29 December 2015

Play Indexing: Yup, J.J. Hardy Was Bad In 2015

You know a big reason why J.J. Hardy was awful offensively last season. But it's still startling to see just how bad he was.

Hardy's batting line of .219/.253/.311 was among the worst shortstop seasons in the Expansion Era. And here's how Hardy's on-base percentage in particular ranked among players who played at least 75 percent of their games at shortstop and received at least 400 plate appearances since 1990:

Rk Player OBP PA Year Age Tm G BA SLG OPS
1 Alex Gonzalez .229 407 2000 23 FLA 109 .200 .319 .548
2 J.J. Hardy .253 437 2015 32 BAL 114 .219 .311 .564
3 Cesar Izturis .253 468 2002 22 LAD 135 .232 .303 .556
4 Jack Wilson .255 425 2001 23 PIT 108 .223 .295 .550
5 Juan Uribe .257 495 2006 27 CHW 132 .235 .441 .698
6 Alvaro Espinoza .258 472 1990 28 NYY 150 .224 .274 .532
7 Alfredo Griffin .258 502 1990 32 LAD 141 .210 .254 .512
8 Alcides Escobar .259 642 2013 26 KCR 158 .234 .300 .559
9 Angel Berroa .259 503 2006 28 KCR 132 .234 .333 .592
10 Khalil Greene .260 423 2008 28 SDP 105 .213 .339 .599
11 Cristian Guzman .260 492 2005 27 WSN 142 .219 .314 .574
12 Neifi Perez .260 585 2002 29 KCR 145 .236 .303 .564
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/29/2015.

You had to figure Cesar Izturis's name would show up. And it's moderately surprising that Deivi Cruz's didn't.

Although many impact free agents remain on the open market, the Orioles still have several holes on their projected 25-man roster. They clearly have some question marks, and unfortunately Hardy has to be considered one of them.

Barring any kind of setback with his shoulder, which is something that can't be ruled out anymore, he'll be the shortstop on opening day and for much of the year. But any kind of offensive contribution may end up being a bonus. And even though the Orioles don't seem to have much interest in trying to trade Hardy, he obviously wouldn't be easy to move anyway. He'll make $12.5 million in 2016 and $14 million in 2017, and his $14 million club option in 2018 ($2 million buyout) is fully guaranteed if he's traded (per Cot's). Good luck getting another team to pick up that tab.

The Orioles have some positions to upgrade, so they don't really have the luxury of worrying about Hardy. But fans do. A bounce-back of sorts almost has to be coming, but it might not be as big as fans anticipate.

9 comments:

P said...

So why did they dump Janish? Quality defensive SS are not hard to find, but Janish was proven, played extremely good defense, and hit quite well. No reason to release him when the team has to go get another one.

Matt Kremnitzer said...

You said it yourself: Players like Janish are not particularly difficult to find. He's also still a free agent, so the O's could still bring him back if they wanted.

Janish also had a wRC+ of 69 in limited duty last season, so I don't think it's fair to say he "hit quite well."

Anonymous said...

Maybe Hardy will bounce back like Uribe has over the past several seasons. His injury last year seems to have made us all more pessimistic than we should be.

Anonymous said...

Alex Gonzalez may be a good hopeful comparison too. At 33, he hit 23HR and 15HR at 34. I'd be happy with that from JJ.

Matt Kremnitzer said...

Seems like the Orioles are indeed bringing Janish back: https://twitter.com/masnRoch/status/681879853528920064

Jon Shepherd said...

The kind of injury he suffered certainly stacks the deck against him as we have shown with published scientific literature. Hope he is part of the lucky minority who come back to form.

P said...

I read that about 20 minutes after I posted my comment. Made me chuckle.
I guess he doesn't hit that well after all, but I saw him play several games with the big team last season and he seemed to get on base at a reasonable pace. Guess I was mistaken, but I'm glad he's back.

Anonymous said...

You were fooled by Janish's decent .286 batting average and his ability to give intelligent at- bats in clutch situations, such as sculpting a timely sac fly. The fact that Janish made such a good overall impression last year while playing only 14 games says a lot.

Jon Shepherd said...

Jack Voight! Jeff Manto!