The Camden Highball (Episode 7): Talkin' AL East in the Year 2015

On today's episode of Camden Highball, Pat and Nate discuss more of last week's Ryan Webb trade and try not to get overly excited about Ubaldo Jimenez's one hit (and more importantly one walk) performance on Saturday.  After that, in light of the Orioles upcoming series against Boston this weekend, we talk with Matthew Kory of Baseball Prospectus and the newly launched BP Boston to get his thoughts on the Red Sox, the Orioles and what to possibly expect from what appears to be a wide open AL East.

Camden Highball (Episode 7): Talkin' AL East in the Year 2015

1:08 - Pat and Nate talk about the Ryan Webb Trade
9:17 - UBALDO!
14:27 - Pat and Nate talk to BP's Matthew Kory about the Red Sox, Orioles, and the AL East

Orioles Pull Off a Confusing Trade With the Dodgers

As I sat down to write an article yesterday discussing some of the more curious roster moves the Orioles have made in this young season, the following tweet appeared across my timeline.

Source: #Dodgers and Orioles have made trade. At least two minor leaguers going to BAL. Triple A catcher Brian Ward to LAD, per @MASNRoch.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) April 9, 2015

After reading it, my initial thought wasn’t very profound and basically consisted of, “hmm…interesting”. As I continued writing, another tweet about the trade surfaced across my screen.

Reliever Ryan Webb and catcher Brian Ward going to Dodgers #orioles
— Roch Kubatko (@masnRoch) April 9, 2015

With each additional tweet and piece of breaking news regarding what I will now refer to as “The Ryan Webb Trade”, it became more and more clear that my original article idea would not be the one that would be posted, at least not today.

The details of the trade continued to trickle in, and each new piece of information led to additional confusion. Here’s the final tally on yesterday’s transaction:

Orioles Receive 

• RHP Ben Rowen
• C Chris O’Brien

Orioles Give Up 

• RHP Ryan Webb 
• C Brian Ward 
• 2015 Competitive Balance Draft Pick (Overall Pick #74)

It’s not a surprise that Webb was dealt. Despite being one of the team’s better relievers prior to being sent to AAA after the acquisition of Andrew Miller at the 2014 trade deadline, the Baltimore bullpen (in part because of the congested starting rotation) had become crowded and inflexible due to a combination of Rule 5 Draftees and players without options. Webb, who passed through waivers unclaimed last week, was the odd-man out and was designated for assignment before Monday’s opener. Ward’s inclusion in the deal doesn’t really amount to much. The Orioles catching situation at AAA was very crowded itself, and while he’s an excellent defender, he’s a career .237/.339/.318 hitter in more than 1,400 minor league plate appearances. He’s also 29 years old, so he can't be counted on to produce anything with the stick (including upside).

In return, the Orioles got a right-handed reliever in Rowen and a (MAYBE if you squint) 24-year-old catching prospect in O’Brien. O’Brien has a career .251/.316/.403 career line in 1,200 career minor league plate appearances, including a decent line of .266/.341/.438 in 407 PA’s last year in AA. According to Baseball America’s Ben Badler, O’Brien was the Dodgers 26th best prospect and profiles as a potential MLB backup. Rowen is a 26-year-old sub-mariner whose fastball tops out in the low 80’s, but limits home runs (only 7 in 262 minor league innings!) and induces a ton of groundballs. He has impressive numbers in the minors (1.72 ERA), but you don’t have to feel bad if you’re skeptical about his ability to produce at the major league level. Rowen is signed to a minor league deal and has two options remaining, which the Orioles front office places a lot of value on, but his best-case scenario is likely a (VERY) poor man’s Darren O’Day.

While the Dodgers agreed to take on all of Webb’s $2.75 million salary (which is nice), the most surprising part of the deal is Baltimore’s inclusion of the 2015 Competitive Balance Draft pick, which is pick #74 in this year’s draft. For a team that doesn’t have a very strong minor league system (Baseball Prospectus ranked them 22nd prior to the 2015 season), giving up a draft pick is a curious move. Sure, it’s been successfully argued that the likelihood of the 74th pick ever contributing to the major leagues is small, but there’s still a chance of getting a very valuable player at that spot (Toronto Blue Jays rookie pitcher and van enthusiast Daniel Norris was the 74th overall pick in the 2011 draft). What may be even more important to the Orioles is the loss of the $827,000 of draft pool money that came with that pick. It’s extra funding that goes a long way to helping them have a productive draft, regardless of who they specifically would have picked at number 74.

In the end, the Dodgers come out with the best player in the trade, the 74th overall draft pick in 2015 and an extra $827K in draft pool money, while the Orioles get (minimal) payroll and roster relief, along with some additional flexibility as a result of Rowen’s 2 remaining options. Through a very pessimistic set of eyes, this deal looks like the Orioles traded the 74th pick in the draft to save $2.75 million. The Orioles backed themselves into a bullpen roster crunch (and to a lesser extent, a AAA catching roster crunch), leaving them with very little leverage, resulting in a less than optimal trade. If saving $2.75 million was needed in order to get a better return on an upcoming deal for Brian Matusz (by eating most or all of his salary), then this trade becomes slightly more defensible. If not, then it doesn’t look like there will be much room to make additions at the trade deadline if the Orioles find themselves in contention.

Postseason Roster Crunch: The Pitching Staff

The Orioles manage their 25-man roster as meticulously as any team in the league. Dan Duquette and Buck Showalter regularly shuffle the roster throughout the season in order to make sure the best assets are available to help them win on any given day. However, when the postseason arrives, the day-to-day changes to the 25-man roster will no longer be an option. In the postseason, once a team submits its 25-man roster, it is set for that series. The only exception to this is that a team can replace an injured player during a series with permission from the Commissioner’s office. The injured player is not available for the duration of that series or the following series. In terms players available for the postseason roster, a rule change this season has expanded the pool to any player on the 40-man roster as of August 31st, as well as the same DL stipulations from previous years.

               

With added days off during a postseason series, a team has the opportunity to get creative with how their roster is constructed. However, in 2012, the Orioles went with the conventional 12 pitchers in the ALDS series vs. the Yankees, including all 5 members of their rotation on the roster for that series. While they could decide to do something different this year, the safest bet is that they will carry 12 pitchers, 5 of them being the current members of the rotation (Chris Tillman, Kevin Gausman, Wei-Yin Chen, Bud Norris, and Miguel Gonzalez). For the final 7 spots, Zach Britton, Darren O’Day, and Andrew Miller are all locks to be on the postseason roster, barring injury. The frontrunners for the final 4 spots are Tommy Hunter, Brian Matusz, Brad Brach, and T.J. McFarland. However, I think there’s a chance, to a varying degree, that any of these 4 players could be left off the postseason roster for at least a round. 

Here’s a look at the pitchers I think will fill the final 4 spots on the postseason and roster and why that may or may not end up being the case.  

Tommy Hunter-Hunter on the postseason roster is all but a sure thing, but he’s not as safe as the trio of Britton, O’Day, and Miller. Yes, Hunter has spent the entire season on the 25-man roster (other than a D.L. stint) but he’s out of options, so including him in the roster shuffling wasn’t a possibility.  After a rough start, Hunter has put together a nice season. In many ways, Hunter has actually put together a better season this year than in 2013.

Hunter	FIP	HR/9	GB%
2013	3.68	1.15	39.0
2014	3.32	0.68	51.3

Brian Matusz-I’d be equally surprised if Matusz wasn’t included on the postseason roster but I also don’t consider him a 100% lock either. Matusz hasn’t been as sharp this year. His 4.28 FIP in 2014 is a far cry from 2013’s 2.91. He hasn’t been as effective vs lefties, his strikeout rate has dropped, and he’s giving up more home runs.  There are certain opponents that will ensure Matusz is on the 25-man. For example, he will definitely be on the roster if the Orioles face the Angels due to the fact that Josh Hamilton is 1-for-13 with 8 K’s vs. Matusz. But if the Orioles play someone such as Kansas City, there’s no matchup that jumps out as to why Matusz must be included on the roster. At the same time, there’s no better option that jumps out as a reason to exclude Matusz. The most likely scenario in which Matusz is excluded is if the Orioles face the Tigers (although I’d still expect him to be on the roster). While much of the damage was done to Matusz by righties while he was a starter, the Tigers current roster has a slash line of .373/.415/.573 in 75 AB’s vs. him. Still, Matusz is all but assured a spot, in large part because he’s the primary lefty specialist option, despite the other LHP options available to Showalter.

Brad Brach- At the start of the season, no one had Brach pegged as a favorite to land a spot on the postseason roster. While he’s not as likely as Hunter or Matusz to be included, his 2014 performance will probably land him a spot. There are 11 pitchers who have thrown 10 or more relief innings for the Orioles this year. Out of these 11 pitchers, Brach ranks are respectable: ERA (6^th), FIP (7^th), and K/9 (5^th). Along with the fact that he’s been on the 25-man roster since mid-June, Brach will more likely than not be on the postseason roster.

T.J. McFarland-While I think McFarland is the most likely candidate to grab the last bullpen spot, he’s also the most likely, of these 4 relievers, to not make the postseason roster. If the Orioles again carry all 5 starters, there is an all but zero chance that each them are in the rotation in the best-of-5 ALDS series. With a starter pushed to the bullpen and thus able to be the long-man, does McFarland lose his spot on the postseason roster? A case can be made for keeping him regardless. After Britton, his 58.6 GB% is the best in the bullpen. He’s also had a solid 2^nd half, posting a 2.38 FIP. McFarland isn’t generally used as a matchup pitcher, but track record vs. the opponent will play a role in the decision. Yes, the sample sizes are small, but Showalter is known to heavily factor such things. Here’s McFarland’s career numbers vs. the O’s potential opponents.

McFarland vs.	AB	AVG/OBP/SLG
Royals	28	.393/.433/.571
Tigers	14	.143/.294/.357
Athletics	34	.294/.351/.412
Mariners	28	.357/.400/.464

Stats courtesy of ESPN.com

The Angels have a grand total of 2 PA’s vs. McFarland.

Given Showalter's tendency to weigh matchups so heavily, the most likely scenarios in which McFarland isn't on the postseason roster is if the Orioles face the Royals or the Mariners. 

Who is the most likely to replace one of the above relievers?

Ryan Webb-Nate did a great job of discussing why demoting Webb was a questionable decision. Simply put, he’s been one of the team’s better relievers when he’s been up. But he didn’t do himself any favors in Norfolk, posting an ERA (4.76) and FIP (3.27) inferior to his marks in Baltimore this year. I’d like to see Webb on the postseason over McFarland or Brach.

Player	FIP	ERA	K-BB%	IP	fWAR
Webb	2.61	3.80	13.6	42.2	0.8
Brach	3.60	3.25	12.2	52.2	0.4
McFarland	3.49	3.04	7.7	47.1	0.4

Matchup wise, there isn’t any particular hitter or team that Webb has had notable success against that will help his case to be included. The strongest case to include Webb is that he’s simply one of the 7 best relievers the Orioles have.

Evan Meek-Unlike Webb, Meek pitched effectively during his time in Norfolk, posting a 1.94/2.49 ERA/FIP. He was also entrusted with the closer role, picking up 16 saves. Nonetheless, Meek is a long shot to make the postseason roster given his performance in Baltimore this year. While some of that is due to an inflated BABIP and HR/FB, there are too many better options available to believe Meek will be on the active roster come October.

Ubaldo Jimenez-Well, here we are. Barring something drastic, Jimenez won’t be on the postseason roster. While it’s a topic for another time, I’m not writing Jimenez off in terms of ever being a productive player for the Orioles. But man, he has been bad this year. Since the year 2000, a pitcher has totaled 110+ IP in a season 1976 times. Of those 1976 instances, only 10 pitchers have had a higher BB/9 than Jimenez’s 5.51 this season. I tried to find a reasonable circumstance in which Jimenez makes the postseason roster and I don’t think one exists. I suppose if two starters go down with injuries, the Orioles may be forced to use him. Maybe Showalter will fall in love with the fact that the current Oakland roster has a .203 average vs. Jimenez (126 PA)? Finding a circumstance in which he makes the postseason roster is just an exercise in grasping at straws.

Preston Guilmet hasn’t been terrible this season, but I see no indication from the way he’s been used that he’ll be considered for a spot on the postseason roster. Joe Saunders also won’t be included.

The bullpen I believe the Orioles should use is only slightly different than the one I think they will use. I think that all 5 current SP (Tillman, Gausman, Chen, Norris, Gonzalez) will be on the roster. After that, Britton, O’Day and Miller are locks. Hunter and Matusz will also be included. Here’s where I think I will split from what the Orioles decide to do. Brach and McFarland will likely grab the last two spots, but I’d like to see Webb in place of either of them. Regardless, this staff is solid, and the bullpen is worth getting excited about no matter who grabs the final spot or two out there. What is even more exciting is the fact that it is the second week of September and we find ourselves able to talk about the Orioles and their all but certain postseason appearance.

All stats (current as of 9/6/14) courtesy of Fangraphs, unless otherwise noted. Photo by Keith Allison

Quick Thoughts on Recent Roster Changes

We’re in the home stretch of the 2014 season and the Orioles couldn’t be in a better position.  Prior to last night’s game, they sat 9.5 games in front of the New York Yankees in the American League East (their magic number to clinch the division was 17), which is the largest lead of any division in baseball.  Both Baseball Prospectus and ESPN have them as a near lock to make the playoffs at almost 100%, and BP also gives them a 99.1% chance to win the division outright.  Things are definitely looking good in Baltimore at the moment.  Despite the comfortable lead, the Orioles decided to bolster their roster last weekend with the help of a couple of trades and the expanded rosters, due to the end of the minor league season.  Let’s take a quick look at what transpired.

August 28 – Orioles recall INF Jimmy Paredes

Paredes essentially takes the roster spot of Cord Phelps, who was designated for assignment and later outrighted to the minors.  Paredes is a slightly better player than Phelps in basically all aspects of the game, and has experience playing the outfield as well, giving the team a little more positional flexibility.  Having said that, they’re both replacement level, so this move doesn’t really change much.

August 31 – Orioles trade 2B Jemile Weeks and 2B Ivan De Jesus Jr. to the Boston Red Sox in exchange for 3B Kelly Johnson and 3B Michael Almanzar

Kelly Johnson (photo via Keith Allison)

Baltimore basically traded its depth at the keystone for depth at the hot corner with this deal, and considering the fact that Manny Machado is out for the season, it’s not a bad idea.  Weeks (who was the “big get” in the Jim Johnson trade during the offseason) is a decent piece to have in your organization, but he’s limited to second base, and doesn’t even play that position very well.  On the other hand, Johnson can play pretty much anywhere except SS and CF, and (to my surprise) has been average or above average defensively at every position except second base.  He’s also a better hitter than Flaherty or Paredes, although we shouldn’t expect the above average offensive numbers Johnson has put up in the past, as he hasn’t been that type of hitter since 2010.

The inclusion of Almanzar is interesting, as the Orioles get him back after selecting him in the Rule 5 draft and returning him to the Red Sox.   I’m not exactly sure what Baltimore sees in him, but he’s more of a prospect than Weeks or De Jesus Jr, so it’s good that the team was able to pick him up again, especially without having to keep him on the 40-man roster this time around.

August 31 – Orioles trade RHP Mark Blackmar and RHP Miguel Chalas to the Chicago White Sox in exchange for OF Alejandro De Aza

Alejandro De Aza (photo via Keith Allison)

Picking up De Aza for two relief “prospects” looks like a nice move by Duquette and company.  The word “prospects” was in quotes intentionally, as Blackmar and Chalas are probably better classified as organizational filler.  They each have a chance at producing at the major league level, but through different means.  Chalas has the stuff, but doesn’t know where he’s throwing it, while Blackmar can locate his pitches, but there’s nothing special about them.

Meanwhile, De Aza adds outfield depth.  He has played mostly center field in his career, and grades out as a slightly above average outfielder according to UZR/150 (although DRS has him at -13).  So while he won’t be supplanting David Lough as a defensive replacement, he will be taking away some of his at-bats, especially against right handed pitching, where his career wRC+ of 102 looks much better than Lough’s, which currently sits at 90.  As an added bonus, De Aza is under club control next year as well, which could soften the blow should Nelson Cruz and/or Nick Markakis not return in 2015.

September 1 – Orioles recall RHP Evan Meek and purchase the contract of LHP Joe Saunders

These two were most likely recalled to soak up some innings in September and make sure the regular bullpen arms are rested when the playoffs start. We’ll always remember Saunders from those two magical starts in the 2012 playoffs where he allowed 2 runs in 11.1 innings, but he’ll reside in the bullpen now, waiting for the opportunity to mop things up.

September 2 – Orioles recall C Steve Clevenger and RHP Ryan Webb

Clevenger will likely be the emergency catcher, and has the potential to start a couple of times against right handed pitching.

Despite being Baltimore’s 3rd best reliever at the time, Webb was sent down to the minors with the acquisition of Andrew Miller, a move that confused me at the time (and still does actually).  In the end, it didn’t matter much, as the bullpen has been doing just fine without him.  Webb could see higher leverage situations (at least more than Meek and Saunders), but if I’m reading the postseason roster rules correctly, he won’t be eligible for the playoffs.  Consider me still confused.

September 2 – Orioles purchase the contract of OF Quintin Berry

Berry won’t be eligible for the playoffs either, but he’s on the September roster to do one thing, and that’s steal bases.  He’s a perfect 24 for 24 in stolen base attempts in his major league career.  It’s a little surprising that they didn’t find a way to add him in time to be playoff eligible, as it’s something the team doesn’t do much (or well).  They are 36 for 52 (69%) this season, which ranks 23rd in MLB (their 36 SB’s rank last by a healthy margin).  However, Berry doesn’t provide much value elsewhere, so it’s not much of a surprise they wouldn’t want to use a playoff roster spot on him.

As Roch Kubatko of MASN reported, the Orioles appear to be done with September call-ups barring injury, so the final 2014 roster appears set.  Having said that, take the month of September to watch the Orioles with a relaxed mind, because come October, that won’t be an option anymore.