Brad Brach was traded for permission, the permission to spend an extra 250k on international prospects. No, this does not mean that the Braves sent the Orioles 250k to spend. It means that the Braves reduced their allowed expenditure on foreign amateur talent under 23 years of age and the Orioles increased theirs. This concept hopefully is familiar as the Orioles have discharged themselves of this permission to the tune of about 10 MM these past two years.
That leaves the question: What does 250k get you on the international market. Back in the day (2011), I wrote a column for ESPN. To save you the trouble of reading it, I was inspired to write it after thinking about how the Orioles under MacPhail explicitly noted that the market in Latin America was overpriced and was a foolish way to spend money. Of course, that was a silly conclusion as available talent and access to that talent really meant that domestic amateurs were simply artificially compromised with their earning potential and that talent was less limited elsewhere. Anyway, I came to the conclusion that 61 cents spent at home was equivalent to a dollar spent abroad.
So let us consider Miguel Sano from back then. He signed for 3.15 MM. My model conclusion would suggest that the same talent would be available then on the domestic front for 1.92 MM. When Sano signed in 2009, selections were not assigned suggested values. However if you extrapolate backwards from this current era of assigned value, you get Sano being worth about a mid first round pick. Which is about what he was considered as at the time.
A comparison to now would be a player with the talent of Victor Victor Mesa. He is considered being valuable in the same range, but his expected signing bonus is for 3.5 MM. The cost per win during this last decade has more than doubled, suggesting that in a market without a bonus cap that Mesa should be looking for something in the neighborhood of 7 MM. This evidences how much the cap has altered the landscape and that the 61 cent to one dollar comparison has narrow quite a bit.
In today's domestic draft, the level of talent we see in the draft that compares to Mesa may be as high as Travis Swaggerty (a 10th pick) or low as Trevor Larnach (a 20th pick), they came out as 4.4 and 2.5 MM respectively. To expect Mesa to earn 3.5 MM, then we are expecting him to basically make what he would if he was in the draft. A one to one comparison.
If that comparison holds true that somehow there is not much cost difference between domestic and international signing bonuses, then we might well assume that 250k would get the Orioles something on the level of a 7th round domestic pick talent. Typically, that kind of prospect does not provide much return. The last Oriole to see himself drafted there and making it to the big show is Caleb Joseph who was drafted back in 2008. And, of course, the all time player the Orioles drafted in that round was Mike Flanagan in 1973.
All in all, it likely won't move the needle much, but it does help provide the Orioles with more opportunity to find a diamond in the rough. After all, Jonathan Schoop cost less than 250k.
Showing posts with label Brad Brach. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Brad Brach. Show all posts
12 December 2017
Trade the Pen: Rusty Trucks Do Not Need Shiny Rims
Let us get one thing quickly out of the way: the Orioles have a few interesting bullpen arms, but they no longer have an elite bullpen. That good, but not great, pen backs up a starting rotation that currently is filled with craters, whispers, and tissue paper. The club has announced they are looking for starting pitcher, two to be exact with one being left handed, and could not secure either Tyler Chatwood or Mike Fiers. Yes, if we take things at face value, Mike Fiers was expected to be half of the starting rotation overhaul. And, yes, it appears the solution to the fifth slot is internal. Somehow.
And that leads us to this: trade potentially extra weight in the bullpen for starting pitching elsewhere. That really just boils down to once and potentially still great Zach Britton and once and still potentially very good Brad Brach. Both can slide into a closer role or a set up job. Darren O'Day last year effectively pitched to his contract after being a bit subpar in 2016. With two years and 18 MM coming to him, it seems unlikely that he could bring back much. Mychal Givens is someone who would be highly desirable to other clubs, but the Orioles still are trying to compete somewhat and that means to me that he remains and takes over the closer position. Then again, Buck and Duquette are in their final contract years, so maybe they go for broke choosing Britton over Givens. In this post though, we will assume that the Orioles are acting somewhat rational.
The suitors for Britton and Brach would be as follows. The Cubs, Dodgers, and Rockies are known to have pinged the Orioles about Zach Britton. The Mets are known to have inquired on Brad Brach. The Cardinals are actively looking for late inning help. The Diamondbacks and Astros are also looking for suitable pairings in their respective pens. I think we can safely ignore the Nationals as a trading partner even though they are still looking for relief help. So, who can the Orioles pry from each club?
The Britton Market
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are said to be looking for another starting pitcher, which would make one think they would not have a player available in a trade. Though it may also suggest that the club is willing to deal out someone like Eddie Butler or Mike Montgomery. Both have shown promise at times and both are likely strong components of a 2018 bullpen that provide backup options in case they have trouble with a member of their starting rotation. That said, adding Zach Britton may be a cause worth going after. The team is often thought to be made of money, but often try to be rather prudent at times. Britton's salary, along with his uneven 2017, might give some pause. Brad Brach might be of interest, but the club would likely have to tack something on.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles has eight starting pitchers and a few in their pen capable of starting. The obvious arms to be dangled would be Scott Kazmir, Brandon McCarthy, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Kenta Maeda, and even Julio Urias who is not held as tightly as he was before the season. The Dodgers were one of the finalist last summer for Britton before the Orioles ghosted them and they turned their sites on Yu Darvish. They still have a need for relief arm and have comparable salary ballast to exchange. Pitchers like Kazmir and McCarthy have injury and physical concerns, so the Orioles might focus on Urias but then settle for Ryu. Maeda would be a pie in the sky option who has pitched well despite having some potential shoulder concerns when he initially signed.
Colorado Rockies
The Rockies have called to check in with the Orioles and have been aggressively contacting closer arms in the market. The two arms the Orioles would likely target are Antonio Senzatela and Jeff Hoffman, the pitcher who the Orioles tried to get from the Blue Jays when the Jays wanted Dan Duquette. Of those two, the rumblings are that the Rockies have considerable doubts about Hoffman, so that could present him as a potential get. The Rockies have the payroll space to acquire Britton's 12 MM salary, but would probably want the Orioles to buy down on it or to include someone else in the mix like Hunter Harvey or Tanner Scoot but more likely Cody Sedlock or Keegan Akin.
The Brach Market
New York Mets
The Mets seem to always be calling the Orioles about Brad Brach. The really like him, but do not exactly love him. So, the market is there, but the market may be somewhat limited in interest. The Orioles, at this point, are also known to be inquiring on Matt Harvey. Harvey, the once insanely promising starting pitcher, has fallen in the Mets doghouse on several occasions for reasons often not related to how dreadful he has been the past couple years. The Mets value him, but seem to prefer to be in someone else's clubhouse while also getting something of similar value without the headaches. A Brach for Harvey deal straight up seems to be a decent match between the two, but I imagine that the Mets also really like Givens and would try to pry him from the team.
St. Louis Cardinals
The front office seems to think that Oh's troubles last year spelled post season issues for the club, so they have been active in the closer market. Looking at their starting pitching situation, they are not really filled with options. The only one I see that could fit is the 23 year old Jack Flaherty, but I think that is a stretch. He is a hard throwing righthander who has glided through the minors. His ceiling is limited, but that is a good sixth or seventh option to have. I figured you would need to see a Brach plus a prospect trade to pry him from the Cardinals and they would have to really want Brach, which is something I have not heard at all.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks are also looking to create an intimidating bullpen and have some cost concerns, so a pitcher like Brach fits right into their wheelhouse. That said, there are not any easy matches here for the Orioles needs. One interesting name would be Shelby Miller. He had Tommy John surgery last May, but has experienced an accelerated rehabilitation and is already throwing well off flat ground. It might be difficult for him to make opening day, but he may be an option for May. Miller will make about the same as Brach in arbitration this year and has one more team controlled year for 2019. This might make a lot of sense.
Houston Astros
Last summer, after a great deal of hemming and hawing over whether Zach Britton was really worth his deal, the Astros were in on him and were waiting for the deal to be finalized. But, it was not. In the aftermath, the portion of the front office that was against the move felt pretty vindicated yet they still recognize that the pen was a weakness that needs to be addressed. Without copious amounts of money at their disposal, Brad Brach may look like a good match for them. A piece supposedly in the deal was Francis Martes, who is a decent prospect who lost a bit of luster last season. I could see a potential one for one deal on this or the Orioles would have to hand over an additional low minors lottery ticket.
What Happens?
I have no idea. However, I think you could see a number of ways the Orioles could deplete their bullpen while securing starting pitching. Doing so would likely decrease their payroll by an additional 10 MM or so, perhaps opening up space to sign one more starting pitcher or to find a few veteran arms in the pen.
Rolling the dice, let us say the Orioles were able to deal Zach Britton and maybe some international bonus pool money to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Julio Urias. People will be shocked that Urias, who was recently a highly touted pitching prospect, would be gotten for only one year of Zach Britton. However, the Dodgers figured Urias was not a major piece moving forward and that Britton would bring them closer to the World Series. The Orioles then press their luck with Urias and hopes he is more than the frustrating late inning relievers some scouts are beginning to think he is. He also ticks the box for a left hander. On the Brach market, the Orioles trade contract for contract and acquire Matt Harvey from the Mets for a one year rental. They see a lot to like, such as the low cost for a potentially useful starter, and figure he is worth the performance and injury concern for just one year.
Now, the club has a bullpen problem having dealt out two of their four best relievers. However, they have an additional 12 MM from dealing Britton and a lot more from not having to sign a free agent starter. What do they do? To replace Brach, they sign Brandon Kinstler to a three year, 21 MM deal. To replace Britton, they sign Tony Watson for two years and 15 MM. At that point, they probably have enough money to sign someone like Andrew Cashner or Jaime Garcia.
OK, Duquette. Do that. Convert your potentially elite bullpen into a potentially decent starting rotation with some dependable arms.
And that leads us to this: trade potentially extra weight in the bullpen for starting pitching elsewhere. That really just boils down to once and potentially still great Zach Britton and once and still potentially very good Brad Brach. Both can slide into a closer role or a set up job. Darren O'Day last year effectively pitched to his contract after being a bit subpar in 2016. With two years and 18 MM coming to him, it seems unlikely that he could bring back much. Mychal Givens is someone who would be highly desirable to other clubs, but the Orioles still are trying to compete somewhat and that means to me that he remains and takes over the closer position. Then again, Buck and Duquette are in their final contract years, so maybe they go for broke choosing Britton over Givens. In this post though, we will assume that the Orioles are acting somewhat rational.
The suitors for Britton and Brach would be as follows. The Cubs, Dodgers, and Rockies are known to have pinged the Orioles about Zach Britton. The Mets are known to have inquired on Brad Brach. The Cardinals are actively looking for late inning help. The Diamondbacks and Astros are also looking for suitable pairings in their respective pens. I think we can safely ignore the Nationals as a trading partner even though they are still looking for relief help. So, who can the Orioles pry from each club?
The Britton Market
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are said to be looking for another starting pitcher, which would make one think they would not have a player available in a trade. Though it may also suggest that the club is willing to deal out someone like Eddie Butler or Mike Montgomery. Both have shown promise at times and both are likely strong components of a 2018 bullpen that provide backup options in case they have trouble with a member of their starting rotation. That said, adding Zach Britton may be a cause worth going after. The team is often thought to be made of money, but often try to be rather prudent at times. Britton's salary, along with his uneven 2017, might give some pause. Brad Brach might be of interest, but the club would likely have to tack something on.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles has eight starting pitchers and a few in their pen capable of starting. The obvious arms to be dangled would be Scott Kazmir, Brandon McCarthy, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Kenta Maeda, and even Julio Urias who is not held as tightly as he was before the season. The Dodgers were one of the finalist last summer for Britton before the Orioles ghosted them and they turned their sites on Yu Darvish. They still have a need for relief arm and have comparable salary ballast to exchange. Pitchers like Kazmir and McCarthy have injury and physical concerns, so the Orioles might focus on Urias but then settle for Ryu. Maeda would be a pie in the sky option who has pitched well despite having some potential shoulder concerns when he initially signed.
Colorado Rockies
The Rockies have called to check in with the Orioles and have been aggressively contacting closer arms in the market. The two arms the Orioles would likely target are Antonio Senzatela and Jeff Hoffman, the pitcher who the Orioles tried to get from the Blue Jays when the Jays wanted Dan Duquette. Of those two, the rumblings are that the Rockies have considerable doubts about Hoffman, so that could present him as a potential get. The Rockies have the payroll space to acquire Britton's 12 MM salary, but would probably want the Orioles to buy down on it or to include someone else in the mix like Hunter Harvey or Tanner Scoot but more likely Cody Sedlock or Keegan Akin.
The Brach Market
New York Mets
The Mets seem to always be calling the Orioles about Brad Brach. The really like him, but do not exactly love him. So, the market is there, but the market may be somewhat limited in interest. The Orioles, at this point, are also known to be inquiring on Matt Harvey. Harvey, the once insanely promising starting pitcher, has fallen in the Mets doghouse on several occasions for reasons often not related to how dreadful he has been the past couple years. The Mets value him, but seem to prefer to be in someone else's clubhouse while also getting something of similar value without the headaches. A Brach for Harvey deal straight up seems to be a decent match between the two, but I imagine that the Mets also really like Givens and would try to pry him from the team.
St. Louis Cardinals
The front office seems to think that Oh's troubles last year spelled post season issues for the club, so they have been active in the closer market. Looking at their starting pitching situation, they are not really filled with options. The only one I see that could fit is the 23 year old Jack Flaherty, but I think that is a stretch. He is a hard throwing righthander who has glided through the minors. His ceiling is limited, but that is a good sixth or seventh option to have. I figured you would need to see a Brach plus a prospect trade to pry him from the Cardinals and they would have to really want Brach, which is something I have not heard at all.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks are also looking to create an intimidating bullpen and have some cost concerns, so a pitcher like Brach fits right into their wheelhouse. That said, there are not any easy matches here for the Orioles needs. One interesting name would be Shelby Miller. He had Tommy John surgery last May, but has experienced an accelerated rehabilitation and is already throwing well off flat ground. It might be difficult for him to make opening day, but he may be an option for May. Miller will make about the same as Brach in arbitration this year and has one more team controlled year for 2019. This might make a lot of sense.
Houston Astros
Last summer, after a great deal of hemming and hawing over whether Zach Britton was really worth his deal, the Astros were in on him and were waiting for the deal to be finalized. But, it was not. In the aftermath, the portion of the front office that was against the move felt pretty vindicated yet they still recognize that the pen was a weakness that needs to be addressed. Without copious amounts of money at their disposal, Brad Brach may look like a good match for them. A piece supposedly in the deal was Francis Martes, who is a decent prospect who lost a bit of luster last season. I could see a potential one for one deal on this or the Orioles would have to hand over an additional low minors lottery ticket.
What Happens?
I have no idea. However, I think you could see a number of ways the Orioles could deplete their bullpen while securing starting pitching. Doing so would likely decrease their payroll by an additional 10 MM or so, perhaps opening up space to sign one more starting pitcher or to find a few veteran arms in the pen.
Rolling the dice, let us say the Orioles were able to deal Zach Britton and maybe some international bonus pool money to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Julio Urias. People will be shocked that Urias, who was recently a highly touted pitching prospect, would be gotten for only one year of Zach Britton. However, the Dodgers figured Urias was not a major piece moving forward and that Britton would bring them closer to the World Series. The Orioles then press their luck with Urias and hopes he is more than the frustrating late inning relievers some scouts are beginning to think he is. He also ticks the box for a left hander. On the Brach market, the Orioles trade contract for contract and acquire Matt Harvey from the Mets for a one year rental. They see a lot to like, such as the low cost for a potentially useful starter, and figure he is worth the performance and injury concern for just one year.
Now, the club has a bullpen problem having dealt out two of their four best relievers. However, they have an additional 12 MM from dealing Britton and a lot more from not having to sign a free agent starter. What do they do? To replace Brach, they sign Brandon Kinstler to a three year, 21 MM deal. To replace Britton, they sign Tony Watson for two years and 15 MM. At that point, they probably have enough money to sign someone like Andrew Cashner or Jaime Garcia.
OK, Duquette. Do that. Convert your potentially elite bullpen into a potentially decent starting rotation with some dependable arms.
21 June 2017
Top 5 Orioles Trade Chips
Thanks to some home runs and good relief pitching, the Orioles pulled out a one-run win last night to get back to .500. Close wins are still wins, and it's too early to completely write off the O's.
Still, the 2017 season has gone south for the Orioles in a major way. If they were just losing a bunch of close games, that would be one thing. That's not the case, though, as both injuries and poor play across the board have resulted in the O's currently looking up at three teams in the American League East. Additionally, the Orioles now have a run differential of -56, which is second worst in the American League and fifth worst in all of baseball. The Orioles have some serious problems, and some of them are not fixable.
Any rational-minded O's fan knew this squad had a limited window to compete, and it very well may have slammed shut. We will find out soon whether the Orioles can stay within striking distance of the playoff race, and they'll come to a crossroads on how to proceed with this group of players. It'll either be time to push major decisions on players like Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, and Zach Britton to the offseason, or to meet this organization's problems head-on and see what the Orioles can really acquire at the trade deadline by dangling some of their best players.
Let's note two things first. First, I do not expect the Orioles to trade Machado or Schoop this season. Maybe falling way out of the race would change that, but I'd still be stunned. I also do not think ownership will pony up the cash required to keep a superstar talent like Machado, but you could certainly argue they shouldn't do that anyway. There aren't many players like Machado out there, but there also aren't many mid- or small-market clubs who could pay an enormous amount of money to Machado while also paying a huge chunk of change (though less enormous than Machado) to Chris Davis and still be able to put the requisite pieces around them. Doing something like that would require a lot of young, cheap talent, which the Orioles don't have right now.
Second, you can't ignore the contract situations of Dan Duquette and Buck Showalter. Their deals both expire after 2018. Do you really want Duquette orchestrating a tear-down if he's not going to be here soon? And if you jettison Duquette, what about Showalter? An incoming general manager would probably want to pick his own manager, though the Orioles don't really work that way (Showalter was already in place as manager when Duquette was hired as executive vice president of baseball operations). Perhaps the Orioles would just promote from within anyway (obligatory Brady Anderson mention). Would Showalter be fine with that and does he still want to manage; or is he more interested in a front office role? These are all important questions, and I fully expect the Orioles to punt on them until the offseason.
If the Orioles were to be fully active in the trade market, though, how would their trade chips rank? Many of them don't look as good as they did before the season, but let's take a look at the top five:
1. Manny Machado
Jon's value approximation: $42M (based on 1.5 years, 8 projected WAR, $22M in salary)
Potential trade partner: Astros
Potential price: A lot
Potential deal: Machado for Alex Bregman, Francis Martes, Franklin Perez, Forrest Whitley, and Colin Moran
Machado isn't hitting up to his abilities (last night's two-homer, 4-4 game was a good sign, though), but there's no doubting his talent. He's an elite defensive third baseman, an above-average defender at shortstop if a team wants to use him there, and his offensive struggles will only last for so long. Machado would be a game-changer for any team looking for a significant upgrade for the rest of this season. That team could keep him through 2018, his last year of arbitration, or flip him in the offseason.
In all likelihood, the O's won't be able to keep Machado in Baltimore, and while dealing Machado would be difficult to stomach, it could also be a way to replenish a farm system in serious need of top-level talent. Players like Machado don't become available often, and the price to acquire him would and should be enormous.
2. Jonathan Schoop
Jon's value approximation: $36M (based on 2.5 years, 6 projected WAR, $20M in salary)
Potential trade partner: Unclear
Potential price: Top 25-50 pitcher and B-level hitter or 50-100 hitter and 50-100 pitcher
Britton probably would have gone here a few months ago, except he now has a forearm injury that's caused two trips to the disabled list this season. The Orioles and Britton have taken a more patient approach this time after an earlier setback, and he very well may be fine and look like the Britton of old when he is scheduled to return in a couple weeks. But that injury cloud matters, and maybe the O's couldn't get as much as they'd like.
Meanwhile, there's Schoop, who seems to have taken a much-needed step forward offensively. He's walking more than ever, chasing less often, and being much more selective. Because of Machado's struggles, Schoop has arguably been the team's best position player so far.
One the one hand, Schoop is 25 and a homegrown talent, and you'd like to keep those guys around (especially when they're showing promise). On the other hand, the Orioles, as if often the case, did not lock Schoop up to any kind of team-friendly extension. He has two arbitration-eligible years left, making him a free agent in 2020. He's going to get more expensive in 2018 and 2019, and there's no guarantee he sticks around beyond that.
On top of that, he may need to move off of second base soon. There's no doubting the strength of Schoop's arm, but his range may be becoming an issue. Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating both have him as a far below average defender this year, and there have been more than a handful of groundballs that have bounced off his glove or escaped his reach that a second baseman with average range would have gobbled up.
If the Orioles aren't going to explore an extension, then it's time to start thinking about what he could bring back in a trade.
3. Zach Britton
Jon's value approximation: $12M (based on 1.5 years, 4 projected WAR, $20M in salary)
Potential trade partner: Rangers
Potential price: An A-level (25-75) and B-level player
Potential deal: Britton for Yohander Mendez and Brett Martin
There is not much to add here. When healthy, Britton is simply one of the best relief pitchers in all of baseball. But that healthy part is key, and he will need to get through his current rehab assignment and come back and demonstrate that he is still that same dominant force. If he does that, teams will come calling.
4. Brad Brach
Jon's value approximation: $17M (based on 1.5 years, 3 projected WAR, $7M in salary)
Potential trade partner: Rangers
Potential price: A-level (50-100) and B-level hitter
Potential deal: Brach for Andy Ibanez and Brett Martin
Even though he's more affordable than Britton, Brach comes in below the lefty closer because he doesn't have the same ceiling. If you want the best, you want Britton. If you want someone who's still very good when he's not being overworked (and can fill in at closer some, if needed), then Brach is more than a worthy alternative.
Brach has rebounded nicely after a shaky couple of weeks, and he's showing that although he's probably not as good as last year (2.05 ERA, 2.92 FIP in 79 innings), he's still a very good late-game relief option (currently, 2.67 ERA, 3.32 FIP in 30 1/3 innings).
5. Mychal Givens
Jon's value approximation: $36M (based on 4.5 years, 7 projected WAR, $20M in salary)
Potential trade partner: Rangers
Potential price: A-level (50-100) and B-level hitter
Potential deal: Givens for Andy Ibanez and Brett Martin
Givens's inclusion in the top five completes the troika of relievers after Machado and Schoop. Like Brach, Givens is a solid but not amazing reliever, plus he has the benefit of being under team control for several more seasons. Unlike Brach, Givens does have platoon concerns that are at least worth mentioning. Because of his extra value, Givens could net a similar return to Brach or maybe even more depending on the team, but he's probably just a notch below him and doesn't have the same kind of upside. (Also, in case you can't tell, Jon thinks the Rangers will add a reliever or two.)
Players Who Should Go
Welington Castillo
Castillo is having a nice season for the O's at the plate (105 wRC+), and he hasn't been terrible in terms of pitch framing either (Baseball Prospectus has him at -1.6 with its framing runs metric). Still, with a $7 million player option (essentially an opt-out even though the Orioles would never offer an opt-out), Castillo can choose whether he becomes a free agent after the season. The Orioles also have Chance Sisco in Triple-A Norfolk waiting in the wings for catching work, and Caleb Joseph is a serviceable backup option. It wouldn't be the worst thing for Castillo to return, but the O's don't need him and should get what they can (maybe a B-level pitcher and C+ hitter).
Wade Miley
Like Castillo, Miley has a 2018 option as well; his, though, is a team option for $12 million (with a $500K buyout). Miley has been the team's second-best starter, though that's no great feat considering Chris Tillman, Kevin Gausman, and Ubaldo Jimenez have ERAs over 6. Miley isn't the worst pitching option to have around, even for $12 million, but if the O's can move him for a B-level pitcher and C+ level hitter, they should take that offer.
Seth Smith
Hyun Soo Kim
Let's just lump these two together. They're both left-handed platoon bats in the corner outfield, and they're both scheduled to be free agents after the year. Together, they could bring back a couple of B-level pitchers and C+ level hitters.
Bad Timing Or Little Value
Adam Jones
Do you really want to see the Orioles trade Jones? I'm not sure that I do. However, that might not matter anyway; Jones can reject any deal because he has 10-and-5 rights (given to major leaguers with 10 years of service time who have played the last five consecutive years with the same team).
Jones is also not the same player. At this stage in his career, he's basically in the 90-100 wRC+ range with defensive abilities in center field that rate somewhere between average and below average. That's not awful for an up-the-middle position, but the final two years of his contract don't provide much of a bargain (the rest of $16 million this year and $17 million next season). Jones's contract extension was a great move for the team, but the surplus value from it has already been received. Now they're dealing with the rest of it, and it's not clear what the next step is.
Kevin Gausman
Arguably no player has had a more underwhelming couple of months than Gausman. Instead of helping to anchor the staff with Dylan Bundy, Gausman has been dreadful. Following a promising season - his first with a full workload (30 starts) - he has a 6.60 ERA and 5.50 FIP in 75 innings. His strikeouts are down, and his walks and home runs allowed are up. Gausman just can't shake his pre-Cubs Jake Arrieta impression, and some fans are tired of it and ready to cut bait.
What type of return could he fetch? Perhaps a 50-100 hitter and 50-100 pitcher, though, in the moment, that seems like a lot. Maybe that works for you. Gausman seems too talented to be this terrible, but he wouldn't be the first player to meet that qualification. There's no guarantee he'll improve, but he still seems like a hold.
Chris Tillman
Ubaldo Jimenez
Let's get this over with quickly. Tillman has been horrible, doesn't seem fully recovered from a shoulder injury that forced him to miss the start of the season, and is a free agent after this season. Unless he goes on some sort of miraculous run, he has next to no trade value.
Even though Jimenez had a nice start in his undeserved return to the O's rotation, he also barely has any trade value. The O's have been trying to unload his contract for years, and maybe the only reason why they'd be able to do so now is because his deal expires after the year. On any team with even the bare minimum of pitching depth, Jimenez would have been designated for assignment long ago. But, remember, this is Birdland.
Jon Shepherd contributed values and potential landing spots to this article.
Still, the 2017 season has gone south for the Orioles in a major way. If they were just losing a bunch of close games, that would be one thing. That's not the case, though, as both injuries and poor play across the board have resulted in the O's currently looking up at three teams in the American League East. Additionally, the Orioles now have a run differential of -56, which is second worst in the American League and fifth worst in all of baseball. The Orioles have some serious problems, and some of them are not fixable.
Any rational-minded O's fan knew this squad had a limited window to compete, and it very well may have slammed shut. We will find out soon whether the Orioles can stay within striking distance of the playoff race, and they'll come to a crossroads on how to proceed with this group of players. It'll either be time to push major decisions on players like Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, and Zach Britton to the offseason, or to meet this organization's problems head-on and see what the Orioles can really acquire at the trade deadline by dangling some of their best players.
Let's note two things first. First, I do not expect the Orioles to trade Machado or Schoop this season. Maybe falling way out of the race would change that, but I'd still be stunned. I also do not think ownership will pony up the cash required to keep a superstar talent like Machado, but you could certainly argue they shouldn't do that anyway. There aren't many players like Machado out there, but there also aren't many mid- or small-market clubs who could pay an enormous amount of money to Machado while also paying a huge chunk of change (though less enormous than Machado) to Chris Davis and still be able to put the requisite pieces around them. Doing something like that would require a lot of young, cheap talent, which the Orioles don't have right now.
Second, you can't ignore the contract situations of Dan Duquette and Buck Showalter. Their deals both expire after 2018. Do you really want Duquette orchestrating a tear-down if he's not going to be here soon? And if you jettison Duquette, what about Showalter? An incoming general manager would probably want to pick his own manager, though the Orioles don't really work that way (Showalter was already in place as manager when Duquette was hired as executive vice president of baseball operations). Perhaps the Orioles would just promote from within anyway (obligatory Brady Anderson mention). Would Showalter be fine with that and does he still want to manage; or is he more interested in a front office role? These are all important questions, and I fully expect the Orioles to punt on them until the offseason.
If the Orioles were to be fully active in the trade market, though, how would their trade chips rank? Many of them don't look as good as they did before the season, but let's take a look at the top five:
1. Manny Machado
Jon's value approximation: $42M (based on 1.5 years, 8 projected WAR, $22M in salary)
Potential trade partner: Astros
Potential price: A lot
Potential deal: Machado for Alex Bregman, Francis Martes, Franklin Perez, Forrest Whitley, and Colin Moran
Machado isn't hitting up to his abilities (last night's two-homer, 4-4 game was a good sign, though), but there's no doubting his talent. He's an elite defensive third baseman, an above-average defender at shortstop if a team wants to use him there, and his offensive struggles will only last for so long. Machado would be a game-changer for any team looking for a significant upgrade for the rest of this season. That team could keep him through 2018, his last year of arbitration, or flip him in the offseason.
In all likelihood, the O's won't be able to keep Machado in Baltimore, and while dealing Machado would be difficult to stomach, it could also be a way to replenish a farm system in serious need of top-level talent. Players like Machado don't become available often, and the price to acquire him would and should be enormous.
2. Jonathan Schoop
Jon's value approximation: $36M (based on 2.5 years, 6 projected WAR, $20M in salary)
Potential trade partner: Unclear
Potential price: Top 25-50 pitcher and B-level hitter or 50-100 hitter and 50-100 pitcher
Britton probably would have gone here a few months ago, except he now has a forearm injury that's caused two trips to the disabled list this season. The Orioles and Britton have taken a more patient approach this time after an earlier setback, and he very well may be fine and look like the Britton of old when he is scheduled to return in a couple weeks. But that injury cloud matters, and maybe the O's couldn't get as much as they'd like.
Meanwhile, there's Schoop, who seems to have taken a much-needed step forward offensively. He's walking more than ever, chasing less often, and being much more selective. Because of Machado's struggles, Schoop has arguably been the team's best position player so far.
One the one hand, Schoop is 25 and a homegrown talent, and you'd like to keep those guys around (especially when they're showing promise). On the other hand, the Orioles, as if often the case, did not lock Schoop up to any kind of team-friendly extension. He has two arbitration-eligible years left, making him a free agent in 2020. He's going to get more expensive in 2018 and 2019, and there's no guarantee he sticks around beyond that.
On top of that, he may need to move off of second base soon. There's no doubting the strength of Schoop's arm, but his range may be becoming an issue. Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating both have him as a far below average defender this year, and there have been more than a handful of groundballs that have bounced off his glove or escaped his reach that a second baseman with average range would have gobbled up.
If the Orioles aren't going to explore an extension, then it's time to start thinking about what he could bring back in a trade.
3. Zach Britton
Jon's value approximation: $12M (based on 1.5 years, 4 projected WAR, $20M in salary)
Potential trade partner: Rangers
Potential price: An A-level (25-75) and B-level player
Potential deal: Britton for Yohander Mendez and Brett Martin
There is not much to add here. When healthy, Britton is simply one of the best relief pitchers in all of baseball. But that healthy part is key, and he will need to get through his current rehab assignment and come back and demonstrate that he is still that same dominant force. If he does that, teams will come calling.
4. Brad Brach
Jon's value approximation: $17M (based on 1.5 years, 3 projected WAR, $7M in salary)
Potential trade partner: Rangers
Potential price: A-level (50-100) and B-level hitter
Potential deal: Brach for Andy Ibanez and Brett Martin
Even though he's more affordable than Britton, Brach comes in below the lefty closer because he doesn't have the same ceiling. If you want the best, you want Britton. If you want someone who's still very good when he's not being overworked (and can fill in at closer some, if needed), then Brach is more than a worthy alternative.
Brach has rebounded nicely after a shaky couple of weeks, and he's showing that although he's probably not as good as last year (2.05 ERA, 2.92 FIP in 79 innings), he's still a very good late-game relief option (currently, 2.67 ERA, 3.32 FIP in 30 1/3 innings).
5. Mychal Givens
Jon's value approximation: $36M (based on 4.5 years, 7 projected WAR, $20M in salary)
Potential trade partner: Rangers
Potential price: A-level (50-100) and B-level hitter
Potential deal: Givens for Andy Ibanez and Brett Martin
Givens's inclusion in the top five completes the troika of relievers after Machado and Schoop. Like Brach, Givens is a solid but not amazing reliever, plus he has the benefit of being under team control for several more seasons. Unlike Brach, Givens does have platoon concerns that are at least worth mentioning. Because of his extra value, Givens could net a similar return to Brach or maybe even more depending on the team, but he's probably just a notch below him and doesn't have the same kind of upside. (Also, in case you can't tell, Jon thinks the Rangers will add a reliever or two.)
Players Who Should Go
Welington Castillo
Castillo is having a nice season for the O's at the plate (105 wRC+), and he hasn't been terrible in terms of pitch framing either (Baseball Prospectus has him at -1.6 with its framing runs metric). Still, with a $7 million player option (essentially an opt-out even though the Orioles would never offer an opt-out), Castillo can choose whether he becomes a free agent after the season. The Orioles also have Chance Sisco in Triple-A Norfolk waiting in the wings for catching work, and Caleb Joseph is a serviceable backup option. It wouldn't be the worst thing for Castillo to return, but the O's don't need him and should get what they can (maybe a B-level pitcher and C+ hitter).
Wade Miley
Like Castillo, Miley has a 2018 option as well; his, though, is a team option for $12 million (with a $500K buyout). Miley has been the team's second-best starter, though that's no great feat considering Chris Tillman, Kevin Gausman, and Ubaldo Jimenez have ERAs over 6. Miley isn't the worst pitching option to have around, even for $12 million, but if the O's can move him for a B-level pitcher and C+ level hitter, they should take that offer.
Seth Smith
Hyun Soo Kim
Let's just lump these two together. They're both left-handed platoon bats in the corner outfield, and they're both scheduled to be free agents after the year. Together, they could bring back a couple of B-level pitchers and C+ level hitters.
Bad Timing Or Little Value
Adam Jones
Do you really want to see the Orioles trade Jones? I'm not sure that I do. However, that might not matter anyway; Jones can reject any deal because he has 10-and-5 rights (given to major leaguers with 10 years of service time who have played the last five consecutive years with the same team).
Jones is also not the same player. At this stage in his career, he's basically in the 90-100 wRC+ range with defensive abilities in center field that rate somewhere between average and below average. That's not awful for an up-the-middle position, but the final two years of his contract don't provide much of a bargain (the rest of $16 million this year and $17 million next season). Jones's contract extension was a great move for the team, but the surplus value from it has already been received. Now they're dealing with the rest of it, and it's not clear what the next step is.
Kevin Gausman
Arguably no player has had a more underwhelming couple of months than Gausman. Instead of helping to anchor the staff with Dylan Bundy, Gausman has been dreadful. Following a promising season - his first with a full workload (30 starts) - he has a 6.60 ERA and 5.50 FIP in 75 innings. His strikeouts are down, and his walks and home runs allowed are up. Gausman just can't shake his pre-Cubs Jake Arrieta impression, and some fans are tired of it and ready to cut bait.
What type of return could he fetch? Perhaps a 50-100 hitter and 50-100 pitcher, though, in the moment, that seems like a lot. Maybe that works for you. Gausman seems too talented to be this terrible, but he wouldn't be the first player to meet that qualification. There's no guarantee he'll improve, but he still seems like a hold.
Chris Tillman
Ubaldo Jimenez
Let's get this over with quickly. Tillman has been horrible, doesn't seem fully recovered from a shoulder injury that forced him to miss the start of the season, and is a free agent after this season. Unless he goes on some sort of miraculous run, he has next to no trade value.
Even though Jimenez had a nice start in his undeserved return to the O's rotation, he also barely has any trade value. The O's have been trying to unload his contract for years, and maybe the only reason why they'd be able to do so now is because his deal expires after the year. On any team with even the bare minimum of pitching depth, Jimenez would have been designated for assignment long ago. But, remember, this is Birdland.
Jon Shepherd contributed values and potential landing spots to this article.
25 April 2017
Is Brad Brach's Elevated Fastball Taking Him To New Heights?
If you’re a regular follower of the Orioles and hear the name Devin Jones, you’re likely to think of the player who was shipped to the Padres to acquire Brad Brach. Many minor baseball trades are made throughout the year that pass by and are never really pondered again. Unfortunately for Jones, the Brach-Jones swap is not one of them, and it’s enough to make you feel a little sorry for him. It’s not his fault that Brach has seemingly transformed into a dominant, late-inning relief force.
And that's sure what Brach appears to be right now. He isn’t an overnight success; he didn’t make his Orioles’ debut in 2014 and immediately wreak havoc. Instead, he’s shown improvement each year. That’s often what fans think of when a prospect or young-ish player develops: slow and linear growth. It often doesn't work out that way, but for Brach, it basically has (at least since coming to Baltimore).
He made his debut with the Padres in 2011 and pitched seven innings. Here are his innings pitched and FanGraph's WAR totals for the seasons since:
2012: 66.2 IP, -0.5 WAR
2013: 31.0 IP, -0.1 WAR
2014: 62.1 IP, 0.2 WAR (first year with Orioles)
2015: 79.1 IP, 0.9 WAR
2016: 79.0 IP, 1.6 WAR
2017: 10.0 IP, 0.5 WAR (so far)
Since joining the Orioles, Brach has been perfecting his repertoire and finding out what works. In 2014, he had an ERA of 3.18. Then it was 2.72 the year after, 2.05 in 2016, and right now it’s zero. It won’t stay at zero (shocking, I know), but Brach is off to a tremendous start to keep his streak of increased production going. His fielding independent stats back that up as well: Brach’s FIP was 3.90 in 2014, falling to 3.47, then 2.92, and now the current 1.52. Again, it won’t stay that low, but steadily increasing in strikeouts per nine innings (currently at 11.70) while cutting down on walks per nine from about 3.5-4 to around 3 is a great sign.
Through the 2015 season, much of Brach’s improvement was due to his nasty changeup/splitter (let's just call it a changeup, since that's what Brooks Baseball does). Brach essentially throws three pitches: a four-seam fastball, a slider, and a changeup. After throwing the changeup over a quarter of the time in 2015, though, he surprisingly decided to throw less of them. In its place, he now throws more four-seamers and sliders (and even fewer sinkers, which is now a rare offering for him).
It’s unknown exactly why Brach stopped leaning as much on the changeup. There’s a strong case that Brach should have been throwing his splitter even more; Jeff Sullivan made that exact observation last May over at FanGraphs. Yet, Brach started doing the opposite!
Why did he do that? Well, the growth of swing-and-miss results on his four-seamer and slider is easy to see. The changeup is still arguably his best pitch when he needs a whiff, but his other two offerings are not that far behind and he's been comfortable throwing them more:
Brach is currently generating whiffs on nearly 40% of swings with all three of his pitches. It's early in the season, of course, but that's still absurd. Looking closer, note the consistent increase with Brach's fastball. He's been getting more swings and misses with that pitch every season since he came to Baltimore.
So how's he doing it? Before this season, you could chalk a chunk of it up to a velocity increase. Brach's velocity jumped a few miles per hour after joining the Orioles, which he credits to a mechanical adjustment on the rubber that was suggested by former coaches Dave Wallace and Dom Chiti. Brach's average fastball velocity last season was nearly 96 mph; in 2013, he was throwing 93 mph. Even still, Brach's velocity is down this year compared to where it was last April, and yet the results are still there (and better).
At least two things have helped him to achieve this success with his fastball. First, he has been able to get more vertical movement on the pitch. And second, he's been throwing it higher in the zone:
Just look at the heatmap for Brach's four-seamer in 2015, 2016, and 2017. They make it even easier to notice what's happening. Brach isn't messing around, and he's looking to throw his fastball on the inner third and up if he can.
Perhaps it's just an early trend, at least to this degree. Or maybe, like Darren O'Day, the Tampa Bay Rays, and many others, he's learning the power of the high fastball and its ability to combat the growing number of upper-cut swings.
Let's get to some GIFs. Here's Brach in the season's opening series throwing a high fastball by Josh Donaldson:
Here's one from April 7, when Brach fanned the side against the Yankees. The first was a called strike on a fastball, and then next two were swings and misses by Aaron Judge and Pete Kozma:
A few games later in Toronto, Brach climbed the ladder and struck out Troy Tulowitzi on an elevated four-seamer:
Brach's BABIP isn't going to stay at .063. He's not going to keep stranding 100% of baserunners. But this version of him is even scarier than the one throwing filthy changeups all over the place (and he still has that pitch in his back pocket if he needs it; he just isn't needing it as much).
Remember when the Mets reportedly wanted Brach in exchange for Curtis Granderson? It's easy to see why they wanted Brach, and it looks even better now that the Orioles didn't pull the trigger.
And that's sure what Brach appears to be right now. He isn’t an overnight success; he didn’t make his Orioles’ debut in 2014 and immediately wreak havoc. Instead, he’s shown improvement each year. That’s often what fans think of when a prospect or young-ish player develops: slow and linear growth. It often doesn't work out that way, but for Brach, it basically has (at least since coming to Baltimore).
He made his debut with the Padres in 2011 and pitched seven innings. Here are his innings pitched and FanGraph's WAR totals for the seasons since:
2012: 66.2 IP, -0.5 WAR
2013: 31.0 IP, -0.1 WAR
2014: 62.1 IP, 0.2 WAR (first year with Orioles)
2015: 79.1 IP, 0.9 WAR
2016: 79.0 IP, 1.6 WAR
2017: 10.0 IP, 0.5 WAR (so far)
Since joining the Orioles, Brach has been perfecting his repertoire and finding out what works. In 2014, he had an ERA of 3.18. Then it was 2.72 the year after, 2.05 in 2016, and right now it’s zero. It won’t stay at zero (shocking, I know), but Brach is off to a tremendous start to keep his streak of increased production going. His fielding independent stats back that up as well: Brach’s FIP was 3.90 in 2014, falling to 3.47, then 2.92, and now the current 1.52. Again, it won’t stay that low, but steadily increasing in strikeouts per nine innings (currently at 11.70) while cutting down on walks per nine from about 3.5-4 to around 3 is a great sign.
Through the 2015 season, much of Brach’s improvement was due to his nasty changeup/splitter (let's just call it a changeup, since that's what Brooks Baseball does). Brach essentially throws three pitches: a four-seam fastball, a slider, and a changeup. After throwing the changeup over a quarter of the time in 2015, though, he surprisingly decided to throw less of them. In its place, he now throws more four-seamers and sliders (and even fewer sinkers, which is now a rare offering for him).
 |
| Pitch usage data via Brooks Baseball |
Why did he do that? Well, the growth of swing-and-miss results on his four-seamer and slider is easy to see. The changeup is still arguably his best pitch when he needs a whiff, but his other two offerings are not that far behind and he's been comfortable throwing them more:
 |
| Whiffs per swing data via Brooks Baseball |
So how's he doing it? Before this season, you could chalk a chunk of it up to a velocity increase. Brach's velocity jumped a few miles per hour after joining the Orioles, which he credits to a mechanical adjustment on the rubber that was suggested by former coaches Dave Wallace and Dom Chiti. Brach's average fastball velocity last season was nearly 96 mph; in 2013, he was throwing 93 mph. Even still, Brach's velocity is down this year compared to where it was last April, and yet the results are still there (and better).
At least two things have helped him to achieve this success with his fastball. First, he has been able to get more vertical movement on the pitch. And second, he's been throwing it higher in the zone:
 |
| Vertical pitch location data via Brooks Baseball |
Perhaps it's just an early trend, at least to this degree. Or maybe, like Darren O'Day, the Tampa Bay Rays, and many others, he's learning the power of the high fastball and its ability to combat the growing number of upper-cut swings.
Let's get to some GIFs. Here's Brach in the season's opening series throwing a high fastball by Josh Donaldson:
Here's one from April 7, when Brach fanned the side against the Yankees. The first was a called strike on a fastball, and then next two were swings and misses by Aaron Judge and Pete Kozma:
A few games later in Toronto, Brach climbed the ladder and struck out Troy Tulowitzi on an elevated four-seamer:
Brach's BABIP isn't going to stay at .063. He's not going to keep stranding 100% of baserunners. But this version of him is even scarier than the one throwing filthy changeups all over the place (and he still has that pitch in his back pocket if he needs it; he just isn't needing it as much).
Remember when the Mets reportedly wanted Brach in exchange for Curtis Granderson? It's easy to see why they wanted Brach, and it looks even better now that the Orioles didn't pull the trigger.
23 March 2017
Darren O'Day: Underappreciated Relief Weapon
There are at least a few things about the Orioles that should have you excited for the upcoming season. In no particular order: Manny Machado, healthy versions of Chris Davis and Adam Jones, Kevin Gausman, Dylan Bundy's first year as a full-time starter, a lineup that should hit plenty of dingers, Hyun Soo Kim's sophomore MLB season, and more. It's hard to top anything Machado does, but here's another big one: a bullpen that has a chance to be sensational.
Last year, the trio of Zach Britton, Brad Brach, and Mychal Givens was outstanding. They should again be a nasty group to deal with. Britton put the finishing touches on one of the very best relief seasons of all time. Brach started out on fire and made the all-star team, although he slumped a bit in the second half. And Givens showed how useful he can be, especially if his numbers improve against left-handed batters.
Overall, the bullpen finished first in the American League in ERA (3.40), t-second in strand rate (77.3%), sixth in groundball rate (46.3%), and first in win probability added, all the while finishing just 11th best in strikeouts per nine and 12th best in walks per nine.
One of the most interesting things about the bullpen's outstanding performance in 2016 is they accomplished what they did without a healthy and effective Darren O'Day (though Bundy gave them a nice boost for a while). After throwing at least 62 innings in the previous four seasons, O'Day only threw half that in 2016 as he battled two injuries.
O'Day went on the disabled list in early June because of a strained right hamstring, and he wasn't activated until late July. Then in mid-August, he again headed to the disabled list, this time due to a strained right rotator cuff. Apparently O'Day tried to pitch through the pain, which understandably did not help. When he returned about a month later, he pitched a few more times and started to resemble the O'Day fans had come to expect. He appeared in the O's now infamous wild card loss to the Blue Jays, recording five outs while facing just four batters (thanks to this enormous double play).
There's almost no chance Britton can duplicate his truly amazing season, and maybe Brach will take a step backward as well. But if O'Day is anything close to his 2012-2015 self, the Orioles will have something special on their hands. In his injury-plagued 2016, O'Day posted a 3.77 ERA and a 4.57 FIP. Yet from 2012-2015, O'Day's ERA dropped every year (2.28, 2.18, 1.70, 1.52), and his RA/9 nearly did as well (2.28, 2.32, 1.83, 1.79).
Because he doesn't always post great strikeout rates and isn't a groundball-inducing machine, O'Day doesn't typically put up wonderful fielding pitching independent numbers. That's a large reason why in his first four years in Baltimore, Baseball-Reference has him worth nearly 10 wins above replacement, and FanGraphs pegs him closer to five. If you want to see just how amazing O'Day was in that time span, just look at the following table from Baseball-Reference's indispensable Play Index:
| Rk | Player | ERA+ ▼ |
IP | From | To | ERA | FIP | OPS | OPS+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Craig Kimbrel | 239 | 250.2 | 2012 | 2015 | 1.58 | 1.80 | .462 | 33 |
| 2 | Koji Uehara | 227 | 215.0 | 2012 | 2015 | 1.84 | 2.34 | .514 | 38 |
| 3 | Darren O'Day | 214 | 263.0 | 2012 | 2015 | 1.92 | 3.08 | .580 | 59 |
| 4 | Aroldis Chapman | 206 | 255.2 | 2012 | 2015 | 1.90 | 1.74 | .486 | 39 |
| 5 | Greg Holland | 184 | 241.0 | 2012 | 2015 | 2.24 | 2.09 | .569 | 57 |
| 6 | Tony Watson | 166 | 277.2 | 2012 | 2015 | 2.24 | 3.05 | .573 | 64 |
| 7 | Kelvin Herrera | 164 | 282.1 | 2012 | 2015 | 2.52 | 3.09 | .619 | 70 |
| 8 | J.P. Howell | 164 | 205.1 | 2012 | 2015 | 2.24 | 3.55 | .610 | 76 |
| 9 | Jonathan Papelbon | 163 | 261.1 | 2012 | 2015 | 2.38 | 3.03 | .599 | 69 |
| 10 | Joaquin Benoit | 161 | 257.2 | 2012 | 2015 | 2.45 | 3.36 | .586 | 63 |
| 11 | Brad Ziegler | 158 | 276.2 | 2012 | 2015 | 2.50 | 3.44 | .595 | 67 |
| 12 | Kenley Jansen | 157 | 259.1 | 2012 | 2015 | 2.33 | 2.10 | .536 | 55 |
| 13 | Huston Street | 155 | 217.1 | 2012 | 2015 | 2.32 | 3.51 | .585 | 69 |
| 14 | Cody Allen | 152 | 238.1 | 2012 | 2015 | 2.64 | 2.73 | .637 | 76 |
| 15 | Santiago Casilla | 150 | 229.2 | 2012 | 2015 | 2.39 | 3.67 | .618 | 80 |
Some of the very best relievers in baseball are on that list. The Yankees just gave Aroldis Chapman $86 million over five years. Kenley Jansen received a contract for $6 million less over that same time frame. O'Day isn't in their class in terms overpowering the opposition and just reaching back and throwing the ball by hitters. But he gets outs -- plenty of them -- when he's healthy. That matters.
Before last season, the Orioles rewarded O'Day with a four-year, $31 million contract. So they clearly value his work. But you still get the sense that he's undervalued -- that Beyond The Box Score article linked above didn't even mention O'Day -- and even a bullpen that already projects to be excellent can use another relief weapon.
You can't predict health, and at 34 years old, O'Day is the eldest member of the O's relief options. Still, during an Orioles' spring training filled with frequent updates on injuries to players like Chris Tillman, Britton, J.J. Hardy, Seth Smith, Michael Bourn, and others, O'Day has fortunately been spared. If O'Day is indeed able to get back to his dominant, freewheeling, elevated-fastball and frisbee-slider-tossing ways, opposing batters will be in even more trouble against the Orioles in late-game situations.
Photo via Keith Allison
07 October 2016
Who Were The Five Biggest Surprises For The Orioles In 2016?
For the most part, the Orioles did what you expected this past season. The lineup hit a ton of home runs. The starting rotation wasn't good, but it did enough to enable the Orioles to make the playoffs. And the bullpen was excellent. But every season has its share of surprises, and these were the five biggest ones for the 2016 season.
Mark Trumbo
The Orioles didn't bring Trumbo aboard to steal a bunch of bases or transform into a useful defensive outfielder. He was added because of his ability to hit the ball out of the ballpark. And he did that -- 47 times, to be exact. That was four more times than the next closest player (Nelson Cruz, of course). Trumbo continued the run of O's players leading the majors in home runs. The last time that didn't happen was in 2012, when Miguel Cabrera finished with 44 taters.
The Orioles essentially picked Trumbo up in a salary dump, and he rewarded them by matching his best offensive season in 2012 (123 wRC+ this year, and a 124 wRC+ in 2012). Not bad. He also excelled primarily versus right-handed pitching, which was particularly odd, but definitely welcome.
Hyun Soo Kim
We've been over this, but a quick recap: Buck Showalter didn't want Kim on the major league roster to start the year. The Orioles explored getting rid of him before the season even started. He was booed on opening day. Kim barely played in March and April. But whenever Kim played, he hit, forcing his way onto the lineup card. His .382 on-base percentage was the best among O's regulars by nearly 40 points. His 119 wRC+ was second best on the team behind Manny Machado and Trumbo.
His wins above replacement numbers (0.9 on FanGraphs and 0.6 on Baseball-Reference) don't look great, mostly held down by his ugly advanced defensive metrics in left field. I wouldn't try to tell you that Kim is a good outfielder, but I don't think he's 13 runs below average (according to Defensive Runs Saved data). Even still, Kim is under contract for one more year at around $4 million, and that deal is easily one of the best Dan Duquette has ever made.
Brad Brach
Did you see Brach's season coming? I didn't. There were signs that Brach was going to be good; his 2015 was certainly more than many fans anticipated. And yet, he took another step forward this season. After posting a 2.72 ERA and 3.47 FIP in 2015, Brach improved with a 2.05 ERA and 2.92 FIP this year. He saw a slight uptick in strikeouts while also cutting his walks by about 1.5 per nine innings.
Did Brach wear down in the second half? Maybe. A .211 BABIP in the first half of the season, followed by a .346, might do a better job of explaining some of his second-half struggles, especially since his strikeout and walk numbers were about the same. Still, Brach stepped up in a major way while Darren O'Day missed a chunk of the year battling injuries, and he even made the all-star team. It's hard to ask for much more than that from someone who was acquired for then-minor leaguer Devin Jones.
Dylan Bundy
Any rational O's fan only wanted to see one thing from Bundy in 2016: him escape the season without injury. But not only did Bundy do that, but he started 14 games in the second half and finished the year with almost 110 innings pitched. Before the year, Showalter said the O's wanted to get between 60-75 innings out of Bundy. Mission accomplished, and then some.
As a starter, Bundy posted a 4.52 ERA and sometimes struggled to get through the fifth inning. Nothing about that is surprising, though, and those are actually encouraging numbers for someone many weren't sure would ever throw a meaningful pitch in the majors again. You can't be too sure how long Bundy is ever going to stay healthy, but for now he's fine, and it's at least moderately exciting that he's exploring adding the cutter back to his pitch arsenal.
Caleb Joseph
There are a few other players you could easily include here, but I went with Joseph, who was maybe the O's worst player even when factoring in his limited playing time. Joseph finished the year with a fWAR of -0.9, edging out Joey Rickard (-0.7) for worst on the team. He didn't hit at all, ending the year with a wRC+ of 6 and without a driving in a run in 141 plate appearances.
I don't think anyone expected Joseph to be any kind of force with the bat, and anything around his earlier numbers from 2014 or 2015 would certainly have been accepted. Now, with the strong possibility of Matt Wieters leaving via free agency, Joseph, even with his framing skills and strong arm, is no longer the sure thing to receive a majority of the work behind the plate. The O's could bite the bullet and bring Wieters back on a multi-year deal, or they could look outside the organization for another catcher (Jon has been talking about the possible fit of Jason Castro for much of the season). But the sunny outlook for Joseph is mostly gone.
Honorable mentions: Joey Rickard, Donnie Hart, Trey Mancini, Michael Bourn
Mark Trumbo
The Orioles didn't bring Trumbo aboard to steal a bunch of bases or transform into a useful defensive outfielder. He was added because of his ability to hit the ball out of the ballpark. And he did that -- 47 times, to be exact. That was four more times than the next closest player (Nelson Cruz, of course). Trumbo continued the run of O's players leading the majors in home runs. The last time that didn't happen was in 2012, when Miguel Cabrera finished with 44 taters.
The Orioles essentially picked Trumbo up in a salary dump, and he rewarded them by matching his best offensive season in 2012 (123 wRC+ this year, and a 124 wRC+ in 2012). Not bad. He also excelled primarily versus right-handed pitching, which was particularly odd, but definitely welcome.
Hyun Soo Kim
We've been over this, but a quick recap: Buck Showalter didn't want Kim on the major league roster to start the year. The Orioles explored getting rid of him before the season even started. He was booed on opening day. Kim barely played in March and April. But whenever Kim played, he hit, forcing his way onto the lineup card. His .382 on-base percentage was the best among O's regulars by nearly 40 points. His 119 wRC+ was second best on the team behind Manny Machado and Trumbo.
His wins above replacement numbers (0.9 on FanGraphs and 0.6 on Baseball-Reference) don't look great, mostly held down by his ugly advanced defensive metrics in left field. I wouldn't try to tell you that Kim is a good outfielder, but I don't think he's 13 runs below average (according to Defensive Runs Saved data). Even still, Kim is under contract for one more year at around $4 million, and that deal is easily one of the best Dan Duquette has ever made.
Brad Brach
Did you see Brach's season coming? I didn't. There were signs that Brach was going to be good; his 2015 was certainly more than many fans anticipated. And yet, he took another step forward this season. After posting a 2.72 ERA and 3.47 FIP in 2015, Brach improved with a 2.05 ERA and 2.92 FIP this year. He saw a slight uptick in strikeouts while also cutting his walks by about 1.5 per nine innings.
Did Brach wear down in the second half? Maybe. A .211 BABIP in the first half of the season, followed by a .346, might do a better job of explaining some of his second-half struggles, especially since his strikeout and walk numbers were about the same. Still, Brach stepped up in a major way while Darren O'Day missed a chunk of the year battling injuries, and he even made the all-star team. It's hard to ask for much more than that from someone who was acquired for then-minor leaguer Devin Jones.
Dylan Bundy
Any rational O's fan only wanted to see one thing from Bundy in 2016: him escape the season without injury. But not only did Bundy do that, but he started 14 games in the second half and finished the year with almost 110 innings pitched. Before the year, Showalter said the O's wanted to get between 60-75 innings out of Bundy. Mission accomplished, and then some.
As a starter, Bundy posted a 4.52 ERA and sometimes struggled to get through the fifth inning. Nothing about that is surprising, though, and those are actually encouraging numbers for someone many weren't sure would ever throw a meaningful pitch in the majors again. You can't be too sure how long Bundy is ever going to stay healthy, but for now he's fine, and it's at least moderately exciting that he's exploring adding the cutter back to his pitch arsenal.
Caleb Joseph
There are a few other players you could easily include here, but I went with Joseph, who was maybe the O's worst player even when factoring in his limited playing time. Joseph finished the year with a fWAR of -0.9, edging out Joey Rickard (-0.7) for worst on the team. He didn't hit at all, ending the year with a wRC+ of 6 and without a driving in a run in 141 plate appearances.
I don't think anyone expected Joseph to be any kind of force with the bat, and anything around his earlier numbers from 2014 or 2015 would certainly have been accepted. Now, with the strong possibility of Matt Wieters leaving via free agency, Joseph, even with his framing skills and strong arm, is no longer the sure thing to receive a majority of the work behind the plate. The O's could bite the bullet and bring Wieters back on a multi-year deal, or they could look outside the organization for another catcher (Jon has been talking about the possible fit of Jason Castro for much of the season). But the sunny outlook for Joseph is mostly gone.
Honorable mentions: Joey Rickard, Donnie Hart, Trey Mancini, Michael Bourn
04 May 2016
Why Brad Brach Might Be Even Better
Heading into the 2016 season, the Orioles projected to have a very strong bullpen. Any group of relievers will benefit from the presence of Zach Britton and Darren O'Day, sure, but the O's figured to have a nice mix of talented young players and veterans.
Things don't always go according to plan, but they have so far for the O's bullpen. Excluding Brian Matusz, who has yet to pitch three full innings, every reliever has an ERA of 3 or below. Every reliever not named T.J. McFarland (3.15) and Dylan Bundy (3.96) also has a FIP under 3. Britton, O'Day, and Mychal Givens have strikeout rates of at least 11.7 per nine innings, and Brad Brach has a K/9 of 9.4.
With a blend of short and long relievers at his disposal, Buck Showalter has done a masterful job of spreading around the work to make up for a starting rotation that rarely makes it through six innings. That doesn't mean every reliever has been used in the most favorable spot; obviously you can nitpick with some of the decisions in various situations. But that's nearly impossible to do for a bullpen that carries such a heavy burden and workload.
O'Day and Britton are almost always used in the eighth and ninth innings, respectively, which allows Showalter to deploy Brach and Givens to put out fires in the sixth and seventh innings. I've written a decent amount about Givens recently, but Brach merits more praise for what he's transformed into.
For MASNsports.com last season, I wrote about how Brach was talented enough to slide into O'Day's role, were he to leave in free agency. He didn't, of course, giving Showalter plenty of relief options to choose from this season.
Brach, who primarily throws four-seamers, splitters, and sliders, joined the Orioles in 2014 and immediately gained about 1.5 mph on his fastball (to 94.7). Last year it jumped to 95.3, and so far this year he's up to 95.5. He's also thrown his slider harder every season since, along with throwing many more splitters. As Ryan Romano wrote early last season, Brach has taken full advantage of the increased velocity and nasty horizontal movement of his splitter, as it's become a legitimate weapon. Opposing batters had a much more difficult time squaring up on Brach's splitter, and the same has held true early this season. He's also throwing the splitter even lower in the zone.
Another large reason for Brach's success is that he's not a liability against left-handed hitters. In his career, right-handed batters have a .297 wOBA against him, while lefties have a wOBA of .283. He gets more strikeouts against right-handers, but allows home runs about twice as often.
Looking at one year of data can be misleading, but after struggling a bit against lefties in 2014 (.334 wOBA), Brach excelled against them in 2015 (.238 wOBA) after adding more splitters to his repertoire. It's not surprising that he'd throw more splitters, as it generates more whiffs per swing by a wide margin.
Brach might not strike out 10 batters per nine innings again like he did last season, but if he keeps that number somewhere above nine, cuts down on his walks, and does a better job of keeping the ball in the ballpark, he'll be a more efficient and effective pitcher. And right now, that's exactly what he's doing.
15 April 2015
Microtrends: Brad Brach's Splitter
With a mere eight games of Baltimore baseball in the books, we can't make too many concrete observations about the 2015 team. But we can certainly try, and looking at some of the smaller fluctuations — even those among relief pitchers — can give us ideas as to how the season might go. For Brad Brach, the early going might portend better results as the season progresses.
On the surface, Brach has struggled thus far, allowing five earned runs in his 4.2 innings of work. A .563 BABIP will distort any pitcher's results, though, and the peripherals tell a wholly different story: Brach owns a sparkling 2.18 xFIP, mainly because he's punched out six of the 23 batters he's faced. Compared to last year, in which he put up a strikeout rate of 21.2%, that represents a significant improvement, and it's come from one pitch in particular.
A couple months ago, my colleague Matt Kremnitzer noted some changes Brach made in his first Baltimore campaign:
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But he hasn't replaced those heaters with sinkers — his rate of the latter hasn't budged from last year. Rather, he's increased his usage of his splitter:
.jpeg)
This has been something of a career-long trend for Brach: As he becomes more and more experienced, he leans more and more on his splitter. With a career SwStr% of 23.6% — well above the 15.5% baseline for the pitch — the pitch has always helped him rack up strikeouts, so throwing it more would certainly help with that.
It's fairly easy to see why Brach's splitter so befuddles batters. Its velocity has only increased:
.jpeg)
League-average splitter velocity usually sits at 84 MPH, so 86 makes a sizable difference — one that has undoubtedly assisted Brach in fanning so many hitters.
In addition, Brach's splitter moves differently from most of its contemporaries. In 2014, the average splitter broke 4.5 inches to the right (from the catcher's perspective), and rose 2.5 inches. By contrast, Brach's splitter, since debuting in 2011, has shifted 9.3 inches horizontally, and 0.8 inches vertically. Together with the aforementioned velocity, this unconventional movement makes the splitter a legitimate force, and Brach appears to have finally realized it.
Of course, Brach probably won't stay this good for the whole season. Based on the fact that he walked 11.8% of the batters he faced prior to 2015, I'd say the 4.4% BB% he's posted thus far will regress a bit. Nevertheless, if he continues to utilize his splendid splitter as much as he has, he may progress further as a reliever. After the departure of Ryan Webb and the (early) struggles of Kevin Gausman, the Orioles could use that.
Has the 2015 season just begun? Yes. Will any earnest observations made now look preemptive come October? Probably. But that won't stop us from scrutinizing the inner workings of baseball, and doing what we can to separate the signal from the noise. And in the case of Brad Brach, the former appears to have a hand in what has occurred, and what will occur.
On the surface, Brach has struggled thus far, allowing five earned runs in his 4.2 innings of work. A .563 BABIP will distort any pitcher's results, though, and the peripherals tell a wholly different story: Brach owns a sparkling 2.18 xFIP, mainly because he's punched out six of the 23 batters he's faced. Compared to last year, in which he put up a strikeout rate of 21.2%, that represents a significant improvement, and it's come from one pitch in particular.
A couple months ago, my colleague Matt Kremnitzer noted some changes Brach made in his first Baltimore campaign:
Before this season, Brach had thrown his four-seamer the most, about two-thirds of the time, followed by his slider and splitter. But he threw his sinker 15% of the time last season, which took a chunk out of his four-seam offerings.After relying heavily on a four-seam fastball for the first three years of his major-league tenure, Brach began to phase it out upon coming to the Orioles. So far in 2015, he's perpetuated that trend:
But he hasn't replaced those heaters with sinkers — his rate of the latter hasn't budged from last year. Rather, he's increased his usage of his splitter:
This has been something of a career-long trend for Brach: As he becomes more and more experienced, he leans more and more on his splitter. With a career SwStr% of 23.6% — well above the 15.5% baseline for the pitch — the pitch has always helped him rack up strikeouts, so throwing it more would certainly help with that.
It's fairly easy to see why Brach's splitter so befuddles batters. Its velocity has only increased:
League-average splitter velocity usually sits at 84 MPH, so 86 makes a sizable difference — one that has undoubtedly assisted Brach in fanning so many hitters.
In addition, Brach's splitter moves differently from most of its contemporaries. In 2014, the average splitter broke 4.5 inches to the right (from the catcher's perspective), and rose 2.5 inches. By contrast, Brach's splitter, since debuting in 2011, has shifted 9.3 inches horizontally, and 0.8 inches vertically. Together with the aforementioned velocity, this unconventional movement makes the splitter a legitimate force, and Brach appears to have finally realized it.
Of course, Brach probably won't stay this good for the whole season. Based on the fact that he walked 11.8% of the batters he faced prior to 2015, I'd say the 4.4% BB% he's posted thus far will regress a bit. Nevertheless, if he continues to utilize his splendid splitter as much as he has, he may progress further as a reliever. After the departure of Ryan Webb and the (early) struggles of Kevin Gausman, the Orioles could use that.
Has the 2015 season just begun? Yes. Will any earnest observations made now look preemptive come October? Probably. But that won't stop us from scrutinizing the inner workings of baseball, and doing what we can to separate the signal from the noise. And in the case of Brad Brach, the former appears to have a hand in what has occurred, and what will occur.
10 February 2015
What Do the Orioles Have in Brad Brach?
Relievers are important. They're not as important or as valuable as quality starting pitchers, but it's beneficial to have an effective bullpen. A skilled bullpen shortens games, which is particularly important for teams that don't have starters who last into the later innings. Teams lucky and/or talented enough to get to the postseason -- and that also feature a few excellent relievers -- get to reap the rewards of a sparse playoff schedule, enabling those relievers to pitch more often than normal. Orioles fans were more than familiar with the late-game feeling of impending doom during the American League Championship Series against the Royals when Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis, and Greg Holland seemingly pitched every inning.
So it's nice to have a collection of good relievers. That's far from groundbreaking. But even though it's easier to find a decent reliever than starter, assembling a good bullpen (let alone a cheap one) isn't a simple task.
The O's are bringing back every important reliever from the beginning of last season. And yes, of course that does not include midseason acquisition Andrew Miller, who was one of the best relievers in baseball last season and signed a four-year, $36 million contract with the Yankees. But Zach Britton is back. So is Darren O'Day, Tommy Hunter, Brian Matusz, Ryan Webb, and T.J. McFarland. The Orioles will look to Wesley Wright to hopefully fill at least one of Miller's shoes, while Rule 5 selections Jason Garcia and Logan Verrett could be in the mix for some relief work.
But there's a name missing from that list above, and since you presumably read the title of the post, you know it's Brad Brach. Brach turns 29 in April, and he's under team control through 2018. The O's acquired him after the 2013 season for the low price of minor league pitcher Devin Jones. The Padres had just designated Brach for assignment, and the O's were happy to bring him to Baltimore.
Despite not being called up from Norfolk until May, being optioned on May 6 and again on June 9, and not really carving out a regular role until mid-June, Brach threw the third-most innings in relief for the O's last season behind Britton and O'Day. Brach quickly gained the trust of Buck Showalter, leapfrogging at least Webb. Brach made both the ALDS and ALCS rosters. Webb didn't make either.
As Ryan Pollack of Camden Chat pointed out in September, Brach was trusted in more higher-leverage situations as the season went along. And Brach wasn't unbelievable like Miller, but he was good and kept getting results.
In his 62.1 innings last season, Brach had a few things working for him, First, he was fortunate on balls in play (.250) and, to a lesser extent, home runs (8.1% HR/FB vs. career 10.6%). Brach is a flyball pitcher -- career GB% of only 35.7 -- so a lower BABIP than normal makes sense (grounders or more likely to be hits than fly balls). And, obviously, he allows more fly balls, so keeping the percentage of home runs per fly ball down makes a real difference.
Brach did a much better job of getting opposing batters to expand the strike zone as well. In 2014, he had an O-Swing% of 34.2; his previous high in any season was 31.8%, and that came in 2011 when he threw just seven innings. Other than that, it was 28.1% in 2012.
Also, Brach had a change in fastball velocity. He saw a nearly 2 mph increase on his four-seamer.
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Brach had never averaged above 93 mph on his four-seamer before 2014, and he averaged close to 95 mph last season.
He also introduced a new pitch to go along with his four-seamer, slider, and splitter: a sinker (at least according to Brooks Baseball). Before this season, Brach had thrown his four-seamer the most, about two-thirds of the time, followed by his slider and splitter. But he threw his sinker 15% of the time last season, which took a chunk out of his four-seam offerings.
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But the sinker was not a panacea for Brach. It was actually his least effective pitch. Opposing batters posted a .231 ISO against his sinker. Left-handed batters, in particular, hit his sinker very, very hard (.417 ISO; obligatory small sample size warning). Brach's best pitch was actually his slider: He threw it 194 times and allowed five singles and one walk. The splitter and slider are probably his two best pitches. The splitter is his whiff pitch (followed by his slider), and they both produce more ground balls than his fastballs. Brach opts for more splitters than sliders against lefties, and against right-handed batters, he throws more sliders.
Career wise, Brach has fared better against right-handed batters:
vs. RH: .295 wOBA
vs. LH: .317 wOBA
That disparity was even more pronounced in 2014:
vs. RH: .250 wOBA
vs. LH: .334 wOBA
As you'd expect, Brach strikes out more right-handed batters and walks them less often. Lefties, meanwhile, hit the ball harder. Overall, perhaps he should consider throwing more sliders. Opposing batters haven't hit that pitch hard since 2012.
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Brach has only thrown 167 major league innings, and so far he's outpitched his FIP/xFIP. His RA9 numbers are more forgiving, so it's not surprising that he has a career fWAR of -0.6 but a bWAR of 0.5. The uptick in velocity for Brach is encouraging, and the addition of the sinker is at least interesting, even if it doesn't appear yet to be an effective pitch. It's possible that he's been working with Britton and the pitching coaches to improve his sinker and it could be something he throws more often (I couldn't find a single story discussing Brach and his sinker). Perhaps a change-up would be more beneficial, as his four-seamer/sinker and splitter/slider are thrown at similar speeds. But relievers only need one or two effective pitches (definitely one if you can throw Britton's sinker), so it's not a requirement.
It's promising that Brach was tasked with higher-leverage innings last season and rose to the challenge. His peripherals don't reflect an elite or even very good reliever, but he can still be useful, especially if he's limiting his walks and keeping the ball in the ballpark. He'll also perform better if he doesn't have to face many left-handed hitters.
We've already discussed how 2015 is a big year for the Orioles. They have a bunch of impending free agents after the season, including three right-handed relievers: O'Day, Hunter, and Webb. All three may not depart, but it's possible. And if they do, Brach could stand to take on a bigger role, especially if he excels in 2015.
Photo via Keith Allison
08 September 2014
Postseason Roster Crunch: The Pitching Staff
The Orioles manage their 25-man roster as meticulously as any team in the league. Dan Duquette and Buck Showalter
regularly shuffle the roster throughout the season in order to make sure the
best assets are available to help them win on any given day. However, when the
postseason arrives, the day-to-day changes to the 25-man roster will no longer
be an option. In the postseason, once a team submits its 25-man roster, it is
set for that series. The only exception to this is that a team can replace an
injured player during a series with permission from the Commissioner’s office.
The injured player is not available for the duration of that series or the following series. In terms players available for the postseason roster, a rule change this season has expanded the pool to any player on the 40-man roster as of August 31st, as well as the same DL stipulations from
previous years.
With
added days off during a postseason series, a team has the opportunity to get
creative with how their roster is constructed. However, in 2012, the Orioles
went with the conventional 12 pitchers in the ALDS series vs. the Yankees, including all 5 members of their rotation on the roster for that series. While
they could decide to do something different this year, the safest bet is that
they will carry 12 pitchers, 5 of them being the current members of the
rotation (Chris Tillman, Kevin Gausman, Wei-Yin Chen, Bud Norris, and Miguel
Gonzalez). For the final 7 spots, Zach Britton, Darren O’Day, and Andrew Miller
are all locks to be on the postseason roster, barring injury. The frontrunners for
the final 4 spots are Tommy Hunter, Brian Matusz, Brad Brach, and T.J.
McFarland. However, I think there’s a chance, to a varying degree, that any of
these 4 players could be left off the postseason roster for at least a round.
Here’s a look at the pitchers I think will fill the final 4 spots on the postseason and roster and why that may or may not end up being the case.
Tommy Hunter-Hunter
on the postseason roster is all but a sure thing, but he’s not as safe as the
trio of Britton, O’Day, and Miller. Yes, Hunter has spent the entire season on
the 25-man roster (other than a D.L. stint) but he’s out of options, so
including him in the roster shuffling wasn’t a possibility. After a rough start, Hunter has put together a
nice season. In many ways, Hunter has actually put together a better season
this year than in 2013.
Hunter
|
FIP
|
HR/9
|
GB%
|
2013
|
3.68
|
1.15
|
39.0
|
2014
|
3.32
|
0.68
|
51.3
|
Brian Matusz-I’d
be equally surprised if Matusz wasn’t included on the postseason roster but I also don’t
consider him a 100% lock either. Matusz hasn’t been as sharp this year. His 4.28 FIP
in 2014 is a far cry from 2013’s 2.91. He hasn’t been as effective vs lefties,
his strikeout rate has dropped, and he’s giving up more home runs. There are certain opponents that will ensure
Matusz is on the 25-man. For example, he will definitely be on the roster if
the Orioles face the Angels due to the fact that Josh Hamilton is 1-for-13 with
8 K’s vs. Matusz. But if the Orioles play someone such as Kansas City, there’s
no matchup that jumps out as to why Matusz must be included on the roster. At the same time, there’s no better option that jumps out
as a reason to exclude Matusz. The most likely scenario in which Matusz is
excluded is if the Orioles face the Tigers (although I’d still expect him to be
on the roster). While much of the damage was done to Matusz by righties while
he was a starter, the Tigers current roster has a slash line of .373/.415/.573
in 75 AB’s vs. him. Still, Matusz is all but assured a spot, in large part
because he’s the primary lefty specialist option, despite the other LHP options
available to Showalter.
Brad Brach- At
the start of the season, no one had Brach pegged as a favorite to land a spot
on the postseason roster. While he’s not as likely as Hunter or Matusz to be
included, his 2014 performance will probably land him a spot. There are 11 pitchers who have thrown
10 or more relief innings for the Orioles this year. Out of these 11 pitchers,
Brach ranks are respectable: ERA (6th), FIP (7th), and
K/9 (5th). Along with the fact that he’s been on the 25-man roster
since mid-June, Brach will more likely than not be on the postseason roster.
T.J. McFarland-While
I think McFarland is the most likely candidate to grab the last bullpen spot,
he’s also the most likely, of these 4 relievers, to not make the postseason
roster. If the Orioles again carry all 5 starters, there is an all but zero
chance that each them are in the rotation in the best-of-5 ALDS series. With a
starter pushed to the bullpen and thus able to be the long-man, does McFarland
lose his spot on the postseason roster? A case can be made for keeping him
regardless. After Britton, his 58.6 GB% is the best in the bullpen. He’s also
had a solid 2nd half, posting a 2.38 FIP. McFarland isn’t generally
used as a matchup pitcher, but track record vs. the opponent will play a role
in the decision. Yes, the sample sizes are small, but Showalter is known to
heavily factor such things. Here’s McFarland’s career numbers vs. the O’s
potential opponents.
McFarland vs.
|
AB
|
AVG/OBP/SLG
|
Royals
|
28
|
.393/.433/.571
|
Tigers
|
14
|
.143/.294/.357
|
Athletics
|
34
|
.294/.351/.412
|
Mariners
|
28
|
.357/.400/.464
|
Stats
courtesy of ESPN.com
The Angels have a grand total of 2 PA’s vs. McFarland.
Given Showalter's tendency to weigh matchups so heavily, the most likely scenarios in which McFarland isn't on the postseason roster is if the Orioles face the Royals or the Mariners.
Given Showalter's tendency to weigh matchups so heavily, the most likely scenarios in which McFarland isn't on the postseason roster is if the Orioles face the Royals or the Mariners.
Who is the most likely to replace one of the above
relievers?
Ryan Webb-Nate
did a great job of discussing why demoting Webb was a questionable decision.
Simply put, he’s been one of the team’s better relievers when he’s been up. But he
didn’t do himself any favors in Norfolk, posting an ERA (4.76) and FIP (3.27)
inferior to his marks in Baltimore this year. I’d like to see Webb on the
postseason over McFarland or Brach.
Player
|
FIP
|
ERA
|
K-BB%
|
IP
|
fWAR
|
Webb
|
2.61
|
3.80
|
13.6
|
42.2
|
0.8
|
Brach
|
3.60
|
3.25
|
12.2
|
52.2
|
0.4
|
McFarland
|
3.49
|
3.04
|
7.7
|
47.1
|
0.4
|
Matchup wise, there isn’t any particular hitter or team that
Webb has had notable success against that will help his case to be included.
The strongest case to include Webb is that he’s simply one of the 7 best
relievers the Orioles have.
Evan Meek-Unlike
Webb, Meek pitched effectively during his time in Norfolk, posting a 1.94/2.49
ERA/FIP. He was also entrusted with the closer role, picking up 16 saves.
Nonetheless, Meek is a long shot to make the postseason roster given his
performance in Baltimore this year. While some of that is due to an inflated
BABIP and HR/FB, there are too many better options available to believe Meek
will be on the active roster come October.
Ubaldo Jimenez-Well,
here we are. Barring something drastic, Jimenez won’t be on the postseason
roster. While it’s a topic for another time, I’m not writing Jimenez off in
terms of ever being a productive player for the Orioles. But man, he has been
bad this year. Since the year 2000, a pitcher has totaled 110+ IP in a season
1976 times. Of those 1976 instances, only 10 pitchers have had a higher BB/9
than Jimenez’s 5.51 this season. I tried to find a reasonable circumstance in
which Jimenez makes the postseason roster and I don’t think one exists. I
suppose if two starters go down with injuries, the Orioles may be forced to use
him. Maybe Showalter will fall in love with the fact that the current Oakland
roster has a .203 average vs. Jimenez (126 PA)? Finding a circumstance in which
he makes the postseason roster is just an exercise in grasping at straws.
Preston Guilmet hasn’t been terrible this season, but I see
no indication from the way he’s been used that he’ll be considered for a spot
on the postseason roster. Joe Saunders also won’t be included.
The bullpen I believe the Orioles should use is only slightly different than the one I think they will use. I think that all 5 current SP (Tillman, Gausman,
Chen, Norris, Gonzalez) will be on the roster. After that, Britton, O’Day and
Miller are locks. Hunter and Matusz will also be included. Here’s where I think
I will split from what the Orioles decide to do. Brach and McFarland will
likely grab the last two spots, but I’d like to see Webb in place of either of
them. Regardless, this staff is solid, and the bullpen is worth getting excited about no matter who grabs the final spot or two out there. What is even more
exciting is the fact that it is the second week of September and we find
ourselves able to talk about the Orioles and their all but certain postseason
appearance.
All stats (current as of 9/6/14) courtesy of Fangraphs, unless otherwise noted. Photo by Keith Allison
All stats (current as of 9/6/14) courtesy of Fangraphs, unless otherwise noted. Photo by Keith Allison
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