Pedro Alvarez - A Pleasant Surprise in Right Field

Joe Reisel's Archives

When the Orioles had announced that they had re-signed free agent Pedro Alvarez to a minor-league contract, and that they were sending him to Norfolk with the intention of converting him to an outfielder, those of us who pay attention to the Norfolk Tides baseball games were dismayed. Last season, we were treated to the experiment of Christian Walker trying to play left field, and it wasn't pretty. And we had less reason to be optimistic about Pedro Alvarez' playing the outfield. Walker, at least, had been a competent first baseman; Alvarez has widely been regarded as a butcher both at third base and at first base. Walker was reasonably athletic-looking; Alvarez has a body reminiscent of Prince Fielder. There wasn't any reason to think that Pedro Alvarez would be anything less than a train wreck in right field.

It's been a month, and I've had plenty of opportunities to see Alvarez play. He's been playing right field, which is a reasonable plan. As a former third baseman, he's got at least a fairly good throwing arm, and right field in Harbor Park is the smaller of the corner fields because of a party deck jutting into the field from the right-field corner. I've seen Alvarez play eleven games in right field; a total of 100 defensive innings (one seven-inning doubleheader game and one twelve-inning game.) And he hasn't been terrible.

Actually, he's been quite a bit better than terrible. In these 100 innings, he has fielded 43 batted balls. (There's also been one home run hit onto the right-field party deck roof, but one can't expect any right fielder to field that.) Of those 43, five were ground balls through the infield and all five went for singles. Again, it's not reasonable for us to expect a right fielder to turn those ground balls into 9-3 putouts. Three of those ground ball singles occurred with no one on base; it is true that on the other two, a runner on first went to third.. However, in each case the single occurred with two outs and a very fast Syracuse Chief on first base - Rafael Bautista and Brian Goodwin. I think we can cut Alvarez some slack for not holding those runners to second base in those conditions.

Twenty-four of those batted balls were, in my judgment, fly balls (as opposed to line drives.) Alvarez was able to catch twenty-two of them for outs. Alvarez doesn't always look elegant and he doesn't run the best routes, but he has more range than I thought he would and he covers enough ground. One of the balls that fell in was hit down the right-field line and went for a double; it's possible although far from certain that the ball "should" have been caught. The other was a pop fly that fell into no-man's land between the first baseman, the second baseman, and Alvarez - and Alvarez was able to recover and force a runner out at second base. And after catching one of the other fly balls Alvarez was able to double a runner off second base.

That leaves fourteen line drives. Every one of those batted balls went for a hit; eleven for singles and three for doubles. I classified four of those line drives as "hard"; essentially, if they weren't hit right at the fielder they'd go for hits. Another one I classified as '"soft"; that was a ball that just got over the infield and rarely do outfielders catch them. The others were medium-speed line drives and it's not good that Alvarez didn't catch any of them.

But, upon further review, there were only two, maybe three, that I would have expected an outfielder to catch. Some of the line drives found a hole in the infield and landed a few feet behind the infield dirt; it's not Alvarez' fault that he couldn't catch them. Others were well-placed; Alvarez could have caught them had he been positioned differently but then he would have given up other territory.

And here too Alvarez is showing his lack of experience. On two of the line-drive singles, a runner scored from second (and on one of them, the batter took second on his throw home.) And, while on three line-drive singles he was able to hold a runner on first to a one-base advance, on another a runner on first advanced to third.

On balance, Alvarez has made 90-95 percent of the plays I would hope a good right fielder would make. Pedro Alvarez has impressed.

The Bowie Boost for First Basemen

Joe Reisel's Archives

Christian Walker (2013-2015 Tides), first baseman on the All-Harbor Park team. Photo courtesy of Steven Goldburg / Norfolk Tides

After I wrote about the Norfolk Tides' catchers while they were an Orioles affiliate, I began to look at the Tides' first basemen of the same time period. I intended to do a similar survey of the first basemen, hoping to find general patterns among a long list of memorable and not-so-memorable names. (Anyone remember Robbie Widlansky?) But I re-discovered something much more interesting and potentially more important than a list of names and trivia. It involved four first basemen were unlike any of the catchers.

Brandon Snyder, Joe Mahoney, Christian Walker, and Trey Mancini arrived in Norfolk as highly-regarded, but not uber-regarded, prospects. (Among the catchers, Matt Wieters was an uber-prospect while none of the others were well thought of.) And all four of the first basemen were coming off outstanding performance at AA Bowie.

Brandon Snyder (facing camera) (2009-2011 Tide). Photo courtesy of Megan Morrow / Norfolk Tides.



The below table shows their Bowie performances.

	Age	G	PA	Slash	OPS
Snyder	22	58	233	.343/.421/.597	1.018
Mahoney	23-24	137	564	.300/.356/.518	.874
Walker	22-23	112	480	.292/.360/.488	.849
Mancini	23-24	101	429	.350/.399/.604	1.003

While Mahoney and Mancini were, perhaps, older than you'd like for AA players, all four put up some pretty impressive numbers. You might like them to take a few more walks, but these numbers are nonetheless impressive on the surface.

But when they were promoted to AAA Norfolk, all four looked a lot more ordinary, as shown in the below table.

		G	PA	Slash	OPS
Snyder	22-24	285	1167	.256/.317/.394	.711
Mahoney	25	132	536	.265/.319/.389	.708
Walker	23-25	313	1332	.260/.324/.429	.754
Mancini	24	125	536	.280/.349/.427	.775

Yes, I know that Norfolk is a level up from Bowie and that Norfolk is a terrible hitter's park. The fact remains that there have been four first basemen who performed very well at Bowie, achieved some prospect love, and then looked much less impressive at Norfolk. And Brandon Snyder and Joe Mahoney - whose careers are essentially defined - have been what we should have expected based on their Norfolk production, not their Bowie production.

Two years after starring at Bowie, Joe Mahoney was out of baseball. Photo courtesy of Allison Veinote / Norfolk Tides.

But this boost appears to be limited to first basemen. The statistics of other Orioles prospects such as Brandon Waring, Jonathan Schoop, L.J. Hoes, and Xavier Avery were not inflated (as much, at least) at Bowie. Obviously I don't believe that there is something special about first basemen that would cause their performance to be uniquely boosted by Bowie. I'm sure that a more detailed analysis would identify shared characteristics that Prince Georges Stadium favors.

As fans, we should learn this lesson - be skeptical of players in general, and first basemen specifically, who produce apparently dominant numbers at Bowie. Wait and see how they do at Norfolk before project them to be a future star. Brandon Snyder, Joe Mahoney, and (most probably) Christian Walker failed to live up to the promise of their Bowie performance.

But at least as compared to the others, Trey Mancini may still become a productive major-league player. Yes, his Norfolk performance dropped significantly from his probably-unsustainable high at Bowie. It's still better than the performance of the other three. While Mancini almost certainly won't be the star hinted at by his Bowie performance we can still be optimistic that he can become a useful major-league player.

Four Orioles Prospects with the 2016 Tides

Joe Reisel's Archives

During the 2016 season, ten of Baseball America's preseason top 30 Orioles' prospects played at least one game in Norfolk. I was able to see 52 Norfolk games last season, and so my observations and opinions of these prospects might be of interest. This article covers half the prospects; the other half will be covered in a subsequent article.

Chance Sisco, catcher (#4)

Chance Sisco wasn't promoted to Norfolk until after they had played all their home games, so I didn't see him play.

Trey Mancini, first base (#8)

How good is he? Will he have a major-league career? How does he compare to Christian Walker?

Accurately or not, I see at least superficial similarities between Mancini and Christian Walker. Both are right-handed hitting first basemen, drafted in a middle round out of college. Mancini is almost exactly one year younger than Walker. Walker shot to AA in his first full season, but Mancini did not get there until his second full season. Mancini has slightly out-performed Walker at AAA - a .770 OPS vs a .754 OPS.

It's important to remember that Norfolk's Harbor Park is a pitcher's park. It's especially hard on a player like Mancini, a right-handed hitter who's more of a line-drive hitter with a little power, rather than a true slugger. Mancini was also much better at Bowie than he was at Norfolk. Given that, I think his .770 OPS is a reasonable estimate of what he'll do in Baltimore, moving to a better hitting environment. His OBP will probably drop some but his SP will probably increase by about as much. Looking for players who hit about as well as I think Mancini would, the best comp I found was David Freese.

Freese is a better player than we might remember, given that he was a last-minute free agent signing last season. And if Mancini were a third baseman, he'd be a solid regular. But Mancini has only played first base, and he hasn't yet hit well enough to be show that he'd be a championship-quality  first baseman. He can still improve, although probably not dramatically.

I was struck by a couple of things about Mancini, but I'm not sure if my perception is accurate. I thought he was too aggressive in run-producing situations to the extent that I really wasn't expecting him to drive in the runs in key situations. He also struck out more than I expected. I'll be taking a more detailed look at his performance later in the off-season.

Is he good trade bait?

He's a right-handed hitting first baseman who hasn't yet shown himself to be a great hitter. He won't bring much back.

Mike Wright, pitcher (#10)

Can he be a major-league pitcher?

He's been terrible as a starter in the major leagues, and I suspect his chances of being a starter with the Orioles are gone. On the other hand, he's been effective the past two seasons at Norfolk, although last season his strikeout rate deteriorated while his walk rate improved.

Two things about Wright. First, I wonder if he has concentration problems. He generally hasn't pitched well when he's been given early run support. It could be that he lets up too much when he's given a lead. Second, he generally is more effective when he strikes out fewer batters. I suspect that the harder he throws, the more hittable his pitches become because they move less.

This pattern - general ineffectiveness in the major leagues and general effectiveness in the minor leagues - is that of Jake Arrieta. Arrieta had more periods of sustained major-league success than Wright has had, and I am in no way declaring that if Wright got to another team, he'd be another Jake Arrieta. I do think his chances for success will be higher if he gets in another organization.

Dariel Alvarez, right fielder (#13)

Is he a major-league player?

If you took his best offensive numbers out of his two AAA seasons - a .287 batting average, 38 doubles, 16 home runs - that's good enough to play regularly. Unfortunately, (1) he didn't put those numbers in the same season and (2) he doesn't walk, so his on-base percentage is low. And his defense, which was quite good in 2015, deteriorated in 2016, perhaps because he was discouraged. With all that, he probably won't win a major-league job but might get one if all other options fail.

He's a lot like Adonis Garcia of Atlanta - a Cuban expatriate who spent a few years in AAA before falling into a job as the Braves' 2016 third baseman. He didn't play well, but will probably keep his job because the Braves don't have anybody better ready. That's the best case for Alvarez - he gets a job filling a gaping hole on a bad team.

Could he be a bench player?

It's hard to see it. He doesn't hit well enough to be an offensive asset; he probably can't play center field except on an emergency basis. A bench outfielder, especially in the American League, either has to really hit or play center field passably. He'd probably be a little better than Nolan Reimold, if that's what you're hoping for.

Christian Walker, left fielder/first baseman (#14)

How's the conversion to the outfield going?

He's not yet ready to play the outfield in the major leagues.

I'm willing to give Walker a mulligan for much of 2016. His father died suddenly in mid-season; he missed several days to attend services and he obviously was distracted when he came back. He seemed to be improving until his father's death; after he came back, he regressed.

It's obvious that he's never going to be a good outfielder. He's slow, has trouble tracking the ball, and doesn't have a good arm. He does catch what he can get to - he just can't get to enough.

He's been remarkably consistent offensively in his 2+ years at Norfolk. He's a .260/.325/.430 hitter. I thought last year that Billy Butler was a reasonable comp for Walker, and I still think that. Walker probably wouldn't be quite as good a hitter as Butler, but he'd be a better defensive first baseman.

"Left Field, Christian Walker"

Joe Reisel's Archives

With current first baseman Chris Davis signed through the next three Congressional election cycles, and AA first baseman Trey Mancini emerging as this year's prospect de l'annee, last season's prospect de l'annee, AAA first baseman Christian Walker, found himself in danger of being squeezed out of a major-league position with the Orioles. When the Orioles traded for Mark Trumbo and signed Pedro Alvarez as a free agent, Walker fell to #5 on the first base/designated hitter depth chart. Toward the end of spring training, the Orioles decided to try Walker in left field, expecting to increase his versatility and hoping that he might be a viable part of their complex left-field solution.

We, and probably the Orioles, know what Walker would likely contribute offensively. Given his consistent performance at AAA Norfolk and the track record of batters moving from Norfolk to Camden Yards, a reasonable performance for Walker would be .260/.330/.430. This .760 OPS value would translate into a 105 OPS+. This is for a full-season performance; if he was primarily used in a platoon role, he might do better than that.

The question is whether Walker can play left field well enough to be something more than an emergency option. At first blush, it would seem unlikely. Before the 2016 season, Walker had not played professionally at any position besides first base. Generally, teams try to play their prospects at the toughest position they believe they can handle. If the Orioles hadn't tried Walker anywhere other than first base, it seems likely that they didn't think he could play anywhere else.

Christian Walker has played exclusively in left field for the Norfolk Tides. That's not literally true; he's played a few games as the designated hitter, but he hasn't played defense at any position other than left field. Through May 9, I've seen and scored ten Tides games. While this isn't many games for statistical evaluation purposes, there is probably some interest in Walker's performance in left field. So, I'll try to answer the question, "How is Christian Walker's left-field defense?"

Based on my observation, Walker has had two major problems. First, he has had problems judging and tracking fly balls. This should be expected; Walker hasn't had much experience judging fly balls and his performance may improve as he gets experience. Second, Walker doesn't have great speed, especially going toward the walls. On the positive side, Walker does catch and hang on to what he is able to get to. And I haven't seen his throwing arm be challenged; it seems to be neither a positive nor a negative.

However, there are plenty of outfielders who don't look good but who nevertheless get the job done; there are other outfielders who look good but who don't get the job done. I've assembled data I have from the ten Norfolk games I've scored. Specifically, I've compared the left field defense for Walker, Xavier Avery (who played left field in two games in which Walker was the DH), and the Tides' opponents' left fielders. Ten games is not much of a sample; there are many factors which pollute the data. However, if the data shows that Walker is much better than he appeared to be, then I could conclude that appearances are misleading and Walker is a viable left fielder.

The tables below should be pretty self-explanatory. The distinction between "Line Drive" and "Fly Ball" is my own subjective judgment, about which I can say that I have scored games for BIS for eight seasons and there has been no complaint about my over- or under-use of either category. These are balls that were first touched or fielded by the left fielder. The "x" in the cell for Ground Ball - Out represents that any ground ball that gets to the outfield is almost always a hit, the occasional 7-4 or 7-5 force out notwithstanding.

Christian Walker (8 games):

	Out	1B	2B
Line Drive	1	8	4
Fly Ball	13	0	4
Ground Ball	X	6	2

Xavier Avery (2 games):

	Out	1B	2B
Line Drive	0	9	1
Fly Ball	5	1	0
Ground Ball	X	4	0

Tides Opponents (10 games):

	Out	1B	2B
Line Drive	3	9	5
Fly Ball	15	2	2
Ground Ball	X	6	1

The data is this limited sample, by itself, does not prove or disprove that Christian Walker is a good or a bad left fielder. The one potentially significant fact is that every fly ball that Walker didn't catch went for a double. That might mean that Walker isn't good at cutting off hard-hit fly balls and they are getting past him, going for doubles rather than singles. I observed that he had trouble going back on fly balls, and that fly balls that fall in go for doubles tends to support that.

It's early and the data is limited. There are plenty of factors which may explain why more doubles were hit when Walker played left field than when others did. I am certainly not at this time declaring the experiment a failure. But I don't believe that Christian Walker is going to part of the Orioles' left-field solution any time soon.

The July Tides

After the Orioles promoted Nolan Reimold and Chris Parmelee from AAA Norfolk, and some of the fringe AAA players have been released, the Tides have more-or-less settled on a starting lineup of position players. As of this writing (July 3rd) Norfolk is in first place in the International League Southern Division, one-and-a-half games ahead of the White Sox' affiliate Charlotte.

So far this season, I've seen 27 Tides games. This article will provide my thoughts and observations on the eight current Norfolk position-player regulars, without any sophisticated statistical analysis. I will be sharing my opinions on whether and how these players would fit in with and help the Orioles both for 2015 and, if appropriate, beyond.

Before I review each individual player, one general overview. As a team, the 2015 Tides are the best overall AAA defensive team I've seen. And that's not just my opinion - many people who have been following AAA baseball much longer than I have agree. This means that the ERAs of the Orioles pitchers are better than they would be if there was a more typical AAA defense. Given that, and given that Harbor Park is a pitcher's park, we need to be less impressed by Norfolk pitchers' ERAs than we would normally be.

Now, on to the players:

Catcher Steve Clevenger: Clevenger's been up with the Orioles a few times, so he's a known quantity. He's a left-handed hitter, a line-drive hitter with occasional power. He has been playing well and hitting line drives to all fields. He's a solid, if not spectacular, defensive catcher. He'd probably combine well with Caleb Joseph as a semi-platoon catching combination, with Joseph playing against all lefties and maybe half of the righties. Clevenger's even pulled a Steve Pearce and played second base in one game.

First Baseman Christian Walker: Walker got off to a very slow start in 2015 and I feared he was going to become another Brandon Snyder, who had a half-year at AA in which he played much better than he would ever play again. Walker has gotten hotter and he's starting to hit for more power, although he's never going to be a true power hitter. He's a good defensive first baseman. He doesn't really have a role on the 2015 Orioles in that Steve Pearce and Reimold are already filling the role Walker would fill, and those two have more defensive value. Long-term, Walker might be a "good enough" replacement if Chris Davis leaves; I don't think "good enough" is really good enough for the Orioles going forward.

Second Baseman Rey Navarro: Navarro is a better player than I thought he'd be. He's got good range at second base (and he is also the backup shortstop) and an adequate arm. He's got more pop on offense than I was expecting, although he doesn't have the patience he needs and he's not as fast as I had thought. Navarro has tapered off after hitting well when he first joined the Tides. He would be a perfectly fine backup infielder; I wouldn't want to play him as a regular for more than a week or so.

Third Baseman Michael Almanzar: I've written about Almanzar in depth; he's still a solid, if occasionally error-prone, third baseman with a strong, accurate arm. Unfortunately, he's still trying to hit every pitch out of the ball park and still doesn't use the strike zone well, so it's hard to see a major-league future for him.

Shortstop Paul Janish: All of my co-workers agree - Paul Janish is the best defensive shortstop any one of them has seen on a regular basis. That includes Rey Ordonez, who  played a full season in Norfolk. I agree - Janish relies on positioning, reliability, and a strong arm to shut down the left side of the infield. That makes him more of a J.J. Hardy than an Ozzie Smith, so it's hard to see Janish making the Orioles. Unfortunately for Janish, he hits like Rey Ordonez - he doesn't walk and hits too many weak fly balls. He's also in his early thirties. I actually think he could play regularly for the right team - a team with a really strong offense that needs a defensive anchor. That's not the Orioles.

Left Fielder Henry Urrutia: After a 2014 season wrecked by an injury, Urrutia has bounced back and has been hitting the way he hit in 2013. Even though he doesn't walk and doesn't have great speed, he's been the Tides' leadoff hitter and, like Steve Clevenger,  has been hitting line drives all over the field. An Urrutia-type player would fit the Orioles' offense well; the Orioles offense is sustained by home runs and would benefit by having a player who does something else well. It won't be Urrutia; he's not a good defensive outfielder (the one defensive weak spot on the Tides) and he's not quite a good enough hitter to overcome that. Like many other Cuban refugees, he'll have a long professional career in AAA, Japan, and Mexico.

Center Fielder Julio Borbon: Borbon is a good defensive center fielder with above-average range and a playable, if not good, throwing arm. As an offensive player, he doesn't take advantage of his speed; he hits too many balls in the air. Because he doesn't have much power, pitchers are willing to throw him strikes and consequently he doesn't draw many walks. I wouldn't be surprised if Borbon were a September call-up as a pinch-runner and outfielder defensive replacement.

Right Fielder Dariel Alvarez: Alvarez is a good defensive right fielder with good range and an outstanding throwing arm. He can get by in center field on a short-term emergency basis. As a hitter, Alvarez has shown more power than I expected - he's hit 12 home runs so far - and makes more contact than I expected for someone who takes as many bad / wild swings as he does. He doesn't take walks. I don't see him with a role on the Orioles, and he's the kind of player who has to have his good year to help you.

The Tides have been using Sean Halton, a recent call-up from AA Bowie, as their primary designated hitter; he's also seen time as an outfielder when Urrutia or Alvarez is getting a "day off" as the DH. I haven't seen enough of him to have a good opinion.

The Camden Highball (Episode 8): Get to Know Your Orioles Prospects

On this week's episode of the Camden Highball, Pat and Nate talk about Ubaldo's ejection, Pablo Sandoval's techniques for breaking up the double play, and some small sample size issues for the Baltimore offense.  Following that discussion, they talk to Tucker Blair of the Baseball Prospectus prospect team to get his thoughts on the Orioles minor league system, which players he likes more (or less) than the general consensus, what he sees so far this year in Dylan Bundy, and what happens when you don't wear the proper scouting attire to a game.

Camden Highball (Episode 8): Get to Know Your Orioles Prospects

1:30 - Ubaldo's ejection
4:40 - Schoop hits the DL
7:50 - Small Sample Sizing the offense
14:07 - BP's Tucker Blair joins the show
15:22 - Overall state of the Orioles minor league system
16:53 - Thoughts on Dylan Bundy
23:03 - Christian Walker as the 2016 first baseman?
25:48 - Under the radar Orioles prospect
28:42 - Over-hyped Orioles prospect
29:44 - Quick talk on Hunter Harvey

Christian Walker, Future First Baseman?

Christian Walker reacts to being the subject of a Camden Depot article. Photo courtesy of Les Treagus / Norfolk Tides.

Christian Walker could be the Official Orioles' Prospect of Camden Depot. At the very least, he appears to be our editor's favorite prospect. The Depot bucked consensus by naming Walker as its #10 prospect and described as "the makings of a big league player surround Walker ... if mechanics or physical development can [improve] his power from average to plus, he becomes ... a first division starter."

Walker started the 2014 season at AA Bowie, and dominated (.301/.367/.516; .301-20-77). At the AAA all-star break, he was promoted to AAA Norfolk (the Orioles sold Brett Wallace to the Blue Jays organization to make room for him.) He immediately became the Tides' regular first baseman and has performed essentially as well (.297/.387/.475 through August 14. This line is a little bit higher than we should expect, because Walker has hit two of his four home runs in Columbus, the best home-run park in the league.) With Chris Davis' struggles, Orioles fans may dream that Christian Walker could become a low-cost option at first base, allowing the Orioles to not sign Davis at the price he'll likely demand.

I've seen Christian Walker play six games at Norfolk and he's performed well. What's most impressive is that he's consistently hit line drives, and he's been very successful when he does hit line drives:

Grounder	Line Drive	Fly	Walk	Strikeout
4	8	6	4	4
.250/.250/.250	.875/.875/1.125	.400/.333/1.000

The first row is the number of such balls Walker has hit; the second line is his slash line when he hits one of those balls. When he put the ball in play, almost 45% of the time he hit a line drive. And while we can't expect him to continue to hit that well, and we certainly can't expect him to hit .875 when he hits a line drive, the fact that he hit as many line drives when he moved up to a higher level is encouraging.

Also encouraging is his strike-zone judgment in these six games:

Balls: 38

Called Strikes: 8

Swinging Strikes: 14

Fouls: 21

In-play: 18

In his entire AAA tenure - not just the six games I've seen - Walker has been drawing walks at a significantly higher rate than any other time in his professional career. It remains to be seen if his rate will drop off to his previous levels, but it is noteworthy that the pitches he didn't swing at are not strikes and he's not missing at a lot of the pitches he is swinging at.

When a first baseman is promoted in mid-season from Bowie to Norfolk, I'm instantly reminded of Brandon Snyder, who accumulated an impressive stat line at Bowie. It soon became clear that Snyder had been playing over his head, and he proved to be a mediocre AAA player. Walker has been more impressive than Snyder ever was, and I think he might live up to the Depot's projection and become a solid major-league regular.