Wade Miley Is Not Giving The Orioles What They Need

The Orioles hoped they were, at the very least, getting an unremarkable but adequate starting pitcher when they acquired Wade Miley from the Mariners at the non-waiver trade deadline. They parted with fellow southpaw Ariel Miranda to get the deal done, which certainly wasn't a high price but was something.

The hope was that Miley, as the team's lone left-handed starter, would be serviceable. Passable, average, sufficient, all right, not bad, decent, fine, OK -- any of those would have sufficed. Instead, it would be difficult for the trade to look any worse right now. After eight starts in an O's uniform, Miley's numbers are amazingly bad. He's thrown about 35 innings, and he has an ERA of 8.41. That's not what the Orioles want; that's not what any team wants.

Of course, Miley isn't this bad. Few pitchers are. Besides the home run numbers (1.5 HR/9 with a HR/FB rate of 20%), Miley's peripherals suggest he's been unfortunate. His strikeouts and walk rates are fine, and he has a 4.81 FIP and an xFIP (which assumes a league average home run rate) of 3.99. And like Ubaldo Jimenez early in the season, BABIP has not been Miley's friend. With the Orioles, Miley has a BABIP of .409. His career mark is .307.

Regardless, you probably don't care what Miley's numbers should look like when the O's are clinging to that second wild card slot. And it's hardly unreasonable to expect better than what they've received from Miley.

Miley's stretch seems particularly terrible, even when comparing his performance against some of the underwhelming pitchers the Orioles have employed the last decade or two. So I went to the Baseball-Reference Play Index to investigate. I wondered which pitchers had so many consecutive terrible outings in a row to start their Orioles' career. The Orioles have had a lot of bad pitchers, and Miley is doing his best to join them.

I searched for consecutive pitching outings in O's history with the following criteria: at least one inning pitched, at least two earned runs allowed, and at least seven baserunners allowed (for starters only). And Miley is quickly working his way up the list. Miley has amassed eight such outings in a row (Baseball-Reference hasn't updated yet this morning), tied for seventh in this group with some names you've heard before (Garrett Olson, Pat Rapp, Wayne Garland) and a couple that maybe you haven't (Bill Trotter, Joe Giard). The leaders of this group are Jason Johnson and Julio Bonetti, at 16 straight games. Carl Fischer had 10 such outings, followed by Jose Mesa, Erv Palica, and Don Larsen (all with nine).

That set of criteria, it's worth noting, doesn't necessarily lead to all negative results. Giving up two runs in five or six innings while limiting the damage is not ideal, but it's not terrible, either. You probably need some luck and/or a good defense behind you. And Miley has not been lucky (and if you watched the beginning of last night's game against the Red Sox, the O's defense did him no favors).

Considering Miley's BABIP and high home run rate, you'd figure some positive results are on the horizon. It's hard for any pitcher to sustain an ERA over 8 over this many starts. But at this point, there isn't really a whole lot the Orioles can do. Because of the wear and tear on Chris Tillman, the high workload of Dylan Bundy, and the uncertainty of Yovani Gallardo and Jimenez, the O's best course of action may be to proceed with their flawed collection of six starters.

Fortunately for the O's, after the season, Miley... oh, right. He's under contract next year for about $9 million. That's more than a fair price for an average starting pitcher, so perhaps that figure won't look so bad in a couple months. It would be tough, though, for it to look much worse.

Play Indexing: Yup, J.J. Hardy Was Bad In 2015

You know a big reason why J.J. Hardy was awful offensively last season. But it's still startling to see just how bad he was.

Hardy's batting line of .219/.253/.311 was among the worst shortstop seasons in the Expansion Era. And here's how Hardy's on-base percentage in particular ranked among players who played at least 75 percent of their games at shortstop and received at least 400 plate appearances since 1990:

Rk	Player	OBP	PA	Year	Age	Tm	G	BA	SLG	OPS
1	Alex Gonzalez	.229	407	2000	23	FLA	109	.200	.319	.548
2	J.J. Hardy	.253	437	2015	32	BAL	114	.219	.311	.564
3	Cesar Izturis	.253	468	2002	22	LAD	135	.232	.303	.556
4	Jack Wilson	.255	425	2001	23	PIT	108	.223	.295	.550
5	Juan Uribe	.257	495	2006	27	CHW	132	.235	.441	.698
6	Alvaro Espinoza	.258	472	1990	28	NYY	150	.224	.274	.532
7	Alfredo Griffin	.258	502	1990	32	LAD	141	.210	.254	.512
8	Alcides Escobar	.259	642	2013	26	KCR	158	.234	.300	.559
9	Angel Berroa	.259	503	2006	28	KCR	132	.234	.333	.592
10	Khalil Greene	.260	423	2008	28	SDP	105	.213	.339	.599
11	Cristian Guzman	.260	492	2005	27	WSN	142	.219	.314	.574
12	Neifi Perez	.260	585	2002	29	KCR	145	.236	.303	.564

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/29/2015.

You had to figure Cesar Izturis's name would show up. And it's moderately surprising that Deivi Cruz's didn't.

Although many impact free agents remain on the open market, the Orioles still have several holes on their projected 25-man roster. They clearly have some question marks, and unfortunately Hardy has to be considered one of them.

Barring any kind of setback with his shoulder, which is something that can't be ruled out anymore, he'll be the shortstop on opening day and for much of the year. But any kind of offensive contribution may end up being a bonus. And even though the Orioles don't seem to have much interest in trying to trade Hardy, he obviously wouldn't be easy to move anyway. He'll make $12.5 million in 2016 and $14 million in 2017, and his $14 million club option in 2018 ($2 million buyout) is fully guaranteed if he's traded (per Cot's). Good luck getting another team to pick up that tab.

The Orioles have some positions to upgrade, so they don't really have the luxury of worrying about Hardy. But fans do. A bounce-back of sorts almost has to be coming, but it might not be as big as fans anticipate.

Do The Orioles Already Have The 'Next' Darren O'Day?

In early September, I looked at Mychal Givens and the impressive company he was keeping. And just to be clear, he ended the season with 30 innings pitched. So there's far from a large sample to draw anything conclusive.

That being said, it's hard not to at least be intrigued by the following table. Here's a list of relievers in 2015 who pitched at least 30 innings, had an ERA under 2.00, had a strikeout rate over 11, and a walk rate under 2:

Rk	Player	SO	IP	ERA	SO9	BB9	Year	Age	Tm	FIP	ERA+	OPS+
1	Darren O'Day	82	65.1	1.52	11.30	1.93	2015	32	BAL	2.49	274	48
2	Mychal Givens	38	30.0	1.80	11.40	1.80	2015	25	BAL	1.73	232	45

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/20/2015.

Going back to 1961, only 10 other pitchers have accomplished that feat. Obviously it helps Givens to be at the bottom of the innings spectrum, but it does show how dominant he could be.

There's no one quite like Darren O'Day in the majors, but the Orioles may just have the closest thing to him. Perhaps that's why the O's were so reluctant to include Givens in any potential trade during last season's non-waiver deadline. There's no real way of knowing until we get to see him pitch more.

If O'Day does depart, which grows more likely every day, then Brad Brach may get the first crack at the set-up role. But Givens could easily be thrust into set-up duty as well. Is it ideal to use a 25-year-old with limited experience in the majors (and with pitching, in general) in that role? Maybe not. Sometimes that's what teams have to do when they have limited resources -- in this case, a mid-market team -- and are trying to decide which players to sign to fill a number of holes.

There's a case to be made that the Orioles should trade Zach Britton now, reap the benefits of the increased value of dominant relief pitchers (see Craig Kimbrel), and re-sign O'Day. Britton, O'Day, Brach, Givens et al. is a very solid group of relievers, but even one of Britton/O'Day is still pretty good. If the O's aren't at least exploring a Britton trade, they should be.

If Givens ends up being anything close to O'Day in the next few years, the O's will be thrilled. And even if they don't end up in the same bullpen in 2016 and beyond, at least Givens got to work with O'Day for a while and hopefully absorb what he could.

Play Indexing: Looking at the O's Record for Runs Scored in a Game

Yesterday, the Orioles scored 18 runs and collected 20 hits (and four walks) in a feel-good win over the Red Sox. Before the game was over, the O's Twitter account shared this tidbit:

The Orioles have scored a club record 18 runs against the Red Sox, previous club record was 17, set 9/27/1960 at Boston. #Birdland
— Baltimore Orioles (@Orioles) April 26, 2015

That's an interesting nugget, and that's a bunch of runs scored against a division rival. But the impressive effort wasn't a franchise best, which the O's accomplished against another division rival, the Toronto Blue Jays. In that game, on September 28, 2000, the Orioles scored 23 runs in a 23-1 rout. Like yesterday's game, every O's starter had a hit in that 2000 victory. Here was the O's lineup from that game:

Brady Anderson
Jerry Hairston
Delino DeShields
Albert Belle
Chris Richard
Cal Ripken, Jr.
Melvin Mora
Brook Fordyce
Eugene Kingsale

That's certainly an interesting group of players (the O's also finished 74-88 that season). Anderson, DeShields, and Fordyce all homered. Pat Rapp started the game and got the victory for the O's, who used four pitchers. The Jays also used four pitchers, including Chris Carpenter, who got the start and was knocked out after three innings, and Roy Halladay, who recorded two outs in relief and allowed seven runs (none of them earned; the Jays committed four errors in the game). Also, despite the huge lead, Buddy Groom retired the only batter he faced in the ninth inning on one pitch and then was removed from the game for some reason. Curious bullpen usage, Mike Hargrove.

In a 1999 victory over the Braves, the Orioles scored 22 runs in an easy win for Mike Mussina. (Rocky Coppinger also tossed two innings in relief.) The O's knocked John Smoltz out early in that rout and then went to work on the Braves' bullpen. Ripken homered twice and knocked in six runs and scored five. Will Clark also homered, along with Charles Johnson.

I'd be doing a disservice without mentioning the infamous 30-3 game from 2007 against the Rangers. The Rangers had 29 hits and eight walks! For shame, Daniel Cabrera, Brian Burres, Rob Bell, and Paul Shuey. For shame.