Rumor Has It...2016 Orioles Edition (10/21/15)

In this series, we will try to provide you some information on players rumored to be of interest to the Orioles with a few notes.

Articles included in this edition:
This, That, and the Other - Roch
Who Can Generate Power for the Red Sox - Cafardo

Chris Young, RHSP
Arbitration Eligible: No
Currently Under Contract: No
Qualifying Offer: Not Expected
Projected Contract: 1 / 8 MM
Fastball: 86 mph; Slider: 80 mph; Change Up: 80 mph

Last Five Seasons:

Year	Age	W	L	ERA	IP	ERA+	FIP	BB9	SO9	bWAR	fWAR
2011	32	1	0	1.88	24.0	199	4.32	4.1	8.3	1.0	0.3
2012	33	4	9	4.15	115.0	92	4.50	2.8	6.3	0.9	1.1
2013
2014	35	12	9	3.65	165.0	100	5.02	3.3	5.9	2.0	0.0
2015	36	11	6	3.06	123.1	135	4.52	3.1	6.1	2.5	0.9
11 Yrs		76	58	3.69	1179.0	109	4.39	3.4	7.2

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original TableGenerated 10/19/2015.

Chris Young is a somewhat controversial figure over the past few years where his performance has exceeded what his expectations would be according to his peripherals.  In the past year, one might well have laid it upon the Royals defense as saving him from many runs.  The year before was spent in Seattle, but there have been no solid relationships between stadiums and outperformance of FIP.  This begs the question of whether what Young is doing is reflective of a true talent or that he has been fortunate over the last 300 innings pitched.

You may also be familiar that Chris Young was a major component of one of the deals Buck Showalter supposedly pushed hard for which also sent over Adrian Gonzalez for Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka.  That horrific deal is one of the concerns why many fear what would come from Buck having greater influence in the front office.  For the Padres, Young and Gonzalez helped make the team respectable for a few years while Eaton and Otsuka were parts of an incredibly underwhelming Texas squad.

Personally, I am concerned about how well a pitcher like Young would do at Camden Yards.  Tossing an 86 mph fastball with a groundball rate of about 25% are not exactly the kind of metrics you would want for a home run friendly park.  Furthermore, a concern about soft tosser is that when they begin to fall apart, the descent is rapid and extreme.  A one year deal would not be the worst thing in the same way one year deals for Vladimir Guerrero or Garrett Atkins was also not the worst thing.  I think it would be unadvisable though to sign him as I thought it unadvisable to sign either Guerrero or Atkins.

Brandon Moss, 1B/COF (LHB)
Arbitration Eligible: Yes, 9.1 MM projected
Currently Under Contract: Arbitration Years
Qualifying Offer: Not Expected
Projected Contract: 1 / 9 MM

Last Five Seasons

Year	Age	PA	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	bWAR	fWAR
2011	27	6	0	0	2	.000	.000	.000	-100	-0.1	-0.1
2012	28	296	21	26	90	.291	.358	.596	162	2.1	2.3
2013	29	505	30	50	140	.256	.337	.522	136	2.0	2.1
2014	30	580	25	67	153	.234	.334	.438	119	2.4	2.5
2015	31	526	19	49	148	.226	.304	.407	90	-0.5	0.6
9 Yrs		2656	110	252	699	.243	.322	.450	110

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original TableGenerated 10/19/2015.

Brandon Moss is an interesting player.  He is largely rumored as a non-tender candidate due to a large expected contract coming his way.  However, based on previous success, our contract algorithm puts his value right in line with the expected arbitration figure.  With that in mind, it can be assumed that the Cardinals will hold on to Moss even if they do not wish to pay him for 2016 because someone will be willing to pay him and hand over a mid-level or so prospect in return.

For the Orioles, Moss would provide potential value and has enough of an ability to play first base and the outfield to be part of a flexible lineup that I lobbied for in the blueprint series.  Personally, I would be more interested in targeting Matt Joyce because he should come in several million cheaper and provide similar value on a one year deal.

Alex Gordon, COF (LHB)
Arbitration Eligible: No
Currently Under Contract: Player Option for 12.5 MM
Qualifying Offer: Expected (15.8 MM)
Projected Contract: 7 / 168 MM

Last Five Years:

Year	Age	PA	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	bWAR	fWAR
2011	27	690	23	67	139	.303	.376	.502	140	7.2	6.6
2012	28	721	14	73	140	.294	.368	.455	123	6.3	5.5
2013	29	700	20	52	141	.265	.327	.422	103	4.2	3.7
2014	30	643	19	65	126	.266	.351	.432	118	6.6	6.6
2015	31	422	13	49	92	.271	.377	.432	120	2.8	2.8
9 Yrs		4818	134	468	1000	.269	.348	.435	112

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original TableGenerated 10/19/2015.

Alex Gordon is another interesting player because his value appears to be similar to Chris Davis' and he also has red flags attached.  While Gordon has had a better career than Davis, he is coming off a season where a few questions arose (Davis' questions date from his 2014 atrocious year).  While 2015 has not been bad for Gordon, it was the first season where he was merely average in the field.  His stellar play in seasons past was largely connected to his fielding prowess.  His moderate power and good walk rate rounded that value out.

If he truly is a 20+ MM AAV kind of player, it would be easier to bet on him.  The likely causes of his average defensive play was his groin injury.  Those injuries tend to reoccur during a season, but an offseason of rest should be good for what ails his aching loins.  I would have greater concern if it was a hamstring issue.  While I do not expect him to match his stellar years defensively, he should be able to provide good defense for several more seasons.  My greater concern is that I doubt how well players age who depend on a high on base percentage to go along with moderate power.  Investing this much in a player who could turn into Shin Soo Choo could hurt greatly.  However, I must note that Gordon's defense is far greater than what Choo offered.

Personally, I would be willing to give Gordon six or seven years, but I would look to something more similar in AAV as to what I would expect Zobrist to make: 17 or 18 MM.  I think Gordon will be able to find more money elsewhere.  Additionally, losing a first round pick for a club like the Orioles who have low levels of talent in their farm system seems like a poor idea for the long term health of this franchise.

Conclusion
As you can probably tell, I am not impressed by any of these as a fit for the Orioles.  Chris Young looks too vulnerable for Camden Yards with his extreme flyball tendencies.  Brandon Moss looks promising, but I fear he would cost too much for the level of risk you are assuming.  Alex Gordon is a great player to have, but I question how well he will age as well as losing a first round pick for signing him.

Chris Young: Starting Left Fielder?

Chris Young robbing a home run (Photo Credit: Dinur Blum)

Last month, during the “Making the Orioles a Champion in 2014” series here at the Depot, Matt did an excellent job of looking at potential options to fill the open space commonly referred to as left field on the 2014 Orioles roster.  One name that I thought warranted consideration, but was missing from the discussion, was (former) Oakland Athletics outfielder Chris Young.  The Athletics declined an $11 million team option on Young earlier in the offseason, making him a free agent.

Reading the title of this post the way Ron Burgundy reads a teleprompter should give a better idea of the starting point of this article, because in all honesty, I’m not sure if the Orioles should attempt to make Young their starting left fielder in the 2014 season.  After accumulating more than 10 Wins Above Replacement (according to Fangraphs) from 2010 to 2012, Young easily had the worst season of his career in 2013 playing mostly as a 4^th outfielder in Oakland, collecting only 375 plate appearances. 

Despite the terrible 2013 season, Young will be playing the 2014 season at 30 years old.  So while he may be past his peak, his 2013 numbers aren’t necessarily indicative of his performance going forward.  That’s the good news.  The bad news is that knowing this, Young will want to re-establish his value in the upcoming season, preferring to play for a team that will give him playing time as a starter (such as the Mets, Astros, etc.).  With that in mind, let’s see if the Orioles should pursue Young to fill their starting left field vacancy for the 2014 season.

Let’s start with the tools.  Out of the 5 tools available to a baseball player, Young possesses about 3.5 of them.  He has plus speed, defense, and power.  On the other hand, his arm is ok, and (as you can see by his batting averages above), he can have trouble making good contact.  Young’s inability to hit enough for him to get to his power is really the main hole in his game.

My initial assumption prior to looking at any data was that the main reason Young hits so poorly is due to his high strikeout rate.  However, after looking closer at the numbers, Young’s career strikeout rate, while higher than the league average, is only at 22.9%.  Since 2007 (when Young became a major league regular), the league average strikeout rate has been 18.5%.  So while it’s higher than average, it’s not so astronomical that it should be viewed as an issue.  Additionally, the Orioles had the 8^th lowest strikeout rate as a team in 2013, so strikeouts were not generally an overall problem for Baltimore’s offense in 2013.

While his strikeout rate doesn’t help, it seems that the main reason Young perennially hits for low averages deals with his extremely high fly ball rate.  A high fly ball rate isn’t necessarily a bad thing for a hitter with Young’s power, especially if he’s playing most of his games in a ballpark like Camden Yards.  But the issue isn’t just his fly balls.  The issue is the number of infield fly balls he hits, which (obviously) have zero chance of ever being home runs.  While this is not ideal, Young has succeeded with a high IFFB% in previous years (over 20% in 2011), but that’s not a characteristic you generally want in a player.

The fact that Young hits far more fly balls than the average major leaguer means that his batting average is less dependent on BABIP, and as one would expect his career BABIP sits at .274 (league average BABIP in 2013 was .297).  And although his offensive production in 2013 was especially bad, some of it may have been driven by a career low BABIP of .237, despite a line drive rate that was 3% higher than his career average (his FB% and IFFB% in 2013 was only slightly higher than career levels).

On the plus side, Chris Young provides a good approach at the plate with plus power.  He boasts a career walk rate of 10%, which is better than every Orioles hitter in 2013 (minimum 300 PA’s), except for Chris Davis.  His career ISO of .196 would have been 3^rd on the 2013 Orioles, (way) behind Davis and just behind Adam Jones.  Young produces a lot of value on the bases and on defense as well.  While he doesn’t steal a ton of bases (career SB% of 76%), he’s graded out as an above average baserunner every year of his career (according to Fangraphs).  On defense, he has a career UZR/150 of 3.0 (mostly in CF) along with 32 Defensive Runs Saved above average.  Ignoring the fact that Young should probably play centerfield instead of Jones based on his defense, he’ll be a more than adequate fill-in should Adam Jones get hurt.

But that’s all in the past, and we’re interested in what Young will produce in 2014.  He should be a relatively cheap signing this offseason.  Jim Bowden of ESPN expects Young to receive a 1 year, $5 million contract, while the Fangraphs audience expects Young to get 2 years and $13.6 million total.  I agree more with Bowden in this case, as I expect Young to prefer a one year contract, so he can re-establish his value and cash in next offseason.

An easy way to get an idea of what Young may contribute in 2014 season is to take a look at his Steamer projections located at Fangraphs.

As you can see in the table, I’ve included the 2014 Steamer projections for Nate McLouth as well, since it has been rumored that the Orioles would like to re-sign McLouth to play left-field for them again next season.  From an offense and baserunning perspective, Steamer projects Young and McLouth to be equally productive.  However, Young gains extra value from his superior defensive skills (both UZR/150 and DRS have McLouth as a below average fielder over his career, and he projects more of the same in 2014).  What is interesting is that Young projects to produce 0.5 wins more than McLouth in 66 fewer plate appearances.  Just for fun, I’ve included the average league production from left field in the 2013 season, and both candidates basically project to be that “average” player.

So what are we left with?  Despite the similarities, we’re left with a few differences that could sway our decision.  The first is Young’s superior defense, which we’ve already touched on.  Next would be each player’s contract expectations.  It’s been reported that McLouth is seeking a 2 year agreement (it’s also been reported that this isn't what the Orioles want to give him), while it’s viewed that Young will be likely looking for a one year contract.  Finally, there is each player’s age, as Young will play the 2014 season at age 30, while McLouth will do so at 32.

In my mind, all of the differences outlined above show Young as the better option in left field for the 2014 season.  Additionally, with a little positive regression (i.e., good luck), it’s not improbable that Young could provide an offensively similar season to the one he produced in 2010.  On the other hand, the best-case scenario for McLouth may very well be a repeat of his production in 2013.

In a perfect world, the Orioles would sign both players, which would give them a very productive LF platoon (Young has a career wOBA of .364 against LHP, while McLouth has a career .342 wOBA against RHP).  Unfortunately, this is not a perfect world, as playing time expectations of the players and payroll limitations of the team make that idea virtually impossible.

Ultimately, the Orioles should roll the dice with Chris Young, assuming he is willing to play left field.  The team will also have to provide Young with the assurance that he’ll be a starter.  And if the Orioles do in fact attempt to sign him, that may be the real challenge.  In a year where he will be looking to re-establish his market value, playing time, specifically in center field, may be the most important factor in Chris Young’s decision.