What to Make of Gabriel Ynoa

Joe Reisel's Archives

While the play of Austin Hays and Chance Sisco have provided Orioles' fans some hope for the future, the past couple of Gabriel Ynoa's starts have also been positive. On September 15, at Yankee Stadium, Ynoa pitched 4 1/3 innings, giving up 3 runs (2 earned) - which doesn't seem all that impressive until you compare it to some of the other Orioles' starts in that series. And on September 21, Ynoa pitched eight innings against Tampa Bay and gave up only 1 run; an impressive outing by any standard.

People who follow the Norfolk Tides are quite likely stunned by Ynoa's performances, because Ynoa spent much of the 2017 season at Norfolk and, for much of the season, was on the pace for a memorable season. Unfortunately, it was going to be a memorably awful season, a season we share with interns when they note that a starting pitcher is having a bad year. (The gold standard for those seasons in the Orioles' Era is Brandon Erbe's 2010, in which he went 0-10 with a 5.73 ERA. In my first year as a Tides' datacaster, the Tides were still affiliated with the New York Mets, and Jason Scobie went 1-11, 7.91.) After Ynoa's July 7 start, his record was 1-8, 7.64; and I was wondering how Ynoa could have been a Top Ten prospect in the Mets' organization.

However, following his July 7 start - which was his last AAA start before the all-star break, for what that's worth - Ynoa pitched much better. He went 5-1, 2.87; which was enough to bring his final season line to 6-9, 5.25. That's not a good year by any means, but it's not memorably awful. This saga, and his late-season major-league performance, brings up several questions, the biggest one being "Can Gabriel Ynoa be a useful starting pitcher for the Orioles in 2018?"

Of the 45 Tides games I saw in 2017, Gabriel Ynoa was the starting pitcher in six - four in his "bad" first part and two in his "good" second part. In the rest of this article, I will look at some of the details of those six starts.

First, the basic "box score" pitching lines:

Date	Opp	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	BFP
Apr 29	Syracuse	6 1/3	6	2	2	1	4	25
May 31	Pawtucket	4 1/3	7	3	3	0	2	20
Jun 27	Louisville	3 2/3	5	5	5	2	2	18
Jul 2	Durham	6 2/3	7	6	4	2	3	27
Jul 28	Columbus	6 2/3	8	5	5	0	4	28
Aug 19	Toledo	7	5	3	3	0	5	26

All of the column headers should be self-explanatory except the last, which is "Batters Faced Pitcher" - the number of batters he faced. The April 29 start was his only good start before the all-star break, and the July 28 start was really his only bad start after the all-star break. The two most interesting things are (1) he had good control with only five walks in these six starts and (2) when he pitched well, he was able to work into the seventh inning and go through the lineup three times with consistency. The Tides rarely let a starting pitcher throw 100 pitches, and Ynoa threw that many pitches only in the April 29 start. So, when Ynoa's pitching well, he's efficient.

Next, I'll take a look at the results of the plate appearances against Ynoa. I don't differentiate between batters reaching base and batters being retired on batted balls here. Also, there are a couple of bunt ground balls that I arbitrarily lumped in with other ground balls, and the distinction between "fly balls" and "line drives" is somewhat arbitrary.

Date	Ground Ball	Line Drive	Fly Ball	Walk	Strikeout
Apr 24	6	4	10	1	4
May 31	11	2	5	0	2
Jun 27	6	2	6	2	2
Jul 2	8	4	12	2	3
Jul 28	11	1	12	0	4
Aug 19	6	3	12	0	5

We can see that Ynoa is not a ground-ball pitcher; more balls are are hit in the air than on the ground. To the extent that we can draw any conclusions from six starts, it appears that he might be more effective when balls are hit in the air than on the ground. That works well in Harbor Park with its expansive power alleys, but may be less likely to work in Camden Yards.

Finally, I'll look at Ynoa's pitch results:

Date	Ball	Called Strike	Swinging Strike	Foul	In Play
Apr 24	37	19	9	15	20
May 31	21	14	5	11	18
Jun 27	25	14	5	22	14
Jul 2	31	17	7	12	25
Jul 28	32	17	8	16	24
Aug 19	27	14	16	10	22

The striking thing here is that, with the exception of August 19, Ynoa got few swinging strikes and many foul balls. This is consistent with his reputation as a pitcher with okay but not great stuff. Batters are able to make contact with his pitches, even if by fouling them off. But, on the other hand, as we noted above, he's able to go deep into games with fewer than 100 pitches. Give that, he's unlikely that the batters are fouling off good pitches, lengthening at-bats and running up pitch counts. Rather, it appears that Ynoa is pitching to contact, relying on his defense to get outs.

It's almost impossible for Ynoa to be as bad as he was in the first half of 2017. From 2012 through 2016, Baseball America ranked Ynoa among the top 20 prospects in the Mets' organization. That's more in line with his post All-Star break performance. If we assume that his first half was the aberration, then Gabriel Ynoa would be reasonable candidate for a fifth starter job. He's got a chance to hold that job, but he'd have to pitch well our of the gate and it's rare for pitchers like him to do so.

Orioles Assemble Interesting, Flexible Pitching Depth

Dan Duquette doesn't need any extra motivation to go out and search for intriguing or overlooked depth pieces for the roster. Finding and utilizing fringe players has been a staple in the Duquette and Buck Showalter era for the Orioles, and they've excelled at sorting through the options and finding players that fit. And that obviously includes the starting rotation.

The O's rotation is not overly frightening for opposing lineups, and that's even with assuming Chris Tillman's right shoulder heals in time for a mid- or late-April return. As fourth or fifth starter types, Ubaldo Jimenez and Wade Miley can pitch well in stretches, but they're still wild cards. Plus, the O's likely intention for Dylan Bundy to pitch out of the rotation for the entire season is both compelling and concerning. Of the five options right now, only one of the group, Kevin Gausman, brings comfort to fans.

That brings us to the collection of long relievers the Orioles now have behind them. Duquette has assembled a cast of characters who individually are not overly exciting, but together all have the ability to start and pitch in relief. And unsurprisingly, they all have options remaining.

Before the offseason began, the Orioles had an underwhelming group that included Mike Wright, Tyler Wilson, Joe Gunkel, Chris Lee, Parker Bridwell, and Jayson Aquino. In separate moves with the Mets in November and February, the O's purchased pitching depth in Logan Verrett and Gabriel Ynoa. Again, both players have options, so the Mets more or less gave them away. Then, most recently, the Orioles acquired Vidal Nuno from the Dodgers in exchange for minor leaguer Ryan Moseley. That's not a steep price either, but at least it involved an actual exchange of players.

T.J. McFarland, who was designated for assignment to make room for Nuno, was already out of options. So it's not surprising that he was jettisoned, though he still could return and end up in Norfolk.

As you'd expect, all three acquisitions have their flaws. Nuno, the more established of the group, is likely to get more work since he's a lefty, but he has some flyball and home run concerns. Verrett is also not overpowering, and last year he struggled with control (6.5 K/9, 4.2 BB/9 in 91 2/3 innings). Ynoa, meanwhile, is a groundball-inducing type, but he is the worst of the three when it comes to missing bats and still needs to work on his breaking pitches (which need "more consistency," according to Duquette).

Considering the small cost to add them, though, of course they all have their weaknesses. But you can still see the logic here. Instead of opting for an aging starter type like Doug Fister or Jake Peavy, Duquette chose to spread whatever available money around and also maintain roster flexibility, which he greatly values. In addition, the Orioles already had one of those established starter types in Yovani Gallardo (not as old, though) and yet justifiably traded him away to help shore up another position of need (corner outfielder) by hauling in Seth Smith. Starting pitchers aren't cheap for a reason, but even after trading away Gallardo, the Orioles' rotation doesn't seem to be much worse off, if any.

Now, the O's are not positioned not have to rely on Wilson and Wright if/when rotation issues arise. The depth should not be considered great and could easily struggle, but Showalter has shown he can still make things work with a seemingly underwhelming staff.

It didn't seem wise to head into the season having to again depend on Wright and Wilson, who along with Worley finished in the Orioles' top 10 in innings pitched last year. Worley is gone, but Wright and Wilson are not, though Nuno, Ynoa, and Verrett seem to have leapfrogged them in the pecking order. If the Orioles to rely on any of them heavily, trouble could on the horizon, but it's not inconceivable that a few of them could play small, helpful roles.