Chris Davis: Orioles Contracts and Extensions that Did Not Work

Chris Davis is the summit in a lot of ways: he holds the most expensive and longest contract in the history of the Baltimore Orioles.  Although the deal was ill-advised at the time, it was certainly not outlandish. 

Peter Angelos desired to re-sign Davis after the 2015 season.  He noted it in late September of that year to the press, a rare public statement on a player by the owner.  Angelos noted it again after the Winter Meetings, further solidifying what we all kind of knew, which was Angelos would move heaven and earth to get Davis back on the club.  It was noted that the Orioles front office largely did not agree with this approach to the 2015/16 offseason.

What many fans forget though is that Davis has another suitor.  Tigers Illich thought Davis to be the missing piece in Detroit.  He was certain that Davis could spend a year or two out in right field, something that Boras was stressing to everyone within earshot, before existing contracts would open up first base and designated hitter later in the contract.  It was rumored, and widely reported, that the Tigers were discussing the parameters of a contract around 190 MM against the wishes of the Tigers' front office.

What wound up happening is that the Tigers front office convinced ownership to hand out a deal to Justin Upton instead for 132 MM (well below the parameters discussed with Davis).  Davis went back hard to the Orioles, with Yeonis Cespedes circling, and signed a 7/161 MM deal with much deferred (making it worth more like 126 MM) two days after Upton inked.  It seemed to be very similar to how Baltimore approached Ivan Rodriguez and Javy Lopez a decade earlier in offering them both the same deal, waiting until someone came back to them and said yes.  Cespedes then went back to the Mets the following week on a 3/75 (a deal he would opt out of after the year was over and sign a staggering 4/110 deal after the season).

The contract has not been kind.  Davis' first year was fine with a 3.3 bWAR, but for someone who had six more years left to go on a contract, you certainly wanted a bit more production because he was entering typical decline years.

Standard Batting

Year	HR	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+
2016	38	.221	.332	.459	110
2017	26	.215	.309	.423	95
2018	13 (21)	.159	.242	.297	49
11 Y	280	.239	.321	.476	112

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/10/2018.

And decline he did.  Contact, walk rate, power, they have all declined.  In 2018, Davis is having one of the worst seasons in the history of the game.  At -2.2 bWAR, he would wind up around the 30th worst season ever out of 18,000 player seasons with more than 100 games played.

Under the terms of Davis' deal, that 126 MM should have translated into an expected return of about 12.7 bWAR.  Almost three full seasons in, Davis stands at a cumulative of 1 bWAR or 7.8% of what was expected.  This begs the question as to whether it truly was the worst contract extension or free agent signing in Orioles' history?  Let us cherry pick a few contracts and see how they shake out:

	2016 $	xWAR	bWAR	%
J.J. Hardy	44	4.2	1.7	40
Brian Roberts	57	6.7	1.0	15
Albert Belle	310	30	4.0	13
Glenn Davis	73	7.2	0.7	9.7
Chris Davis	126	12.7	1.0	7.8
Scott Erickson	153	14.5	0.1	0.7

One thing to note is that Albert Belle is uniquely on this list.  Before insurance companies got wise, the Orioles were able to secure a ~1.7 MM premium on Belle's contract that would pay out 11.7 MM per year for every year that he was out due to a permanent injury.  So, you could argue that the Orioles really paid Belle 29.9 MM, which would be a xWAR of 13.6 and that he achieved 29% of  his expected performance.  

Scott Erickson either did not qualify for the insurance premium or the Orioles were unable to secure one for him.  And you can see how much the Orioles put into him with what would be around a 5/153 deal in 2016 free agent land.  Sometimes those dollar figures (5/32) look so quaint back then that you do not see how much the deal actually was in that market.  Nowadays, you would think of that being if someone forked over that deal to Ervin Santana when the Orioles were trying to nab him on a one year deal and pair him with Ubaldo Jimenez.  Yes, Erickson was coming off of two 4 bWAR season, but that is an exceptional deal for someone who really was not an elite pitcher.

Maybe a percentage base is not the right way to look at it.  Perhaps a better way to look at it is how much money was sunk.

	Sunk $
J.J. Hardy	26.25
Brian Roberts	59.85
Glenn Davis	68.25
Albert Belle	100.8
Chris Davis	122.85
Scott Erickson	151.2

It does not change all that much.  Glenn Davis and Belle flip around. 

It should be noted though that Chris Davis' career is still active.  With another 1.2 bWAR, he will surpass Brian Roberts in % return.  With a couple more bWAR, he will move past Albert Belle in total sunk cost.  He certainly can make this contract become a slightly smaller albatross. 

However, given his -2.1 bWAR so far this year, he can sink lower.  A -1 bWAR moving forward would mean falling beneath Erickson in terms of percentage.  A -3 bWAR moving forward would put Davis as a sunk cost greater than Erickson.  Hopefully, that will not happen.

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In case you want some further reading on the value of WAR.
https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/10/15/4818740/how-much-does-a-win-really-cost
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-recent-history-of-free-agent-pricing/

An Appreciation Of J.J. Hardy

Before the Orioles acquired J.J. Hardy at the end of 2010, they had struggled mightily for a few years to find even a decent replacement at shortstop for the departed Miguel Tejada. After being traded before the 2008 season, Tejada returned to the Orioles in 2010 to play third base (pretty poorly) before he was dealt once again, this time to the Padres at the trade deadline. Tejada even signed with the Orioles one more time, in 2012, but he was never promoted to the majors and was released a few months later.

But this post isn't about Miguel Tejada. It's about Hardy. In the three seasons before Hardy arrived (2008-2010), the Orioles assembled the worst group of shortstops in all of baseball. By FanGraphs' version of WAR, the Mariners had the second-worst production from their shortstops in that span (-1.3). The Orioles, at -4.5, were more than three wins worse. (Baseball-Reference had the O's not quite as terrible, at -2.4 WAR over that span.) The list of nine shortstops during that run was, let's say, uninspiring: Robert Andino, Cesar Izturis (the best of the group), Luis Hernandez, Eider Torres, Julio Lugo, Alex Cintron, Brandon Fahey, Freddie Bynum, and Juan Castro. Some of those men could field well; none of them were very good hitters.

For whatever reason, the Twins wanted to move on from Hardy and the one year of arbitration left on his contract after the 2010 season. Andy MacPhail, then-president of baseball operations, took advantage, shipping Brett Jacobson and Jim Hoey to the Twins in exchange for Hardy and Brendan Harris.

That season, Hardy posted one of his best offensive campaigns (113 wRC+) en route to a 4+ WAR season (by both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference). But before that season had even ended, the O's signed Hardy to a relatively rare in-season extension in July. The deal was for three years and $22.25 million, and Hardy easily surpassed that value over the next few seasons (9 fWAR combined from 2012-2014).

The Orioles and Hardy weren't about to part ways yet. Right before the team's 2014 ALCS matchup against the Royals, Hardy signed another three-year extension, for $40 million (and a vesting option for 2018). This time, though, things didn't go nearly as well. After carrying such a huge workload the past few seasons - and in 2012 and 2013 in particular, when he played in 158 and 159 games, respectively - Hardy both struggled to stay healthy and produce at the plate.

He spent the first month of the 2015 season on the disabled list with a strained left shoulder, and he went on to post a career low (until this season) 51 wRC+. He maintained a solid glove, though, and bounced back at the plate next season (89 wRC+). He missed another month-plus during 2016 with a fractured left foot. In the meantime, back issues continued to plague him. Before the 2017 season started, he talked openly about his back pain and inability at times to find relief. Then, after getting off to an extremely slow start at the plate, he broke his right wrist in mid-June.

Obviously it was a shame to see Hardy get injured again. But in a sad way it was also a relief, because while there weren't many good options to replace him, there was also a reasonable case for Hardy shifting to the bench more often. The injury allowed the Orioles to avoid a major decision, and they may have even acquired their starting shortstop for the next few seasons.

The door is almost closed on Hardy's time in Baltimore, but he should always be recognized as one of the players who helped the Orioles in their return quest to relevancy. Besides his quality play for a number of years, the notoriously slow-footed Hardy also scored the winning run in the most exciting, feel-good postseason moment of the Buck Showalter/Dan Duquette era:



Listen to that crowd. Hardy didn't go out on top with the Orioles, as few rarely do. Hopefully his playing career isn't over, but even if it is, he helped to give many fans some wonderful memories. Whether that's a moral victory or not, it still matters.

O's Position Players Aren't Getting The Job Done Either

Fans already knew before the season that the Orioles would make a ton of roster moves in hopes of finding a couple of workable fringe roster solutions. That has always been the plan of action under Dan Duquette, and it's mostly helped (even if it is annoying and/or easy to mock). The goal is to avoid negative players, and sometimes that leads to finding a diamond in the rough or at least someone who can perform well for a stretch. Sometimes you find Miguel Gonzalez. And sometimes you give five disastrous innings to Edwin Jackson and move on (after way too much talk about his opt-out date and ability to both start and relieve). Oops!

What we didn't know is that many of the players the team relies on most would take steps back. That's where some of the criticism leveled at Duquette misses the mark. He has absolutely made mistakes. There have been bad signings and trades, and he surely regrets them. But the 2017 Orioles were mainly built around a core of veterans, and they are not performing well.

If you're looking for bright spots so far, there are few. There's Dylan Bundy, Trey Mancini, Jonathan Schoop, and Welington Castillo. That's really about it, unless you want to give a couple of nods to Brad Brach, Mychal Givens, Wade Miley (for not being a complete disaster until his last few starts), and Alec Asher for at least contributing something when he was acquired for little.

So who's underachieving? Keep in mind this is just a look at position players, as plenty of deserved criticism has already been handed out to Kevin Gausman, Chris Tillman, and Ubaldo Jimenez. (Remember wondering how the Orioles would compete while Tillman was out?)

Here are five of note:

J.J. Hardy: 39 wRC+, -0.8 WAR
Chris Davis: 104 wRC+, 0.9 WAR
Adam Jones: 89 wRC+, -0.1 WAR
Manny Machado: 83 wRC+, 1.3 WAR
Mark Trumbo: 91 wRC+, -0.3 WAR

Those are five of the six players (the other being Schoop) the Orioles were counting on as everyday players, and three of them have negative WAR numbers. That's really bad! Only Davis has a wRC+ over 100, though the major league average for first basemen is 118. In addition, he's in just the second year of his lucrative contract. Surely that isn't the kind of production the Orioles had in mind -- and now he's on the disabled list with an oblique injury.

In terms of wOBA, let's see how those five compare to their preseason ZiPS projections:

Machado: .301 vs. .363 (-62 points)
Hardy: .236 vs. .283 (-47 points)
Trumbo: .313 vs. .337 (-24 points)
Davis: .332 vs. .355 (-23 points)
Jones: .309 vs. .320 (-11 points)

Hardy has been truly awful at the plate and ranks as the second-worst qualified hitter in the majors, and yet Machado's struggles are the most noteworthy. He's the best player on the team and is barely ahead of Schoop in WAR, and only his outstanding defense is saving him right now. Maybe he's just been ridiculously unlucky; maybe he has an issue with making contact; or maybe he wanted to become even more of a power hitter and is searching for his identity at the plate. The last possibility seems more narrative driven, and anyway, Machado is so talented that you'd bet on a turnaround at seemingly any minute. Still, Machado playing at a superstar level would sure be helpful.

Some teams might be able to still win games with so many underperforming players, and that team would probably need an outstanding collection of starting pitchers. That team is not the Orioles.

If you're looking for any kind of silver lining if the Orioles end up in a position to sell, well, Machado is the only trade chip of note above. Hardy's terrible play has nullified any of his trade value (not to mention that his $14 million club option would vest with any trade). Jones looks worn down and has been on a steady decline; he also now has 10-and-5 rights and can reject any trade. Trumbo's three-year, $37.5 million deal seemed like a bargain, but that also requires much better offensive performance. And Davis? Nope!

There will be plenty of time to handicap the team's full collection of trade chips if the O's don't get out of this funk, but their trade options don't look nearly as good without including Machado and Zach Britton.

J.J. Hardy Needs To Make An Adjustment

J.J. Hardy is in what is likely the final year of his contract with the Baltimore Orioles. Sure, he’s got a $14 million option ($2 million buyout) for the 2018 season, but there is no chance that gets picked up if he continues to play the 2017 season the way he has started it. Interestingly enough, according to Cot’s Contracts, that 2018 option vests if he reaches 600 plate appearances in 2017, or a combined 1,150 combined plate appearances between the 2016 and 2017 season. He must also pass a team physical following the 2017, which history tells us can sometimes be a challenge. He’s not going to get to a combined 1,150 between 2016 and 2017, but he is currently on pace for 638 PA’s in 2017.

J.J. Hardy (photo via Keith Allison)

Vesting options aside, Hardy’s most recent contract hasn’t looked all that great for the Orioles, as he’s been worth 2.3 fWAR over the first two years of the deal for a total cost of $24 million (though due to lack of viable SS options available for a team in a competitive window one could argue that it’s not quite as bad as it looks – still not good though). The way 2017 is shaping up for Hardy, it has a chance to look even worse as he’s currently been worth -0.5 fWAR. Both DRS (-1) and UZR (-0.9) say that Hardy’s typically stellar defense has taken a step back this year (albeit in a very small sample size). But if you haven’t been paying attention (just kidding, I know you have), it’s Hardy’s hitting that has absolutely cratered the early part of his season. He’s hitting a (easy) career worst .203/.240/.276 that’s been good for a 37 wRC+. His walk rate is 2.0% below his career average and his K rate is 4.8% above his career average. His line drive rate is down (his fly ball rate is up…we’ll get to that in a second). There is literally nothing positive to discuss when it comes to Hardy’s offensive performance this year.

So why is this happening? Hardy is 34 years old, so it’s entirely possible that his natural physical abilities just aren’t what they used to be, though if that’s true, 2017 has so far been a very steep cliff to fall from. Hardy’s value as a hitter has always come via his power, which is much better than the typical MLB shortstop. But his power is strictly to left field (his pull side). In fact, only 10% of his home runs since 2009 have gone to center or right field. And this year, he is only pulling the ball 31.6% of the time, which is well below his career average of 44.2%. In fact, the last time he pulled the ball below 40% of the time (37.3% in 2009), Hardy finished the year with .229/.302/.357 line, good for a 75 wRC+. While Hardy’s increase in flyball rate is good considering his profile, the fact that he’s not pulling those flyballs is not promising.

As you can see in the figure below, Hardy’s strength as a hitter has always been a fastball in (and up).

This makes sense given his profile as a pull power hitter. As you can see in the progression of images below, pitchers have gradually thrown Hardy inside fastballs less often as his career progressed. They appear to be doing so even less in the early months of 2017.

So Hardy is seeing fewer inside fastballs than ever in 2017. So what is happening to those pitches that find their way into that zone? Not much, as Hardy isn’t turning on them and hitting them with authority like he used to.

Additionally, while I don’t want to lean on exit velocity too much for this analysis with only 1.25 years of data, there is a stark difference between Hardy’s exit velocity on inside pitches between 2016 and 2017 (exit velocity shown is for all pitches thrown, not just fastballs).

2016

2017

It’s possible that Hardy’s bat has just slowed down and he isn’t getting around on those inside pitches as quickly as he used to. It happens as a player ages. With Hardy’s injury history, it’s also possible that he’s not playing at 100%, but we have no way of knowing that. Assuming he’s healthy, he may need to start cheating on inside fastballs or change his approach and commit to hitting the ball the other way, most likely sacrificing his power in the process. He may need to do both, since cheating on the inside fastball will only last for so long until the league catches on.

It’s still early in the season, so there is time for Hardy to turn his dismal start around. However, it’s entirely likely the J.J. Hardy is no longer the hitter he used to be, and that may be ok, if he can find a way to successfully adjust his strategy at the plate. Even if that is the case and Hardy turns his season around, the Orioles may want to hope that he doesn’t reach 600 plate appearances.

Spring Training 2017: Three O's With Something To Prove

It’s February, but DMV-residents were treated to a preview of spring over the weekend.

Temperatures surged past 60, and streets were marked by the symphony of skateboards, children, and barking dogs.

Spring represents a whole bunch of clichés about new beginnings and slate wiping. For baseball, of course, it means spring training is finally on the doorstep.

For some players, it represents a chance to make a new mark. For others, it is a chance to change an old one. Here are three Orioles who have the most at stake this spring training:

Tyler Wilson, RHP 

In 2016, Tyler Wilson went on a 10-game stretch where he posted a 4.58 ERA, while averaging nearly six innings a start. Then, he hit a rocky patch and was shipped off to Norfolk. By the end of the season he was back, but was relegated to random, bullpen work.

With Chris Tillman (shoulder) out for spring training and questionable to begin the season, a number of players stand to benefit. Wilson is in that group, which also includes the Mike Wrights and Logan Verretts of the world. (Ed. note: After some recent moves, Vidal Nuno and Gabriel Ynoa are also in the mix.)

Wilson is an undersized right-hander with a 90 MPH fastball and an average change-up and slider. At 27, he’s too old to be considered a true prospect, but he has shown incremental improvement over the years.

The former UVA-standout is a control specialist, which is a polite way of saying low strikeout-totals.  However, he did post a reasonable K-rate in AAA (7.4 K/9 between three seasons), which translated to 4.9 in the big leagues.     

He needs to do a better job of keeping the ball in the yard (15 home runs allowed in 94 innings) but, realistically, what you want from your fifth starter is a guy who can hold his own against big-league hitters and absorb innings.  Wilson has proven he can do that reasonably well. 

With a good spring training performance, he can reinsert himself into the starter-discussion, and make long relief closer to his floor – not his ceiling.

Trey Mancini/Joey Rickard 1B/OF

Okay, I cheated, but I couldn’t resist throwing these players in together because, well, they strike me as similar players who are at similar crossroads, career-wise.

They are both right-handed hitters around the same age (Mancini is 24, Rickard is 25.  Mancini has more pop but Rickard has more defensive-versatility in his ability to play all three outfield spots.  That makes them prototypical players for the Showalter regime.  On the other, it makes them harder to stand out, in an already-crowded field.*

Currently, Rickard has the larger portfolio of major league success, appearing in 85 games last year. He posted .696 OPS in his first taste of big-league action before succumbing to season-ending thumb surgery.

The Orioles responded, this off-season, by signing everyone under the sun. They traded for Seth Smith, a lefty who can play both corner spots. They brought back Mark Trumbo, who will split time between right field and DH. They sent spring training invites to veteran outfielders Craig Gentry, Logan Schaefer, Chris Dickerson, and David Washington.

And, don't forget Baltimore's rule 5 selections Anthony Santander and Aneury Tavarez, who both play - you guessed it - outfield positions.  Throw in incumbent left fielder, Hyun Soo Kim, and you've got yourself a party. 

As for Mancini, he made a memorable - albeit brief - 2016 debut, smacking three home runs in five games. A first baseman by trade, he has but one obstacle in his path. Unfortunately, that obstacle (some guy named Chris Davis) is in year two of a $161 million, mega-deal and is going nowhere.  While Mancini could split time between first and DH, Trumbo's presence means opportunities for the latter would be limited. 

Mancini and Rickard might be squeezed out by the numbers game.  Then again, the duo could make that decision much harder by simply raking, this spring. At the very least, it would improve their stock as trade bait, if Baltimore chooses to shore up areas where it is not so loaded.

J.J. Hardy

It might seem an odd choice to include the 34-year-old veteran on this list. Hardy won’t be busting his butt to make the team. However, he does enter spring training with things to prove.

For starters, he needs to flash some of that old pop he used to show so readily. In every full-season he played, from 2007 to 2013, Hardy hit no fewer than 22 home runs. Up to that point, his career-slugging percentage was .428.

It’s been a different story, the past three years. Injuries have sapped his playing time and affected his counting stats, but he hasn’t exactly been lighting the world on fire when he has played. From 2014-16, he’s slugged a pedestrian .346.

Part of it could simply be attributed to a natural product of aging. However, while everyone gets old, not everyone has a chance to play professional baseball. Hardy not only has that chance, but he is young enough to merit one last, multi-year contract for big money if he is motivated enough. 

2017 is the last guaranteed year of the extension he signed in 2014. The Orioles hold a club option for 2018, but would be unlikely to exercise it if Hardy tanks at the plate again.

Hardy is still an excellent defender, but glove-first middle infielders can be had for much cheaper than his $14 million option. Plus, the Orioles have Manny Machado, whose natural position is shortstop.

However, if he can post a respectable OBP, with 15-20 home runs, the Orioles might be open to negotiating another extension. Or, if the club is out of contention, he could be interesting trade candidate, if he is willing to waive his 10-5 rights.

Getting off to a fast start would definitely help. With that in mind, Hardy needs to show up for spring training showing that he’s healthy, focused, and is seeing the ball well.

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Update: The field got even more crowded yesterday as Baltimore signed veteran outfielder, Michael Bourn, to a minor-league deal.  He will join the O's in big league camp where he will compete for a job.

So Much Depends On A J.J. Hardy Glistening With Sweat

Three weeks ago when I started to write this post, the idea of J.J. Hardy succumbing to an injury was something projected and apparently misdirected.  The concern I have held since last September focused on Hardy's torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder.  The injury hampered him at the plate last year, resulting in an average exit velocity of 88 mph.  That drop was in part due to reduced strength, but also in changed mechanics.  The pain was severe enough that Hardy drastically shortened his stroke and relied more on his throwing shoulder and forearms to decelerate the bat as opposed to his lead shoulder.

This past offseason, Hardy increased his weight lifting to strengthen the muscles around his labrum.  Surgery on a second labrum tear has a rather poor prognosis and Hardy, at this stage in his career and having experienced a labrum surgery in his younger days, did not desire to go under the knife.  Therefore, the approach was to leave the torn labrum as is and let the muscles provide the stability.  In response, his exit velocity has popped up to around 96-98 mph.

The hope was that with a stronger shoulder that Hardy would revert back to his 20 home run days.  Earlier this season, a few writers bathed in the wonder of Hardy's two home run night in Boston.  Perusing the box score, that looked like a marvelous step back in time for Hardy.  However, if you actually watched the game, then you saw both home runs were squeakers around the Pesky Pole and likely would have been outs or, optimistically, doubles in other parks.  That said, the strengthened shoulder has appeared to improve Hardy's ability to hit doubles and right now he is performing as a league average shortstop at the plate (244/291/410, .302 wOBA, 0.5 fWAR).  Add that to his solid play at short and you have a fringe All Star level of play.

However, Hardy is now injured.  No, it is not his shoulder, which admittedly could go at any moment.  He broke his foot with a time table ranging from four to eight weeks.  Unfortunately for the Orioles, whose farm system has largely been neglected over the years, there is no immediate replacement.  This is not uncommon though.  Few teams have the ability to readily replace any player who goes down at any position.  What is particularly tough is that the Orioles should be one of those clubs.  Their infield is effectively Leftover Salmon.  Between songs, the Orioles starters can exchange instruments.  Schoop can arguably play second, short, or third.  Machado is a world class third baseman with a glove and a lesser star at shortstop.  All the club needs is a useful second baseman, shortstop, or third baseman and the world will continue to spin.

What the club has are broken veteran toys.  Some talk places Pedro Alvarez or Chris Davis at third base.  This should immediately be seen as a horrific mistake.  To walk through this, let us establish a few facts.  One, Alvarez was so poor at playing third base for the Pirates that he was pressed into service at first base and then sparingly used when he failed at that.  He would be replacement level at best.  That would cost the club between one and two games in comparison to what Hardy provided.  It is hard to imagine Davis being much better.  His significantly better bat would likely be cancelled out by an even worse ability to handle third base.  All of this would create an awful sort of synergy when paired with the current crop of Orioles' left fielders.  Missed balls at third will be doubles instead of outs.

Options not yet on the club include Ryan Flaherty and Jimmy Paredes.  Paredes will make people pine for Wilson Betemit.  Flaherty can replace Hardy's bat, but his adequate glove is a fall from Hardy's.  Paul Janish is another possibility out there.  Janish may be the best defensive shortstop in Orioles system, but you would not be able to tell from a stat line whether he was in the batter's box or if the pitcher pitched to no one.

There is nothing else left.  In the end, a loss of maybe a win or two does not seem like much.  One might also consider that this club was projected as a fringe playoff team.  That Gallardo has been a mess and that the club has holes in the corner outfield in terms of defense.  That makes a couple wins potentially quite meaningful when one looks forward to the playoffs.  It also makes one quite thankful for the Orioles season opening winning streak.

So much depends on a J.J. Hardy
Glistening with Sweat
Between two white bases

Play Indexing: Yup, J.J. Hardy Was Bad In 2015

You know a big reason why J.J. Hardy was awful offensively last season. But it's still startling to see just how bad he was.

Hardy's batting line of .219/.253/.311 was among the worst shortstop seasons in the Expansion Era. And here's how Hardy's on-base percentage in particular ranked among players who played at least 75 percent of their games at shortstop and received at least 400 plate appearances since 1990:

Rk	Player	OBP	PA	Year	Age	Tm	G	BA	SLG	OPS
1	Alex Gonzalez	.229	407	2000	23	FLA	109	.200	.319	.548
2	J.J. Hardy	.253	437	2015	32	BAL	114	.219	.311	.564
3	Cesar Izturis	.253	468	2002	22	LAD	135	.232	.303	.556
4	Jack Wilson	.255	425	2001	23	PIT	108	.223	.295	.550
5	Juan Uribe	.257	495	2006	27	CHW	132	.235	.441	.698
6	Alvaro Espinoza	.258	472	1990	28	NYY	150	.224	.274	.532
7	Alfredo Griffin	.258	502	1990	32	LAD	141	.210	.254	.512
8	Alcides Escobar	.259	642	2013	26	KCR	158	.234	.300	.559
9	Angel Berroa	.259	503	2006	28	KCR	132	.234	.333	.592
10	Khalil Greene	.260	423	2008	28	SDP	105	.213	.339	.599
11	Cristian Guzman	.260	492	2005	27	WSN	142	.219	.314	.574
12	Neifi Perez	.260	585	2002	29	KCR	145	.236	.303	.564

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/29/2015.

You had to figure Cesar Izturis's name would show up. And it's moderately surprising that Deivi Cruz's didn't.

Although many impact free agents remain on the open market, the Orioles still have several holes on their projected 25-man roster. They clearly have some question marks, and unfortunately Hardy has to be considered one of them.

Barring any kind of setback with his shoulder, which is something that can't be ruled out anymore, he'll be the shortstop on opening day and for much of the year. But any kind of offensive contribution may end up being a bonus. And even though the Orioles don't seem to have much interest in trying to trade Hardy, he obviously wouldn't be easy to move anyway. He'll make $12.5 million in 2016 and $14 million in 2017, and his $14 million club option in 2018 ($2 million buyout) is fully guaranteed if he's traded (per Cot's). Good luck getting another team to pick up that tab.

The Orioles have some positions to upgrade, so they don't really have the luxury of worrying about Hardy. But fans do. A bounce-back of sorts almost has to be coming, but it might not be as big as fans anticipate.

Getting Rid Of Gausman

The title gives away a little bit of the following role play between me and fellow Depot writer, Joe Reisel.  The idea is to try to figure out how to improve the Orioles in a meaningful way through trade.  Yes, the club is thin and has few assets, but it does have some pieces that are of interest to other teams.  The following interchange has been lightly edited (Joe can yell at me if he sees fit).

Dan Duquette: Jed, baby, it is the Double D.  Congratulations on getting the playoff spirit back in Wrigleyville.  Not sure how you got Arrieta his groove back, but you are welcome.  I noticed that you have been shaking the bushes for cost-controlled pitching as well as looking to lower payroll.  While we do not have as impressive of budget capacity as you all do, we are able to take on some salary and you have a player that interests us: Jorge Soler.

His potential power and his...well, potential everything...is what we are looking for.  We know you guys are frustrated with him and that he has yet to become the hitter you all thought he could be.  We are willing to throw him out there over the next few years and see what shakes.  You asked about Mike Wright last summer and we are willing now to deal him.  You think we can do a Soler for Wright deal or center it around Wright?

You might be asking two questions: why Soler?  Why Wright?  Those are fair questions.  First, Jorge Soler's prospect sheen has been tarnished by unimpressive play and nagging injuries.

Year	Age	AgeDif	Tm	Lg	Lev	PA	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
2012	20	-0.7	2 Teams	2 Lgs	A-Rk	149	5	12	19	.299	.369	.463
2013	21	-1.8	Daytona	FLOR	A+	236	8	21	38	.281	.343	.467
2014	22	-3.0	3 Teams	3 Lgs	AAA-AA-Rk	236	15	33	48	.340	.432	.700
2014	22	-6.2	Chicago	NL	MLB	97	5	6	24	.292	.330	.573
2015	23	-3.7	Iowa	PCL	AAA	16	0	3	4	.154	.313	.154
2015	23	-5.2	Chicago	NL	MLB	404	10	32	121	.262	.324	.399
MLB (2 seasons)					MLB	501	15	38	145	.268	.325	.433

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/18/2015.

Those numbers alone appear as if there may be some grand next step waiting to happen, but they do not show how dreadful he was in the outfield.  He certainly has value and is locked into a 5/23 MM contract.

Mike Wright?  Yes, that is a low ball offer.  Opposing scouts gave Wright rave reviews in the Spring and he produced in Norfolk.  He certainly was a bigger chip in the early part of the 2015 season than he is now, but he is someone to wave around.  One person told me in March that Wright was by far the most interesting pitching prospect the Orioles had and that he was on their radar.  I do not know where he stands now.  Certainly, the season has not been kind to Hunter Harvey or Dylan Bundy.

Jed Hoyer: We're not in a position to swap our projected starting right fielder for a high-risk, medium-reward gamble. You do remember that Soler will play 2016 as a 24-year-old and Wright will play 2016 as a 26-year-old, don't you? Yes, Soler's had injury problems, but he has both a higher floor and a higher ceiling than Wright.
We're in a position to win now. If we're going to deal Soler, we're going to need someone who's going to really make a difference. You have exactly one of those - Kevin Gausman. Gausman, like Soler, has tantalized with sporadic brilliance but hasn't been consistent. Both have legitimate chances at being key components of championship teams. Financially and in terms of team control, they're pretty much a wash.

Given your organization's position, I know you can't swallow a Soler-for-Gausman even-up trade. So, we're prepared to help you by giving you assets for your system. Jeimer Candelario would instantly become at least your second-best position player prospect and he's blocked here; we'll include him. We have two major-league-ready, hard-throwing right-handed relief pitcher candidates in Corey Black and Carl Edwards Jr.; we can't use both of them so take your pick. And we've got a number of good arms a long way from the majors; might you be interested in a Carson Sands? 

So, my counter-proposal for Soler is Soler, Candelario, Black/Edwards, and Sands for Gausman. 

If you're willing to wait awhile, we need to see who's going to play center field for us next year. If we do get someone, or perhaps more accurately if we know who'll be playing there next season, I might be interested in Wright for the right price - say, Arismendy Alcantara. Or, we could explore something entirely different ...

Do not get me wrong, this is a fantastic deal.  Candelario and Sands are solid prospects and I would think to be able to get both of them would be a major get for the Orioles.  However, it concerns me that the net change here is an increase in money and the hole in right simply being pushed over to starting pitcher.  If the Orioles were in a rebuilding mode, this would be an excellent deal to seek and I would not think twice about it.  However, I need to find something more useful for the MLB club, so, regrettably I have to decline even though this deal looks great for the club long term.

DD: Understandable, we had to start somewhere and I thought Wright might be a good kernel to build upon.  As you, we have discussed Gausman and he is not off limits.  Losing him will put us in a tough position for 2016, but it is something to explore.  However, your offer points toward a rebuild and we need more value now for us to compete today.

Soler costs a little bit and if we lose Gausman we need some savings in cost in order for us to be able to go out into the market and find a dependable backend rotation arm.  As such, we need some cost defrayed.  We also are aware that in the next few years that you have some big arbitration raises that you will need to deal with.  What I will suggest might be a difficult loss, but I think it works for both of us.

We think the following makes sense: Soler and Starlin Castro for Gausman and J.J. Hardy.  Yes, we all remember you all calling around to everyone this past summer about whether anyone was interested in Castro.  We were not then, but we could be now.  This deal will not only net you a potential top of the rotation pitcher, but you would be dealing out two, admit it, spare pieces for roughly 20 MM in long-term savings.  We can handle that bump up in salary, but you may have some troubles with guys like Bryant breaking the arbitration bank.   

Yes, you may be worried about Hardy.  His shoulder is a mess, you have to check off on that.  However, it is his non-throwing shoulder, so he still is a great fielder.  His bat?  It probably is no worse than what Castro did this season.  If Kris Bryant's defense becomes a concern, you can push him into the outfield and have Hardy's defense soak up batted balls.  Plus, if Hardy breaks down, you have Addison Russell waiting to move over.  You get that flexibility, plus you get to turn Kevin Gausman into another pitching God.

For us, we hopefully solve one of our corner outfield spots and settle on an infield.  Yes, both Soler and Castro have question marks attached to them, but we like that we know how much they are going to cost and how it enables us to chase a decent arm for our rotation.  Losing Gausman most certainly hurts, but this would be worth it to us.

Are we closer?  Do you want to talk Kyle Schwarber for Gausman straight up?

This was a direction I did not want to go in.  Gausman is a cost controlled pitcher who is at worst an average pitcher and at best is a near ace.  However, I feel more comfortable dealing him out if I can essentially use Hardy's salary to replace Hardy and fill left field.  That is like finding another 13 MM in my pocket.  Only issue I really see from the Cubs is whether they can spin Castro for a deal better than an effective salary dump in Hardy.  Hardy is a pretty expensive defense minded utility man.

JH: When I first saw your proposal, I was not positively disposed. Not only were we giving up two of our most valuable tradable assets for an unproven pitcher, we would be taking on $40 million in dead money over the next three years. Upon further review, I think this trade might work for us. 

Let me start by describing the worst-case scenario for us, excluding serious injury. Kevin Gausman doesn't develop; J.J. Hardy becomes the infield equivalent of Edwin Jackson, and Jorge Soler becomes Nelson Cruz. (We're not ready to right Starlin Castro off, but we won't regret trading him in this deal even if does find himself.) The big disadvantage of this might be the money; we lose our flexibility to fill our holes in the future. We'd be entering 2016 without a center fielder if Fowler leaves, and also without a right fielder. But further reflection leads me to conclude that this deal is certainly worth bringing to my bosses. 

Let's look at the money. Hardy's 2018 option becomes guaranteed after this trade, so we're on the hook for $40 million over the next three seasons. Over that time, we'd be paying Castro about $28.5 million. I believe that Gausman is arbitration-eligible after 2016; I don't have any real idea what he'll earn in arbitration but let's assume it'd be a total of $25 million over 2017 and 2018. So, essentially, we'd get Gausman for three years and roughly $40 million. Comparing that to the probable $60 million it'd cost to add a Jordan Zimmermann, Gausman could be a bargain. We should be able to fill our center-field hole for the difference. 

Of course, with Addison Russell inked in at shortstop, Hardy won't play there. We'll be hoping he can play second base, which would allow us to move either Kris Bryant or (more likely) Javier Baez to Soler's corner outfield spot. If Hardy fails there, we'll have to scramble or hope Chris Coghlan is for real. 

But the upshot is that Gausman and Hardy for Castro and Soler is a deal worth considering, and one I'll definitely mention to Theo and Tom.

So we wound up on the following deal:

Baltimore Orioles receive RF Jorge Soler and SS Starlin Castro
Chicago Cubs receive SP Kevin Gausman and SS J.J. Hardy

From my view (and I think Joe's), this seemed like something slightly in the Orioles favor because Hardy is in no way worth 3/40 and to what extent does Gausman's value make up or surpass that?  To get some idea, I asked someone in the industry what they thought and he responded, "That is generally not a crazy deal.  Hardy is worthless to them, but Gausman is a big prize and saves them a great deal of room in their roster.  I would want to shop Castro around to others to see what I could get for him, but this would be something I would keep in my back pocket.  For the Cubs, I'd probably downgrade the talks and focus on something like Soler for Zach Britton.  That should work for both sides.  If I was the Orioles, only way I would want to deal Gausman would be if Kyle Schwarber was coming back."

I sent a poll out while we were doing this for you all to answer on Twitter.  The terms in the poll are less favorable with the 3MM difference for 2016 tossed in.  Still, you all were slightly in agreement to make the deal.

What would you prefer?

— Camden Depot (@CamdenDepot) November 14, 2015