Darren O'Day's Small Change in Slider Use

Darren O’Day has been an integral part of the Orioles bullpen since he was acquired prior to the start of the 2012 season. From 2012 through 2015, he pitched to an ERA of 1.92 over 263 innings, and was worth 4.9 wins according to Fangraphs. That’s really good. And as Matt Kremnitzer pointed out in a post before the season, O’Day does even better according to Baseball Reference’s version of WAR, which is based on run prevention rather than FIP numbers. Baseball Reference has O’Day at 9.6 WAR over that same time period. That’s outstanding.

Following that run of dominance, O’Day submitted an injury filled stinker of a 2016 season (at least in comparison to his lofty standards) in the first year of a 4 year, $31 million deal. After 22.1 innings pitched in 2017, O’Day appears to have returned to his role as relief ace, non-closer division. While his overall numbers may not match what one may think of when they think “relief ace”, much of that is a result of a couple bad outings at the very beginning of the season. That 3.63ERA? Five of the nine earned runs he’s given up came in his 2nd and 3rd appearance. That 12.0% walk rate? Five of his 11 walks came in his first two games. That 66.4% left on base rate? In all but 4 of the 23 games he has pitched, he has had a LOB% of 100%, and 2 of those 4 games were (you guessed it) his second and third appearance of the season. So after a couple of rough outings (mostly the appearance April 9th), O’Day looks (for the most part) like the O’Day of old.

Darren O'Day (photo via Keith Allison)

But he’s not exactly the O’Day of old. Yes, he’s getting ground balls (50.0%) at the highest rate since 2008, but it’s his slider caught my attention. According to the linear weight pitch values at Fangraphs, O’Day has thrown the 8th most effective slider in the majors this year (minimum of 20 innings pitched). While his slider Pitch Value of 6.7 runs above average is not a career high (yet), his wSL/C (standardized Pitch Value per 100 pitch) of 3.82 runs above average would be a career high by 1.67 runs. So O’Day’s slider seems to be working more effectively than ever, but according to Brooks Baseball, it’s not how much he's throwing it (overall usage has essentially been the same the last 4 seasons). And it’s not the movement on the pitch either, as both the vertical and horizontal movement appear to be trending in the wrong direction so far this season.

So how has it been so effective? It could be from a change in use of the pitch, particularly to left-handed batters. While O’Day has not been terrible against left handed batters over the course of his career (wOBA against of .299), he’s definitely been better against right-handers (.248 wOBA). In 2017 however, he’s so far managed a reverse platoon split, holding left handed batters to a wOBA of .212. Now, he’s only faced, 36 left-handed batters and they have a .177 BABIP against him, so he’s very likely gotten the benefit of some good fortune. However, he’s also striking them out 11.1% more often than he is right-handers while inducing more soft contact from left-handers than ever before (up 13% from career levels).

I mentioned earlier that O’Day’s overall use of the slider hasn’t really changed this year. However, if you only look at his slider usage versus left-handers, you’ll see almost a 7% increase from last year.

Darren O'Day Pitch Use Versus LHB (via Brooks Baseball)

But he’s not only throwing more of them to left-handers, he’s throwing them much more early in the count, as you can see from tables below.

Darren O'Day Pitch Usage from 2008 to 2016 (via Brooks Baseball)

Darren O'Day Pitch Usage in 2017 (via Brooks Baseball)

Combine that with the fact that O’Day is throwing that slider against left-handed batters for strikes at a rate almost 16% higher than he previously has during his career, and we potentially see a deliberate adjustment combined with successful execution.

Darren O'Day Pitch Outcomes Versus LHB from 2008 to 2016 (via Brooks Baseball)



Darren O'Day Pitch Outcomes Versus LHB in 2017 (via Brooks Baseball)

Now it’s entirely possible that this is all small sample noise and that this was not a deliberate adjustment, just the whims of natural variation. We are essentially looking at only 1/3 of a relief pitcher’s season, boiled down even further to splits within that relief season. However, the appearance of O’Day’s slight change in the usage of his slider to left-handers combined with the fact that he’s throwing it for more strikes has not only been interesting, but it has also so far been effective for him. And whether or not this was by design or just a coincidence, O’Day is once again a key member of the an Orioles bullpen that will need to carry the load for a sub-par starting rotation. Here’s hoping he can keep it up, because he’ll likely need to for Baltimore’s season to be successful.

Do the Orioles Have a Bullpen Problem Brewing?

The bullpen has, since 2012, been a constant for the Orioles. From 2012-2016, it ranked second in fWAR, third in ERA, tenth in FIP, and first in wins, and fifth in innings pitched. Those are obviously stellar numbers, and the consistency of the pen is, without question, one of the biggest reasons that the Orioles posted the most wins in the American League during that time period.

This season, however, the bullpen has been much more pedestrian. While it once again leads baseball in victories with 8, the pen finds itself out of the top 10 in all the statistics in which they had previously been dominant. To be fair, much of this decline is directly related to last weekend's series against the Yankees. In 16 innings, the bullpen gave up 14 earned runs and potentially gave away two crucial early season victories. As a result, Vidal Nuno and Logan Verrett were sent down, and the O's once again turned to Mike Wright as a fresh arm.

Some of this can surely be attributed to Zach Britton missing two weeks with an arm injury, but Britton himself looked pretty shaky in April. After an historic 2016, he has struggled out of the gate, posting an unsightly 1.857 WHIP and striking out two fewer batters per 9 innings than he did last season during the month of April. Brad Brach filled in admirably as closer, but even he had a meltdown on Friday night in a game in which the Orioles blew leads of 9-1 and 11-4. Britton came off the disabled list and pitched in a non-save situation against the Red Sox last night and did not look good again, giving up a walk and a hit (as well as getting the most bizarre triple play you'll ever see).

Now, it's not like the pen has been bad, but there are potentially a few warning signs. The bullpen is collectively walking over 4 hitters per 9, nearly a full walk per 9 more than 2012-2016. Of greater concern, though, has to be the two year decline of Darren O'Day. After 4 brilliant seasons that earned him a $31 million deal, O'Day has dealt with injuries and struggled to a 4.25 ERA, 4.31 FIP, and 1.323 WHIP in his last 42 innings pitched.

Certainly, the Orioles have other good options, though Mychal Givens and Donnie Hart also struggled last night against the Red Sox, but the bullpen without a dominant O'Day has less room for error than in previous seasons. The encouraging signs for the O's are that the pen is still elite at limiting hard contact and stranding baserunners, which at this point seems to be an innate skill for all Orioles pitchers, and the fact that they are very stingy with the home run ball. It seems likely that Britton will return to being an elite pitcher (assuming he is healthy) and that the recent implosions will not become the norm. Hopefully.

Darren O'Day: Underappreciated Relief Weapon

There are at least a few things about the Orioles that should have you excited for the upcoming season. In no particular order: Manny Machado, healthy versions of Chris Davis and Adam Jones, Kevin Gausman, Dylan Bundy's first year as a full-time starter, a lineup that should hit plenty of dingers, Hyun Soo Kim's sophomore MLB season, and more. It's hard to top anything Machado does, but here's another big one: a bullpen that has a chance to be sensational.

Last year, the trio of Zach Britton, Brad Brach, and Mychal Givens was outstanding. They should again be a nasty group to deal with. Britton put the finishing touches on one of the very best relief seasons of all time. Brach started out on fire and made the all-star team, although he slumped a bit in the second half. And Givens showed how useful he can be, especially if his numbers improve against left-handed batters.

Overall, the bullpen finished first in the American League in ERA (3.40), t-second in strand rate (77.3%), sixth in groundball rate (46.3%), and first in win probability added, all the while finishing just 11th best in strikeouts per nine and 12th best in walks per nine.

One of the most interesting things about the bullpen's outstanding performance in 2016 is they accomplished what they did without a healthy and effective Darren O'Day (though Bundy gave them a nice boost for a while). After throwing at least 62 innings in the previous four seasons, O'Day only threw half that in 2016 as he battled two injuries.

O'Day went on the disabled list in early June because of a strained right hamstring, and he wasn't activated until late July. Then in mid-August, he again headed to the disabled list, this time due to a strained right rotator cuff. Apparently O'Day tried to pitch through the pain, which understandably did not help. When he returned about a month later, he pitched a few more times and started to resemble the O'Day fans had come to expect. He appeared in the O's now infamous wild card loss to the Blue Jays, recording five outs while facing just four batters (thanks to this enormous double play).

There's almost no chance Britton can duplicate his truly amazing season, and maybe Brach will take a step backward as well. But if O'Day is anything close to his 2012-2015 self, the Orioles will have something special on their hands. In his injury-plagued 2016, O'Day posted a 3.77 ERA and a 4.57 FIP. Yet from 2012-2015, O'Day's ERA dropped every year (2.28, 2.18, 1.70, 1.52), and his RA/9 nearly did as well (2.28, 2.32, 1.83, 1.79).

Because he doesn't always post great strikeout rates and isn't a groundball-inducing machine, O'Day doesn't typically put up wonderful fielding pitching independent numbers. That's a large reason why in his first four years in Baltimore, Baseball-Reference has him worth nearly 10 wins above replacement, and FanGraphs pegs him closer to five. If you want to see just how amazing O'Day was in that time span, just look at the following table from Baseball-Reference's indispensable Play Index:

Results

Rk	Player	ERA+ ▼	IP	From	To	ERA	FIP	OPS	OPS+
1	Craig Kimbrel	239	250.2	2012	2015	1.58	1.80	.462	33
2	Koji Uehara	227	215.0	2012	2015	1.84	2.34	.514	38
3	Darren O'Day	214	263.0	2012	2015	1.92	3.08	.580	59
4	Aroldis Chapman	206	255.2	2012	2015	1.90	1.74	.486	39
5	Greg Holland	184	241.0	2012	2015	2.24	2.09	.569	57
6	Tony Watson	166	277.2	2012	2015	2.24	3.05	.573	64
7	Kelvin Herrera	164	282.1	2012	2015	2.52	3.09	.619	70
8	J.P. Howell	164	205.1	2012	2015	2.24	3.55	.610	76
9	Jonathan Papelbon	163	261.1	2012	2015	2.38	3.03	.599	69
10	Joaquin Benoit	161	257.2	2012	2015	2.45	3.36	.586	63
11	Brad Ziegler	158	276.2	2012	2015	2.50	3.44	.595	67
12	Kenley Jansen	157	259.1	2012	2015	2.33	2.10	.536	55
13	Huston Street	155	217.1	2012	2015	2.32	3.51	.585	69
14	Cody Allen	152	238.1	2012	2015	2.64	2.73	.637	76
15	Santiago Casilla	150	229.2	2012	2015	2.39	3.67	.618	80

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/22/2017.

Some of the very best relievers in baseball are on that list. The Yankees just gave Aroldis Chapman $86 million over five years. Kenley Jansen received a contract for $6 million less over that same time frame. O'Day isn't in their class in terms overpowering the opposition and just reaching back and throwing the ball by hitters. But he gets outs -- plenty of them -- when he's healthy. That matters.

Before last season, the Orioles rewarded O'Day with a four-year, $31 million contract. So they clearly value his work. But you still get the sense that he's undervalued -- that Beyond The Box Score article linked above didn't even mention O'Day -- and even a bullpen that already projects to be excellent can use another relief weapon.

You can't predict health, and at 34 years old, O'Day is the eldest member of the O's relief options. Still, during an Orioles' spring training filled with frequent updates on injuries to players like Chris Tillman, Britton, J.J. Hardy, Seth Smith, Michael Bourn, and others, O'Day has fortunately been spared. If O'Day is indeed able to get back to his dominant, freewheeling, elevated-fastball and frisbee-slider-tossing ways, opposing batters will be in even more trouble against the Orioles in late-game situations.

Photo via Keith Allison

Without Tillman And O'Day (For Now), O's Sit One Game Back In The East

Chris Tillman hasn't pitched since August 20. He hasn't pitched well since August 11. Darren O'Day also hasn't made an appearance since mid-August. And yet, despite missing two of their most effective pitchers, the Orioles currently sit one game out in the American League East and one game up in the second wild card slot.

The overall struggles of the O's rotation is well-worn territory. As of right now, O's starters combined are t-24th in ERA (4.83) and 25th in FIP (4.69). But without Tillman in the rotation, things have not fallen apart. Over the past 14 days, O's starters are 14th in ERA and 17th in FIP. And over the past 30 days (which includes nine innings by Tillman), O's starters are 17th in ERA and 21st in FIP. Considering the unpredictable nature of a chunk of the rotation, those are quite acceptable results. And while far from dominant, the rotation has done enough to keep the Orioles in games.

The starter who has stepped up the most? Kevin Gausman. In the past month, he's made six starts and posted an ERA near 2 with a FIP near 3. As Ryan Romano noted over at MASNsports.com, Gausman has been particularly adept at limiting damage with runners on base.

The next best has been Ubaldo Jimenez, because of course. Not only is Jimenez doing a solid job of filling in for Tillman, but he's making Buck Showalter at least consider the notion of a six-man rotation after Tillman returns from the disabled list. Besides Jimenez's latest success, perhaps the best argument in favor of an expanded rotation is Dylan Bundy's declining velocity.

Jimenez has made three starts since rejoining the rotation and hasn't looked very Ubaldo-like. Perhaps that's because he threw a stunning and much-needed complete game on Labor Day against the Rays. He's mostly pitched to contact, limiting both strikeouts (5.4 K/9) and walks (1.25 BB/9) while running a BABIP of only .153. Jimenez seems to be receiving some good fortune that he lacked while recording a very high BABIP early in the season, but good luck extrapolating any kind of long-term meaning in his recent performance. Just enjoy Good Ubaldo while he's here, because his success could be fleeting (though not meaningless!).

It's also not hard to see where the O's have missed O'Day. Zach Britton has been amazing all season, but Brad Brach has taken a step back after the all-star break. That doesn't make Brach ineffective; it just means he's not as good as he looked in the first half, which you probably figured anyway. But it has mattered without O'Day around.

Mychal Givens has still been deployed often and has been useful, though he's maybe not as dominant as you hoped (especially if you're greedy). One bright spot has been Donnie Hart, who has yet to allow a run despite a strikeout rate slightly over 5. That's hard to do! Still, the O's clearly need O'Day, who adds one more reliable arm to the Britton, Brach, and Givens group. Hart isn't there yet, and who knows what Tommy Hunter has left in the tank.

Losing Tillman for any significant stretch was supposed to be a death knell for the 2016 Orioles, but it hasn't turned out that way. The Orioles are in the thick of the playoff race, and it's anticipated that Tillman will come off the disabled list and pitch on Sunday. Obviously there's no guarantee that Tillman returns completely healthy or effective. Still, the O's have shown that for weeks at a time they can win games without him. They're just hoping they don't have to do that anymore very soon.

Why Brad Brach Might Be Even Better

Heading into the 2016 season, the Orioles projected to have a very strong bullpen. Any group of relievers will benefit from the presence of Zach Britton and Darren O'Day, sure, but the O's figured to have a nice mix of  talented young players and veterans.

Things don't always go according to plan, but they have so far for the O's bullpen. Excluding Brian Matusz, who has yet to pitch three full innings, every reliever has an ERA of 3 or below. Every reliever not named T.J. McFarland (3.15) and Dylan Bundy (3.96) also has a FIP under 3. Britton, O'Day, and Mychal Givens have strikeout rates of at least 11.7 per nine innings, and Brad Brach has a K/9 of 9.4.

With a blend of short and long relievers at his disposal, Buck Showalter has done a masterful job of spreading around the work to make up for a starting rotation that rarely makes it through six innings. That doesn't mean every reliever has been used in the most favorable spot; obviously you can nitpick with some of the decisions in various situations. But that's nearly impossible to do for a bullpen that carries such a heavy burden and workload.

O'Day and Britton are almost always used in the eighth and ninth innings, respectively, which allows Showalter to deploy Brach and Givens to put out fires in the sixth and seventh innings. I've written a decent amount about Givens recently, but Brach merits more praise for what he's transformed into. 

For MASNsports.com last season, I wrote about how Brach was talented enough to slide into O'Day's role, were he to leave in free agency. He didn't, of course, giving Showalter plenty of relief options to choose from this season. 

Brach, who primarily throws four-seamers, splitters, and sliders, joined the Orioles in 2014 and immediately gained about 1.5 mph on his fastball (to 94.7). Last year it jumped to 95.3, and so far this year he's up to 95.5. He's also thrown his slider harder every season since, along with throwing many more splitters. As Ryan Romano wrote early last season, Brach has taken full advantage of the increased velocity and nasty horizontal movement of his splitter, as it's become a legitimate weapon. Opposing batters had a much more difficult time squaring up on Brach's splitter, and the same has held true early this season. He's also throwing the splitter even lower in the zone.

Another large reason for Brach's success is that he's not a liability against left-handed hitters. In his career, right-handed batters have a .297 wOBA against him, while lefties have a wOBA of .283. He gets more strikeouts against right-handers, but allows home runs about twice as often. 

Looking at one year of data can be misleading, but after struggling a bit against lefties in 2014 (.334 wOBA), Brach excelled against them in 2015 (.238 wOBA) after adding more splitters to his repertoire. It's not surprising that he'd throw more splitters, as it generates more whiffs per swing by a wide margin.

Brach might not strike out 10 batters per nine innings again like he did last season, but if he keeps that number somewhere above nine, cuts down on his walks, and does a better job of keeping the ball in the ballpark, he'll be a more efficient and effective pitcher. And right now, that's exactly what he's doing. 

Mychal Givens And Going Up In The Zone

In his first 30 innings last year as a major leaguer, Mychal Givens was dominant. He finished with an ERA under 2, struck out more than 11 per nine innings, and walked fewer than 2 per nine. His 1.73 FIP and 2.38 xFIP were also outstanding. Duplicating those numbers, or something close, over a full season would be fantastic enough, especially since he's 25 years old and under team control for a long time.

So far in 2016, if you just look at Givens's ERA in limited work (6.2 innings after last night's loss to the Blue Jays), you would think he's stumbling somewhat out of the gate. He now has a 4.05 ERA and has allowed a home run (which is noteworthy only because he gave up just one last season). But Givens has been relatively unlucky on balls in play. Opposing batters have hit the ball harder and been pulling the ball more often than last season, but his batting average on balls in play is still high at .571. Before last night, it was .727.

So yes, that's the kind of thing that can happen in small samples. Despite that unfortunate number, though, Givens has a strikeout rate over 17, thanks to him recording 13 of his 20 outs via the strikeout. In fact, all 13 of Givens's strikeouts have been on swinging strikes (or foul tips into the catcher's mitt).

So is Givens doing anything different so far? Pitch usage wise, not really. Per Brooks Baseball, he's still mostly throwing four-seamers and sliders, and he has only thrown two changeups. His pitch velocity has also held steady. He's still throwing his four-seamer about 95 mph, with his slider in the mid-80s. He is getting slightly more horizontal movement with his fastball, but his vertical movement has more or less stayed the same.

Givens is getting more whiffs on both his fastball and slider, though, and one reason might be vertical location. Givens is throwing his slider higher in the zone, but he'd prefer to bury that pitch low and away to get swings and misses. He was very good at doing so last season, and his whiff percentage was slightly higher with his slider. But the more notable change has been with his fastball. After throwing fastballs a bit below the zone last year, Givens is throwing them a touch above it now.

Let's shift to some data from Baseball Savant. Nine of Givens's strikeouts have been on pitches up in the strikezone. Eight of those came on fastballs, and one was a slider. The other four strikeouts all came on sliders down in the zone. Last season, of Givens's 38 strikeouts, only 11 were on pitches up in the zone (all fastballs). Meanwhile, 22 of his strikeouts were on pitches down in the zone and five were on pitches in the middle. So maybe there's something to this.

Or perhaps this is all nothing. You can't believe everything a player or coach says, but Givens also talked about this very topic with Steve Melewski of MASN only a month ago:

“I talked to Darren O’Day and he’s good about doing that,” he said. “I tried it out last year and it worked pretty well. I’ve wanted to get better at doing that and commanding that.

“It can disrupt timing and you get batters to chase pitches out of the zone with two strikes. You’re just trying to change eye levels and not let the batter get too comfortable looking down and down in the zone. Just trying to change eye level and to get consistent doing that.”

If this is indeed the influence of submarine riseballer Darren O'Day on the sidearm-throwing Givens, then the results are encouraging. Givens still seems like a work in progress, and it's not guaranteed that he was actually as good as his 2015 numbers indicate. But he seems open to trying new things, and that's important for someone with a platoon split issue against left-handed hitters who could use any extra weapon or strategy to retire opposing hitters.

Many times, pitchers work on things in the spring and simply scrap them later. Maybe this is what Givens will do. But for now, it's something to keep an eye on.

Stats from Brooks Baseball and Baseball Savant as of April 19. 

Should Darren O'Day Become The Orioles' Closer?

Click here for Ryan Romano's archives.

After a terrifying delay, the Orioles finally made a big move in the offseason (and a positive one this time!): They brought back Darren O'Day. The four-year, $31 million contract became official on Monday; since O'Day took his physical on Wednesday, it appears that the deal is for real, although the team hasn't announced it yet. Baltimore will continue to have one of the game's top setup men in O'Day, to pair with an elite closer in Zach Britton.

But should they fill those roles? As crazy as it sounds, perhaps the Orioles would be better off if they switched the two. Instead of O'Day manning the eighth and Britton the ninth, Britton would relieve the starting pitcher and O'Day would shut the door. While it breaks from the tradition Baltimore has established over the past two seasons, it would probably benefit the club enough to make it a worthwhile change.

The Orioles signed O'Day as a free agent, giving him a locked-in salary for the next four campaigns. By contrast, Britton came up through the Baltimore farm system, which means the arbitration process will establish his price. Despite the flaws of the save, many people within baseball still value it heavily when evaluating reliever performance — including those who set salaries for players such as Britton.

Look at some of the projected salaries for young closers, compared to those of similar setup men, and you'll see a trend. In Pittsburgh, Mark Melancon and his 51 saves could receive as much as $10 million for 2016. Meanwhile, Tony Watson, who accrued 41 holds in 2015, should earn around $4.6 million. Melancon does have an additional year of service time, warranting a higher salary, but it's unlikely that Watson will even approach eight figures next season. These two have identical profiles: Both were top-10 NL relievers in 2015 (and have been since 2013), both have spotless injury records, and both will turn 31 next spring. Only their roles set them apart.

Take another, cross-team example. Marlins reliever A.J. Ramos will enter arbitration for the first time this offseason, which will likely net him around $2.8 million. That comes pretty close to the probable $3.4 million salary of Jays reliever Brett Cecil, now in his third trip through the system. At age 29, both men have solid futures, as well as similar resumes: Cecil's 67 ERA- over the past three years matches Ramos's 68. But Cecil's greater experience should earn him more, and the reason it doesn't is his assignment — with just 11 saves since 2013, he won't see closer money. Ramos moved to the ninth inning in 2015, which pumped up his salary for 2016 and beyond.

Other, similar cases abound. Rays reliever Kevin Jepsen, a four-year veteran of arbitration, will likely gain around $6 million this time. A 31-year-old who has dominated across the last two seasons, he'll provide the Rays with a comparatively cheap eighth-inning option. Erstwhile Oriole and current Cub Pedro Strop, who turned a corner after heading to Chicago (doesn't that sound familiar?), has a projected price tag of $4.7 million. For a 30-year-old going through the process a third time, that's a bargain. The arbitration system rewards saves, not holds, an inefficiency that the teams who employ men like this will happily exploit.

I am far from the first person to note this. During the 2014 offseason, Matthew Murphy put forth this exact argument at The Hardball Times — that it makes fiscal sense for teams to divert their homegrown relievers away from the closer track as early as possible. (He goes into more detail with examples, so read it if you'd like more proof.) Now, two-ish years later, the Orioles have a perfect chance to follow his advice: By swapping Britton and O'Day, they'll potentially save millions on the former.

This idea does seem to have a flaw, though: O'Day struggles against opposite-handed batters, which could lead to his undoing in the ninth inning. Shouldn't the Orioles have their most indiscriminate reliever finish out the game?

While the platoon argument does have some truth to it, it doesn't solely apply to O'Day, as Britton has also carried a handedness split in his relief career:

Pitcher, Years	wOBA vs. L	wOBA vs. R
O'Day, 2012-15	.303	.229
Britton, 2014-15	.168	.267

O'Day has always stranded an incredible amount of runners, so the fact that he has higher wOBAs against than Britton does makes little difference. More importantly, O'Day's platoon split has shrunk recently — across the past two years, left-handed batters have managed a .270 wOBA against him (right-handed batters have held steady at .227). He's shifted his pitch usage against southpaws, suggesting it probably isn't a fluke:

Since O'Day came to Baltimore four years ago, lefties have crushed his slider for a .298 BABIP and .311 ISO. They've fared much worse against his sinker and four-seam fastball — particularly the latter, which has held them to a .119 ISO and .241 BABIP in that span. Along with an occasional changeup, this spike in hard pitches has helped O'Day to keep opposite-handed hitters in check, making him capable of pitching any time.

Of course, the Orioles will almost certainly stick to their 2014-15 blueprint. As the Proven Closer™, Britton presumably has the job secured until his arm falls off, leaving O'Day to come in before him. And even if the Orioles did shift them, it would net them a couple million dollars at most. Still, it would function as an interesting experiment, for a team that has shown an inclination toward those. Whatever happens, at least we can look forward to having a top-notch bullpen for years to come.

Do The Orioles Already Have The 'Next' Darren O'Day?

In early September, I looked at Mychal Givens and the impressive company he was keeping. And just to be clear, he ended the season with 30 innings pitched. So there's far from a large sample to draw anything conclusive.

That being said, it's hard not to at least be intrigued by the following table. Here's a list of relievers in 2015 who pitched at least 30 innings, had an ERA under 2.00, had a strikeout rate over 11, and a walk rate under 2:

Rk	Player	SO	IP	ERA	SO9	BB9	Year	Age	Tm	FIP	ERA+	OPS+
1	Darren O'Day	82	65.1	1.52	11.30	1.93	2015	32	BAL	2.49	274	48
2	Mychal Givens	38	30.0	1.80	11.40	1.80	2015	25	BAL	1.73	232	45

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/20/2015.

Going back to 1961, only 10 other pitchers have accomplished that feat. Obviously it helps Givens to be at the bottom of the innings spectrum, but it does show how dominant he could be.

There's no one quite like Darren O'Day in the majors, but the Orioles may just have the closest thing to him. Perhaps that's why the O's were so reluctant to include Givens in any potential trade during last season's non-waiver deadline. There's no real way of knowing until we get to see him pitch more.

If O'Day does depart, which grows more likely every day, then Brad Brach may get the first crack at the set-up role. But Givens could easily be thrust into set-up duty as well. Is it ideal to use a 25-year-old with limited experience in the majors (and with pitching, in general) in that role? Maybe not. Sometimes that's what teams have to do when they have limited resources -- in this case, a mid-market team -- and are trying to decide which players to sign to fill a number of holes.

There's a case to be made that the Orioles should trade Zach Britton now, reap the benefits of the increased value of dominant relief pitchers (see Craig Kimbrel), and re-sign O'Day. Britton, O'Day, Brach, Givens et al. is a very solid group of relievers, but even one of Britton/O'Day is still pretty good. If the O's aren't at least exploring a Britton trade, they should be.

If Givens ends up being anything close to O'Day in the next few years, the O's will be thrilled. And even if they don't end up in the same bullpen in 2016 and beyond, at least Givens got to work with O'Day for a while and hopefully absorb what he could.

Darren O'Day's Game 1 Mistake to Alex Gordon

After having Sunday off, the ALCS starts back up again tonight in Kansas City.  With the Orioles down 2-0, it’s not exactly how anyone drew it up before the series began.  While Baltimore found themselves within striking distance of a win in both games, the bullpen eventually ended up allowing the go-ahead run(s) to score in the 9^th inning or later in each contest.

One of the key moments in the Game 1 loss occurred in the top of the 10^th inning, when Kansas City left fielder Alex Gordon led off the inning against Darren O’Day.  After taking a sinker well off the plate and swinging through a slider on the inside corner, Gordon deposited a sinker over the right field wall for a home run.  Gordon’s home run against O’Day delivered the big blow against the chances of Baltimore ultimately winning this game, at least in terms of Win Expectancy (resulting in a 35.5% change).  I hate to do this to our readers, but here it is again.

The first thing I thought while watching that ball leave the yard was, “How the hell did he yank that out of the park to right field?”  Based on what I thought I was initially looking at, it appeared that O’Day made a pretty good pitch up on the outside edge of the plate.  Looking at the pitch f/x data (see figure on left), it confirms that the pitch was literally on the very edge of the upper and outside part of the strike zone.  It’s difficult to hit a pitch in that location, let alone for a left handed batter to pull it out of the park for a home run.

However, when you take another look at the video (I know it’s tough, but please watch the video above again), you can tell that Hundley was looking for the ball to be down (and possibly in), which means that O’Day missed his spot by a great deal.  Looking at the tendencies of Alex Gordon as a hitter a little closer, it becomes clear that while O’Day’s pitch ended up in a pretty good location (despite missing his spot), he didn’t make a good pitch if Alex Gordon is the batter.  Looking at the figure below, you can see just how much damage Gordon does on “hard” pitches located up and outside (since 2009, when the data became available).

However, that’s not the interesting part.  The interesting thing about it is how the hits are distributed.  You’d expect the heat map above to be associated with a lot of opposite field home runs, but as one can see in the figure below, that’s not the case with Gordon.

What you will see is that Gordon has no problem taking a fastball opposite field for doubles, but he won’t hit many of them out of the park.  It’s not as if he has difficulty hitting home runs on those pitches though, as it appears he has the unusual ability to yank them over the fence to center field and right field, which is not what what one would expect, especially for someone like Gordon, who is not thought of as being a prolific home run hitter.  As the figure shows, only 2 of his 12 home runs on fastballs up and away (since 2009) have not gone to right or center field.

While at first glance it may have appeared that Gordon hit a good pitch from O’Day, further examination tells us that it was a good pitch, just not a good pitch to throw to Alex Gordon. There’s a good chance that O’Day and the Orioles knew that as well, based on where Hundley called for the pitch, and where O’Day ended up throwing it.  Mistakes in pitching location happen all the time, and sometimes those mistakes don’t amount to anything.  In this instance it did.  And since the Orioles now find themselves down by 2 games in the ALCS, they’ll need to limit mistakes like this more than ever.