Joey Rickard: On-Base Machine?

The World Baseball Classic has begun, but very few people outside of Bruce Chen’s family seem aware of its presence. Even fewer of them care. So, I’ve decided to write about something even more arcane, instead: spring training statistics.

Making sense of the numbers is often a fruitless exercise. There are simply too many variables. Playing time and competition levels vary. Veteran hitters, if they play at all, might use the time to tinker with their swing. Pitchers might be trying out a new grip they learned in winter ball. The overall-theme is more about getting back into a rhythm than it is about posting big stats.  However, if you read between the statistical-lines, you can occasionally glean SOME valuable tidbits of information.

For instance, a high rate of attempted steals could signal a shift in personal or organizational philosophy. A pitcher who is pounding the strike zone while posting a miniscule walk rate may have developed improved control of his stuff. Likewise, a young hitter who posts a good walk-to-strikeout ratio might be seeing the ball particularly-well and is poised for a breakout season.

This leads me to Joey Rickard.

I wrote briefly on the 25-year-old outfielder a few weeks ago. He is one of about 300 players competing for a job in the Baltimore Orioles’ outfield. At the time, I surmised that it might be difficult for a player of his skill-set (right-handed batter, corner-outfielder) to stand out – but, that was before he started channeling his inner-Wade Boggs.

On Monday, Rickard singled and drew a walk. That free pass was his eighth of the spring - a category in which he is currently the MLB-leader.  In those 11 games, he has struck out only three times.

I can already hear the wail of the Sample-Size Police sirens in the distance.  The raw numbers aren't the point; the approach is. 

Mr. Rickard does have some history of being proficient in the on-base department. In 2015, he posted a .431 OPB across three levels of the Rays’ system – including a .437 clip at AAA Durham.

In his MLB-debut, Rickard averaged 4.33 pitches per plate appearance. That would have placed him in some pretty good company, had he stayed healthy long-enough to qualify.


2016 Pitches per plate appearance leaders:

Jayson Werth 4.60
Mike Napoli 4.57
Mike Trout 4.43
Dexter Fowler 4.40
Joey Rickard 4.33
Joe Mauer 4.28
Joey Votto 4.28


That’s a lot of Joey’s (maybe Jonathan Schoop should consider adopting a temporary-name change to help with his plate discipline?). The rest of the guys you’ve no doubt heard of, as well. It's an eclectic list; some pose bigger power threats than others.  The one thing they all share is an apparent enthusiasm for winning the war of attrition against the opposing pitcher via the long at-bat.

So, does that mean Orioles fans should get their pencils and computer mice ready for a full-on, all-star-ballot-stuffing campaign? Not quite yet.

Rickard’s minor league walk-rate hasn’t translated to regular season, MLB action. Last season (in an 85-game sample), he walked a mere 6.4% of the time, while striking-out at a 19.1% clip. Change-ups, in particular, were a bugaboo. He hit an anemic 2 for 24 in at-bats that ended with that pitch – including 14 whiffs.

High strikeout-rates are fine if a player consistently gets on base, or has a chance of sending the ball a long ways when he does connect. Rickard owns some power to the gaps – which is amplified against lefties – but is not your classic slugger. Thus, he will have to be one of those pesky guys who work counts in order to maintain favor with management.

His 36% BB-rate this spring is obviously-untenable. However, it shows he isn’t pressing in his return from the thumb injury that brought a premature end to his rookie season. As starting pitchers ramp up their workloads and fringe-arms are banished to minor league camp or cut, it will be important that Rickard’s production doesn’t taper off.

Spring Training Roster Battle: Corner Outfielder

After a flurry of moves over the last few days, the Orioles have plenty of options for a handful of roster spots. Dan Duquette and Buck Showalter put a premium on having worthwhile fringe roster choices, and that should yet again be the case this season. The O's seem to value players with minor league options remaining more than most teams, and the Triple-A Norfolk shuttle figures to be in use as much as ever in 2017.

With that in mind, let's look ahead to the possible opening day roster. Not every player the Orioles want to keep has a minor league option left, so they'll have to make some tough decisions in key spots.

Here are the likely locks (with the assumption that Chris Tillman will start the season on the new, 10-day disabled list).

C: Welington Castillo
C: Caleb Joseph
1B: Chris Davis
2B: Jonathan Schoop
SS: J.J. Hardy
3B: Manny Machado
DH/OF/1B: Mark Trumbo
LF: Hyun Soo Kim
CF: Adam Jones
RF/LF: Seth Smith
UTIL: Ryan Flaherty
SP: Kevin Gausman
SP: Ubaldo Jimenez
SP: Dylan Bundy
SP: Wade Miley
RP: Zach Britton
RP: Brad Brach
RP: Mychal Givens
RP: Darren O'Day
RP: Donnie Hart

That's 20 locks. That leaves spots for at least two more outfielders, maybe a corner infielder/bench bat, and two more pitchers. It's worth noting that because of April off-days, the Orioles don't need their fifth starter, Tillman (if healthy), until later in the month.

Let's take a look at the first battleground, corner outfield, while a future post or two will look closer at the reliever and potential infielder battle.

Battle 1: Corner Outfield

Realistic options: Joey Rickard, Aneury Tavarez, Anthony Santander, Michael Bourn, Craig Gentry

Adam Jones asked for more defensive-minded outfield help a few weeks ago, and Duquette recently obliged by signing Craig Gentry and Michael Bourn to minor league deals. Last year, the Orioles broke camp with five outfielders (Rickard, Jones, Trumbo, Kim, and Nolan Reimold). The first four are back, but Reimold is gone. Pedro Alvarez, basically a DH-only player at this point in his career, is also not around. Because of his absence, Trumbo figures to get more work at DH this season.

Throwing a wrench into things are the two Rule 5 picks, Tavarez and Santander. Tavarez, along with Bourn and Gentry, seems to fit what the O's roster lacks: speed and improved corner outfield defense. Gentry is the more well-regarded defender of the group, something which both scouts and the advanced defensive metrics agree on. Bourn is no longer a good option in center field and doesn't have a great arm, but he does still have range suitable enough for the corners. Tavarez seems to fit that mold as well, though he lacks the major league track record of Bourn and Gentry.

At 22, Santander is the youngest of the group, and probably the one with the highest ceiling. John Sickels listed Santander as the No. 5 prospect in the O's system, while MLB Pipeline placed him 15th. Fifth does seem aggressive, but then again, the Orioles' farm system is far from highly rated. It's sad (though amusing) that a Rule 5 pick can immediately be considered a team's top five prospect.

Unlike the other outfield options, Santander is more known for his offensive talents. It's almost impossible to read something about him without a comparison to Victor Martinez. Still, he has a few things working against him sticking with the Orioles: he had offseason shoulder surgery, which he's working his way back from; he's never played above Single-A ball; and he has to stick with the major league club for at least 90 days to stay in the organization. With some disabled list and roster wizardry, it wouldn't be impossible for the Orioles to try and keep Santander around; the shoulder concerns could help in that regard. But that roster spot could also be used to keep around a late-game defensive outfield replacement, which figures to be used often to protect leads with Kim, Smith, and Trumbo on the roster. Maybe it all depends how Santander's shoulder progresses.

Orioles fans are more than familiar by now with Rickard, who they hope transforms into someone like Gentry: a right-handed platoon bat with strong defensive skills. Gentry has a career 97 wRC+ against opposite-handed throwers, while in limited duty last year, Rickard posted a 131 wRC+ against lefties. Rickard isn't that good against southpaws, but it does make you wonder how useful he'd be in that role, especially if his defense improves.

Rickard's defense was talked up a lot last year, but he struggled at times. While he made some flashy plays, he did not always read the ball well off the bat and missed some plays a quality defender would make. Some of that could easily be chalked up to being a rookie. Still, Rickard has minor league options remaining, meaning the O's can give any of the other outfielders a look, if they choose.

There's one more curveball here, and it's that Bourn has an opt-out date of March 25 if he's not on the major league roster. So if the Orioles want to keep him around, he'll need to make the club this spring.

Prediction: I think the Orioles will start the season with Rickard and Bourn on the opening day roster, while placing Santander on the 60-day disabled list. I think they'll send Tavarez back to Boston, and they'll release Gentry (while also trying to keep him in the organization).

Showalter covets the flexibility that Bourn provides, and I think it matters that he joined the team last year and is familiar with what his role will be. Showalter also loves Rickard and took the chance to mention a bunch of times in the second half of last season that they really could have used him (he was out with a thumb injury and didn't play after July 20). There's a case for starting the year with Bourn/Gentry on the roster, optioning Rickard, and giving Gentry a chance, but I would guess that won't happen. And I think the O's will opt to try and keep Santander over Tavarez, though it'll take some slick roster maneuvering throughout the year.

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More from Camden Depot:

- Yesterday, I joined Derek Martin on his Upon Further Review podcast to talk some Orioles baseball. Thanks to Derek for the invitation; it was a fun conversation. Check it out.

- Jon answered some questions for Cards Conclave's "Playing Pepper" series. You can see some of his thoughts on the O's offseason along with some predictions for the upcoming season.

Spring Training 2017: Three O's With Something To Prove

It’s February, but DMV-residents were treated to a preview of spring over the weekend.

Temperatures surged past 60, and streets were marked by the symphony of skateboards, children, and barking dogs.

Spring represents a whole bunch of clichés about new beginnings and slate wiping. For baseball, of course, it means spring training is finally on the doorstep.

For some players, it represents a chance to make a new mark. For others, it is a chance to change an old one. Here are three Orioles who have the most at stake this spring training:

Tyler Wilson, RHP 

In 2016, Tyler Wilson went on a 10-game stretch where he posted a 4.58 ERA, while averaging nearly six innings a start. Then, he hit a rocky patch and was shipped off to Norfolk. By the end of the season he was back, but was relegated to random, bullpen work.

With Chris Tillman (shoulder) out for spring training and questionable to begin the season, a number of players stand to benefit. Wilson is in that group, which also includes the Mike Wrights and Logan Verretts of the world. (Ed. note: After some recent moves, Vidal Nuno and Gabriel Ynoa are also in the mix.)

Wilson is an undersized right-hander with a 90 MPH fastball and an average change-up and slider. At 27, he’s too old to be considered a true prospect, but he has shown incremental improvement over the years.

The former UVA-standout is a control specialist, which is a polite way of saying low strikeout-totals.  However, he did post a reasonable K-rate in AAA (7.4 K/9 between three seasons), which translated to 4.9 in the big leagues.     

He needs to do a better job of keeping the ball in the yard (15 home runs allowed in 94 innings) but, realistically, what you want from your fifth starter is a guy who can hold his own against big-league hitters and absorb innings.  Wilson has proven he can do that reasonably well. 

With a good spring training performance, he can reinsert himself into the starter-discussion, and make long relief closer to his floor – not his ceiling.

Trey Mancini/Joey Rickard 1B/OF

Okay, I cheated, but I couldn’t resist throwing these players in together because, well, they strike me as similar players who are at similar crossroads, career-wise.

They are both right-handed hitters around the same age (Mancini is 24, Rickard is 25.  Mancini has more pop but Rickard has more defensive-versatility in his ability to play all three outfield spots.  That makes them prototypical players for the Showalter regime.  On the other, it makes them harder to stand out, in an already-crowded field.*

Currently, Rickard has the larger portfolio of major league success, appearing in 85 games last year. He posted .696 OPS in his first taste of big-league action before succumbing to season-ending thumb surgery.

The Orioles responded, this off-season, by signing everyone under the sun. They traded for Seth Smith, a lefty who can play both corner spots. They brought back Mark Trumbo, who will split time between right field and DH. They sent spring training invites to veteran outfielders Craig Gentry, Logan Schaefer, Chris Dickerson, and David Washington.

And, don't forget Baltimore's rule 5 selections Anthony Santander and Aneury Tavarez, who both play - you guessed it - outfield positions.  Throw in incumbent left fielder, Hyun Soo Kim, and you've got yourself a party. 

As for Mancini, he made a memorable - albeit brief - 2016 debut, smacking three home runs in five games. A first baseman by trade, he has but one obstacle in his path. Unfortunately, that obstacle (some guy named Chris Davis) is in year two of a $161 million, mega-deal and is going nowhere.  While Mancini could split time between first and DH, Trumbo's presence means opportunities for the latter would be limited. 

Mancini and Rickard might be squeezed out by the numbers game.  Then again, the duo could make that decision much harder by simply raking, this spring. At the very least, it would improve their stock as trade bait, if Baltimore chooses to shore up areas where it is not so loaded.

J.J. Hardy

It might seem an odd choice to include the 34-year-old veteran on this list. Hardy won’t be busting his butt to make the team. However, he does enter spring training with things to prove.

For starters, he needs to flash some of that old pop he used to show so readily. In every full-season he played, from 2007 to 2013, Hardy hit no fewer than 22 home runs. Up to that point, his career-slugging percentage was .428.

It’s been a different story, the past three years. Injuries have sapped his playing time and affected his counting stats, but he hasn’t exactly been lighting the world on fire when he has played. From 2014-16, he’s slugged a pedestrian .346.

Part of it could simply be attributed to a natural product of aging. However, while everyone gets old, not everyone has a chance to play professional baseball. Hardy not only has that chance, but he is young enough to merit one last, multi-year contract for big money if he is motivated enough. 

2017 is the last guaranteed year of the extension he signed in 2014. The Orioles hold a club option for 2018, but would be unlikely to exercise it if Hardy tanks at the plate again.

Hardy is still an excellent defender, but glove-first middle infielders can be had for much cheaper than his $14 million option. Plus, the Orioles have Manny Machado, whose natural position is shortstop.

However, if he can post a respectable OBP, with 15-20 home runs, the Orioles might be open to negotiating another extension. Or, if the club is out of contention, he could be interesting trade candidate, if he is willing to waive his 10-5 rights.

Getting off to a fast start would definitely help. With that in mind, Hardy needs to show up for spring training showing that he’s healthy, focused, and is seeing the ball well.

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Update: The field got even more crowded yesterday as Baltimore signed veteran outfielder, Michael Bourn, to a minor-league deal.  He will join the O's in big league camp where he will compete for a job.

The Orioles Already Have A Capable Leadoff Option (Or Platoon)

In 2016, Orioles leadoff hitters had a combined wRC+ of 94. That was fourth worst in the American League. O's hitters in the second lineup slot, meanwhile, had a wRC+ of 121. That was good enough for third best.

The majority of leadoff plate appearances went to Adam Jones (488) and Joey Rickard (183). Jones is not a leadoff hitter, but did a competent job there last season (108 wRC+) while not reaching base at a high clip (.320 OBP). Most of the plate appearances in the No. 2 lineup spot went to Hyun Soo Kim (259), Manny Machado (164), and Jonathan Schoop (125). Machado and Kim were two of the O's best hitters last season, so it's not surprising then that the results from that spot in the order would be better than those of the leadoff spot.

It's well-worn territory by now where certain types of hitters should go in a team's lineup (and also that, by and large, the lineup order isn't that important - but it still matters somewhat and is easy/fun to discuss). There's plenty to read on efficient lineup ordering, and I summarized the Orioles' situation last season while arguing that Machado should bat second, not third. Machado should certainly bat second the majority of the time in 2017, while Jones should be placed lower in the order.

The first part of who should bat leadoff, then, is at least clear. Kim should bat first against right-handed pitching. In his first major league season, Kim was nearly 30% better than league average against opposite-handed throwers. Of all batters with at least 300 plate appearances, his .382 on-base percentage was 18th best in the majors. Against right-handers only, his .393 OBP was tied for ninth best overall (minimum 250 plate appearances).

For the Orioles, it's been a while since they had someone with Kim's on-base skills. In the Expansion Era, the longest the Orioles had gone from 1961 to 2008 without a hitter with an on-base percentage of at least .380 was three years. The Orioles went eight years, however, between Markakis's .406 OBP in 2008 and Kim's .382 OBP last season. The Orioles need to do whatever it takes to utilize Kim's skills at reaching base while they have him.

There's a decent argument that Kim should play every game and bat first, despite his struggles in limited duty against left-handed pitchers. I'd have no issue with that. Another option, though, would be to deploy a leadoff platoon: Kim vs. right-handers and Rickard vs. left-handers. I'm far from the only person to believe that platoon would make sense, even if you don't think that Kim (129 wRC+ in 323 PA) and Rickard (131 wRC+ in 90 PA) will be able to replicate their strong showing against opposite-handed throwers going forward.

But, so what? What are the alternatives? It's not Jones and his career 107 wRC+. Seth Smith is similar to Kim as a more proven left-handed platoon bat, so he might work. Kim on-base skills seem superior, however, so Smith could be a nice fit in the middle of the lineup, since Buck Showalter relishes alternating right- and left-handed batters (or at least trying to).

There's no option that sounds more enticing than either batting Kim leadoff full-time (less likely) or using the Kim/Rickard platoon (more likely). Showalter already learned his lesson last season when he benched Kim for most of April. It's time to give him a shot from day one in 2017 and see what he can do.

Stats via FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, and the Play Index

Who Were The Five Biggest Surprises For The Orioles In 2016?

For the most part, the Orioles did what you expected this past season. The lineup hit a ton of home runs. The starting rotation wasn't good, but it did enough to enable the Orioles to make the playoffs. And the bullpen was excellent. But every season has its share of surprises, and these were the five biggest ones for the 2016 season.

Mark Trumbo

The Orioles didn't bring Trumbo aboard to steal a bunch of bases or transform into a useful defensive outfielder. He was added because of his ability to hit the ball out of the ballpark. And he did that -- 47 times, to be exact. That was four more times than the next closest player (Nelson Cruz, of course). Trumbo continued the run of O's players leading the majors in home runs. The last time that didn't happen was in 2012, when Miguel Cabrera finished with 44 taters.

The Orioles essentially picked Trumbo up in a salary dump, and he rewarded them by matching his best offensive season in 2012 (123 wRC+ this year, and a 124 wRC+ in 2012). Not bad. He also excelled primarily versus right-handed pitching, which was particularly odd, but definitely welcome.

Hyun Soo Kim

We've been over this, but a quick recap: Buck Showalter didn't want Kim on the major league roster to start the year. The Orioles explored getting rid of him before the season even started.  He was booed on opening day. Kim barely played in March and April. But whenever Kim played, he hit, forcing his way onto the lineup card. His .382 on-base percentage was the best among O's regulars by nearly 40 points. His 119 wRC+ was second best on the team behind Manny Machado and Trumbo.

His wins above replacement numbers (0.9 on FanGraphs and 0.6 on Baseball-Reference) don't look great, mostly held down by his ugly advanced defensive metrics in left field. I wouldn't try to tell you that Kim is a good outfielder, but I don't think he's 13 runs below average (according to Defensive Runs Saved data). Even still, Kim is under contract for one more year at around $4 million, and that deal is easily one of the best Dan Duquette has ever made.

Brad Brach

Did you see Brach's season coming? I didn't. There were signs that Brach was going to be good; his 2015 was certainly more than many fans anticipated. And yet, he took another step forward this season. After posting a 2.72 ERA and 3.47 FIP in 2015, Brach improved with a 2.05 ERA and 2.92 FIP this year. He saw a slight uptick in strikeouts while also cutting his walks by about 1.5 per nine innings.

Did Brach wear down in the second half? Maybe. A .211 BABIP in the first half of the season, followed by a .346, might do a better job of explaining some of his second-half struggles, especially since his strikeout and walk numbers were about the same. Still, Brach stepped up in a major way while Darren O'Day missed a chunk of the year battling injuries, and he even made the all-star team. It's hard to ask for much more than that from someone who was acquired for then-minor leaguer Devin Jones.

Dylan Bundy

Any rational O's fan only wanted to see one thing from Bundy in 2016: him escape the season without injury. But not only did Bundy do that, but he started 14 games in the second half and finished the year with almost 110 innings pitched. Before the year, Showalter said the O's wanted to get between 60-75 innings out of Bundy. Mission accomplished, and then some.

As a starter, Bundy posted a 4.52 ERA and sometimes struggled to get through the fifth inning. Nothing about that is surprising, though, and those are actually encouraging numbers for someone many weren't sure would ever throw a meaningful pitch in the majors again. You can't be too sure how long Bundy is ever going to stay healthy, but for now he's fine, and it's at least moderately exciting that he's exploring adding the cutter back to his pitch arsenal.

Caleb Joseph

There are a few other players you could easily include here, but I went with Joseph, who was maybe the O's worst player even when factoring in his limited playing time. Joseph finished the year with a fWAR of -0.9, edging out Joey Rickard (-0.7) for worst on the team. He didn't hit at all, ending the year with a wRC+ of 6 and without a driving in a run in 141 plate appearances.

I don't think anyone expected Joseph to be any kind of force with the bat, and anything around his earlier numbers from 2014 or 2015 would certainly have been accepted. Now, with the strong possibility of Matt Wieters leaving via free agency, Joseph, even with his framing skills and strong arm, is no longer the sure thing to receive a majority of the work behind the plate. The O's could bite the bullet and bring Wieters back on a multi-year deal, or they could look outside the organization for another catcher (Jon has been talking about the possible fit of Jason Castro for much of the season). But the sunny outlook for Joseph is mostly gone.

Honorable mentions: Joey Rickard, Donnie Hart, Trey Mancini, Michael Bourn

Where The Orioles Miss Joey Rickard

By now, it's well documented that this year's version of the Orioles has not been very good against left-handed pitching. Against right-handed pitching, the O's offense ranks third in the majors with a .340 wOBA. But against lefties, they drop all the way to 27th with a wOBA of .295.

The weird thing about that? The O's have a lot of right-handed power bats. There's Adam Jones (.319 career wOBA vs. LHP), Mark Trumbo (.339), Manny Machado (.334), Jonathan Schoop (.269), Steve Pearce (after the trade), and even the switch-hitting Matt Wieters (.344), who historically has performed better from the right side of the plate. Jones and Schoop have been better hitters throughout their careers against right-handed pitching, but besides Machado (who's been excellent), they've all been below average against lefties. Trumbo, Jones, and Wieters have been particularly awful against southpaws this year.

While much of the early season hype of Joey Rickard has dissipated -- both because he cooled off immensely and he's been on the shelf for a while with a thumb injury -- the Orioles have missed his offense against left-handed pitching. Rickard's .369 wOBA against lefties is second best on the O's behind Machado (.381).

Certainly Pearce has shown throughout his career that he can handle lefties, but Nolan Reimold, who's received some extra work with Rickard on the disabled list, has not. Reimold has a .259 wOBA in 103 trips to the plate against lefties, though it's not like he's a lefty masher anyway (career .318 wOBA, 93 wRC+ vs. LHP). Hyun Soo Kim still has not received many plate appearances against lefties (23), but he hasn't done much with them either. He's walked and struck out four times each, plus he was hit by a pitch, but he has yet to record a base hit. That's a BABIP of zero, if you're scoring at home.

Even though it took Buck Showalter a long time before inserting Kim into the lineup regularly -- and Kim all but forced Showalter's hand by hitting in nearly every opportunity he received -- the Kim/Rickard combination had been extremely successful. Kim has a wRC+ of 136 against right-handed pitching, and Rickard has a 130 wRC+ against lefties. That's how you draw up a platoon.

It's unclear whether Kim and Rickard are really this good against opposite-handed throwers. That will play itself out over the rest of this year and in 2017, which is the last season of Kim's two-year deal. Regardless, while Rickard is out (possibly for the rest of the season) and the O's search for any kind of short-term outfield help in Drew Stubbs and Michael Bourn, don't buy into the hype that the Orioles miss Rickard's defense more than anything. He's better defensively than Trumbo or Kim, which isn't exactly a high bar, but being fast doesn't make you a plus outfielder.

Hyun Soo Kim Has Been A Revelation

Depending on what you believe, Hyun Soo Kim's first year with the Orioles was close to not happening. Before he ever played an inning of regular season baseball, the Orioles were exploring how to get out of his contract (signed just a few months prior). As Roch Kubatko of MASN wrote in late March, "I checked again last night and the Orioles definitely are open to moving Kim, whose performance hasn’t met expectations." That would be his highly scrutinized spring training performance.

Kim did not hit well in spring training, and that, combined with other concerns (defense? baserunning? money?), put Kim's Orioles' career in jeopardy before it ever really started. The Orioles wanted Kim to start the year in Triple-A. He justifiably declined. Some fans foolishly called Kim selfish, and some even made the puzzling decision to boo him on opening day. Adam Jones rightfully admonished fans afterward.

That brings us to Kim's actual production during his debut season. Here's a summary: He just keeps hitting. Kim didn't make his debut until the O's sixth game, when he collected two singles in three trips to the plate. He appeared in the lineup sporadically through mid-May. Because he kept hitting and getting on base, he finally started seeing his name in the lineup regularly starting on May 25.

Overall, it's hard not to be impressed by the numbers. In 137 plate appearances, Kim has posted a 148 wRC+. That's second-best on the Orioles, behind Manny Machado (159 wRC+). Kim is almost certainly not this good -- a BABIP of .390 is propping up his numbers to some extent -- but he has been excellent so far and has given the Orioles way, way more than they thought they were getting in March. (Seriously, go through Kubatko's post above comparing Kim and Rickard. It's amusing.)

At the time Kim's signing was announced, fans were hoping that Kim could provide an on-base threat. He's done exactly that, with a .438 on-base percentage. That's the highest among all major league hitters with at least 100 plate appearances (David Ortiz is second at .433). Kim has walked exactly as many times as he's struck out (16), and his walk rate of 11.7% trails only Chris Davis (13.6%).

One of the amusing parts of the Orioles trying to get out of Kim's contract before the season is that not only did it seem like a reasonable deal at the time, but it only looks better now. The Orioles signed Kim for two years and $7 million, and based on his production (0.9 fWAR, 0.7 bWAR), he's essentially been worth his contract so far with a season and a half to go. Even if Kim performs at replacement level for the rest of his deal, his contract has already been worth it.

You probably couldn't have predicted it based on how the season started -- Kim buried on the bench; Adam Jones battling an injury; Joey Rickard receiving an extended stretch of at-bats as the team's everyday leadoff hitter -- but the Orioles have stumbled into an effective left field platoon with Kim and Rickard. This is how the two have performed against opposite-handed throwers:

Kim vs. RHP: 152 wRC+
Rickard vs. LHP: 129 wRC+

That is very strong production, especially considering how terrible O's left fielders were just a season ago. Perhaps Kim should be playing even more and given a chance to show what he can do against lefties, but it's hard to argue with the results.

Kim has exceeded all expectations, even before taking into account the drama during and after spring training, combined with being chained to the bench for a while. Kim hasn't reached (and likely won't reach) the point where it's expected to see him bat about 50% better than the league average. But at least 10-20% is certainly within play, and if anyone would have guaranteed you that before the season, you would have been thrilled. The same goes for the Orioles, who are surely just as surprised.

All I know is that I'd be just fine with more moments like this:

Hyun Soo #Kim's 2-run homer #2 (Korean call) #Orioles pic.twitter.com/op33xWweBU

— Joseph Kim (@blackwings2011) June 29, 2016

A Closer Look At Joey Rickard's Defense

If there's anything surprising about Joey Rickard so far, it's been that his bat has been decent but his glove has been underwhelming. At the very least, Rickard was supposed to provide a decent outfield glove as a fourth outfielder type. Instead, he's been installed as the team's everyday left fielder and leadoff hitter.

Right now, Rickard has a wRC+ of 99. The league average left fielder also has a wRC+ of 99. However, the average leadoff hitter has a wRC+ of 109. I've been critical of Rickard offensively and still don't quite understand why he's being used the way he is, but at the plate, he's been fine for now. Getting league average offensive output from Joey Rickard is perfectly acceptable. And it's not surprising or a knock on him at all that he's in the bottom half of leadoff hitters in terms of production. He has not been a disaster there by any means, but he hasn't been great. So it's a little strange that he has such a stranglehold on the leadoff spot in the lineup.

Still, in terms of wins above replacement, Rickard rates negatively. The driving force there by Fangraphs' and Baseball-Reference's versions of WAR (currently -0.3 in both) is his poor early defensive ratings (and a tiny slice is that he has done some bad things on the basepaths). Rickard has spent a decent amount of time in all three outfield positions, and he's amassed a UZR of -6.5 (UZR/150 of -33.9) and a DRS of -6. Now, it's tough to state definitively what exactly a full season's worth of defensive metrics actually means, let alone about 250 innings. So who's is to say that Rickard can't improve, or isn't at least close to average?

But I don't think it's unfair to say that while he's made a few nice plays in the field, Rickard has not come as advertised with the glove. In his time in the minors, Rickard logged more than 1,000 innings each in center field and right field. In left field, he logged more than 500. So he's had a lot of experience. Still, playing competent defense at the major league level is an entirely different animal.

All right, so let's get to some examples. Here's one of Rickard's first tough chances on the season. Take a look:

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You'll notice a few things. First, it was a nice effort, so that's something. The ball was just out of his grasp, and it would have looked pretty nice were he to have made the play. You'll also notice that Rickard didn't take the best route to the ball, and that also it maybe wasn't the best decision to dive and take a chance. Yes, of course it's easy to say that after the fact. But that's what happens with split-second decisions. Flashy plays always look impressive, but sometimes just keeping the ball in front and avoiding mistakes is the job of an outfielder. We'll revisit Rickard's route-taking and decision making.

A day later, Rickard had a semi-tough chance on a ball in front of him:

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I think even Rickard would tell you that he should have caught that ball. But wait, the play isn't over.

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Rickard stayed with the play, gathered the ball, and rifled it home to nab the runner. Nice throw.

Here was a pivotal play in a tie game:

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Rickard struggled with the transfer and ended up double-pumping before unleashing a throw too late to catch the runner at home. Maybe it's a bit unfair to be too harsh on this play; the weather was wet, and that didn't make things easy. But Adam Eaton was just rounding third when Rickard scooped up the ball, and it wasn't like the throw was coming from deep in the outfield.

Here was a decent play by Rickard on a line drive to right-center:

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One thing to pay attention to on hits to the outfield is how quickly a fielder reacts to a ball, particularly a line drive. When the camera shifts to the outfield after a hit, you can tell if a fielder is slow to react and/or gets a bad read. If the fielder is already off and moving -- in the right direction -- then that's a great sign. In the play above, Rickard is already moving. The ball carries a bit more than Rickard anticipates, so he has to jump at the last second to snag the ball. Maybe he got a little lucky, but that ball was also roped.

In a late-game play against the Yankees, Rickard misplayed a carom off the wall in right field:

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There's not much to say here, as it seems like he just missed the ball. But these little things add up.

Among the GIFs in this post, here is what I think is Rickard's second-best play:

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He reacts to the ball off the bat relatively quickly, though he doesn't take a direct route to the ball. Again, line drives are tricky. But even though he hasn't had a bunch of difficult chances yet, less than ideal routes to the ball will make it hard for Rickard to truly utilize his speed and run down tough chances.

But here's my favorite play from Rickard so far:

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Plays like that make me think there's still time for Rickard to show he can be a competent outfielder. Considering how he was described when the Orioles selected him in the Rule 5 draft, I expected Rickard to be a little more polished in terms of reads and routes. But he is a rookie, and he at least won't be asked to play center field unless Adam Jones gets hurt again. Besides, Rickard's arm is OK, but it plays much better in left field.

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I think the Orioles are still trying to figure out what they have in Rickard. If I had to guess, I would say he'll regress a bit with the bat and improve with the glove. I'm more than happy to be wrong that he shouldn't be playing every day, especially as the team's leadoff hitter. Still, at 20-12, the O's are in no position to panic or really change anything. That's probably not what Hyun Soo Kim or Nolan Reimold want to hear.

Regarding Rickard's outfield defense, it's evident that speed is not everything. Clearly being fleet of foot helps an outfielder, but reading the ball off the bat and taking an efficient route to a fly ball or line drive is more important. It's also key to pick and choose the right spots to lay out for a ball. These are things a rookie may learn, but there's no guarantee of that, either.

Bottom Of O's Lineup Not Pulling Its Weight

The Orioles' offense this year has primarily been carried by three middle-of-the-order bats: Manny Machado (200 wRC+), Mark Trumbo (192 wRC+), and Chris Davis (142 wRC+). Besides success in limited at-bats by Nolan Reimold and Hyun Soo Kim, the rest of the lineup has been around average -- J.J. Hardy (103 wRC+), Joey Rickard (90 wRC+) -- or significantly below.

First, with Hardy, remember that his two home runs near Pesky Pole in Fenway Park are bumping up his numbers. Of course they count, but they are also the only two homers he's hit this season. Still, after his disastrous offensive campaign in 2015, anything close to average production would be a significant improvement.

Let's also have a chat about Rickard. He got off to a scalding start, with an endless array of grounders, bloops, and flares dropping in for hits. But his batting average on balls in play has come back down to earth, he's not drawing walks or hitting the ball hard, and he's striking out as much as Adam Jones. Rickard also hinted that opposing pitchers are being more forceful in attacking him. He's done a pretty good job in terms of pitches seen per plate appearance, but it's much more important to actually get on base.

Of course, you'd take a 90 wRC+ from Rickard, a fourth outfielder type, if he were a plus defensive outfielder. That was the notion passed along from beat reporters during the spring, and I don't think it's out of the question for him to be above average defensively or at worst average, at least in left field. But he's had his missteps, doesn't always look fluid, and early on has rated poorly by both UZR and DRS metrics -- the latter of which has placed him below replacement level on both FanGraphs (-0.4 fWAR) and Baseball-Reference (-0.5 bWAR).

Jones, who still seems to be dealing with a rib-cage injury, has certainly struggled as well (64 wRC+), but so has nearly every other regular who bats sixth and below: Matt Wieters (81 wRC+), Jonathan Schoop (70 wRC+), and Pedro Alvarez (61 wRC+). With Schoop, you can at least point to a low BABIP (.204) for hope for a quick turnaround. He's also been above the league average when it comes to hitting the ball hard. But, obviously, plate discipline will continue to be a concern for him.

Wieters is playing for his next contract, but he's looking the same as always at the plate: above average for a catcher, but not much more than that. The main positive is that he appears to be healthy, and he could pick things up as the season goes along. But you should know what Wieters is at this point, and he's not a star.

Alvarez has picked things up as of late, and he has walked a ton (15.7 BB%). Alvarez has yet to hit his first home run for the Orioles, which is somewhat surprising, because even Rickard has one. Kim, Caleb Joseph, and Ryan Flaherty are also homer-less so far.

In terms of bottom-of-the-order upside in the next few weeks or months, it's probably with him and Schoop. Now would also be a good time to remove Rickard from the leadoff spot and stop playing him every day. It was smart to ride that wave for a while, and if he starts hitting again, he could always move back to that role. A lineup isn't set in stone, and there's nothing wrong with batting Rickard ninth for a while. The Orioles really don't have a good leadoff hitter type for that spot, and maybe ensuring that Machado, Davis, and Trumbo bat as much as possible is the way to go. The second spot is ideal for Machado, but not at the cost of batting a below average hitter first.

Like many fans, I'd like to see more of Kim. Reimold has also made a case for more playing time, but considering his injury history, I think it's smart to spread out his at-bats. Maybe they're being spread out too far. You can also argue that either Kim or Reimold should be playing more than Rickard. Reimold is far from a defensive wizard, and gauging from limited action Kim is clearly not that kind of player either, but the early thought that Rickard was far enough superior defensively to make up for OK plate production doesn't seem to be the case. Trumbo should play right field against right-handed pitchers and DH against lefties (which he basically is), but more outfield at-bats should be up for grabs.

Expanded Roster: JO-EY, JO-EY And The Rule 5 Draft

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JO-EY JO-EY: Joey Rickard and the Rule 5 Draft
By Joe Wantz

photo by Keith Allison

The Orioles love the Rule 5 draft. They love the Rule 5 draft like Romeo loved Juliet. They love the Rule 5 draft like Baltimoreans love crab cakes. They love the Rule 5 draft like…ok, you get the idea. The Orioles have selected a player in every Rule 5 draft since 2006, though not all of those have ended up making the team. That’s eleven straight drafts. The next longest streak? The Phillies, with selections in four straight.

Clearly, the Orioles see value in the Rule 5 draft that most teams do not, and the makeup of the team is reflective of that viewpoint. They have carried a Rule 5 player on the Major League roster each year since 2012 and currently have three Rule 5 picks on the 25 man: Ryan Flaherty, TJ McFarland, and Ted Williams…er, Joey Rickard. The man, the myth, the leadoff hitter has had a phenomenal start to his career as an Oriole, providing good defense, good contact skills, an outstanding eye at the plate, and even a little bit of power. It started in Spring Training, with Rickard slashing a phenomenal .397/.472/.571 with a home run and five stolen bases. He was good enough not only to make the team out of camp but to start in left field on Opening Day. Since then, he hasn’t looked back, starting each of the team’s first 7 games and hitting .370/.367/.556 in the season’s first week.

This is, to say the least, a surprising turn of events. Less that the Orioles kept a Rule 5 player (which is right up there with the sun rising in terms of a shocker) and more that he has looked like anything but. After a somewhat lackluster start to his minor league career, Rickard broke out in 2015 as a member of the Tampa Bay organization, putting up a .360/.437/.472 debut at AAA Durham in 2015. This makes it all the more notable that Rickard was exposed to the Rule 5 draft and made it to the 8th overall pick. That may be due to his overall scouting report, which portrayed Rickard as a good fourth outfielder as opposed to a regular contributor.

He was, however, the 98th ranked prospect in Fangraphs’ KATOH projection system published in late 2015 and had previously been ranked as a top 10 prospect for the Rays. KATOH takes a novel approach to prospect evaluation, focusing not on projectability and scouting reports but solely on minor league statistics. As a result, KATOH differs fairly significantly from more traditional prospect rankings and does not take into account player tools. This is certainly not meant to be a definitive model of player evaluation (which the creator Chris Mitchell readily admits), but it does provide a way to look at players who might otherwise be undervalued by traditional scouting.

This projection fits in with the Orioles’ initial interest in Rickard. Steve Melewski of MASN reported this week that it was not the Orioles’ scouting department that took an interest in him but rather the analytics staff. This put him on GM Dan Duquette’s radar screen, and that interest was confirmed by Felipe Alou Jr., who coached Rickard’s Dominican Winter League team and runs the O’s Dominican academy. This dovetailing of analytics and scouting has, at least so far, made the Orioles look like a bunch of geniuses.

Of course, Rickard’s current production is very unlikely to continue. He is almost certainly not going to be an All Star-type performer, but there is reason to believe that his skill set can play at the Major League level. KATOH projected Rickard to put up 3.8 WAR through his age 28 season, which would be 2019. At this rate, he might eclipse that mark this season, but let’s optimistically say the number is somewhere around 2.5 WAR per year. This would put him at +10 WAR for his career. That would be a solid number for most players but extraordinary for a Rule 5 pick. The table below shows the top 12 performers by career WAR that have been selected and kept by a new team in the Rule 5 draft since 2006.

Name	Year	Original Team	New Team	Career WAR
Josh Hamilton	2006	Tampa Bay	Cubs	27.8
R.A. Dickey	2007	Minnesota	Seattle	16.3
Joakim Soria	2006	San Diego	Kansas City	9.7
Everth Cabrera	2008	Colorado	San Diego	4.2
Odubel Herrera	2014	Texas	Philadelphia	3.9
Hector Rondon	2012	Cleveland	Cubs	3.1
Jared Burton	2006	Oakland	Cincinnati	2.8
Josh Fields	2012	Boston	Houston	2.4
Mark Canha	2014	Miami	Oakland	1.4
Ryan Flaherty	2011	Cubs	Baltimore	1.4
Delino DeShields, Jr.	2014	Houston	Texas	1.2
TJ McFarland	2012	Cleveland	Baltimore	0.9

Note: The new team column doesn’t necessarily show the team the player ended up on, just the one that drafted them in the Rule 5. Hamilton, for example, was drafted by the Cubs and subsequently traded to the Reds.

We can see a few things here. First, the Orioles are nicely represented (I’m positive they signed Cabrera because he was once a Rule 5 guy but can’t prove it). Second, successful Rule 5 picks are hard to come by. Out of all the Rule 5 picks since 2006, only eleven have a career WAR of over 1. Rickard himself, at 0.3, is already in the top 15 after one week! The most notable names on the list are obviously the first three, with Josh Hamilton and R.A. Dickey being the obvious outliers. Those guys won an MVP and Cy Young award, respectively, and were well above average performers for several seasons. Soria has been, at times, a dominant reliever and has overcome some injury issues to settle into being a pretty good one.

A final interesting thing about this list is the fact that three of the top performers by WAR were drafted in the 2014 Rule 5: Odubel Herrera, Mark Canha, and Delino DeShields Jr. While none of those guys profile as future stars, they are useful players that have some upside for their teams. Indeed, with so much good young talent in the big leagues, perhaps this is a golden age in Rule 5 history.

Ultimately, it seems likely that Rickard will settle into that category. It is not particularly difficult to imagine him being a starting outfielder and giving the Orioles solid production. The 2.5 WAR per year would be a pretty aggressive projection to be sure, but even if he doesn’t hit for power or post a great batting average he can provide value with his defense and base running abilities. He has already shown those skills in his short time in Baltimore and figures to have a long leash this season. Hyun-Soo Kim and Nolan Reimold don’t seem like particularly big playing time threats at this point and it seems likely that Rickard will stay in the lineup when Adam Jones returns from injury. He may never reach the heights of someone like Josh Hamilton, but Rickard could very well end up being one of the best Rule 5 players of the past decade. We all might want to get used to chanting JO-EY JO-EY at the yard.