Mike Yastrzemski and the Orioles' Future

Joe Reisel's Archives

Mike Yastrzemski doing what he does best. Photo courtesy of Elaina Ellis / Norfolk Tides

So, Yastrzemski. Is this as good as it gets for him?

After I have finished datacasting a Tides game, I usually walk to the parking lot with Mike, the official scorer, and Paul, the gentleman who runs the pitch timing clock. Mike and Paul are former sportswriters, but they've nevertheless accepted me (I do not claim that my contributions to Camden Depot make me a "sportswriter") and we often talk about the game we've just seen, the Tides, or baseball in general as we make our way to our cars - and, occasionally, as we loiter in the parking lot.

Paul is a long-time Red Sox fan, with fond memories of Carl Yastrzemski. He's also interested in the career of Mike Yastrzemski - Carl's grandson - who has spent much of 2016 and 2017 with the Tides. Mike Yaz started 2018 at AA Bowie, but was eventually promoted to Norfolk when Alex Presley and Michael Saunders opted out of their Orioles contracts. He's made several spectacular defensive plays and is now second in the International League in triples, despite having played only 19 AAA games.

Twenty years ago, when teams carried one or two fewer pitchers, there would definitely be a major-league role, at least for a few years, for a Mike Yastrzemski. In those days, most teams kept a fifth outfielder-type player, a player who may not have been a good batter but was a good defensive player and baserunner. That's Mike Yastrzemski

Of course, that argument doesn't really apply to the 2018 Orioles, who are carrying Craig Gentry, who has the same basic skills as Yastrzemski but (1) hits right-handed, (2) is older, and (3) a few years ago had a couple of years in which he hit fairly well as a part-time player. I'm sure people would disagree, but I don't see any reason to think that Yastrzemski wouldn't outperform Gentry in 2018. That assumes that neither Yastrzemski nor Gentry would be anything more than a backup outfielder.

I replied to Paul that Yastrzemski is not likely to make the Orioles based on his own performance. Of course, he could always be promoted as an injury replacement if an outfielder went down. Or - and this is where things get controversial - if the Orioles do trade away outfielders, I think Yastzemski might get called up to help the Orioles get through the season.

I'm sure that if the Orioles do trade away many of their major-league players, fans want them to promote the future - outfielders like Austin Hays and Cedric Mullins. But, in my opinion, they'd be better off keeping Mullins, Hays, and even DJ Stewart in the minor leagues while playing out the major-league season with fringe minor-league veterans like Mike Yastrzemski. This isn't a wholly-cynical "let's win as few games as we can so we can get a better draft pick" play, although it certainly is relevant. But there's also a very real risk of negatively impacting a player's future career if he's promoted and playing in the major leagues before he's fully developed and ready.

This may be frustrating to Orioles fans, who naturally want the down time to be as short and as painless as possible. And it will no doubt be non-entertaining to watch the Orioles lose games playing the likes of Mike Yastrzemski, Drew Dosch, and Yefry Ramirez instead of players with exciting upside like Austin Hays, Ryan Mountcastle, and Keegan Akin. But the minor-league system exists so that players will be fully developed and ready. There's no point in promoting players to play on a bad team before they are ready. And there's a good reason not to promote them - they may feel pressure to be the "future of the franchise" and fail to perform as well as they should. It could be argued that Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz, Zach Britton, and even Chris Tillman were promoted to the major-league team before they were fully developed; when they ran into problems, they weren't able to handle it until they had failed three times, found another role, or were traded away. If at all.

So, Mike Yastrzemski may indeed get a career in the major leagues. Even if he doesn't, he's about at the point where, if he wants to, he can make a little money as a minor-league free agent or in a foreign league. With his name, of course, he could probably have a job for life as a coach in the Red Sox' system. I have no idea what he wants to do with the rest of his life; but he can have a satisfying - if not set-for-life lucrative - career in professional baseball.

Four More Orioles' Prospects with the 2016 Tides

Joe Reisel's Archives

In a previous article, I summarized my impressions of the five best prospects (according to Baseball America's pre-season rankings) to play at AAA Norfolk in 2016. Five more of BA's top thirty Orioles' prospects played at Norfolk in 2016, and in this article I will cover them.

Tyler Wilson, pitcher (#19)

Could he become the next Kyle Hendricks or Josh Tomlin?

One of the more notable facets of the 2016 World Series is that both teams - the Chicago Cubs and the Cleveland Indians - got surprising performances out of starting pitchers with subpar "stuff" but very good-to-great command and control. One of the Orioles' better pitching prospects over the past few years has been Tyler Wilson, a pitcher with fringy stuff and very good command and control. Given the success of Kyle Hendricks (with the Cubs) and Josh Tomlin (with the Indians), it's natural to wonder if Wilson will develop into a pitcher with that level of success.

It's very unlikely that Wilson will ever have the level of success Hendricks had this season. (Of course, it's doubtful that Hendricks will ever again have the level of success he had this season.) I was surprised to discover that Tyler Wilson is actually 2 1/2 months older than Kyle Hendricks, which may not mean a whole lot but does tend to demolish the idea that Wilson is a hot young prospect. More to the point, in his minor-league time Wilson has walked 2.15 batters per nine innings, but Hendricks walked 1.61. In the major leagues in 2016, Wilson struck out 5.27 batters per nine innings (94 innings total), exactly the same as Hendricks did in 80 big-league innings in 2014 (80 innings total) - but Hendricks walked 1.68 per nine innings as opposed to Wilson's 2.30. Hendricks has been an exceptional pitcher and it's very unlikely Wilson will become that good.

Josh Tomlin's a similar story. Tomlin came to the majors at age 25 - just as Wilson did - and in his age 26 season struck out even fewer batters per nine innings than Wilson - 4.98 vs. 5.27. But Tomlin, like Hendricks, walked fewer batters than Tomlin did - 1.14 vs 2.30. The next season, Tomlin's walk rate nearly doubled (to a still-outstanding 2.18) while his strikeout rate stayed the same - and Tomlin was ineffective. He spent the next couple of seasons re-establishing himself, and now is an effective fifth starter-type with a walk rate around 1.00 and a strikeout rate around 7.00.

So, Wilson has to improve both his control and his strikeout rate to be an effective pitcher. It's not that there aren't effective pitchers with his profile - it's a question of whether Wilson is good enough.

One other issue is that both Hendricks and Tomlin got their starts with bad teams and patient managers, so they were able to stay in the rotation for a full year and learn to pitch in the major leagues. The Orioles are a contender and Buck Showalter hasn't shown much patience with young starters, so if Wilson has four bad starts in a row he'll likely be pulled from the rotation. A pitcher like Wilson, who has to rely on command and control, needs consistent work. He won't get that with these Orioles. 

Should he be in the Orioles' 2017 rotation?

It may sound heretical to say so, but the Orioles should probably plan on using Ubaldo Jimenez, Yovanni Gallardo, and/or Wade Miley as their fourth and fifth starters behind Kevin Gausman, Chris Tillman, and Dylan Bundy. The Orioles have invested so much money in those contracts that they should give them a chance, see if they have anything left. I believe Wilson has one option year left, so it would make sense to have him start the year in Norfolk as a starting pitcher, waiting to be promoted if the three veterans flame out.

Oliver Drake, relief pitcher (#21)

Could he handle a role in the Orioles' bullpen?

For some reason, it's been believed that Drake hasn't been successful in the major leagues - but he has been. He's pitched 33 2/3 innings, with a 3.48 ERA, 10.2 strikeout / 9 innings pitched, and even a 1.277 WHIP. His control hasn't been great, and that's probably why he's not being perceived as a success.

As I wrote earlier this year, I think one reason Drake is viewed skeptically is because he relies on a trick pitch, his splitter/forkball. I think Buck Showalter might believe that major-league hitters will lay off that pitch and force Drake to throw more and more hittable strikes. But my earlier investigation suggested that minor-league hitters weren't swinging at non-strikes, so in my opinion there's no justification for thinking he can't get major-league hitters out.

Drake isn't a long reliever, so it's hard to see exactly where he would fit in a bullpen already featuring Brad Brach, Mychal Givens, and an expensive Darren O'Day. Buck has amply demonstrated that he doesn't manage his bullpen creatively - he assigns typical roles to each pitcher and keeps the pitcher rigidly in his role - so Drake may have to hope to go to another organization. As a 30-year-old relief pitcher who has yet to establish himself in the major leagues, he doesn't have a lot of trade value.

Parker Bridwell, pitcher (#22)

I only saw Bridwell pitch once, the last two innings of a blowout Tides' win. In his two innings, he struck out five while walking one, allowing him to score on a single (after defensive indifference and a wild pitch.)

Ariel Miranda, starting pitcher (#23)

Will trading him for Wade Miley come back to haunt the Orioles?

I wrote shortly after the trade that Ariel Miranda, a fly-ball pitcher, was unlikely to help the Orioles much and it was reasonable to trade him for Wade Miley. Over the rest of the season, Miranda pitched effectively for Seattle while Miley pitched ineffectively for the Orioles.

Obviously, if Miranda continues to pitch as well as he did with the Mariners, and Wade Miley continues to pitch poorly, then the trade will come back to haunt the Orioles. There are several questions about Miranda - (1) can he continue to pitch at that level; (2) can he pitch at that level for a full season; (3) how would he have pitched at Camden Yards (which is a much worse park for pitchers.) The third question is unanswerable, but we could look at 27-year-old pitchers who had a 115 ERA+ in 56 innings and see if they could sustain that level.

Actually, though, we can't, because all the recent pitchers who pitched that well at that age were relievers. So Miranda 2016 season was unique and we'll just have to wait and see how he does.

Mike Yastrzemski, outfielder (#25)

Is he a real prospect?

"Yaz" is a "hustle" player, a guy who isn't very good but impresses everyone - especially impressionable fans - with his all-out play. These guys are usually good defensive players with good-but-not-great speed, who run out every ground ball and go first-to-third whenever they can. Fans who complain about the money paid to baseball players make rave about these guys, saying that they play the game "the way it should be played." That's Mike Yastrzemski.

The problem with Yaz is that he doesn't do much besides hustle. He gets good reads on fly balls and throws to the right base most of the time, and he has a little speed. But he doesn't have power; he doesn't draw walks; and he doesn't hit for a high average, so he's a black hole in the lineup.

I can't see any circumstances - even desperation - in which he'd be a regular outfielder. I can see him making a team as a fourth outfielder type, and even keeping that job if he hits .250. But there's going to be a season in which he hits .205 or .165, and that will be the end of his career.

Outfield Reinforcements Won't Be Coming From the Minors

The play of Baltimore’s corner outfielders has been a hot topic lately. Last week, our own Matt Kremnitzer wrote about their struggles in an article for MASN, while Matt Perez followed that up with a piece that looked at potentially swapping Bud Norris and Tommy Hunter for the Red Sox's Shane Victorino. Yes, the non-Adam Jones outfielders currently on the Orioles roster are not performing, both offensively and defensively. Here’s how they stack up against the rest of the league in terms of wRC+ and DRS.

OK, so they actually haven’t been playing bad defense, it just seems like it after seeing Delmon Young, Alejandro De Aza, and Travis Snider out there on a regular basis. Matt Perez’s suggestion to trade for Victorino is certainly an interesting one. And while we’re almost 2 months into the 2015 season, it’s probably a little too early to expect any sort of trade that would bring back a major upgrade to the ballclub in one of the outfield corners. Furthermore, despite rumblings that Chris Parmelee may be called up from AAA to provide some offense in the outfield, an upgrade is unlikely to be found in the Orioles minor league system. Let’s take a look at what’s available.

Outfielders on the 40-Man Roster

All of them are actually already on the major league roster. I could end this section right there, but that would be lazy. Just because a player isn’t listed as an outfielder on the 40-man roster doesn’t mean that he can’t play the outfield. However, even taking that broader view, that still doesn’t leave the team with many options. Other than the obvious candidates, there is Jimmy Paredes and Henry Urrutia. We know that Paredes can hit (at least he has this year), but he’s only logged just over 400 innings in the outfield during his major league career, producing -4 DRS (-7.7 UZR/150). As for Urrutia, I don’t think Baltimore views him as an outfield option anymore (on the 40-man roster, he’s listed as a DH).

Outfielders Not on the 40-Man Roster

The table below shows how the options at Norfolk are performing so far in 2015.

As you can see, no one is exactly lighting the world on fire down there, except for maybe Parmelee, and he’s not even listed as an outfielder on the Orioles website. As Matt Kremnitzer noted, it’s not as if Parmelee would even be an upgrade, as he owns a career 97 wRC+ in the major leagues (901 PAs) and has been -7 DRS in just over 1,050 innings in the outfield.

Let’s take a look at how the outfielders in Bowie are hitting.

The stat lines of these players look slightly better, but they’re also another level further from the major leagues. Quincy Latimore is a former Pirates prospect who is now 26 years old and has never played above AA. Glynn Davis is having a promising season, but he is only in his first full year of AA, and is not considered a prospect (MLB.com left him off their top 30 list prior to the season). The best of this bunch is Mike Yastrzemski, who was ranked the 10th best prospect in the Orioles system before the season by both Baseball Prospectus and MLB.com (Baseball America had him 9th and he didn’t make the cut on Keith Law’s list). Still, both MLB.com and BP see Yastrzemski as a slightly below average player at his peak, so it’s unlikely he’d be a difference maker, especially in 2015.

Purchasing the contract of one of the players not on the 40-man roster shouldn’t be an obstacle. But if that’s the route the team decides to take, they’ll need to clear a spot to make room for Matt Wieters when he comes off the 60-day disabled list (he’s currently rehabbing in Bowie). At that point, they’ll risk losing whoever they remove from the 40-man roster to any of the other 29 teams on waivers.

With no help down in the minors and the trade market still in its earliest stages of development, the Orioles best option in the corner outfield positions may be to just stand pat. The return of Jonathan Schoop and/or Ryan Flaherty should allow Steve Pearce to return to an outfield position, where hopefully his batted ball luck will regress in the positive direction, providing some much needed production. Sometimes the best course of action one can take is to wait.