In Trading For Mark Trumbo, Orioles Make Their First Notable Move Of The Offseason

Over the years, the Orioles have expressed interest in acquiring Mark Trumbo. Tonight, it actually happened. Earlier today, Jon Heyman reported that the Orioles were in the Trumbo "sweepstakes." And then in the early evening, Heyman tweeted this out:

Trumbo orioles talk is heating up

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) December 2, 2015

About an hour later, the deal was done. According to Heyman and multiple reporters, the Orioles have acquired Trumbo, a first baseman/corner outfielder/designated hitter, from the Mariners in exchange for catcher Steve Clevenger. The trade is, of course, "pending medical review."

In Trumbo, who turns 30 in January, the Orioles are essentially acquiring what many figured Chris Davis would become before he turned in a couple of truly outstanding seasons and altered his career outlook. That's not to suggest any resurgence is ahead for Trumbo, but he is a useful player. He's a career .250/.300/.458 (108 wRC+) hitter, and he's an absolute masher against left-handed pitching (career 125 wRC+).

Yes, trading for Trumbo gives the Orioles another low OBP option in a lineup that could use some on-base help. But that doesn't mean it's a bad addition. Incorporating another power bat into a low OBP lineup may actually make more sense.

According to UZR and DRS defensive metrics, Trumbo also performed well at first base. Per UZR/150, Trumbo's a +6 defender at first, while DRS has him at +12. So he's not a wizard with the glove or anything, but he is better than Chris Davis (0 UZR/150, -3 DRS).

As you'd probably expect from a first baseman, though, Trumbo is not a good defensive outfielder. In about 1,000 innings each in left field and right field, he's posted UZR/150 numbers of -5 and -12, respectively. And according to DRS, he's been a -2 defender in left and -10 in right.

By itself, the Trumbo trade certainly doesn't move the needle much. But it's easy to see why the Orioles would want to trade for him, even if he's only around for one season. He has one arbitration-eligible year remaining, and MLB Trade Rumors predicts he will make about $9 million in 2016. He's a good enough defender and hitter to take over regular first base duties if Davis signs elsewhere. And even though he's an awful defensive outfielder, he could still be an upgrade in a corner outfield role because of his bat.

Obviously this all depends what else the Orioles plan on doing in free agency or the trade market, but it's not unreasonable to expect Trumbo could see at least some time in the outfield. And, of course, he presents a very nice option at designated hitter for a team that gave extensive at-bats to Jimmy Paredes, Junior Lake, and, yes, Clevenger. As has been discussed repeatedly, the Orioles received terrible production from their corner outfielders and designated hitters last season. Trumbo should help in one or a couple of those positions.

What does this all mean for the O's attempts to re-sign Davis? Probably nothing. The O's are already considered a relative long shot by many to sign Davis because of the amount of money he's going to command, and it's not like the addition of Trumbo blocks Davis's potential return. If Davis were to re-sign, he and Trumbo could easily coexist on this roster. But Trumbo does provide a bit of insurance for 2016 if Davis leaves.

As for Clevenger, it's not all that surprising that the Orioles traded him away -- especially because Matt Wieters accepted his qualifying offer. Clevenger is out of options (which the Orioles covet), and it just wasn't likely that he'd be able to stick on the major-league roster all season. So perhaps you can thank Wieters for this trade. But it's not like the O's were extremely high on Clevenger anyway. Ryan Lavarnway made the Orioles opening day roster ahead of Clevenger last year, and Clevenger (and especially his agent!) weren't happy about the decision.

The Orioles also seemed to favor Clevenger's bat more than his catching acumen. Still, at 29 and with limited major-league experience (64 wRC+ in 446 plate appearances), it wouldn't be unreasonable to see Clevenger as a serviceable backup catcher for a while.

Quick update: The Orioles also received left-handed pitcher C.J. Riefenhauser in the trade for Mark Trumbo. This shouldn't change any thoughts on the deal.

Contributions From The Orioles' Non-Prospects

Game Day Employee - The [Norfolk] Tides' offense has just been terrible for the last three weeks. What's gone wrong?

Me: Their offense was never their strength to begin with, and Harbor Park depresses their offense. The real problem, though, is that when Parmelee got hurt, and Reimold, Urrutia, and Alvarez got promoted, there wasn't a good player to promote. That's partly because the Orioles have a terrible farm system, so there isn't any depth to promote from.

Press Box Visitor - How can the Orioles have a terrible farm system when their AAA and AA teams are leading their divisions and going to make the playoffs?

Tides Staffer, diplomatically - Well, I wouldn't say the farm system is terrible - the Orioles promote lots of players to help the big league team. Yeah, it is short in prospects, but it is functioning.

That is a paraphrase of a conversation that occurred in the press box before the last 2015 Norfolk Tides' home game. The Tides, who at one point had a six-and-a-half game lead in their division, staggered into the International League playoffs by losing 13 of their last 19 games. In this article, I do not intend to review the Tides' season, or to evaluate the Orioles farm system. Rather, I will explore the possibility that the Orioles' farm system is underrated because, while it may lack star-quality prospects, it's doing the job the Orioles need - providing players to fill holes on the major-league roster.

Commentators on and evaluators of minor-league organizations have emphasized the role of developing young talent into major-league stars. They rate farm systems by the amount and quality of its potential "impact players". In my opinion, these evaluations overemphasize young "lottery tickets" in the low minor league and under-emphasize higher-floor, lower-ceiling players - but that's another article. But a minor-league organization does have another role - to provide immediate help to the major-league team when needed. A seventeen-year-old in the Dominican Summer League may eventually become a Hall-of-Fame-quality player, but if your team needs a left fielder right now, that DSL rookie won't help.

The Orioles' farm system in 2015, and for the past few years, has primarily focused on having players available to fill immediate major-league needs. They have signed many 25-to-29-year old minor league free agents, many with major league experience, to free-agent contracts and assigned them to AAA Norfolk and AA Bowie, with the idea that they will be promoted to Baltimore if they play well and if the Orioles need them. The Tides' and Baysox' 2015 success is due, in large part, because the Orioles signed many of the best minor-league free agents. The Orioles called upon some of these minor league veterans to fill in when needed because an existing major-leaguer was tired, injured, or ineffective. If these veterans did the job, then it could be argued that the Orioles' minor-league system has been underrated. So, how much did the 2015 Orioles get from the players in their minor-league system whom the experts did not include when making their evaluations?

I will look at the 2015 Orioles to identify the players who (1) were on an Orioles' minor-league team at the start of 2015; (2) were promoted to the major-league team during the season; and (3) were not listed on the depth chart of prospects in the Baseball America 2015 Prospect Handbook. I believe that players not even listed on the organizational depth chart are not considered when BA evaluates farm systems. It is these players whose contributions were not, and possibly should have been, included in farm system evaluations.

The tables below include the position players (top) and pitchers (bottom) who meet the above qualifications. The data is through September 20:

Name	PA	Slash	OPS+
Nolan Reimold	155	.248/.335/.401	100
Chris Parmelee	102	.216/.255/.433	83
Steve Clevenger	79	.303/.329/.434	106
Rey Navarro	30	.276/.276/.448	93
Paul Janish	21	.250/.238/.300	46

Name	IP	ERA+
Chaz Roe	41	111
Oliver Drake	12 2/3	119
Steve Johnson	4	50
Cesar Cabral	1	---

The Orioles have gotten quite a bit out of the non-prospects in their system. Nolan Reimold has played about as much in left field as any other 2015 Oriole, and at least offensively has been the best of the bunch. (Other than Reimold and Chris Davis, the best OPS+ of anyone who has played corner outfield for even one inning for the 2015 Orioles is 90.) Steve Clevenger has been a productive bat as a third catcher and part-time DH. Chaz Roe has pitched very well in middle relief. Oliver Drake has pitched a few effective innings. There's at least a prima facie case that the Orioles farm system was better than the experts thought, because there were productive players not accounted for.

To determine whether or not the Orioles' farm system should be rated more highly relative to other teams because of Reimold, Roe, and Clevenger, we'd have to identify contributions to other teams by"non-prospects". We can say that, given that the Orioles didn't have a lot of young prospects to provide immediate help, they adapted and used their farm system efficiently. And it's possible that immediately-useful players like Chaz Roe and Nolan Reimold make their farm system better than rated by the evaluators.

But we also have to be reasonable. While Reimold and Roe have been useful to the 2015 Orioles, they're not likely to become key, long-term contributors. It's unlikely that the contributions of Reimold and Roe, when added to the Orioles' traditional prospects, will drastically change how we look at their system.

O's AAA Veterans Have No Trade Value

In an earlier article about the Norfolk Tides, the Orioles' AAA affiliate, I reported that many of my colleagues believed that Paul Janish was the best defensive shortstop they had seen in over 20 years of watching baseball. I didn't fully describe them in my earlier article, but those colleagues were long-time minor league executives (including the legendary Dave Rosenfield) and baseball writers.

Based on that observation, a commenter to another article suggested that another team might want Janish or Steve Clevenger, and so the Orioles might be able to get a useful player back if they trade them. In response, Matt Kremnitzer conservatively replied that he doubted that Janish or Clevenger had any trade value. It's possible that Clevenger might have value, but based on recent history, I will proclaim that Janish has no trade value whatsoever. In 2012, the Orioles had at Norfolk a player similar to Janish with a better track record of success. Indeed, as it turned out, this player proved to have significant value and has proceeded to have a highly successful career. The Orioles did trade this AAA veteran in August.

That player was Pat Neshek. I won't repeat Neshek's entire backstory, but he pitched very well for the Twins in 2006 and 2007. In 2008, he hurt his arm and underwent Tommy John surgery and spent 2010 and 2011 recovering. He signed with the Orioles in 2012 and pitched very well - in 44 innings, he had a 7-49 BB-K ratio, a 2.66 ERA, and 11 saves. He was, in many respects, the pitcher equivalent of Paul Janish - a specialist, who had had some success in the major leagues but had not experienced that major-league success for several seasons. Neshek was 31; Janish is 32.

The Oakland Athletics were engaged in a tight division race with the Rangers and felt that they needed bullpen help. They asked the Orioles about Neshek, and the teams agreed on an exchange. Of course, Neshek has gone on to pitch well since he joined the Athletics, making the 2014 National League All-Star Team and signing an eight-figure contract with Houston this past offseason.

All in all, Neshek has proven to be quite a useful player, especially for a player signed to a minor-league contract as a free agent. When the Orioles dealt Neshek to the Athletics, what did they get for him? Cash. Not a player of any stripe, cash.

The purpose of this history is not to berate the Orioles for not recognizing that Pat Neshek had more value and that they should have kept him; the Orioles had a similar pitcher in Darren O'Day and there wasn't room for Neshek in Baltimore. The purpose is to remind us of how little trade value AAA veterans have. If the Orioles are going to improve themselves for the rest of this season, it won't be by exchanging bargain-basement signings for quality major leaguers.

The July Tides

After the Orioles promoted Nolan Reimold and Chris Parmelee from AAA Norfolk, and some of the fringe AAA players have been released, the Tides have more-or-less settled on a starting lineup of position players. As of this writing (July 3rd) Norfolk is in first place in the International League Southern Division, one-and-a-half games ahead of the White Sox' affiliate Charlotte.

So far this season, I've seen 27 Tides games. This article will provide my thoughts and observations on the eight current Norfolk position-player regulars, without any sophisticated statistical analysis. I will be sharing my opinions on whether and how these players would fit in with and help the Orioles both for 2015 and, if appropriate, beyond.

Before I review each individual player, one general overview. As a team, the 2015 Tides are the best overall AAA defensive team I've seen. And that's not just my opinion - many people who have been following AAA baseball much longer than I have agree. This means that the ERAs of the Orioles pitchers are better than they would be if there was a more typical AAA defense. Given that, and given that Harbor Park is a pitcher's park, we need to be less impressed by Norfolk pitchers' ERAs than we would normally be.

Now, on to the players:

Catcher Steve Clevenger: Clevenger's been up with the Orioles a few times, so he's a known quantity. He's a left-handed hitter, a line-drive hitter with occasional power. He has been playing well and hitting line drives to all fields. He's a solid, if not spectacular, defensive catcher. He'd probably combine well with Caleb Joseph as a semi-platoon catching combination, with Joseph playing against all lefties and maybe half of the righties. Clevenger's even pulled a Steve Pearce and played second base in one game.

First Baseman Christian Walker: Walker got off to a very slow start in 2015 and I feared he was going to become another Brandon Snyder, who had a half-year at AA in which he played much better than he would ever play again. Walker has gotten hotter and he's starting to hit for more power, although he's never going to be a true power hitter. He's a good defensive first baseman. He doesn't really have a role on the 2015 Orioles in that Steve Pearce and Reimold are already filling the role Walker would fill, and those two have more defensive value. Long-term, Walker might be a "good enough" replacement if Chris Davis leaves; I don't think "good enough" is really good enough for the Orioles going forward.

Second Baseman Rey Navarro: Navarro is a better player than I thought he'd be. He's got good range at second base (and he is also the backup shortstop) and an adequate arm. He's got more pop on offense than I was expecting, although he doesn't have the patience he needs and he's not as fast as I had thought. Navarro has tapered off after hitting well when he first joined the Tides. He would be a perfectly fine backup infielder; I wouldn't want to play him as a regular for more than a week or so.

Third Baseman Michael Almanzar: I've written about Almanzar in depth; he's still a solid, if occasionally error-prone, third baseman with a strong, accurate arm. Unfortunately, he's still trying to hit every pitch out of the ball park and still doesn't use the strike zone well, so it's hard to see a major-league future for him.

Shortstop Paul Janish: All of my co-workers agree - Paul Janish is the best defensive shortstop any one of them has seen on a regular basis. That includes Rey Ordonez, who  played a full season in Norfolk. I agree - Janish relies on positioning, reliability, and a strong arm to shut down the left side of the infield. That makes him more of a J.J. Hardy than an Ozzie Smith, so it's hard to see Janish making the Orioles. Unfortunately for Janish, he hits like Rey Ordonez - he doesn't walk and hits too many weak fly balls. He's also in his early thirties. I actually think he could play regularly for the right team - a team with a really strong offense that needs a defensive anchor. That's not the Orioles.

Left Fielder Henry Urrutia: After a 2014 season wrecked by an injury, Urrutia has bounced back and has been hitting the way he hit in 2013. Even though he doesn't walk and doesn't have great speed, he's been the Tides' leadoff hitter and, like Steve Clevenger,  has been hitting line drives all over the field. An Urrutia-type player would fit the Orioles' offense well; the Orioles offense is sustained by home runs and would benefit by having a player who does something else well. It won't be Urrutia; he's not a good defensive outfielder (the one defensive weak spot on the Tides) and he's not quite a good enough hitter to overcome that. Like many other Cuban refugees, he'll have a long professional career in AAA, Japan, and Mexico.

Center Fielder Julio Borbon: Borbon is a good defensive center fielder with above-average range and a playable, if not good, throwing arm. As an offensive player, he doesn't take advantage of his speed; he hits too many balls in the air. Because he doesn't have much power, pitchers are willing to throw him strikes and consequently he doesn't draw many walks. I wouldn't be surprised if Borbon were a September call-up as a pinch-runner and outfielder defensive replacement.

Right Fielder Dariel Alvarez: Alvarez is a good defensive right fielder with good range and an outstanding throwing arm. He can get by in center field on a short-term emergency basis. As a hitter, Alvarez has shown more power than I expected - he's hit 12 home runs so far - and makes more contact than I expected for someone who takes as many bad / wild swings as he does. He doesn't take walks. I don't see him with a role on the Orioles, and he's the kind of player who has to have his good year to help you.

The Tides have been using Sean Halton, a recent call-up from AA Bowie, as their primary designated hitter; he's also seen time as an outfielder when Urrutia or Alvarez is getting a "day off" as the DH. I haven't seen enough of him to have a good opinion.

The Camden Highball (Episode 10): "That's Not Good"

This week's episode of the Camden Highball clocks in at nearly 45 minutes (don't worry, Pat and Nate both got paid overtime).  In this installment of the podcast, we talk with Camden Depot and Beyond the Box Score's Ryan Romano about Bud Norris' 2015 season (hint, see the episode title) and we get his interesting thought on Chris Tillman, and why he may be potentially having trouble missing the strike zone.  We also discuss some thoughts on Steve Pearce as a super utility player and Jimmy Paredes (or as some have called him, the modern day Babe Ruth).  Plus some quick hits on Ryan Lavarnway and Kevin Gausman.

This week also marks the first time since the podcast has been rebooted that we will begin the show featuring a song from a local artist.  This week's artist is Brad Engler.  You can find his music on his website, Spotify, or purchase his 3-song EP, "From the Trees" on iTunes (search: "Brad Engler").  He also writes about baseball on the excellent Phillies blog, Crashburn Alley.

Camden Highball (Episode 10): "That's Not Good"

0:00 - Brad Engler - "Lean Into Me"

4:09 - Pat resists talking about the Washington Capitals

6:32 - Steve Pearce: Super Utility Player?

14:27 - Jimmy Paredes is a hitting machine

21:09 - Ryan Lavarnway instead of Steve Clevenger?

23:45 - Kevin Gausman to AAA

25:54 - Ryan Romano joins the show

27:25 - Ryan talks about Bud Norris' "interesting" start

33:16 - Ryan's thoughts on Chris Tillman

38:11 - Ryan gets positive with Jimmy Paredes and Steve Pearce

Orioles Catching Options to Start the Season

Earlier in the week, Roch Kubatko of MASN reported Matt Wieters would start the season on the disabled list, as he continues to recover from Tommy John surgery.  Last Tuesday, Wieters caught in a game for the first time since May 4, 2014.  Shortly after, the team shut Wieters down due to tendinitis in his surgically repaired elbow.  Despite getting good news after an x-ray came back clean, it’s looking more and more likely that Wieters will begin the 2015 season on the disabled list.  Due to the missed time after being shut down for an entire week, this isn’t necessarily a surprise, especially since Orioles manager Buck Showalter has stated that Wieters would not make the opening day roster as a designated hitter.  Furthermore, he isn’t even needed as a DH, as Matt examined last week.

So if Wieters won’t be on the opening day roster, who will be performing the catching duties for Baltimore?  The answer is likely to be Caleb Joseph, who handled catching duties along with Nick Hundley last year when Wieters’ season ended due to injury.  Joseph earned high praise for defense (especially in the pitch framing department), but his bat was anemic.  His 2014 batting line of .207/.264/.354 (AVG/OBP/SLG) in 275 plate appearances was good for a 72 wRC+.  Despite being well below average at the plate, his play behind it allowed him to produce 0.8 WAR (according to Fangraphs).  And since Fangraphs doesn’t account for pitch framing, it’s very likely that his production is understated.

With Joseph the likely starter, that leaves a roster spot for a backup catcher.  Besides Wieters and Joseph, there have been six other catchers make an appearance in spring training.  Of those six, only 3 remain in major league camp this spring: Steve Clevenger, Ryan Lavarnway, and J.P. Arencibia.  Spring training statistics don’t matter, but here’s how each has performed so far.

If one simply looks at those meaningless numbers, it would appear that no one even wants the backup catching job to start the season.  While none of the current candidates are swinging even a luke warm bat this spring, they wouldn’t have even made it this far if they haven’t had some previous success with the stick.

Clevenger has been a decent hitter in the minor leagues (especially against right-handed pitching), however he has never found consistent success or playing time in the majors, as evidenced by his .210/.270/.295 line in 341 plate appearances.  Lavarnway is a former (almost top) prospect who showed excellent power in the minor leagues (the guy hit 34 combined home runs in AA, AAA, and MLB as a 23 year old in 2011), but has never been viewed by evaluators as someone who could handle his position (he’s a catcher, but in name only).  Additionally, like Clevenger, his career batting line in the major leagues (.201/.249/.315 in 301 PA’s) fails to come anywhere close to his production in the minors.

Steve Clevenger (photo via Keith Allison)

Finally, there’s Arencibia, who actually is a former top prospect (he was ranked #48 by mlb.com in 2011).  Like Lavarnway, Arencibia’s main asset is his power.  However, unlike Lavarnway, Arencibia has actually showed the ability to hit for power in the major leagues.  Another way that he’s similar to Lavarnway is that he doesn’t bring much else to the table offensively or defensively (Fangraphs has his defense being worth -1.7 runs during his career).  Yes, he’s shown he can hit for power in the majors, but when you have a career on-base percentage of .255, it’s not going to help much.

Barring some sort of trade or major revelation in the next two weeks, the opening day backup catcher position is Steve Clevenger’s to lose.  Not only has he performed at least as well as the other options, he also provides a platoon partner for Caleb Joseph as the only left-handed hitting option.  Additionally, he’s likely the best defender of the 3 backup options remaining as well (Showalter has previously praised Clevenger’s defensive work this spring).  If that weren’t enough, Clevenger has an option remaining (Lavarnway and Arencibia do not) and is already on the “at-capacity” 40-man roster (Lavarnway and Arencibia are not).  When Wieters does return, the Orioles could then easily option Clevenger to Norfolk, without having the threat of him being claimed off waivers, as would be the case with the other options.

Let’s be honest, none of these options look all that great.  However, we’re likely only talking about a couple of weeks at most, barring any additional setbacks with Matt Wieters’ elbow. No matter who gets the role of backup catcher, it isn’t something that will make or break the Orioles 2015 season.