It's no secret that the bullpen was a strength of the 2014 Orioles team. The bullpen finished 6th in MLB in ERA and 5th in fWAR (although just 15th in FIP). Zach Britton was a revelation, going from failed starter to being one of the better closers in baseball in 2014. Darren O'Day put together another great campaign, making picking up his $4.25 million option a no-brainer. Andrew Miller was brought in at the deadline to bolster the back end of the bullpen and was dominant during his time in Baltimore.
Orioles fans saw first-hand just how important bullpens can become in the postseason. In the ALDS, a strong effort by the club's bullpen, combined with an atrocious Tigers' bullpen, helped to lift the team to the ALCS. The Orioles' bullpen wasn't awful in the ALCS, but it sputtered at times, while the back-end of the Royals bullpen was strong.
Looking at the success of the Orioles' bullpen this season, and the importance of bullpens in the postseason, might lead one to believe that bolstering the bullpen with the best relievers available on the free-agent market should be a top priority for the Orioles this off-season. We've written here before
why relievers shouldn't be overvalued. Orioles' fans need only look so far as Britton, Jim Johnson, Tommy Hunter, Brian Matusz and so on to know that great seasons from a reliever can come from unexpected and cheap options. So, offering a reliever top dollar (Hey, Andrew Miller!) is generally not the most efficient use of resources and is
certainly risky.
The Orioles are pretty brilliant with how they approach their bullpen strategy. They get rid of relievers such as Jim Johnson once they become overpriced, and they are also really good at accumulating players with options, such as T.J. McFarland, Brad Brach etc. in order to increase the odds of finding lightening in a bottle during any particular season.
With that in mind, I'm going to take a look at the internal options for the Orioles' bullpen this year as well as a few external options that they should consider.
Zach Britton-Britton, coming off a dominant season as the Orioles closer, is
entering his first year of salary arbitration. While he will certainly make more money in 2015, Britton's arbitration number will still be reasonable. If he continues to put together solid seasons as the closer, he could eventually get the Jim Johnson treatment and be shipped out of town, but for 2015 Britton is a lock to enter the season as the closer.
Darren O'Day-As I said above, the Orioles smartly picked up O'Day's option for 2015. $4.25 million isn't dirt cheap for a reliever, but it's certainly reasonable given O'Day's level of production and, more importantly, it's only for one year.
Tommy Hunter-Hunter is entering his third year of salary arbitration after earning $3 million in 2014. He will get a raise. If the Orioles are looking to reallocate resources, he could be moved. But I think the club should keep Hunter around given the fact that the financial commitment is only for one year. After a rocky stretch as the team's closer to start 2014, Hunter settled in to become an integral part of the pen, leading all Orioles' relievers with a second-half fWAR of 0.6.
Brian Matusz-Just like Hunter, Matusz is entering his third year of arbitration. He earned $2.4 million in 2014 and will also be getting a raise. I think the Orioles should cut ties with Matusz, whether that be through non-tendering him or trading him. Don't get me wrong,
Matusz had a great second half for the club, but the Orioles will get better value by letting a cheaper option handle his innings and reallocating his salary elsewhere.
Ryan Webb-Webb seemed to fall out of favor in Baltimore, but I hope he's back and given a chance to contribute next season. He's under contract for a reasonable $2.75 million. He also was pretty good
when he was given the chance to pitch in Baltimore this season.
T.J. McFarland-McFarland is one of the players who could receive an expanded role should the team move Matusz. He'll be cheap and he has two option years reaming, giving the team the roster flexibility it covets. That being said, I'd expect McFarland to spend the majority of the season in Baltimore.
Brad Brach-Brach isn't eligible for arbitration until next season, so he'll be back on the cheap. He is out of options, but Showalter clearly trusts the guy, so it seems as if a spot in the bullpen is his to lose in 2015.
The Orioles have other options, although not all currently on the 40-man, who will compete for time in the bullpen next season such as Evan Meek, Tim Berry, Mike Wright, and Suk-min Yoon. Dylan Bundy could also be an option at some point in the season, given the Orioles' crowded rotation and the fact that he's had trouble staying healthy (not a long-term move to the bullpen, but he'll be considered if the team is in a pinch and he's rested). Buck Showalter recently hinted at the fact that
some of the Orioles' young arms in the system could be used as relievers in Baltimore before being given a shot at the rotation. Expect the Orioles to add a few guys with option years to minor league deals or off of waivers,
as they recently did with Patrick McCoy.
So, here's where the bullpen stands now, as I see it.
1) Britton
2) O'Day
3) Hunter
4) Brach
5) McFarland
6) Webb
7) ???
Webb might not be back given his 2014 usage, 2015 salary, and the fact that he's out of options, much like all of those relievers except for McFarland. The Orioles may prefer to use his spot on a cheaper reliever with options that gives them roster flexibility or on a LHP, particular if Matusz is not brought back. But, regardless, the Orioles have a spot or two in the bullpen that they should look to fill this off-season, probably with a LHP given that McFarland is the only LHP of the group above. Here are a few players I think they should consider.
|
Player
|
GP
|
FIP
|
ERA
|
fWAR
|
2014 Salary
|
K/9
|
|
Zach Duke
|
74
|
2.14
|
2.45
|
1.3
|
$850K
|
11.35
|
|
Tom Gorzelanny
|
23
|
2.99
|
0.86
|
0.2
|
$2.95 mil
|
9.86
|
|
Neal Cotts
|
73
|
3.58
|
4.32
|
0.8
|
$2.2 mil
|
8.51
|
|
Joe Thatcher
|
53
|
3.43
|
3.86
|
0.2
|
$2.38 mil
|
8.01
|
I've ordered the pitchers by K/9, as the Orioles should target strikeout relievers to help boost a bullpen that is all but certain to lose Andrew Miller after finishing 24th in the league in K/9 in 2014.
Duke is a very appealing option after a stellar 2014 campaign. His cost shouldn't be anything too outrageous, as he wasn't even the Brewers primary setup option last season. This was his first full season dedicated solely to being a reliever and he thrived.
While Steamers projects him to come back down to earth a bit in terms of K/9 next season, he would be welcomed addition to the Orioles bullpen, likely at a very reasonable salary.
Gorzelanny pitched well for the Brewers once he recovered from his 2013 shoulder surgery. With questions about his durability and limited high-leverage use in 2014, Gorzelanny could be a good value in the Orioles 2015 bullpen.
Cotts is another LHP option that strikes more batters out than the average pitcher in the Orioles' bullpen. Of the 4 pitchers I've listed, I think Cotts may draw the most attention around the league. However, a reliever who has just 4 career saves and is coming off a good but not dominant season shouldn't command too high of a salary.
Thatcher is another left-handed reliever on the market
who can likely be had for a very reasonable value. Thatcher's 2014 BABIP of .340 is well above his career mark of .316, suggesting a beneficial change in luck may be headed his way in 2015.
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The Orioles 2015 bullpen should include Britton, O'Day, Hunter, Brach, and McFarland. I'd like to see Ryan Webb in the bullpen as well but wouldn't be terribly upset if they shed his salary and allowed multiple players with options (such as McCoy), on minor league deals, and Spring Training invites to compete for a spot. That still leaves one spot open for the Orioles to go out and sign one of these 4 LHP that would provide a boost to a bullpen that needs to strike more people out next season.
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