Spring Training 2017: Three O's With Something To Prove

It’s February, but DMV-residents were treated to a preview of spring over the weekend.

Temperatures surged past 60, and streets were marked by the symphony of skateboards, children, and barking dogs.

Spring represents a whole bunch of clichés about new beginnings and slate wiping. For baseball, of course, it means spring training is finally on the doorstep.

For some players, it represents a chance to make a new mark. For others, it is a chance to change an old one. Here are three Orioles who have the most at stake this spring training:

Tyler Wilson, RHP 

In 2016, Tyler Wilson went on a 10-game stretch where he posted a 4.58 ERA, while averaging nearly six innings a start. Then, he hit a rocky patch and was shipped off to Norfolk. By the end of the season he was back, but was relegated to random, bullpen work.

With Chris Tillman (shoulder) out for spring training and questionable to begin the season, a number of players stand to benefit. Wilson is in that group, which also includes the Mike Wrights and Logan Verretts of the world. (Ed. note: After some recent moves, Vidal Nuno and Gabriel Ynoa are also in the mix.)

Wilson is an undersized right-hander with a 90 MPH fastball and an average change-up and slider. At 27, he’s too old to be considered a true prospect, but he has shown incremental improvement over the years.

The former UVA-standout is a control specialist, which is a polite way of saying low strikeout-totals.  However, he did post a reasonable K-rate in AAA (7.4 K/9 between three seasons), which translated to 4.9 in the big leagues.     

He needs to do a better job of keeping the ball in the yard (15 home runs allowed in 94 innings) but, realistically, what you want from your fifth starter is a guy who can hold his own against big-league hitters and absorb innings.  Wilson has proven he can do that reasonably well. 

With a good spring training performance, he can reinsert himself into the starter-discussion, and make long relief closer to his floor – not his ceiling.

Trey Mancini/Joey Rickard 1B/OF

Okay, I cheated, but I couldn’t resist throwing these players in together because, well, they strike me as similar players who are at similar crossroads, career-wise.

They are both right-handed hitters around the same age (Mancini is 24, Rickard is 25.  Mancini has more pop but Rickard has more defensive-versatility in his ability to play all three outfield spots.  That makes them prototypical players for the Showalter regime.  On the other, it makes them harder to stand out, in an already-crowded field.*

Currently, Rickard has the larger portfolio of major league success, appearing in 85 games last year. He posted .696 OPS in his first taste of big-league action before succumbing to season-ending thumb surgery.

The Orioles responded, this off-season, by signing everyone under the sun. They traded for Seth Smith, a lefty who can play both corner spots. They brought back Mark Trumbo, who will split time between right field and DH. They sent spring training invites to veteran outfielders Craig Gentry, Logan Schaefer, Chris Dickerson, and David Washington.

And, don't forget Baltimore's rule 5 selections Anthony Santander and Aneury Tavarez, who both play - you guessed it - outfield positions.  Throw in incumbent left fielder, Hyun Soo Kim, and you've got yourself a party. 

As for Mancini, he made a memorable - albeit brief - 2016 debut, smacking three home runs in five games. A first baseman by trade, he has but one obstacle in his path. Unfortunately, that obstacle (some guy named Chris Davis) is in year two of a $161 million, mega-deal and is going nowhere.  While Mancini could split time between first and DH, Trumbo's presence means opportunities for the latter would be limited. 

Mancini and Rickard might be squeezed out by the numbers game.  Then again, the duo could make that decision much harder by simply raking, this spring. At the very least, it would improve their stock as trade bait, if Baltimore chooses to shore up areas where it is not so loaded.

J.J. Hardy

It might seem an odd choice to include the 34-year-old veteran on this list. Hardy won’t be busting his butt to make the team. However, he does enter spring training with things to prove.

For starters, he needs to flash some of that old pop he used to show so readily. In every full-season he played, from 2007 to 2013, Hardy hit no fewer than 22 home runs. Up to that point, his career-slugging percentage was .428.

It’s been a different story, the past three years. Injuries have sapped his playing time and affected his counting stats, but he hasn’t exactly been lighting the world on fire when he has played. From 2014-16, he’s slugged a pedestrian .346.

Part of it could simply be attributed to a natural product of aging. However, while everyone gets old, not everyone has a chance to play professional baseball. Hardy not only has that chance, but he is young enough to merit one last, multi-year contract for big money if he is motivated enough. 

2017 is the last guaranteed year of the extension he signed in 2014. The Orioles hold a club option for 2018, but would be unlikely to exercise it if Hardy tanks at the plate again.

Hardy is still an excellent defender, but glove-first middle infielders can be had for much cheaper than his $14 million option. Plus, the Orioles have Manny Machado, whose natural position is shortstop.

However, if he can post a respectable OBP, with 15-20 home runs, the Orioles might be open to negotiating another extension. Or, if the club is out of contention, he could be interesting trade candidate, if he is willing to waive his 10-5 rights.

Getting off to a fast start would definitely help. With that in mind, Hardy needs to show up for spring training showing that he’s healthy, focused, and is seeing the ball well.

-----

Update: The field got even more crowded yesterday as Baltimore signed veteran outfielder, Michael Bourn, to a minor-league deal.  He will join the O's in big league camp where he will compete for a job.

Four More Orioles' Prospects with the 2016 Tides

Joe Reisel's Archives

In a previous article, I summarized my impressions of the five best prospects (according to Baseball America's pre-season rankings) to play at AAA Norfolk in 2016. Five more of BA's top thirty Orioles' prospects played at Norfolk in 2016, and in this article I will cover them.

Tyler Wilson, pitcher (#19)

Could he become the next Kyle Hendricks or Josh Tomlin?

One of the more notable facets of the 2016 World Series is that both teams - the Chicago Cubs and the Cleveland Indians - got surprising performances out of starting pitchers with subpar "stuff" but very good-to-great command and control. One of the Orioles' better pitching prospects over the past few years has been Tyler Wilson, a pitcher with fringy stuff and very good command and control. Given the success of Kyle Hendricks (with the Cubs) and Josh Tomlin (with the Indians), it's natural to wonder if Wilson will develop into a pitcher with that level of success.

It's very unlikely that Wilson will ever have the level of success Hendricks had this season. (Of course, it's doubtful that Hendricks will ever again have the level of success he had this season.) I was surprised to discover that Tyler Wilson is actually 2 1/2 months older than Kyle Hendricks, which may not mean a whole lot but does tend to demolish the idea that Wilson is a hot young prospect. More to the point, in his minor-league time Wilson has walked 2.15 batters per nine innings, but Hendricks walked 1.61. In the major leagues in 2016, Wilson struck out 5.27 batters per nine innings (94 innings total), exactly the same as Hendricks did in 80 big-league innings in 2014 (80 innings total) - but Hendricks walked 1.68 per nine innings as opposed to Wilson's 2.30. Hendricks has been an exceptional pitcher and it's very unlikely Wilson will become that good.

Josh Tomlin's a similar story. Tomlin came to the majors at age 25 - just as Wilson did - and in his age 26 season struck out even fewer batters per nine innings than Wilson - 4.98 vs. 5.27. But Tomlin, like Hendricks, walked fewer batters than Tomlin did - 1.14 vs 2.30. The next season, Tomlin's walk rate nearly doubled (to a still-outstanding 2.18) while his strikeout rate stayed the same - and Tomlin was ineffective. He spent the next couple of seasons re-establishing himself, and now is an effective fifth starter-type with a walk rate around 1.00 and a strikeout rate around 7.00.

So, Wilson has to improve both his control and his strikeout rate to be an effective pitcher. It's not that there aren't effective pitchers with his profile - it's a question of whether Wilson is good enough.

One other issue is that both Hendricks and Tomlin got their starts with bad teams and patient managers, so they were able to stay in the rotation for a full year and learn to pitch in the major leagues. The Orioles are a contender and Buck Showalter hasn't shown much patience with young starters, so if Wilson has four bad starts in a row he'll likely be pulled from the rotation. A pitcher like Wilson, who has to rely on command and control, needs consistent work. He won't get that with these Orioles. 

Should he be in the Orioles' 2017 rotation?

It may sound heretical to say so, but the Orioles should probably plan on using Ubaldo Jimenez, Yovanni Gallardo, and/or Wade Miley as their fourth and fifth starters behind Kevin Gausman, Chris Tillman, and Dylan Bundy. The Orioles have invested so much money in those contracts that they should give them a chance, see if they have anything left. I believe Wilson has one option year left, so it would make sense to have him start the year in Norfolk as a starting pitcher, waiting to be promoted if the three veterans flame out.

Oliver Drake, relief pitcher (#21)

Could he handle a role in the Orioles' bullpen?

For some reason, it's been believed that Drake hasn't been successful in the major leagues - but he has been. He's pitched 33 2/3 innings, with a 3.48 ERA, 10.2 strikeout / 9 innings pitched, and even a 1.277 WHIP. His control hasn't been great, and that's probably why he's not being perceived as a success.

As I wrote earlier this year, I think one reason Drake is viewed skeptically is because he relies on a trick pitch, his splitter/forkball. I think Buck Showalter might believe that major-league hitters will lay off that pitch and force Drake to throw more and more hittable strikes. But my earlier investigation suggested that minor-league hitters weren't swinging at non-strikes, so in my opinion there's no justification for thinking he can't get major-league hitters out.

Drake isn't a long reliever, so it's hard to see exactly where he would fit in a bullpen already featuring Brad Brach, Mychal Givens, and an expensive Darren O'Day. Buck has amply demonstrated that he doesn't manage his bullpen creatively - he assigns typical roles to each pitcher and keeps the pitcher rigidly in his role - so Drake may have to hope to go to another organization. As a 30-year-old relief pitcher who has yet to establish himself in the major leagues, he doesn't have a lot of trade value.

Parker Bridwell, pitcher (#22)

I only saw Bridwell pitch once, the last two innings of a blowout Tides' win. In his two innings, he struck out five while walking one, allowing him to score on a single (after defensive indifference and a wild pitch.)

Ariel Miranda, starting pitcher (#23)

Will trading him for Wade Miley come back to haunt the Orioles?

I wrote shortly after the trade that Ariel Miranda, a fly-ball pitcher, was unlikely to help the Orioles much and it was reasonable to trade him for Wade Miley. Over the rest of the season, Miranda pitched effectively for Seattle while Miley pitched ineffectively for the Orioles.

Obviously, if Miranda continues to pitch as well as he did with the Mariners, and Wade Miley continues to pitch poorly, then the trade will come back to haunt the Orioles. There are several questions about Miranda - (1) can he continue to pitch at that level; (2) can he pitch at that level for a full season; (3) how would he have pitched at Camden Yards (which is a much worse park for pitchers.) The third question is unanswerable, but we could look at 27-year-old pitchers who had a 115 ERA+ in 56 innings and see if they could sustain that level.

Actually, though, we can't, because all the recent pitchers who pitched that well at that age were relievers. So Miranda 2016 season was unique and we'll just have to wait and see how he does.

Mike Yastrzemski, outfielder (#25)

Is he a real prospect?

"Yaz" is a "hustle" player, a guy who isn't very good but impresses everyone - especially impressionable fans - with his all-out play. These guys are usually good defensive players with good-but-not-great speed, who run out every ground ball and go first-to-third whenever they can. Fans who complain about the money paid to baseball players make rave about these guys, saying that they play the game "the way it should be played." That's Mike Yastrzemski.

The problem with Yaz is that he doesn't do much besides hustle. He gets good reads on fly balls and throws to the right base most of the time, and he has a little speed. But he doesn't have power; he doesn't draw walks; and he doesn't hit for a high average, so he's a black hole in the lineup.

I can't see any circumstances - even desperation - in which he'd be a regular outfielder. I can see him making a team as a fourth outfielder type, and even keeping that job if he hits .250. But there's going to be a season in which he hits .205 or .165, and that will be the end of his career.

Orioles Count On A Collection Of Swingmen Because They Have To

Teams with an average to decent starting rotation don't really have a need for more than, say, one long reliever. The Orioles, though, have a bad rotation and currently have several swingmen on the roster: Dylan Bundy, Ubaldo Jimenez, Vance Worley, Odrisamer Despaigne, and Tyler Wilson. Yes, Bundy is slated in the rotation right now and is firmly in the team's long-term starter plans, but he was used as a multiple-inning reliever earlier in the year and it's at least possible he shifts back to that role before the end of the season.

Jimenez is in the swingman role for two reasons: 1) He's been terrible and lost his regular starting gig; and 2) He's only still on the team because the Orioles still haven't figured out a convenient way to unload his contract (which they've been trying to do since late 2014).

Besides Bundy, the real hero of the long relief corps is Worley. In 62.1 innings out of the bullpen and in four starts, he's posted a 2.89 ERA and has been getting a bunch of ground balls (48%). His peripheral numbers aren't as good, with a FIP near 4, but that's hardly awful. And considering the O's plucked him from waivers and are paying him $2.6 million this season, those are decent, and much-needed, results.

Despaigne has a strikeout rate under six and a walk rate of nearly five, but somehow he's managed to pitch 24 innings without being a complete disaster. And Wilson has had his ups and downs, but in limited duty has been more effective out of the bullpen - when he's not asked to work through a lineup more than once or twice.

This is far from a perfect situation, and it's something the Orioles have been dealing with all season. Ideally, the O's would employ starters capable of pitching six innings and then handing the ball off to Mychal Givens, Darren O'Day, Brad Brach, and Zach Britton. Surely that's what Dan Duquette hoped for when bringing aboard Jimenez in 2013 and Gallardo this past offseason. And obviously, that's not the case this season. O's starters have thrown the third fewest innings in the majors. Enter the team's collection of long relievers.

It's unclear exactly how the addition of Wade Miley will change things. Most likely, he'll be slotted into the rotation with Chris Tillman, Kevin Gausman, Yovani Gallardo, and Bundy (for now). The Orioles need to create a spot on both the 25- and 40-man rosters, and the O's have also been working with a three-man bench lately. Wilson and Despaigne are the two long relievers who have options, so likely one of them will be sent down. You'd have to think the O's would prefer to jettison Jimenez from the roster, but that appears unlikely.

Buck Showalter will need to keep going to this cast of characters, and unfortunately, this could be the case next year as well. The only real hope is that this version of Tillman is for real (a dangerous assumption), and that Gausman and Bundy both stay healthy and continue to progress. Gallardo is somehow getting a pass that Jimenez never received, and Miley is the very embodiment of a back-end starter. If the Orioles don't develop a starter or pull another Miguel Gonzalez out of their hat, there really isn't much relief in sight. It's not like the O's are going to start paying top dollar for starting pitching, which they maybe shouldn't do anyway because of the risks involved.

The Orioles have constructed a flimsy bridge from the rotation to their dominant group of relievers. It's no sure thing this collection of starters can even get the ball to any of their relievers with a lead intact, but these long relievers will play an important part in how the O's fare the rest of the year. It's hard to expect a lot from them, because if they didn't have flaws in their game, they'd be in a starting rotation somewhere instead of a bullpen. But that's more or less what the O's have excelled in these last few successful seasons: getting helpful performances out of unlikely places. They'll need more of that.

Orioles Again To Rely On Bounce-Backs, Hopes, And Wishes

Before the offseason even started, you could see it coming. Chris Davis was the team's top priority, and the Orioles (with Peter Angelos leading the charge) did everything to ensure his return. They should be commended for that, regardless of whether you think they spent too much money to bring him back. It was likely Davis or no other top free agent, and that does matter.

Still, the Orioles were not going to be able to take care of everything on their shopping list. And to be fair, that is usually the case. The Orioles don't spend enough as a mid-market team to go out and replenish their roster when players depart, and they combine that with having a disappointing farm system that is one of the worst in the majors. That makes it difficult to fill a well-rounded roster with cheap, cost-controlled players. (The Orioles have also had good teams recently, and while that's a positive, they've both dealt away some of their better prospects and dealt with injuries and haven't been able to restock their system.)

The O's have been active this offseason. They re-signed Davis and fought off the Nationals to keep Darren O'Day. They rightly extended the qualifying offer to Matt Wieters, who somewhat surprisingly accepted. They traded for Mark Trumbo and signed Hyun Soo Kim. And they've made a boatload of fringe roster moves in an effort to strike gold with one or two players. But that doesn't seem like enough. After those moves, the O's still may be the worst team in the American League East. And even if they aren't, they don't seem to be more than marginally better than any other team. Realistically, no flurry of moves would have done all that much to alter things. It's not like the Orioles were going to sign David Price, Zack Greinke, or Jason Heyward. They need to get better at developing players, in a hurry.

That brings us back to the apparent flaws of the current roster. The team's corner outfield options - Kim, Nolan Reimold, Dariel Alvarez, Joey Rickard, Henry Urrutia - leave a lot to be desired. Kim is a nice, low-risk signing, but he's unproven in the majors and can't be considered a sure thing. Trumbo needs to be included in that mix, but he's clearly a better option at designated hitter or to spell Davis at first base. Davis could also shift to right field some, but that's probably not what the Orioles have in mind after signing him for so much money. An actual corner outfielder, preferably one who is left-handed, would be a nice addition.

And then there's the starting rotation. Chris Tillman, Kevin Gausman, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Miguel Gonzalez are all locks to start the season in the rotation. That's hardly an inspiring group. Tillman was awful last season; Gausman has showed promise but the Orioles have refused to commit to keeping him in the major league rotation until now; Jimenez was improved last season but is hardly dependable; and Gonzalez finally buckled under the pressure of outpitching his FIP (and, you know, also dealt with elbow and shoulder injuries).

That's without mentioning the upcoming, riveting battle for fifth starter duties between Vance Worley, Mike Wright, and Tyler Wilson. Names such as Mat Latos, Kyle Lohse, Tim Lincecum, Aaron Harang, Alfredo Simon, and even Jeremy Guthrie and other AAAA starters are still out there. Maybe it's best to pursue that route and hope for the best. Or maybe the Orioles will make a trade.

There are still some talented players available on the free agent market, but some are tied to draft pick compensation (including Yovani Gallardo and Dexter Fowler). The Orioles seem set on holding on to their first-round draft pick. That probably has more to do with the money not being there for such signings; after all, the Orioles forfeited two draft picks to sign Ubaldo Jimenez and Nelson Cruz just a couple years ago. And it's not like the Orioles hoard their draft picks anyway.

Right now, it seems pretty foolish that the O's weren't willing to be more flexible to sign Scott Kazmir. Not only was he not tied to draft pick compensation, but he would have filled the left-handed starter void left by Wei-Yin Chen. It's unclear whether the O's were scared off more by Kazmir's injury history or his pursuit of a contract with an opt-out, but he would have been a nice signing -- and could have been considered the team's best starting pitcher.

Teams want more good players. The Orioles aren't any different. Without much to fall back on in the minors, the O's don't have much room for error. They again need a Nate McLouth or Steve Pearce type player to surface, or at least get Miguel Gonzalez to pitch like he did from 2012-2014 or get J.J. Hardy or Tillman to somewhat return to form. (Buck Showalter has acknowledged as much, particularly about his starting pitchers, in some of his comments.) Those types of performances shouldn't be taken for granted, especially when the O's need them as much as they do. Maybe it doesn't lead to exciting offseasons, but the O's again seem like a .500 team that with the right push could again be in the playoff hunt. That's the best-case scenario for this team. The worst case? Maybe you should take a look at that rotation again.

The Cavalry - Six Starting Pitchers for the Orioles' Future

In an earlier piece, I looked at the six current members of the Orioles starting rotation and shared my opinion that, while five of them are good pitchers capable of contributing to a championship team, none are likely to be an ace that pulls a team to a pennant or are likely to win a postseason game on his own. In this article, I will look at six starting pitcher prospects in the Orioles system and share my opinion on how they might fit. Two are highly-touted former first-round draft picks whom many project as potential aces - Dylan Bundy and Hunter Harvey. Two are pitchers who have already reached AAA and therefore could pitch in the majors as soon as next season - Mike Wright and Tyler Wilson. And two are pitchers who have progressed through the minors and pitched at AA Bowie last season; they could possibly be ready in the second half of 2015 but 2016 is a more realistic possibility - Tim Berry and Zach Davies.

I have not personally seen Bundy, Harvey, or Berry pitch. I've seen Mike Wright once in 2013 at Bowie, once in 2013 at Norfolk, and nine times in 2014 at Norfolk. I've seen Tyler Wilson once in 2013 at Bowie (I saw one 2013 Bowie doubleheader; Wright pitched the first game and Wilson the second) and five times in 2014 at Norfolk. I've seen Zach Davies pitch once, in 2013 at Frederick.

The Future Aces - Dylan Bundy and Hunter Harvey

Of all the pitchers in the Orioles' farm system, two have been mentioned as potential future aces. Dylan Bundy has, according to Baseball America, been the Orioles #1 prospect for the past three seasons and remains their #1 prospect today. Bundy has also been among BA's top fifteen prospects in all of baseball for the past three seasons, peaking at #2 after 2012. Hunter Harvey was the Orioles #4 prospect after the 2013 season (behind Bundy, Kevin Gausman, and since-dealt Eduardo Rodriguez) and has moved up to #2 today. Although Baseball America hasn't released their top 100 prospects for 2015, both Bundy and Harvey are likely to be on the list. Bundy and Harvey do have the potential to be aces, but their chances to become aces have been reduced by injuries.

It is important to appreciate that 99% of all prospects who begin playing professional baseball as teenagers look worse after a couple of minor league seasons than they do when we first hear of them. Analysts and scouts haven't seen the weaknesses that can be exposed by a higher level of competition. Projected physical development either doesn't occur or occurs in a sub-optimal way. Players either get complacent with big money or discouraged by failure. It's a rare player - a Mike Trout or a Miguel Cabrera - who is every bit as good as we think they will be when they are first signed. So it's not a major disappointment that Dylan Bundy and Hunter Harvey appear less likely to be stars than they did two years ago.

Dylan Bundy was drafted #4 overall in the 2011 draft, out of high school. As most of us know, Bundy was considered to not only have premium stuff but also advanced pitching skills. He made his debut in 2012 and dominated both levels of Class A before "merely" pitching well in three Double-A starts. He even made a couple of appearances with the Orioles, and fans were looking forward to him being a key member of the 2013 staff, perhaps after a half season in the minor leagues.

Unfortunately, as we know, Bundy experienced elbow discomfort in spring training 2013; he elected to try rest and rehab before finally undergoing Tommy John surgery in June. He missed all of 2013 and most of 2014 recovering. When he pitched in 2014, he was dominant in 3 Summer Class A starts and so-so in 6 Advanced Class A starts.

While most prospect watchers still consider Dylan Bundy a top prospect, based on his amateur pedigree and 2012 season, the fact is that we have absolutely no idea what he will become. Some pitchers recover completely from Tommy John surgery; other recover partially; and still others don't recover at all. And there is really no way to predict who will recover and who won't. The biggest question I have is whether or not the way Bundy pitched before his surgery - what's generally called mechanics - will work with the post-surgery Bundy. He's dealing with two years - ten percent of his life - of changes and has to suddenly adapt to them. We won't know if he can become the ace the Orioles staff lacks until we see how he performs in 2015.

Hunter Harvey is further away; he was the Orioles #1 draft pick in 2013. He pitched very well in short-season ball after signing and began 2014 pitching brilliantly in Class A Delmarva. He leveled off but still was having a very good season until he suffered an injury in a late-July start. It was diagnosed as a strained flexor mass in his elbow. The Orioles have been monitoring his injury and so far rest and rehabilitation seem to be working; surgery hasn't yet been necessary. I have no reason to believe that surgery will be necessary except that more often than not surgery is required to heal elbow injuries.

Hunter Harvey is not as good a prospect as Dylan Bundy was at the same age and level. At age 19, in his first full season, Dylan Bundy pitched better than Hunter Harvey and did so at a higher level, even reaching the major leagues. Bundy was a once-in-a-decade talent; he's the only teenager to have pitched in the major leagues since 2006. Hunter Harvey pitched well, but every season there's a 19-year-old pitcher who does what he does - pitch well in Class A. Harvey's 2014 season was probably not the best 2014 by a teenaged pitcher in the South Atlantic League; 19-year-old Nationals farmhand Lucas Giolito was better.

In 2010 Arodys Vizcaino, aged 19, had a season comparable to Hunter Harvey's 2014. Vizcaino has battled injuries and now is trying to make it as a relief pitcher; he still has the chance to be a closer. In 2009, several teenaged pitchers had years not too different from Harvey - Jordan Lyles, Wilmer Font, Stolmy Pimentel. It's too early too completely write any of them off, but none project to be aces. Before that, things get more complicated because teams were less protective of teenaged pitchers and often allowed them to pitch more innings than Hunter Harvey. The point is not that Hunter Harvey won't be good; it's that he's a long way from the major leagues and we shouldn't expect him to be an ace, based on what he's done so far.

The Immediate Help - Mike Wright and Tyler Wilson

I've written before (here, and here) about Mike Wright. In brief, I thought Wright was very unlikely to have much of a big-league career because he lacked a put-away pitch. Wright's final seven 2014 starts were outstanding; he pitched 47 1/3 innings with a 0.95 ERA. But even then, he didn't pitch as well as his ERA - in those 47 1/3 innings he allowed 35 hits and had an 8-37 walk-to-strikeout ratio. Good numbers to be sure, but not as impressive as a 0.95 ERA. It should also be noted that among those two starts were back-to-back one-hitters against the Durham Bulls. So, basically, my opinion of Mike Wright hasn't changed much - his upside appears to be that of an innings eater at the back of the rotation, and probably one who won't last more than a couple of seasons.

Two points about Mike Wright are worth noting. He's been very durable, pitching more than 140 innings in each of the last two seasons. And he may have a problem with concentration - I've seen him pitch two games in which he was given a large early lead (7-0 after 1, 6-0 after two) and in each game he gave it back and his team lost. 

I also wrote about Tyler Wilson and felt that his upside was similar to Mike Wright's - back of the rotation starter. Wilson doesn't have great stuff, but he was effective because he commands it so well. While most pitchers who have great command of ordinary stuff don't develop into consistent major league pitchers, there are exceptions such as Doug Fister. Wilson seems to be an intelligent young man who knows his limits, and I can see him becoming a contributor to a championship team.

Both Wright and Wilson give the Orioles flexibility to trade one of their current starting pitchers, say Miguel Gonzalez or Bud Norris. While I think both Wright and Wilson need another couple of months at Norfolk to finish their development, it's easy to see either of them starting the year in the Baltimore rotation if they impress in spring training.

The Next Tier - Tim Berry and Zach Davies

While neither Tim Berry nor Zach Davies have the draft pedigree or the hype of Dylan Bundy and Hunter Harvey, both have progressed consistently through the Orioles system and are close to being ready for the major-league rotation. Berry, the only left-handed pitcher among the six discussed in this article, was signed to a six-figure bonus as a 50th-round draft pick on 2009. He underwent Tommy John surgery after signing and didn't really pitch until 2011. He struggled in 2011; he then regained his control in 2012 and for the last three seasons has been consistently around 2.7 walks and 7.3 strikeouts per nine innings. He's maintained his results as he's moved up the organizational ladder, pitching at Advanced Class A Frederick in 2013 and AA Bowie in 2014. He's been solid rather than spectacular.

So far, Tim Berry has pitched in the minor leagues with similar BB/9, K/9. and H/9 ratios as Zach Britton had in the minor leagues and Wei-Yin Chen has in the major leagues. Berry turns 24 in March and will likely pitch in AAA Norfolk. Berry would benefit from a full 2015 in the Norfolk rotation; with Mike Wright and Tyler Wilson the Orioles should be able to do so. I can see Berry replacing Chen in the Orioles 2016 rotation if Chen goes elsewhere as a free agent.

Zach Davies, like Tim Berry, was a late-round draft pick signed to a six-figure bonues. When I saw him  pitch for Frederick in 2013, I was unimpressed. He was a slightly-built righthander who relied on control to get batters out. Pitchers with that profile typically don't succeed at higher levels. But in 2014 Davies improved at AA. His strikeout rate increased from 8 to 9 strikeouts per nine innings. More interestingly, his walk rate increased slightly, which in his case is a good sign - he was getting his increased strikeouts with improved stuff, rather than tricking less experienced hitters. Despite that, most scouts don't project Davies to improve his fastball, and so he doesn't project to be an ace but rather as a potential middle-to-back-of-the rotation starting pitcher.

In summary, the Orioles look to be well equipped to continue the success they've enjoyed in the last three seasons with their starting pitchers. Not all six of these pitchers will develop as we hope, but the Orioles have four advanced pitchers with success at higher levels and two prospects with top-of-the-rotation potential but some question marks. There's no reason to expect the Orioles to struggle because the starting pitching falls apart.

Two Looks at Tyler Wilson

Tyler Wilson was promoted to Norfolk in July. Photo courtesy of Christopher McCain / Norfolk Tides.

The Norfolk Tides were one of the worst teams in the AAA International League for the first three months of the 2014 season. And not only did they have a bad record, they were virtually devoid of interesting players. Caleb Joseph was worth looking at as a late-blooming right-handed bat-on-the-bench until he was promoted to the Orioles when Matt Wieters got injured; I was curious to see how Henry Urrutia would perform in his second U.S. season until he was diagnosed with a sports hernia. But other than those two, the only players who weren't retreads or career minor-leaguers were starting pitchers Mike Wright and Suk-Min Yoon, both of whom I quickly lost interest in seeing because they were - I think I can safely say this - generally ineffective.

So I was eager to see right-handed starting pitcher Tyler Wilson when he was promoted from Bowie. While Wilson wasn't a highly-regarded prospect - he didn't make Baseball America's list of the top thirty Orioles prospects - he at least was a prospect. And, I had marked him as someone to watch after I had seen him pitch effectively in a 2013 Bowie start.

I missed Wilson's AAA debut on July 3 but was fortunate enough to work his next two starts, on July 8 vs. Durham and July 13 vs. Gwinnett. In both games he pitched fairly effectively and was credited with a win:

	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	GS
July 8	7	10	4	4	0	3	44
July 13	7	5	1	0	2	6	69

Watching him, he was pretty much the pitcher I was expected - a pitcher with good control and less than great stuff. A more detailed look at his pitch results confirms my impression - he lacked swing-and-miss stuff:

	July 8	July 13
Ball	26	34
Called Strike	16	20
Swinging Strike	5	8
Foul	16	18
In-Play	25	19
Other	0	1 (HB)

Fortunately, Wilson was able to compensate for his lack of a dominant pitch by generally staying ahead of hitters. The table below shows the number of pitches he threw at each possible count:

	July 8	July 13
0-0	28	28
1-0	9	11
0-1	12	13
2-0	1	3
1-1	11	8
0-2	8	13
3-0	1	1
2-1	2	4
1-2	5	9
3-1	1	0
2-2	8	8
3-2	3	2

Wilson has been successful at avoiding the 2-0, 3-0, and 3-1 counts at which hitters can look for pitches on which to tee off. And when you combine this information with the low number of swing-and-miss strikes, it's clear that batters aren't swinging wildly at pitches out of the strike zone. That means that Wilson is consistently in or near the strike zone, generating called strikes and foul balls.

Tyler Wilson seems to be in the third tier of Orioles' pitching prospects. He doesn't have the top-of-the-rotation potential of a Dylan Bundy, Kevin Gausman, or Hunter Harvey. He doesn't have the combination of projection and performance of a Tim Berry or Zach Davies. His current ability is similar to Davies' but, being older, he has a higher floor but lower ceiling. While it's hard to know exactly what the Orioles' future starting rotation will look like, Wilson probably won't get a shot as a starter unless the wheels fall off; and, he doesn't have much trade appeal. In background and performance to this point, he reminds me of Jason Berken, who produced one good season as a middle reliever among years as a rotation anchor for AAA teams.

Final note: I didn't get to see Wilson's start on July 21, in which he was outstanding - he allowed two hits and struck out eight in seven innings. If I had seen that start, I might have a more positive opinion - but I didn't.

Some Unsystematic Observations From the March 29 Norfolk Exhibition

I'm one of the regular milb.com datacasters for the Norfolk Tides. When I'm working, I'm one of the people who input the pitch and play codes that generate the GameDay play-by-play, the final box score, and ultimately the official statistics. I datacasted the Orioles-Tides exhibition game on March 29, so I have a few observations not mentioned in the game summaries I've read.

First, because the game was played in a persistent rain, each inning ended when the pitcher reached twenty pitches. So, the "official" pitching lines aren't quite equivalent to normal pitching lines. Based on the number of outs recorded, rather than innings, the lines are:

Suk-Min Yoon	3 2/3	4	2	2	0	2
Mike Wright	0	3	1	1	1	0
Zach Davies	3	7	4	4	2	5
Tyler Wilson	2	1	0	0	1	0

Yoon's third inning ended with two outs and a runner on second, so he probably could have gotten out of the inning without giving up another run. Davies' second inning ended with one out and runners on first and third; he might have escaped without giving up more runs, but he might not. His fourth inning ended with two outs and runners on first and second; again, he could have gotten out of the inning without giving up another run. Finally, Mike Wright's inning ended with no outs and the bases loaded; he almost certainly would have surrendered more runs had the inning not been ended. So while Yoon's and Wilson's lines can be taken at face value, Davies and Wright pitched worse than their lines indicate.

(It's interesting how one out affects our impression of a pitching line. Yoon's box-score line - 4 4 2 2 0 2 - is only one out better than the line above, yet the line above looks much worse to me. It's not unlike basketball scores - 81-69 looks a lot more one-sided than 85-73 or 77-65, because of the two-digit jump in the tens column.)

The pitch counts for the pitchers are:

	Balls	Fouls	Called Strikes	Swinging Strikes	In-Play
Suk-Min Yoon	18	13	10	5	12
Mike Wright	8	6	3	0	3
Zach Davies	31	9	9	10	11
Tyler Wilson	11	4	3	3	7

I wouldn't read too much into these counts. but I mention them because I haven't seen them reported anywhere else.

Next, in Nelson Cruz' second plate appearance, he drew a walk to lead off an inning. Matt Wieters flew out to Quintin Berry at the left-field wall. Cruz tagged from first and advanced to second after Berry stumbled after hitting the wall. I had never thought of Nelson Cruz as a smart or alert player, but this was an alert advancement. Cruz scored on Ryan Flaherty's single.

Also, in the future I'm going to pay attention to the throwing of recent acquisition David Adams. Adams played third base for Norfolk yesterday. In addition to the rain, the wind was generally blowing from right to left (the official box score says "varies", but I blew it - I should have said the wind was blowing from right to left) with frequent gusts stronger than the game-time official 13 MPH measurement. I noticed two of Adams' throws into the wind, and the wind seemed to hold them up. At the same time, his throws were perfect - right on-line, chest-high to the first baseman, in time to get the out. So, I don't know whether Adams has a weakish arm that couldn't cut through the wind, or Adams has a strong-enough, accurate arm and yesterday's wind was so strong that it would hold up even Nolan Ryan's throws.

Finally, and I hesitate to bring this up because it's one exhibition game, in bad conditions, but J.J. Hardy didn't play well defensively. He made no plays at shortstop, which isn't necessarily his fault. However, there were two medium-speed ground-balls hit just to the left of second base that found their way into center field for singles. Again, I may be completely wrong, but it seemed to me that the shortstop could have gotten to those balls; Hardy didn't. It's likely that Hardy simply didn't want to risk injury, especially with Manny Machado out, and that on a dry field in a meaningful game Hardy would have made the effort to make those plays. But yesterday he didn't, and if I watched the Orioles - I can't watch them as often as I'd like because I'm attending Norfolk games - I might pay attention to Hardy to see if he's making all the plays.