21 October 2014

2015 Steamer Projections for the Orioles' Arbitration-Eligible Pitchers

The Orioles have a lot of decisions facing them this off-season. They have big name free-agents, the Nick Markakis option decision, important players entering their final year of team control, as well as a number of players in arbitration. These decisions facing the Orioles will get plenty of attention on Camden Depot as we proceed through the off-season. In this post, I'm not going to offer opinions on the decisions facing the team, but instead hope that this creates a useful resource as we proceed into the off-season. A couple other resources that may be helpful are Jon's arrivals and departures post, as well as this salary chart courtesy of Grantland.

The list below are all of the Orioles pitchers facing salary arbitration. In my next post, I'll take a look at the hitters. I've included some 2014 numbers for each players, but just as important are the 2015 Steamer projections for these players, in order to give the arbitration cases some context.

Photo by Keith Allison


Bud Norris
Arbitration year 3
2014 salary: $5.3 million

IP
FIP
fWAR
2014
165.1
4.22
1.5
2015 Projection
182.0
4.34
1.4

Tommy Hunter
Arbitration year 3
2014 salary: $3 million

IP
FIP
fWAR
2014
60.2
3.15
0.8
2015 Projection
35.0
3.55
0.2

Brian Matusz
Arbitration year 3
2014 salary: $2.4 million

IP
FIP
fWAR
2014
51.2
4.00
0.3
2015 Projection
40.0
4.03
0.1

Evan Meek
Arbitration year 1
2014 salary: $800,000

IP
FIP
fWAR
2014
23.1
5.10
-0.4
2015 Projection
1.0*
4.51
0.0
*For players who weren't on the active roster when a team's season ended, they are only give 1 game played for now. This will be fixed after the playoffs, but I believe the rate projections will be unchanged. 

Chris Tillman
Arbitration year 1
2014 salary: $546,000

IP
FIP
fWAR
2014
207.1
4.01
2.4
2015 Projection
202.0
4.64
0.9

Miguel Gonzalez
Arbitration year 1
2014 salary: $529,000

IP
FIP
fWAR
2014
159.0
4.89
0.6
2015 Projection
189.0
4.95
0.2

Zach Britton
Arbitration year 1
2014 salary: $521,500

IP
FIP
fWAR
2014
76.1
3,13
1.1
2015 Projection
65.0
3,29
0.7

These are the 7 Orioles pitchers that are eligible for arbitration this off-season. Like I said, I put this together as a resource, as there is still plenty of time to debate and analyze the decisions facing the Orioles. Feel free to do so in the comments, if you'd like. In my next post I'll take a look at the hitters who are eligible for arbitration. 

17 comments:

Rick said...

It's a little bit unfair for them to project a regression from each player (I'm ignoring Meek). Miguel is the oldest and he's only 30! Some of these guys may have yet to reach their peak.
That being said, Matusz is only guy I don't look forward to seeing in orange and black next year. He struggled mightily at times this year, even with lefties. He has also now given up two HUGE postseason home runs in extra innings TO LEFTIES--Ibanez in 2012 ALDS Game 2 and Moustakas in 2014 ALCS Game 1. I just never feel comfortable watching him pitch, especially not in Camden Yards.

Pat Holden said...

Matusz may not be back. Him and Hunter are most likely to not be back because of money.
And the Orioles current staff will never fare well in projections. We have a group of guys who generally out pitch their FIP.

Peter said...

That's fair I guess. Saying their FIP will be higher doesn't necessarily mean they will all have worse seasons.

Also, what is the likelihood of O'Day's option being picked up? He's another guy who struggled with giving up the long ball in the last couple months but his last 3 years have been dominant overall with some help from the defense.

Matt Kremnitzer said...

Roch says they are going to pick up O'Day's option.

http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2014/10/decisions-looming-on-key-contributors.html

Pat Holden said...

Yeah, I'd be really surprised if they didn't pick up O'Day's deal.

Philip said...

I cant understand why the projections are downward?
I understand that FIP is high, but ERA is low because of a superb defense behind them.
The argument can be made(and I make it) that the Orioles pitchers, with any other defense behind them(except KC) would not be productive.
Baltimore's defense isn't suddenly turning into Detroit.
In order for the projections to be downward, presumably the defense would have to degrade?
But if the defense remains at current levels(and with a better RF and Manny for a full season, one would think it would actually improve) the projections should be for better performance.
Am I missing something?
BTW, PLEASE don't bring back Matusz.
There are gobs of competent LOOGYs out there who have broken fewer hearts for less money.

Pat Holden said...

Philip, fWAR is FIP based, not ERA. Not sure if that addresses your concern...?

Anonymous said...

I agree with others...Matusz should and probably will not be back.. and I wasn't impressed with Meek either.
Tillman, Norris, Chen & Gonzalez have all the potential in the world, all still young, and still learning - give Wallace alot for the improvements in the 2nd half.
Hunter has shown he can be dominant in a inning or two, but would not trust him back as a starter.
Hopefuly Duquette keeps our big four in the fold for years to come, we have some promising arms still down in the mionors - I like Tim Berry as a big surprise in the next season - pitching & defense wins championships - see where the homers got us right...But can't wait for next year - Go O's

Anonymous said...

So your "system" had every pitcher getting worse. Every one. Did it ever occur that maybe the system is flawed? How of were its projections of these pitchers last year?

Pat Holden said...

Anon,
The "system" isn't mine. No projection system is perfect, it's important to not take them personally or as an insult, as they don't determine reality.
And, like I said, I wasn't endorsing or condoning the projections, just providing them on the players facing arbitration.

Anonymous said...

OK, the system, not your system (speaking of taking things personally...)

How about the question of how this system did in projecting these players in previous years? The whole point of these types of projections is to try and model the real world as well as possible. The way to determine how useful a system may be is to examine it's historical performance.

Pat Holden said...

Just using your words, Anon. And pointing out this isn't some system I just dreamed up. It's widely used. That's not taking anything personally, it's putting thing in a relevant context.

There's more info on Steamers projections on Fangraphs as well as here. http://steamerprojections.com/blog/about/

Anonymous said...

Are you going to answer the question of how accurate this projection system has been for these pitchers in past years?

Matt Kremnitzer said...

Anon, that is something you are free to look up yourself. Perhaps one of us will look at that topic in the future. The point of Pat's post was not to defend an entire projection system or model. There are plenty of places where you can read more about projection systems.

Pat Holden said...

Anon,
When asking someone to provide things for you that you can easily look up on your own, a better tone would be helpful.

Anonymous said...

Good luck with your website. Honestly, you're reading tone that isn't there, but I don't expect you to accept that feedback.

Matt Kremnitzer said...

Thank you for reading.