Orioles Re-Sign Julio Borbon as AAA Insurance

Among the minor league free agents the Orioles signed this offseason is outfielder Julio Borbon. This is an unusual signing because the 29-year-old Borbon had only been in the Orioles system for one season. Most minor league free agents who re-sign with their current team have been in the system for several seasons; once a player signs with a new organization as a minor league free agent, he will usually move from team to team. Borbon's re-signing with the Orioles tells us a lot about the organization.

One reason the Orioles re-signed Borbon is that they don't believe that there is a viable in-house candidate to play center field at AAA. There's good reason for that belief. In 2014, the Norfolk center fielders were Borbon himself and Quintin Berry, both minor league free agents (three other players played a couple of games apiece.) The center fielders at AA Bowie were Dariel Alvarez, who is being groomed as a right fielder, and Mike Yastrzemski, who reached AA in his first full season and who is stretched as a center fielder. Borbon played well for Norfolk in 2014 (.284/.342/.356, with 34 stolen bases in 44 attempts) and a source in the organization has told me that the Orioles liked Borbon in the clubhouse.

Also, the Orioles had very little offensive speed in the upper levels of their system. Other than Borbon, players still in the organization combined for ten stolen bases with Norfolk in 2014; this includes the contributions of catchers Brian Ward and Steve Clevenger. As a team, Double-A Bowie stole 46 stolen bases (in 75 attempts) in 2014. Borbon fills an organizational need for a speedy player, who is also a center fielder.

Julio Borbon in his primary offensive role. Photo courtesy of Christopher McCain/Norfolk Tides

Borbon may also have a potential role on the major-league Orioles. He's a similar type of player to David Lough; an outfielder with [presumably] good defensive skills and iffy offensive skills. If Lough gets off to another slow start, perhaps the Orioles will consider Borbon as a short-term replacement. Or, if the Orioles are again in the postseason race come September 1, Borbon may be added to the expanded roster as a pinch-runner / defensive replacement, much like Quintin Berry was added in 2014. But that does raise a question - is Borbon a good defensive outfielder?

Borbon played most of his defense in center field, which in and of itself is a strong indicator that he's a good defensive outfielder. This is more true because he played center field even though Berry, a rangy (albeit weak-armed) outfielder, was also on the team; Berry mainly played left field. I compared Borbon's outfield putouts to the putouts of the other Norfolk 2014 center fielders; if he performed better than they did, that's another indicator that he's a good outfielder. I have data for 523 of Norfolk's defensive innings (41.1%), and the table below shows the number of putouts registered by the center fielders:

	Innings	Putouts	Putouts / 9 Innings
Julio Borbon	359	115	2.88
Non-Borbon	164	53	2.91
Dariel Alvarez	38	10	2.37
Quintin Berry	91	38	3.76
Francisco Peguero	26	1	0.35
Jemile Weeks	9	4

Borbon made almost exactly the number of putouts as did the other center fielders in theses games, but the data has many anomalies. While Francisco Peguero really isn't a center fielder, he probably isn't as bad as his performance here would show. As expected, Quintin Berry did show outstanding range, but his numbers are inflated by one game in which he made nine putouts. Factoring all this into account, the best conclusion we can draw is that the data neither confirms nor contradicts the idea that Borbon is a good defensive outfielder.

The signing of Julio Borbon confirms what followers of the Orioles' farm system already believed, that the Orioles farm system is weak in advanced center fielders. I'm glad that Borbon will [most likely] be the Norfolk center fielder, and there's a chance we'll see him with the Orioles in 2015.

Quick Thoughts on Recent Roster Changes

We’re in the home stretch of the 2014 season and the Orioles couldn’t be in a better position.  Prior to last night’s game, they sat 9.5 games in front of the New York Yankees in the American League East (their magic number to clinch the division was 17), which is the largest lead of any division in baseball.  Both Baseball Prospectus and ESPN have them as a near lock to make the playoffs at almost 100%, and BP also gives them a 99.1% chance to win the division outright.  Things are definitely looking good in Baltimore at the moment.  Despite the comfortable lead, the Orioles decided to bolster their roster last weekend with the help of a couple of trades and the expanded rosters, due to the end of the minor league season.  Let’s take a quick look at what transpired.

August 28 – Orioles recall INF Jimmy Paredes

Paredes essentially takes the roster spot of Cord Phelps, who was designated for assignment and later outrighted to the minors.  Paredes is a slightly better player than Phelps in basically all aspects of the game, and has experience playing the outfield as well, giving the team a little more positional flexibility.  Having said that, they’re both replacement level, so this move doesn’t really change much.

August 31 – Orioles trade 2B Jemile Weeks and 2B Ivan De Jesus Jr. to the Boston Red Sox in exchange for 3B Kelly Johnson and 3B Michael Almanzar

Kelly Johnson (photo via Keith Allison)

Baltimore basically traded its depth at the keystone for depth at the hot corner with this deal, and considering the fact that Manny Machado is out for the season, it’s not a bad idea.  Weeks (who was the “big get” in the Jim Johnson trade during the offseason) is a decent piece to have in your organization, but he’s limited to second base, and doesn’t even play that position very well.  On the other hand, Johnson can play pretty much anywhere except SS and CF, and (to my surprise) has been average or above average defensively at every position except second base.  He’s also a better hitter than Flaherty or Paredes, although we shouldn’t expect the above average offensive numbers Johnson has put up in the past, as he hasn’t been that type of hitter since 2010.

The inclusion of Almanzar is interesting, as the Orioles get him back after selecting him in the Rule 5 draft and returning him to the Red Sox.   I’m not exactly sure what Baltimore sees in him, but he’s more of a prospect than Weeks or De Jesus Jr, so it’s good that the team was able to pick him up again, especially without having to keep him on the 40-man roster this time around.

August 31 – Orioles trade RHP Mark Blackmar and RHP Miguel Chalas to the Chicago White Sox in exchange for OF Alejandro De Aza

Alejandro De Aza (photo via Keith Allison)

Picking up De Aza for two relief “prospects” looks like a nice move by Duquette and company.  The word “prospects” was in quotes intentionally, as Blackmar and Chalas are probably better classified as organizational filler.  They each have a chance at producing at the major league level, but through different means.  Chalas has the stuff, but doesn’t know where he’s throwing it, while Blackmar can locate his pitches, but there’s nothing special about them.

Meanwhile, De Aza adds outfield depth.  He has played mostly center field in his career, and grades out as a slightly above average outfielder according to UZR/150 (although DRS has him at -13).  So while he won’t be supplanting David Lough as a defensive replacement, he will be taking away some of his at-bats, especially against right handed pitching, where his career wRC+ of 102 looks much better than Lough’s, which currently sits at 90.  As an added bonus, De Aza is under club control next year as well, which could soften the blow should Nelson Cruz and/or Nick Markakis not return in 2015.

September 1 – Orioles recall RHP Evan Meek and purchase the contract of LHP Joe Saunders

These two were most likely recalled to soak up some innings in September and make sure the regular bullpen arms are rested when the playoffs start. We’ll always remember Saunders from those two magical starts in the 2012 playoffs where he allowed 2 runs in 11.1 innings, but he’ll reside in the bullpen now, waiting for the opportunity to mop things up.

September 2 – Orioles recall C Steve Clevenger and RHP Ryan Webb

Clevenger will likely be the emergency catcher, and has the potential to start a couple of times against right handed pitching.

Despite being Baltimore’s 3rd best reliever at the time, Webb was sent down to the minors with the acquisition of Andrew Miller, a move that confused me at the time (and still does actually).  In the end, it didn’t matter much, as the bullpen has been doing just fine without him.  Webb could see higher leverage situations (at least more than Meek and Saunders), but if I’m reading the postseason roster rules correctly, he won’t be eligible for the playoffs.  Consider me still confused.

September 2 – Orioles purchase the contract of OF Quintin Berry

Berry won’t be eligible for the playoffs either, but he’s on the September roster to do one thing, and that’s steal bases.  He’s a perfect 24 for 24 in stolen base attempts in his major league career.  It’s a little surprising that they didn’t find a way to add him in time to be playoff eligible, as it’s something the team doesn’t do much (or well).  They are 36 for 52 (69%) this season, which ranks 23rd in MLB (their 36 SB’s rank last by a healthy margin).  However, Berry doesn’t provide much value elsewhere, so it’s not much of a surprise they wouldn’t want to use a playoff roster spot on him.

As Roch Kubatko of MASN reported, the Orioles appear to be done with September call-ups barring injury, so the final 2014 roster appears set.  Having said that, take the month of September to watch the Orioles with a relaxed mind, because come October, that won’t be an option anymore.