Four Orioles Prospects with the 2016 Tides

Joe Reisel's Archives

During the 2016 season, ten of Baseball America's preseason top 30 Orioles' prospects played at least one game in Norfolk. I was able to see 52 Norfolk games last season, and so my observations and opinions of these prospects might be of interest. This article covers half the prospects; the other half will be covered in a subsequent article.

Chance Sisco, catcher (#4)

Chance Sisco wasn't promoted to Norfolk until after they had played all their home games, so I didn't see him play.

Trey Mancini, first base (#8)

How good is he? Will he have a major-league career? How does he compare to Christian Walker?

Accurately or not, I see at least superficial similarities between Mancini and Christian Walker. Both are right-handed hitting first basemen, drafted in a middle round out of college. Mancini is almost exactly one year younger than Walker. Walker shot to AA in his first full season, but Mancini did not get there until his second full season. Mancini has slightly out-performed Walker at AAA - a .770 OPS vs a .754 OPS.

It's important to remember that Norfolk's Harbor Park is a pitcher's park. It's especially hard on a player like Mancini, a right-handed hitter who's more of a line-drive hitter with a little power, rather than a true slugger. Mancini was also much better at Bowie than he was at Norfolk. Given that, I think his .770 OPS is a reasonable estimate of what he'll do in Baltimore, moving to a better hitting environment. His OBP will probably drop some but his SP will probably increase by about as much. Looking for players who hit about as well as I think Mancini would, the best comp I found was David Freese.

Freese is a better player than we might remember, given that he was a last-minute free agent signing last season. And if Mancini were a third baseman, he'd be a solid regular. But Mancini has only played first base, and he hasn't yet hit well enough to be show that he'd be a championship-quality  first baseman. He can still improve, although probably not dramatically.

I was struck by a couple of things about Mancini, but I'm not sure if my perception is accurate. I thought he was too aggressive in run-producing situations to the extent that I really wasn't expecting him to drive in the runs in key situations. He also struck out more than I expected. I'll be taking a more detailed look at his performance later in the off-season.

Is he good trade bait?

He's a right-handed hitting first baseman who hasn't yet shown himself to be a great hitter. He won't bring much back.

Mike Wright, pitcher (#10)

Can he be a major-league pitcher?

He's been terrible as a starter in the major leagues, and I suspect his chances of being a starter with the Orioles are gone. On the other hand, he's been effective the past two seasons at Norfolk, although last season his strikeout rate deteriorated while his walk rate improved.

Two things about Wright. First, I wonder if he has concentration problems. He generally hasn't pitched well when he's been given early run support. It could be that he lets up too much when he's given a lead. Second, he generally is more effective when he strikes out fewer batters. I suspect that the harder he throws, the more hittable his pitches become because they move less.

This pattern - general ineffectiveness in the major leagues and general effectiveness in the minor leagues - is that of Jake Arrieta. Arrieta had more periods of sustained major-league success than Wright has had, and I am in no way declaring that if Wright got to another team, he'd be another Jake Arrieta. I do think his chances for success will be higher if he gets in another organization.

Dariel Alvarez, right fielder (#13)

Is he a major-league player?

If you took his best offensive numbers out of his two AAA seasons - a .287 batting average, 38 doubles, 16 home runs - that's good enough to play regularly. Unfortunately, (1) he didn't put those numbers in the same season and (2) he doesn't walk, so his on-base percentage is low. And his defense, which was quite good in 2015, deteriorated in 2016, perhaps because he was discouraged. With all that, he probably won't win a major-league job but might get one if all other options fail.

He's a lot like Adonis Garcia of Atlanta - a Cuban expatriate who spent a few years in AAA before falling into a job as the Braves' 2016 third baseman. He didn't play well, but will probably keep his job because the Braves don't have anybody better ready. That's the best case for Alvarez - he gets a job filling a gaping hole on a bad team.

Could he be a bench player?

It's hard to see it. He doesn't hit well enough to be an offensive asset; he probably can't play center field except on an emergency basis. A bench outfielder, especially in the American League, either has to really hit or play center field passably. He'd probably be a little better than Nolan Reimold, if that's what you're hoping for.

Christian Walker, left fielder/first baseman (#14)

How's the conversion to the outfield going?

He's not yet ready to play the outfield in the major leagues.

I'm willing to give Walker a mulligan for much of 2016. His father died suddenly in mid-season; he missed several days to attend services and he obviously was distracted when he came back. He seemed to be improving until his father's death; after he came back, he regressed.

It's obvious that he's never going to be a good outfielder. He's slow, has trouble tracking the ball, and doesn't have a good arm. He does catch what he can get to - he just can't get to enough.

He's been remarkably consistent offensively in his 2+ years at Norfolk. He's a .260/.325/.430 hitter. I thought last year that Billy Butler was a reasonable comp for Walker, and I still think that. Walker probably wouldn't be quite as good a hitter as Butler, but he'd be a better defensive first baseman.

Contributions From The Orioles' Non-Prospects

Game Day Employee - The [Norfolk] Tides' offense has just been terrible for the last three weeks. What's gone wrong?

Me: Their offense was never their strength to begin with, and Harbor Park depresses their offense. The real problem, though, is that when Parmelee got hurt, and Reimold, Urrutia, and Alvarez got promoted, there wasn't a good player to promote. That's partly because the Orioles have a terrible farm system, so there isn't any depth to promote from.

Press Box Visitor - How can the Orioles have a terrible farm system when their AAA and AA teams are leading their divisions and going to make the playoffs?

Tides Staffer, diplomatically - Well, I wouldn't say the farm system is terrible - the Orioles promote lots of players to help the big league team. Yeah, it is short in prospects, but it is functioning.

That is a paraphrase of a conversation that occurred in the press box before the last 2015 Norfolk Tides' home game. The Tides, who at one point had a six-and-a-half game lead in their division, staggered into the International League playoffs by losing 13 of their last 19 games. In this article, I do not intend to review the Tides' season, or to evaluate the Orioles farm system. Rather, I will explore the possibility that the Orioles' farm system is underrated because, while it may lack star-quality prospects, it's doing the job the Orioles need - providing players to fill holes on the major-league roster.

Commentators on and evaluators of minor-league organizations have emphasized the role of developing young talent into major-league stars. They rate farm systems by the amount and quality of its potential "impact players". In my opinion, these evaluations overemphasize young "lottery tickets" in the low minor league and under-emphasize higher-floor, lower-ceiling players - but that's another article. But a minor-league organization does have another role - to provide immediate help to the major-league team when needed. A seventeen-year-old in the Dominican Summer League may eventually become a Hall-of-Fame-quality player, but if your team needs a left fielder right now, that DSL rookie won't help.

The Orioles' farm system in 2015, and for the past few years, has primarily focused on having players available to fill immediate major-league needs. They have signed many 25-to-29-year old minor league free agents, many with major league experience, to free-agent contracts and assigned them to AAA Norfolk and AA Bowie, with the idea that they will be promoted to Baltimore if they play well and if the Orioles need them. The Tides' and Baysox' 2015 success is due, in large part, because the Orioles signed many of the best minor-league free agents. The Orioles called upon some of these minor league veterans to fill in when needed because an existing major-leaguer was tired, injured, or ineffective. If these veterans did the job, then it could be argued that the Orioles' minor-league system has been underrated. So, how much did the 2015 Orioles get from the players in their minor-league system whom the experts did not include when making their evaluations?

I will look at the 2015 Orioles to identify the players who (1) were on an Orioles' minor-league team at the start of 2015; (2) were promoted to the major-league team during the season; and (3) were not listed on the depth chart of prospects in the Baseball America 2015 Prospect Handbook. I believe that players not even listed on the organizational depth chart are not considered when BA evaluates farm systems. It is these players whose contributions were not, and possibly should have been, included in farm system evaluations.

The tables below include the position players (top) and pitchers (bottom) who meet the above qualifications. The data is through September 20:

Name	PA	Slash	OPS+
Nolan Reimold	155	.248/.335/.401	100
Chris Parmelee	102	.216/.255/.433	83
Steve Clevenger	79	.303/.329/.434	106
Rey Navarro	30	.276/.276/.448	93
Paul Janish	21	.250/.238/.300	46

Name	IP	ERA+
Chaz Roe	41	111
Oliver Drake	12 2/3	119
Steve Johnson	4	50
Cesar Cabral	1	---

The Orioles have gotten quite a bit out of the non-prospects in their system. Nolan Reimold has played about as much in left field as any other 2015 Oriole, and at least offensively has been the best of the bunch. (Other than Reimold and Chris Davis, the best OPS+ of anyone who has played corner outfield for even one inning for the 2015 Orioles is 90.) Steve Clevenger has been a productive bat as a third catcher and part-time DH. Chaz Roe has pitched very well in middle relief. Oliver Drake has pitched a few effective innings. There's at least a prima facie case that the Orioles farm system was better than the experts thought, because there were productive players not accounted for.

To determine whether or not the Orioles' farm system should be rated more highly relative to other teams because of Reimold, Roe, and Clevenger, we'd have to identify contributions to other teams by"non-prospects". We can say that, given that the Orioles didn't have a lot of young prospects to provide immediate help, they adapted and used their farm system efficiently. And it's possible that immediately-useful players like Chaz Roe and Nolan Reimold make their farm system better than rated by the evaluators.

But we also have to be reasonable. While Reimold and Roe have been useful to the 2015 Orioles, they're not likely to become key, long-term contributors. It's unlikely that the contributions of Reimold and Roe, when added to the Orioles' traditional prospects, will drastically change how we look at their system.

The Ones They Gave Away - Nick Delmonico and Josh Hader

During the 2013 season, the Orioles traded two prospects in an ultimately unsuccessful attempt to make the postseason. On July 23, the Orioles traded Nick Delmonico to acquire relief pitcher Francisco Rodriguez from the Brewers. On July 31, the Orioles included Josh Hader in a package to acquire starting pitcher Bud Norris from the Astros. Going into the 2013 season, Baseball America ranked Delmonico as the number 4 prospect in the Orioles system, and he had produced a .819 OPS at High-A Frederick. Baseball America had ranked Hader as the #19 prospect in the Orioles system, an impressive ranking for a nineteenth-round draft pick in the season he was drafted. Hader made the midseason all-star team in the Low-A South Atlantic League in 2013, and had pitched 85 innings with a 2.65 ERA.

Both Delmonico and Hader ranked among their new team's top 30 prospects in Baseball America's 2014 Prospect Handbook. Delmonico is the Brewers' number 12 prospect, and Hader is the Astros' number 14 prospect. That raises an interesting question - if Delmonico and Hader were still in the Orioles' system, where would they rank?

Before I look more closely at that question, I need to mention a few points about prospect rankings. The Depot has provided its 2014 top ten prospect rankings, as have many other people and organizations. We should remember that "ten" is an arbitrary number and that there may not be much difference between the tenth-best prospect - who makes the list - and perhaps the fifteenth-best, who doesn't. We should also remember that a specific rank may be determined by the evaluator's personal biases, especially for players rated closely together. The Depot is, in our own words, more bullish on Christian Walker than most - in part, I think, because Walker represents a class of player Jon believes to be undervalued. I am more bearish on Mike Wright than most, because I've seen Wright pitch twice and was unimpressed. I did see Nick Delmonico play on June 4 and Josh Hader pitch on June 9, and they played well. While I'm going to try to not let my experience color my judgment, be forewarned that it might.

As a standard for measuring prospects, I'm going to use Baseball America's grade/risk system from its Prospect Handbook. The grade, on what is essentially a 40-80 system, is an attempt to measure a prospect's realistic ceiling, with a 40 being a bench player or low-leverage relief pitcher and 75-80 being a franchise cornerstone. The risk, ranging from extreme to safe, is an attempt to measure how much more development the prospect needs to reach his ceiling. Delmonico and Hader are both 50/High, which means BA thinks their realistic ceiling is solid-average regular player who might play in an all-star game in a good year (for Delmonico) or fourth starter on a typical playoff team (for Hader) but that they'll have to develop quite a bit to reach that ceiling.

Another aside - it's somewhat revealing that Delmonico is the twelfth-best prospect in a bad farm system (BA ranks the Brewers 29th) and that Hader is the fourteenth-best prospect in a good farm system (the Astros are fifth.) If this is typical - every farm system's tenth-through-fifteenth prospects are all graded 50/high - it means that the differences among farm systems is either at the very front end, at the back end, or both.

The Orioles have several prospects whom Baseball America grades at 50/High:

• #6 Tim Berry
• #8 Mike Wright
• #9 Michael Ohlman
• #11 Zach Davies
• #12 Adrian Marin
• #13 Josh Hart
• #14 Steven Brault

BA's #10 prospect is Chance Sisco, whom they grade at 55/Extreme, virtually equivalent to 50/High with a higher peak but more development required. Their #7 prospect is Henry Urrutia, an older Cuban refugee whom they grade at 45/Low. His unusual background makes him less of a traditional prospect; for this exercise I'll leave him out of the discussion. There are legitimate reasons for ranking him ahead of this prospect cluster and legitimate reasons for ranking him behind this prospect cluster. I will also leave Sisco, Hart, and Brault out of the discussion because I know almost nothing about them. They were players acquired in the June 2013 draft and have played less than a full season of professional ball.

The obvious player to compare Nick Delmonico to is Michael Ohlman. Both are bat-first players who really project as first basemen or left fielders - Delmonico has played third base but it's questionable if he can stick there; Ohlman is nominally a catcher but almost certainly won't stick there. (Ohlman caught 1/3 of the games at Frederick last season; the others were split between Allan de san Miguel, a 25-year-old minor league free agent, and Zane Chavez, a 26-year-old independent league refugee.) Both played at high-A in 2013. Neither Delmonico nor Ohlman has been durable.

There are some differences. Delmonico is eighteen months younger than Ohlman. Delmonico hits left-handed, Ohlman right-handed. Ohlman had a much better 2013 season than did Delmonico, .313/.410/.524 to .232/.346/.423 (although Delmonico's numbers were depressed by his time with the Brewers' Florida State League affiliate.) Delmonico has been consistent in his two professional seasons; Ohlman's 2013 was substantially better than any other of his seasons and his professional career has been an archetype of inconsistency.

If you believe that Ohlman's 2013 is a consequence of his development, then you would rank Ohlman ahead of Delmonico. If you think Delmonico's youth gives him more development room, then you would rank Delmonico ahead of Ohlman. I don't think there's any question that Delmonico ranks close to Ohlman as a prospect.

The obvious player to compare Josh Hader to is Tim Berry. Both are left-handed starting pitchers listed at 6'3". In 2013, Hader pitched at low-A at age 19; Berry pitched at high-A at age 22. Both strike out around seven batters per nine innings. Hader appears to have more room for physical development than Berry does; he's listed at 160 pounds while Berry is listed at 180 pounds. Berry has much better control than Hader and has been more durable. On the other hand, Berry pitched much worse at Delmarva when he was there than Hader did, and Hader was a year younger. I think it's reasonable to conclude that Hader probably has slightly more upside than Berry does, but also Hader must develop more than Berry.

Both Delmonico and Hader are roughly equal as prospects to Ohlman and Berry, and consequently with the other 50/High prospects mentioned above. So, depending on your subjective preferences, Delmonico and Hader could rank between sixth and sixteenth among the Orioles prospects. The Orioles, in hindsight, would not have made the Delmonico trade and it's still too early to reach a firm conclusion on the Hader trade. But both Delmonico and Hader would have ranked among the better prospects in the Orioles system.

The Walks of L.J. Hoes

It hasn't been a good year for the Orioles' farm system. There have been a few positives — Kevin Gausman has had occasional success in the major leagues; Henry Urrutia is shaking off the rust; Nicky Delmonico and Eduardo Rodriguez are staying the course. But there have been more negatives — Dylan Bundy and Jonathan Schoop have been injured, Branden Kline has struggled; tools players like Brenden Webb and Greg Lorenzo have failed to develop.

Then there's L.J. Hoes.

Going into 2013, L.J. Hoes was projected to be a consistent high-average hitter. However, because he was defensively limited to a corner outfield position, the consensus was that he would have to increase his power to be a productive regular. He hasn't. In 2012, in 82 games at Norfolk, he had an isolated power of .098; in 2013, in 85 games through July 9, he had an isolated power of .099. But Hoes has stepped up his offensive game in a different direction. He's increased his walk rate, from .095 in 2012 to .130 in 2013. As a result, he's improved his on-base percentage from .374 to .405. And if he can keep his on-base percentage near .400 in the major leagues, you'd think he could play regularly, even in a corner outfield spot, even without much power.

But just because Hoes has increased his walk rate doesn't mean that he's become a truly productive player. If most of Hoes walks are coming when opposing pitchers are pitching around Hoes in key situations, or when the opposing pitcher is struck with a bout of wildness, or when a walk does no particular harm, then it's unlikely that Hoes can play regularly in the major leagues. I've looked at 24 of Hoes' walks this season, most from games I've recorded either for MLBAM or BIS but a few from Gameday.

Is Hoes drawing walks at the start of the inning, at the end of the inning, or in the middle of a rally? How many outs are there when he draws his walks?

Nine of the 24 walks were drawn with no outs; six with one out; eight with two outs. That's good; walks are more valuable at the start of an inning or rally; less valuable late in the inning.

Is Hoes drawing walks when he could be driving in runners already on base? Is he too passive?

Of the twenty-four walks I've looked at, seventeen have come with no runners on base. Five have come with a runner on first base only; one with a runner on second base only; and one with runners on first and second. It's safe to say that he's not getting the walks because he's being pitched around in key situations. It's interesting that none of these walks were drawn with a runner on third base, so he's not missing chances to drive in a run with a fly or ground out.

Combining the two points, eight walks have been drawn in what we might call leadoff situations (no outs, no one on base), which is generally the best time to draw a walk. He's scored three times after "leadoff" walks. Five were drawn with two outs and no one on base; he did score after one of those five walks when Jason Pridie followed with a home run.

How many pitches does Hoes see when he draws a walk?

Hoes has drawn four 4-pitch walks; six 5-pitch walks; eight 6-pitch walks, five 7-pitch walks; and one 8-pitch walk. During these 24 walks, he's fouled off seven pitches with two strikes.

14 of the 24 walks were drawn when the pitcher clearly was not simply trying to avoid pitching to Hoes (either with four-pitch walks, or with three balls, an automatic strike, and the fourth ball. I am NOT saying that every one of the four- or five- pitch walks was an attempt to pitch around Hoes; I remember that some were clearly not. I'm being very conservative with my interpretation here.)

How often does Hoes score when he draws a walk?

Hoes has scored after six of these twenty-four walks.

What does all this mean?

I don't know. I think it means that L.J. Hoes' increase in walk rate is not a situational fluke, and that Hoes has decided to focus on getting on base rather than hitting for power. If so, and he's able to maintain an on-base percentage of .380 or so in the major leagues, then he should be able to be a productive regular, even at a corner outfield spot, even with sub-.100 isolated power. Back in the 1980's, Mike Hargrove used a similar skill set to have a productive career at first base with the Indians.

I want L.J. Hoes to have a successful major-league career. With the increase in his walk rate, couple with his ability to maintain his .300 batting average, I think he can.