Wade Miley Couldn't Finish Off Hitters in 2017

The Orioles finished the 2017 season with a record of 75-87, the team’s first losing season since 2011. The end of the season was almost spectacularly disappointing, as the Orioles went 7-21 over the month of September (and October). While the bad month finally torpedoed what little chances the team had of making the playoffs, losing 19 of the last 23 games probably doesn’t leave fans with to much hope for the 2018 season, at least in the first few days following the end of the season. And while the 2017 season was extremely frustrating at times (especially on the pitching side of the ball), there are definitely some positives that can be taken into next year. As our own Jon Shepherd tweeted following yesterday’s game…

2018 looks exciting.

— Camden Depot (@CamdenDepot) October 1, 2017

And it’s true! The 2018 season looks like it’s going to be extremely exciting! Unfortunately, this post won’t be looking at the positives of the 2017 season or what to look forward to in the 2018 season. I’m sure someone will do that post either here or somewhere else in the coming days (and if no one does, I promise I will write one in two weeks).

No, this post brings us back to the worst part of the 2017 season, the starting pitching. Now that the season is finished, I feel like it’s a good time to make a confession: I don’t watch many Orioles baseball games. For that matter, I don’t watch many other baseball games either. I wish I could watch more, but other life responsibilities (mainly kids) take up a lot of my free time these days. Fortunately, I am able to keep up with what is going on from the local beat writers, twitter, other Camden Depot bloggers, and the many excellent Orioles blogs out there on the internet.

Despite not getting to sit down and watch too many games, I do catch snippets here and there. And I happened to catch Wade Miley’s 5th inning against the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday. Like much of Wade Miley’s 2017 season, it didn’t go well. He faced two batters, giving up a solo home run to Evan Longoria on an 0-2 fastball, and giving up a double to Logan Morrison on…an 0-2 fastball.

Wade Miley vs Evan Longoria

Wade Miley vs Logan Morrison

I thought it odd (or at least unusual) that Miley not only gave up back to back hits on 0-2 pitches, but that those hits were smoked. I decided to look into it a little further, and as a result, I found that it appeared that Miley had a lot of trouble finishing off hitters in 2017.

Other than his Zone% and F-Strike%, Miley’s Plate Discipline numbers at Fangraphs don’t look all that different than his career levels. Miley’s never been a strikeout pitcher, so the fact that he had an 8.1% swinging strike rate (and that it was the 9th lowest in all of baseball for pitchers with a minimum of 150 IP) didn’t strike me as all that surprising. However, generally when a pitcher gets to an 0-2 count, the odds shift greatly in his favor. While Miley has been a better pitcher when he gets the count to 0-2 (as he should), he’s been well worse than the league average in 2017.

Wade Miley in 2017 in 0-2 counts vs the league average

I don’t how necessary it is, but let’s take a look at some slightly different numbers for the same situation.

Wade Miley in 2017 in 0-2 counts vs the league average

That’s really not good. It’s also the worst Miley has ever done in those situations throughout his career. Is some of it luck based? Possibly. The sample size is obviously pretty small, and Miley’s BABIP in those situations is decidedly on the wrong side of the luck scale. At the same time, Miley hasn’t been doing himself any favors either. The figure below shows the location of his pitches against right-handed batters and left-handed batters in 0-2 counts.

As you can see, there are some pitches that catch way too much of the plate. At the same time, Miley is all over the place. And that’s really been one of the main reasons for Miley’s struggles in the 2017 season overall. It’s difficult to be effective if you’re walking nearly 13% of the batters you face. Major League hitters are really good. And if you don’t have the stuff to get swinging strikes, you need to do a good job locating your pitches, even when you’re ahead in the count 0-2. Miley did not locate his pitches well in 2017*, and that hurt him even if he had the batter at a huge advantage.

I realize that this post isn’t probably what most people would want to read about the first day after the end of a disappointing season, and if you’ve made it this far, then congratulations. Since it appears that Wade Miley will not be back in Baltimore for the 2018 season, so you can probably just file this post under either the “depressing, yet somewhat interesting” or “who cares, the season is over” folder. Regardless of Miley’s status with the team next year (or lack thereof), the Orioles can begin to look forward to the 2018 season, which (I’ll repeat), is going to be exciting.

*To his credit, Miley located the fastball almost exactly where Welington Castillo asked for it in the Longoria plate appearance.

Trade Retrospective: Wade Miley vs. Ariel Miranda

When Wade Miley was acquired at the non-waiver trade deadline in 2016 for Ariel Miranda, there was legitimate reason to believe the Orioles had not dramatically improved their pitching situation. Miley had not posted an ERA under 4.34 since 2013 and was mired in, frankly, a poor season in Seattle. Miranda, on the other hand, had progressed quickly through the Orioles' farm system after coming over from the Cuban leagues and had put up solid, if unspectacular, numbers at every level. As we know, Miley has been (to be charitable) a low grade tire fire as an Oriole while Miranda has quietly been pretty decent in Seattle, despite a certain blogger arguing that Miley had figured things out in April and May.

It seems to be yet another ill-fated deadline move made by General Manager Dan Duquette, whose history at the non-waiver deadline has been checkered during his time in Baltimore. He infamously traded Jake Arrieta and Pedro Strop for Scott Feldman, dealt away Zach Davies (who has become a relatively decent back-end starter himself) for two months of Gerardo Parra posting a .671 OPS, and got 20 lights-out innings from Andrew Miller in exchange for top pitching prospect Eduardo Rodriguez. This is... not amazing, to say the least. His overall best deal was probably getting Bud Norris for LJ Hoes and Josh Hader in 2013, though Hader is off to a decent start to his career in Milwaukee and Norris had an epic, $8 million meltdown in 2015 after a solid 2014. 

But was this move as bad as it seems? If you go by straight results, the answer is an unequivocal "yes, good lord, yes." Miranda has put up a 4.16 ERA to go along with a 1.145 WHIP for the Mariners, while Miley has countered with a ghastly 5.79 ERA and 1.733 WHIP during his time in Baltimore. If you could do a straight-up swap of those numbers, it wouldn't be hard to imagine that the Orioles would feel significantly better about their 4th starter slot right about now.

Of course, a straight swap is unrealistic for any number of reasons, but most notably that Baltimore and Seattle are not exactly the same in terms of being run environments. Historically, Camden Yards has been a hitter's haven (say that five times fast) while Safeco Field has been more forgiving to pitchers. This may explain the differences in xFIP between the two: Miley has put up an acceptable 4.66 xFIP this year, with Miranda posting a 5.33. 

xFIP grants pitchers a league average home run rate, arguing that year-to-year fluctuations are essentially noise, and in Miley's case this may be accurate. Before coming to Baltimore, Miley was pretty good at limiting home runs. This year, however, Miley has one of the worst HR/9 marks in baseball at 1.43. So, we've solved it! Miley went to Baltimore and gives up a ton of homers, while Miranda got to go to a better park and gives up fewer homers. Done and done.

While that's a convenient narrative, it turns out to perhaps not be so simple. Miranda has somehow been worse than Miley this season, with a shocking 1.73 HR/9 rate. So how is Miranda even above water this season? Well, for one thing, he does a good job of limiting hard contact and having pretty good command. He gives up homers, to be sure, but he doesn't put a ton of baserunners on which limits the overall damage. Miley, on the other hand, is more like Oprah: "you have a walk, and you have a walk!" Wade is walking an almost unfathomable 5.4 hitters per game, which is both far and away the highest in baseball this year and the worst mark of his career. So, Miley lets guys get on base all the time while also allowing lots of homers. That is not a recipe for success. On the other hand, Miley has a better than league average strikeout rate while Miranda prefers to pitch to contact.

So, did Duquette screw up? Yes, but not necessarily because Miranda is actually a much better pitcher than Miley. I think the numbers indicate that, while Miley has better peripheral stats without question, it may be the case that those stats do not tell the whole story. Miranda is, ironically, a guy that seems to have the ability to outperform his peripherals while Miley does not. Miranda would actually fit in perfectly with the O's overall philosophy of "we literally do not care about ERA estimators," while Miley's stat sheet on Fangraphs indicates that he is an okay pitcher getting unlucky. Watching him pitch this year, however, throws about 500 gallons of cold water on that theory. Additionally, Miley consistently underperforms his peripherals and, really, does nothing particularly well other than generating ground balls. So, it's not that Miranda is so much better, it's that Miley is bad, has been bad for a while, and has gotten worse since the Orioles traded for him.

In the case of Miley vs. Miranda, we find in favor of (drum roll)....getting better pitchers! But seriously, folks, those pining for the Miranda who got away probably wouldn't be much happier if he was still here and Miley was not, though he also doesn't cost $10 million. Miranda probably wouldn't be a sub-4.50 ERA guy in Baltimore, but there's also nothing that necessarily indicates he'd be a plus-5.50 guy, either. Miley, unfortunately, is. That's reason enough to say that this deal isn't something Duquette should lead with in his next job interview.

As Wade Miley Falls into the Abyss, Should O's Should Let Him Go?

At the halfway point, the Orioles were in a fix for starting pitching.  Feel free to copy that onto your clipboard for any retrospective application to the Duquette dynasty, a bit before, and likely into the perceptible future.  The Orioles always have seemed to be in a bit of a quandary when it comes to the rotation.  Even in 2014, the first half's rotation was a bit squirrelly with collective memory bronzing the dominant second half collective sub-2.50 performance delivered by Chris Tillman, Miguel Gonzalez, and Wei-Yin Chen.  Gausman and Norris back filled sun-4.00 ERAs as well.  Those indeed were the salad days.

Last year was not that.  Last year saw some struggle.  Of course, those struggles look pretty cheerful now with a rotation that is currently the worst in franchise history.  Anyway, the club spent all of July looking for another starting pitcher and wound up looking at Wade Miley.  It would be the second "proven veteran" for "journeyman minor leaguer" the Orioles and Mariners arranged for the 2016 season.  The first one sent Twitter aficionado and Arrieta trade return Steve Clevenger for 1B/DH/?RF? Mark Trumbo.  That one worked out pretty well for the Orioles.  This second one with aged Cuban prospect Ariel Miranda for better-on-paper Wade Miley has been much more uneven.

Better-on-paper is a good way to describe Wade Miley.  He gets ground balls, he strikes out batters, and allows few walks.  However, what the Red Sox and Mariners found out was that he also tends to have problems elevating his pitches.  It could make him homer prone at times.  Also, the recent trend to try to uppercut pitches is not as well spread a thing as the media would have you believe, but it is enough of a trend to drastically impact pitchers who heavily really on sinking action.  A pitcher like Wade Miley, who employs heavily a good but not great sinker, is often presenting a pitch on the same plane as a batter who is trying to uppercut the ball.  His career home runs per fly ball norm of around 10% jump to 16% last year and now sits at 20% this year.  League norm is around 10%.  This has been somewhat devastating to Miley.

In turn, it has made Miley more skittish around the plate.  Longer innings and longer fly balls have turned into a sky rocketing walk rate.  In part, this walk rate has been negatively impacted by Welington Castillo's pitch framing butchery, but that does not seem to explain all of it.  Regardless, the home run rate and walk rate have sputtered a solid, if unspectacular, four slot pitcher into a fringey more back end arm.

This October, the Orioles will be staring at a choice.  Should they pick up Miley's option for a final year at 12 MM or should they pay him 500k to depart.  Miley appears to be a degrading commodity.  Two heavy analytical groups (Boston and Seattle) quickly gave up on an arm typically appreciated by more analytical types.  I wondered what exactly would my BORAS model think of Miley now.  Last year, the BORAS model once again nailed pitching contracts (though, admittedly it was terrible at position players unlike previous seasons where the model did well for both).  Last year, the model saw Miley as a 3/36 player if he was on the free agent pile last year.  Now? It pegs him as a 2/16 player.

What I want to use BORAS for though is to compare what pitchers are similar to the 11.5 MM cost of Miley and also who does BORAS consider similar to Miley's 8 MM projection.  First, BORAS thought no one would see a one year contract above 7.1 MM (Francisco Liriano).  To expand that to two years just to have some names to throw around: CC Sabathia (11.1 MM), Scott Feldman (10.7 MM), and Clayton Richard (10 MM).  Those three are older pitchers, who have performed about average recently.  Does it make sense to lock in a second year for one of those pitchers at the same cost?  I would argue no.  I think Miley is just as likely to put up a 2 WAR season as any of those guys, especially Feldman or Richard.

So what level of performance does BORAS think Miley is at?  Similar pitchers would be Yovani Gallardo (2/14), Tyson Ross (2/13), Liriano (7.1), and Hector Santiago (2/11).  All of these pitchers fit the same mold, two years ago they were pretty decent.  They are the inverse of Feldman and Richard.  And this is where the conversation gets interesting.  Is Miley worth a 3 MM premium on his services or do you role the dice on two lesser projected arm like Brett Anderson (1/6), Derek Holland (1/5), Miguel Gonzalez (1/6) or Chris Tillman (1/5.5).

In the end, my considerations are this: Miley is a one year contract for a player who is healthy, has shown an uncharacteristic walk rate, and whose alternatives are not clear improvements or represent big savings.  Two rough seasons in a row is not a good look.  It is concerning.  However, this club has few options in the starting rotation.  Sinking in similar money for a long contract FA option like Marco Estrada (3/34) or Andrew Cashner (3/38) seems to be poorer options.  Going with Mike Wright or Tyler Wilson also seems to be inadvisable.

So, picking up Wade Miley's option looks like the best of poor options.  He is young.  He has pitched well before.  It is only a one year endeavor at this point and looks similar to the 1/10.5 contract the Rangers inked Cashner to before this season.  Those attributes might push Miley up to a similar deal given how thin starting pitching options are almost every year.


Below are the current BORAS contract projections (7/18):

	Age	Yr	Total
Yu Darvish	31	6	118
Jason Vargas	35	4	80
Jake Arrieta	32	3	45
Alex Cobb	30	4	53
Lance Lynn	31	3	42
Jaime Garcia	31	3	42
Trevor Cahill	30	3	47
Tyler Chatwood	28	4	57
Andrew Cashner	31	3	38
Marco Estrada	34	3	35
CC Sabathia	37	2	25
Scott Feldman	35	2	22
Clayton Richard	34	2	22
Jhoulys Chacin	30	3	28
Jeremy Hellickson	31	3	31
Yovani Gallardo	32	2	14
Wade Miley	31	2	16
Tyson Ross	31	2	13
Francisco Liriano	34	1	7
Hector Santiago	30	2	11
Miguel Gonzalez	34	1	6
Brett Anderson	30	1	6
Derek Holland	31	1	5
Chris Tillman	30	1	6

Why McDowell?

Every year, the pure genius of Seinfeld slips further and further from the beating pulse of popular culture.  The once-iconic sitcom is in the danger zone of being relegated to Andy Griffith-status, for those 25 and under.  

Sure, the scenery and technology may not have aged well, but the simple genius driving Larry David's program about nothing still kills it, for those who are willing to dive back into a world of beepers, it brought us gems like this.

The man with the mustache is, of course, the unforgettable Keith Hernandez.  And, in the “flashback”, that is Roger McDowell: the real spitter *spoiler alert*.  And, yes, that is the same McDowell who currently presides over the burning garbage of the Baltimore Orioles’ pitching staff. 

Right now, poor McDowell must feel that he’s trapped on the barge of some hellish sitcom, awaiting cancellation. 

In the latest episode, Wade Miley starred as “shellacked individual number four."  It took him 67 1.2 innings pitched, with 7 hits, 2 walks and 7 earned runs on just 67 pitches.  All that was missing was the canned laughter. 

It takes a special kind of efficiency to achieve such rotten results in such a short period of time.  Anyone who can read the back of Miley’s baseball card knows that such dastardly deeds are his specialty.

Sure, every now and then, he’ll pull a gem from the clutches of his rear end.  Those who believe those short bursts of success to be anything more than a sun-kissed mirage have been drinking too much of Dan Duquette’s kool-aid. 

The Orioles have just weathered a horrific month of June.  The ineptitude included an AL-record, 20-straight games allowing five or more runs.

The carnage totaled 186 runs allowed.  The last time a Baltimore pitching staff allowed that many enemy runners to cross the plate was during George W.’s second term.  In September 2007, Daniel Cabrera and company allowed an astounding 202 runs. 

Before that, you had to go all the way back to June 1987 (186 runs allowed) to find a month so horrid. 

I stopped my runs research there.  After all, there’s something uncomfortably-morbid about poking around these stats – like reading bar tab statements of an alcoholic.

On the bright side, while the ‘87 Orioles went 5-23 in that month, their 2017 counterparts went 12-16, so it could be worse, right?

Moral victories won’t do much to save McDowell’s job, however, should the losses continue to mount.  Baltimore, under Buck Showalter’s direction, has certainly not been reticent to make changes at pitching coach.  In fact, McDowell is the sixth man to assume that responsibility since Showalter took over. 

Fair or not, hitting and pitching coaches usually get the ax when a club is under-performing.  And, under-performing they are.  The most troubling piece of evidence against retaining McDowell’s services is that the talent atop the rotation continues to take deep strides backwards. 

Here are Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy’s 2016 numbers held up against those from the current season:

2016

Gausman: 8.7 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 3.77 XFIP

Bundy: 8.53 K/9, 3.45 BB/9, 4.61 XFIP

2017

Gausman: 7.3 K/9, 4.16 BB/9, 5.03 XFIP

Bundy: 6.99 K/9, 2.88 BB/9, 5.22 XFIP

Bundy has cut his walks, but is allowing fly-balls (and home runs) at a much higher rate.  Whether this season’s problems have been mechanical or mental in nature, they don’t seem to be improving. 

Barring a miraculous turnaround, it is likely the Orioles will push the reset button yet again, this winter – if not sooner.  It wouldn’t be unwarranted; his Baltimore body of work is far from inspiring. 

Still, on days like Monday, you can’t help but feel for the guy.  

Top 5 Orioles Trade Chips

Thanks to some home runs and good relief pitching, the Orioles pulled out a one-run win last night to get back to .500. Close wins are still wins, and it's too early to completely write off the O's.

Still, the 2017 season has gone south for the Orioles in a major way. If they were just losing a bunch of close games, that would be one thing. That's not the case, though, as both injuries and poor play across the board have resulted in the O's currently looking up at three teams in the American League East. Additionally, the Orioles now have a run differential of -56, which is second worst in the American League and fifth worst in all of baseball. The Orioles have some serious problems, and some of them are not fixable.

Any rational-minded O's fan knew this squad had a limited window to compete, and it very well may have slammed shut. We will find out soon whether the Orioles can stay within striking distance of the playoff race, and they'll come to a crossroads on how to proceed with this group of players. It'll either be time to push major decisions on players like Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, and Zach Britton to the offseason, or to meet this organization's problems head-on and see what the Orioles can really acquire at the trade deadline by dangling some of their best players.

Let's note two things first. First, I do not expect the Orioles to trade Machado or Schoop this season. Maybe falling way out of the race would change that, but I'd still be stunned. I also do not think ownership will pony up the cash required to keep a superstar talent like Machado, but you could certainly argue they shouldn't do that anyway. There aren't many players like Machado out there, but there also aren't many mid- or small-market clubs who could pay an enormous amount of money to Machado while also paying a huge chunk of change (though less enormous than Machado) to Chris Davis and still be able to put the requisite pieces around them. Doing something like that would require a lot of young, cheap talent, which the Orioles don't have right now.

Second, you can't ignore the contract situations of Dan Duquette and Buck Showalter. Their deals both expire after 2018. Do you really want Duquette orchestrating a tear-down if he's not going to be here soon? And if you jettison Duquette, what about Showalter? An incoming general manager would probably want to pick his own manager, though the Orioles don't really work that way (Showalter was already in place as manager when Duquette was hired as executive vice president of baseball operations). Perhaps the Orioles would just promote from within anyway (obligatory Brady Anderson mention). Would Showalter be fine with that and does he still want to manage; or is he more interested in a front office role? These are all important questions, and I fully expect the Orioles to punt on them until the offseason.

If the Orioles were to be fully active in the trade market, though, how would their trade chips rank? Many of them don't look as good as they did before the season, but let's take a look at the top five:

1. Manny Machado
Jon's value approximation: $42M (based on 1.5 years, 8 projected WAR, $22M in salary)
Potential trade partner: Astros
Potential price: A lot
Potential deal: Machado for Alex Bregman, Francis Martes, Franklin Perez, Forrest Whitley, and Colin Moran

Machado isn't hitting up to his abilities (last night's two-homer, 4-4 game was a good sign, though), but there's no doubting his talent. He's an elite defensive third baseman, an above-average defender at shortstop if a team wants to use him there, and his offensive struggles will only last for so long. Machado would be a game-changer for any team looking for a significant upgrade for the rest of this season. That team could keep him through 2018, his last year of arbitration, or flip him in the offseason.

In all likelihood, the O's won't be able to keep Machado in Baltimore, and while dealing Machado would be difficult to stomach, it could also be a way to replenish a farm system in serious need of top-level talent. Players like Machado don't become available often, and the price to acquire him would and should be enormous.

2. Jonathan Schoop
Jon's value approximation: $36M (based on 2.5 years, 6 projected WAR, $20M in salary)
Potential trade partner: Unclear
Potential price: Top 25-50 pitcher and B-level hitter or 50-100 hitter and 50-100 pitcher

Britton probably would have gone here a few months ago, except he now has a forearm injury that's caused two trips to the disabled list this season. The Orioles and Britton have taken a more patient approach this time after an earlier setback, and he very well may be fine and look like the Britton of old when he is scheduled to return in a couple weeks. But that injury cloud matters, and maybe the O's couldn't get as much as they'd like.

Meanwhile, there's Schoop, who seems to have taken a much-needed step forward offensively. He's walking more than ever, chasing less often, and being much more selective. Because of Machado's struggles, Schoop has arguably been the team's best position player so far.

One the one hand, Schoop is 25 and a homegrown talent, and you'd like to keep those guys around (especially when they're showing promise). On the other hand, the Orioles, as if often the case, did not lock Schoop up to any kind of team-friendly extension. He has two arbitration-eligible years left, making him a free agent in 2020. He's going to get more expensive in 2018 and 2019, and there's no guarantee he sticks around beyond that.

On top of that, he may need to move off of second base soon. There's no doubting the strength of Schoop's arm, but his range may be becoming an issue. Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating both have him as a far below average defender this year, and there have been more than a handful of groundballs that have bounced off his glove or escaped his reach that a second baseman with average range would have gobbled up.

If the Orioles aren't going to explore an extension, then it's time to start thinking about what he could bring back in a trade.

3. Zach Britton
Jon's value approximation: $12M (based on 1.5 years, 4 projected WAR, $20M in salary)
Potential trade partner: Rangers
Potential price: An A-level (25-75) and B-level player
Potential deal: Britton for Yohander Mendez and Brett Martin

There is not much to add here. When healthy, Britton is simply one of the best relief pitchers in all of baseball. But that healthy part is key, and he will need to get through his current rehab assignment and come back and demonstrate that he is still that same dominant force. If he does that, teams will come calling.

4. Brad Brach
Jon's value approximation: $17M (based on 1.5 years, 3 projected WAR, $7M in salary)
Potential trade partner: Rangers
Potential price: A-level (50-100) and B-level hitter
Potential deal: Brach for Andy Ibanez and Brett Martin

Even though he's more affordable than Britton, Brach comes in below the lefty closer because he doesn't have the same ceiling. If you want the best, you want Britton. If you want someone who's still very good when he's not being overworked (and can fill in at closer some, if needed), then Brach is more than a worthy alternative.

Brach has rebounded nicely after a shaky couple of weeks, and he's showing that although he's probably not as good as last year (2.05 ERA, 2.92 FIP in 79 innings), he's still a very good late-game relief option (currently, 2.67 ERA, 3.32 FIP in 30 1/3 innings).

5. Mychal Givens
Jon's value approximation: $36M (based on 4.5 years, 7 projected WAR, $20M in salary)
Potential trade partner: Rangers
Potential price: A-level (50-100) and B-level hitter
Potential deal: Givens for Andy Ibanez and Brett Martin

Givens's inclusion in the top five completes the troika of relievers after Machado and Schoop. Like Brach, Givens is a solid but not amazing reliever, plus he has the benefit of being under team control for several more seasons. Unlike Brach, Givens does have platoon concerns that are at least worth mentioning. Because of his extra value, Givens could net a similar return to Brach or maybe even more depending on the team, but he's probably just a notch below him and doesn't have the same kind of upside. (Also, in case you can't tell, Jon thinks the Rangers will add a reliever or two.)

Players Who Should Go

Welington Castillo

Castillo is having a nice season for the O's at the plate (105 wRC+), and he hasn't been terrible in terms of pitch framing either (Baseball Prospectus has him at -1.6 with its framing runs metric). Still, with a $7 million player option (essentially an opt-out even though the Orioles would never offer an opt-out), Castillo can choose whether he becomes a free agent after the season. The Orioles also have Chance Sisco in Triple-A Norfolk waiting in the wings for catching work, and Caleb Joseph is a serviceable backup option. It wouldn't be the worst thing for Castillo to return, but the O's don't need him and should get what they can (maybe a B-level pitcher and C+ hitter).

Wade Miley

Like Castillo, Miley has a 2018 option as well; his, though, is a team option for $12 million (with a $500K buyout). Miley has been the team's second-best starter, though that's no great feat considering Chris Tillman, Kevin Gausman, and Ubaldo Jimenez have ERAs over 6. Miley isn't the worst pitching option to have around, even for $12 million, but if the O's can move him for a B-level pitcher and C+ level hitter, they should take that offer.

Seth Smith
Hyun Soo Kim

Let's just lump these two together. They're both left-handed platoon bats in the corner outfield, and they're both scheduled to be free agents after the year. Together, they could bring back a couple of B-level pitchers and C+ level hitters.

Bad Timing Or Little Value

Adam Jones

Do you really want to see the Orioles trade Jones? I'm not sure that I do. However, that might not matter anyway; Jones can reject any deal because he has 10-and-5 rights (given to major leaguers with 10 years of service time who have played the last five consecutive years with the same team).

Jones is also not the same player. At this stage in his career, he's basically in the 90-100 wRC+ range with defensive abilities in center field that rate somewhere between average and below average. That's not awful for an up-the-middle position, but the final two years of his contract don't provide much of a bargain (the rest of $16 million this year and $17 million next season). Jones's contract extension was a great move for the team, but the surplus value from it has already been received. Now they're dealing with the rest of it, and it's not clear what the next step is.

Kevin Gausman

Arguably no player has had a more underwhelming couple of months than Gausman. Instead of helping to anchor the staff with Dylan Bundy, Gausman has been dreadful. Following a promising season - his first with a full workload (30 starts) - he has a 6.60 ERA and 5.50 FIP in 75 innings. His strikeouts are down, and his walks and home runs allowed are up. Gausman just can't shake his pre-Cubs Jake Arrieta impression, and some fans are tired of it and ready to cut bait.

What type of return could he fetch? Perhaps a 50-100 hitter and 50-100 pitcher, though, in the moment, that seems like a lot. Maybe that works for you. Gausman seems too talented to be this terrible, but he wouldn't be the first player to meet that qualification. There's no guarantee he'll improve, but he still seems like a hold.

Chris Tillman
Ubaldo Jimenez

Let's get this over with quickly. Tillman has been horrible, doesn't seem fully recovered from a shoulder injury that forced him to miss the start of the season, and is a free agent after this season. Unless he goes on some sort of miraculous run, he has next to no trade value.

Even though Jimenez had a nice start in his undeserved return to the O's rotation, he also barely has any trade value. The O's have been trying to unload his contract for years, and maybe the only reason why they'd be able to do so now is because his deal expires after the year. On any team with even the bare minimum of pitching depth, Jimenez would have been designated for assignment long ago. But, remember, this is Birdland.

Jon Shepherd contributed values and potential landing spots to this article.

Wade Miley's Weird Year

Wade Miley, pitcher for the Baltimore Orioles, has been simultaneously the best and worst version of Wade Miley, pitcher in the Major Leagues. In 2016 for Baltimore, Miley put up an ERA over 6, had the worst HR/FB ratio of his career, ran a .389 BABIP against, and stranded just 64% of baserunners. He also had a career best K/9, an above average walk rate, and the best GB/FB rate of his career. These are weird numbers. Even weirder, however, is Miley's 2017, which has seen the best ERA, highest ground ball rate, lowest BABIP, worst walk rate, best strand rate, and the most soft contact he's ever given up. These things don't really go together, and they also don't really line up with what Miley had done in previous stops in his Major League career.

So, while it's obvious that Miley's 2017 has been a bit of a mirage so far, it's not necessarily obvious why. Though his LOB% is (stop me if you've heard this one before) unsustainable, his insane walk rate is so far above his career norm that a positive regression there seems quite likely. He's not giving up a lot of homers, he's pitching deep into games, and he's striking out a decent number of batters. Still, his FIP and xFIP are at least a run and a half higher than his ERA, and his projections for the rest of the season regress him back to his career norms or worse.

What accounts for his career best start, then? For one thing, he's generating a lot of soft contact and infield fly balls. For another, he's getting a huge number of grounders. Miley is 8th in all of baseball in generating grounders and has utilized his slider more effectively than most seasons in his career. These clearly go hand-in-hand, and while we can't assume that this success will continue it is certainly conceivable that Miley has simply improved his slider. He's throwing it a bit more than he has in his career, but it's not as though he's changed his repertoire considerably. Indeed, if you look at pretty much any of his pitch and swing rate stats, you won't see a huge difference from his career norms.

So, yeah, he's been weird. It doesn't seem as though there is any one explanation, and it's very counter-intuitive to think that a guy who is walking nearly 5 batters per 9 has somehow improved as a pitcher. That said, it is possible that Miley has simply changed his approach. Below we can see his pitch location frequency for his career and for 2017, and it is immediately clear that he is living down in the zone far more this season than he has in the past.

Since he is throwing the ball down and out of the strike zone much more often this year, that will necessarily lead to more called balls and more walks. But it may also explain his big uptick in ground balls and could indicate that regression is not necessarily inevitable. If Miley has really changed the way he is pitching, as opposed to changing his pitch selection, then perhaps this year isn't so weird.

Well, no, it's still weird, but weird in a potentially explainable way. Certainly, we can expect that his ERA will tick up as he fails to strand runners at this crazy rate, but I'm somewhat skeptical that he will just suddenly collapse. His ability to keep the ball down in the zone and maximize grounders and soft contact this season may be a legitimate shift for him. If so, maybe this is the new, best version of Wade Miley.

Wade Miley's Winning Combo: Great Command And Great Framing

Russell Martin is many things — a Canadian, a three-true-outcomes hitter, a strong defender — but above all else, he's an excellent judge of pitch location. Since 2007, the first year of PITCHf/x data, Martin has swung at 20.3 percent of pitches outside the strike zone, ranking 27th among 567 qualified hitters. (For what it's worth, he's also swung at 59.2 percent of pitches inside the strike zone, which is 124th in that sample.) Maybe it's because he plays behind the plate, or maybe it's just an innate talent; whatever the reason, he can usually tell the difference between balls and strikes.

We can understand, then, why he got a little miffed here:



With the Jays trailing the O's 5-3 in the sixth inning, Martin worked the count to 2-2 against Wade Miley. The left-hander uncorked a sinker that fell right on the edge of the PITCHf/x-defined strike zone, and though Martin checked his swing, Brian Knight rung him up. It was the eighth strikeout of the night for Miley, continuing an unforeseen run of dominance from the Orioles starter.

Heading into the year, most of us didn't expect much from Miley. FanGraphs' Depth Charts projected the southpaw to put up a 4.48 ERA and 4.34 FIP over 169.0 innings — the marks of a wholly uninspiring, mid- to back-of-the-rotation arm. Yet over his first three starts, Miley has earned a sterling 1.89 ERA and 3.15 FIP. While his walk rate (11.1) is elevated and his ground ball rate (48.7 percent) is in line with his career average, he's struck out 33.3 percent of opposing hitters. Even in this young season, that ranks fourth in the majors.

But wait. Looking at his PITCHf/x plate discipline metrics, we don't see much improvement from past years. If anything, Miley has performed worse in 2017:

Year(s)	O-Swing%	Z-Swing%	Swing%	Contact%	SwStr%	Zone%
2011-16	30.7%	63.5%	45.4%	81.0%	8.6%	44.8%
2017	31.3%	66.7%	45.7%	81.2%	8.6%	40.7 %

Miley's whiff rate hasn't budged from past years, and he has the unsavory combination of fewer pitches in the zone and more swings in the zone. How, then, has he fanned a third of the batters he's faced?

Well, aside from fortuitous sequencing — which is to say, luck — Miley's accumulated a lot more strikes than you'd expect, based on his zone and O-Swing rates. The trend has affected each of his starts:

Start	Pitches	Strikes	xStrikes
4/9	100	56	51
4/14	101	66	61
4/20	101	70	67
Total	302	192	179

xStrikes = Pitches * (1 - (1 - O-Swing%) * (1 - Zone%))

Getting those extra calls has given Miley an above-average strike rate (63.6 percent) and looking-strike rate (28.1 percent). That's made him a power pitcher, of sorts, and resulted in a lot of weird looks like the one Martin showed above.

So does Miley stand any chance any chance of keeping this up? Or will his greatness fade away, like so many other early-season success stories? (Remember April 2016 MVP Joey Rickard?) He probably won't have a higher strikeout rate than Max Scherzer by the end of the year, but Miley has a couple of factors working in his favor.

Baseball Prospectus debuted a metric called CSAA in February, which isolates a pitcher's ability to get called strikes as a proxy for his command. I'll let BP explain the details:

A pitcher with good command should be more predictable for the catcher—their pitches often end up in the locations, and with the movement that the catcher expects. This skill results in easier receiving for catchers, and additional called strikes for the pitcher. Once we aggregate the data cross thousands of pitches, CSAA is able to tell us whether a pitcher is reliably hitting his spots.

By this metric, Miley's always excelled. This year, though, he's taken things to another level:

As of this writing, Miley's 4.59 percent CSAA ranks third in the majors, trailing fellow left-handers (and past Cy Young winners) Dallas Keuchel and Clayton Kershaw. For whatever reason — maybe he's better with his sinker, which he's used more often this year — Miley's command has taken a huge leap forward in 2017, and his strikeout rate has spiked in turn.

But command, I'd argue, is not the most significant variable at play. As noted, Miley's command is nothing new (albeit not to this extent), yet he's never overperformed his expected strike rate like this. The bigger factor in his 2017 success seems to be the second half of the called-strike tandem — the man behind the plate.

While the Orioles brought in Welington Castillo and his lead glove to start at catcher, he hasn't manned the position every day. Caleb Joseph has gotten the nod four times this season — on April 9, 14, 20, and 22. If you've been checking the dates in that table above, you'll notice something: Joseph has caught all 19.0 innings Miley has thrown in 2017. Needless to say, it's shown.

In case you went into a coma during the mid-aughts to avoid another miserable year of Orioles baseball and just woke up, I'll fill you in on the secret around Baltimore: That Caleb Joseph fella? He's pretty good at framing. This year, he's posted a .029 CSAA, the highest in the majors. Since his 2014 debut, he's saved the Orioles 27.1 runs in less than 2,000 innings.

Miley certainly appreciates what Joseph has done for him, as he explained to PressBoxOnline's Rich Dubroff:

"Not to knock at Welington. I've thrown to him. He's outstanding as well," Miley said. "Something about Caleb from spring training. I don't know what it was. I know he works hard back there for me. We've got a good thing going right now. 

"As a pitcher, you've got a catcher back there working really hard for you, and you see that. You kind of build off of that, build off the energy you see him giving, and you go from there."

Whether "works hard" is just boilerplate athlete talk or a subtle nod to Joseph's framing prowess/dig at Castillo's framing ineptitude, we'll never know for sure.

Earlier in that piece, Buck Showalter swears there's nothing to the Miley/Joseph pairing, and that he doesn't believe in the idea of personal catchers. If Castillo catches Miley more often, it'll certainly put a dent in his numbers; still, it shouldn't sink him entirely. Joseph has worked with some pitchers more than others — last year, he caught a large chunk of Ubaldo Jimenez's innings, more so than any other Orioles regular:

Pitcher	Joseph Innings	Innings	Joseph%
Kevin Gausman	27.0	179.2	15.0%
Chris Tillman	23.2	172.0	13.8%
Ubaldo Jimenez	57.2	142.1	40.5%
Yovani Gallardo	25.0	117.1	21.2%
Dylan Bundy	32.0	109.2	29.2%

Some catchers seem to have a rapport with a given pitcher (or are just better at catching), and while Showalter understandably doesn't want to disrupt his schedule to accommodate that, he'll tweak things so guys like Jimenez and Miley can throw a few more innings to their backstop of choice. That helped Jimenez a couple of years ago, and it could work in Miley's favor this season.

As Martin and the Blue Jays have spiraled out of contention, the Orioles are, once again, flying high in April. No team in the American League has a better record than the Birds, and Miley has been the team's second-best starter to this point (can't knock Bundy, I'm afraid). His ERA won't remain below two for the entire season, or below three, but it's clear that he's not the 6.17-ERA starter we saw in the second half of 2016. Someone with command like this, who pitches to a catcher like Joseph, is bound to rack up strikeouts and keep runs off the board.

BORAS 2017 (Pitchers): If O's Starting Pitchers Were Free Agents...

Last week, I released the BORAS 2017 model for predicting the contracts of position players.  Today, here come the pitcher projections.  A theme holds, last year's very successful model is only tweaked slightly by the contracts signed last year (which makes sense because it was a successful model).  Another theme holds, no one seems to be worth all that much money.  A lingering feeling I have is that I think several teams are flush with cash and we may wind up seeing a great number of overpays similar to what we saw with NBA free agency last summer (of course, the lingering factor there was that star contracts were limited which allowed money to be thrown at mid-level guys.

Additionally, I decided to toss up what the model thinks of Orioles starting pitching because, after all, this is an Orioles site.  This is to give the local readership an idea of what the BORAS model thinks of the Orioles staff if they were free agents.

	Age	b2017	$	b2016	$
Brett Anderson	29	2	11.6	2	9.6
Andrew Cashner	30	2	17.7	2	18.9
Jhoulys Chacin	29	2	12.8	2	13.3
Jorge De La Rosa	36	1	8.1	1	7.4
Doug Fister	33	1	7.7	2	17.2
Jeremy Hellickson	30	3	44.0	4	58.1
Rich Hill	37	2	30.9	3	44.1
Mat Latos	29	2	14.3	2	14.5
Colby Lewis	37	1	9.7	1	8.3
Ivan Nova	30	3	32.4	3	30.6
Edinson Volquez	33	2	20.8	2	19.8
Minor League Invites
Bartolo Colon
RA Dickey
Jake Peavy
James Shields*
Orioles Rotation
Chris Tillman	29	4	63.7	5	76.2
Yovani Gallardo	31	2	18.5	2	15.6
Ubaldo Jimenez	33	2	23.0	2	20.5
Wade Miley	30	3	36.2	3	33.3

The difference in the modeling does not seem all that great.  Fister, Hellickson, and Hill all get an additional year, which actually makes sense to me.  The money all comes in about the same.  The Major League Invites are agreed on for each model, but I significantly doubt them.  Colon and Dickey are victims of age.  The BORAS model simply is geared to where we have a lot of data, so age impact is predicted largely by guys in their early to mid 30s.  It cannot fathom how these two can still be successful.  Peavy and Shields have age working against them slightly, but also have been mediocre to terrible recently.  Still, I think some team might dream on the past.  Well, not for Shields, he will not opt out.

I do think the projections above make sense for several pitchers, but are curious for a couple.  The first major exclamation mark is the thought that Mat Latos could get a two year deal.  That would be pretty shocking.  I also think Volquez is going to squeeze out a third year from someone.

Now, the shocker for many Orioles fans is how their guys stack up.  Tillman, according to BORAS, would be the jewel of the pitching offseason.  Last year's model wants to hand him a Wei-Yin Chen deal, while this years model wishes to be a little more conservative in years.  That is not all that amazing.

What is amazing is that Wade Miley is predicted as the third biggest free agent behind only Tillman and Hellickson.  Though, last year's model puts him fourth right behind Rich Hill.  Jimenez becomes the sixth most sought after starter.  Gallardo is the eighth or, for the 2016 model, ninth.  In other words, BORAS thinks the Orioles pitchers are somewhat desirable in this market.

With the Orioles currently in possession of a six man rotation, do these starters have value in trade?  Tillman obviously does in his last arbitration year looking at a 10+ MM deal.  Ignoring the 2.25 MM deferred, Jimenez makes 13.5 MM in 2017.  BORAS considers him a 11.5 MM pitcher.  That is on value with a little markup, which probably makes sense with only one year left on this deal while BORAS says he gets two.  I'd argue that this even value is worth a fringe B level prospect in a tight market like this.  Someone like D.J. Stewart.

Yovani Gallardo?  Gallardo is basically due 11 MM this year with a 2 MM buyout to avoid a 13 MM 2018.  In other words, the Orioles have a 1/13 deal with a 1/11 option.  BORAS sees him as a 2/18.5 commodity.  It is an overpay, but does not appear to be an exceptional overpay.  My best guess is that Gallardo is worth a low ceiling third level prospect.  Someone like Parker Bridwell.

Wade Miley? Wade Miley effectively has a 1/9.25 deal with a team option at 11.5 MM.  BORAS has him at 3/36.  This is a situation where BORAS thinks the Orioles probably have a surplus value of about five million.  Add in this market and that value might be pushed up to 10 MM or so.  If a team thinks like BORAS does, then Miley is worth a high level B prospect or a solid starting option in, lets say, right field.

If we assume that BORAS knows anything, then we would likely try to spin off Gallardo or Jimenez, take the minor prospect and use that cash for other holes.  If we think that BORAS is overvaluing Miley and someone else might too, then that would be a great area to bring back something of consequence without much of a cash outlay.

Wade Miley Is Not Giving The Orioles What They Need

The Orioles hoped they were, at the very least, getting an unremarkable but adequate starting pitcher when they acquired Wade Miley from the Mariners at the non-waiver trade deadline. They parted with fellow southpaw Ariel Miranda to get the deal done, which certainly wasn't a high price but was something.

The hope was that Miley, as the team's lone left-handed starter, would be serviceable. Passable, average, sufficient, all right, not bad, decent, fine, OK -- any of those would have sufficed. Instead, it would be difficult for the trade to look any worse right now. After eight starts in an O's uniform, Miley's numbers are amazingly bad. He's thrown about 35 innings, and he has an ERA of 8.41. That's not what the Orioles want; that's not what any team wants.

Of course, Miley isn't this bad. Few pitchers are. Besides the home run numbers (1.5 HR/9 with a HR/FB rate of 20%), Miley's peripherals suggest he's been unfortunate. His strikeouts and walk rates are fine, and he has a 4.81 FIP and an xFIP (which assumes a league average home run rate) of 3.99. And like Ubaldo Jimenez early in the season, BABIP has not been Miley's friend. With the Orioles, Miley has a BABIP of .409. His career mark is .307.

Regardless, you probably don't care what Miley's numbers should look like when the O's are clinging to that second wild card slot. And it's hardly unreasonable to expect better than what they've received from Miley.

Miley's stretch seems particularly terrible, even when comparing his performance against some of the underwhelming pitchers the Orioles have employed the last decade or two. So I went to the Baseball-Reference Play Index to investigate. I wondered which pitchers had so many consecutive terrible outings in a row to start their Orioles' career. The Orioles have had a lot of bad pitchers, and Miley is doing his best to join them.

I searched for consecutive pitching outings in O's history with the following criteria: at least one inning pitched, at least two earned runs allowed, and at least seven baserunners allowed (for starters only). And Miley is quickly working his way up the list. Miley has amassed eight such outings in a row (Baseball-Reference hasn't updated yet this morning), tied for seventh in this group with some names you've heard before (Garrett Olson, Pat Rapp, Wayne Garland) and a couple that maybe you haven't (Bill Trotter, Joe Giard). The leaders of this group are Jason Johnson and Julio Bonetti, at 16 straight games. Carl Fischer had 10 such outings, followed by Jose Mesa, Erv Palica, and Don Larsen (all with nine).

That set of criteria, it's worth noting, doesn't necessarily lead to all negative results. Giving up two runs in five or six innings while limiting the damage is not ideal, but it's not terrible, either. You probably need some luck and/or a good defense behind you. And Miley has not been lucky (and if you watched the beginning of last night's game against the Red Sox, the O's defense did him no favors).

Considering Miley's BABIP and high home run rate, you'd figure some positive results are on the horizon. It's hard for any pitcher to sustain an ERA over 8 over this many starts. But at this point, there isn't really a whole lot the Orioles can do. Because of the wear and tear on Chris Tillman, the high workload of Dylan Bundy, and the uncertainty of Yovani Gallardo and Jimenez, the O's best course of action may be to proceed with their flawed collection of six starters.

Fortunately for the O's, after the season, Miley... oh, right. He's under contract next year for about $9 million. That's more than a fair price for an average starting pitcher, so perhaps that figure won't look so bad in a couple months. It would be tough, though, for it to look much worse.

Ariel Miranda Wasn't Going to Help the Orioles

Joe Reisel's Archives

Many Orioles fans were disappointed when the only deadline-day acquisition the Orioles made to improve their pitching staff was Wade Miley, a well-traveled pitcher often described as a durable innings-eater. Despite Dylan Bundy's recent outstanding performances, it's still believed that the Orioles needed another pitcher good enough to start a post-season game, and Miley really isn't that. Acquiring Miley is reminiscent of the Scott Feldman acquisition of 2013, for whom (and Steve Clevenger) the Orioles traded Jake Arrieta (and Pedro Strop). To get Miley, the Orioles traded Ariel Miranda, a left-handed starting pitcher and a Cuban émigré who signed with the Orioles in May 2015.

Before the 2016 season, Baseball America rated Miranda as the 23rd-best prospect in the Orioles' organization. He pitched 70 innings in 14 2015 starts, mostly with Advanced-A Frederick and AA Bowie. After some early-season fiddling with their minor-league rosters, the Orioles assigned Miranda to AAA Norfolk on April 11 and he's been in the Tides' rotation ever since.

How good a prospect is Ariel Miranda, really? How likely is it that the Orioles will regret trading him the way they might be regretting trading Josh Hader, Zach Davies, or Arrieta? Or is he more like Xavier Avery, L.J. Hoes, or Nick Delmonico, other prospects the Orioles traded for veterans? I scored, either as the BAM datacaster or for Baseball Info Solutions, five of Miranda's starts and may have some insights.

First, it's important to remember that Miranda, at age 27, is only two years and two months younger than Miley. That doesn't mean that Miranda can't be a good pitcher or that he's not a prospect, but it does mean that he's probably physically mature.

What struck me most about Miranda was his delivery. He has a twisty, whip-like delivery with a higher leg kick than most pitchers; he reminded me of Dontrelle Willis. I can't prove it, but I believe that pitchers with high leg kicks are more affected by age; as they age, they're less able to maintain their balance during their delivery.

Here are Miranda's pitching lines for the five games I've scored:

Date	Opp.	BFP	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	Dec.
4/11	CHA	22	4.2	6	1	1	2	6	ND
4/23	DUR	17	4.1	2	0	0	2	6	ND
6/18	DUR	23	7	1	0	0	1	9	ND
7/8	SYR	28	6.2	5	2	2	2	1	ND
7/23	TOL	26	5.2	8	3	3	2	6	W

It's clear that I've seen Miranda at his best. In these five games, his ERA is 1.91; overall, his Norfolk ERA was 3.93. His strikeout-to-walk ratio in these games was 3.11; overall, 2.81. His strikeouts-per-nine-inning ratio in these games was 8.89; overall, 7.78. While on the surface his performance in these games may suggest that he can be a good pitcher, the details reveal something that suggest that he wouldn't be effective in Camden Yards.

The below table shows the total number of ground balls, fly balls, line drives, walks and strikeouts Miranda induced. The batted-ball totals include hits, errors, and outs, and so are more complete than the data in the official statistics. Also, there is a discrepancy between these results and the above lines because of hit batsmen.

Ground Balls	28
Fly Balls	35
Line Drives	13
Walks	9
Strikeouts	28

Even pitching well, Miranda has fly-ball tendencies. That works well in Norfolk's Harbor Park, which has a large center-field area and is at a low altitude, but won't work well in Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Because of this, I don't think Miranda would have been effective pitching at Camden Yards, and consequently would not have been effective as an Oriole. Because of that, and because of Miranda's relatively advanced age, I don't think the Orioles will regret trading him.