The Manny Machado Sadness Extravaganza

Well, here we are. Based on all of the different reports flying around the Web, it sure sounds like Manny Machado has played his final game for the Baltimore Orioles. The latest news indicates that Philadelphia is the likely landing spot as the Phillies have upped their offer to include their number two overall prospect, and one of the top 100 youngsters in the game, 21-year-old pitcher Adonis Medina.

Nothing is final, but the finish line is rapidly approaching. Now what? Should we be happy? Are we relieved? Or is this all just so, so terrible? Perhaps it is a cop-out to say that it is a mix of everything, but that is the most honest answer.

A full reaction to Machado's exit won't be possible until after the trade is completed. That is when the analysis of who the Orioles have acquired can truly begin. Even then, we won't know who "won" the deal until several years down the road.

For now, let's enjoy watching Machado pull on the Orioles uniform one last time at tonight's All-Star Game and see where all the chips fall. Unfortunately, we don't have any other options.

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If The Orioles Move On From Mark Trumbo, It Won't Be Because Of A Draft Pick

The Orioles have done some unconventional things under Dan Duquette and Buck Showalter. Some of those things have produced tangible results, while some others may be best described as perplexing.

One area in which Duquette has tried to gain an advantage involves draft picks. The Orioles have not been shy about signing qualifying offer players, which means they're tied to draft pick compensation and their asking prices could be discounted. They've also traded competitive balance draft picks multiple times in order to shed salary during the season that could be used to add another player.

The Orioles' front office, or maybe mostly Duquette, must believe treating draft picks this way gives them some type of edge, and maybe it has. This strategy is frustrating and easy to mock, but even if it's only helped the team marginally, the overall results are still there. The Orioles haven't had a losing season since 2011, and they have compiled the best record in the American League since 2012.

That brings us to the ongoing Mark Trumbo saga. The Orioles seem to still want Trumbo back, but only at a certain cost. As Ken Rosenthal reported last week, Trumbo may be inclined to accept a three-year deal now, despite previously seeking at least four years. That "would at least appear to create room for negotiation," whatever that actually means.

On top of that, Duquette is doing his best to convince Trumbo, Trumbo's representation, and anyone else who will listen that, hey, the draft pick compensation matters in this case. In a recent interview, Duquette said that "as far as the Orioles go, we kind of like the value of that draft pick that’s been enhanced with the negotiation from the new collective bargaining agreement. In other words, it’s about the last time that you can acquire that level of pick for a compensation draft pick."

If you want to take Duquette's comments at face value, that's up to you. It's usually a better idea, however, to judge actions instead of words. And, again, the Orioles have not been shy about giving up draft picks if they think it will be beneficial.

Instances of the Orioles sacrificing MLB Draft picks under Duquette:

• July 2013: Acquired Bud Norris and an international bonus slot for L.J. Hoes, Josh Hader, and a competitive balance pick (ended up being 37th pick)
• Feb. 2014: Signed Ubaldo Jimenez and Nelson Cruz (lost picks No. 17 and No. 55)
• April 2015: Traded Ryan Webb, Brian Ward, and a competitive balance pick (ended up being 74th pick) to Dodgers for Ben Rowen and Chris O'Brien
• Feb. 2016: Signed Yovani Gallardo (lost pick No. 14)
• May 2016: Traded Brian Matusz and a competitive balance pick (ended up being 74th pick) to the Braves for Brandon Barker and Trevor Belicek

As a result of qualifying offer players signing with other teams, the Orioles also added a couple picks: Nelson Cruz signed with the Mariners (added Ryan Mountcastle at No. 36 in 2015); and Wei-Yin Chen signed with the Marlins (added Cody Sedlock at No. 27). Mountcastle and Sedlock are two of the better prospects in the O's system, which both tells you that extra picks matter, and that the Orioles' farm system is not in great shape.

So here's the final tally of gained and lost picks:
Extra draft picks: Nos. 27 and 36
Forfeited/traded draft picks: Nos. 14, 17, 37, 55, 74, 74

Maybe you don't mind the Orioles missing some of those later picks. It depends how you view the MLB Draft. I look at it as a glorified lottery, meaning every extra pick gets you a little bit closer to potentially landing a talented player. Still, the O's have tried to use both the qualifying offer and competitive balance pick systems to their advantage, however minuscule it may be.

It's always nice to have an extra draft pick, but the Orioles have also assembled a win-now roster. The future is uncertain; several key players will likely be departing in the next few years. Is this really the time to start worrying about draft picks, just because the pick compensation system will be changing?

The win-now state of the roster is also why it's frustrating that the Orioles didn't make a serious run at Edwin Encarnacion. Trumbo is apparently seeking something in the three-year, $40-$50 million range. Encarnacion signed with the Indians for three years and $60 million (with a club option in 2021). Both players are 1B/DH types, and Trumbo is a few years younger than Encarnacion. Encarnacion, though, is the much better hitter.

The difference in career wOBA between Edwin Encarnacion (.365) and Mark Trumbo (.332) is about the same as Trumbo and Julio Borbon (.298).

— Matt Kremnitzer (@mattkremnitzer) December 23, 2016

Encarnacion's wRC+ of 134 last year was his lowest in the past five seasons. In 2016, arguably the best offensive season of Trumbo's career, he posted a wRC+ of 123 (he also had a 124 wRC+ in 2012). Even at his absolute best, Trumbo falls short of Encarnacion by a decent margin.

If the Orioles didn't want to spend on Encarnacion and don't want to risk disrupting the clubhouse (and fanbase?) with a Jose Bautista signing, moving on from Trumbo still makes sense in ways that have nothing to do with a draft pick (though that's an added bonus). Chris Carter brings similar skills to the table for less money. A Pedro Alvarez reunion at DH, possibly paired with Trey Mancini, would be cost effective. And while the roster is getting rather full with outfield options, there's still a chance the team can add an actual decent defensive outfielder (even if it's Michael Bourn).

The Orioles are playing hardball with Trumbo. It's not wise for them to bid against themselves, so don't think the draft pick is any significant motivation. It hasn't been before, and the O's are doing what they can to maximize the performance of the major league roster. That's what they've done, and it's worked, even if some of the moves have been misguided. Don't go and start taking Duquette's word on things now.

Stats via FanGraphs. Transaction and contract info via MLB Trade Rumors and Cot's.

Orioles Pull Off a Confusing Trade With the Dodgers

As I sat down to write an article yesterday discussing some of the more curious roster moves the Orioles have made in this young season, the following tweet appeared across my timeline.

Source: #Dodgers and Orioles have made trade. At least two minor leaguers going to BAL. Triple A catcher Brian Ward to LAD, per @MASNRoch.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) April 9, 2015

After reading it, my initial thought wasn’t very profound and basically consisted of, “hmm…interesting”. As I continued writing, another tweet about the trade surfaced across my screen.

Reliever Ryan Webb and catcher Brian Ward going to Dodgers #orioles
— Roch Kubatko (@masnRoch) April 9, 2015

With each additional tweet and piece of breaking news regarding what I will now refer to as “The Ryan Webb Trade”, it became more and more clear that my original article idea would not be the one that would be posted, at least not today.

The details of the trade continued to trickle in, and each new piece of information led to additional confusion. Here’s the final tally on yesterday’s transaction:

Orioles Receive 

• RHP Ben Rowen
• C Chris O’Brien

Orioles Give Up 

• RHP Ryan Webb 
• C Brian Ward 
• 2015 Competitive Balance Draft Pick (Overall Pick #74)

It’s not a surprise that Webb was dealt. Despite being one of the team’s better relievers prior to being sent to AAA after the acquisition of Andrew Miller at the 2014 trade deadline, the Baltimore bullpen (in part because of the congested starting rotation) had become crowded and inflexible due to a combination of Rule 5 Draftees and players without options. Webb, who passed through waivers unclaimed last week, was the odd-man out and was designated for assignment before Monday’s opener. Ward’s inclusion in the deal doesn’t really amount to much. The Orioles catching situation at AAA was very crowded itself, and while he’s an excellent defender, he’s a career .237/.339/.318 hitter in more than 1,400 minor league plate appearances. He’s also 29 years old, so he can't be counted on to produce anything with the stick (including upside).

In return, the Orioles got a right-handed reliever in Rowen and a (MAYBE if you squint) 24-year-old catching prospect in O’Brien. O’Brien has a career .251/.316/.403 career line in 1,200 career minor league plate appearances, including a decent line of .266/.341/.438 in 407 PA’s last year in AA. According to Baseball America’s Ben Badler, O’Brien was the Dodgers 26th best prospect and profiles as a potential MLB backup. Rowen is a 26-year-old sub-mariner whose fastball tops out in the low 80’s, but limits home runs (only 7 in 262 minor league innings!) and induces a ton of groundballs. He has impressive numbers in the minors (1.72 ERA), but you don’t have to feel bad if you’re skeptical about his ability to produce at the major league level. Rowen is signed to a minor league deal and has two options remaining, which the Orioles front office places a lot of value on, but his best-case scenario is likely a (VERY) poor man’s Darren O’Day.

While the Dodgers agreed to take on all of Webb’s $2.75 million salary (which is nice), the most surprising part of the deal is Baltimore’s inclusion of the 2015 Competitive Balance Draft pick, which is pick #74 in this year’s draft. For a team that doesn’t have a very strong minor league system (Baseball Prospectus ranked them 22nd prior to the 2015 season), giving up a draft pick is a curious move. Sure, it’s been successfully argued that the likelihood of the 74th pick ever contributing to the major leagues is small, but there’s still a chance of getting a very valuable player at that spot (Toronto Blue Jays rookie pitcher and van enthusiast Daniel Norris was the 74th overall pick in the 2011 draft). What may be even more important to the Orioles is the loss of the $827,000 of draft pool money that came with that pick. It’s extra funding that goes a long way to helping them have a productive draft, regardless of who they specifically would have picked at number 74.

In the end, the Dodgers come out with the best player in the trade, the 74th overall draft pick in 2015 and an extra $827K in draft pool money, while the Orioles get (minimal) payroll and roster relief, along with some additional flexibility as a result of Rowen’s 2 remaining options. Through a very pessimistic set of eyes, this deal looks like the Orioles traded the 74th pick in the draft to save $2.75 million. The Orioles backed themselves into a bullpen roster crunch (and to a lesser extent, a AAA catching roster crunch), leaving them with very little leverage, resulting in a less than optimal trade. If saving $2.75 million was needed in order to get a better return on an upcoming deal for Brian Matusz (by eating most or all of his salary), then this trade becomes slightly more defensible. If not, then it doesn’t look like there will be much room to make additions at the trade deadline if the Orioles find themselves in contention.

Orioles Acquire Travis Snider, Gain Additional Depth

Travis Snider (photo via Tom Hagerty)

After failing to bring back Nick Markakis and Nelson Cruz, the Orioles have been in the market for another outfielder for much of the offseason.  While they missed out on the free agents (which left us a little confused), they finally landed their man by acquiring outfielder Travis Snider from the Pirates for minor league pitcher Stephen Tarpley and a "player to be named later."  Let’s take a quick look at Baltimore’s new outfielder and also see what they had to give up to get him.

What the Orioles Received

Travis Snider was the 14^th overall pick in the 2006 draft.  As a top prospect, Snider absolutely crushed the ball during his time in the minors, hitting a combined .309/.383/.525  in 2200 plate appearances across all levels.  That success in the minors never really carried over to the majors though, as he basically resembled a typical quad-A player (someone too good for AAA, but not good enough for the majors).  Here’s what Snider has been able to do over the course of his major league career.

Year	Age	PA	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+
2008	20	80	2	5	23	.301	.338	.466	114
2009	21	276	9	29	78	.241	.328	.419	95
2010	22	319	14	21	79	.255	.304	.463	105
2011	23	202	3	11	56	.225	.269	.348	65
2012	24	185	4	17	48	.250	.319	.378	92
2013	25	285	5	24	75	.215	.281	.333	74
2014	26	359	13	34	67	.264	.338	.438	118
7 Yrs		1706	50	141	426	.246	.310	.406	95

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/28/2015.

The overall numbers aren’t too encouraging, but the good news is that 2014 was his best season by far, as he produced career marks in almost every offensive category. So which version of Travis Snider will the Orioles get in 2015?  On one hand, it’s hard to ignore the rather sizable sample of Snider’s struggles prior to last year.  On the other, Snider just had a much better season at the plate than the recently departed Nick Markakis (albeit in less PA’s) and is a former top prospect that will only turn 27 in the next week. After several years of being one of the best outfielders in baseball, it’s easy to forget that Alex Gordon struggled on offense until his age 27 season.  I’m not saying Snider will have an Alex Gordon type breakout, but some guys take a little bit longer to figure it out.

Having said that, Snider may not even be an everyday player.  Back in December, Matt looked at a rumored deal that would have sent Brian Matusz to the Pirates in exchange for Snider and took a quick look at Snider’s possible platoon issues.  While his overall splits don’t scream “platoon player”, there are legitimate reasons to believe Snider is not a good option against left-handers, including a strikeout rate over 33% and the fact that he hasn’t been given much of an opportunity to even face left-handed pitching (277 career PA’s).

Earlier in the offseason, we here at Camden Depot stated that an outfield consisting of Jones/Pearce/De Aza/Lough actually wouldn’t be much worse than 2014’s group.  However, it’s not unreasonable to think that this group (minus Jones) has a higher chance to disappoint (especially offensively) than not, so picking up Snider as another outfield option was a nice move by the front office to hedge their bets.  Additionally, Snider doesn’t cost much (he signed for $2.1 million in 2014) and is under team control next year as well.  It’s a good pickup, especially when considering that both De Aza and Pearce will be free agents after the season.

What the Orioles Gave Up

In order to get Snider, the Orioles gave up left-handed pitcher Stephen Tarpley and a “player to be named later”.  Tarpley was the Orioles 3^rd round pick in the 2013 draft out of Scottsdale Community College.  He spent all last season pitching in Aberdeen (Short Season A-Ball), sporting a 3.66 ERA over 66.1 innings, while striking out 60 and walking 24.

This offseason, Tarpley was rated by Baseball Prospectus as the Orioles 9th best prospect (subscription required and recommended).  Essentially, Tarpley shows good stuff on the mound, but he lacks polish on his command and his secondary pitches.  BP’s prospect team sees him as having the ceiling of a number 3 or 4 starter, but a more realistic role of a 6^th inning reliever/long man in the bullpen.  So while he does have a higher ceiling than some of the pitchers ahead of him on that list (pitchers not named Bundy or Harvey), he has a way to go to reach that ceiling.

The other player going to the Pirates in this deal is currently unknown, and according to Roch Kubatko of MASN, that player likely won’t be known until spring training.  However, Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun reported that left-hander Steven Brault could be the PTBNL.  Brault was drafted in the 11^th round of the 2013 draft and spent the 2014 season between Low-A Delmarva and High-A Frederick.  I couldn’t find much else on him, so I asked Tucker Blair of Baseball Prospectus for some insight:

“Steven Brault is an athletic-framed lefty that was signed out of Regis University, which has never seen a player make the majors. I've seen Brault quite a few times while he was with Aberdeen, Delmarva, and Frederick. He generally sits 90-92 with average present command, but his fastball has some sink and run on it. He also has a SL, CB and CH, with the first two fringy. The CH has some deception and fade to it, and is largely the reason his numbers have been so productive throughout his first two seasons. He hides the pitch well out of his hand. Brault has enjoyed success so far in pro ball due to his loose arm and that deception, but I lean more towards him being a role 4 relief type, as I haven't seen the consistency in his mechanics and the stuff leans mostly towards the average side. There isn't a ton of room for mistakes, which I think will be exploited some at the higher levels. For now, he's an intriguing option as a backend starter type.”

Conclusion

Overall this trade appears to be a good one for both teams to make.  Travis Snider gives the Orioles the outfielder they’ve been searching for all offseason long, at minimal cost in terms of dollars and prospects.  As for Pittsburgh, they end up with one intriguing pitching prospect (possibly two) for a player who would have struggled to find at-bats next season.  Baltimore fans may have preferred the Brian Matusz for Snider swap that was discussed earlier, but it’s unlikely that Baltimore will miss Tarpley (or Brault, if he is the PTBNL). Tarpley may have the ceiling of a number 3 or 4 starter, but he’ll begin the 2015 season as a 22 year old having yet to reach Low-A.  In other words, it’s probably going to take a while for him to get there, if he ever does.

As a team planning on contending in 2015, Travis Snider is worth much more to the Orioles than either of the minor league players they gave up for him. Snider gives the Orioles another solid option in the outfield or off the bench.  And if they’re lucky, there’s even a chance he’s more than just a solid option.  When this deal was announced, our own Matt Kremnitzer asked an interesting question that's important to remember when considering this trade.

So if you had to pick the Markakis deal or the Snider trade, what would you take? I think it's Snider in a landslide.
— Matt Kremnitzer (@mattkremnitzer) January 28, 2015

If you’re being honest with yourself, I bet you probably agree with him.