is locked in at first base and Trumbo is slated to get the bulk of the at-bats at DH, Mancini is scheduled to be the team's opening day starter in left field. The hope is that Mancini's overall offensive production carries over, and that he'll hit no matter where he plays without doing much harm with his glove. He's really only an outfielder due to the O's roster construction, and it would be more suitable to have him split time at first base and DH while the O's put a better outfielder in left. But unless Trumbo is traded, that's not an option.

With Austin Hays waiting in the wings, there's certainly promise in the O's system for help in right field. But the O's could clearly use more (especially defensively) given that there's no guarantee Hays is ready for a full-time role now. Hays has upside but is unproven, Trumbo will surely still see time in right field, and then behind them there's Jaycob Brugman, Joey Rickard, and Anthony Santander (who needs to spend 44 days on the active roster to fulfill his Rule 5 requirement). There's also Cedric Mullins, who could find himself in Baltimore before the season ends.

The O's current (though maybe misguided) plan is to compete in 2018, and if so, they must do better than relying on Brugman and Rickard. They maybe shouldn't even be relying on Mancini as a full-time outfielder. Brugman and Rickard are fine depth pieces, but more experienced players like Carlos Gomez, Jon Jay, Carlos Gonzalez, Jarrod Dyson, Cameron Maybin, and Melky Cabrera are still out there. Curtis Granderson would have made sense as a low-risk addition, but he just signed with the Blue Jays for $5 million. I'd prefer Dyson or Jay, but almost any of them would be preferable to relying on Rickard again. (Sorry, Rickard fans.)

What Is Up With Buck Showalter's Usage Of Hyun Soo Kim?

Up to this point, Hyun Soo Kim has had a very strange season-plus with the Orioles. To summarize, the Orioles wanted him! They signed him last year, after all, for two years and $7 million. Then, Kim performed poorly during spring training and Buck Showalter et al. seemed to sour on him. The Orioles reportedly "talked internally about potentially trying to" get out of his contract, and when that didn't happen, they tried to convince him to accept an assignment to Triple-A Norfolk.

That didn't happen, either, so Kim made the opening day roster, was booed by fans, and sat the bench. He barely played in April and early May, but started to play in late May as he kept producing. The Orioles didn't have better options, and he forced their hand. An average defender at best, his skills are with the bat, and he posted an impressive 119 wRC+ with an on-base percentage of .382 that was the best on the team. I've written a couple other posts about Kim detailing his accomplishments. Jon also wrote a post last October that examined Kim's KBO splits and posited that he should get more of a chance in a full-time role.

Let's just get right to it: Why are the Orioles not looking to play Kim more? They do not have very many on-base weapons, and they need to get better in that department. Last year, the Orioles ranked ninth in the American League with a .317 OBP. Against right-handed pitching, who Kim almost exclusively played against, the O's were tied for sixth (322). Kim doesn't get all the credit for that -- it's well-worn territory that the Orioles were much better against right-handed pitching last season -- but his 129 wRC+ vs. right-handers was second on the team only to Mark Trumbo (146). So far this season, the O's are second worst in the AL in OBP; Kim has the 10th most plate appearances on the team.

Showalter views Kim as a platoon bat, period. That sounds fine, even if it disregards the possibility that he could still get on base at an effective enough clip against same-handed throwers. How low is the bar here? Craig Gentry is getting leadoff at-bats!

But, three things. First, Kim isn't in the lineup against every right-handed starter (he is not in the lineup tonight against Steven Wright, who's a knuckleballer, but he still throws that pitch with his right hand). Second, Showalter frequently removes Kim from games around the sixth or seventh inning for defensive purposes, especially when the Orioles have the lead. That occasionally robs Kim of a plate appearance per start. And third, despite working his way to the second spot of the lineup last year and excelling in that role, Kim has been slotted seventh in the batting order so far this year despite his on-base prowess.

Part of the issue why Kim doesn't play more is roster construction. The Orioles re-signed Trumbo, and he's almost always going to receive his at-bats at DH. That is pushing someone like Trey Mancini to be an inexperienced outfielder, and he's trying to learn on the job. It would also help Kim if Showalter trusted him more in the field, but that just doesn't seem to be an option at this point.

It's early in the season. Players get hurt, and things can change quickly. But it does seem clear that Showalter, or Duquette, or some front office members didn't really want Kim around in the first place and won't give him a chance in an expanded role.

What exactly is going on? If the Orioles were planning to use him this way, why didn't they try harder to trade him during the offseason to at least get something in return? Kim is not a star, but he's useful, and this seems like a poor use of resources.

The Orioles Already Have A Capable Leadoff Option (Or Platoon)

In 2016, Orioles leadoff hitters had a combined wRC+ of 94. That was fourth worst in the American League. O's hitters in the second lineup slot, meanwhile, had a wRC+ of 121. That was good enough for third best.

The majority of leadoff plate appearances went to Adam Jones (488) and Joey Rickard (183). Jones is not a leadoff hitter, but did a competent job there last season (108 wRC+) while not reaching base at a high clip (.320 OBP). Most of the plate appearances in the No. 2 lineup spot went to Hyun Soo Kim (259), Manny Machado (164), and Jonathan Schoop (125). Machado and Kim were two of the O's best hitters last season, so it's not surprising then that the results from that spot in the order would be better than those of the leadoff spot.

It's well-worn territory by now where certain types of hitters should go in a team's lineup (and also that, by and large, the lineup order isn't that important - but it still matters somewhat and is easy/fun to discuss). There's plenty to read on efficient lineup ordering, and I summarized the Orioles' situation last season while arguing that Machado should bat second, not third. Machado should certainly bat second the majority of the time in 2017, while Jones should be placed lower in the order.

The first part of who should bat leadoff, then, is at least clear. Kim should bat first against right-handed pitching. In his first major league season, Kim was nearly 30% better than league average against opposite-handed throwers. Of all batters with at least 300 plate appearances, his .382 on-base percentage was 18th best in the majors. Against right-handers only, his .393 OBP was tied for ninth best overall (minimum 250 plate appearances).

For the Orioles, it's been a while since they had someone with Kim's on-base skills. In the Expansion Era, the longest the Orioles had gone from 1961 to 2008 without a hitter with an on-base percentage of at least .380 was three years. The Orioles went eight years, however, between Markakis's .406 OBP in 2008 and Kim's .382 OBP last season. The Orioles need to do whatever it takes to utilize Kim's skills at reaching base while they have him.

There's a decent argument that Kim should play every game and bat first, despite his struggles in limited duty against left-handed pitchers. I'd have no issue with that. Another option, though, would be to deploy a leadoff platoon: Kim vs. right-handers and Rickard vs. left-handers. I'm far from the only person to believe that platoon would make sense, even if you don't think that Kim (129 wRC+ in 323 PA) and Rickard (131 wRC+ in 90 PA) will be able to replicate their strong showing against opposite-handed throwers going forward.

But, so what? What are the alternatives? It's not Jones and his career 107 wRC+. Seth Smith is similar to Kim as a more proven left-handed platoon bat, so he might work. Kim on-base skills seem superior, however, so Smith could be a nice fit in the middle of the lineup, since Buck Showalter relishes alternating right- and left-handed batters (or at least trying to).

There's no option that sounds more enticing than either batting Kim leadoff full-time (less likely) or using the Kim/Rickard platoon (more likely). Showalter already learned his lesson last season when he benched Kim for most of April. It's time to give him a shot from day one in 2017 and see what he can do.

Stats via FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, and the Play Index

Cup of jO's: Is Hyun Soo Kim Really A Platoon Hitter?

This past season there was a wealth of intrigue regarding the true talent level of Hyun Soo Kim and why he had been used in the way that Buck used him.  From the Depot's perspective, it was a season marked by bemusement.  Kim's Spring looked awful, but really what was the alternative? Some tried to get comfortable with the idea of Xavier Avery, but we knew who he was and he proceeded to show who he was in Norfolk.  Kim slowly established himself over the course of the first two months, but Joey Baseball Rickard somehow was favored for his baseballness even though Kim was quietly outperforming him.  That emerged into a forced platoon relationship between those two players, which worked as Rickard was becoming more entrenched as having issues with right handed pitching.  What was not established is why exactly would anyone think Hyun Soo Kim actually needs a platoon partner.

Hyun Soo Kim's 2016 Handed Splits

Split	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
vs RHP	323	.321	.393	.446	.839
vs LHP	22	.000	.227	.000	.227

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/20/2016.

Kim's splits in the majors look terrible.  He was hitless in 22 plate appearances with four walks.  That said, what are 22 PA?  Why limit him to those appearances to begin with.  Certainly, it has nothing to do with Spring Training because then he could hit no one.  Well, what about his splits in Korea?

Hyun Soo Kim's 2014/2015 KBO Splits

Metric	2014-L	2014-R	2015-L	2015-R
PA	182	345	190	425
BB-K	22-17	31-28	27-16	72-44
AVG	.374	.296	.331	.327
OBP	.456	.365	.421	.449
SLG	.497	.485	.510	.564

That actually looks pretty even.  Kim sacrifices power a little bit to increase contact when facing southpaws, but it all looks exceptional.  Well, what does the new KANG model think?

Against left handed pitching in the KBO, the KANG model thinks Kim should slash 278/333/408.
Against right handed pitching in the KBO, the KANG model thinks Kim should slash 276/342/468.

His season against right handed pitching in the Majors in general was well predicted by KANG, but not amongst the components.  Kim's hit tool wound up being louder and his power tool was quieter.  If that held true for hitting against left handers, then we would expect him to be more of singles hitter without the gap power he showed with righthanders.  That would probably make him a very unusual hitter if he was actually successful against lefties.  He would be a not-too-fast singles slapping corner outfielder who would notch a decent walk rate, which looks like late stage Markakis.

In the end, if you have a hitter like Joey Rickard who can hit left handers well and a full time right fielder, then it makes sense to platoon with Kim.  However, moving forward, the Orioles should consider that Kim can potentially be a full time player and should experience a greater share of southpaws.  The proof will be in the pudding and the Orioles are still at the grocery store making assumptions from the box.

(Thanks to Sung Min Kim of Today's Knuckleball for providing me with Kim's splits data in the KBO.)

Ranking O's Players Most Likely To Be Traded Away With A Competitive Balance Pick

For some reason, the Orioles have traded their competitive balance draft pick the last two years in order to dump a little bit of salary. The first instance came in 2015, when the O's shipped Ryan Webb and the $2.75 million left on his deal along with the No. 74 overall pick to the Dodgers in exchange for two minor leaguers. The Dodgers then released Webb, because they wanted the draft pick.

Then, this past season, the O's traded Brian Matusz and the about $3 million left on his contract, plus the No. 76 pick in the draft, to the Braves for two minor leaguers. The Braves designated Matusz for assignment quickly. Again, the trade for the Dodgers and Braves was all about paying for a draft pick, and the O's were happy to oblige.

There's no guarantee the O's will do the same thing this year, but it's a strategy Dan Duquette has used to shed a little payroll early in the year. It seems bizarre -- you'd figure it would make more sense to non-tender a player or two to make up that salary instead of sending away a top-75ish draft pick -- but the O's seem to think this is some kind of market inefficiency (along with targeting unwanted qualifying offer players late in the offseason).

So who are some possibilities to be attached to another competitive balance pick and sold away to the highest bidder? (It's worth noting MLB and the MLBPA have postponed the Competitive Balance Lottery until January, and that the format could be altered.) Let's explore the options quickly.

5. Ubaldo Jimenez/Yovani Gallardo/Wade Miley

Just kidding. They all make too much money (Ubaldo: $13.5 million; Gallardo: $11 million; Miley: $8.75 million). Let's look elsewhere.

4. Hyun Soo Kim ($4.2 million)

How good does that two-year, $7 million deal for Kim look now? You wouldn't think the Orioles would trade him away in this type of deal because Kim showed he can successfully hit major league pitching. Then again, Kim's playing time was sporadic at the beginning of the season, and it sure didn't seem like Buck Showalter wanted him on the team for a portion of the year.

I don't think the O's will trade Kim -- and they shouldn't -- but it's at least possible they try to attach him to the competitive balance pick in an effort to garner a somewhat better return of minor leaguers than the past two trades.

3. T.J. McFarland (MLBTR projection: $0.7 million)

McFarland might have run out of chances to stick with the Orioles. He's out of options, and he might also be out of a role. McFarland has always been more of a swingman type than a lefty specialist, but the O's might not need either one. Donnie Hart is the second left-handed pitcher in the bullpen to go along with Zach Britton. And for now, they have six starters to choose from, plus long relievers/spot starters Vance Worley, Tyler Wilson, Mike Wright, Parker Bridwell, and others.

McFarland is a clear non-tender candidate, and he doesn't make enough money anyway to be included as the only player sold in a potential comp. pick deal. However, he could be included with someone like...

2. Ryan Flaherty (MLBTR projection: $1.7 million)

Say what you will about Flaherty (I have), but it's clear what he brings to the table. He can play multiple positions competently, including middle and corner infield spots. But he's also not a very good hitter, and it's possible the Orioles seek someone else to fill this role for less money. He could be someone the O's keep at the beginning of the season and then dump to shed some salary. Or, you know, he could just be non-tendered. You could say the same thing for the next guy on this list.

1. Vance Worley (MLBTR projection: $3.3 million)

The Orioles' two competitive balance pick trades involved pitchers, and the O's could find themselves with six starters and no defined role for Worley. So why wouldn't the O's just non-tender him? Great question! Why didn't they non-tender Matusz last year? Why did they go out of their way to dump Webb and his reasonable salary the year before that? The Orioles clearly do some smart things, but they also do some really weird things. This could just be another one of those, and Worley's salary seems just about the right amount to dump on another team.

By the way, this whole thing is crazy. Shouldn't the Orioles be doing more to actually keep extra draft picks? At least with Webb, the O's had already signed him to a guaranteed deal. The O's didn't have to keep Matusz around. The same goes for Worley, Flaherty, and McFarland.

Who Were The Five Biggest Surprises For The Orioles In 2016?

For the most part, the Orioles did what you expected this past season. The lineup hit a ton of home runs. The starting rotation wasn't good, but it did enough to enable the Orioles to make the playoffs. And the bullpen was excellent. But every season has its share of surprises, and these were the five biggest ones for the 2016 season.

Mark Trumbo

The Orioles didn't bring Trumbo aboard to steal a bunch of bases or transform into a useful defensive outfielder. He was added because of his ability to hit the ball out of the ballpark. And he did that -- 47 times, to be exact. That was four more times than the next closest player (Nelson Cruz, of course). Trumbo continued the run of O's players leading the majors in home runs. The last time that didn't happen was in 2012, when Miguel Cabrera finished with 44 taters.

The Orioles essentially picked Trumbo up in a salary dump, and he rewarded them by matching his best offensive season in 2012 (123 wRC+ this year, and a 124 wRC+ in 2012). Not bad. He also excelled primarily versus right-handed pitching, which was particularly odd, but definitely welcome.

Hyun Soo Kim

We've been over this, but a quick recap: Buck Showalter didn't want Kim on the major league roster to start the year. The Orioles explored getting rid of him before the season even started.  He was booed on opening day. Kim barely played in March and April. But whenever Kim played, he hit, forcing his way onto the lineup card. His .382 on-base percentage was the best among O's regulars by nearly 40 points. His 119 wRC+ was second best on the team behind Manny Machado and Trumbo.

His wins above replacement numbers (0.9 on FanGraphs and 0.6 on Baseball-Reference) don't look great, mostly held down by his ugly advanced defensive metrics in left field. I wouldn't try to tell you that Kim is a good outfielder, but I don't think he's 13 runs below average (according to Defensive Runs Saved data). Even still, Kim is under contract for one more year at around $4 million, and that deal is easily one of the best Dan Duquette has ever made.

Brad Brach

Did you see Brach's season coming? I didn't. There were signs that Brach was going to be good; his 2015 was certainly more than many fans anticipated. And yet, he took another step forward this season. After posting a 2.72 ERA and 3.47 FIP in 2015, Brach improved with a 2.05 ERA and 2.92 FIP this year. He saw a slight uptick in strikeouts while also cutting his walks by about 1.5 per nine innings.

Did Brach wear down in the second half? Maybe. A .211 BABIP in the first half of the season, followed by a .346, might do a better job of explaining some of his second-half struggles, especially since his strikeout and walk numbers were about the same. Still, Brach stepped up in a major way while Darren O'Day missed a chunk of the year battling injuries, and he even made the all-star team. It's hard to ask for much more than that from someone who was acquired for then-minor leaguer Devin Jones.

Dylan Bundy

Any rational O's fan only wanted to see one thing from Bundy in 2016: him escape the season without injury. But not only did Bundy do that, but he started 14 games in the second half and finished the year with almost 110 innings pitched. Before the year, Showalter said the O's wanted to get between 60-75 innings out of Bundy. Mission accomplished, and then some.

As a starter, Bundy posted a 4.52 ERA and sometimes struggled to get through the fifth inning. Nothing about that is surprising, though, and those are actually encouraging numbers for someone many weren't sure would ever throw a meaningful pitch in the majors again. You can't be too sure how long Bundy is ever going to stay healthy, but for now he's fine, and it's at least moderately exciting that he's exploring adding the cutter back to his pitch arsenal.

Caleb Joseph

There are a few other players you could easily include here, but I went with Joseph, who was maybe the O's worst player even when factoring in his limited playing time. Joseph finished the year with a fWAR of -0.9, edging out Joey Rickard (-0.7) for worst on the team. He didn't hit at all, ending the year with a wRC+ of 6 and without a driving in a run in 141 plate appearances.

I don't think anyone expected Joseph to be any kind of force with the bat, and anything around his earlier numbers from 2014 or 2015 would certainly have been accepted. Now, with the strong possibility of Matt Wieters leaving via free agency, Joseph, even with his framing skills and strong arm, is no longer the sure thing to receive a majority of the work behind the plate. The O's could bite the bullet and bring Wieters back on a multi-year deal, or they could look outside the organization for another catcher (Jon has been talking about the possible fit of Jason Castro for much of the season). But the sunny outlook for Joseph is mostly gone.

Honorable mentions: Joey Rickard, Donnie Hart, Trey Mancini, Michael Bourn

It's Been A Successful Season For Hyun Soo Kim

Hyun Soo Kim has had a very nice first season in the majors. There's never a bad time to sing his praises, but this morning just feels right considering his massive, game-shifting (and maybe even season-shifting) home run last night.

Korean call of Hyun Soo Kim's go-ahead HR in the 9th vs. Toronto is as good as you might imagine. Here you go #Orioles pic.twitter.com/gmnUyjzcVP

— Sung Min Kim (@sung_minkim) September 29, 2016

So let's look at some Kim tidbits from this season:

• Kim's 121 wRC+ is the second best on the Orioles behind Manny Machado (131).
• His .382 on-base percentage is far and away the best (Machado is second at .348).
• Kim has the lowest strikeout percentage (14.5%) among O's regulars and the third-highest walk percentage (10%).
• Among all hitters with at least 200 plate appearances, Kim has the 21st-best OBP. That's better than Dustin Pedroia, Bryce Harper, Corey Seager, Ryan Braun, Mookie Betts, Hunter Pence, Jose Bautista, etc. 
• If Kim finishes the year with a OBP of .380 or above, it’ll be the 62nd time that’s been done by an O’s player in the Expansion Era (since 1961, min. 300 PA) 
• Kim has a 131 wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching and a -19 wRC+ vs. left-handed pitching. Oddly enough, he’s walked the same amount of the time vs. lefties as he’s struck out but still doesn't have any hits (23 plate appearances).
• Tethered to the bench early in the season, Kim only batted 17 times in March/April.
• One early concern with Kim was that he wouldn't be able to get around on major league quality fastballs. Instead, he's had more trouble with breaking and offspeed pitches. 
• He can hit the ball anywhere, but his power is on the inner half (and down). All six of his home runs are to right field or right-center. 
• His solo shot on June 30th gave the O’s the MLB record for most home runs in that month (56).
• Kim is the best on the Orioles at making contact on pitches thrown outside the zone. He's selective, and the only player on the team who has swung less this season is J.J. Hardy.
• He dressed up like a Teletubby.

Surely, there's more. Feel free to chime in with any interesting Kim note or nugget.

From being booed by fans on opening day for not accepting a minor league assignment, to having to fight tooth and nail to earn more playing time, it's been a year full of redemption for Kim. He's handled all adversity about as well as you could imagine, and he's doing his best -- you know, when he's actually in the lineup -- to get the O's into the postseason.

Hyun Soo Kim Is The Orioles' Latest Hero

Annoying Orioles fans like me have been wondering for much of the season why Hyun Soo Kim doesn't receive more playing time. Yes, he doesn't have a hit against a left-handed pitcher yet, but it's not like the Orioles have a bunch of lefty mashers anyway.

It's still not clear why Kim hasn't played more, and it may never be explained fully. But Kim continues to excel in whatever role he's asked to fill, and that was never more evident than his enormous pinch-hit, two-run homer tonight in the ninth inning that allowed the Orioles to steal a game in Toronto.

Living that CLUTCH life. #LloveTheGame pic.twitter.com/IymLbLlClS

— MLB (@MLB) September 29, 2016

Many fans have come around on Kim. He's not super fast, doesn't have a great arm, and doesn't appear to be anything better than an average or below average outfielder (advanced defensive metrics, in particular, have been unkind to him in his limited time in the field). But Kim has been outstanding against right-handed pitching as a platoon bat, and he's exceeded the expectations of any reasonable fan and almost certainly Buck Showalter (you'd hope).

Kim might play a larger role in the next few games and in 2017. Or he might not. But in 2016, Kim very well may have saved the O's playoff hopes. You can't take that away from him.

Orioles Don't Have Many Options To Jump-Start Stagnant Offense

If you want to write off the Orioles, go ahead. They've lost three straight games at home to the Red Sox, and they're currently clinging to a one-game lead over the Tigers and Astros for the second wild card slot. The Mariners (two games) and Yankees (two-and-a-half games) aren't far behind. Really, they've been up and down for much of the season.

Some people dismissed the O's chances of contending before the season, when they failed to reel in Dexter Fowler and didn't do a whole lot to address their pitching staff. Many wrote off their chances of reaching the playoffs when Chris Tillman was placed on the disabled list in August and it was unclear if he'd pitch again this season. O's starters, while scary to watch at times, have mostly held up their end of the bargain since, or at least provided what could have reasonably been expected. Much of the credit goes to Kevin Gausman, the O's best starting pitcher, and Ubaldo Jimenez, who is on a current run of being adequate (no small feat).

Instead, the offense has been the club's main problem since the all-star break. And unfortunately, there doesn't appear to be much Buck Showalter can do about it with so little time left in the season.

The Orioles are built on power and don't have much speed or on-base abilities, so it's not like they can start deploying an efficient small-ball or contact-oriented attack overnight (even if you think it would help). In fact, the O's only have two players with on-base percentages over .350: Hyun Soo Kim (.381) and Manny Machado (.351). And Kim and J.J. Hardy are the only regulars who have struck out less than 15% of the time. The Orioles have some very good power hitters, but as I noted yesterday, the O's are only American League team with a collective OBP under .300 in the second half. A huge drop-off in batting average on balls in play has also contributed to a lack of runs.

Clearly the O's need more wins, in a hurry. And they must score more runs in their remaining 10 games. But how can they turn things around? I could only think of a couple minor solutions to get the O's out of their current funk. There's really no panacea, though, and if more hits don't start dropping in or clearing the fence, the O's are in serious trouble.

Juggle the batting order

Making major lineup changes is usually a desperate move, but perhaps that's required in this situation (even if lineup construction does not move the needle much in terms of run expectancy). The O's aren't getting on base. They've scored two runs or fewer in their past five games, and they haven't scored more than six runs in a game since September 10. Holding the Red Sox to five runs each in three straight games should at least keep the O's competitive enough, but that hasn't been the case. Getting held down by David Price is one thing. But the current version of Clay Buchholz? Yikes.

So how about this: Move Adam Jones out of the leadoff spot. He's been useful there overall this season (117 wRC+), but he's still miscast in that role because he does not get on base enough. The Orioles have a better option to use there: Kim. The following lineup is intriguing vs. right-handed pitching:

Kim, Machado, Alvarez, Jones, Davis, Trumbo, Schoop, Wieters, Hardy

Kim has been the Orioles' best OBP weapon, and there's certainly been nothing wrong with using him out of the No. 2 spot. But it'd give the lineup a different look, plus Machado should be batting second anyway.

I'd also bump up Alvarez to either third or fourth -- I tried to go with alternating right- and left-handed batters, as Showalter is wont to do. Not only does Alvarez mash right-handed pitching, but he's been the O's best hitter in the second half (in limited duty, to be fair). You can either have Jones in the cleanup spot or sixth, with Davis (who for a chunk of the season has been dealing with a sore left hand, which visibly affects his swing) sandwiched between them.

Things get trickier against left-handed pitching. Kim doesn't play against lefties and has not been effective in limited duty. He should probably still get more of a chance against them, but there are worse things than having an effective platoon bat. For a lineup with several powerful right-handed bats, many of them do not perform well against southpaws. That's one reason why the O's acquired Steve Pearce, and losing him for the rest of the season stings. Many O's are having terrible statistical seasons against lefties, and it's not like Joey Rickard is walking through that door (with a healthy thumb, at least). One possible option against lefties could be...

Give Trey Mancini a chance

Who wouldn't like to see a few more home runs from Trey Mancini? He can't possibly top the thrill of his first major league homer, but he could try. Mancini is probably limited to DH duties unless the O's want to give Davis a breather, but he could be an option in lineups against lefty starters. That means Mark Trumbo would have to be in right field more than the O's would like, but that might have to be a necessary risk to score some extra runs.

Who else on the O's bench would you really want to see more of? Michael Bourn is really the only option, mainly because he's usually decent against right-handed pitching (though not this year) and he's preferable defensively to the O's uninspired options. There's not much that's exciting about Nolan Reimold, Drew Stubbs, or Ryan Flaherty. Mancini should get a shot, and I wouldn't be surprised to see his name in the lineup against Price tonight.

Bunt more to beat the shift

This is typically something fans harp on, as if it's incredibly easy to do. Surprise: It's not! When it works, it looks fantastic and it's easy to wonder why more power hitters don't do it. And yet, when it doesn't work, it looks horrible and gives the opposition a free out.

There's no debating that the Orioles need more baserunners, and it's not the worst idea to do whatever it takes to get on base. But what the O's need even less of is to give away outs in opportunities to hit the ball a long way.

More sacrifice bunts and small ball

No thanks.

-----

That's really it. The Orioles were supposed to have one of the three or four best offenses in the AL, and right now they rank sixth in runs scored. And whether some people find this team's offensive attack aesthetically displeasing or believe contact-lacking lineups are always doomed to fail in the playoffs, the O's offense is supposed to be better than this.

Many of the batters who hit well in the first half are going to have to start producing again, or the O's could very well find themselves home during the postseason.

Where The Orioles Miss Joey Rickard

By now, it's well documented that this year's version of the Orioles has not been very good against left-handed pitching. Against right-handed pitching, the O's offense ranks third in the majors with a .340 wOBA. But against lefties, they drop all the way to 27th with a wOBA of .295.

The weird thing about that? The O's have a lot of right-handed power bats. There's Adam Jones (.319 career wOBA vs. LHP), Mark Trumbo (.339), Manny Machado (.334), Jonathan Schoop (.269), Steve Pearce (after the trade), and even the switch-hitting Matt Wieters (.344), who historically has performed better from the right side of the plate. Jones and Schoop have been better hitters throughout their careers against right-handed pitching, but besides Machado (who's been excellent), they've all been below average against lefties. Trumbo, Jones, and Wieters have been particularly awful against southpaws this year.

While much of the early season hype of Joey Rickard has dissipated -- both because he cooled off immensely and he's been on the shelf for a while with a thumb injury -- the Orioles have missed his offense against left-handed pitching. Rickard's .369 wOBA against lefties is second best on the O's behind Machado (.381).

Certainly Pearce has shown throughout his career that he can handle lefties, but Nolan Reimold, who's received some extra work with Rickard on the disabled list, has not. Reimold has a .259 wOBA in 103 trips to the plate against lefties, though it's not like he's a lefty masher anyway (career .318 wOBA, 93 wRC+ vs. LHP). Hyun Soo Kim still has not received many plate appearances against lefties (23), but he hasn't done much with them either. He's walked and struck out four times each, plus he was hit by a pitch, but he has yet to record a base hit. That's a BABIP of zero, if you're scoring at home.

Even though it took Buck Showalter a long time before inserting Kim into the lineup regularly -- and Kim all but forced Showalter's hand by hitting in nearly every opportunity he received -- the Kim/Rickard combination had been extremely successful. Kim has a wRC+ of 136 against right-handed pitching, and Rickard has a 130 wRC+ against lefties. That's how you draw up a platoon.

It's unclear whether Kim and Rickard are really this good against opposite-handed throwers. That will play itself out over the rest of this year and in 2017, which is the last season of Kim's two-year deal. Regardless, while Rickard is out (possibly for the rest of the season) and the O's search for any kind of short-term outfield help in Drew Stubbs and Michael Bourn, don't buy into the hype that the Orioles miss Rickard's defense more than anything. He's better defensively than Trumbo or Kim, which isn't exactly a high bar, but being fast doesn't make you a plus outfielder.

Hyun Soo Kim Has Been A Revelation

Depending on what you believe, Hyun Soo Kim's first year with the Orioles was close to not happening. Before he ever played an inning of regular season baseball, the Orioles were exploring how to get out of his contract (signed just a few months prior). As Roch Kubatko of MASN wrote in late March, "I checked again last night and the Orioles definitely are open to moving Kim, whose performance hasn’t met expectations." That would be his highly scrutinized spring training performance.

Kim did not hit well in spring training, and that, combined with other concerns (defense? baserunning? money?), put Kim's Orioles' career in jeopardy before it ever really started. The Orioles wanted Kim to start the year in Triple-A. He justifiably declined. Some fans foolishly called Kim selfish, and some even made the puzzling decision to boo him on opening day. Adam Jones rightfully admonished fans afterward.

That brings us to Kim's actual production during his debut season. Here's a summary: He just keeps hitting. Kim didn't make his debut until the O's sixth game, when he collected two singles in three trips to the plate. He appeared in the lineup sporadically through mid-May. Because he kept hitting and getting on base, he finally started seeing his name in the lineup regularly starting on May 25.

Overall, it's hard not to be impressed by the numbers. In 137 plate appearances, Kim has posted a 148 wRC+. That's second-best on the Orioles, behind Manny Machado (159 wRC+). Kim is almost certainly not this good -- a BABIP of .390 is propping up his numbers to some extent -- but he has been excellent so far and has given the Orioles way, way more than they thought they were getting in March. (Seriously, go through Kubatko's post above comparing Kim and Rickard. It's amusing.)

At the time Kim's signing was announced, fans were hoping that Kim could provide an on-base threat. He's done exactly that, with a .438 on-base percentage. That's the highest among all major league hitters with at least 100 plate appearances (David Ortiz is second at .433). Kim has walked exactly as many times as he's struck out (16), and his walk rate of 11.7% trails only Chris Davis (13.6%).

One of the amusing parts of the Orioles trying to get out of Kim's contract before the season is that not only did it seem like a reasonable deal at the time, but it only looks better now. The Orioles signed Kim for two years and $7 million, and based on his production (0.9 fWAR, 0.7 bWAR), he's essentially been worth his contract so far with a season and a half to go. Even if Kim performs at replacement level for the rest of his deal, his contract has already been worth it.

You probably couldn't have predicted it based on how the season started -- Kim buried on the bench; Adam Jones battling an injury; Joey Rickard receiving an extended stretch of at-bats as the team's everyday leadoff hitter -- but the Orioles have stumbled into an effective left field platoon with Kim and Rickard. This is how the two have performed against opposite-handed throwers:

Kim vs. RHP: 152 wRC+
Rickard vs. LHP: 129 wRC+

That is very strong production, especially considering how terrible O's left fielders were just a season ago. Perhaps Kim should be playing even more and given a chance to show what he can do against lefties, but it's hard to argue with the results.

Kim has exceeded all expectations, even before taking into account the drama during and after spring training, combined with being chained to the bench for a while. Kim hasn't reached (and likely won't reach) the point where it's expected to see him bat about 50% better than the league average. But at least 10-20% is certainly within play, and if anyone would have guaranteed you that before the season, you would have been thrilled. The same goes for the Orioles, who are surely just as surprised.

All I know is that I'd be just fine with more moments like this:

Hyun Soo #Kim's 2-run homer #2 (Korean call) #Orioles pic.twitter.com/op33xWweBU

— Joseph Kim (@blackwings2011) June 29, 2016

How Well Did Hyun Soo Kim Handle Fastballs In Korea?

The growing concern around the Orioles spring training camp with Hyun Soo Kim was largely about his inability to hit MLB quality fastballs.  When he cheated and quickened his swing to catch up to mid 90s heat, he was particularly susceptible to breaking balls.  However, when he sat back and hit like he did in Korea, fastballs would simply eat him up.  It made me wonder how exactly did he fare in the KBO.  Is there anything that indicates that this is just a rough patch and that the professional hitter is still alive and well? Those 40 spring training at bats simply are not enough to show his soft skills.

Dan, over at MyKBO, pointed me toward this database.  My Korean is poor and my translation software is spirited, but I had to ask a friend what certain categories were.  For instance, what I thought was bottle flesh was actually Grounded into Double Play.  To say the least, it was a learning experience.  Anyway, from this database I was able to see how Kim performed against all of the pitchers he has faced over the past five seasons.  From there I was able to cross reference pitchers that appeared in both my Pitch F/X source and in this spreadsheet.  Of course, the velocities are not from the same time period.  In fact, most of the velocities are taken about one to four years before Kim ever faced them, so we can tentatively assume that the values probably overstate velocity.  Still, I think it gives us some idea.

The second issue was that there is not much crossover between my MLB Pitch F/X values and what one may find on the mound in a KBO game.  In fact, I was only able to come up with 139 plate appearances where Kim faced a pitcher for which I had fastball velocities at some point in his career.  I wound up doing a simple batch approach.  I would compare pitchers at the halfway point for average fastball velocity, which nicely coincided with 90 mph.  Mind you, pitchers in the Majors with a fastball velocity on average of 90 and below constitute about 15% of the pitching population.  In Korea, it appears that it may be closer to 80%.  An overwhelming majority of 90+ mph throwers in Korea are foreign players and many of them do not throw that hard either.

Keep in mind that these values do not establish true talent levels.  You need about 200 PA for that.  However, it is plausible to consider extreme differences as suggesting underlying concerns.

Kim	PA	2B	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG
>90 mph	70	1	0	.245	.400	.264
90 or less	69	3	8	.365	.406	.794

Perhaps, the most interesting thing that stands out is that Kim was teeing off on pitchers throwing less than 90 mph.  Kim averaged a home run in a little less than nine plate appearances against soft tossers.  Add a little heat and the only extra base hit he mustered was a double.  It appears, based on this small sample, that Kim had a different approach when facing harder fastball throwing pitchers, which was to work the count and be more defensive.  It appears to have resulted in more walks and a collapse in power.

Of course, all batters fare worse against higher velocity pitchers and it may be in an environment like Korea that one gets use to the range of velocity there.  In other words, perhaps elite bats are able to adjust and adapt to higher velocity environments when they encounter them.  With this in mind, I did the same thing for Jung Ho Kang.  With Kang, the same size was worse with 84 total plate appearances.

Kang	PA	2B	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG
>90 mph	30	0	2	.154	.233	.385
90 or less	54	3	7	.364	.426	.909

In comparing the two players, they both struggled mightily against higher velocity competition.  In this very small sample size, Kang gives some hope as he did flash the ability to take high velocity pitchers deep.  However, these numbers would have to improve for him to be a viable bat in MLB.  And, he did.  Some of his hitting last year was a tad on the fortunate side, but he did show a MLB quality bat while what we see above would find that to be highly questionable.

So what does it all mean?  If anything, start Hyun Soo Kim against Marco Estrada.  We should feel pretty confident there.  The rest?  The warning signs are there and it still seems possible Baltimore might try to see what Kim can do, begrudgingly.

Hyun Soo Kim And How We Got Here

Hyun Soo Kim appears to be reliving the same moment he experienced in 2006.  The surprise that past success does not guarantee that those on the next level will automatically hand you anything.  More than that, that showing oneself to be exceptional in years past means less than what you show in the past month.  When it happened before, he was a kid who had just completed high school.  Kim won the Lee Yeong-min Award, which is awarded to the best hitter in Korean high school baseball.  He submitted his name for the KBO draft and every team past him by in every round.  He wound up signing as an undrafted free agent with the Doosan Bears and was forced to reestablish himself by playing on the Bears minor league club.

In 2007, Kim became a regular, finishing as a runner-up for the Rookie of the Year.  In 2008, he finished as runner-up for the Most Valuable Player.  And, well, he never stopped being exceptional:

Year	Age	Tm	G	PA	2B	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
2007	19	Doosan	99	353	19	5	26	46	.273	.335	.398
2008	20	Doosan	126	557	34	9	80	40	.357	.454	.509
2009	21	Doosan	133	572	31	23	80	59	.357	.448	.589
2010	22	Doosan	132	565	29	24	78	64	.317	.414	.531
2011	23	Doosan	130	561	25	13	71	63	.301	.392	.444
2012	24	Doosan	122	491	17	7	46	50	.291	.358	.382
2013	25	Doosan	122	510	23	16	62	71	.302	.382	.470
2014	26	Doosan	125	528	26	17	53	45	.322	.396	.488
2015	27	Doosan	141	630	26	28	101	63	.326	.438	.541
All Levels (10 Seasons)			1131	4768	230	142	597	501	.318	.406	.488

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/29/2016.

When Kim decided after this past season to shift over to the States to play baseball, he was considered by many in Korea to be a sure-fire success.  A great amount of hesitation was eliminated by Jung-Ho Kang's success in Pittsburgh last year.  Kang certainly had more power and played a key position in the infield, but Kim is thought of as a professional hitter.  He just hits and hits and hits.  He works at bats.  He makes contact.  Kim has effectively been a right handed left fielder version of John Olerud in a baseball environment that would greatly appreciate what John Olerud did.  In case you forgot, Olerud accrued 58 bWAR over his career, which puts him just outside the threshold of Hall of Fame consideration.  Anyway, the point is that Kim was considered exceptional and his skills were considered transferable to the Majors.

I was not as confident as my connections in Korea were.  I have not watched a lot of Kim and never saw him in person.  All I had was data, imperfect data, and that throws a great deal of uncertainty into the mix.  Still, my data, which is based on Kang as well as a handful of recent MLB exports to Korea, was not incredibly impressed with Kim.  The model I created did two things well: (1) it assessed home runs well and (2) it assessed walks and strikeouts well.  It looked at Kim's home run performance from the past few years and thought he had a 10-12 HR bat, which is what the scouts thought as well.  It looked at his walk rate and thought it would be cut in half and that his strikeouts would rise by about 10%.  In all, it thought Kim had a fringe fourth outfielder bat. 

Again, the model only hit on home runs, walks, and strikeouts.  Beyond those three true outcomes, it became far more uncertain.  What the model could not do well is figure out contact rates and gap power.  That was where the professional hitter value would be found.  What Kim specifically did well, the model shrugged and threw out weak estimates.  In that gray area, he would need to excel to show good value.

If that was the only issue, the Orioles would likely be smoothing over the difficulty Kim has had this spring.  However, Kim's value is even more reliant on that gray area because of a couple more considerations.  First, Kim is not fleet-footed.  He is smart on the base paths, but does not have the speed to turn long singles into sliding doubles.  Kim is not a first to home kind of guy.  He is not slow by any means, but it is fair to say he is below average.  Second, what Kim lacks in range in the outfield, he doubles up with poor arm strength.  If you have watched him play left field this spring, then you know the modest downplay of how well Kim might fit into right field was still an absurdity.  I also find it doubtful that he can play a league average left field, but I have found no one to comment on that.

Anyway, from this you can see why Kim was awarded a two year, seven million dollar deal from the Orioles.  It was a paltry sum for such an accomplished player because there simply are so many questions regarding his ability to succeed in MLB.  At the time, there was some discussion about an team opt out of the contract.  If he did not perform well, it was noted that he would be sent back to Korea in a manner similar to the Orioles releasing Suk-min Yoon after the 2014 season (Yoon, who was hammered in Norfolk, enjoyed a rather dominant 2015 in the KBO).  However, no firm detail of a team buyout was reported at the time. 

When spring training arrived, so did Kim.  The first rumblings were not positive.  Orioles officials noted that Kim was a little heavy and it was suggested that he was not as prepared because KBO spring training are longer with more emphasis on conditioning players.  Drills commenced and curiously little was said about Kim's performance.  The scrimmages began and Kim began his descent into an 0-for-twenty something streak.  He hit some balls hard, but it was not as if he was spraying the corners and the gaps.  His hard hit balls were basically hit at infielders.  He worked deep into counts, four-plus pitches per plate appearance, but his swing was often defensive.  He often was coming in downward.

The second half of the spring training scrimmage season was more favorable to Kim.  The hits started scooting through and falling.  Over the course of another twenty plate appearances he was flirting with .400 baseball.  Glaringly, he was also flirting with a .400 slugging percentage.  As things came together, he still was not driving the ball with authority and was unable to stretch singles into doubles or find the other side of the fence.  It is troubling that even when things appeared to be going well that his one tool that needed to carry him was simply producing singles.  Additionally, he had earned only a single walk.  This was a growing concern.

Of course, what can one say about 40 plate appearances and spring training ones at that?  Previous research has found that spring training shifts a projection around 5%, which is not enough to really emerge from the noise.  That is complicated in that Kim's projection is built upon a rather scant amount of data relating KBO performances to MLB performances.  Even if it was MLB in-season data, it takes about fifty plate appearances to say anything meaningful about walk and strikeout rates.  It takes three times as long to say much about anything else.

This likely left the team in a tough spot.  The projections are connected to a great deal of uncertainty.  The little amount of data available shows a player who is struggling mightily to do anything of much value.  And the scouting is largely unimpressed.  If Kim was a player who had stomped AAA pitching and put up this kind of spring training performance, he simply would not be considered for a roster spot.  The truth is that right now uncertainty is what both is his savior and what damns him.  It is also what makes other players look more ideal.  A known fringe player or one that performs well in a handful of play often feels more comfortable than the guy who goes out and does poorly.

Joey Rickard was unforeseen.  I imagine the original plan was to kick him around in spring training to see if he could handle the fifth outfielder slot.  Instead, he just hits and hits and hits.  His value has not changed much.  He is a fringe outfielder, but you tend to go with the fringe player who is hot than the fringe players who are cold.  Rickard will start the season suiting up in left field until he remembers that he is Joey Rickard.

Nolan Reimold was planned.  He was going to support Kim in left field and provide insurance in case Kim needed a longer transition or just never made the needed adjustments.  He still is that comfortable sweater.  His defense can be squirrelly, but his bat can play in a pinch.  He is a solid fourth outfielder and has shown more competency at the plate than Kim has.

Pedro Alvarez was not planned.  Alvarez is really what has hurt Kim.  When the Orioles' plans for filling in right field with another left handed bat evaporated with Dexter Fowler returning to the Cubs, the team got the only meaningful left handed bat remaining.  Alvarez is a designated hitter and nothing more, which puts the right handed Mark Trumbo into the outfield.  It also creates a modest desire to have another MLB quality offensive left-handed bat on the bench, which the club does not seem to think Kim has established.

What we find now is that there is a discussion about Kim and the potential curiosity the Orioles have for the recently released and left-handed outfielder David Murphy.  Murphy used to be good.  He used to be a starter.  He is now a guy coming off a 0.0 bWAR season who gets spring training invites and contemplates retirement.  Murphy is not a great prize.  However, he is left-handed and he has experienced success in the not too distant past. 

And so we now find ourselves sorting through reported discussions between Kim's camp and the Orioles about releasing him.  The optimistic view is that this is just an errant news release that has echoed a bit.  The slightly less optimistic view is that the two sides are discussing a way to let Kim spend a month in the minors before making a full decision.  The least optimistic view is that the Orioles are following through with what they said was a possibility when Kim signed last winter: that he has not shown himself to be good enough in the opportunities that were available to him and that he will be heading back to the KBO to dominate some more.