Spring Training Roster Battle: Corner Outfielder

After a flurry of moves over the last few days, the Orioles have plenty of options for a handful of roster spots. Dan Duquette and Buck Showalter put a premium on having worthwhile fringe roster choices, and that should yet again be the case this season. The O's seem to value players with minor league options remaining more than most teams, and the Triple-A Norfolk shuttle figures to be in use as much as ever in 2017.

With that in mind, let's look ahead to the possible opening day roster. Not every player the Orioles want to keep has a minor league option left, so they'll have to make some tough decisions in key spots.

Here are the likely locks (with the assumption that Chris Tillman will start the season on the new, 10-day disabled list).

C: Welington Castillo
C: Caleb Joseph
1B: Chris Davis
2B: Jonathan Schoop
SS: J.J. Hardy
3B: Manny Machado
DH/OF/1B: Mark Trumbo
LF: Hyun Soo Kim
CF: Adam Jones
RF/LF: Seth Smith
UTIL: Ryan Flaherty
SP: Kevin Gausman
SP: Ubaldo Jimenez
SP: Dylan Bundy
SP: Wade Miley
RP: Zach Britton
RP: Brad Brach
RP: Mychal Givens
RP: Darren O'Day
RP: Donnie Hart

That's 20 locks. That leaves spots for at least two more outfielders, maybe a corner infielder/bench bat, and two more pitchers. It's worth noting that because of April off-days, the Orioles don't need their fifth starter, Tillman (if healthy), until later in the month.

Let's take a look at the first battleground, corner outfield, while a future post or two will look closer at the reliever and potential infielder battle.

Battle 1: Corner Outfield

Realistic options: Joey Rickard, Aneury Tavarez, Anthony Santander, Michael Bourn, Craig Gentry

Adam Jones asked for more defensive-minded outfield help a few weeks ago, and Duquette recently obliged by signing Craig Gentry and Michael Bourn to minor league deals. Last year, the Orioles broke camp with five outfielders (Rickard, Jones, Trumbo, Kim, and Nolan Reimold). The first four are back, but Reimold is gone. Pedro Alvarez, basically a DH-only player at this point in his career, is also not around. Because of his absence, Trumbo figures to get more work at DH this season.

Throwing a wrench into things are the two Rule 5 picks, Tavarez and Santander. Tavarez, along with Bourn and Gentry, seems to fit what the O's roster lacks: speed and improved corner outfield defense. Gentry is the more well-regarded defender of the group, something which both scouts and the advanced defensive metrics agree on. Bourn is no longer a good option in center field and doesn't have a great arm, but he does still have range suitable enough for the corners. Tavarez seems to fit that mold as well, though he lacks the major league track record of Bourn and Gentry.

At 22, Santander is the youngest of the group, and probably the one with the highest ceiling. John Sickels listed Santander as the No. 5 prospect in the O's system, while MLB Pipeline placed him 15th. Fifth does seem aggressive, but then again, the Orioles' farm system is far from highly rated. It's sad (though amusing) that a Rule 5 pick can immediately be considered a team's top five prospect.

Unlike the other outfield options, Santander is more known for his offensive talents. It's almost impossible to read something about him without a comparison to Victor Martinez. Still, he has a few things working against him sticking with the Orioles: he had offseason shoulder surgery, which he's working his way back from; he's never played above Single-A ball; and he has to stick with the major league club for at least 90 days to stay in the organization. With some disabled list and roster wizardry, it wouldn't be impossible for the Orioles to try and keep Santander around; the shoulder concerns could help in that regard. But that roster spot could also be used to keep around a late-game defensive outfield replacement, which figures to be used often to protect leads with Kim, Smith, and Trumbo on the roster. Maybe it all depends how Santander's shoulder progresses.

Orioles fans are more than familiar by now with Rickard, who they hope transforms into someone like Gentry: a right-handed platoon bat with strong defensive skills. Gentry has a career 97 wRC+ against opposite-handed throwers, while in limited duty last year, Rickard posted a 131 wRC+ against lefties. Rickard isn't that good against southpaws, but it does make you wonder how useful he'd be in that role, especially if his defense improves.

Rickard's defense was talked up a lot last year, but he struggled at times. While he made some flashy plays, he did not always read the ball well off the bat and missed some plays a quality defender would make. Some of that could easily be chalked up to being a rookie. Still, Rickard has minor league options remaining, meaning the O's can give any of the other outfielders a look, if they choose.

There's one more curveball here, and it's that Bourn has an opt-out date of March 25 if he's not on the major league roster. So if the Orioles want to keep him around, he'll need to make the club this spring.

Prediction: I think the Orioles will start the season with Rickard and Bourn on the opening day roster, while placing Santander on the 60-day disabled list. I think they'll send Tavarez back to Boston, and they'll release Gentry (while also trying to keep him in the organization).

Showalter covets the flexibility that Bourn provides, and I think it matters that he joined the team last year and is familiar with what his role will be. Showalter also loves Rickard and took the chance to mention a bunch of times in the second half of last season that they really could have used him (he was out with a thumb injury and didn't play after July 20). There's a case for starting the year with Bourn/Gentry on the roster, optioning Rickard, and giving Gentry a chance, but I would guess that won't happen. And I think the O's will opt to try and keep Santander over Tavarez, though it'll take some slick roster maneuvering throughout the year.

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More from Camden Depot:

- Yesterday, I joined Derek Martin on his Upon Further Review podcast to talk some Orioles baseball. Thanks to Derek for the invitation; it was a fun conversation. Check it out.

- Jon answered some questions for Cards Conclave's "Playing Pepper" series. You can see some of his thoughts on the O's offseason along with some predictions for the upcoming season.

Who Were The Five Biggest Surprises For The Orioles In 2016?

For the most part, the Orioles did what you expected this past season. The lineup hit a ton of home runs. The starting rotation wasn't good, but it did enough to enable the Orioles to make the playoffs. And the bullpen was excellent. But every season has its share of surprises, and these were the five biggest ones for the 2016 season.

Mark Trumbo

The Orioles didn't bring Trumbo aboard to steal a bunch of bases or transform into a useful defensive outfielder. He was added because of his ability to hit the ball out of the ballpark. And he did that -- 47 times, to be exact. That was four more times than the next closest player (Nelson Cruz, of course). Trumbo continued the run of O's players leading the majors in home runs. The last time that didn't happen was in 2012, when Miguel Cabrera finished with 44 taters.

The Orioles essentially picked Trumbo up in a salary dump, and he rewarded them by matching his best offensive season in 2012 (123 wRC+ this year, and a 124 wRC+ in 2012). Not bad. He also excelled primarily versus right-handed pitching, which was particularly odd, but definitely welcome.

Hyun Soo Kim

We've been over this, but a quick recap: Buck Showalter didn't want Kim on the major league roster to start the year. The Orioles explored getting rid of him before the season even started.  He was booed on opening day. Kim barely played in March and April. But whenever Kim played, he hit, forcing his way onto the lineup card. His .382 on-base percentage was the best among O's regulars by nearly 40 points. His 119 wRC+ was second best on the team behind Manny Machado and Trumbo.

His wins above replacement numbers (0.9 on FanGraphs and 0.6 on Baseball-Reference) don't look great, mostly held down by his ugly advanced defensive metrics in left field. I wouldn't try to tell you that Kim is a good outfielder, but I don't think he's 13 runs below average (according to Defensive Runs Saved data). Even still, Kim is under contract for one more year at around $4 million, and that deal is easily one of the best Dan Duquette has ever made.

Brad Brach

Did you see Brach's season coming? I didn't. There were signs that Brach was going to be good; his 2015 was certainly more than many fans anticipated. And yet, he took another step forward this season. After posting a 2.72 ERA and 3.47 FIP in 2015, Brach improved with a 2.05 ERA and 2.92 FIP this year. He saw a slight uptick in strikeouts while also cutting his walks by about 1.5 per nine innings.

Did Brach wear down in the second half? Maybe. A .211 BABIP in the first half of the season, followed by a .346, might do a better job of explaining some of his second-half struggles, especially since his strikeout and walk numbers were about the same. Still, Brach stepped up in a major way while Darren O'Day missed a chunk of the year battling injuries, and he even made the all-star team. It's hard to ask for much more than that from someone who was acquired for then-minor leaguer Devin Jones.

Dylan Bundy

Any rational O's fan only wanted to see one thing from Bundy in 2016: him escape the season without injury. But not only did Bundy do that, but he started 14 games in the second half and finished the year with almost 110 innings pitched. Before the year, Showalter said the O's wanted to get between 60-75 innings out of Bundy. Mission accomplished, and then some.

As a starter, Bundy posted a 4.52 ERA and sometimes struggled to get through the fifth inning. Nothing about that is surprising, though, and those are actually encouraging numbers for someone many weren't sure would ever throw a meaningful pitch in the majors again. You can't be too sure how long Bundy is ever going to stay healthy, but for now he's fine, and it's at least moderately exciting that he's exploring adding the cutter back to his pitch arsenal.

Caleb Joseph

There are a few other players you could easily include here, but I went with Joseph, who was maybe the O's worst player even when factoring in his limited playing time. Joseph finished the year with a fWAR of -0.9, edging out Joey Rickard (-0.7) for worst on the team. He didn't hit at all, ending the year with a wRC+ of 6 and without a driving in a run in 141 plate appearances.

I don't think anyone expected Joseph to be any kind of force with the bat, and anything around his earlier numbers from 2014 or 2015 would certainly have been accepted. Now, with the strong possibility of Matt Wieters leaving via free agency, Joseph, even with his framing skills and strong arm, is no longer the sure thing to receive a majority of the work behind the plate. The O's could bite the bullet and bring Wieters back on a multi-year deal, or they could look outside the organization for another catcher (Jon has been talking about the possible fit of Jason Castro for much of the season). But the sunny outlook for Joseph is mostly gone.

Honorable mentions: Joey Rickard, Donnie Hart, Trey Mancini, Michael Bourn