Rumor Has It...2016 Orioles Edition (10/21/15)

In this series, we will try to provide you some information on players rumored to be of interest to the Orioles with a few notes.

Articles included in this edition:
This, That, and the Other - Roch
Who Can Generate Power for the Red Sox - Cafardo

Chris Young, RHSP
Arbitration Eligible: No
Currently Under Contract: No
Qualifying Offer: Not Expected
Projected Contract: 1 / 8 MM
Fastball: 86 mph; Slider: 80 mph; Change Up: 80 mph

Last Five Seasons:

Year	Age	W	L	ERA	IP	ERA+	FIP	BB9	SO9	bWAR	fWAR
2011	32	1	0	1.88	24.0	199	4.32	4.1	8.3	1.0	0.3
2012	33	4	9	4.15	115.0	92	4.50	2.8	6.3	0.9	1.1
2013
2014	35	12	9	3.65	165.0	100	5.02	3.3	5.9	2.0	0.0
2015	36	11	6	3.06	123.1	135	4.52	3.1	6.1	2.5	0.9
11 Yrs		76	58	3.69	1179.0	109	4.39	3.4	7.2

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original TableGenerated 10/19/2015.

Chris Young is a somewhat controversial figure over the past few years where his performance has exceeded what his expectations would be according to his peripherals.  In the past year, one might well have laid it upon the Royals defense as saving him from many runs.  The year before was spent in Seattle, but there have been no solid relationships between stadiums and outperformance of FIP.  This begs the question of whether what Young is doing is reflective of a true talent or that he has been fortunate over the last 300 innings pitched.

You may also be familiar that Chris Young was a major component of one of the deals Buck Showalter supposedly pushed hard for which also sent over Adrian Gonzalez for Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka.  That horrific deal is one of the concerns why many fear what would come from Buck having greater influence in the front office.  For the Padres, Young and Gonzalez helped make the team respectable for a few years while Eaton and Otsuka were parts of an incredibly underwhelming Texas squad.

Personally, I am concerned about how well a pitcher like Young would do at Camden Yards.  Tossing an 86 mph fastball with a groundball rate of about 25% are not exactly the kind of metrics you would want for a home run friendly park.  Furthermore, a concern about soft tosser is that when they begin to fall apart, the descent is rapid and extreme.  A one year deal would not be the worst thing in the same way one year deals for Vladimir Guerrero or Garrett Atkins was also not the worst thing.  I think it would be unadvisable though to sign him as I thought it unadvisable to sign either Guerrero or Atkins.

Brandon Moss, 1B/COF (LHB)
Arbitration Eligible: Yes, 9.1 MM projected
Currently Under Contract: Arbitration Years
Qualifying Offer: Not Expected
Projected Contract: 1 / 9 MM

Last Five Seasons

Year	Age	PA	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	bWAR	fWAR
2011	27	6	0	0	2	.000	.000	.000	-100	-0.1	-0.1
2012	28	296	21	26	90	.291	.358	.596	162	2.1	2.3
2013	29	505	30	50	140	.256	.337	.522	136	2.0	2.1
2014	30	580	25	67	153	.234	.334	.438	119	2.4	2.5
2015	31	526	19	49	148	.226	.304	.407	90	-0.5	0.6
9 Yrs		2656	110	252	699	.243	.322	.450	110

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original TableGenerated 10/19/2015.

Brandon Moss is an interesting player.  He is largely rumored as a non-tender candidate due to a large expected contract coming his way.  However, based on previous success, our contract algorithm puts his value right in line with the expected arbitration figure.  With that in mind, it can be assumed that the Cardinals will hold on to Moss even if they do not wish to pay him for 2016 because someone will be willing to pay him and hand over a mid-level or so prospect in return.

For the Orioles, Moss would provide potential value and has enough of an ability to play first base and the outfield to be part of a flexible lineup that I lobbied for in the blueprint series.  Personally, I would be more interested in targeting Matt Joyce because he should come in several million cheaper and provide similar value on a one year deal.

Alex Gordon, COF (LHB)
Arbitration Eligible: No
Currently Under Contract: Player Option for 12.5 MM
Qualifying Offer: Expected (15.8 MM)
Projected Contract: 7 / 168 MM

Last Five Years:

Year	Age	PA	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	bWAR	fWAR
2011	27	690	23	67	139	.303	.376	.502	140	7.2	6.6
2012	28	721	14	73	140	.294	.368	.455	123	6.3	5.5
2013	29	700	20	52	141	.265	.327	.422	103	4.2	3.7
2014	30	643	19	65	126	.266	.351	.432	118	6.6	6.6
2015	31	422	13	49	92	.271	.377	.432	120	2.8	2.8
9 Yrs		4818	134	468	1000	.269	.348	.435	112

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original TableGenerated 10/19/2015.

Alex Gordon is another interesting player because his value appears to be similar to Chris Davis' and he also has red flags attached.  While Gordon has had a better career than Davis, he is coming off a season where a few questions arose (Davis' questions date from his 2014 atrocious year).  While 2015 has not been bad for Gordon, it was the first season where he was merely average in the field.  His stellar play in seasons past was largely connected to his fielding prowess.  His moderate power and good walk rate rounded that value out.

If he truly is a 20+ MM AAV kind of player, it would be easier to bet on him.  The likely causes of his average defensive play was his groin injury.  Those injuries tend to reoccur during a season, but an offseason of rest should be good for what ails his aching loins.  I would have greater concern if it was a hamstring issue.  While I do not expect him to match his stellar years defensively, he should be able to provide good defense for several more seasons.  My greater concern is that I doubt how well players age who depend on a high on base percentage to go along with moderate power.  Investing this much in a player who could turn into Shin Soo Choo could hurt greatly.  However, I must note that Gordon's defense is far greater than what Choo offered.

Personally, I would be willing to give Gordon six or seven years, but I would look to something more similar in AAV as to what I would expect Zobrist to make: 17 or 18 MM.  I think Gordon will be able to find more money elsewhere.  Additionally, losing a first round pick for a club like the Orioles who have low levels of talent in their farm system seems like a poor idea for the long term health of this franchise.

Conclusion
As you can probably tell, I am not impressed by any of these as a fit for the Orioles.  Chris Young looks too vulnerable for Camden Yards with his extreme flyball tendencies.  Brandon Moss looks promising, but I fear he would cost too much for the level of risk you are assuming.  Alex Gordon is a great player to have, but I question how well he will age as well as losing a first round pick for signing him.

Darren O'Day's Game 1 Mistake to Alex Gordon

After having Sunday off, the ALCS starts back up again tonight in Kansas City.  With the Orioles down 2-0, it’s not exactly how anyone drew it up before the series began.  While Baltimore found themselves within striking distance of a win in both games, the bullpen eventually ended up allowing the go-ahead run(s) to score in the 9^th inning or later in each contest.

One of the key moments in the Game 1 loss occurred in the top of the 10^th inning, when Kansas City left fielder Alex Gordon led off the inning against Darren O’Day.  After taking a sinker well off the plate and swinging through a slider on the inside corner, Gordon deposited a sinker over the right field wall for a home run.  Gordon’s home run against O’Day delivered the big blow against the chances of Baltimore ultimately winning this game, at least in terms of Win Expectancy (resulting in a 35.5% change).  I hate to do this to our readers, but here it is again.

The first thing I thought while watching that ball leave the yard was, “How the hell did he yank that out of the park to right field?”  Based on what I thought I was initially looking at, it appeared that O’Day made a pretty good pitch up on the outside edge of the plate.  Looking at the pitch f/x data (see figure on left), it confirms that the pitch was literally on the very edge of the upper and outside part of the strike zone.  It’s difficult to hit a pitch in that location, let alone for a left handed batter to pull it out of the park for a home run.

However, when you take another look at the video (I know it’s tough, but please watch the video above again), you can tell that Hundley was looking for the ball to be down (and possibly in), which means that O’Day missed his spot by a great deal.  Looking at the tendencies of Alex Gordon as a hitter a little closer, it becomes clear that while O’Day’s pitch ended up in a pretty good location (despite missing his spot), he didn’t make a good pitch if Alex Gordon is the batter.  Looking at the figure below, you can see just how much damage Gordon does on “hard” pitches located up and outside (since 2009, when the data became available).

However, that’s not the interesting part.  The interesting thing about it is how the hits are distributed.  You’d expect the heat map above to be associated with a lot of opposite field home runs, but as one can see in the figure below, that’s not the case with Gordon.

What you will see is that Gordon has no problem taking a fastball opposite field for doubles, but he won’t hit many of them out of the park.  It’s not as if he has difficulty hitting home runs on those pitches though, as it appears he has the unusual ability to yank them over the fence to center field and right field, which is not what what one would expect, especially for someone like Gordon, who is not thought of as being a prolific home run hitter.  As the figure shows, only 2 of his 12 home runs on fastballs up and away (since 2009) have not gone to right or center field.

While at first glance it may have appeared that Gordon hit a good pitch from O’Day, further examination tells us that it was a good pitch, just not a good pitch to throw to Alex Gordon. There’s a good chance that O’Day and the Orioles knew that as well, based on where Hundley called for the pitch, and where O’Day ended up throwing it.  Mistakes in pitching location happen all the time, and sometimes those mistakes don’t amount to anything.  In this instance it did.  And since the Orioles now find themselves down by 2 games in the ALCS, they’ll need to limit mistakes like this more than ever.