Before the offseason even started, you could see it coming. Chris Davis was the team's top priority, and the Orioles (with Peter Angelos leading the charge) did everything to ensure his return. They should be commended for that, regardless of whether you think they spent too much money to bring him back. It was likely Davis or no other top free agent, and that does matter.
Still, the Orioles were not going to be able to take care of everything on their shopping list. And to be fair, that is usually the case. The Orioles don't spend enough as a mid-market team to go out and replenish their roster when players depart, and they combine that with having a disappointing farm system that is one of the worst in the majors. That makes it difficult to fill a well-rounded roster with cheap, cost-controlled players. (The Orioles have also had good teams recently, and while that's a positive, they've both dealt away some of their better prospects and dealt with injuries and haven't been able to restock their system.)
The O's have been active this offseason. They re-signed Davis and fought off the Nationals to keep Darren O'Day. They rightly extended the qualifying offer to Matt Wieters, who somewhat surprisingly accepted. They traded for Mark Trumbo and signed Hyun Soo Kim. And they've made a boatload of fringe roster moves in an effort to strike gold with one or two players. But that doesn't seem like enough. After those moves, the O's still may be the worst team in the American League East. And even if they aren't, they don't seem to be more than marginally better than any other team. Realistically, no flurry of moves would have done all that much to alter things. It's not like the Orioles were going to sign David Price, Zack Greinke, or Jason Heyward. They need to get better at developing players, in a hurry.
That brings us back to the apparent flaws of the current roster. The team's corner outfield options - Kim, Nolan Reimold, Dariel Alvarez, Joey Rickard, Henry Urrutia - leave a lot to be desired. Kim is a nice, low-risk signing, but he's unproven in the majors and can't be considered a sure thing. Trumbo needs to be included in that mix, but he's clearly a better option at designated hitter or to spell Davis at first base. Davis could also shift to right field some, but that's probably not what the Orioles have in mind after signing him for so much money. An actual corner outfielder, preferably one who is left-handed, would be a nice addition.
And then there's the starting rotation. Chris Tillman, Kevin Gausman, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Miguel Gonzalez are all locks to start the season in the rotation. That's hardly an inspiring group. Tillman was awful last season; Gausman has showed promise but the Orioles have refused to commit to keeping him in the major league rotation until now; Jimenez was improved last season but is hardly dependable; and Gonzalez finally buckled under the pressure of outpitching his FIP (and, you know, also dealt with elbow and shoulder injuries).
That's without mentioning the upcoming, riveting battle for fifth starter duties between Vance Worley, Mike Wright, and Tyler Wilson. Names such as Mat Latos, Kyle Lohse, Tim Lincecum, Aaron Harang, Alfredo Simon, and even Jeremy Guthrie and other AAAA starters are still out there. Maybe it's best to pursue that route and hope for the best. Or maybe the Orioles will make a trade.
There are still some talented players available on the free agent market, but some are tied to draft pick compensation (including Yovani Gallardo and Dexter Fowler). The Orioles seem set on holding on to their first-round draft pick. That probably has more to do with the money not being there for such signings; after all, the Orioles forfeited two draft picks to sign Ubaldo Jimenez and Nelson Cruz just a couple years ago. And it's not like the Orioles hoard their draft picks anyway.
Right now, it seems pretty foolish that the O's weren't willing to be more flexible to sign Scott Kazmir. Not only was he not tied to draft pick compensation, but he would have filled the left-handed starter void left by Wei-Yin Chen. It's unclear whether the O's were scared off more by Kazmir's injury history or his pursuit of a contract with an opt-out, but he would have been a nice signing -- and could have been considered the team's best starting pitcher.
Teams want more good players. The Orioles aren't any different. Without much to fall back on in the minors, the O's don't have much room for error. They again need a Nate McLouth or Steve Pearce type player to surface, or at least get Miguel Gonzalez to pitch like he did from 2012-2014 or get J.J. Hardy or Tillman to somewhat return to form. (Buck Showalter has acknowledged as much, particularly about his starting pitchers, in some of his comments.) Those types of performances shouldn't be taken for granted, especially when the O's need them as much as they do. Maybe it doesn't lead to exciting offseasons, but the O's again seem like a .500 team that with the right push could again be in the playoff hunt. That's the best-case scenario for this team. The worst case? Maybe you should take a look at that rotation again.
Showing posts with label Wei-Yin Chen. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Wei-Yin Chen. Show all posts
03 February 2016
12 January 2016
The Money Is There. Where Is It?
As we settle into the final stages of free agent acquisition, the market begins to stabilize. First of all, several top tier talents remain available. To be elite and available in January is not an unusual thing. Ask Max Scherzer or Prince Fielder. However, to have as many perceived elite talents out there for hire is indeed unusual. According to STEAMER, Chris Davis, Howie Kendrick, Yoenis Cespedes, Justin Upton, Wei-Yin Chen, and Ian Kennedy are all present and stand to be worth more than two wins for 2016. Six players stand to make about 18 MM apiece (a total of 108 MM for 2016). That is a great deal of talent to change the outlook of the league without mentioning mid-range talents like Ian Desmond, Yovani Gallardo, and others. In all, STEAMER project 54.4 loose wins remaining, a value of about 380 MM. Complicating the matter is that many teams in search of talent have spent a great deal of money, which might have caused the market to constrict significantly.
Of course, available talent though does not equal available money. If there are 12 apples whose intrinsic value is a dollar while only six dollars are available in the market, then those apples will likely sell for less than they are worth. We do not know how much money each franchise has, but we can guess. To arrive at a reasonable answer for this, payrolls from 2013, 2014, and 2015 were assessed for change over time. This change could then be used to estimate what might be the overall pool of money available for 2016. Estimated current total payroll for 2016 is $3,747,200, which is a 1.01% increase over last year. Should we expect more?
Using the generic 8.52% increase over 2015 payroll marks might help us understand who exactly is in play for major talent. To note, this is generic because we are not considering whether 2015 was an abnormality in excess or under payment. Additionally, we do not know if resources are being redirected for immediate play or to support future franchises fortunes. Off the bat though, we have several teams that appear to be out of the game: Toronto (13.5 MM above 2015 + 8.52% payroll), Cleveland (22.5 MM), Angels (24 MM), Oakland 13.4 MM), Arizona (28.5 MM), Chicago (37.9 MM), St. Louis (4.1 MM), and New York Mets (1.3 MM). These eight teams seem, at a glance, out of the running for any of the top-tier talent.
What are the team needs of the 22 other clubs based on STEAMER projections?
(x denotes minor need as defined by 25th to 50th percentile; X denotes major need as defined by 1st to 25th percentile):
The data provided by STEAMER is slightly dated. For instance, it is difficult to portray Washington as having a great need in center field when they have just acquired Ben Revere. However, the data is nearly up to date and gives us a good indication of roughly where clubs are at the moment (as of Alex Gordon's re-signing).
First Base
The Orioles offered Chris Davis 7/154, BORAS model projected 5/110, and the Comp model thinks 5/91 makes sense. Regardless, he is a near 20 MM first baseman (even though the actual Boras is trying to sell him as an outfield option). Teams with great need at first base include Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Houston, Colorado, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Miami. Of those, it is difficult to see Tampa or Pittsburgh putting out the money from a payroll perspective. Meanwhile, entrenched veterans exist in Minnesota (Joe Mauer), Milwaukee (the newly signed Chris Carter), and Philadelphia (Ryan Howard with Darin Ruf and Maikel Franco making future noise). This leaves us with Houston and Miami as the most sensible destinations. A team that really values Davis, like the Orioles, seemingly has pretty much these two clubs as primary competitors. My guess is that Houston would be reluctant to meet Baltimore's price and may well be waiting on the Orioles to make a move elsewhere and then swoop in with a low offer to Davis. Houston right now looks weak only at catcher and first base, so Davis makes a great deal of sense. Miami? Who knows? They could have something up their sleeve. That said, Miami also has weakness at catcher, shortstop, and starting pitcher. As it stands, Miami likely only has payroll to acquire one elite player.
Likely Destinations: Baltimore, Houston, Miami
Second Base
The second base market has been a bit quiet since Ben Zobrist signed, and Howie Kendrick is Mr. Incognito. A solid second baseman, but someone who has not been heard of much this offseason. Based on the clubs with cash and STEAMER, the weakest clubs appear to be Baltimore, Kansas City, Colorado, San Diego, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, and Atlanta. That hurts for Kendrick. Baltimore appears to be quite happy to see how Jonathan Schoop develops. Kansas City has fringe options in Omar Infante and Christian Colon and appears to be largely disinterested in the infield market. They could be a landing place for a one-year bid. Colorado has larger troubles and appears content with D.J. LeMahieu to continue on. San Diego could be a spot when the dust clears. They have a number of weaknesses and should be looking at player to fall off to the floor. Milwaukee likes Scooter Gennett, the Phillies are in no place to compete and are working with Cesar Hernandez, and the Braves likewise have too many holes and a promising 2B in Jace Peterson. With all of that said, it looks like the Royals and, moreso, the Padres are the two openings. Both appear to be one-year deal scenarios, but the Padres could commit longer.
Likely Destinations: Kansas City, San Diego
Corner Outfield
The big paydays predicted for Yoenis Cespedes and Justin Upton have lost some of their shininess. The list here is not exactly as long as one might think: Baltimore, Chicago (AL), Detroit, San Diego, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, and Atlanta. To mention previous points, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, and Atlanta appear to be dedicated to rebuilding and signing a player descending from peak value seems doubtful. If there is cash to burn, there is an extreme scenario where one of these clubs signs a Qualifying Offer player, hands over a second-round pick as their first-round picks are protected, and either moves up with a compensation pick or deals said player at the trade deadline. A move up in draft selection looks like a waste of money spent, but a deal for prospects could help jump-start the rebuild a little and make it worth sinking 10 MM for half a season.
More realistically, these two players will wind up in Baltimore, Chicago (AL), Detroit, or San Diego. After San Diego pushed their budget far, plopping down 20 MM for one of these guys might be too much, too soon. They have not been attached in the papers with an elite free agent, so it might well be that they are in the sub-15 MM market (such as Ian Desmond). For the others, they have each been mentioned in passing with either/both Cespedes and Upton. Baltimore may find themselves in a situation where it is difficult to choose because they could finalize deals with Cespedes, Upton, or Davis and only have Houston, Chicago (AL), and Detroit as primary competition. Perhaps Baltimore is the domino. It makes sense now that Alex Gordon re-signed with Kansas City because this market could wind up looking bad for someone.
Likely Destinations: Baltimore, Chicago (AL), Detroit
Starting Pitching
This is another area where the market is not as great as it might appear for Wei-Yin Chen and Ian Kennedy. Of course, it always seems like an unknown team will launch themselves into the void to secure a stronger pitching rotation (again see Max Scherzer), but how often might that happen? As it stands, we have Baltimore, Kansas City, Detroit, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Miami. It is hard to see Milwaukee, Philadelphia, or Atlanta stepping into this negotiation. As they are all in rebuilding mode, starting pitchers tend to be poor options for those clubs. Starting pitchers primarily provide value their first season (~90% give more than 100 IP), but break down in the years following (~50% give more than 100 IP in year two or three or etc. afterward).
As it stands, Baltimore, Kansas City, Detroit, and Miami are the primary players one might think based on the above methodology. We know Baltimore is in the market and has been circling Gallardo. Ian Kennedy makes a great deal of sense for them as well, but it makes one wonder if they can fit two 20 MM players on their roster. Kansas City appears to have pieced together a rotation, but would like to push Danny Duffy or Kris Medlen to a sixth starter role. It is questionable whether they are planning on any more splurges after Gordon. Detroit and Miami are options. Detroit is being pushed in a few ways, but I doubt they want anyone significant after signing Jordan Zimmermann. That leaves Miami who has been the most noticeable in their quest to secure Chen.
Likely Destinations: Baltimore, Miami
Slightly Informed Projections
So where will everyone go? My choice yet is for everyone to find a need that meets their interests. Here we go.
Chris Davis, Houston Astros
The Astros have one big need and that is first base. This fit seems to make a great deal of sense and might well happen. Davis has been a major target of Peter Angelos, but after a while someone saying no to 154 MM gets frustrating.
Howie Kendrick, San Diego Padres
I do not know whether this would be a one-year deal (which I think would make more teams interested) or a multi-year deal. One might think ownership would be concerned after devoting so much money to older players last offseason.
Yoenis Cespedes, Baltimore Orioles
Justin Upton makes more sense for the Orioles with his youth, but his youth makes it likely a player option or two would be involved. Those things apparently make Dan Duquette mad. Cespedes is old enough where opt outs stop making as much sense. Cespedes also has a much better arm and range than Upton, fitting in more with the Orioles' defensive goals. The Orioles may also like that Cespedes will not cost them a draft pick for signing him.
Justin Upton, Chicago White Sox
While there has been no mention of Upton to the White Sox, this seems to make sense once Baltimore settles in on Cespedes. The White Sox are probably more willing to offer a player option. Detroit, in my opinion, will rest on their laurels as their payroll is nearing luxury tax levels.
Wei-Yin Chen, Miami Marlins
The Marlins have cash, have been highly associated with Chen, and he seems to be a great fit for them. I would also assume that Chen, who lives outside the United States, would not be all that bothered if Miami went and traded him elsewhere after a couple seasons.
Ian Kennedy, Kansas City Royals
This scenario has the Royals coming in unexpectedly to beef up their rotation with a short-term deal for Kennedy. If Orioles secure Upton over Cespedes, then I think they will be more willing to let go of a second-round pick to ink Kennedy to a deal in a similar vein to Ubaldo Jimenez'.
At the end of the day, a lot can happen. The Yankees may think they need to tighten up right field. Boston might determine they can spin some players around and get a proven left fielder. Rangers ownership could do a 180 on their stance about not significantly raising payroll. Regardless, all of these should be answered in the next four weeks.
Of course, available talent though does not equal available money. If there are 12 apples whose intrinsic value is a dollar while only six dollars are available in the market, then those apples will likely sell for less than they are worth. We do not know how much money each franchise has, but we can guess. To arrive at a reasonable answer for this, payrolls from 2013, 2014, and 2015 were assessed for change over time. This change could then be used to estimate what might be the overall pool of money available for 2016. Estimated current total payroll for 2016 is $3,747,200, which is a 1.01% increase over last year. Should we expect more?
If that 8.52% increase happens, then we have about 280 MM in open spending available. With overall talent at 380 MM, it looks like it might shape up to be an incredible buyer's market, which was something we thought Dan Duquette would be angling for this offseason. Also, the rumors about players considering one-year deals, punting a season, and then resetting for the 2016/17 offseason make a bit more sense. It must have someone like Chris Davis thinking twice about rejecting the 7/154 offer he had on the table or why he is refusing that offer if it is indeed still there.
Payroll % 2013 3150500 2014 3396200 7.80% 2015 3709800 9.23% p2016 4025875 8.52%
Using the generic 8.52% increase over 2015 payroll marks might help us understand who exactly is in play for major talent. To note, this is generic because we are not considering whether 2015 was an abnormality in excess or under payment. Additionally, we do not know if resources are being redirected for immediate play or to support future franchises fortunes. Off the bat though, we have several teams that appear to be out of the game: Toronto (13.5 MM above 2015 + 8.52% payroll), Cleveland (22.5 MM), Angels (24 MM), Oakland 13.4 MM), Arizona (28.5 MM), Chicago (37.9 MM), St. Louis (4.1 MM), and New York Mets (1.3 MM). These eight teams seem, at a glance, out of the running for any of the top-tier talent.
What are the team needs of the 22 other clubs based on STEAMER projections?
(x denotes minor need as defined by 25th to 50th percentile; X denotes major need as defined by 1st to 25th percentile):
| Team | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | S | LF | CF | RF | SP |
| NYY | x | ||||||||
| Baltimore | x | X | x | X | X | X | |||
| Tampa | X | X | x | ||||||
| Boston | x | x | x | ||||||
| Kansas City | X | X | x | X | |||||
| Twins | x | X | x | x | x | x | x | ||
| Chicago AL | x | X | X | x | X | ||||
| Detroit | x | X | x | X | X | X | |||
| Texas | x | x | x | X | |||||
| Houston | X | X | x | x | |||||
| Seattle | x | x | x | X | |||||
| Colorado | x | X | X | x | x | X | x | x | |
| San Diego | x | x | X | X | X | X | X | x | |
| San Francisco | x | ||||||||
| LAD | x | ||||||||
| Cincinatti | x | x | x | X | x | X | x | ||
| Milwaukee | X | X | X | x | x | X | |||
| Pittsburgh | X | X | |||||||
| Philadelphia | X | X | X | x | X | X | X | X | |
| Atlanta | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | |
| Miami | X | X | x | X | X | ||||
| Washington | x | x | X |
The data provided by STEAMER is slightly dated. For instance, it is difficult to portray Washington as having a great need in center field when they have just acquired Ben Revere. However, the data is nearly up to date and gives us a good indication of roughly where clubs are at the moment (as of Alex Gordon's re-signing).
First Base
The Orioles offered Chris Davis 7/154, BORAS model projected 5/110, and the Comp model thinks 5/91 makes sense. Regardless, he is a near 20 MM first baseman (even though the actual Boras is trying to sell him as an outfield option). Teams with great need at first base include Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Houston, Colorado, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Miami. Of those, it is difficult to see Tampa or Pittsburgh putting out the money from a payroll perspective. Meanwhile, entrenched veterans exist in Minnesota (Joe Mauer), Milwaukee (the newly signed Chris Carter), and Philadelphia (Ryan Howard with Darin Ruf and Maikel Franco making future noise). This leaves us with Houston and Miami as the most sensible destinations. A team that really values Davis, like the Orioles, seemingly has pretty much these two clubs as primary competitors. My guess is that Houston would be reluctant to meet Baltimore's price and may well be waiting on the Orioles to make a move elsewhere and then swoop in with a low offer to Davis. Houston right now looks weak only at catcher and first base, so Davis makes a great deal of sense. Miami? Who knows? They could have something up their sleeve. That said, Miami also has weakness at catcher, shortstop, and starting pitcher. As it stands, Miami likely only has payroll to acquire one elite player.
Likely Destinations: Baltimore, Houston, Miami
Second Base
The second base market has been a bit quiet since Ben Zobrist signed, and Howie Kendrick is Mr. Incognito. A solid second baseman, but someone who has not been heard of much this offseason. Based on the clubs with cash and STEAMER, the weakest clubs appear to be Baltimore, Kansas City, Colorado, San Diego, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, and Atlanta. That hurts for Kendrick. Baltimore appears to be quite happy to see how Jonathan Schoop develops. Kansas City has fringe options in Omar Infante and Christian Colon and appears to be largely disinterested in the infield market. They could be a landing place for a one-year bid. Colorado has larger troubles and appears content with D.J. LeMahieu to continue on. San Diego could be a spot when the dust clears. They have a number of weaknesses and should be looking at player to fall off to the floor. Milwaukee likes Scooter Gennett, the Phillies are in no place to compete and are working with Cesar Hernandez, and the Braves likewise have too many holes and a promising 2B in Jace Peterson. With all of that said, it looks like the Royals and, moreso, the Padres are the two openings. Both appear to be one-year deal scenarios, but the Padres could commit longer.
Likely Destinations: Kansas City, San Diego
Corner Outfield
The big paydays predicted for Yoenis Cespedes and Justin Upton have lost some of their shininess. The list here is not exactly as long as one might think: Baltimore, Chicago (AL), Detroit, San Diego, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, and Atlanta. To mention previous points, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, and Atlanta appear to be dedicated to rebuilding and signing a player descending from peak value seems doubtful. If there is cash to burn, there is an extreme scenario where one of these clubs signs a Qualifying Offer player, hands over a second-round pick as their first-round picks are protected, and either moves up with a compensation pick or deals said player at the trade deadline. A move up in draft selection looks like a waste of money spent, but a deal for prospects could help jump-start the rebuild a little and make it worth sinking 10 MM for half a season.
More realistically, these two players will wind up in Baltimore, Chicago (AL), Detroit, or San Diego. After San Diego pushed their budget far, plopping down 20 MM for one of these guys might be too much, too soon. They have not been attached in the papers with an elite free agent, so it might well be that they are in the sub-15 MM market (such as Ian Desmond). For the others, they have each been mentioned in passing with either/both Cespedes and Upton. Baltimore may find themselves in a situation where it is difficult to choose because they could finalize deals with Cespedes, Upton, or Davis and only have Houston, Chicago (AL), and Detroit as primary competition. Perhaps Baltimore is the domino. It makes sense now that Alex Gordon re-signed with Kansas City because this market could wind up looking bad for someone.
Likely Destinations: Baltimore, Chicago (AL), Detroit
Starting Pitching
This is another area where the market is not as great as it might appear for Wei-Yin Chen and Ian Kennedy. Of course, it always seems like an unknown team will launch themselves into the void to secure a stronger pitching rotation (again see Max Scherzer), but how often might that happen? As it stands, we have Baltimore, Kansas City, Detroit, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Miami. It is hard to see Milwaukee, Philadelphia, or Atlanta stepping into this negotiation. As they are all in rebuilding mode, starting pitchers tend to be poor options for those clubs. Starting pitchers primarily provide value their first season (~90% give more than 100 IP), but break down in the years following (~50% give more than 100 IP in year two or three or etc. afterward).
As it stands, Baltimore, Kansas City, Detroit, and Miami are the primary players one might think based on the above methodology. We know Baltimore is in the market and has been circling Gallardo. Ian Kennedy makes a great deal of sense for them as well, but it makes one wonder if they can fit two 20 MM players on their roster. Kansas City appears to have pieced together a rotation, but would like to push Danny Duffy or Kris Medlen to a sixth starter role. It is questionable whether they are planning on any more splurges after Gordon. Detroit and Miami are options. Detroit is being pushed in a few ways, but I doubt they want anyone significant after signing Jordan Zimmermann. That leaves Miami who has been the most noticeable in their quest to secure Chen.
Likely Destinations: Baltimore, Miami
Slightly Informed Projections
So where will everyone go? My choice yet is for everyone to find a need that meets their interests. Here we go.
Chris Davis, Houston Astros
The Astros have one big need and that is first base. This fit seems to make a great deal of sense and might well happen. Davis has been a major target of Peter Angelos, but after a while someone saying no to 154 MM gets frustrating.
Howie Kendrick, San Diego Padres
I do not know whether this would be a one-year deal (which I think would make more teams interested) or a multi-year deal. One might think ownership would be concerned after devoting so much money to older players last offseason.
Yoenis Cespedes, Baltimore Orioles
Justin Upton makes more sense for the Orioles with his youth, but his youth makes it likely a player option or two would be involved. Those things apparently make Dan Duquette mad. Cespedes is old enough where opt outs stop making as much sense. Cespedes also has a much better arm and range than Upton, fitting in more with the Orioles' defensive goals. The Orioles may also like that Cespedes will not cost them a draft pick for signing him.
Justin Upton, Chicago White Sox
While there has been no mention of Upton to the White Sox, this seems to make sense once Baltimore settles in on Cespedes. The White Sox are probably more willing to offer a player option. Detroit, in my opinion, will rest on their laurels as their payroll is nearing luxury tax levels.
Wei-Yin Chen, Miami Marlins
The Marlins have cash, have been highly associated with Chen, and he seems to be a great fit for them. I would also assume that Chen, who lives outside the United States, would not be all that bothered if Miami went and traded him elsewhere after a couple seasons.
Ian Kennedy, Kansas City Royals
This scenario has the Royals coming in unexpectedly to beef up their rotation with a short-term deal for Kennedy. If Orioles secure Upton over Cespedes, then I think they will be more willing to let go of a second-round pick to ink Kennedy to a deal in a similar vein to Ubaldo Jimenez'.
At the end of the day, a lot can happen. The Yankees may think they need to tighten up right field. Boston might determine they can spin some players around and get a proven left fielder. Rangers ownership could do a 180 on their stance about not significantly raising payroll. Regardless, all of these should be answered in the next four weeks.
02 November 2015
Rumor Has It...2016 Orioles Edition: Qualifying Offers / Resignings
Click here for Jon Shepherd's archive.
This series considers briefly players who have been connected to the Orioles by the press.
Click here for previous Rumors posts.
For this post, we will briefly address each potential qualifying offer. We have before to some degree in our blueprint series, but here we will do it in the form chosen for other rumored connections to the club.
Chris Davis, 1B/CoOF/DH
Arbitration Eligible: No
Currently Under Contract: No
Qualifying Offer: Pretty much 100% certain
Projected Contract: 6 / 132 MM
Past Five Season
If there was one thing that should make Orioles fans warm in the heart for Andy MacPhail was his record in trades. Dealing out Koji Uehara and receiving Chris Davis and Tommy Hunter* was an amazing identification of talent. It was also a deal that was not entirely clear cut as some folks like me would have been far more interested in taking on high upside young prospects rather than a failed prospect and an older minor league power arm. Anyway, Davis' four years and change in an Orioles uniform has left him as the fourth highest bWAR 1B in Orioles history and a destined member of the Orioles Hall of Fame (note: Randy Milligan also needs to be voted in):
Even in Davis' worst years, you could make a decent argument that he was a league average first baseman. Perhaps some squinting is involved there for 2014, but he was not a negative value player. When you compare him to the available talent on the market this off season, it would be difficult to imagine any of them would surpass Davis. Justin Morneau could if healthy and if Davis has one of his more wretched seasons. I find that unlikely though.
For all these reasons, it makes sense to say that Chris Davis provides the best performance for a position of need for the Orioles: first base. Also helpful is that Davis has some ability to play corner outfield defense, which may enable Christian Walker or Trey Mancini to push up into Baltimore if they indeed prove that they are ready. However, I am reticent to off a significant deal to Chris Davis.
His next deal will carry him through age 35 at least. In general, that age is not worrisome. Davis will certainly be in a decline phase over the length of the contract, that is known. The question is whether or not Davis will age like the population in general. If so, you could expect another 13 WAR over those next six years, which comes to 91 MM in 2015 money. We would be looking at a 30 MM overpay, which likely is reasonable with inflation.
However, my concern is that Davis' game is shear power that is enabled by a hit tool that is barely sufficient. While power is unlikely to age poorly over the length of the contract, I think his contact tool could be unplayable by year five of the deal. While Davis on the squad would certainly be a help in 2016-2018, he stands a good chance to being a weakness on the club the second half of the deal and waste what might well be a very solid club led by Manny Machado. If I am spending big money on someone, I would want him to be in his mid-20s or to have him off the books by the end of 2018 or 2019.
Therefore, while I would place a Qualifying Offer on Davis, I would have little interest in discussing a contract without a reasonable buyout after four years. Davis will not and should not accept such terms.
Matt Wieters, C
Arbitration Eligible: No
Currently Under Contract: No
Qualifying Offer: Likely
Projected Contract: 4 / 52 MM
Past Five Seasons
Matt Wieters has been a lightning rod for attention since his rookie campaign in 2009. That season, PECOTA, powered by Davenport Translations that devised MLB equivalencies from MiL performance, suggested that Wieters was the second coming of Johnny Bench. That did not happen. Wieters never developed beyond a platoon bat with some contact issues. That kind of bat is a plus behind the plate, but not much more than that. His defense though was much better than expected. He is an average handler, but very solid blocking pitches in the dirt, getting runners out at the plate, and gunning down base runners (a skill that looked at worst average when he returned from his Tommy John surgery).
If one could magically wave away injury, he would be an easy consideration for a Qualifying Offer. His season in 2014 would have been worth around 3-4 WAR and last year would have been around 2-3 WAR. Those seasons would have put him into a discussion of about six years and 20 MM. With the injury, there is some concern, but a Tommy John surgery is not the worst thing and he did look decent behind the plate. If I was to mid to top tier payroll and in need of a catcher, I would consider going a full six years and 90 MM on him. I have him worth about 14 WAR over the next six years. If those injuries were knee, hip, back, or labrum related then I would be concerned. Worse comes to worst, then you have a player who is a somewhat expensive platoon DH and backup catcher. That is not the worst thing in the world.
As you can see below, Wieters has also put himself in position to be an eventual Orioles Hall of Famer like Davis. If he would resign with the club, he will likely become the highest performing catcher in Orioles History.
All that said, I would not offer Wieters anything beyond a Qualifying Offer. While I think he will be a bargain to any club that signs him, the team already has Caleb Joseph behind the plate. Joseph was left exposed in December 2013 for the Rule 5 draft and no one took him. He did not look smooth behind the plate with the club frantically playing him around the diamond to see if they could find a better fit. The bat played well enough in the minors, but a lack of walks made it appear unlikely that he would be able to succeed at higher levels.
When Wieters went down in 2014, Joseph was brought up. He hit poorly, but all of a sudden he looked good behind the plate when looking at his performance through Pitch f/x. With tools available to measure that skill, it became something you could definitively point to in order to show that he had value. Still, the club doubted him and traded for Nick Hundley. Joseph's bat has developed though and it appears to be at worst average for a catcher. His arm and blocking are sufficient, but his pitch framing has remained excellent. He is a 2 WAR catcher and is highly cost controlled as well as cost controlled in a way that arbitration hearings undervalue his skills.
As such, it makes little sense for the Orioles to try to sign Wieters, but it makes complete sense for the club to submit a Qualifying Offer.
Wei-Yin Chen, LHSP
Arbitration Eligible: No
Currently Under Contract: No
Qualifying Offer: Of course
Projected Contract: 4 / 56 MM
Fastball: 91 mph, Curveball: 73 mph, Slider: 83 mph, Changeup: 79 mph
Past Five Seasons:
In 2011, I was bullish on Chen. I thought at worst he was a solid late inning arm out of the pen and would be a lock down setup man. The likely role for him was as a back end rotation arm who I suggested a 2/10 contract. The Orioles wound up doing far better getting him 3/12 with a one year team option. Overall, they paid Chen 16 MM over four years for about 55 MM worth of value. I would argue that his signing was the most important signing of Duquette's time in Baltimore based on pure value. Second, that would be Nelson Cruz. Neither were expected to do what they wound up doing. After all, Tsuyoshi Wada was also signed with Chen and the Orioles decided against offering Cruz a two year deal.
Anyway, after four years, Chen finds himself as the franchise's eighth most valuable left handed pitcher. If he would resign with the club, he would wind up around Mike Cuellar or Steve Barber.
However, I would be cautious in resigning Chen. Although Chen dealt with nagging injuries in Japan, he largely has been injury free here in the States. However, it is clear that he does get fatigued. Combine that with his shoulder issues as a younger pitcher and I have concerns about whether or not he would maintain his current level of performance for the next four or five years. As a mid-level payroll club, paying full market value on Chen makes little sense to me. As such, I expect the club to offer the Qualifying Offer, Chen rejecting it, and Chen making back regardless. The Orioles will get a modest comp pick between the first and second rounds.
* The original document stated that Pedro Strop instead of Tommy Hunter was part of the Uehara deal. Strop was the PTBNL in the Mike Gonzalez deal.
This series considers briefly players who have been connected to the Orioles by the press.
Click here for previous Rumors posts.
For this post, we will briefly address each potential qualifying offer. We have before to some degree in our blueprint series, but here we will do it in the form chosen for other rumored connections to the club.
Chris Davis, 1B/CoOF/DH
Arbitration Eligible: No
Currently Under Contract: No
Qualifying Offer: Pretty much 100% certain
Projected Contract: 6 / 132 MM
Past Five Season
Year
| Age | PA | HR | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS+ | bWAR | fWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011
|
25
|
210
|
5
|
11
|
63
|
.266
|
.305
|
.402
|
89
|
-0.1
|
-0.5
|
2012
|
26
|
562
|
33
|
37
|
169
|
.270
|
.326
|
.501
|
121
|
1.6
|
2.1
|
2013
|
27
|
673
|
53
|
72
|
199
|
.286
|
.370
|
.634
|
168
|
6.5
|
7.0
|
2014
|
28
|
525
|
26
|
60
|
173
|
.196
|
.300
|
.404
|
96
|
1.8
|
0.8
|
2015
|
29
|
670
|
47
|
84
|
208
|
.262
|
.361
|
.562
|
146
|
5.2
|
5.6
|
8 Yrs
|
3512
|
203
|
323
|
1090
|
.255
|
.330
|
.506
|
122
| |||
If there was one thing that should make Orioles fans warm in the heart for Andy MacPhail was his record in trades. Dealing out Koji Uehara and receiving Chris Davis and Tommy Hunter* was an amazing identification of talent. It was also a deal that was not entirely clear cut as some folks like me would have been far more interested in taking on high upside young prospects rather than a failed prospect and an older minor league power arm. Anyway, Davis' four years and change in an Orioles uniform has left him as the fourth highest bWAR 1B in Orioles history and a destined member of the Orioles Hall of Fame (note: Randy Milligan also needs to be voted in):
Rk
| Player | bWAR/pos | From | To | G | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1
|
56.3
|
1977
|
1996
|
1884
|
343
|
.868
| |
2
|
35.4
|
1961
|
1974
|
1763
|
303
|
.826
| |
3
|
24.4
|
1994
|
2005
|
1000
|
223
|
.886
| |
4
|
15.1
|
2011
|
2015
|
617
|
161
|
.867
| |
5
|
14.8
|
1960
|
1963
|
583
|
124
|
.891
| |
6
|
11.1
|
1989
|
1992
|
511
|
59
|
.812
|
Even in Davis' worst years, you could make a decent argument that he was a league average first baseman. Perhaps some squinting is involved there for 2014, but he was not a negative value player. When you compare him to the available talent on the market this off season, it would be difficult to imagine any of them would surpass Davis. Justin Morneau could if healthy and if Davis has one of his more wretched seasons. I find that unlikely though.
For all these reasons, it makes sense to say that Chris Davis provides the best performance for a position of need for the Orioles: first base. Also helpful is that Davis has some ability to play corner outfield defense, which may enable Christian Walker or Trey Mancini to push up into Baltimore if they indeed prove that they are ready. However, I am reticent to off a significant deal to Chris Davis.
His next deal will carry him through age 35 at least. In general, that age is not worrisome. Davis will certainly be in a decline phase over the length of the contract, that is known. The question is whether or not Davis will age like the population in general. If so, you could expect another 13 WAR over those next six years, which comes to 91 MM in 2015 money. We would be looking at a 30 MM overpay, which likely is reasonable with inflation.
However, my concern is that Davis' game is shear power that is enabled by a hit tool that is barely sufficient. While power is unlikely to age poorly over the length of the contract, I think his contact tool could be unplayable by year five of the deal. While Davis on the squad would certainly be a help in 2016-2018, he stands a good chance to being a weakness on the club the second half of the deal and waste what might well be a very solid club led by Manny Machado. If I am spending big money on someone, I would want him to be in his mid-20s or to have him off the books by the end of 2018 or 2019.
Therefore, while I would place a Qualifying Offer on Davis, I would have little interest in discussing a contract without a reasonable buyout after four years. Davis will not and should not accept such terms.
Matt Wieters, C
Arbitration Eligible: No
Currently Under Contract: No
Qualifying Offer: Likely
Projected Contract: 4 / 52 MM
Past Five Seasons
| Year | Age | PA | HR | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS+ | bWAR | fWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 25 | 551 | 22 | 48 | 84 | .262 | .328 | .450 | 110 | 4.9 | 4.4 |
| 2012 | 26 | 593 | 23 | 60 | 112 | .249 | .329 | .435 | 107 | 3.5 | 3.9 |
| 2013 | 27 | 579 | 22 | 43 | 104 | .235 | .287 | .417 | 90 | 0.6 | 2.6 |
| 2014 | 28 | 112 | 5 | 6 | 19 | .308 | .339 | .500 | 132 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| 2015 | 29 | 282 | 8 | 21 | 67 | .267 | .319 | .422 | 100 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 7 Yrs | 3004 | 100 | 253 | 566 | .258 | .320 | .423 | 100 | |||
Matt Wieters has been a lightning rod for attention since his rookie campaign in 2009. That season, PECOTA, powered by Davenport Translations that devised MLB equivalencies from MiL performance, suggested that Wieters was the second coming of Johnny Bench. That did not happen. Wieters never developed beyond a platoon bat with some contact issues. That kind of bat is a plus behind the plate, but not much more than that. His defense though was much better than expected. He is an average handler, but very solid blocking pitches in the dirt, getting runners out at the plate, and gunning down base runners (a skill that looked at worst average when he returned from his Tommy John surgery).
If one could magically wave away injury, he would be an easy consideration for a Qualifying Offer. His season in 2014 would have been worth around 3-4 WAR and last year would have been around 2-3 WAR. Those seasons would have put him into a discussion of about six years and 20 MM. With the injury, there is some concern, but a Tommy John surgery is not the worst thing and he did look decent behind the plate. If I was to mid to top tier payroll and in need of a catcher, I would consider going a full six years and 90 MM on him. I have him worth about 14 WAR over the next six years. If those injuries were knee, hip, back, or labrum related then I would be concerned. Worse comes to worst, then you have a player who is a somewhat expensive platoon DH and backup catcher. That is not the worst thing in the world.
As you can see below, Wieters has also put himself in position to be an eventual Orioles Hall of Famer like Davis. If he would resign with the club, he will likely become the highest performing catcher in Orioles History.
Rk
| Player | WAR/pos | From | To | G | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1
|
23.4
|
1989
|
1998
|
894
|
151
|
.833
| |
2
|
21.3
|
1976
|
1992
|
1245
|
75
|
.674
| |
3
|
14.6
|
2009
|
2015
|
758
|
100
|
.743
| |
4
|
13.0
|
1955
|
1962
|
953
|
142
|
.751
| |
5
|
9.4
|
1962
|
1975
|
730
|
46
|
.652
|
All that said, I would not offer Wieters anything beyond a Qualifying Offer. While I think he will be a bargain to any club that signs him, the team already has Caleb Joseph behind the plate. Joseph was left exposed in December 2013 for the Rule 5 draft and no one took him. He did not look smooth behind the plate with the club frantically playing him around the diamond to see if they could find a better fit. The bat played well enough in the minors, but a lack of walks made it appear unlikely that he would be able to succeed at higher levels.
When Wieters went down in 2014, Joseph was brought up. He hit poorly, but all of a sudden he looked good behind the plate when looking at his performance through Pitch f/x. With tools available to measure that skill, it became something you could definitively point to in order to show that he had value. Still, the club doubted him and traded for Nick Hundley. Joseph's bat has developed though and it appears to be at worst average for a catcher. His arm and blocking are sufficient, but his pitch framing has remained excellent. He is a 2 WAR catcher and is highly cost controlled as well as cost controlled in a way that arbitration hearings undervalue his skills.
As such, it makes little sense for the Orioles to try to sign Wieters, but it makes complete sense for the club to submit a Qualifying Offer.
Wei-Yin Chen, LHSP
Arbitration Eligible: No
Currently Under Contract: No
Qualifying Offer: Of course
Projected Contract: 4 / 56 MM
Fastball: 91 mph, Curveball: 73 mph, Slider: 83 mph, Changeup: 79 mph
Past Five Seasons:
| Year | Age | Tm | W | L | ERA | FIP | IP | SO9 | BB9 | bWAR | fWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 25 | Chunichi | 8 | 10 | 2.68 | 164.2 | 5.1 | 1.7 | |||
| 2012 | 26 | Baltimore | 12 | 11 | 4.02 | 4.42 | 192.2 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.3 |
| 2013 | 27 | Baltimore | 7 | 7 | 4.07 | 4.04 | 137.0 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| 2014 | 28 | Baltimore | 16 | 6 | 3.54 | 3.89 | 185.2 | 6.6 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.5 |
| 2015 | 29 | Baltimore | 11 | 8 | 3.34 | 4.16 | 191.1 | 7.2 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 2.8 |
| MLB (4 seasons) | 46 | 32 | 3.72 | 4.14 | 706.2 | 1.2 | 2.2 | ||||
In 2011, I was bullish on Chen. I thought at worst he was a solid late inning arm out of the pen and would be a lock down setup man. The likely role for him was as a back end rotation arm who I suggested a 2/10 contract. The Orioles wound up doing far better getting him 3/12 with a one year team option. Overall, they paid Chen 16 MM over four years for about 55 MM worth of value. I would argue that his signing was the most important signing of Duquette's time in Baltimore based on pure value. Second, that would be Nelson Cruz. Neither were expected to do what they wound up doing. After all, Tsuyoshi Wada was also signed with Chen and the Orioles decided against offering Cruz a two year deal.
Anyway, after four years, Chen finds himself as the franchise's eighth most valuable left handed pitcher. If he would resign with the club, he would wind up around Mike Cuellar or Steve Barber.
| Rk | Player | bWAR | IP | ERA+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dave McNally | 25.7 | .616 | 2652.2 | 107 |
| 2 | Mike Flanagan | 21.8 | .549 | 2317.2 | 100 |
| 3 | Scott McGregor | 20.2 | .561 | 2140.2 | 98 |
| 4 | Mike Cuellar | 17.4 | .619 | 2028.1 | 109 |
| 5 | Steve Barber | 17.1 | .559 | 1414.2 | 115 |
| 6 | Erik Bedard | 12.9 | .541 | 658.0 | 118 |
| 7 | Billy O'Dell | 11.1 | .460 | 585.1 | 128 |
| 8 | Wei-Yin Chen | 10.1 | .590 | 706.2 | 110 |
| 9 | B.J. Ryan | 7.7 | .457 | 379.1 | 127 |
| 10 | Tippy Martinez | 7.5 | .565 | 752.1 | 112 |
However, I would be cautious in resigning Chen. Although Chen dealt with nagging injuries in Japan, he largely has been injury free here in the States. However, it is clear that he does get fatigued. Combine that with his shoulder issues as a younger pitcher and I have concerns about whether or not he would maintain his current level of performance for the next four or five years. As a mid-level payroll club, paying full market value on Chen makes little sense to me. As such, I expect the club to offer the Qualifying Offer, Chen rejecting it, and Chen making back regardless. The Orioles will get a modest comp pick between the first and second rounds.
* The original document stated that Pedro Strop instead of Tommy Hunter was part of the Uehara deal. Strop was the PTBNL in the Mike Gonzalez deal.
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