Some Details About Trey Mancini's 2016 AAA Season

Joe Reisel's Archives

Photo courtesy of Les Treagus / Norfolk Tides.

As an milb.com datacaster and as a scorer for Baseball Info Solutions, I watch a lot of Norfolk Tides games. And I tend to focus on the "little picture" - I get absorbed in what's happening right there and right then, in front of me. That's my job; I record each pitch and play results, be it the first inning, the sixth inning of an 11-2 blowout, or the bottom of the ninth of a tie game. Needless to say, at times the pitches, plays, and batters all blur together. The plays I remember are plays that are dramatic or crucial, that can break through the rhythm of balls, strikes, fouls, and balls put into play. An unfortunate (for me) consequence is that my impressions of players are overinfluenced by those dramatic moments.

And so my impressions of Trey Mancini are less positive than perhaps they should be, based on his statistical line. I remember several close games, in which the Tides were tied or trailing by one run, when Mancini - who usually batted third - came to the plate with runners in scoring position. And, based on his earlier performance in similar situations, I expected him to swing-and-miss at the first pitch and subsequently make an out, failing to drive in a run or even advance the runners.

But was this perception accurate? During the season, did Mancini swing at the first pitch? When he did swing, how often did he miss? How many pitches did he see during his at-bats? I could review my scoresheets (yes, I have to keep scoresheets on paper during my games and yes, I keep them - I have four binders with eleven years' worth of Norfolk Tides scoresheets) and spot the specific instances I remember. But that would be so few plate appearances as to have little value. Instead, I looked at all of Mancini's plate appearances in games I scored. Over the season, I have records of 44 of Mancini's games, encompassing 188 plate appearances.

Did Trey Mancini tend to swing at the first pitch?

Not in the games I scored, no.. He took the first pitch 123 times and swung at the first pitch 65 times. He put the ball in play 15 times, and was hit by the first pitch once.

How did he do when he saw only one pitch in an at-bat?

Not terribly well in the games I saw. He had only four hits in the fifteen at-bats - but three of those hits were home runs. Adding his HBP, that gave him a slash line of .267/.313/.867 when he saw only one pitch in a plate appearance. The slugging percentage is nice, but the on-base percentage and (especially) the batting average are lower than usual for a one-pitch plate appearance.

How many pitches did he see in a typical plate appearance?

Just under four in the games I saw - 3.99 to be precise to the hundredths place. A complete breakdown follows:

1 pitch: 16 PA
2 pitches: 26 PA
3 pitches: 43 PA
4 pitches: 28 PA
5 pitches: 33 PA
6 pitches: 25 PA
7 pitches: 12 PA
8 pitches: 4 PA
10 pitches: 1 PA

What did he do with all these pitches?

Called Balls: 268
Called Strikes: 114
Swinging Strikes: 114
Foul Balls: 123
Put in Play: 117

It's noteworthy that 37.78% of his plate appearances ended without the ball being put in play. At first glance, that seemed high. And it is a little bit high for Mancini; overall with the Tides he put the ball in play in 32.65% of his plate appearances. For comparison, 28.16% of the Norfolk Tides plate appearances ended without the ball being put in play; for the International League as a whole, the figure is 28.92%.

The main takeaway from this review is that my impression of Mancini as an overaggressive hitter was wrong. He didn't swing at the first pitch an inordinate amount of time; he did see a reasonable number of pitches per plate appearance. There isn't any reason for me to be concerned that Mancini is too aggressive and that aggressiveness will be a flaw exposed at the major league level.

Four More Orioles' Prospects with the 2016 Tides

Joe Reisel's Archives

In a previous article, I summarized my impressions of the five best prospects (according to Baseball America's pre-season rankings) to play at AAA Norfolk in 2016. Five more of BA's top thirty Orioles' prospects played at Norfolk in 2016, and in this article I will cover them.

Tyler Wilson, pitcher (#19)

Could he become the next Kyle Hendricks or Josh Tomlin?

One of the more notable facets of the 2016 World Series is that both teams - the Chicago Cubs and the Cleveland Indians - got surprising performances out of starting pitchers with subpar "stuff" but very good-to-great command and control. One of the Orioles' better pitching prospects over the past few years has been Tyler Wilson, a pitcher with fringy stuff and very good command and control. Given the success of Kyle Hendricks (with the Cubs) and Josh Tomlin (with the Indians), it's natural to wonder if Wilson will develop into a pitcher with that level of success.

It's very unlikely that Wilson will ever have the level of success Hendricks had this season. (Of course, it's doubtful that Hendricks will ever again have the level of success he had this season.) I was surprised to discover that Tyler Wilson is actually 2 1/2 months older than Kyle Hendricks, which may not mean a whole lot but does tend to demolish the idea that Wilson is a hot young prospect. More to the point, in his minor-league time Wilson has walked 2.15 batters per nine innings, but Hendricks walked 1.61. In the major leagues in 2016, Wilson struck out 5.27 batters per nine innings (94 innings total), exactly the same as Hendricks did in 80 big-league innings in 2014 (80 innings total) - but Hendricks walked 1.68 per nine innings as opposed to Wilson's 2.30. Hendricks has been an exceptional pitcher and it's very unlikely Wilson will become that good.

Josh Tomlin's a similar story. Tomlin came to the majors at age 25 - just as Wilson did - and in his age 26 season struck out even fewer batters per nine innings than Wilson - 4.98 vs. 5.27. But Tomlin, like Hendricks, walked fewer batters than Tomlin did - 1.14 vs 2.30. The next season, Tomlin's walk rate nearly doubled (to a still-outstanding 2.18) while his strikeout rate stayed the same - and Tomlin was ineffective. He spent the next couple of seasons re-establishing himself, and now is an effective fifth starter-type with a walk rate around 1.00 and a strikeout rate around 7.00.

So, Wilson has to improve both his control and his strikeout rate to be an effective pitcher. It's not that there aren't effective pitchers with his profile - it's a question of whether Wilson is good enough.

One other issue is that both Hendricks and Tomlin got their starts with bad teams and patient managers, so they were able to stay in the rotation for a full year and learn to pitch in the major leagues. The Orioles are a contender and Buck Showalter hasn't shown much patience with young starters, so if Wilson has four bad starts in a row he'll likely be pulled from the rotation. A pitcher like Wilson, who has to rely on command and control, needs consistent work. He won't get that with these Orioles. 

Should he be in the Orioles' 2017 rotation?

It may sound heretical to say so, but the Orioles should probably plan on using Ubaldo Jimenez, Yovanni Gallardo, and/or Wade Miley as their fourth and fifth starters behind Kevin Gausman, Chris Tillman, and Dylan Bundy. The Orioles have invested so much money in those contracts that they should give them a chance, see if they have anything left. I believe Wilson has one option year left, so it would make sense to have him start the year in Norfolk as a starting pitcher, waiting to be promoted if the three veterans flame out.

Oliver Drake, relief pitcher (#21)

Could he handle a role in the Orioles' bullpen?

For some reason, it's been believed that Drake hasn't been successful in the major leagues - but he has been. He's pitched 33 2/3 innings, with a 3.48 ERA, 10.2 strikeout / 9 innings pitched, and even a 1.277 WHIP. His control hasn't been great, and that's probably why he's not being perceived as a success.

As I wrote earlier this year, I think one reason Drake is viewed skeptically is because he relies on a trick pitch, his splitter/forkball. I think Buck Showalter might believe that major-league hitters will lay off that pitch and force Drake to throw more and more hittable strikes. But my earlier investigation suggested that minor-league hitters weren't swinging at non-strikes, so in my opinion there's no justification for thinking he can't get major-league hitters out.

Drake isn't a long reliever, so it's hard to see exactly where he would fit in a bullpen already featuring Brad Brach, Mychal Givens, and an expensive Darren O'Day. Buck has amply demonstrated that he doesn't manage his bullpen creatively - he assigns typical roles to each pitcher and keeps the pitcher rigidly in his role - so Drake may have to hope to go to another organization. As a 30-year-old relief pitcher who has yet to establish himself in the major leagues, he doesn't have a lot of trade value.

Parker Bridwell, pitcher (#22)

I only saw Bridwell pitch once, the last two innings of a blowout Tides' win. In his two innings, he struck out five while walking one, allowing him to score on a single (after defensive indifference and a wild pitch.)

Ariel Miranda, starting pitcher (#23)

Will trading him for Wade Miley come back to haunt the Orioles?

I wrote shortly after the trade that Ariel Miranda, a fly-ball pitcher, was unlikely to help the Orioles much and it was reasonable to trade him for Wade Miley. Over the rest of the season, Miranda pitched effectively for Seattle while Miley pitched ineffectively for the Orioles.

Obviously, if Miranda continues to pitch as well as he did with the Mariners, and Wade Miley continues to pitch poorly, then the trade will come back to haunt the Orioles. There are several questions about Miranda - (1) can he continue to pitch at that level; (2) can he pitch at that level for a full season; (3) how would he have pitched at Camden Yards (which is a much worse park for pitchers.) The third question is unanswerable, but we could look at 27-year-old pitchers who had a 115 ERA+ in 56 innings and see if they could sustain that level.

Actually, though, we can't, because all the recent pitchers who pitched that well at that age were relievers. So Miranda 2016 season was unique and we'll just have to wait and see how he does.

Mike Yastrzemski, outfielder (#25)

Is he a real prospect?

"Yaz" is a "hustle" player, a guy who isn't very good but impresses everyone - especially impressionable fans - with his all-out play. These guys are usually good defensive players with good-but-not-great speed, who run out every ground ball and go first-to-third whenever they can. Fans who complain about the money paid to baseball players make rave about these guys, saying that they play the game "the way it should be played." That's Mike Yastrzemski.

The problem with Yaz is that he doesn't do much besides hustle. He gets good reads on fly balls and throws to the right base most of the time, and he has a little speed. But he doesn't have power; he doesn't draw walks; and he doesn't hit for a high average, so he's a black hole in the lineup.

I can't see any circumstances - even desperation - in which he'd be a regular outfielder. I can see him making a team as a fourth outfielder type, and even keeping that job if he hits .250. But there's going to be a season in which he hits .205 or .165, and that will be the end of his career.

Four Orioles Prospects with the 2016 Tides

Joe Reisel's Archives

During the 2016 season, ten of Baseball America's preseason top 30 Orioles' prospects played at least one game in Norfolk. I was able to see 52 Norfolk games last season, and so my observations and opinions of these prospects might be of interest. This article covers half the prospects; the other half will be covered in a subsequent article.

Chance Sisco, catcher (#4)

Chance Sisco wasn't promoted to Norfolk until after they had played all their home games, so I didn't see him play.

Trey Mancini, first base (#8)

How good is he? Will he have a major-league career? How does he compare to Christian Walker?

Accurately or not, I see at least superficial similarities between Mancini and Christian Walker. Both are right-handed hitting first basemen, drafted in a middle round out of college. Mancini is almost exactly one year younger than Walker. Walker shot to AA in his first full season, but Mancini did not get there until his second full season. Mancini has slightly out-performed Walker at AAA - a .770 OPS vs a .754 OPS.

It's important to remember that Norfolk's Harbor Park is a pitcher's park. It's especially hard on a player like Mancini, a right-handed hitter who's more of a line-drive hitter with a little power, rather than a true slugger. Mancini was also much better at Bowie than he was at Norfolk. Given that, I think his .770 OPS is a reasonable estimate of what he'll do in Baltimore, moving to a better hitting environment. His OBP will probably drop some but his SP will probably increase by about as much. Looking for players who hit about as well as I think Mancini would, the best comp I found was David Freese.

Freese is a better player than we might remember, given that he was a last-minute free agent signing last season. And if Mancini were a third baseman, he'd be a solid regular. But Mancini has only played first base, and he hasn't yet hit well enough to be show that he'd be a championship-quality  first baseman. He can still improve, although probably not dramatically.

I was struck by a couple of things about Mancini, but I'm not sure if my perception is accurate. I thought he was too aggressive in run-producing situations to the extent that I really wasn't expecting him to drive in the runs in key situations. He also struck out more than I expected. I'll be taking a more detailed look at his performance later in the off-season.

Is he good trade bait?

He's a right-handed hitting first baseman who hasn't yet shown himself to be a great hitter. He won't bring much back.

Mike Wright, pitcher (#10)

Can he be a major-league pitcher?

He's been terrible as a starter in the major leagues, and I suspect his chances of being a starter with the Orioles are gone. On the other hand, he's been effective the past two seasons at Norfolk, although last season his strikeout rate deteriorated while his walk rate improved.

Two things about Wright. First, I wonder if he has concentration problems. He generally hasn't pitched well when he's been given early run support. It could be that he lets up too much when he's given a lead. Second, he generally is more effective when he strikes out fewer batters. I suspect that the harder he throws, the more hittable his pitches become because they move less.

This pattern - general ineffectiveness in the major leagues and general effectiveness in the minor leagues - is that of Jake Arrieta. Arrieta had more periods of sustained major-league success than Wright has had, and I am in no way declaring that if Wright got to another team, he'd be another Jake Arrieta. I do think his chances for success will be higher if he gets in another organization.

Dariel Alvarez, right fielder (#13)

Is he a major-league player?

If you took his best offensive numbers out of his two AAA seasons - a .287 batting average, 38 doubles, 16 home runs - that's good enough to play regularly. Unfortunately, (1) he didn't put those numbers in the same season and (2) he doesn't walk, so his on-base percentage is low. And his defense, which was quite good in 2015, deteriorated in 2016, perhaps because he was discouraged. With all that, he probably won't win a major-league job but might get one if all other options fail.

He's a lot like Adonis Garcia of Atlanta - a Cuban expatriate who spent a few years in AAA before falling into a job as the Braves' 2016 third baseman. He didn't play well, but will probably keep his job because the Braves don't have anybody better ready. That's the best case for Alvarez - he gets a job filling a gaping hole on a bad team.

Could he be a bench player?

It's hard to see it. He doesn't hit well enough to be an offensive asset; he probably can't play center field except on an emergency basis. A bench outfielder, especially in the American League, either has to really hit or play center field passably. He'd probably be a little better than Nolan Reimold, if that's what you're hoping for.

Christian Walker, left fielder/first baseman (#14)

How's the conversion to the outfield going?

He's not yet ready to play the outfield in the major leagues.

I'm willing to give Walker a mulligan for much of 2016. His father died suddenly in mid-season; he missed several days to attend services and he obviously was distracted when he came back. He seemed to be improving until his father's death; after he came back, he regressed.

It's obvious that he's never going to be a good outfielder. He's slow, has trouble tracking the ball, and doesn't have a good arm. He does catch what he can get to - he just can't get to enough.

He's been remarkably consistent offensively in his 2+ years at Norfolk. He's a .260/.325/.430 hitter. I thought last year that Billy Butler was a reasonable comp for Walker, and I still think that. Walker probably wouldn't be quite as good a hitter as Butler, but he'd be a better defensive first baseman.

The 2016 Norfolk Tides In Review - Team

Joe Reisel's Archives

Record: 62-82 (.431); 4th Place IL South; 13th (of 14) Overall
Runs Scored: 535
Runs Allowed: 585

BA Top 30 Prospects:
#3 Chance Sisco (4 G, 18 PA)
#8 Trey Mancini (125 G, 536 PA)
#10 Mike Wright (13 G, 13 GS, 76 1/3 IP)
#13 Dariel Alvarez (130 G, 560 PA)
#14 Christian Walker (131 G, 552 PA)
#19 Tyler Wilson (6 G, 6 GS, 23 2/3 IP)
#21 Oliver Drake (47 G, 1 GS, 56 1/3 IP)
#22 Parker Bridwell (4 G, 0 GS, 10 IP)
#23 Ariel Miranda (19 G, 19 GS, 100 2/3 IP)
#25 Mike Yastrzemski (94 G, ,385 PA)

Offense: Below average but not terrible. The Tides ranked 12th in the league in runs scored, but were only 33 runs below the league average. Harbor Park is a pitcher's park. The ball doesn't carry to the deep power alleys; the wind most often blows across the field; and the field is at sea level. So the park depresses offense; the Tides didn't have a good offense but it was better than it looked.

Defense: Good in the infield, substandard in the outfield. The Tides shortstops (mostly Paul Janish and Ozzie Martinez) were outstanding; the second basemen (Martinez, Sharlon Schoop, Corban Joseph) solid; the third basemen (mostly Michael Almanzar) erratic but got the job done. On the other hand, Christian Walker was a first baseman trying to play left field; L.J. Hoes and Xavier Avery are not center fielders; and Dariel Alvarez was inconsistent. Only Mike Yastrzemski was a good defensive outfielder.

Pitching: The starting rotation was poor, although most of the really bad starting pitchers were dismissed during the year. The bullpen was excellent.

Season Overview: The Norfolk Tides 2016 season could be divided into four parts. The Tides began by losing 8 of their first 10; bounced back to 9-14; then lost 15 of their next 20. They continued to play poorly and reached their first low point on June 12, when they were 11 1/2 games behind.

The Tides had loaded up on AAA veteran free agents, in part because there weren't many advanced prospects in the system and in part because the Orioles like to have role players who can be called up as needed. Many of those didn't play well. Joey Terdoslavich, Todd Redmond, Terry Doyle, Henry Urrutia, Alfredo Marte, and Steve Tolleson were all sent out by mid-May. L.J. Hoes and Xavier Avery played poorly, but remained with the team.

From June 12 to July 22, the Tides more or less stabilized and started to close the gap, although they still played below .500 in that stretch. Joe Gunkel and Mike Wright joined the team and stabilized the rotation; Andy Oliver moved from the bullpen into the rotation and pitched as well as he ever has. On July 22, the Tides reached their second low point at 37-63, 26 games below .500, although they were "only" 7 1/2 games out of first place. They went 16-20 but gained four games on the division lead.

The Tides won on July 23, and the July 24 game against Toledo might have been the turning point of the season. The Tides led 3-2 going into the ninth inning and Jason Stoffel, who been dominant since replacing Oliver Drake as the closer, came into pitch. .Steven Moya hit his third pitch into the right-field bullpen, tying the game. In the bottom of the ninth, the Tides loaded the bases with one out only to have Paul Janish hit into a double play. In the top of the 10th, Toledo loaded the bases with two out but Moya grounded out. In the bottom of the tenth, L.J. Hoes hit a one-out triple and the Mud Hens intentionally walked Trey Mancini. With Christian Walker batting, Toledo tried to pick Hoes off third base. He got back safely, but Mancini had broken for second and got himself in a rundown. While Toledo fixated on Mancini, Hoes broke for home and scored the winning run.

That game started the Tides on the third phase, in which they got back into playoff contention. From July 23 to August 20, the Tides went 19-9 and closed to within 1 game of first place (on August 18, with a 55-71 record; on August 20 the Tides were in a second-place tie, 1 1/2 games out.) In this phase, the Tides pitching and defense were outstanding and the offense was just good enough. In particular, Corban Joseph seemed to always deliver a key hit and the Tides seemed to win all the close games.

On August 21, with only 16 games left in the season, the Tides played Durham. Durham led 4-1 after 7; the Tides scored 1 in the eighth. In the ninth, trailing 4-2, the Tides led off with two singles and a double to make it 4-3. An intentional walk loaded the bases with no one out; a sacrifice fly tied the game and advanced the winning run to third. Unfortunately for Tides fans, late-season hero Corban Joseph struck out on a 3-2 pitch in the dirt and L.J. Hoes grounded out. Momentum failed the Tides as Jake Hager led off the top of the tenth with a home run and Durham held on for the win. In the fourth and final phase of their season, the Tides went 6-10 although they weren't finally eliminated from the postseason chase until September 3.

In subsequent articles, I will examine the seasons and futures of many of the 2016 Tides. These articles will not be heavy on statistical analysis but are based on my observations of 50 Tides games (49 of which I scored either for MLB Advance Media or Baseball Info Solutions.)

Ariel Miranda Wasn't Going to Help the Orioles

Joe Reisel's Archives

Many Orioles fans were disappointed when the only deadline-day acquisition the Orioles made to improve their pitching staff was Wade Miley, a well-traveled pitcher often described as a durable innings-eater. Despite Dylan Bundy's recent outstanding performances, it's still believed that the Orioles needed another pitcher good enough to start a post-season game, and Miley really isn't that. Acquiring Miley is reminiscent of the Scott Feldman acquisition of 2013, for whom (and Steve Clevenger) the Orioles traded Jake Arrieta (and Pedro Strop). To get Miley, the Orioles traded Ariel Miranda, a left-handed starting pitcher and a Cuban émigré who signed with the Orioles in May 2015.

Before the 2016 season, Baseball America rated Miranda as the 23rd-best prospect in the Orioles' organization. He pitched 70 innings in 14 2015 starts, mostly with Advanced-A Frederick and AA Bowie. After some early-season fiddling with their minor-league rosters, the Orioles assigned Miranda to AAA Norfolk on April 11 and he's been in the Tides' rotation ever since.

How good a prospect is Ariel Miranda, really? How likely is it that the Orioles will regret trading him the way they might be regretting trading Josh Hader, Zach Davies, or Arrieta? Or is he more like Xavier Avery, L.J. Hoes, or Nick Delmonico, other prospects the Orioles traded for veterans? I scored, either as the BAM datacaster or for Baseball Info Solutions, five of Miranda's starts and may have some insights.

First, it's important to remember that Miranda, at age 27, is only two years and two months younger than Miley. That doesn't mean that Miranda can't be a good pitcher or that he's not a prospect, but it does mean that he's probably physically mature.

What struck me most about Miranda was his delivery. He has a twisty, whip-like delivery with a higher leg kick than most pitchers; he reminded me of Dontrelle Willis. I can't prove it, but I believe that pitchers with high leg kicks are more affected by age; as they age, they're less able to maintain their balance during their delivery.

Here are Miranda's pitching lines for the five games I've scored:

Date	Opp.	BFP	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	Dec.
4/11	CHA	22	4.2	6	1	1	2	6	ND
4/23	DUR	17	4.1	2	0	0	2	6	ND
6/18	DUR	23	7	1	0	0	1	9	ND
7/8	SYR	28	6.2	5	2	2	2	1	ND
7/23	TOL	26	5.2	8	3	3	2	6	W

It's clear that I've seen Miranda at his best. In these five games, his ERA is 1.91; overall, his Norfolk ERA was 3.93. His strikeout-to-walk ratio in these games was 3.11; overall, 2.81. His strikeouts-per-nine-inning ratio in these games was 8.89; overall, 7.78. While on the surface his performance in these games may suggest that he can be a good pitcher, the details reveal something that suggest that he wouldn't be effective in Camden Yards.

The below table shows the total number of ground balls, fly balls, line drives, walks and strikeouts Miranda induced. The batted-ball totals include hits, errors, and outs, and so are more complete than the data in the official statistics. Also, there is a discrepancy between these results and the above lines because of hit batsmen.

Ground Balls	28
Fly Balls	35
Line Drives	13
Walks	9
Strikeouts	28

Even pitching well, Miranda has fly-ball tendencies. That works well in Norfolk's Harbor Park, which has a large center-field area and is at a low altitude, but won't work well in Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Because of this, I don't think Miranda would have been effective pitching at Camden Yards, and consequently would not have been effective as an Oriole. Because of that, and because of Miranda's relatively advanced age, I don't think the Orioles will regret trading him.

Oliver!


Joe Reisel's Archives




Oliver Drake, consider yourself a major-league caliber pitcher. Photo courtesy of Steven Goldburg/Norfolk Tides.

On June 21, the Orioles recalled relief pitcher Oliver Drake from their AAA affiliate, the Norfolk Tides. I believed that promotion was long overdue, even granting that the Orioles have had several right-handed relief pitchers, because Drake had pitched very effectively. For example, I didn't understand why the Orioles promoted the relatively inexperienced Mychal Givens when Drake was pitching more effectively at a higher level and had a longer track record than Givens.

There's no denying that Oliver Drake has pitched very well for Norfolk. Last season, Drake had a 0.82 ERA - and allowed zero unearned runs - while striking out 66 batters in 44 innings. He did walk 16 in those 44 innings, but he balanced that by only allowing 23 hits and 1 home run. This season, he had a period during which he struggled, but he still has a 2.02 ERA with 42 strikeouts in 26 2/3 innings. He has allowed more baserunners - 13 walks and 18 hits in those 26 2/3 innings - but over is last 12 innings, he allowed no runs on 5 hits and 2 walks, with 23 strikeouts.

I believe that almost any pitcher who can be as effective as Oliver Drake has been in AAA can and probably should be an effective major-league set-up man, and there's an excellent chance he could be an effective closer at least for a short time. After all, Jim Henderson closed for a season. When you compare Henderson to Drake, it's ludicrous to think that Oliver Drake can't be a closer.

I do understand the reasoning why Drake hasn't been given a real opportunity. He relies heavily on a trick pitch, his forkball / splitter. And he has a deceptive delivery in which he hides the ball from the batter for a long period. There is a legitimate fear that such trickery won't work against big-league hitters and that batters are swinging at pitches out of the strike zone. The thinking is that major-league hitters will not be fooled and will lay off the non-strikes, forcing Drake to throw his rather ordinary fastball for strikes. The batters will respond by hitting him hard and Drake will be ineffective.

While I have no real way of telling whether major-league hitters will be fooled by his deception, I can look at his performance to see if batters are swinging at pitches out of the zone. Over the past two years, I've scored 77 Norfolk games, 50 in 2015 and 27 so far in 2016. We can look at Drake's pitching and determine if Drake is getting a low percentage of called strikes. The theory behind this is that if Drake isn't getting a low percentage of called strikes, then batters aren't exclusively swinging and missing at pitches out of the strike zone and that Drake can be effective even when he's throwing pitches in the strike zone.

The below table shows the results of the pitches I've Drake throw over the past two seasons:

	Called Ball	Called Strike	Swinging Strike	Foul	In-Play
2015	75	29	50	39	25
2016	77	45	36	36	24

That I've seen Drake throw the same number of pitches in the 27 games I've scored in 2016 as in the 50 games I scored in 2015 is simply luck of the draw; for a variety of reasons I've seen more of the games in which Drake pitched this year than last. That the number of pitches is exactly the same is sheer coincidence.

The data shows that when Drake was extraordinarily effective in 2015, Drake got more strikes on swings in 2015 than he has in 2016. But I don't think the data necessarily implies that batters swung at pitches out of the strike zone in 2015 and stopped doing so in 2016. If that were the case, then Drake would have substantially more called balls in 2016 than in 2015. He doesn't. To me, it's more likely that batters were swinging and missing at borderline pitches in 2015 and taking them in 2016. That would imply that Drake doesn't rely on batters swinging at "bad" pitches and that he doesn't necessarily have to throw more hittable pitches.

Oliver Drake has been extremely effective in AAA over the past season-and-a-half. He's earned a real shot at a major-league job. The Orioles have a very good and very deep bullpen, so Drake may be limited to mop-up roles. He's not the "ideal" relief pitcher candidate because he doesn't have a high-90's fastball, but he has earned a real shot at a big-league job. I believe that Drake should be an effective seventh- or eighth-inning reliever and wouldn't have a problem giving him a chance at being a closer.

(Since this article was originally written, Drake was optioned back to Norfolk after two ineffective outings. Two ineffective outings, of course, mean very little and I stand by the opinions expressed in this article.)

"Left Field, Christian Walker"

Joe Reisel's Archives

With current first baseman Chris Davis signed through the next three Congressional election cycles, and AA first baseman Trey Mancini emerging as this year's prospect de l'annee, last season's prospect de l'annee, AAA first baseman Christian Walker, found himself in danger of being squeezed out of a major-league position with the Orioles. When the Orioles traded for Mark Trumbo and signed Pedro Alvarez as a free agent, Walker fell to #5 on the first base/designated hitter depth chart. Toward the end of spring training, the Orioles decided to try Walker in left field, expecting to increase his versatility and hoping that he might be a viable part of their complex left-field solution.

We, and probably the Orioles, know what Walker would likely contribute offensively. Given his consistent performance at AAA Norfolk and the track record of batters moving from Norfolk to Camden Yards, a reasonable performance for Walker would be .260/.330/.430. This .760 OPS value would translate into a 105 OPS+. This is for a full-season performance; if he was primarily used in a platoon role, he might do better than that.

The question is whether Walker can play left field well enough to be something more than an emergency option. At first blush, it would seem unlikely. Before the 2016 season, Walker had not played professionally at any position besides first base. Generally, teams try to play their prospects at the toughest position they believe they can handle. If the Orioles hadn't tried Walker anywhere other than first base, it seems likely that they didn't think he could play anywhere else.

Christian Walker has played exclusively in left field for the Norfolk Tides. That's not literally true; he's played a few games as the designated hitter, but he hasn't played defense at any position other than left field. Through May 9, I've seen and scored ten Tides games. While this isn't many games for statistical evaluation purposes, there is probably some interest in Walker's performance in left field. So, I'll try to answer the question, "How is Christian Walker's left-field defense?"

Based on my observation, Walker has had two major problems. First, he has had problems judging and tracking fly balls. This should be expected; Walker hasn't had much experience judging fly balls and his performance may improve as he gets experience. Second, Walker doesn't have great speed, especially going toward the walls. On the positive side, Walker does catch and hang on to what he is able to get to. And I haven't seen his throwing arm be challenged; it seems to be neither a positive nor a negative.

However, there are plenty of outfielders who don't look good but who nevertheless get the job done; there are other outfielders who look good but who don't get the job done. I've assembled data I have from the ten Norfolk games I've scored. Specifically, I've compared the left field defense for Walker, Xavier Avery (who played left field in two games in which Walker was the DH), and the Tides' opponents' left fielders. Ten games is not much of a sample; there are many factors which pollute the data. However, if the data shows that Walker is much better than he appeared to be, then I could conclude that appearances are misleading and Walker is a viable left fielder.

The tables below should be pretty self-explanatory. The distinction between "Line Drive" and "Fly Ball" is my own subjective judgment, about which I can say that I have scored games for BIS for eight seasons and there has been no complaint about my over- or under-use of either category. These are balls that were first touched or fielded by the left fielder. The "x" in the cell for Ground Ball - Out represents that any ground ball that gets to the outfield is almost always a hit, the occasional 7-4 or 7-5 force out notwithstanding.

Christian Walker (8 games):

	Out	1B	2B
Line Drive	1	8	4
Fly Ball	13	0	4
Ground Ball	X	6	2

Xavier Avery (2 games):

	Out	1B	2B
Line Drive	0	9	1
Fly Ball	5	1	0
Ground Ball	X	4	0

Tides Opponents (10 games):

	Out	1B	2B
Line Drive	3	9	5
Fly Ball	15	2	2
Ground Ball	X	6	1

The data is this limited sample, by itself, does not prove or disprove that Christian Walker is a good or a bad left fielder. The one potentially significant fact is that every fly ball that Walker didn't catch went for a double. That might mean that Walker isn't good at cutting off hard-hit fly balls and they are getting past him, going for doubles rather than singles. I observed that he had trouble going back on fly balls, and that fly balls that fall in go for doubles tends to support that.

It's early and the data is limited. There are plenty of factors which may explain why more doubles were hit when Walker played left field than when others did. I am certainly not at this time declaring the experiment a failure. But I don't believe that Christian Walker is going to part of the Orioles' left-field solution any time soon.

Clogging The Pipeline

The opening-day roster for the 2016 Norfolk Tides - the Orioles AAA affiliate - was, if not unique, certainly unusual. No one on their roster was a prospect promoted from AA. Oh, infielder Ozzie Martinez and relief pitcher Jason Stoffel spent 2015 at Bowie, and swingman Terry Doyle wasn't promoted to Norfolk until the end of July. But those three players all had significant AAA experience before 2015 and were playing below their level because of organizational need. Those weren't "promotions"; they are more accurately described as "restorations." Not until Game 5 was a player promoted from AA to the Tides - 27-year-old Cuban pitcher Ariel Miranda.

What does this mean? First, the Orioles are as willing as any team to promote a top prospect directly from AA, bypassing AAA. In the Showalter Era, the Orioles promoted Manny Machado, Dylan Bundy, and Kevin Gausman from Bowie to Baltimore (Gausman was later optioned to Norfolk.) Jonathan Schoop was the only comparable prospect who played at Norfolk before being promoted to the Orioles.

Bowie is closer to Baltimore than is Norfolk, and it's easy for the Orioles administration to keep track of AA players at Bowie. They probably have a better sense of whether and when a top prospect can handle the jump to the majors than other teams. Also, it's easier to call a player up from Bowie if he's needed for a tryout in case of injury or doubleheader. So it makes sense for the Orioles to keep a good prospect at AA rather than promoting him to AAA.

It's also obvious that more than almost any other team, the Orioles stash players on their AAA roster to extend the major-league roster. (I was listening to a Detroit Tigers radio broadcast, and their announcers commented that the Orioles routinely shuttle players to and from Norfolk.) This trend is most evident with the bullpen arms as the Orioles often promote pitchers for short stints when the bullpen has been overworked. By stockpiling experienced pitchers on the AAA roster, that keeps other pitchers - who may otherwise be promoted to AAA - at lower levels.

Equally apparent is the fact that the Orioles don't have many good prospects, and most of their better prospects are at lower levels. There was really only one prospect at Bowie who mastered AA in 2015. One of the reasons the Orioles didn't promote anyone from AA to AAA is that there weren't many who deserved it.

But it's possible that the Orioles use of the AAA roster is becoming counterproductive. The one prospect who did enough at AA in 2015 to warrant promotion to AAA was first baseman Trey Mancini. Mancini, who turned 24 in March 2016, hit .359/.395/.586 in 84 games after being promoted from Class A Frederick. Even though Christian Walker would likely return to Norfolk, Mancini could also have been promoted as a first baseman/DH, especially after the Orioles decided to move Walker to the outfield.

Instead, the Orioles have loaded the Norfolk roster with AAA veterans taking Mancini's spot. Right fielder Dariel Alvarez remains a legitimate prospect. And Henry Urrutia, whose chance at becoming a major leaguer disappeared when he missed most of 2014 with a sports hernia, is still around. But the Orioles added two corner players from other organizations - Joey Terdoslavich and L.J. Hoes. Both those players have spent many years at AAA and have failed chances to establish themselves in the majors. It makes no sense to me why you would clutter the AAA roster when you have a prospect ready for the move. I hope that these decisions don't harm Trey Mancini or the Orioles in the long run.