Arrivals and Departures: Sorting Out Last Week (8/3/2015)

There was a great deal of action for the Orioles leading up to and after the deadline:

July 31st
Zach Davies (RHP) traded to the Milwaukee Brewers for Gerardo Parra (RF)
Tommy Hunter (RHP) traded to the Chicago Cubs for Junior Lake (LF/DH)
Bud Norris (RHP) designated for assignment
Chris Parmalee (1B/COF) designated for assignment
Mychal Givens (RHP) recalled from Bowie
Mike Wright (RHP) recalled from Norfolk
August 1st
Mike Wright (RHP) placed on the 15 day DL
Sean Bierman (LHP) signed to a minor league contract
Jorge Rondon (RHP) recalled from Norfolk
August 2nd
Jorge Rondon (RHP) optioned to Norfolk
Tyler Wilson (RHP) recalled from Norfolk

As was discussed last week, the Orioles were on the fence with respect to attempting to make the playoffs.  A week ago, they were generally projected as having a 1 in 8 shot of making the playoffs.  A successful homestand later, they find themselves today with a 1 in 4 chance.  My general rule of thumb is anything above 20% you go for it and anything below you sell off impending free agents.  In other words, I probably would have been selling off items even though the club was only a couple games behind the play-in wild card.  That is how it is when a club is on the threshold, the needle can certainly slide in either direction.

Anyway, the Parra addition slightly strengthens the corner outfield.  The initial look has the Orioles putting Parra in left, which does not solve the outfield's main problem: range.  Parra has lost a few steps and would benefit by having Adam Jones range into left.  However, pushing Chris Davis into right field means that Jones has himself occupied by giving Davis some coverage.  The club would be better off with Davis at first, Parra in right, and then maybe Lough in left.  I still believe in Lough's value in his defense, but that candle certainly burns less bright than it used to.

The Hunter-for-Lake deal was a ledger move.  By dealing Hunter, the money taken on with the Parra deal is almost completely cancelled out.  From what I have been told, this was not the original plan.  The hope was that another club would be interested enough in the Orioles' fringe second tier prospect pool to throw money in.  From what I can tell, that did not happen.  Concurrently, the club was entertaining several teams on potential deals for Tommy Hunter, a serviceable 7th inning righthander.  The team eventually found itself deep in talks with the Cubs and managed to squeeze out Junior Lake.  A past-prospect who keeps sliding off the defensive spectrum and has yet learned how to put himself into good counts at the MLB level.  I hate to use the term failed prospect, but it is safe to say that the Cubs no longer planned on him providing much of anything to their future success.  It is likely that the Orioles feel somewhat the same with Lake immediately transferred into the farm system.  In the end, the Orioles saved some money and, along with Bud Norris' DFA, are now able to run a Norfolk shuttle to help keep the bullpen fresh with optionable arms.

The other name that popped up these past couple days is Sean Bierman.  Bierman was a 10th round selection by the Tampa Bay Rays back in 2012 out of the University of Tampa (his college career was derailed a bit by needing Tommy John surgery).  Perennially old for his leagues, Bierman used a high 80s two seamer to induce groundballs and perform rather well by pitching to contact.  He was enough of a fringe prospect to be included in a deal where the Rays acquired the ailing Jesse Crain in 2013.  After half a season with the White Sox, Bierman was let go and found himself playing in the CanAm independent league.  He dominated over 16 starts as polished lefties are wont to do in those leagues and found himself in the service of the Atlanta Braves.  After the season, the Braves let him go and Bierman signed with the Atlantic League which he also dominated, allowing 23 earned runs over a 115 IP.  The Orioles signed him and he will likely provide some depth in the Minors with the entire system being bumped up two with the departures of Hunter and Norris.

Below is the current 40 man roster with options:

Orioles Deal Tommy Hunter For Outfield Depth

In a last minute deal before the 2015 trade deadline, the Orioles sent right-handed relief pitcher Tommy Hunter to the Chicago Cubs for outfielder Junior Lake. Hunter was acquired with Chris Davis in 2011 from the Texas Rangers, and after the “Tommy Hunter: Starting Pitcher” experiment failed to yield productive results, the Orioles sent him to the bullpen for good towards the end of the 2012 season. It was there he found a few extra ticks on his fastball and was generally an effective reliever at a modest price, although his outings could sometimes be stressful. As an Orioles reliever, Hunter had an ERA of 3.11 in 211 innings pitched, while striking out 19.2% of batters and walking 4.9%. Hunter’s time in Baltimore as a reliever could be described as solid, if unspectacular, and he contributed positive value to the organization, contributing a total of 2.9 bWAR during his time in Baltimore (that number includes his time starting as well).

However, over time his relative value to the club diminished due to his rising salary through arbitration (Hunter is making $4.65 million in 2015) and the fact that he no longer had any minor league options remaining. As anyone who follows the Orioles knows, the Dan Duquette led front office values these options greatly, especially in the bullpen where they shuttle relievers back and forth between Norfolk and Baltimore depending on matchups, performance, health, etc. Hunter was due to become a free agent after the season, so having several relief pitchers on the 40 man roster with minor league options remaining (who could provide similar production) available made it an easy decision for the Orioles to deal Hunter and get something of value in return.

That something of value returning is Chicago Cubs outfielder Junior Lake (personally I was hoping for Mike Olt). Lake is a former prospect who topped out as the Cubs 8th best prospect prior to the 2012 season according to Baseball America. He’s lost some luster since then and is better suited as outfield depth. In Lake, the Orioles are getting an outfielder with plus power and a very strong arm (Baseball America rated it the best infield arm in the Cubs system from 2008 to 2012). Unfortunately, he he has a lot of trouble with breaking balls and lacks a sound approach at the plate, so he’s not likely to hit enough to get to that power. His arm is less of an asset than it should be as well, as his overall defense in the outfield generally isn’t well regarded. In a limited sample, advanced metrics love him in left field (where is arm is less useful), but find him well below average in center and right.

Overall, Lake has a career batting line of .241/.283/.380 in 642 PA’s. He strikes out more than 30% of the time and walks less than 5% of the time. All of this has added up to roughly 0.2 wins above replacement (according to Fangraphs) in approximately a season worth of at-bats, the very definition of a replacement player. This does not mean that he doesn’t have value. Lake could be productive as the light side of a platoon, as he’s a much better hitter against left-handers, putting up a 118 wRC+ in 185 career plate appearances. Additionally, Lake is still just 25 years old, so while it’s very unlikely, there’s an incredibly small chance things click for him at the plate (though I wouldn’t hold my breath for that to happen). He also has minor league options remaining and won’t be arbitration eligible until 2017, and as discussed before the organization values that flexibility.

Overall, this trade doesn’t really move the needle on the 2015 season. The Orioles gain additional flexibility in the bullpen and the outfield in one move by dealing a quality (but easily replaceable) reliever who is about to become a free agent for a player the Chicago Cubs didn’t really have much use for anymore. Ultimately, Tommy Hunter was not going to bring back much, and the Orioles did well to get back a player who could at least help in a limited capacity at a position of need.

Oh, and the Orioles also save the remaining salary owed to Hunter as well in this deal, which conveniently works out to be approximately the same amount they will owe to newly acquired Gerardo Parra, which I highly doubt is a coincidence.

Constructing the Orioles 2015 Bullpen

It's no secret that the bullpen was a strength of the 2014 Orioles team. The bullpen finished 6th in MLB in ERA and 5th in fWAR (although just 15th in FIP). Zach Britton was a revelation, going from failed starter to being one of the better closers in baseball in 2014. Darren O'Day put together another great campaign, making picking up his $4.25 million option a no-brainer. Andrew Miller was brought in at the deadline to bolster the back end of the bullpen and was dominant during his time in Baltimore.

Orioles fans saw first-hand just how important bullpens can become in the postseason. In the ALDS, a strong effort by the club's bullpen, combined with an atrocious Tigers' bullpen, helped to lift the team to the ALCS. The Orioles' bullpen wasn't awful in the ALCS, but it sputtered at times, while the back-end of the Royals bullpen was strong.

Looking at the success of the Orioles' bullpen this season, and the importance of bullpens in the postseason, might lead one to believe that bolstering the bullpen with the best relievers available on the free-agent market should be a top priority for the Orioles this off-season. We've written here before why relievers shouldn't be overvalued. Orioles' fans need only look so far as Britton, Jim Johnson, Tommy Hunter, Brian Matusz and so on to know that great seasons from a reliever can come from unexpected and cheap options. So, offering a reliever top dollar (Hey, Andrew Miller!) is generally not the most efficient use of resources and is certainly risky.

The Orioles are pretty brilliant with how they approach their bullpen strategy. They get rid of relievers such as Jim Johnson once they become overpriced, and they are also really good at accumulating players with options, such as T.J. McFarland, Brad Brach etc. in order to increase the odds of finding lightening in a bottle during any particular season.

With that in mind, I'm going to take a look at the internal options for the Orioles' bullpen this year as well as a few external options that they should consider.

Zach Britton-Britton, coming off a dominant season as the Orioles closer, is entering his first year of salary arbitration. While he will certainly make more money in 2015, Britton's arbitration number will still be reasonable. If he continues to put together solid seasons as the closer, he could eventually get the Jim Johnson treatment and be shipped out of town, but for 2015 Britton is a lock to enter the season as the closer.

Darren O'Day-As I said above, the Orioles smartly picked up O'Day's option for 2015. $4.25 million isn't dirt cheap for a reliever, but it's certainly reasonable given O'Day's level of production and, more importantly, it's only for one year.

Photo by Keith Allison

Tommy Hunter-Hunter is entering his third year of salary arbitration after earning $3 million in 2014. He will get a raise. If the Orioles are looking to reallocate resources, he could be moved. But I think the club should keep Hunter around given the fact that the financial commitment is only for one year. After a rocky stretch as the team's closer to start 2014, Hunter settled in to become an integral part of the pen, leading all Orioles' relievers with a second-half fWAR of 0.6.

Brian Matusz-Just like Hunter, Matusz is entering his third year of arbitration. He earned $2.4 million in 2014 and will also be getting a raise. I think the Orioles should cut ties with Matusz, whether that be through non-tendering him or trading him. Don't get me wrong, Matusz had a great second half for the club, but the Orioles will get better value by letting a cheaper option handle his innings and reallocating his salary elsewhere.

Ryan Webb-Webb seemed to fall out of favor in Baltimore, but I hope he's back and given a chance to contribute next season. He's under contract for a reasonable $2.75 million. He also was pretty good when he was given the chance to pitch in Baltimore this season.

T.J. McFarland-McFarland is one of the players who could receive an expanded role should the team move Matusz. He'll be cheap and he has two option years reaming, giving the team the roster flexibility it covets. That being said, I'd expect McFarland to spend the majority of the season in Baltimore.

Brad Brach-Brach isn't eligible for arbitration until next season, so he'll be back on the cheap. He is out of options, but Showalter clearly trusts the guy, so it seems as if a spot in the bullpen is his to lose in 2015.

The Orioles have other options, although not all currently on the 40-man, who will compete for time in the bullpen next season such as Evan Meek, Tim Berry, Mike Wright, and Suk-min Yoon. Dylan Bundy could also be an option at some point in the season, given the Orioles' crowded rotation and the fact that he's had trouble staying healthy (not a long-term move to the bullpen, but he'll be considered if the team is in a pinch and he's rested). Buck Showalter recently hinted at the fact that some of the Orioles' young arms in the system could be used as relievers in Baltimore before being given a shot at the rotation. Expect the Orioles to add a few guys with option years to minor league deals or off of waivers, as they recently did with Patrick McCoy.

So, here's where the bullpen stands now, as I see it.

1) Britton
2) O'Day
3) Hunter
4) Brach
5) McFarland
6) Webb
7) ???

Webb might not be back given his 2014 usage, 2015 salary, and the fact that he's out of options, much like all of those relievers except for McFarland. The Orioles may prefer to use his spot on a cheaper reliever with options that gives them roster flexibility or on a LHP, particular if Matusz is not brought back. But, regardless, the Orioles have a spot or two in the bullpen that they should look to fill this off-season, probably with a LHP given that McFarland is the only LHP of the group above. Here are a few players I think they should consider.

Player	GP	FIP	ERA	fWAR	2014 Salary	K/9
Zach Duke	74	2.14	2.45	1.3	$850K	11.35
Tom Gorzelanny	23	2.99	0.86	0.2	$2.95 mil	9.86
Neal Cotts	73	3.58	4.32	0.8	$2.2 mil	8.51
Joe Thatcher	53	3.43	3.86	0.2	$2.38 mil	8.01

I've ordered the pitchers by K/9, as the Orioles should target strikeout relievers to help boost a bullpen that is all but certain to lose Andrew Miller after finishing 24th in the league in K/9 in 2014.

Duke is a very appealing option after a stellar 2014 campaign. His cost shouldn't be anything too outrageous, as he wasn't even the Brewers primary setup option last season. This was his first full season dedicated solely to being a reliever and he thrived. While Steamers projects him to come back down to earth a bit in terms of K/9 next season, he would be welcomed addition to the Orioles bullpen, likely at a very reasonable salary.

Gorzelanny pitched well for the Brewers once he recovered from his 2013 shoulder surgery. With questions about his durability and limited high-leverage use in 2014, Gorzelanny could be a good value in the Orioles 2015 bullpen.

Cotts is another LHP option that strikes more batters out than the average pitcher in the Orioles' bullpen. Of the 4 pitchers I've listed, I think Cotts may draw the most attention around the league. However, a reliever who has just 4 career saves and is coming off a good but not dominant season shouldn't command too high of a salary.

Thatcher is another left-handed reliever on the market who can likely be had for a very reasonable value. Thatcher's 2014 BABIP of .340 is well above his career mark of .316, suggesting a beneficial change in luck may be headed his way in 2015.

______________________________________________________

The Orioles 2015 bullpen should include Britton, O'Day, Hunter, Brach, and McFarland. I'd like to see Ryan Webb in the bullpen as well but wouldn't be terribly upset if they shed his salary and allowed multiple players with options (such as McCoy), on minor league deals, and Spring Training invites to compete for a spot. That still leaves one spot open for the Orioles to go out and sign one of these 4 LHP that would provide a boost to a bullpen that needs to strike more people out next season.

2015 Steamer Projections for the Orioles' Arbitration-Eligible Pitchers

The Orioles have a lot of decisions facing them this off-season. They have big name free-agents, the Nick Markakis option decision, important players entering their final year of team control, as well as a number of players in arbitration. These decisions facing the Orioles will get plenty of attention on Camden Depot as we proceed through the off-season. In this post, I'm not going to offer opinions on the decisions facing the team, but instead hope that this creates a useful resource as we proceed into the off-season. A couple other resources that may be helpful are Jon's arrivals and departures post, as well as this salary chart courtesy of Grantland.

The list below are all of the Orioles pitchers facing salary arbitration. In my next post, I'll take a look at the hitters. I've included some 2014 numbers for each players, but just as important are the 2015 Steamer projections for these players, in order to give the arbitration cases some context.

Photo by Keith Allison

Bud Norris
Arbitration year 3
2014 salary: $5.3 million

	IP	FIP	fWAR
2014	165.1	4.22	1.5
2015 Projection	182.0	4.34	1.4

Tommy Hunter

Arbitration year 3

2014 salary: $3 million

	IP	FIP	fWAR
2014	60.2	3.15	0.8
2015 Projection	35.0	3.55	0.2

Brian Matusz

Arbitration year 3

2014 salary: $2.4 million

	IP	FIP	fWAR
2014	51.2	4.00	0.3
2015 Projection	40.0	4.03	0.1

Evan Meek

Arbitration year 1

2014 salary: $800,000

	IP	FIP	fWAR
2014	23.1	5.10	-0.4
2015 Projection	1.0*	4.51	0.0

*For players who weren't on the active roster when a team's season ended, they are only give 1 game played for now. This will be fixed after the playoffs, but I believe the rate projections will be unchanged. 

Chris Tillman

Arbitration year 1

2014 salary: $546,000

	IP	FIP	fWAR
2014	207.1	4.01	2.4
2015 Projection	202.0	4.64	0.9

Miguel Gonzalez

Arbitration year 1

2014 salary: $529,000

	IP	FIP	fWAR
2014	159.0	4.89	0.6
2015 Projection	189.0	4.95	0.2

Zach Britton

Arbitration year 1

2014 salary: $521,500

	IP	FIP	fWAR
2014	76.1	3,13	1.1
2015 Projection	65.0	3,29	0.7

These are the 7 Orioles pitchers that are eligible for arbitration this off-season. Like I said, I put this together as a resource, as there is still plenty of time to debate and analyze the decisions facing the Orioles. Feel free to do so in the comments, if you'd like. In my next post I'll take a look at the hitters who are eligible for arbitration. 

Postseason Roster Crunch: The Pitching Staff

The Orioles manage their 25-man roster as meticulously as any team in the league. Dan Duquette and Buck Showalter regularly shuffle the roster throughout the season in order to make sure the best assets are available to help them win on any given day. However, when the postseason arrives, the day-to-day changes to the 25-man roster will no longer be an option. In the postseason, once a team submits its 25-man roster, it is set for that series. The only exception to this is that a team can replace an injured player during a series with permission from the Commissioner’s office. The injured player is not available for the duration of that series or the following series. In terms players available for the postseason roster, a rule change this season has expanded the pool to any player on the 40-man roster as of August 31st, as well as the same DL stipulations from previous years.

               

With added days off during a postseason series, a team has the opportunity to get creative with how their roster is constructed. However, in 2012, the Orioles went with the conventional 12 pitchers in the ALDS series vs. the Yankees, including all 5 members of their rotation on the roster for that series. While they could decide to do something different this year, the safest bet is that they will carry 12 pitchers, 5 of them being the current members of the rotation (Chris Tillman, Kevin Gausman, Wei-Yin Chen, Bud Norris, and Miguel Gonzalez). For the final 7 spots, Zach Britton, Darren O’Day, and Andrew Miller are all locks to be on the postseason roster, barring injury. The frontrunners for the final 4 spots are Tommy Hunter, Brian Matusz, Brad Brach, and T.J. McFarland. However, I think there’s a chance, to a varying degree, that any of these 4 players could be left off the postseason roster for at least a round. 

Here’s a look at the pitchers I think will fill the final 4 spots on the postseason and roster and why that may or may not end up being the case.  

Tommy Hunter-Hunter on the postseason roster is all but a sure thing, but he’s not as safe as the trio of Britton, O’Day, and Miller. Yes, Hunter has spent the entire season on the 25-man roster (other than a D.L. stint) but he’s out of options, so including him in the roster shuffling wasn’t a possibility.  After a rough start, Hunter has put together a nice season. In many ways, Hunter has actually put together a better season this year than in 2013.

Hunter	FIP	HR/9	GB%
2013	3.68	1.15	39.0
2014	3.32	0.68	51.3

Brian Matusz-I’d be equally surprised if Matusz wasn’t included on the postseason roster but I also don’t consider him a 100% lock either. Matusz hasn’t been as sharp this year. His 4.28 FIP in 2014 is a far cry from 2013’s 2.91. He hasn’t been as effective vs lefties, his strikeout rate has dropped, and he’s giving up more home runs.  There are certain opponents that will ensure Matusz is on the 25-man. For example, he will definitely be on the roster if the Orioles face the Angels due to the fact that Josh Hamilton is 1-for-13 with 8 K’s vs. Matusz. But if the Orioles play someone such as Kansas City, there’s no matchup that jumps out as to why Matusz must be included on the roster. At the same time, there’s no better option that jumps out as a reason to exclude Matusz. The most likely scenario in which Matusz is excluded is if the Orioles face the Tigers (although I’d still expect him to be on the roster). While much of the damage was done to Matusz by righties while he was a starter, the Tigers current roster has a slash line of .373/.415/.573 in 75 AB’s vs. him. Still, Matusz is all but assured a spot, in large part because he’s the primary lefty specialist option, despite the other LHP options available to Showalter.

Brad Brach- At the start of the season, no one had Brach pegged as a favorite to land a spot on the postseason roster. While he’s not as likely as Hunter or Matusz to be included, his 2014 performance will probably land him a spot. There are 11 pitchers who have thrown 10 or more relief innings for the Orioles this year. Out of these 11 pitchers, Brach ranks are respectable: ERA (6^th), FIP (7^th), and K/9 (5^th). Along with the fact that he’s been on the 25-man roster since mid-June, Brach will more likely than not be on the postseason roster.

T.J. McFarland-While I think McFarland is the most likely candidate to grab the last bullpen spot, he’s also the most likely, of these 4 relievers, to not make the postseason roster. If the Orioles again carry all 5 starters, there is an all but zero chance that each them are in the rotation in the best-of-5 ALDS series. With a starter pushed to the bullpen and thus able to be the long-man, does McFarland lose his spot on the postseason roster? A case can be made for keeping him regardless. After Britton, his 58.6 GB% is the best in the bullpen. He’s also had a solid 2^nd half, posting a 2.38 FIP. McFarland isn’t generally used as a matchup pitcher, but track record vs. the opponent will play a role in the decision. Yes, the sample sizes are small, but Showalter is known to heavily factor such things. Here’s McFarland’s career numbers vs. the O’s potential opponents.

McFarland vs.	AB	AVG/OBP/SLG
Royals	28	.393/.433/.571
Tigers	14	.143/.294/.357
Athletics	34	.294/.351/.412
Mariners	28	.357/.400/.464

Stats courtesy of ESPN.com

The Angels have a grand total of 2 PA’s vs. McFarland.

Given Showalter's tendency to weigh matchups so heavily, the most likely scenarios in which McFarland isn't on the postseason roster is if the Orioles face the Royals or the Mariners. 

Who is the most likely to replace one of the above relievers?

Ryan Webb-Nate did a great job of discussing why demoting Webb was a questionable decision. Simply put, he’s been one of the team’s better relievers when he’s been up. But he didn’t do himself any favors in Norfolk, posting an ERA (4.76) and FIP (3.27) inferior to his marks in Baltimore this year. I’d like to see Webb on the postseason over McFarland or Brach.

Player	FIP	ERA	K-BB%	IP	fWAR
Webb	2.61	3.80	13.6	42.2	0.8
Brach	3.60	3.25	12.2	52.2	0.4
McFarland	3.49	3.04	7.7	47.1	0.4

Matchup wise, there isn’t any particular hitter or team that Webb has had notable success against that will help his case to be included. The strongest case to include Webb is that he’s simply one of the 7 best relievers the Orioles have.

Evan Meek-Unlike Webb, Meek pitched effectively during his time in Norfolk, posting a 1.94/2.49 ERA/FIP. He was also entrusted with the closer role, picking up 16 saves. Nonetheless, Meek is a long shot to make the postseason roster given his performance in Baltimore this year. While some of that is due to an inflated BABIP and HR/FB, there are too many better options available to believe Meek will be on the active roster come October.

Ubaldo Jimenez-Well, here we are. Barring something drastic, Jimenez won’t be on the postseason roster. While it’s a topic for another time, I’m not writing Jimenez off in terms of ever being a productive player for the Orioles. But man, he has been bad this year. Since the year 2000, a pitcher has totaled 110+ IP in a season 1976 times. Of those 1976 instances, only 10 pitchers have had a higher BB/9 than Jimenez’s 5.51 this season. I tried to find a reasonable circumstance in which Jimenez makes the postseason roster and I don’t think one exists. I suppose if two starters go down with injuries, the Orioles may be forced to use him. Maybe Showalter will fall in love with the fact that the current Oakland roster has a .203 average vs. Jimenez (126 PA)? Finding a circumstance in which he makes the postseason roster is just an exercise in grasping at straws.

Preston Guilmet hasn’t been terrible this season, but I see no indication from the way he’s been used that he’ll be considered for a spot on the postseason roster. Joe Saunders also won’t be included.

The bullpen I believe the Orioles should use is only slightly different than the one I think they will use. I think that all 5 current SP (Tillman, Gausman, Chen, Norris, Gonzalez) will be on the roster. After that, Britton, O’Day and Miller are locks. Hunter and Matusz will also be included. Here’s where I think I will split from what the Orioles decide to do. Brach and McFarland will likely grab the last two spots, but I’d like to see Webb in place of either of them. Regardless, this staff is solid, and the bullpen is worth getting excited about no matter who grabs the final spot or two out there. What is even more exciting is the fact that it is the second week of September and we find ourselves able to talk about the Orioles and their all but certain postseason appearance.

All stats (current as of 9/6/14) courtesy of Fangraphs, unless otherwise noted. Photo by Keith Allison