No matter whether it is professional or personal, breaking up is hard to do. When Nick Markakis left the Baltimore Orioles via free agency in favor of the Atlanta Braves in 2014, the Birdland faithful struggled with the move. Adam Jones, it seems, also had a tough time saying "goodbye" to the man that played next to him in the Camden Yards outfield for so many years.
When the Orioles traveled to take on the Braves this weekend, it was a reunion of sorts for Markakis and his former teammates. It's not the first time the two teams have met since Markakis signed on the dotted line for Atlanta, but with everything crumbing in Baltimore, this felt like a significant moment nonetheless.
Jones is one of the few Orioles hitters with decent numbers, and he is also one of the big four that is expected to be on the trading block this July, as his contract expires after this year. However, he has 10-and-5 rights, which give him full no-trade protection. Even still, there will likely be offers for the 32-year-old's services, but he is ultimately in control on where he lands.
Markakis is in the midst of one of the finest seasons of his career. He is on the way to his first All-Star Game and leading an unexpectedly good Braves team to a potential pennant push. However, the 34-year-old is a free agent at year's end as well, and could find himself on the move soon enough.
A vague Instagram post by Jones over the weekend further fueled speculation about where the veteran outfielder may end up this summer. Could he be headed to Atlanta? Will both he and Markakis re-sign with the O's in the winter? Are there plans to meet up somewhere else in the league? We discuss that, and more, on this week's episode of The Warehouse Podcast!
Chris Tillman was placed on
the 10 day disabled list on May 11, and there’s no guarantee he will ever pitch
in an Orioles uniform again. This is sad, because from 2012 to 2016 Tillman was
one of the better pitchers in the American League, winning 63 games and posting
an ERA of 3.81 in that time frame while throwing the 10th most innings of any
American League starter. Of course, if you’ve been alive and an Orioles fan
since the end of 2016, you know that Tillman has, for lack of a better word,
been absolutely terrible.
Since 2017 began, Tillman
has thrown 119.2 innings. He has posted an ERA of 8.42 and a WHIP of 1.964. He
has (this is almost mind boggling) struck out only 76 hitters while walking 68.
In 2018, he has more walks than strikeouts, and has gotten swinging strikes on
only 5% of his pitches, which is about half the league average and one of the
worst marks in all of baseball. While you may have been able to deduce this
from the ERA, he has nearly given up a run an inning.
Matt Kremnitzer detailed Tillman’s woes relative to the current environment, but unfortunately what
Tillman has done since the start of last season is actually historic. Since
1899, no pitcher who was given 19 starts in a season had a worse ERA in those
starts than Chris Tillman did in 2017. Add in the disaster that has been 2018,
and Tillman has arguably had the worst 26 start stretch of all time.
Without question, some of
this is injury-related, as the shoulder issues Tillman dealt with in 2016
seemed to precipitate this incredibly rapid decline. Despite repeated denials
about his health being a major factor in his struggles, it is obvious that
something hasn’t been right for over two years. That said, it has become truly
hard to fathom what utility the Orioles see in continuing to throw Tillman to
the wolves. As recently as May 16, Buck Showalter had this to say regarding
Tillman’s rehab from his latest injury issue:
“As soon
as we get all the soreness and physical stuff behind him, then we’ll start, so
we haven’t really set up that schedule yet until we know that he’s pain-free.
After that it will move pretty quickly.”
It’s
possible that this is simply normal Buck-speak and that it’s unlikely Tillman
returns to the roster anytime soon. On the other hand, the Orioles saw Tillman
go through one of the worst seasons ever for a starting pitcher and still
brought him back, and then ran him out for seven starts of 10+ ERA pitching, so who knows?
Either
way, this is a depressing coda to what had once been a solid career. I don’t
think anyone would have considered in, say, 2014, that we’d be here in 2018
talking about Chris Tillman being historically bad. I was somewhat on board
with the Orioles signing Tillman to be the fifth starter, and even said:
“I think it's unlikely that Tillman's skill erosion is so extreme that he's now
the worst pitcher in baseball at age 29, and more likely that 2017 was simply
an extremely terrible and unlucky season.” My defense was that he would earn $3
million even if he was well below average and simply pitched like he did in
2015. Now, giving me that $3 million and asking me to put it all on black at
the Horseshoe Casino seems like a far more sane and safe bet.
I don't like piling on Chris Tillman. Last year's lingering shoulder problems seem to have zapped much of his ability, and it's a shame that it has come to this. But enough is enough.
The Orioles aren't a good team; I don't think anyone would dispute that. And considering the O's don't have a bunch of solid pitching prospects knocking on the door to the majors, there is some value (if you will) in having a couple of starting pitchers who will eat innings and take their lumps to work as a bridge to whatever that next group of pitchers might be. But in Tillman's case, if that bridge hasn't collapsed yet, it's in such horrible shape that no one would ever willfully cross it.
There's nothing about this that's hard to understand. Tillman simply looks like a pitcher who's done. In 93 innings last year, he posted a 7.84 ERA and 6.93 FIP. His never-high strikeout percentage also dipped to about 14%. The (misguided) thought in bringing back Tillman was that he couldn't be that bad again, but he's somehow been even worse. In 26 2/3 innings, he now has an ERA of 10.46 and a FIP over 7. That already-low K% is also now just 9.5%.
Among all pitchers who have thrown at least 100 innings since the beginning of 2017, Tillman has the worst fWAR (-1.5), bWAR (-2.9), ERA (8.42), FIP (7.00), HR/9 (2.26), and strikeout minus walk percentage (1.4%). The much-maligned Ubaldo Jimenez, who has the second worst ERA on this list (6.81), is more than a run and a half better than Tillman. He's currently out of baseball. The third player on this list, Matt Harvey (6.77), lost his rotation spot with the Mets and was recently traded away to the Reds for a backup catcher.
Never a hard thrower, Tillman is sitting under 90 mph with his fastball. His command has been shaky in nearly every outing. Opposing hitters are not getting fooled, and they're teeing off. Last year, Tillman allowed a wOBA of .414 (9th highest) and an xwOBA (expected wOBA) of .406 (t-4th highest) (min. 100 PA). In 2018, Tillman's wOBA allowed has jumped to .455 (3rd highest) and his xwOBA is a ridiculous .455 (2nd highest) (min. 100 PA). Nothing about this is fluky. Everything about this is painful.
And Tillman has been so bad that he's not even able to eat innings. He isn't even averaging four innings per start in 2018, and he's now failed to go longer than two innings three times in seven outings. There's a reason why fans dread Tillman's outings.
Tillman is so obviously the worst starting pitcher in the majors, and the Orioles keep running him out there like he's about to fix things and start some major turnaround. Eventually, this discussion always turns to "If not Tillman, then who?" In almost any other case, that would matter. But Tillman is the rare exception who has been so bad that almost anyone would be better. Can the next option be someone who can pitch four or five innings and post an ERA below 8? The bar to clear is extremely low.
After yesterday's ugly start, when Tillman gave up six runs (five earned) and recorded only four outs, Buck Showalter offered the same types of cliches that he's handed out for much of the season regarding Tillman:
“We’ll look at it and if there’s an adjustment we’re ready to make and how we’re comfortable how it affects everything else,” Showalter said. “Nobody knows better than Chris and everybody involved that’s not good enough to get us where we need to. He’s had a couple decent games, but it’s just been frustrating for him and us.”
Normally, that response is fine. But if there's some adjustment Tillman has to make, it must be something major. Even though Tillman insists he's healthy, he just seems broken now, and continuing to run him out there is not helping anything. After nearly every Tillman start, Showalter has to reassure everyone that Tillman knows what he's doing isn't good enough and that he's working as hard as possible to correct the issues.
It seems so long ago that Tillman was an effective starting pitcher. Maybe if Tillman and the Orioles had been more cautious with his shoulder in 2016, things would be different now. But it's time for change. Give Mike Wright yet another opportunity to start? Try it. Miguel Castro? Sure, what could it hurt? David Hess? That would be interesting. Yefry Ramirez? OK, I guess. Jimmy Yacabonis? That's probably the line.
"Just try something" is almost always a foolish plan, but running Tillman out there over and over again is, surprisingly, worse.
Stats via FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, and Baseball Savant
Opening day is just a day away! With the Orioles' (not very flexible) roster basically set, all that's left is for the weather to cooperate and for the season to get underway.
Still, if the O's are going to have any chance to compete for a playoff spot in 2018, they'll need to improve in plenty of spots. Obviously, that includes several veteran players.
The following group of key, returning players all had what would widely be considered down years for each:
- Manny Machado (2.8 fWAR, 102 wRC+)
- Chris Davis (0.2 fWAR, 92 wRC+)
- Mark Trumbo (-1.2 fWAR, 80 wRC+)
- Kevin Gausman (2.5 fWAR, 4.68 ERA)
- Chris Tillman (-1.0 fWAR, 7.84 ERA)
(You can throw Darren O'Day (3.43 ERA) in there if you want. I wouldn't, and there's a strong case that he's as effective as ever.)
So here's your task: Rank those five above in terms of how much confidence you have in each returning to form. Maybe that means for a couple of them to simply be effective again, as there's a big difference from Gausman's disappointing but far-from-useless season and what Trumbo and Tillman contributed.
Here's what my five would look like: Machado, Gausman, Davis, Trumbo, Tillman
After a disastrous 2017 season, Chris Tillman is back in the fold as one of the Orioles' five starting pitchers. He'll start the year in the rotation, and he'll be given a chance to show that last year was a blip on the radar.
Every O's fan hopes Tillman improves in 2018. It would be hard for him to pitch much worse, but that's not a reason that he'll necessarily pitch better. So... what if he doesn't? That was a question posed on Twitter last week by Andrew Keatts:
OK I’m changing the topic now. Tillman’s paltry $3m guarantee buys him how many terrible starts?
Regardless of how successful the team's offseason was, the Orioles are built to win now. Of all five starters -- Dylan Bundy, Kevin Gausman, Alex Cobb, Andrew Cashner, and Tillman -- Tillman appears to be the worst of the bunch. That's not to say the others won't struggle or that Tillman can't succeed, but he'd likely be the first choice if someone had to pick who'd pitch the worst in 2018. That's how bad Tillman was last year.
Tillman will make at least $3 million in 2018, hardly enough for the O's to keep running him out there over and over again if he has a few terrible outings to begin the year. Other current options, such as Mike Wright, Nestor Cortes, Miguel Castro, Gabriel Ynoa, etc., are far from significant upgrades on paper, but they do present the chance for some hope. The Orioles also appear to realize the need for more rotation depth, as Scott Feldman and even R.A. Dickey, among others, are pitchers they're checking in on. Surely, those rumors have something to do with Tillman's struggles in spring training and a fastball that has not often surpassed 90 mph.
The Orioles could desperately use the 2012-2016 version of Tillman. Even the 2015 version, when he posted a 4.99 ERA in 173 innings, would suffice. What the O's can't have is a repeat showing of 2017, and if he appears to be that same guy in his first handful of starts in April/May, it'll be tough for the O's to keep him on the roster.
So, back to the question above. My response: Tillman would get five bad starts, though that's probably too low. What do you think?
The Orioles re-signed Chris Tillman on Monday to a one year contract, guaranteeing him $3 million while offering incentives that could bring the total commitment to $10 million for 2018. This was a widely expected move, given the apparent slowness of Tillman's market and the fact that the Orioles are the only team he has pitched for in the big leagues. Tillman has pitched over 1100 innings for the Orioles since 2011, winning 73 games and acting as the de facto ace of the staff, and given the holes in the rotation, a one year deal for not much money always seemed like an obvious one.
The problem, of course, is that Tillman has struggled for the better part of three seasons. Excluding his excellent first half in 2016, in which he put a 3.41 ERA and struck out nearly 8 batters per 9, Tillman has been mediocre or worse since 2015 began. In fact, in total from 2015 to 2017, he has pitched to a 5.12 ERA, a 4.89 FIP, a 1.454 WHIP, 6.6 K/9, and 3.7 BB/9.
That's...not great. In fact, not great would be an improvement over whatever this is. This is bad. Really, really bad. Since 2015 began, Tillman has the 7th worst ERA , the 9th worst FIP, and the 13th worst WHIP among all qualified starters in baseball. He is also in the bottom 25 starters in fWAR, putting up just 3.2 wins in that time period.
It's easy to write off Tillman's mind-boggling 2017 as injury-related or simply an extreme outlier, but his decline was not as drastic or dramatic as maybe it seems. One of Tillman's defining traits during the years he was good, or at least solid, was an ability to get of jams. In 2013, 2014, and 2016, he was well above average in strand rate, and not coincidentally had three of his best seasons. Last year, he allowed over a third of his baserunners to score, which, I'm here to tell you, is incredibly bad.
Maybe this was a fluke, but his stuff may also be in significant decline. In 2015, he threw his fastball 65% of the time. In 2017, it was down to just over 50%. He gave up by far the most hard contact in his career, had his worst strikeout rate, walked an insane 4.94 hitters per 9 innings, and generated the fewest swings at pitches outside of the strike zone in his career. He also got crushed in the strike zone, with hitters making contact with over 90% of pitches in the zone (side note, Andrew Cashner gave up contact on 92% of all swings on pitches in the zone, so that should work out just fine).
But, take a look at this.
Tillman's strikeout, walk, and home run rate were all generally trending in the wrong direction even prior to his disastrous 2017. What immediately seems possible is that Tillman was always a borderline pitcher who leaned on his defense and slightly above average stuff to generate contact and get outs. Once the defense and stuff declined, however, yikes. It is certainly tempting to blame 2017 on the shoulder injury that limited him to under 100 innings pitched, but these numbers indicate that the injury (unless it's been with him for years) is not necessarily the only factor driving the decline.
All that said, we're talking about $3 million. I think it's unlikely that Tillman's skill erosion is so extreme that he's now the worst pitcher in baseball at age 29, and more likely that 2017 was simply an extremely terrible and unlucky season. If he even "bounces back" to his 2015 numbers, he'll earn that guaranteed money. With Tillman is almost certainly penciled in as the number 4 starter, though, the Orioles are taking a fairly big risk that 2017 was an aberration and not simply the culmination of a longer-term trend. If they somehow end up signing one of the better free agent pitchers left on the board, this move will probably look better overall than it does now. Even if that doesn't happen, though, there's a modicum of upside here, and I'd certainly like to believe Tillman is a better option than, say, Mike Wright. On February 19, with a rotation spot still open, that's about as good as you can hope for.
Here's the case FOR the Orioles signing Chris Tillman. He's a starting pitcher -- the end. Considering the current makeup of the roster, that might be a large enough bone to throw a hungry, restless fanbase for now.
But, well, there's more to it than that. For a few years, Tillman was pretty good. He never performed well in the fielding independent pitching department, but he threw over 200 innings a couple times. From 2012-2016, he accumulated an ERA of 3.81. In that span, his ERA was lower than his FIP by 0.46 (14th highest among qualified starters). That's a lot, but it's nothing ridiculous. The leader, Chris Young, outperformed his FIP by over a full run (1.06). Miguel Gonzalez's ERA-FIP was 0.70 (fifth best). A pitcher outperforming his FIP significantly indicates a measure of luck, but doing so over time also hints at an ability to limit hard contact, pitch more efficiently with runners on base, induce a lot of fly balls, etc.
Overall, Tillman's production was decent, and the O's could use someone like that because they only have two starting pitchers fans can maybe feel good about. Maybe that MASN promo is right. No respect for Tillman, huh? What gives?
As misleading as that video is, unfortunately, then 2017 happened. Or, to be more precise, the end of the 2016 season and 2017 happened.
For most of 2016, Tillman was having another Tillman-like season. He was on pace to throw 200 innings again, but in late August, he was placed on the disabled list with bursitis in his right shoulder. Before that injury, he had only been on the disabled list one time -- at the beginning of the 2013 season, with a strained left abdominal. He was activated a week later. When Tillman came back in mid-September in 2016, he was able to make four more regular season starts and the results were normal. Tillman put up a 3.79 ERA (and a FIP under 4). Buck Showalter also selected him to start the O's wild card game against the Blue Jays, and he did well enough (4.1 IP, 2 ER) in a crushing, maddening loss.
Some cracks were showing, though. Tillman's four-seam fastball velocity dropped nearly every month during the season:
He also started to move away from the pitch even more. Before 2015, Tillman typically threw his four-seamer about 60% of the time. In 2015, he threw it about 52%. That number then dipped again to about 40% in 2016, while he started to mix in more sinkers and cutters. Tillman's sinker is thrown a tick slower than his four-seamer, and his cutter is in the 86-87 mph range.
Despite being able to finish the 2016 season, the 2017 offseason didn't go well for Tillman. He still felt some discomfort in December, and he received a platelet-rich-plasma injection to help with the rehabilitation. By the time spring came around, he was still feeling soreness in his shoulder and wasn't able to pitch in any spring training games. He was prescribed a cortisone shot in March, and any chance of him being ready for opening day went out the window.
He began the season on the newly installed 10-day disabled list and wasn't activated until May 7. In his return, he threw five innings, allowed six baserunners, and didn't allow a run. It seemed promising, and the O's could certainly use the starting rotation help. Unfortunately, things quickly went south, and that outing ended up being Tillman's only start of the year when he didn't allow a run.
Opponents put numbers on the board against Tillman, many of them crooked. His performance -- 93 innings, 7.84 ERA, 6.93 FIP -- was historically bad. According to Baseball-Reference's Play Index, Tillman became just the fourth player since 1901 to pitch at least 90 innings and post an ERA over 7.80. Another O's pitcher, Scott Erickson in 2000, is also on the list.
In May, Tillman's four-seamer velocity started out even lower than at the end of 2016. In April, his average fastball clocked in at 90.4 mph. That number inched upward through August (aided by Tillman's demotion to the bullpen), but it dipped back down in September. At the end of the year, he finished with an average four-seamer velocity of 91.2 mph -- his lowest since 2011 (90.4), when he made 13 starts.
He also threw even fewer four-seamers, about 34%, while increasing his cutter usage to about 23%. Was he going to ditch the pitch anyway? Was throwing too many four-seamers putting extra stress on Tillman's shoulder? His fluctuating fastball velocity is a constant concern, but this was the first time it seemed tied directly to an injury.
Interestingly enough, Tillman also started taking much longer between pitches in 2016. FanGraphs has a stat called Pace, and it simply measures the time (in seconds) between pitches for hitters and batters. On average, 20 seconds is fast, 21.5 seconds is average, and 23.5 seconds is slow. From 2009-2015, Tillman was average to below average in Pace, ranging from 21.5-22.9 seconds. In 2016, he took over 24 seconds between pitches. In 2017, it jumped to nearly 27 seconds.
What does that mean? Maybe nothing. Maybe, for whatever reason, Tillman has just developed into a slow worker. But besides it being frustrating to watch, perhaps it could be argued that he needed more time in between pitches to recover. Could that be tied to a shoulder that possibly isn't 100%? It's a stretch, but it's worth noting.
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The Orioles need starting pitching. But even more than that, they need quality starting pitching. By the end of last season, the O's had six starting pitchers. Four of them were awful.
If Tillman is truly healthy and back to form, of course the O's should want him back. But even on a low-risk, one-year deal, there's no way of knowing which Tillman is going to show up. The hope is that he's had a normal, pain-free offseason, and that he'll be able to benefit from a full spring of workouts and pitching appearances.
No one knows Tillman like the O's, and maybe that's why they'll eventually bring him back. But considering it wouldn't take that much to sign him, it's a little surprising they haven't done so already. Still, there are other starter choices available, and the O's should go in another direction.
One constant among nearly every MLB offseason is that the Orioles are going to be interested in lots of players. That has no bearing on whether they'll actually follow through, of course. The O's are the department store customer who's not only just browsing, but who really has no desire to purchase anything that's not on the discount rack. If you're familiar with the pros and cons of free agency, that's not a horrible strategy. Still, the annual charade can be exhausting (though mildly amusing).
Just check out which players the Orioles are reportedly "interested in" in the past couple weeks:
There will be more. Still, it makes sense that the Orioles would have interest in the tier of starting pitchers under Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta. Even though O's ownership likely wouldn't be thrilled with another four-year deal near or above the $50 million it took to sign Ubaldo Jimenez, if they want to bring aboard the services of Cobb or Lynn or maybe even Chatwood, it could take something close.
The Orioles always cast a wide net in their free agent search, but it's one that's filled with holes. Dan Duquette would probably tell you the O's target potential bargains who slip through the cracks; as O's fans have learned, those players often slip through for a reason.
The O's have found success using these strategies in the Duquette/Buck Showalter era, but they need real help in the starting rotation. Sometimes you can't get around paying what actual upgrades cost. And, well, if you do, you might end up selling Vargas and Tillman as the main upgrades to a rotation that's destined to fail again - and in perhaps the final seasons that Manny Machado, Adam Jones, and Zach Britton will be in Baltimore.
Chris Tillman served admirably as the Orioles' de facto ace in 2016, but the team will be without him for a little while this season. Shoulder discomfort has kept Tillman out of spring training thus far, and he expects to resume throwing next week. Buck Showalter has indicated that he does not expect Tillman to pitch in the majors in April, and if I've learned anything from pitching injuries, I am afraid to be that optimistic.
Sitting Tillman early in order to let him fully heal and remain effective throughout the season rather than flopping on and off the DL is probably the safest course of action. With that in mind, we should temper expectations for the beginning of the 2017 season. The Orioles hardly have a full starting rotation, much less depth beyond the five pitchers that will regularly work as starters. The pitcher (or pitchers) that will assume Tillman's slot in the rotation in his absence are likely to be worse than him, which makes it harder for the team to win at the same rate they would with a healthy Tillman on the mound.
To estimate the quality of team that will take the field with a replacement pitcher on the mound, and how it compares to the team that takes the field with Tillman pitching, I turned to Joe Peta's base runs team quality formula. This is the process by which we use the base runs formula to estimate how much a team should have scored and allowed given its performance offensively and on the mound, which I have used in the past to evaluate money lines on playoff games,
For this project, I used 2016 statistics to determine how many runs the Orioles would be expected to give up with Tillman pitching compared to how many runs a composite of possible spot starters (Mike Wright, Wade Miley, and Tyler Wilson were my possible replacements). Each of these pitchers had their performances prorated to a full season. Similarly, I prorated season-long performance from the expected nine starting batters to estimate the runs the Orioles would be expected to score.
Using each of these run expectancies in the Pythagorean win formula yields the following team quality matrix:
SP
Team
Base Runs FOR
Base Runs AGAINST
W%+
Tillman
BAL
797.6
679.9
57%
Tillman
BAL @ Home
861.4
679.9
61%
Composite Spot Starter
BAL
797.6
919.4
44%
Composite Spot Starter
BAL @ Home
861.4
919.4
47%
Chris Tillman is effective enough at preventing runs that a composite spot starter would lead a team that plays like a sub-.500 club, while Tillman would be pitching for what looks like a playoff team.
With 24 games in April, Tillman could be replaced by a spot starter in four or five games. In five games with Tillman on the mound, the Orioles should expect to comfortably win three games. Without him, the team would not be expected to win more than two. A small difference to be sure, but a one-win swing out of every five games adds up quickly in a division as competitive as the AL East.
Of course, the Orioles should not rush Tillman back before he's fully healthy and ready to pitch at a high level. Doing otherwise would risk further and more serious injury, and having Tillman pitch injured would probably not yield results much better than his replacements.
Get well soon, Chris Tillman. If this team expects to compete this season in what looks like a tight AL East, it'll need you back, quickly, at full strength.
Dan Duquette doesn't need any extra motivation to go out and search for intriguing or overlooked depth pieces for the roster. Finding and utilizing fringe players has been a staple in the Duquette and Buck Showalter era for the Orioles, and they've excelled at sorting through the options and finding players that fit. And that obviously includes the starting rotation.
The O's rotation is not overly frightening for opposing lineups, and that's even with assuming Chris Tillman's right shoulder heals in time for a mid- or late-April return. As fourth or fifth starter types, Ubaldo Jimenez and Wade Miley can pitch well in stretches, but they're still wild cards. Plus, the O's likely intention for Dylan Bundy to pitch out of the rotation for the entire season is both compelling and concerning. Of the five options right now, only one of the group, Kevin Gausman, brings comfort to fans.
That brings us to the collection of long relievers the Orioles now have behind them. Duquette has assembled a cast of characters who individually are not overly exciting, but together all have the ability to start and pitch in relief. And unsurprisingly, they all have options remaining.
Before the offseason began, the Orioles had an underwhelming group that included Mike Wright, Tyler Wilson, Joe Gunkel, Chris Lee, Parker Bridwell, and Jayson Aquino. In separate moves with the Mets in November and February, the O's purchased pitching depth in Logan Verrett and Gabriel Ynoa. Again, both players have options, so the Mets more or less gave them away. Then, most recently, the Orioles acquired Vidal Nuno from the Dodgers in exchange for minor leaguer Ryan Moseley. That's not a steep price either, but at least it involved an actual exchange of players.
T.J. McFarland, who was designated for assignment to make room for Nuno, was already out of options. So it's not surprising that he was jettisoned, though he still could return and end up in Norfolk.
As you'd expect, all three acquisitions have their flaws. Nuno, the more established of the group, is likely to get more work since he's a lefty, but he has some flyball and home run concerns. Verrett is also not overpowering, and last year he struggled with control (6.5 K/9, 4.2 BB/9 in 91 2/3 innings). Ynoa, meanwhile, is a groundball-inducing type, but he is the worst of the three when it comes to missing bats and still needs to work on his breaking pitches (which need "more consistency," according to Duquette).
Considering the small cost to add them, though, of course they all have their weaknesses. But you can still see the logic here. Instead of opting for an aging starter type like Doug Fister or Jake Peavy, Duquette chose to spread whatever available money around and also maintain roster flexibility, which he greatly values. In addition, the Orioles already had one of those established starter types in Yovani Gallardo (not as old, though) and yet justifiably traded him away to help shore up another position of need (corner outfielder) by hauling in Seth Smith. Starting pitchers aren't cheap for a reason, but even after trading away Gallardo, the Orioles' rotation doesn't seem to be much worse off, if any.
Now, the O's are not positioned not have to rely on Wilson and Wright if/when rotation issues arise. The depth should not be considered great and could easily struggle, but Showalter has shown he can still make things work with a seemingly underwhelming staff.
It didn't seem wise to head into the season having to again depend on Wright and Wilson, who along with Worley finished in the Orioles' top 10 in innings pitched last year. Worley is gone, but Wright and Wilson are not, though Nuno, Ynoa, and Verrett seem to have leapfrogged them in the pecking order. If the Orioles to rely on any of them heavily, trouble could on the horizon, but it's not inconceivable that a few of them could play small, helpful roles.
Yesterday, Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com wrote a post about Chris Tillman that included this cool fun fact right in the headline: "Orioles have won 64 percent of Chris Tillman’s starts since 2012." Hey, that's interesting, if you still care about pitcher wins. Some people do, and that's fine.
Baseball fans and analysts, though, are way past the point of putting much emphasis on pitcher wins. Many good starting pitchers collect plenty of wins, but starters are also reliant on their teammates to score runs and the bullpen behind them to shut the door. Anyway, the war over pitcher wins has already been fought and won by the sabermetric community (basically acknowledged by Melewski), so let's move along.
Later in the post, Melewski sums things up this way:
At a time when pitcher wins are valued less than ever (and probably rightfully so), can we deny that stellar win-loss percentage with Tillman on the mound? He probably flies under the national radar, but in Baltimore, we have seen that his starts consistently outperform the team as a whole.
I'm not sure what he means by denying how much Tillman has won, but it's definitely possible to put too much emphasis on it. And instead of focusing on how much Tillman has won, we can do a better job of comparing his performance to other starting pitchers.
Since 2013, which includes the four seasons in which Tillman has thrown at least 100 innings, here's how he ranks against 76 qualified American League starters:
t-37th in ERA
56th in FIP
51st in K/9
64th in BB/9
t-45th in HR/9
9th in IP
t-3rd in wins
Those are the numbers that a sturdy, but perfectly decent starting pitcher would accumulate. So if you think Tillman "flies under the national radar," then you're probably just talking about the Orioles in general, who somehow have stockpiled the most wins (444) in the American League since 2012 (and the fourth-most overall).
Tillman gets credit for pitching against formidable AL East lineups. He gets credit for being the team's best starting pitcher in the Buck Showalter era. And he gets credit for staying relatively healthy and throwing a bunch of innings. Those things, though, don't make him an ace, or even a great pitcher. With Kevin Gausman's rise, Tillman may not even be the best starter in the O's rotation now (and Gausman was arguably better last season).
But Tillman is a good pitcher, and that's important. The Orioles could use more competent starting pitchers, especially since Tillman and some others are impending free agents. But stop building up Tillman to be more than he is just because the Orioles have been one of the most successful teams since Showalter and Dan Duquette joined the organization. Tillman gets credit for a slice of that success, for sure, but let's not go overboard.
Many Orioles starting pitchers have come and gone during the Orioles' run of success since 2012. Remember Scott Feldman? Freddy Garcia? Heck, remember Zach Britton and Jake Arrieta? Starters, all.
None have Chris Tillman's tenure. Essentially a throw-in in the Erik Bedard/Adam Jones trade, Tillman's become a rotation mainstay. He hasn't always been great; hell, he hasn't always been good. But he is a serviceable enough starting pitcher and has always been worth putting on the mound.
So it's weird to think 2017 could be Tillman's last year in an Orioles uniform. He's a free agent after the season ends, and while he certainly deserves to shop himself around, I think he and the Orioles can find common ground on a contract extension.
The Orioles have an incentive to offer one. Tillman can leave after 2017, but much of their core -- Manny Machado, Adam Jones, and Zach Britton to name a few -- will be around for one last hurrah in 2018. Should the Orioles attempt to compete that year as well, Tillman will help. And after 2018, the team needs pitchers. They have only Kevin Gausman and Logan Verrett, plus question marks in Dylan Bundy, Tyler Wilson, and Mike Wright.
Tillman has an incentive to listen. He's not an ace, so a down 2017 would hurt his value. He's a little old to be hitting the free-agent market as a starting pitcher. Players want to contend and the current Orioles core can do that. I don't know whether he likes playing for Baltimore, but I can't imagine he's so unhappy he would reject an extension out-of-hand. Plus, shoulder injuries can take whole careers with them; Tillman spent time on the DL with bursitis in August.
An agreement might be tough. Tillman's not some ramen-eating rookie who'll take a wildly below-market extension just to set him up for life. He already is: MLB Trade Rumors projects he'll make $10.6M in 2017, which will push his career earnings over $23M.
Performance-wise, Orioles fans know the deal. Tillman is entering his third and final year of arbitration at age 29, which is post-peak for most pitchers. He profiles as starting pitching depth at 1-2 fWAR per year but can reach above-average if his BABIP or LOB% are under control. He hasn't shown he can consistently control either, though. He has remained durable except for the bursitis.
Even though I'm proposing an extension, I doubt one will happen. Tillman will be 29 this year. Since 2010 only one right-handed starting pitcher aged 28-30 has signed away his first few free agent years: Ricky Nolasco with the Marlins in 2010.
This lack of comps means either teams don't want to risk extending starting pitchers who weren't good enough at ages 25-27, or such pitchers have high opinions of themselves and seek free agency at all costs. Likely it's some combination of both: teams may offer conservative extensions hoping they can land the pitcher but he's been waiting for free agency so long, and he's already post-peak, that he wants to get all the money he can.
But for giggles, let's work out what an extension might look like.
Extension Length
A three-year extension feels right to me. This would replace Tillman's last year of arbitration and buy out his first two free agent years -- the first of which the Orioles hope to contend, the second of which the team might punt, meaning Tillman could be trade bait.
Three years matches not only the Orioles' situation, but also the extension Nolasco took in 2010. Younger pitchers, better pitchers, and left-handed pitchers have gotten four or even five years in an extension. Tillman doesn't fall into any of those categories.
Extension Amount
With a length of three years, let's start the negotiations at $34M. I used Tom Tango's WARcels formula to estimate Tillman will be worth 4 wins during the next three years:
2017: 1.6 fWAR
2018: 1.2 fWAR
2019: 0.8 fWAR
That's 3.6 fWAR, but I rounded up to be generous. The formula is an estimate only, but an informed one, and it allows for a starting point. For what it's worth, Steamer projects 1.4 fWAR next year.
At $8.5M per win today, 4 wins is worth $34M. That feels like a good starting point. It's in line with market prices and raises Tillman's AAV to $11.3M. He saves face by not taking a pay cut and the Orioles keep their contention window open a bit longer. Tillman stays on the team through age 31.
Nolasco got $26.5M, but in today's money that's really $30M. Add in WAR inflation at 5% per year and his deal is worth about 3/$39M today. Since Nolasco was a better pitcher (he had two four-win seasons prior to signing) and was a year younger than Tillman is, his extra $5M makes sense.
Tillman's Choice
Let's say the Orioles offer 3/$34M today. If you're Tillman, would you take it?
Consider why you should reject the deal:
You can afford to shop around. You're set to clear $23M in career earnings before hitting free agency.
You're a durable innings-eater with a long track record of average performance and an All-Star appearance.
You have that vaunted 'postseason experience' teams seem to crave.
You have a hint of that 'veteran clubhouse presence' everyone likes.
You triple your guaranteed earnings (assuming a salary of $10.6M in 2017).
You remain on a contender for two years.
If the Orioles want Tillman badly enough for 2018, he'll have leverage to hold out for more money or a fourth year. In this case, the offer might increase to 3/$40M. I doubt Dan Duquette would give a fourth year. That would put Tillman in Justin Verlander / Adam Wainwright territory; each got five years at age 30 and 31 respectively. Tillman would be a year younger then them but nowhere near as talented. Josh Beckett, also much better pitcher, also got a four-year contract at age 30.
Remember: I'm talking about an extension, not a free-agent contract. Assuming 2017 goes well, Tillman could get more on the open market: maybe 3/$45M or even 4/$52M. But he's not on the open market now. From the player's perspective, an extension involves lowering your asking price in exchange for guaranteed employment.
After a terrible 2015, traditional statistics suggest that Chris Tillman had a strong comeback year in 2016. He went 16-6 with a 3.77 ERA (34th out of 74 qualified starters) and threw 172 innings in 30 games started. That’s a strong record, a decent ERA and suggests that the Orioles wouldn’t have made it to the playoffs without him. However, for the fourth consecutive year, Tillman has an FIP over 4. In his best year, 2014, Tillman had an FIP of 4.01 while in his worst year he had an FIP of 4.45 and this year he had an FIP of 4.23 – pretty much right in the middle. Did Tillman have a breakthrough year, or did he roughly do the same as he’s done for the past three years straight?
Tillman’s overall stats don’t suggest a drastic change between 2016 and the rest of this four year sample. His strikeout rate at 19.2% was higher than every other year except for 2013, while his walk rate at 9.2% was the highest in the four year sample. Still, his K-BB% suggested a small improvement over 2014 and 2015 but not as good as he did in 2013. However, my model that I use to predict walk and strikeout rate seems to think that Tillman should have given up more walks and fewer strikeouts in 2016, and paints a consistent picture of decreased performance of strikeout and walk rate over the past four years. In fact, it suggests that Tillman has just about reached the end of his effective life as a major league starter. But it is unquestionable that Tillman’s increased strikeout rate was a reason for his improvement in 2016.
Tillmans’ 2016 BABIP was .283, which was better than his 2015 mark of .295 but worse than his 2013-2014 average of roughly .270. His HR% was 2.7% or roughly the same as he did in 2014 and 2015. However, it was much better than the 3.9% mark he gave up in 2013. As a result, his OPS against of .732 was better than his 2016 mark, about the same as his 2013 mark and worse than his 2014 mark. Like his FIP, this suggests small changes between each of these four seasons rather than drastic changes. It also suggests that his 2016 season was a lot closer to his 2015 season than his 2014 season.
His 2016 OPS allowed on balls put into play was .838 or roughly the equivalent of his rate in 2013 (.869) and 2015 (.847). His 2014 rate of .751 is the clear outlier and was sparked by his BABIP of .268. It seems pretty clear that his 2016 season was considerably closer to his 2015 numbers than his 2014 numbers. It also suggests that Tillman was successful in 2014 in part due to a low BABIP, which he hasn’t been able to replicate in 2013, 2015 or 2016.
Looking at his results with men on the base paths goes a long way to explaining Tillman’s success this season. When batters put the ball into play against him with nobody on base, they had a .898 OPS against him in 2016. This was the worst he’s done in his entire career.
However, with one man on base, batters putting the ball into play against Tillman only had a .760 OPS. That was the lowest allowed result in the four year sample. He gave up a high home run rate, but made up for it with a .233 BABIP.
Likewise, with two or more men on base, Tillman allowed batters putting the ball into play against him to put up only a .728 OPS, which is the second lowest of the four year sample. It’s reasonably close to his numbers in 2014, when opposing batters hit only .717 against him. But it’s far superior to his numbers in 2013 and 2015 when opposing batters had an OPS of roughly .870 in those situations. It would seem that part of the reason why he’s done so well is because he got a significant amount of luck with runners on the base paths. Not giving up a home run in those situations sure helped.
Indeed, in the three years that Tillman has been successful, he’s had an 81%, 76.7% and 77.2% LOB% but in 2015 he had a 68.2% LOB%. His best chance of being successful is if his defense can rally behind him and make sure that he strands a lot of runners.
Going forward, I think there are two ways to look at Tillman. The first way is to call him a proven winner because he’s gone 56-30 the past four years and has won at least ten games each season. Some may argue that the Orioles should keep him because he’s ultimately won the past three of four years and that’s all that matters. A number of teams would be interested in adding a pitcher with these stats.
The second way to look at him is to call him an overachiever that has been a bit more fortunate than his stuff suggests and is due for a collapse. If so, the Orioles certainly shouldn’t extend him and should even consider trading him this offseason. There is limited talent available via free agency this offseason and the Orioles may be able to convince a team to significantly overpay for a pitcher with a strong track record.
With an almost maxed-out budget, I’d lean towards the second route. I question whether Tillman can be effective and the Orioles already have six starters. Tillman is almost definitely one of the best starters that the Orioles have, but if he regresses then he won’t be able to help the club much. For a small market club, paying big bucks to Jimenez, Miley and Gallardo have consequences. The Orioles will need to find a way to save money somewhere if they’re going to fill their holes at corner outfield and catcher and trading away one of their six starters would help.
I don’t think that Tillman really improved much from 2015 to 2016 and suspect that his comeback year in 2016 is largely due to luck. Given the Orioles crowded rotation situation and their lack of resources, I’d look into trading Tillman to the Royals. The Royals need another starter and will have a number of high-profile players become free agents next year. Given their situation, they should be willing to trade prospects for the best starting pitcher they can get and I suspect that they’d be interested in adding a pitcher with Tillman’s traditional statistics.
Chris Tillman hasn't pitched since August 20. He hasn't pitched well since August 11. Darren O'Day also hasn't made an appearance since mid-August. And yet, despite missing two of their most effective pitchers, the Orioles currently sit one game out in the American League East and one game up in the second wild card slot.
The overall struggles of the O's rotation is well-worn territory. As of right now, O's starters combined are t-24th in ERA (4.83) and 25th in FIP (4.69). But without Tillman in the rotation, things have not fallen apart. Over the past 14 days, O's starters are 14th in ERA and 17th in FIP. And over the past 30 days (which includes nine innings by Tillman), O's starters are 17th in ERA and 21st in FIP. Considering the unpredictable nature of a chunk of the rotation, those are quite acceptable results. And while far from dominant, the rotation has done enough to keep the Orioles in games.
The starter who has stepped up the most? Kevin Gausman. In the past month, he's made six starts and posted an ERA near 2 with a FIP near 3. As Ryan Romano noted over at MASNsports.com, Gausman has been particularly adept at limiting damage with runners on base.
Jimenez has made three starts since rejoining the rotation and hasn't looked very Ubaldo-like. Perhaps that's because he threw a stunning and much-needed complete game on Labor Day against the Rays. He's mostly pitched to contact, limiting both strikeouts (5.4 K/9) and walks (1.25 BB/9) while running a BABIP of only .153. Jimenez seems to be receiving some good fortune that he lacked while recording a very high BABIP early in the season, but good luck extrapolating any kind of long-term meaning in his recent performance. Just enjoy Good Ubaldo while he's here, because his success could be fleeting (though not meaningless!).
It's also not hard to see where the O's have missed O'Day. Zach Britton has been amazing all season, but Brad Brach has taken a step back after the all-star break. That doesn't make Brach ineffective; it just means he's not as good as he looked in the first half, which you probably figured anyway. But it has mattered without O'Day around.
Mychal Givens has still been deployed often and has been useful, though he's maybe not as dominant as you hoped (especially if you're greedy). One bright spot has been Donnie Hart, who has yet to allow a run despite a strikeout rate slightly over 5. That's hard to do! Still, the O's clearly need O'Day, who adds one more reliable arm to the Britton, Brach, and Givens group. Hart isn't there yet, and who knows what Tommy Hunter has left in the tank.
Losing Tillman for any significant stretch was supposed to be a death knell for the 2016 Orioles, but it hasn't turned out that way. The Orioles are in the thick of the playoff race, and it's anticipated that Tillman will come off the disabled list and pitch on Sunday. Obviously there's no guarantee that Tillman returns completely healthy or effective. Still, the O's have shown that for weeks at a time they can win games without him. They're just hoping they don't have to do that anymore very soon.
Chris Tillman is indeed headed to the disabled list. He received a cortisone injection in his shoulder to combat the discomfort, but the injury is apparently not severe enough to warrant an MRI. Tillman could be back to full strength in a couple weeks, or perhaps not. The Orioles and Buck Showalter don't seem overly concerned, but that doesn't always mean a whole lot. You know better than to just believe everything a manager says.
So out with Tillman, and in steps Ubaldo Jimenez -- or, at least, he'll get the first crack at replacing Tillman. There's a lot of hyperbole surrounding Tillman (comparing him to Mike Mussina? Come on), but he's meant a lot to a starting rotation that has a few holes. Tillman has been the team's best starter this season, and now the O's will need to go on and win without him for a while.
They can do that, by the way. Any team can get by without a single player for a couple of weeks, or even longer than that. Weird things happen in baseball. The Dodgers can win a bunch of games without Clayton Kershaw. It's not advised, but it does happen. And Tillman is certainly nowhere near Kershaw. It's easy to look at the performance of the O's rotation in the first half of the season and then wonder how they're even still in the playoff race.
Oh, yeah -- so, Ubaldo is back. Jimenez hasn't started a game since the O's July 28 makeup game in Minnesota against the Twins. In those five innings of work, he allowed just one run and struck out eight, but he allowed eight baserunners (five hits, three walks). That's typical Ubaldo stuff, except with less runs scoring. If the O's get that kind of performance in the next couple of starts, they'd be thrilled. Since that outing, Jimenez has only pitched three times out of the bullpen at a few innings per appearance. It's not surprising that the O's would be trying to hide someone with an ERA near 7 and a walk rate again over 5.5.
You probably don't need to hear yet again that Jimenez has had some bad fortune on balls in play and that he's not this terrible. That is true, but the O's are in a tight race for the AL East crown, and if not that, then the consolation prize of a wild card spot. We're not talking about Jimenez's long-term outlook (hint: not good), just about what he can do for the next couple of weeks (if that). So the sympathy probably won't be there for someone with a two-run gap between his ERA and FIP.
The O's could use a couple of good outings from Jimenez. But also from Wade Miley (who pitches tonight and has been terrible) and Yovani Gallardo (who pitches Friday and has also been bad). Everyone who has started a game for the Orioles this year not named Tillman, Gausman, and Bundy has an ERA of 4.50 or above in those starts. The O's have been dealing with these concerns all year. Just be glad that Bundy is filling in admirably, or else things would, amazingly, be much worse.
Chris Tillman's shoulder is hurting, and that's bad for the Orioles. For now, he may only be required to miss one start. Clearly that's what the Orioles are hoping.
Tillman has had quite a bounce-back year (arguably the best of his career), and it's come when the O's need him most. Tillman was awful last year, and yet the O's said goodbye to both Wei-Yin Chen via free agency and then Miguel Gonzalez at the end of spring training and proceeded anyway with mostly in-house solutions (plus Yovani Gallardo). That left an early season combination of Tillman, Kevin Gausman, Gallardo (pre-injury), Ubaldo Jimenez, Tyler Wilson, Mike Wright, and Vance Worley receiving starts. Tillman has been the best of that group by far, and Gausman is the only other to perform like an above-average starter.
It would be tough to ask for much more than what Tillman has provided, and he's a big reason why the O's are still in the race for first place in the AL East. There's no question that losing him for any extended period of time would be a tough pill to swallow. It seems likely that he'll be back soon, but lingering shoulder pain isn't anything to gloss over.
And yet, Tillman's absence wouldn't necessarily lead to a collapse or an end to the Orioles' postseason chances. I see two reasons to stay optimistic: Dylan Bundy and an improved offense.
Last night's start isn't the best example, but Bundy has far exceeded expectations this season. Many fans (myself included) were simply hoping that Bundy would stay healthy and just pitch reasonably well out of the bullpen. He did that, seemingly improving each month, and then entered the rotation after the all-star break and hasn't looked back.
It's easy to marvel at Bundy's ability to both make it all the way back to the majors and pitch well. Still, the O's may also have painted themselves into a corner by inserting him into the rotation so soon. Perhaps the O's limited Bundy's innings and pitches at the beginning of the season specifically with the intent of turning him loose as a starter, but even if they wanted to remove him from the rotation, they wouldn't be able to do that now unless they drop out of the race or he gets hurt. That doesn't have to be a bad thing, but it's impossible, at least right now, to not be worried about Bundy's long-term health every time you watch him pitch.
Adding Bundy to the rotation seemed like a desperate move, but it's undoubtedly given the rotation a shot in the arm. Even after dropping both games at home to the Red Sox, the O's are still in the division race, and Bundy will play a part in what happens in the next few weeks.
With Bundy and the serviceable Wade Miley, the O's are at least better positioned to deal with Tillman being out for a while than they were before the break. Worley would likely take Tillman's place, or perhaps Jimenez. No one wants to see Jimenez in the rotation again, but it's not like someone like Gallardo is pitching all that much better. It's still surprising to see the pass Gallardo gets with fans when he's pitching just as poorly as Jimenez did in 2014.
The rotation was terrible in the first half of the season, though, and the Orioles still performed well as a team. It's difficult to repeat that level of success, but it's at least possible. And a big part of that was the team's ability to score runs. Overall, the rotation has been better in the second half, but the offense has been stagnant. The (reasonable) excuse early on was a few of the team's players (Matt Wieters, Chris Davis, etc.) were battling illness after the break, and that led to some offensive issues. But the poor results have been staggering.
The O's scored 5.1 runs per game in the first half. So far in the second half, they have scored 3.5. And after posting a collective wRC+ of 111 in the first half, the O's have a wRC+ of only 76 in the second half. Four regulars -- Jonathan Schoop (56 wRC+), Davis (52), Wieters (50), and Mark Trumbo (43) -- have been particularly bad. Nolan Reimold has a wRC+ of 7 in 54 plate appearances. (What exactly does Reimold bring to this team? He's not a platoon bat, and he's maybe an average defensive outfielder. I've always rooted for Reimold to recover physically and play well, but it's time to move on.)
Things can always get worse -- remember, we're talking about what happens if the O's best starting pitcher misses multiple starts -- but you'd have to figure the O's lineup is due for a turnaround very soon. But if not, and the meager results continue, the O's chances won't look that good even with Tillman's shoulder all ready to go and him firing on all cylinders.
The above is rather self explanatory except for VB, which is Victory Bonus. An additional 12 points is given to a player whose team wins their division. It has worked pretty well over the years.
AL
RNK
NL
RNK
2011
Justin Verlander
1st
Clayton Kershaw
1st
2012
David Price
1st
R.A. Dickey
1st
2013
Max Scherzer
1st
Clayton Kershaw
1st
2014
Corey Kluber
1st
Clayton Kershaw
1st
2015
Dallas Keuchel
2nd
Jake Arrieta
1st
The only miss in the past five years was Dallas Keuchel who the system saw as coming in second place. Pretty nifty. As it stands, the Orioles have two players in the top four and it appears whichever team wins the AL East will be pushing someone over the top.
The safe money is that the Cy Young Award will go to J.A. Happ, Rick Porcello, or Chris Tillman depending on who wins the AL East. The dark horse is Zach Britton simply because relief pitchers have a particularly difficult time winning this award and more recent voters will look at WAR calculations and disregard Britton entirely.
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Last Year The Orioles Had A LOB Problem
by Joe Wantz
Last week’s release of Miguel Gonzalez marked the end of his mostly successful career as a Baltimore Oriole. From 2012-2015, Gonzalez was third amongst Orioles starters in ERA and inning pitched and came into 2016 as a presumptive member of the starting five. Those solid numbers, however, masked frightening peripheral stats. Gonzalez posted the worst FIP and xFIP of any pitcher who started more than 20 games for the Orioles in that time period, and the wheels began to totally fall off in the second half of 2015.
How, then, was Gonzalez able to be a steady, if unspectacular, starting pitcher for three and a half years? While there are a few possible answers, one of the most glaring issues was Gonzalez’s left on base percentage (LOB%). When runners got on base against Gonzalez, especially in 2014, they almost never scored. That season, Gonzalez posted a LOB mark of 85.5%, which would have led the major leagues if he pitched enough innings to qualify. For comparison’s sake, Clayton Kershaw stranded 81% runners in 2014. Clayton Kershaw was worse at stranding baserunners than Miguel Gonzalez, and not by a small margin.
While this is striking enough, considering the massive skills gap between Gonzalez and someone like Kershaw, it is not an outlier in the Orioles rotation. From 2012-2014, the starters had the seventh best LOB% in all of baseball despite having a generally underwhelming set of arms. They were able to accomplish this despite ranking in the bottom 10 in the league in line drive rate, ground ball rate (dead last), fly ball rate (also the worst in baseball), K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 (last yet again). They also had the third largest gap between staff ERA and FIP of any team in baseball.
Needless to say, this is not the profile of a good starting staff, much less the starting rotation for the team with the most wins in the American League during that time period. Yet, that was exactly what happened. And while LOB% may not be the only reason for their surprising success, it certainly was a driving factor. No team at the top of the rankings in LOB% had a higher WHIP than the Orioles. Essentially, the Os were putting more runners on base than elite pitching staffs like the Nationals but stranding them at the same rate. So, while the Os were putting a ton of runners on, they were able to keep them from scoring.
A lot of that success likely came from an elite defense, which can be extremely helpful in helping pitchers post low batting average on balls in play (BABIP) numbers. The defense fell off a bit in 2015, perhaps correlating with the disaster that was the starting rotation, which went from stranding 77.6% of baserunners (second in baseball) in 2014 to 72.3% (17th best) in 2015. The two biggest culprits in this fall were Chris Tillman and, you guessed it, Miguel Gonzalez. Tillman saw his LOB% drop from 76.7% to 68.2%, with Gonzalez’s fall an even more precipitous 85.5% to 73.1%.
So, what does this mean for 2016? It is certainly reasonable to believe that Tillman can bounce back to being at least the league average mark of about 72%. If Tillman had the exact same stats as last year, but with that LOB mark, his ERA would fall from 4.99 to 4.58. That would certainly be a start, especially if he can get back to around the 200 inning mark. His Opening Day performance, though abbreviated, looked like a great start in that regard. It is likely not realistic for Tillman to maintain an average velocity of 93.1 MPH like he did on Monday, but an increase in his strikeout rate will lessen the overall need for an elite LOB%.
The rest of the current staff did not have the kind of massive change in LOB% that we saw from Tillman and Gonzalez last season, though it is worth noting that Yovani Gallardo had one of his best LOB% seasons in 2015. The rotation turnover that has occurred since the beginning of Spring Training (Gonzalez released, Kevin Gausman on the DL, Mike Wright, Vance Worley, Tyler Wilson all potentially making April starts) makes it difficult to forecast whether 2015 was an anomaly or a sign of things to come this season. That said, with a healthy Jonathan Schoop, JJ Hardy, and Matt Wieters up the middle, along with the emergence of Rule 5 pick Joey Rickard in left, perhaps a return to the defensive greatness (and resulting low BABIP and high strand rate) of 2014 may once again be in order.
