17 October 2016

BORAS 2017 (Pitchers): If O's Starting Pitchers Were Free Agents...

Last week, I released the BORAS 2017 model for predicting the contracts of position players.  Today, here come the pitcher projections.  A theme holds, last year's very successful model is only tweaked slightly by the contracts signed last year (which makes sense because it was a successful model).  Another theme holds, no one seems to be worth all that much money.  A lingering feeling I have is that I think several teams are flush with cash and we may wind up seeing a great number of overpays similar to what we saw with NBA free agency last summer (of course, the lingering factor there was that star contracts were limited which allowed money to be thrown at mid-level guys.

Additionally, I decided to toss up what the model thinks of Orioles starting pitching because, after all, this is an Orioles site.  This is to give the local readership an idea of what the BORAS model thinks of the Orioles staff if they were free agents.

Brett Anderson 29 2 11.6 2 9.6
Andrew Cashner 30 2 17.7 2 18.9
Jhoulys Chacin 29 2 12.8 2 13.3
Jorge De La Rosa 36 1 8.1 1 7.4
Doug Fister 33 1 7.7 2 17.2
Jeremy Hellickson 30 3 44.0 4 58.1
Rich Hill 37 2 30.9 3 44.1
Mat Latos 29 2 14.3 2 14.5
Colby Lewis 37 1 9.7 1 8.3
Ivan Nova 30 3 32.4 3 30.6
Edinson Volquez 33 2 20.8 2 19.8
Minor League Invites
Bartolo Colon
RA Dickey
Jake Peavy
James Shields*
Orioles Rotation
Chris Tillman 29 4 63.7 5 76.2
Yovani Gallardo 31 2 18.5 2 15.6
Ubaldo Jimenez 33 2 23.0 2 20.5
Wade Miley 30 3 36.2 3 33.3

The difference in the modeling does not seem all that great.  Fister, Hellickson, and Hill all get an additional year, which actually makes sense to me.  The money all comes in about the same.  The Major League Invites are agreed on for each model, but I significantly doubt them.  Colon and Dickey are victims of age.  The BORAS model simply is geared to where we have a lot of data, so age impact is predicted largely by guys in their early to mid 30s.  It cannot fathom how these two can still be successful.  Peavy and Shields have age working against them slightly, but also have been mediocre to terrible recently.  Still, I think some team might dream on the past.  Well, not for Shields, he will not opt out.

I do think the projections above make sense for several pitchers, but are curious for a couple.  The first major exclamation mark is the thought that Mat Latos could get a two year deal.  That would be pretty shocking.  I also think Volquez is going to squeeze out a third year from someone.

Now, the shocker for many Orioles fans is how their guys stack up.  Tillman, according to BORAS, would be the jewel of the pitching offseason.  Last year's model wants to hand him a Wei-Yin Chen deal, while this years model wishes to be a little more conservative in years.  That is not all that amazing.

What is amazing is that Wade Miley is predicted as the third biggest free agent behind only Tillman and Hellickson.  Though, last year's model puts him fourth right behind Rich Hill.  Jimenez becomes the sixth most sought after starter.  Gallardo is the eighth or, for the 2016 model, ninth.  In other words, BORAS thinks the Orioles pitchers are somewhat desirable in this market.

With the Orioles currently in possession of a six man rotation, do these starters have value in trade?  Tillman obviously does in his last arbitration year looking at a 10+ MM deal.  Ignoring the 2.25 MM deferred, Jimenez makes 13.5 MM in 2017.  BORAS considers him a 11.5 MM pitcher.  That is on value with a little markup, which probably makes sense with only one year left on this deal while BORAS says he gets two.  I'd argue that this even value is worth a fringe B level prospect in a tight market like this.  Someone like D.J. Stewart.

Yovani Gallardo?  Gallardo is basically due 11 MM this year with a 2 MM buyout to avoid a 13 MM 2018.  In other words, the Orioles have a 1/13 deal with a 1/11 option.  BORAS sees him as a 2/18.5 commodity.  It is an overpay, but does not appear to be an exceptional overpay.  My best guess is that Gallardo is worth a low ceiling third level prospect.  Someone like Parker Bridwell.

Wade Miley? Wade Miley effectively has a 1/9.25 deal with a team option at 11.5 MM.  BORAS has him at 3/36.  This is a situation where BORAS thinks the Orioles probably have a surplus value of about five million.  Add in this market and that value might be pushed up to 10 MM or so.  If a team thinks like BORAS does, then Miley is worth a high level B prospect or a solid starting option in, lets say, right field.

If we assume that BORAS knows anything, then we would likely try to spin off Gallardo or Jimenez, take the minor prospect and use that cash for other holes.  If we think that BORAS is overvaluing Miley and someone else might too, then that would be a great area to bring back something of consequence without much of a cash outlay.

1 comment:

Roger said...

I swear if we could get something, anything, for Gallardo then we should do it. Someone else might believe that he can avoid the injury bug next year. Getting rid of the salary and bringing back a warm body would make this team better. I think we should keep Miley and Jimenez. Both have potential for rebounds. With five starters and Wilson/Wright as swingmen, the O's could get by and be better than 2016. More development from Gausman and a full year of starter Bundy along with Miley is a real improvement. With Hart, Givens, Brach, O'Day, and Britton in short relief, there's not much space left on the pitching staff even without Gallardo. Plus, Tommy Milone just got cut by the Twins and would be a good Worley-type pickup cheap. As bad as that FA class looks, someone's got to want to take a shot at Gallardo.