At the end of 2012, Jon invited me to write for Camden Depot. It was the first time anyone had invited me to post anywhere other than my own bare-bones sports blog, and I jumped at the chance. Considering my affinity for fringe outfielders, utility players, and mysterious relievers, it seems fitting that my first post on Camden Depot was about Nolan Reimold. Maybe this one, my last, should have been about Steve Pearce.
Over the years, contributing to Camden Depot allowed me the opportunity to do some things I never thought possible. I wrote about Kevin Gausman's major league debut on ESPN SweetSpot, and about Manny Machado the year after that. I helped with write-ups for ESPN.com's weekly MLB power rankings. I contributed to MASNsports.com. I've also appeared on a few podcasts and managed to not completely embarrass myself.
Most importantly, I was able to talk baseball with other talented writers on a daily basis and find my voice. Jon, in particular, pushed me to think about the game in different ways and challenged me to do better work. He was available to answer questions, even simple ones, and offer ideas and direction. There's no question that he's been a tremendous help, and I'm extremely thankful.
By now, you may be aware that Camden Depot will be shutting things down soon and that Jon is moving on from analytical baseball writing. While I'm not sure if the other Depot writers will be continuing on elsewhere, starting today, I'm happy to announce that I'll be contributing to The Athletic Baltimore and writing about the Orioles. The plan, for now, is for me to contribute weekly, and it may grow into something more. You can read my first article, on Mark Trumbo, here.
Writing for Camden Depot has been a rewarding experience, but it’s time for something new. I’m thrilled that Jon provided the larger stage for more people to read what I had to offer, and I’m appreciative to anyone who read my work over the years - especially those of you who enjoyed it. I hope you continue to do so.
Showing posts with label Kremnitzer. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kremnitzer. Show all posts
19 July 2018
09 July 2018
Just How Bad Is This Orioles Team?
The Orioles' ineptitude train is showing no signs of slowing down. After completing a winless six-game road trip with stops in Philadelphia and Minnesota, the Orioles are now 24-65 (worst in the majors) and have been outscored by 144 runs (second worst in the majors).
Throughout the season, the O's have been compared to the 1988 team that infamously lost its first 21 games. The 2018 team went 6-15 in its first 21 games. And now, after 89 games, the 2018 team is not only behind the slow pace of the 1988 squad but is losing more ground:
1988 Orioles: 29-60 after 89 games
2018 Orioles: 24-65 after 89 games
The comparisons to the 1988 team, which finished 54-107, won't stop. At some point, the 1988 team could be the ones who are embarrassed by the comparisons. Two of the worst teams in recent baseball history, the 1962 Mets (40-120, .250 win pct.) and the 2003 Tigers (43-119, .265 win pct.), could be within the Orioles' sights.
To make things worse, there's almost nothing to feel good about individually with this team (non-Manny Machado division). Even bad teams have strong performances, and the Orioles have seen some now and then from their younger players (Dylan Bundy, Kevin Gausman, a few relievers, Chance Sisco, etc.). But besides the hope that some upcoming trades will infuse this organization with some much-needed talent and believing in a few players on Triple-A Norfolk's roster and a handful of players who are another season or more away, there's very little else.
Jon noted in early May that this is the abyss, and he wasn't wrong. We knew that it was deep. That doesn't mean we were truly prepared for it. Maybe no one can be.
Throughout the season, the O's have been compared to the 1988 team that infamously lost its first 21 games. The 2018 team went 6-15 in its first 21 games. And now, after 89 games, the 2018 team is not only behind the slow pace of the 1988 squad but is losing more ground:
1988 Orioles: 29-60 after 89 games
2018 Orioles: 24-65 after 89 games
The comparisons to the 1988 team, which finished 54-107, won't stop. At some point, the 1988 team could be the ones who are embarrassed by the comparisons. Two of the worst teams in recent baseball history, the 1962 Mets (40-120, .250 win pct.) and the 2003 Tigers (43-119, .265 win pct.), could be within the Orioles' sights.
Right now, the O's winning percentage (.270) would be the worst of any team in the franchise's history (including some truly terrible St. Louis Browns teams). The closest would be the 1939 Browns, with a .279 winning percentage. The 1988 Orioles had a winning percentage of .335.Winless road trip. Lost finale 10-1 in Minneapolis. Could have been worse. COULD have been a 10 game trip!!— Joe Angel (@WaveItByeBye) July 8, 2018
To make things worse, there's almost nothing to feel good about individually with this team (non-Manny Machado division). Even bad teams have strong performances, and the Orioles have seen some now and then from their younger players (Dylan Bundy, Kevin Gausman, a few relievers, Chance Sisco, etc.). But besides the hope that some upcoming trades will infuse this organization with some much-needed talent and believing in a few players on Triple-A Norfolk's roster and a handful of players who are another season or more away, there's very little else.
Jon noted in early May that this is the abyss, and he wasn't wrong. We knew that it was deep. That doesn't mean we were truly prepared for it. Maybe no one can be.
06 July 2018
Tanner Scott's Spectacular (But Not Immaculate) Inning
The Orioles lost yet again last night. It can be tough to find positives when a team is this bad, but they're still there -- just not as many as you'd like. Jonathan Schoop homered twice yesterday, for example, and accounted for the O's only two runs. The former is good; the latter isn't.
There wasn't much to like about last night's loss, but Tanner Scott's relief work in the seventh inning was awfully impressive. He hadn't pitched for almost a week, and he looked well rested and dominant.
First, Scott faced Joe Mauer. He struck him out on three pitches. Next, he faced Eddie Rosario. He struck him out on three pitches. Finally, he faced Brian Dozier. He struck him out on four pitches. Here's how the Dozier at-bat ended:
Ten pitches, three strikeouts, all swinging at low-90s sliders. It wasn't an immaculate inning (three strikeouts on nine pitches), but it was extremely close. The first pitch in Dozier's at-bat was called a ball for being too high, but it seemed to straddle the zone. Here's where the pitch was charted on MLB.com:
Yup, that's close, but it's not egregious. There are worse calls in just about every game. Umpiring is hard, after all.
Scott has flashed this type of brilliance other times this season, and he's probably the most intriguing young relief weapon in the Orioles' organization. It would help if he'd master his third pitch, a changeup, to make him that much more dangerous. But when he already owns a fastball that can touch triple digits and a filthy slider, it's plenty enough to get excited about.
If you just look at Scott's 6.04 ERA, you won't be impressed. But he's been pretty unlucky on balls in play (.415 BABIP) while racking up the strikeouts (32.7 K%). That strikeout percentage is 27th best among all pitchers who've thrown at least 20 innings. That's not Josh Hader (50.9%) or Aroldis Chapman (44.5%) territory, but it's still very good.
Scott's 2.88 FIP also makes you feel better about the high ERA. His ERA-FIP of 3.16 is the fifth highest among all pitchers with 20 innings. While that's not a guarantee he'll stop allowing as many runs, considering his age (23), pitch repertoire, and peripherals, there's enough there to believe he'll start putting it all together soon.
There wasn't much to like about last night's loss, but Tanner Scott's relief work in the seventh inning was awfully impressive. He hadn't pitched for almost a week, and he looked well rested and dominant.
First, Scott faced Joe Mauer. He struck him out on three pitches. Next, he faced Eddie Rosario. He struck him out on three pitches. Finally, he faced Brian Dozier. He struck him out on four pitches. Here's how the Dozier at-bat ended:
Ten pitches, three strikeouts, all swinging at low-90s sliders. It wasn't an immaculate inning (three strikeouts on nine pitches), but it was extremely close. The first pitch in Dozier's at-bat was called a ball for being too high, but it seemed to straddle the zone. Here's where the pitch was charted on MLB.com:
Yup, that's close, but it's not egregious. There are worse calls in just about every game. Umpiring is hard, after all.
Scott has flashed this type of brilliance other times this season, and he's probably the most intriguing young relief weapon in the Orioles' organization. It would help if he'd master his third pitch, a changeup, to make him that much more dangerous. But when he already owns a fastball that can touch triple digits and a filthy slider, it's plenty enough to get excited about.
If you just look at Scott's 6.04 ERA, you won't be impressed. But he's been pretty unlucky on balls in play (.415 BABIP) while racking up the strikeouts (32.7 K%). That strikeout percentage is 27th best among all pitchers who've thrown at least 20 innings. That's not Josh Hader (50.9%) or Aroldis Chapman (44.5%) territory, but it's still very good.
Scott's 2.88 FIP also makes you feel better about the high ERA. His ERA-FIP of 3.16 is the fifth highest among all pitchers with 20 innings. While that's not a guarantee he'll stop allowing as many runs, considering his age (23), pitch repertoire, and peripherals, there's enough there to believe he'll start putting it all together soon.
05 July 2018
How The Orioles Should Approach Trade Season
Somehow, the Orioles are 24-61. They clearly have trades to make, and there should be a lot of them. The non-waiver trade deadline is coming up at the end of July, and those in charge (in whatever order) should be doing everything possible to improve the future prospects of the club.
Here are things they should do before the deadline:
1. Trade expiring players. That includes Manny Machado, Zach Britton, Adam Jones, Brad Brach, and Danny Valencia. This step is really the bare minimum. For all of these players, there is at least a tiny bit of value. As a platoon bat with a questionable glove, Valencia probably has the least value. That also depends how Britton performs in his next handful of starts. Perhaps the Orioles are focusing on a Machado trade, and that'll be the first domino to fall. Regardless, holding on to any of these players through the end of the year would be rather pointless. Get the best possible return and move on.
2. Be open to trading anyone. Look at the Orioles roster. Who would you consider untouchable in a trade? Dylan Bundy? Kevin Gausman? Trey Mancini? Chance Sisco? Tanner Scott or Miguel Castro? The options are limited. Sisco, Scott, and Castro are all 23, so it's easy to sell them as part of a rebuilding club. Perhaps Mancini is, too, since he's 26 and under team control through 2022 (though the Orioles need to get him away from the outfield).
However, Bundy and Gausman are where things start to get interesting. Jonathan Schoop was much more interesting before this season started. Of the trade chips in the first step, Machado is the only real significant player to deal. Both of these things are true: The Orioles need more decent, young-ish starters like Bundy and Gausman, but they've limited the ways in which to attract them. That won't be by spending big internationally. And it won't be by spending for an ace in free agency (which isn't the worst plan). But that means the only two realistic ways are to select one in the MLB draft, or to trade for one. While the O's have some intriguing talent in the low levels of the minors, there isn't anyone who seems to have ace potential. Making a bunch of Rule 5 draft picks every year isn't going to change that.
Simply put: The Orioles need more high-end prospects. In the short term, it won't help to get rid of Gausman or Bundy, or both. But in the short term, the Orioles are also going to be bad. Plus, Gausman is scheduled to be a free agent in 2021, and Bundy is about to get more expensive as he enters the first of his three arbitration seasons. That doesn't mean the Orioles can't afford them, of course, but it's still a part of the larger picture.
Keeping those two guys around wouldn't be the worst idea, but that would also limit the Orioles' ability to maximize the trade value of its roster and embark on a full rebuilding effort.
3. Get rid of the 1B/DH glut. For now, Chris Davis isn't going anywhere. The Orioles aren't going to remove him from the roster while he has four more seasons on his contract after this one. And to be fair, almost no other team would do that, either. That means Davis will likely be this team's main option at first base through next season. But no matter what, the Orioles need to do whatever is possible to trade Mark Trumbo and give Mancini the chance to get regular work at DH and split time at first base.
Trumbo has one more year left on his contract after 2018, for $13.5 million (with some of it deferred). He also has a limited no-trade clause and can block a deal to seven clubs each season. It won't be easy to move him, but thankfully he is sporting a 119 wRC+ at the moment and is continuing his trend of hitting much better when he's not DHing. Some team could use him at first base, and it's possible he'd be a shrewd addition. The O's would almost certainly have to include some money in a deal, which they should. Maybe some of the cost savings from Colby Rasmus walking away could be used towards that.
There's no getting rid of Davis, but moving Trumbo (and Valencia) would help make room on the roster for Cedric Mullins (131 wRC+ in Norfolk) and DJ Stewart (124 wRC+ in Norfolk), who could be promoted to Baltimore soon. If Jones is dealt, Mullins should be the regular center fielder, and Stewart could see work in one of the corner outfield spots.
-----
The Orioles' farm system does seem to be improving, but it needs more top-level talent. It's unlikely they can get that by trading Machado and just hoping everything else works out. The Orioles should be willing to put nearly everyone on the table and get serious about making things better for the future.
Here are things they should do before the deadline:
1. Trade expiring players. That includes Manny Machado, Zach Britton, Adam Jones, Brad Brach, and Danny Valencia. This step is really the bare minimum. For all of these players, there is at least a tiny bit of value. As a platoon bat with a questionable glove, Valencia probably has the least value. That also depends how Britton performs in his next handful of starts. Perhaps the Orioles are focusing on a Machado trade, and that'll be the first domino to fall. Regardless, holding on to any of these players through the end of the year would be rather pointless. Get the best possible return and move on.
2. Be open to trading anyone. Look at the Orioles roster. Who would you consider untouchable in a trade? Dylan Bundy? Kevin Gausman? Trey Mancini? Chance Sisco? Tanner Scott or Miguel Castro? The options are limited. Sisco, Scott, and Castro are all 23, so it's easy to sell them as part of a rebuilding club. Perhaps Mancini is, too, since he's 26 and under team control through 2022 (though the Orioles need to get him away from the outfield).
However, Bundy and Gausman are where things start to get interesting. Jonathan Schoop was much more interesting before this season started. Of the trade chips in the first step, Machado is the only real significant player to deal. Both of these things are true: The Orioles need more decent, young-ish starters like Bundy and Gausman, but they've limited the ways in which to attract them. That won't be by spending big internationally. And it won't be by spending for an ace in free agency (which isn't the worst plan). But that means the only two realistic ways are to select one in the MLB draft, or to trade for one. While the O's have some intriguing talent in the low levels of the minors, there isn't anyone who seems to have ace potential. Making a bunch of Rule 5 draft picks every year isn't going to change that.
Simply put: The Orioles need more high-end prospects. In the short term, it won't help to get rid of Gausman or Bundy, or both. But in the short term, the Orioles are also going to be bad. Plus, Gausman is scheduled to be a free agent in 2021, and Bundy is about to get more expensive as he enters the first of his three arbitration seasons. That doesn't mean the Orioles can't afford them, of course, but it's still a part of the larger picture.
Keeping those two guys around wouldn't be the worst idea, but that would also limit the Orioles' ability to maximize the trade value of its roster and embark on a full rebuilding effort.
3. Get rid of the 1B/DH glut. For now, Chris Davis isn't going anywhere. The Orioles aren't going to remove him from the roster while he has four more seasons on his contract after this one. And to be fair, almost no other team would do that, either. That means Davis will likely be this team's main option at first base through next season. But no matter what, the Orioles need to do whatever is possible to trade Mark Trumbo and give Mancini the chance to get regular work at DH and split time at first base.
Trumbo has one more year left on his contract after 2018, for $13.5 million (with some of it deferred). He also has a limited no-trade clause and can block a deal to seven clubs each season. It won't be easy to move him, but thankfully he is sporting a 119 wRC+ at the moment and is continuing his trend of hitting much better when he's not DHing. Some team could use him at first base, and it's possible he'd be a shrewd addition. The O's would almost certainly have to include some money in a deal, which they should. Maybe some of the cost savings from Colby Rasmus walking away could be used towards that.
There's no getting rid of Davis, but moving Trumbo (and Valencia) would help make room on the roster for Cedric Mullins (131 wRC+ in Norfolk) and DJ Stewart (124 wRC+ in Norfolk), who could be promoted to Baltimore soon. If Jones is dealt, Mullins should be the regular center fielder, and Stewart could see work in one of the corner outfield spots.
-----
The Orioles' farm system does seem to be improving, but it needs more top-level talent. It's unlikely they can get that by trading Machado and just hoping everything else works out. The Orioles should be willing to put nearly everyone on the table and get serious about making things better for the future.
03 July 2018
Kevin Gausman Is Doing Second-Half Things In The First Half
Like other promising but inconsistent starting pitchers throughout the game, Kevin Gausman can look amazing and terrible in consecutive starts. It can happen to any pitcher, really, because baseball is incredibly difficult, but there's something about the Orioles and not getting the most out of their pitching talent.
Gausman also has made a habit of putting together cold-then-hot campaigns. In his five big league seasons before 2018, Gausman easily performed better in the second half:
1st half (2013-2017): 4.94 ERA, 4.39 FIP, 19.5 K%, 7.5 BB%
2nd half (2013-2017): 3.58 ERA, 3.84 FIP, 23.7 K%, 7.1 BB%
These strong second halves typically lead to Gausman breakout questions. What if he could do this for a full season? He could be an actual frontline starting pitcher, or even *gasp* an ace!
Well, it's July now, and Gausman is having himself a solid first half, with a 4.05 ERA and a 4.36 FIP. That ERA is better than league average for a starter in the American League (4.27), while the FIP isn't (4.25). But even though his strikeouts aren't as high as they've been the last few seasons (20.7 K%), Gausman is doing some things to get excited about. His 5.8 BB% would be the lowest of his career (previous low of 6.2%), and his groundball rate (46.3%) would be the highest (previous high of 44.4%).
Gausman has dialed back his fastball usage a bit while throwing his secondary offerings -- his split-change up (his best pitch) and his slider -- more. He isn't getting as many swings and misses as in previous seasons, but his nasty splitter is generating more grounders.
He also made a tweak in mid-April that seems to be paying dividends. Before an April 18 start against the Tigers, Gausman decided to adjust his windup by bringing his hands behind his head:
The adjustment was born out of his dry throws off the mound Tuesday at Comerica Park, his day-before-starting ritual.This is what Gausman's windup looked like in October 2017:
"I just kind of started messing around with it," Gausman said. "And it felt really good. I felt like I was landing in the same spot every time, and just felt like I was really reaching toward home plate. I told [pitching coach Roger McDowell] yesterday that I was going to do it, and he kind of challenged me a little more and said, 'No, you're not.' And whenever someone challenges me that I can't do something, I'm probably going to do that."
He also started the year with his traditional windup, but that didn't last long. Since his start on the 18th, Gausman's windup has looked like this one (on May 22):
It's not an enormous change, but Gausman has been very good since: 3.61 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 20.6 K%, 5.2 BB%. Coincidentally, he also posted that exact same ERA and a similar FIP (4.10) in 2016, his best individual season to date. It may be a coincidence, but Gausman's fastball velocity increased in May and then again in June.
Still, there have been bumps in the road. On May 17, Gausman allowed six runs in 4.2 innings against the Red Sox. A week and a half later, he lasted just 2.2 innings against the Rays while giving up seven runs.
But in his last five starts, he's gone at least 5.2 innings in each outing while allowing three or fewer runs. On April 23, he threw an immaculate inning against the Indians while allowing two runs in eight innings. On May 5, he threw nine innings of shutout ball in Oakland in a game the Orioles somehow lost 2-0 in 12 innings. And most recently, he tossed eight innings of two-run ball against the Angels.
Gausman has gone on intriguing pitching runs before. Pitchers adjust all the time, and Gausman is no different. Maybe this season he'll switch things up by having an encouraging first half followed by an underwhelming second half. Or maybe Gausman will keep things rolling and put together his best season since 2016, or perhaps one that's even better. Whether the new windup is leading to smoother mechanics or is just easing Gausman mentally, it's working for now. And don't forget: Anyone pitching well in front of this defense deserves credit.
Photo: Keith Allison. Stats via FanGraphs and Brooks Baseball.
29 June 2018
Buck Showalter Enjoys Analytics, Except When He Doesn't
Buck Showalter presents himself as an old-school baseball man who patronizes modern analytics. He'll defend certain things he likes -- defensive shifts, batter/pitcher match-ups, platoon splits -- but when he's backed into a corner or trying to be funny, he won't hesitate to take shots at analytics or non-traditional ways of looking at the game.
In interviews, Showalter can come across as thoughtful and open while in after-game briefings he may wildly spray peculiar accusations about analytical approaches. Here are some examples. Interviewed by David Laurila of FanGraphs, Showalter provided some insight into how baseball is changing (and also how it isn't). Many fans won't agree with every point, but again, it was interesting and contemplative, and included quotes like this:
Then, while describing a nice read on the basepaths by Adam Jones yesterday, Showalter said this:
These sort of combative stances against analytics in general sort of made sense during the Orioles' run up until 2017. Showalter's teams were routinely winning games despite the deck being stacked against them, and it was hard to figure out exactly how they were doing it. Perhaps they didn't get enough credit for defying the projections for years and continuing to win.
But those days are over. At 23-57, the Orioles are the worst team in baseball. The Marlins, who were accused of tanking before the season started by shedding the team of talent (and payroll), have nine more wins.
In an interview with Jayson Stark in May, Showalter discussed many of the same things that he talked about in the FanGraphs conversation above. But he also starts the interview off with something troubling:
"I want to verify what my gut is telling me." No, that's not what you want! In some situations, that is fine, but our guts are often wrong. You want to be challenged! You want analytics to tell you that leaving Zach Britton in the bullpen in a must-win game is a mistake (they do). You want them to tell you that it's a mistake to use Jace Peterson or Craig Gentry as a leadoff hitter (they do).
Analytics are not the enemy, and I'm not sure who Showalter is trolling at this point. Who does he think is not getting enough credit on a team that's 34 games under .500? What are the Orioles doing that is proving many in the analytical community wrong? And why is he being so combative?
If these are just parting shots Showalter is making to someone (Dan Duquette, perhaps?) on the way out the door, that seems awfully petty. But by some accounts, Showalter could still be the O's manager beyond this season or even shift to a front office role. The Orioles don't need to continue employing a troll. They need someone who is going to search for real answers and try to fix this mess by using whatever means necessary.
Jon Shepherd contributed to this article.
In interviews, Showalter can come across as thoughtful and open while in after-game briefings he may wildly spray peculiar accusations about analytical approaches. Here are some examples. Interviewed by David Laurila of FanGraphs, Showalter provided some insight into how baseball is changing (and also how it isn't). Many fans won't agree with every point, but again, it was interesting and contemplative, and included quotes like this:
“One thing about analytics is that we all question what we don’t understand. You need to learn, so during the spring we do Analytics for Dummies. That’s what we call it. We take our most veteran baseball people, our on-the-field lifers, and bring them upstairs to go over every analytic there is and find the [equivalent of a] .300 batting average in every one of them. We take the black cloud of unknown away from it.Communication and being open to new ways of thinking are both extremely important. But it's hard to get the idea that Showalter is really open when he's saying things like this after last week's wild 10-7 win over the Braves in 15 innings:
“What we’ve found is that most of our veteran people go, ‘Oh, really? That’s all it is?’ They’re not demeaning it, they’re just saying, ‘Now I understand.’ Know where the .300 batting average of WAR is, and what it tells you. Just as important, what doesn’t it tell you that you have to be aware of.
Showalter on how to explain quiet game getting crazy: “Well, the launch angles ... No, that’s baseball. That’s why you don’t play it on a computer and it’s not purely analytical. That’s why people come, because things happen that aren’t supposed to happen on paper. And there’s three outs in an inning and everybody gets their turn. You can’t hand the ball to your best shooter or your best running back. You have to wait your turn in the batting order. It’s such a team game and there’s just so much ...No one said anything to Showalter about launch angles. It's also like it's become his job to destroy straw men at arbitrary times.
Then, while describing a nice read on the basepaths by Adam Jones yesterday, Showalter said this:
“I can’t tell you how few people will score on that ball,” Showalter said, “and that’s a baseball player, that’s a lead, that’s a secondary lead, that’s anticipation of the swing through the zone. He’s a third base coach’s dream. In fact, we’re going to show it in the next advance meeting.There are, in fact, baserunning metrics that take into account the ability to get a great read and take an extra base. Advanced analytical departments in organizations can do even better than what is publicly available for identifying how well a player performs on the basepaths. Statcast can also be used to show leads, secondary leads, and how baserunners respond to a ball in flight. But OK, sure, no single statistic is completely perfect or tells the whole story.
“So where does that show up in evaluation or analytics? His anticipation, his baseball player skills. That is a really hard ball to score on.
These sort of combative stances against analytics in general sort of made sense during the Orioles' run up until 2017. Showalter's teams were routinely winning games despite the deck being stacked against them, and it was hard to figure out exactly how they were doing it. Perhaps they didn't get enough credit for defying the projections for years and continuing to win.
But those days are over. At 23-57, the Orioles are the worst team in baseball. The Marlins, who were accused of tanking before the season started by shedding the team of talent (and payroll), have nine more wins.
In an interview with Jayson Stark in May, Showalter discussed many of the same things that he talked about in the FanGraphs conversation above. But he also starts the interview off with something troubling:
"I want to verify what my gut is telling me." No, that's not what you want! In some situations, that is fine, but our guts are often wrong. You want to be challenged! You want analytics to tell you that leaving Zach Britton in the bullpen in a must-win game is a mistake (they do). You want them to tell you that it's a mistake to use Jace Peterson or Craig Gentry as a leadoff hitter (they do).
Analytics are not the enemy, and I'm not sure who Showalter is trolling at this point. Who does he think is not getting enough credit on a team that's 34 games under .500? What are the Orioles doing that is proving many in the analytical community wrong? And why is he being so combative?
If these are just parting shots Showalter is making to someone (Dan Duquette, perhaps?) on the way out the door, that seems awfully petty. But by some accounts, Showalter could still be the O's manager beyond this season or even shift to a front office role. The Orioles don't need to continue employing a troll. They need someone who is going to search for real answers and try to fix this mess by using whatever means necessary.
Jon Shepherd contributed to this article.
27 June 2018
Meet Chris Davis 2.0, Same As The Old Chris Davis
After a June 11 loss to the Red Sox, Buck Showalter benched Chris Davis. Working with some combination of Scott Coolbaugh, Howie Clark, and most notably, Brady Anderson, the Orioles' do-it-all vice president of baseball operations who wants the freedom to keep doing whatever he wants to do, Davis went to work on fixing his batting approach.
During Davis's absence, Showalter noted that Davis would return to the lineup when he got the go-ahead from Anderson and Coolbaugh. He also wouldn't go into the details of what Davis was working on, giving this interesting response:
Since that game, though, Davis has failed to reach base in his next 11 plate appearances. Despite that solid return game, Chris Davis 2.0 has performed closely to the first version:
Davis through June 11: .207 wOBA, 23 wRC+, 8.3 BB%, 37.6 K% (229 PA)
Davis from June 22-26: .224 wOBA, 35 wRC+, 9.1 BB%, 45.5 K% (22 PA)
It's such a small sample, so perhaps the results will show up soon. Showalter cautioned that Davis needs to stick with his apparent new approach and fixes, even through the hard times.
Still, while expecting wholesale changes was unlikely -- it's not like Davis was going to completely transform into some contact hitter or entirely overhaul his batting stance in a week and a half -- Davis doesn't look much different from the earlier version.
Here's how his batting stance looked the day before he was benched:
And here's how it looked yesterday against the Mariners:
Maybe his stance is slightly more closed, and perhaps his hands are a little lower. But they're nearly identical.
When Davis struck out on June 11, it looked like this:
Davis struck out three times yesterday. The second one looked like this:
Maybe it's somewhat unfair to focus on these two trips to the plate by Davis. The first is against Steven Wright, a knuckleballer. The second is against James Paxton, one of the best left-handed pitchers in the game. But the day before facing Wright, Davis batted against Marco Estrada and looked the same. Yet, as Showalter has noted more than once, when Davis is back, he's back. It doesn't matter who the opposing pitcher is.
There's no sign that another benching is coming soon. By all accounts, Davis is going to play every day for an extended period of time. The hope is that whatever changes he worked on start to produce actual results, like in those first two games back.
At some point, though, if Davis keeps doing what he's doing, even a team that's 30 games under .500 has to give this up. Whether he hits or not, Davis is going to earn every penny that's owed to him. It's up to the O's to realize that Davis, who has far and away been the worst player in baseball this year, is beyond fixing. That almost certainly won't come this year, but maybe it'll come in 2019. There's only so many times someone can think "he can't be this bad" before reality sets in.
During Davis's absence, Showalter noted that Davis would return to the lineup when he got the go-ahead from Anderson and Coolbaugh. He also wouldn't go into the details of what Davis was working on, giving this interesting response:
"I don't think that's fair to him," Showalter said. "It's tough, in a business that you want this instant return. It's like years ago, Rick Down was a first-year hitting coach in New York and he had great ideas — as good a hitting coach as you ever want to see.I don't know for sure, but that seems like a long-winded way of saying Davis is impatient. Then again, a few days later, Roch Kubatko dropped this nugget in his morning article on June 17 (emphasis added):
"The only thing I cautioned him with big league hitters is be careful coming in so strong right out of the chute, the first day in the cage in spring training because they'll be receptive, but if they don't get this instant return, it's going to be a while until you're going to be able to get in there again. You kind of watch them and take things in and sooner or later, they're going to come over to you and say, hey, what do you think? Then you got them. Because if they don't get an instant return, sometimes at this level, I think the players are so talented, there's some things that he and hitting coach Scott Coolbaugh] and [assistant hitting coach Howie Clark] do, sometimes there's not that instant return that doesn't always come. Sometimes, it's on to the next thing. Sometimes, that can be tough, too. It's true with everybody, not just Chris."
Davis’ t-shirt was soaked with sweat as he returned to the clubhouse and he was in good spirits. It may not provide a solution, but Davis is working on making changes to his approach at the plate. He’s been stubborn to do so, according to multiple people in the organization, but he’s currently under renovation.Maybe that's not surprising for someone who had so much success earlier in his career. Still, Davis finally surfaced in the O's lineup again on June 22 against the Braves. In his first plate appearance, he walked. In his second, he homered! Later in the game, he also hit a sacrifice fly and was intentionally walked. The next day, Davis knocked in three runs with a bases-clearing double. Considering Davis hadn't collected an extra-base hit for over a month (since May 18), hitting a home run and a double on back-to-back days seemed incredible.
Since that game, though, Davis has failed to reach base in his next 11 plate appearances. Despite that solid return game, Chris Davis 2.0 has performed closely to the first version:
Davis through June 11: .207 wOBA, 23 wRC+, 8.3 BB%, 37.6 K% (229 PA)
Davis from June 22-26: .224 wOBA, 35 wRC+, 9.1 BB%, 45.5 K% (22 PA)
It's such a small sample, so perhaps the results will show up soon. Showalter cautioned that Davis needs to stick with his apparent new approach and fixes, even through the hard times.
Still, while expecting wholesale changes was unlikely -- it's not like Davis was going to completely transform into some contact hitter or entirely overhaul his batting stance in a week and a half -- Davis doesn't look much different from the earlier version.
Here's how his batting stance looked the day before he was benched:
And here's how it looked yesterday against the Mariners:
Maybe his stance is slightly more closed, and perhaps his hands are a little lower. But they're nearly identical.
When Davis struck out on June 11, it looked like this:
Davis struck out three times yesterday. The second one looked like this:
Maybe it's somewhat unfair to focus on these two trips to the plate by Davis. The first is against Steven Wright, a knuckleballer. The second is against James Paxton, one of the best left-handed pitchers in the game. But the day before facing Wright, Davis batted against Marco Estrada and looked the same. Yet, as Showalter has noted more than once, when Davis is back, he's back. It doesn't matter who the opposing pitcher is.
There's no sign that another benching is coming soon. By all accounts, Davis is going to play every day for an extended period of time. The hope is that whatever changes he worked on start to produce actual results, like in those first two games back.
At some point, though, if Davis keeps doing what he's doing, even a team that's 30 games under .500 has to give this up. Whether he hits or not, Davis is going to earn every penny that's owed to him. It's up to the O's to realize that Davis, who has far and away been the worst player in baseball this year, is beyond fixing. That almost certainly won't come this year, but maybe it'll come in 2019. There's only so many times someone can think "he can't be this bad" before reality sets in.
25 June 2018
Is Zach Britton OK?
It remains to be seen if the Orioles will consider dealing any player who is under team control beyond 2018. Still, every trade chip among the team's "big four" of soon-to-be free agents besides Manny Machado -- Adam Jones, Brad Brach, and Zach Britton -- has at least one major issue. Jones is no longer a capable defender in center field. Brach is a good reliever, but not a great one. And Britton, who is now back after rupturing his Achilles in December, has an ERA over 6, a FIP over 4, and does not yet look like himself. (The quality of Machado's defense at shortstop is also a question mark, if you want to nitpick, but he is still the team's top trade chip, by far.)
Back to Britton. After being activated on June 11, he made his first appearance of the year on June 12, which was a few days earlier than the June 15 return date Buck Showalter mentioned in early June. In his 2018 debut, Britton walked three but still tossed a scoreless inning. His next three appearances were relatively uneventful, though his vaunted sinker hit 93 and 94 mph on the radar gun instead of 96 and 97 (or higher).
Then, this past Friday, Britton had a major meltdown. After the Orioles surprisingly rallied from a 3-1 deficit in the ninth inning to take a 7-3 lead over the Braves, Britton entered the game hoping to shut things down. That didn't happen. All six batters reached -- in order: single, double, hit-by-pitch, single, single, double -- and the game was quickly tied at 7. The game-typing double, hit by Nick Markakis on a 93 mph sinker that didn't sink, had to sting (although it was an exciting play, with the potential winning run thrown out at the plate):
Britton didn't get much help from his defense; that second hit, a double to deep center field by Danny Santana, was muffed at the wall by Jones. But Britton was shaky from the start.
It's hard to judge any pitcher on six appearances and just 5.2 innings, but overall, the numbers aren't good. Britton has six strikeouts but five walks. Opposing batters are also finding it a little easier to put the ball in the air against him. Britton's 60% groundball percentage and his 13.3% fly ball percentage would be his lowest and highest, respectively, since 2013.
Any pitcher can have a really bad outing, and in such a small sample of innings, that ugly ninth inning on Friday makes Britton's numbers look worse. But there's a little more to it than that. As usual, Britton has thrown his sinker over 90% of the time since he returned. It's one of the best pitches in baseball, and it's his bread-and-butter pitch. But right now, Britton has an average velocity on his sinker of 94.3 mph. That would be his lowest since 2013 (92.5), when he was still being used as a starting pitcher. Since the full-time switch in 2014, he hasn't been below 96.2 mph.
Interestingly enough, Britton's hardest pitch of 2018 came in that first outing on June 12: 96.5 mph. Since then, he's yet to throw a pitch over 95 mph. When Britton is at his best with his sinker, he's obviously able to get lots of sink but also plenty of horizontal movement. While some more sink has returned in 2018 after a subpar (for him) and injury-filled 2017, Britton's sinker is moving less horizontally than it ever has. He's also spiking his sinker more than usual; the vertical location of the pitch would be his lowest since his rookie season. The velocity isn't there, and neither is the command.
Maybe this is just Britton's natural progression as he begins to round into form. Rupturing an Achilles is a significant injury, and Britton was able to return and pitch in a major league game just five months and 23 days after sustaining the injury. That's incredible. I can't imagine how much work went into returning that fast, and Britton surely seemed to do everything in his power to get back quickly.
Britton and the Orioles both have an extra incentive for him to start pitching better soon. He almost surely isn't part of the team's plans beyond 2018, and the O's need him to start looking like the 2015 or 2016 version so they can get as much as possible in a July trade. And Britton is currently playing for his next contract, so he wants to prove to teams that he's healthy and can still be a dominant closer. It would be impossible for a team that's interested in his services to not have at least some hesitation at the moment.
The hope is that Britton is truly healthy and he'll be able to light up the radar gun soon as he builds up strength. There's a lot counting on it.
Photo: Keith Allison. Stats via FanGraphs and Brooks Baseball.
21 June 2018
This Isn't The Alex Cobb The Orioles Hoped They Were Getting
It was a surprise when the Orioles signed Alex Cobb in late March, and it showed, in their own, weird way, they were still kinda/sorta trying to win even while dropping payroll. The O's offseason didn't qualify as reloading, but it wouldn't have been a huge stretch for them to finish the 2018 season with a record around .500. It's what the O's have done for years; they don't go all in or reload in any realistic sense.
Instead, well, the Orioles are terrible and almost nothing has gone according to plan (whatever that plan happened to be). There are many reasons why the O's are so bad, but one of them is that Cobb has not been any kind of solution.
Because he signed so late in the offseason, Cobb did not make his Orioles debut until April 14. He allowed seven earned runs that day. In his next two starts, he allowed five earned runs in each game. In the outings since, he's sprinkled in a handful of useful starts, but then again in his last two outings, he allowed 14 combined runs. In his final season in Baltimore, Ubaldo Jimenez posted a 6.81 ERA and a 5.54 FIP in 142-plus innings. In 63 innings this season, Cobb has an ERA of 7.14 and a FIP of 5.22.
It's not all bad for Cobb, but a lot of it is. He's not missing bats; his K% of 14.8% would be the lowest of his career. This would also be the third straight year in which his percentage of swinging strikes has dropped. His HR/FB rate of 18.8% would easily be a career high. On the other hand, Cobb's BB% of 5.5% would be the lowest of his career, but that isn't doing much to help him.
The Orioles surely hoped to get something close to the 2017 version of Cobb, when he threw almost 180 innings with a 3.66 ERA and a 4.16 FIP. Just glancing at Cobb's 2018 numbers, it's easy to focus on the .364 BABIP. For much of his career, he's finished somewhere between .279 and .295. He could be dealing with some bad luck, but not as much as you'd think. This season, Cobb has allowed harder contact to opposing batters:
2017: 87.8 avg. exit velocity
2018: 89.6 avg. exit velocity
That jump of about 2 mph is hardly insignificant. Cobb has been hit hard early and often:
2017: .304 wOBA, .328 xwOBA
2018: .405 wOBA, .368 xwOBA
Last year, Cobb's wOBA allowed was 101 points lower, and his expected wOBA was 40 points better. He's still probably not 7+ ERA bad (that's more like Chris Tillman territory), but it's not like he's some great pitcher who is having a few extra singles drop in. Even a .368 wOBA would put him near the bottom group of pitchers.
So what's going on? The hope at the time of the signing was that Cobb would be able to throw "The Thing," his nasty split-changeup, more often. Before his 2018 debut, he was excited about the pitch's potential:
"It was the best it has been this last start I had. I’m really feeling confident in it. Going through that phase early last year, I lost the confidence in it. That was a main reason I shied away from it. Once you start having that success with it and seeing the action you are looking for, that confidence builds up very quickly. That is key on all your pitches, but with a changeup, a feel pitch, you have to have that consistent arm speed and aggressiveness you have on the other pitches. Having that confidence come back is going to be huge."Unfortunately, Cobb is still shying away from it. At his peak he was throwing the pitch more than a third of the time. Last season, he threw it 14.4%. This year, he's throwing it only slightly more: 16.5% of the time.
Now, many hitters are sitting back and looking for the two pitches Cobb throws most often: a low-90s sinker and a curveball. When they make contact, they're doing more damage:
2017: .174 ISO on sinkers; .084 ISO on curveballs
2018: .243 ISO on sinkers; .300 ISO on curveballs
Still, Cobb didn't throw the split-change much last season either, and he got away with it. So it's not surprising to discover that he hasn't located his pitches well this season. In 2017, he often stayed in on right-handers and away from lefties:
Opposing batters aren't chasing Cobb's out-of-zone pitches as much. He's never had a chase rate below 30%, and so far this season, it's 28.6%.
Before Cobb had Tommy John surgery in 2015, he was able to throw his split-change while getting very little vertical movement. The difference in vertical movement isn't that much different than his sinker, his fastball of choice. Since then, things just haven't been the same, and it's not surprising that he doesn't have much confidence in the pitch.
There's also very little chance that Cobb has much confidence in the defense behind him. As noted above, he has been far from great, but the Orioles have some awful defenders. The club's outfield defense is absolutely brutal, and the O's are rated the worst in both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating. That's at least a part of the reason why opposing hitters have a .324 BABIP against the O's, the highest mark in the majors. (The next closest is the Rockies at .310.)
Like many of the team's players, all the Orioles can do with Cobb is hope he gets things together. No team would want him right now, but even if they did, Cobb could block a trade to any club this season. From 2019-2021, he can block trades to 10 teams per year. It's possible he could improve and then be shipped out of town in one of the next few years, but for now, the O's just need him to pitch better.
It may be a tall task for someone who essentially only has two pitches to be anything more than a back-end starter. The O's were hoping for much more, but an ERA below 6 doesn't sound so bad at the moment.
Photo: Keith Allison. Stats (as of June 19) via FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Brooks Baseball. Contract info via Cot's.
18 June 2018
Finally, The Orioles Earned Their 20th Win
It's not all bad in Birdland. I mean, it's almost entirely bad -- but it isn't 100% bad! That's because yesterday, with a 10-4 win over the Marlins, the Orioles earned their 20th win! That elusive 20th win, which the O's had been trying to earn for 10 days, means that now every major league team has at least 20 wins.
Every other team has 22 wins or more, but let's not focus on that for the moment. It's time to rejoice! The big hero was Jace Peterson, who knocked in four runs on two extra-base hits. In the second inning, he put the Orioles on the board with a pair of runs by crushing a two-run double:
At the end of this clip, a fan unfortunately misses the ball when it hops right to him off of the warning track. It's a shame, of course, but it also serves as a tip of the cap to how the Orioles have played defense this season. That's an impressive display of fan loyalty.
In the third inning, Mark Trumbo knocked in a run with a long "double" that Derek Dietrich clearly misplayed at the wall:
Nope, I can't imagine why that play should have been ruled an error, but the Orioles will obviously take any break they can get.
With the Orioles up 6-1 in the fifth inning, it was time for Peterson to again make his mark:
That no-doubter was Peterson's 16th career homer and his first in 2018. That put the O's up 8-1, and Trumbo would add a solo shot to right field in the seventh.
Still, before that Trumbo homer, the Marlins cut into the lead thanks to two home runs from Justin Bour off of Dylan Bundy. In the top of the seventh and the score 8-4, the Marlins loaded the bases with no outs against Miguel Castro (two singles and a walk). Mychal Givens took over for Castro, getting a strikeout and then a fly out to left field that did not advance the runners. With Bour due up again, Buck Showalter summoned Tanner Scott. Scott did the job, getting Bour looking on a nasty slider:
Bour had no chance, and the Marlins' best chance for a comeback was neutralized.
The Orioles' 10 runs were the most they've scored in a game since they somehow put up 17 on the Rays in mid-May. They put runs up on the board, pitched well enough, and played adequate defense. It was a welcome sight.
Who knows how many more times this season the Orioles are going to reach a multiple of 10 in the win column? Maybe two more times? Can the Orioles reach 50 wins? I sure hope so! But for now, one thing's for sure: The Orioles cannot win fewer than 20 games in 2018. Take a bow, fellas.
Every other team has 22 wins or more, but let's not focus on that for the moment. It's time to rejoice! The big hero was Jace Peterson, who knocked in four runs on two extra-base hits. In the second inning, he put the Orioles on the board with a pair of runs by crushing a two-run double:
At the end of this clip, a fan unfortunately misses the ball when it hops right to him off of the warning track. It's a shame, of course, but it also serves as a tip of the cap to how the Orioles have played defense this season. That's an impressive display of fan loyalty.
In the third inning, Mark Trumbo knocked in a run with a long "double" that Derek Dietrich clearly misplayed at the wall:
Nope, I can't imagine why that play should have been ruled an error, but the Orioles will obviously take any break they can get.
With the Orioles up 6-1 in the fifth inning, it was time for Peterson to again make his mark:
That no-doubter was Peterson's 16th career homer and his first in 2018. That put the O's up 8-1, and Trumbo would add a solo shot to right field in the seventh.
Still, before that Trumbo homer, the Marlins cut into the lead thanks to two home runs from Justin Bour off of Dylan Bundy. In the top of the seventh and the score 8-4, the Marlins loaded the bases with no outs against Miguel Castro (two singles and a walk). Mychal Givens took over for Castro, getting a strikeout and then a fly out to left field that did not advance the runners. With Bour due up again, Buck Showalter summoned Tanner Scott. Scott did the job, getting Bour looking on a nasty slider:
Bour had no chance, and the Marlins' best chance for a comeback was neutralized.
The Orioles' 10 runs were the most they've scored in a game since they somehow put up 17 on the Rays in mid-May. They put runs up on the board, pitched well enough, and played adequate defense. It was a welcome sight.
Who knows how many more times this season the Orioles are going to reach a multiple of 10 in the win column? Maybe two more times? Can the Orioles reach 50 wins? I sure hope so! But for now, one thing's for sure: The Orioles cannot win fewer than 20 games in 2018. Take a bow, fellas.
15 June 2018
What Happened To Jonathan Schoop?
In 2017, Jonathan Schoop had a career year at the plate. His numbers -- .293/.338/.503, .355 wOBA, 121 wRC+, 5.2 BB%, 3.8 fWAR, 5.2 bWAR -- were all career highs across the board. There were even some questions about whether Schoop had surpassed the offensive skills of superstar Manny Machado.
No one is asking those questions now. Schoop, who missed about a month with an oblique injury earlier in the season, has yet to get going. In 47 games and 208 plate appearances, he has posted a .209/.246/.347 line and a 57 wRC+. Schoop has typically been up and down from year to year -- his wRC+ each year from 2014-2017, respectively, is 64, 113, 99, and 121 -- but him being this far down is rather shocking.
So what's happening at the plate? Unlike some of the very best hitters in the game, Schoop doesn't routinely make hard contact. But he's made that work at times in the past, and he did improve slightly last year. So far in 2018, he's been noticeably worse:
2016: 87.3 avg EV (t-235), 4.9 barrels/PA (t-142)
2017: 87.8 avg EV (t-158), 5.0 barrels/PA (t-136)
2018: 85.0 avg EV (t-222), 3.0 barrels/PA (t-195)
Min. 100 batted ball events
Schoop is making less hard contact, and he's barreling the ball less. That means the ball isn't traveling as far:
2016: 163 feet (t-248)
2017: 169 feet (t-222)
2018: 155 feet (t-194)
Min. 100 batted ball events
More hitters will reach that 100 batted ball threshold, so if Schoop's struggles continue, his rank will continue to drop.
Schoop has a .241 BABIP at the moment, which is low for him (he's been over .305 in each of the last three seasons). But, again, he's not hitting the ball as hard or as far; he's not simply dealing with some bad luck. Based on expected wOBA, which focuses on a player's amount and quality of contact, Schoop may even be outperforming his already low .256 wOBA:
2016: .298 xwOBA
2017: .334 xwOBA
2018: .241 xwOBA
Min. 100 plate appearances
That is alarming. Schoop's xwOBA is fifth worst among all hitters with 100 plate appearances. Schoop is even just behind Craig Gentry, who's at .242, and Chris Davis, at .270.
Quickly, let's move to plate discipline. Schoop posting a BB% over 5% last year was stunning, but unfortunately, it hasn't continued. He's back down to 3.4%. After posting career lows in chase rate (35.9%) and swing rate (52.3%) last season, those numbers have jumped back up. He's swinging at pitches out of the zone 38.7% of the time and swinging 56.2% of the time overall. But as pitchers had been throwing him fewer pitches in the zone from 2015-2017 -- 47.9 Zone% to 45.5% to 43.4% -- he's being challenged more now: 45.3%. Opposing pitchers aren't as afraid, and rightfully so (and they're still throwing him plenty of fastballs).
When a player is struggling this much, usually there are questions about his health. Schoop didn't seem to rush back from his oblique injury in April, and from all accounts, he's not hurt. That doesn't mean he's 100%, of course, but many players rarely are during such a long season.
Because of Schoop's struggles, the Orioles are stuck in a difficult position. There is no question that the Orioles must rebuild, but as you'd expect, they are hesitant to trade anyone who is under team control beyond this season. Really, they're hesitant to trade anyone, so the odds of them trading someone like Dylan Bundy, Kevin Gausman, Mychal Givens, Schoop, etc. are minimal.
At the same time, is Schoop really someone the O's should extend and build around? He's not a star, but he has shown that he's a good, though inconsistent, player. But he also may have to move off of second base in the next couple years as his range gets worse. If you do think Schoop is someone to build around, maybe this isn't the worst time to talk extension. But things don't always work like that, and who knows if Schoop would be willing to make a deal or settle for less knowing that he's better than this. Maybe he'd rather hope for a bounce-back later this season and in 2019, right before becoming a free agent.
There's almost no way that Schoop is this bad now, but his incredibly slow start can't be attributed to being unfortunate. He'll never be in Chris Davis territory because he doesn't have that type of contract situation, but things don't always have to get better just because you think they should. Hopefully Schoop starts barreling the ball more and figuring things out. The Orioles really need him to.
Photo: Keith Allison. Stats via FanGraphs and Baseball Savant
13 June 2018
Current State Of The Orioles: Really Bad
The Orioles have so many problems that it's exhausting to think about. But, if you want to keep things simple, you can group them into two main categories (without even getting into anything coach or front office related). First, the major league team is in shambles. At 19-47, the Orioles have three fewer wins than any other team. Only one other team, the Royals, has been outscored by more runs (-114 vs. -112). The Orioles are a very bad baseball team that struggles across the board. It's hard to watch.
For reference, the 1988 Orioles (final record: 54-107) earned their 19th win on game 69 (to make them 19-50). They won their 20th game on game 72. This year's Orioles got their 19th win on game 60 (to make them 19-41). Through game 65, they're still sitting on 19 wins.
That leads to the second main issue: the future. The Orioles are not without promising talent in their farm system; however, many of their interesting prospects are not close to ready for the majors. The system also lacks high-end talent. In February, Austin Hays, Chance Sisco, and Ryan Mountcastle all landed somewhere on the notable national prospect lists. Hays was the only one of the three to be named on all five (MLB.com, Baseball America, Keith Law, Baseball Prospectus, and FanGraphs).
Since then, Sisco has graduated to the majors, and while he's held his own in semi-regular work, it would be a stretch to say he looks like anything more than a decent player. He doesn't look like a star. That's not bad, of course; it's just not great.
On Monday, FanGraphs released their updated top 131 prospect list. In February, Hays placed 90th on the list, and that was it for the Orioles. There is not a single O's prospect on this new version. Hays has dropped off entirely because he's struggling this year at Double-A Bowie, with a batting line of .224/.259/.374 (72 wRC+).
Now, the FanGraphs list isn't everything. No prospect list is the end-all, be-all. Mountcastle and maybe another prospect could still land on one or more of the national lists (he was on three last time). But Hays falling back to earth is disappointing and untimely, yet it shows just how much more talent the Orioles need in their farm system. No single player is going to solve this mess. Some things that are happening in the lower levels of the O's system are encouraging -- with, for example, Ryan McKenna, Michael Baumann, Zac Lowther, and others -- but it's not enough.
Almost everyone on this current O's roster should be a trade chip. The Orioles need to do whatever they can to add youth and talent nearly everywhere in the minors. Players that are close to major league ready would be preferred, but teams aren't just giving those prospects away. The O's need high-ceiling talent. They should be able to get a couple of those types by dealing away Manny Machado, Zach Britton, and others. Every possibility should be explored.
In the meantime, enjoy everything Machado, Britton, Adam Jones, and others do in an Orioles uniform before they're gone. And don't take a competitive game, home run, or solid defensive game for granted. One day things will get better for the O's, but it might be a while. Settle in.
For reference, the 1988 Orioles (final record: 54-107) earned their 19th win on game 69 (to make them 19-50). They won their 20th game on game 72. This year's Orioles got their 19th win on game 60 (to make them 19-41). Through game 65, they're still sitting on 19 wins.
That leads to the second main issue: the future. The Orioles are not without promising talent in their farm system; however, many of their interesting prospects are not close to ready for the majors. The system also lacks high-end talent. In February, Austin Hays, Chance Sisco, and Ryan Mountcastle all landed somewhere on the notable national prospect lists. Hays was the only one of the three to be named on all five (MLB.com, Baseball America, Keith Law, Baseball Prospectus, and FanGraphs).
Since then, Sisco has graduated to the majors, and while he's held his own in semi-regular work, it would be a stretch to say he looks like anything more than a decent player. He doesn't look like a star. That's not bad, of course; it's just not great.
On Monday, FanGraphs released their updated top 131 prospect list. In February, Hays placed 90th on the list, and that was it for the Orioles. There is not a single O's prospect on this new version. Hays has dropped off entirely because he's struggling this year at Double-A Bowie, with a batting line of .224/.259/.374 (72 wRC+).
Now, the FanGraphs list isn't everything. No prospect list is the end-all, be-all. Mountcastle and maybe another prospect could still land on one or more of the national lists (he was on three last time). But Hays falling back to earth is disappointing and untimely, yet it shows just how much more talent the Orioles need in their farm system. No single player is going to solve this mess. Some things that are happening in the lower levels of the O's system are encouraging -- with, for example, Ryan McKenna, Michael Baumann, Zac Lowther, and others -- but it's not enough.
Almost everyone on this current O's roster should be a trade chip. The Orioles need to do whatever they can to add youth and talent nearly everywhere in the minors. Players that are close to major league ready would be preferred, but teams aren't just giving those prospects away. The O's need high-ceiling talent. They should be able to get a couple of those types by dealing away Manny Machado, Zach Britton, and others. Every possibility should be explored.
In the meantime, enjoy everything Machado, Britton, Adam Jones, and others do in an Orioles uniform before they're gone. And don't take a competitive game, home run, or solid defensive game for granted. One day things will get better for the O's, but it might be a while. Settle in.
08 June 2018
The Orioles' Outfield Defense Is Brutal
If you've had a hard time watching the 19-42 Orioles this year, you're not alone. The starting pitching has been picking things up a bit as of late, but overall, the O's have been bad in nearly every phase of the game. That includes managing, with some weird bullpen decisions by Buck Showalter in last night's loss.
One thing that's been particularly frustrating is the total collapse of defense in the outfield. This post will focus on the outfield, but the team's defensive deficiencies in the infield shouldn't be ignored. There have been issues all around the diamond; even Manny Machado, who appears to be more comfortable at shortstop after an up-and-down April, still has a -9.8 UZR/150 and -8 DRS. I'm not sure how much stock you should put into less than a half season's worth of defensive data, but plenty of other O's defenders have been just as bad or worse than that.
Now, the Orioles haven't been good defensively in the outfield for a while. Let's look at the O's collective outfield defense the last three years (with MLB rank):
2016: -9.7 UZR/150 (30th), -51 DRS (30th), -18 OAA (27th)
2017: -6.6 UZR/150 (29th), -15 DRS (23rd), -15 OAA (28th)
2018: -9.3 UZR/150 (30th), -24 DRS (30th), -17 OAA (30th)
If you're not familiar with OAA, it stands for outs above average, which is a range-based metric that takes into account plays made and their catch probability. (For a more in-depth look, read this.)
The 2018 club's outfield defense looks very much like the 2016 version, and it could end up worse. It's not that surprising, though. Adam Jones has been the one outfield mainstay, and several underwhelming outfielders have filled in at the corners. In 2016, Mark Trumbo and Hyun Soo Kim played the second- and third-most innings in the O's outfield, respectively. In 2017, Trey Mancini had the second-most outfield innings, followed by Seth Smith. And so far in 2018, Mancini is again second, followed by Anthony Santander (now in the minors) and Craig Gentry. Unlike almost all the others, Gentry is a plus (or at least above-average) defender, with a +5 DRS and 8.8 UZR/150 this season (obligatory small sample mention).
Average-to-above-average outfielders like Gentry and Joey Rickard don't hit enough to find themselves in anything more than a fourth or fifth outfielder role, which means Mancini and Trumbo are still getting innings in the outfield. It's no secret that Trumbo is a terrible outfielder, but while Mancini was OK at times last year, he's been on a similar level of bad as Trumbo this year, and he finds himself in left field almost every game. But again, no one should be shocked when Mancini and Trumbo, both 1B/DH types, struggle in the outfield. What do you think would happen with Pedro Alvarez in the outfield? Oh, right.
Now... on to Adam Jones. If you're one of the fans who doesn't want anything negative to be said about Jones, no matter what, this is where you might want to stop reading. Jones has been great both on and off the field in his time in Baltimore, but he's not above criticism.
As you'd expect, Showalter is hesitant to rebuke Jones for frustrating outfield play. Nevertheless, his regression in center field is worth discussing. Here is how Jones has rated in outs above average the past few years:
2016: +3 OAA (t-35th among all OF)
2017: -7 OAA (t-110 among all OF)
2018: -6 OAA (t-46th among all OF out of 50)
Min. 100 opportunities
And here is how he rates in DRS and UZR data:
2016: -10 DRS, -5.6 UZR/150
2017: -12 DRS, -14.4 UZR/150
2018: -15 DRS, -19.0 UZR/150
If your eyes gloss over those numbers, then look at a couple of misplays from the O's recent series against the Yankees. Here is the first, a misread on a line drive hit in front of him:
And here is the second, which apparently had a catch probability of 90% (an O's reporter shared that figure at the time, but I can't seem to find it now):
I'll spare you from GIFs of Mancini and Trumbo running after fly balls.
As always, things are complicated. Except for a few seasons, Jones has never really fared well according to advanced defensive metrics. But Jones is almost always in the lineup, and he frequently plays hurt. And there's been some drama surrounding how deep Jones plays; Jim Palmer used to mention it every so often during telecasts. Jones finally acquiesced to playing a deeper center field before last season, though he wasn't thrilled about it. This Q&A with Jones by Jon Meoli of The Baltimore Sun gave fans some insight into Jones's stance on the whole thing and how a lack of communication between Jones and the front office played a large role.
One positive for Jones right now is that he has a 108 wRC+ and has been one of the O's better hitters (admittedly, a low bar). But, in a perfect world, he wouldn't still be in center field. He isn't as fast as he once was, and he doesn't always get great reads or take the best routes. But over the last several years, the O's have struggled to bring in outfielders who could both hit and field well. That's a big problem, and Jones has had to try and cover more ground because of that. Mancini and Trumbo playing so often in the outfield isn't Jones's fault, but miscues on plays like the ones above are.
The Orioles aren't awful because of just one thing; everything is a factor. Even if the O's had a wonderful collection of defensive wizards in the outfield, the team would still be bad. And yet, outfield defense and speed are two things the Orioles need more of, and they can't continue to rely on using first basemen in the outfield. These guys aren't good enough hitters to get away with that.
The hope is that the team's next wave of outfielders, led by Austin Hays in one corner, Cedric Mullins likely in center field, and perhaps DJ Stewart and/or Ryan Mountcastle in another corner, will become solid contributors with the glove and the bat, while providing much-needed youth and speed (the speed part referring to Mullins and Hays). Mullins, who's in Triple-A Norfolk after a recent promotion, is the closest to the majors and very well may take over for Jones if/when he departs. For now, O's fans will have to keep dealing with substandard play in the outfield.
Photo: Keith Allison. Stats via FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
06 June 2018
What's Going On With Trey Mancini?
First, a few things should be noted. Overall, Mancini's current batting line is .229/.307/.369 (85 wRC+). That's not very good, especially for a player like Mancini who needs to hit to have value, but it's almost comical how much better that batting line is than Chris Davis's current one: .154/.234/.239 (28 wRC+). But while hope for Davis diminishes every day, there's still plenty of hope for Mancini.
Mancini also suffered an injury in late April that may still be affecting his play. On April 20, he ran a long way towards a foul ball in left field. Not only did he not catch the ball, but on his slide, his knee crashed into the bottom of the brick wall where the padding does not extend. He was in clear pain and was forced to leave the game early. But he did not go on the disabled list, and after pinch-hitting on the 23rd, he found his name in the starting lineup on the 25th.
It's simplistic to look at things this way, but here are Mancini's numbers before and after the knee injury:
Before: 111 wRC+ (91 PA)
After: 69 wRC+ (150 PA)
Source: FanGraphs
But again, that doesn't tell the whole story. Despite his struggles, he's still hitting the ball hard (and harder than last season):
2017: 88.6 avg. exit velocity, 7.0 barrels/PA
2018: 91.1 avg. exit velocity, 8.3 barrels/PA
Source: Baseball Savant
Oddly enough, Mancini had a BABIP of .352 last season, but just .269 this season. But while he's making more solid contact, he isn't hitting the ball as far:
2017: 158 avg. distance
2018: 146 avg. distance
Source: Baseball Savant
In 2017, Mancini had a groundball percentage of 51% and a flyball percentage of 29.7%. This year, he has a GB% of 55.2% and a FB% of 26.4%. When someone thinks of Mancini, they most likely think of line drives and power to both gaps, but his isolated power is down from .195 last season to .140 now.
Still, Mancini's plate discipline has improved and he's chasing fewer pitches out of the zone. And even though the lack of power is concerning, his batted ball profile and number of strikeouts and walks suggest he's been rather unlucky:
2017 xwOBA: .342 (actual .349)
2018 xwOBA: .365 (actual .296)
Source: Baseball Savant
Of all players with at least 100 plate appearances, his expected wOBA and actual wOBA difference of -.069 is tied for 11th worst. Again, that suggests Mancini has been unfortunate, and yet Davis is also ninth at -.073. Even if both players have been hitting into some bad luck, that doesn't mean things will necessarily improve (and as a reminder, xwOBA is better used in a descriptive way, not a predictive one).
About a week ago, Mancini was removed from the leadoff role. The hope was that batting lower in the order would ease some of the pressure off of him, but his numbers haven't started ticking back up yet. Unfortunately, with Mancini struggling, Jace Peterson and Joey Rickard received at-bats at the leadoff spot, which is something that no one really wants to see. Last night, Mancini returned to the top of the lineup.
It remains to be seen where Mancini will be placed in the lineup, but what matters is that he starts hitting again. The knee discomfort hasn't helped his play at the plate or in the field, but it's also hard to know just how much of a factor it's been.
A couple weeks after the injury, Mancini did this:
About a month after the injury, he did this:
The first, an outside pitch being deposited to right field. The second, an inside fastball pulled just over the wall in left field.
Mancini still has power. Maybe he is simply having good and bad days with his knee, and it's something that won't stop being an issue until he gets regular rest. We don't really know for sure.
What we do know is that, because of roster construction and Davis apparently being an immovable object at first base, Mancini is often forced to play out of position in the outfield. And while he's undoubtedly trying his best and is very hard on himself, he should be playing first base or designated hitter. We also know that while nothing is for certain, what he's done so far this year suggests that he's hit into some tough luck at times and could see more batted balls find open space instead of opponents' gloves. There's plenty to panic about when it comes to the Orioles, but Mancini isn't one of those things... yet.
Photo: Keith Allison. Stats via FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
04 June 2018
O's Youth Movement Is Slow, But Tanner Scott Is An Early Part Of It
It's June 4th, and the Orioles are 24 games under .500. Understandably, many fans are frustrated, and they're tired of seeing many of the same players' names on the lineup card -- especially the underachieving and expendable ones. They're ready for a youth movement.
But one thing about a youth movement is a team can't just force it. Just because a team is young and interesting doesn't mean it's going to be good -- or, what matters more, good for the young players. One of the worst things a team can do is promote a bunch of players who aren't ready simply because frustration is mounting. The Orioles need to get younger and more athletic, but more importantly, they need to get better.
Unfortunately, the O's don't have a lot of players in the minor leagues who are close to the majors. Austin Wynns recently took Andrew Susac's place on the O's active roster, meaning the O's two main catchers are both rookies. It would be hard for Wynns to be worse than how Caleb Joseph and Susac have performed this season, and the hope is he performs adequately in his first dose of major league action and could be a fit as the backup.
But Wynns is also 27 years old (only a year younger than Susac). Right now, the most interesting names on Triple-A Norfolk's roster are the recently promoted Cedric Mullins, DJ Stewart, and maybe Yefry Ramirez. Almost everyone else who's intriguing is in Double-A Bowie or lower. That's not a bad thing, necessarily, but many of them still have more work to do and improvements to make.
It isn't time for the much-anticipated youth movement, but that doesn't mean the current roster is without youth and talent (not counting Manny Machado, of course, who is somehow only 25). Chance Sisco and Miguel Castro are both 23 and interesting, and David Hess, 24, is giving the Orioles innings and outs in his first major league work. And then there's Tanner Scott, who's only 23 and is already one of the O's best relievers.
With Scott, who many teams often asked about in potential trades, hoping to pry him away, the velocity has always been there. He can reach triple digits with his fastball, which is something the O's don't really have a lot of. In January, John Sickels of Minor League Ball said that Scott "may have best left-handed fastball in the minors." The hope was that he could control it. In 2016, he walked nearly 20% of opposing batters between High-A Frederick and Bowie. At Bowie in 2017, he struck out 30% of batters in 69 innings while lowering his BB% to 16% (with a 2.22 ERA and 3.17 FIP). He earned a brief call-up at the end of 2017, then was promoted to Triple-A Norfolk to start 2018. In 10 innings, he didn't allow a run while posting a 28.6 K% and a 14.3 BB%. His control has improved.
Because of pitcher injuries and roster needs, Scott is already on his third stint with the Orioles in 2018 alone. Most recently, he was recalled on May 9th, and with Zach Britton and Darren O'Day on the mend, there's always a chance he could be sent back to the minors. That's the way it goes for anyone who has options remaining. Still, Scott has more than earned his place in a bullpen that's struggled mightily at times. Scott's 4.70 ERA in 15.1 innings pitched doesn't do him justice. Among all O's relievers, Scott's FIP (3.25) is fifth best. His 33.3 K% is the best, and his 9.5 BB% is fourth best. And among all major league relievers with at least 10 innings pitched, Scott's K% is tied for 20th best. (O'Day is tied for 39th and Mychal Givens is 49th.)
The O's need more pitchers with swing-and-miss stuff, and Scott certainly has that. Even though he has a change-up (which is a work in progress), he really only throws two pitches: a four-seamer and a slider -- and he's throwing the slider more than ever this year. A pitcher could do worse than a high-90s fastball and a slider with sharp movement. In one brutal assignment over a week ago, Scott was summoned to deal with a bases loaded, no outs jam in the sixth inning against the Rays. He responded by striking out the three batters he faced, with the last batter, Joey Wendle, looking completely helpless:
See how Wendle drops the bat at the end there? He knows he had no chance on such a nasty off-speed pitch. That's how good Scott can be. He also followed that up by throwing a scoreless inning the next game (though with no strikeouts), in his first time pitching in consecutive games in the majors. That's obviously key for any reliever who should be used in high-leverage situations.
But he's still learning. In Friday's loss to the Yankees, Scott hung a slider to Aaron Judge. It's a bad idea to hang a slider to Judge, and he hit the ball a long way to left field for a towering solo home run. But Scott didn't get rattled. Before the Judge home run, he struck out Brett Gardner. After the homer, he struck out Greg Bird and Giancarlo Stanton. Not bad!
I'd show more GIFs of Scott's strikeouts this season, but there aren't any others besides Wendle's on MLB.com right now. No matter what, the O's have to like what they've seen from Scott so far, and there will surely be more clips to choose from in the near future. He looks like someone who could be a mainstay in a major league bullpen for a while, and anyone looking for positives on this Orioles team shouldn't overlook Scott.
Photo: Keith Allison. Stats via FanGraphs and Brooks Baseball.
31 May 2018
Orioles' 2018 Rotation Has Been Close To The Awful 2017 Version
In early February, while the Orioles were mostly sitting on their hands (along with lots of other teams) and free agent collusion was a popular topic, I said this about the Orioles' rotation options:
About a month later, the Orioles surprisingly added Alex Cobb to the mix, and the O's had their starting five. Cobb signed late and would need some time to get ready, but the hope was that when he joined the team, he'd give them a boost. As we all know now, that was not the case.
The addition of Cobb added some excitement -- even if the O's starting rotation still didn't project to be very good -- and even though it seems impossible now, the O's kinda/sorta looked like the same .500-ish team that, if things broke right, could stay in the hunt for a playoff spot. But, almost since day one, the Orioles have rated poorly in nearly every phase of the game. And, unexpectedly, the 2018 starting rotation has been basically the same level of awful as the 2017 version.
Let's look at some numbers. Here's how the starting rotations from the past two years stack up:
2017: 5.70 ERA (15th in AL), 5.23 FIP, 19.4 K%, 9.4 BB%, 41.5 GB%, 35.0 Hard-hit%
2018: 5.53 ERA (14th in AL), 5.17 FIP, 19.3 K%, 8.0 BB%, 42.3 GB%, 35.2 Hard-hit%
Obviously the 2018 season isn't even half over, so things could improve. And, if anyone doesn't know, the 2017 O's rotation ERA of 5.70 is the worst in franchise history. But this rotation is still pretty close to that group and is really only better in walk rate and groundball rate.
But wait! Let's adjust for the change in offensive production. In 2017, the average AL team scored 4.71 runs per game. So far in 2018, AL teams average 4.50 runs per game. The average AL starter ERA in 2017 was 4.54; the average AL starter ERA in 2018 is currently 4.32.
That changes things, and it leads to the following:
Orioles SP in 2017: 129 ERA-, 115 FIP-
Orioles SP in 2018: 130 ERA-, 120 FIP-
Remember that with ERA- and FIP-, "100 is the league average and each point above or below 100 represents a percent above or below league average," so the lower, the better. That means that through about one-third of the season, the O's rotation has somehow performed slightly worse than last year's rotation.
At this point, you may be wondering if the O's rotation has been better in May, after Tillman was jettisoned to Sarasota. Tillman, after all, made five starts in April and two in May. But, nope, that's not the case:
Orioles SP in March/April: 5.34 ERA, 5.00 FIP in March/April
Orioles SP in May: 5.73 ERA, 5.35 FIP in May
Again, there's still time for improvement. June is about to begin, and it would be a surprise if the O's dealt away any of their starters. David Hess is also getting his shot, and he deserves an extended stay.
But one thing that can be said is the O's are not getting the most out of their starting pitchers. Gausman and Bundy are fine, but they're supposed to be better than that. Cobb was supposed to come in and provide legitimate top-of-the-rotation skills, and he has an ERA close to 7. Cashner has been OK, but nothing more than that.
The Orioles did not get the most out of Ubaldo Jimenez, or Wade Miley, or Jeremy Hellickson, or Yovani Gallardo, or... you get the point. Rotation signings haven't worked. Many prospects haven't developed enough or taken necessary steps. Fringe rotation options have been traded or discarded and gone on to find success elsewhere. International money is not being spent on pitching arms with potential. One person alone can't simply be blamed for starting rotations this bad.
As stated above, the Orioles have a whole lot of issues. They need to get better in many categories. They need to get younger and better. Unfortunately, that still includes the starting rotation, because the pitching woes persist.
Stats via FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference
That was when, at least for a period of time, Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman were the O's top two starters and there wasn't much behind them. A little over a week later, Bundy and Gausman started to get some reinforcements. Andrew Cashner signed on February 15, and Chris Tillman signed on February 19. Cashner's arrival slotted in somewhere between fine and meh (if there's a difference), and Tillman's below that. But they had two things going for them: they were starting pitchers who had performed well in the past, and their names weren't Ubaldo Jimenez and Wade Miley.Would the O's rotation as currently constructed (whatever that is) perform worse than last year's collective 5.70 ERA? I'd say yes.— Matt Kremnitzer (@mattkremnitzer) February 6, 2018
About a month later, the Orioles surprisingly added Alex Cobb to the mix, and the O's had their starting five. Cobb signed late and would need some time to get ready, but the hope was that when he joined the team, he'd give them a boost. As we all know now, that was not the case.
The addition of Cobb added some excitement -- even if the O's starting rotation still didn't project to be very good -- and even though it seems impossible now, the O's kinda/sorta looked like the same .500-ish team that, if things broke right, could stay in the hunt for a playoff spot. But, almost since day one, the Orioles have rated poorly in nearly every phase of the game. And, unexpectedly, the 2018 starting rotation has been basically the same level of awful as the 2017 version.
Let's look at some numbers. Here's how the starting rotations from the past two years stack up:
2017: 5.70 ERA (15th in AL), 5.23 FIP, 19.4 K%, 9.4 BB%, 41.5 GB%, 35.0 Hard-hit%
2018: 5.53 ERA (14th in AL), 5.17 FIP, 19.3 K%, 8.0 BB%, 42.3 GB%, 35.2 Hard-hit%
Obviously the 2018 season isn't even half over, so things could improve. And, if anyone doesn't know, the 2017 O's rotation ERA of 5.70 is the worst in franchise history. But this rotation is still pretty close to that group and is really only better in walk rate and groundball rate.
But wait! Let's adjust for the change in offensive production. In 2017, the average AL team scored 4.71 runs per game. So far in 2018, AL teams average 4.50 runs per game. The average AL starter ERA in 2017 was 4.54; the average AL starter ERA in 2018 is currently 4.32.
That changes things, and it leads to the following:
Orioles SP in 2017: 129 ERA-, 115 FIP-
Orioles SP in 2018: 130 ERA-, 120 FIP-
Remember that with ERA- and FIP-, "100 is the league average and each point above or below 100 represents a percent above or below league average," so the lower, the better. That means that through about one-third of the season, the O's rotation has somehow performed slightly worse than last year's rotation.
At this point, you may be wondering if the O's rotation has been better in May, after Tillman was jettisoned to Sarasota. Tillman, after all, made five starts in April and two in May. But, nope, that's not the case:
Orioles SP in March/April: 5.34 ERA, 5.00 FIP in March/April
Orioles SP in May: 5.73 ERA, 5.35 FIP in May
Again, there's still time for improvement. June is about to begin, and it would be a surprise if the O's dealt away any of their starters. David Hess is also getting his shot, and he deserves an extended stay.
But one thing that can be said is the O's are not getting the most out of their starting pitchers. Gausman and Bundy are fine, but they're supposed to be better than that. Cobb was supposed to come in and provide legitimate top-of-the-rotation skills, and he has an ERA close to 7. Cashner has been OK, but nothing more than that.
The Orioles did not get the most out of Ubaldo Jimenez, or Wade Miley, or Jeremy Hellickson, or Yovani Gallardo, or... you get the point. Rotation signings haven't worked. Many prospects haven't developed enough or taken necessary steps. Fringe rotation options have been traded or discarded and gone on to find success elsewhere. International money is not being spent on pitching arms with potential. One person alone can't simply be blamed for starting rotations this bad.
As stated above, the Orioles have a whole lot of issues. They need to get better in many categories. They need to get younger and better. Unfortunately, that still includes the starting rotation, because the pitching woes persist.
Stats via FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference
29 May 2018
There Are Still Some Positives For The Very Bad Orioles
The Orioles are a very bad baseball team, and there are more negatives than positives. But that doesn't mean there aren't any positives.
Let's find some to talk about:
If you're looking ahead to the future, you could get excited about this group of players who may make appearances later this season or in 2019: Hunter Harvey, DJ Stewart, Keegan Akin, Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays, and Ryan Mountcastle. There are others worth discussing in the lower levels of the O's system, but it's a group that could use more help.
The Orioles desperately need an infusion of young talent, and hopefully they begin to rebuild by using Machado and their other trade chips to replenish the farm system. There is no question that that's a necessity.
Let's find some to talk about:
- Manny Machado's 163 wRC+ is far and away the best on the Orioles. His numbers have taken a bit of a dip as of late, but his 2.5 fWAR is still nearly 2 wins better than his next closest teammates (Kevin Gausman and Mychal Givens with 0.7 fWAR).
- There are reasons to doubt Chance Sisco's catching abilities, but he's been decent so far and has posted an acceptable 91 wRC+ for a catcher (though with a .367 BABIP). The 37.5 K% is concerning, but hey, his 0.6 fWAR is second-best among O's position players.
- Danny Valencia (116 wRC+), Pedro Alvarez (110), Mark Trumbo (109), and Adam Jones (102) have been useful offensively. Let's not focus on their defense.
- Trey Mancini's 88 wRC+ doesn't look great now, but he was doing pretty well until his recent slump started. He's still one of the O's best hitters, although it does look like his knee is still bothering him.
- They've each had their ups and downs, but Dylan Bundy and Gausman have been the O's two best starting pitchers. Maybe, just maybe, they'll both put things together one day. At least they're healthy!
- In 13+ innings, Tanner Scott has struck out 30% of opposing batters (and he's limiting the walks). He's pitched better than his 4.73 ERA, with a FIP of 2.89.
- For a while, Richard Bleier was automatic and dominant, keeping an ERA below or around 1. Regression seems to have hit, and his ERA is now up to 2.33. Still, that's more than acceptable, and his FIP still sits at 2.71.
- After some early struggles, Brad Brach, Givens, and Miguel Castro seem to be back on track while the O's are without Darren O'Day and Zach Britton.
- Speaking of Britton, he'll begin his rehab assignment on Wednesday with Triple-A Norfolk. Getting a healthy and effective Britton back will help, and he could still be a trade chip.
- In three starts, David Hess has thrown 17.1 innings while posting a 4.15 ERA. The peripherals aren't great and the home runs are somewhat concerning, but he's been good enough -- and better than Chris Tillman, Alex Cobb, and Andrew Cashner in a small sample.
If you're looking ahead to the future, you could get excited about this group of players who may make appearances later this season or in 2019: Hunter Harvey, DJ Stewart, Keegan Akin, Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays, and Ryan Mountcastle. There are others worth discussing in the lower levels of the O's system, but it's a group that could use more help.
The Orioles desperately need an infusion of young talent, and hopefully they begin to rebuild by using Machado and their other trade chips to replenish the farm system. There is no question that that's a necessity.
24 May 2018
Chris Davis Has Been MLB's Worst Player In The Past Year
In a way, this is arbitrary. In a moment, I'm going to show you just how bad Chris Davis has been in the last calendar year. But in another way, it's not. In 2015, Davis was very good. In 2016, he was pretty good. In 2017, he was not good. And this season, he's been so bad that it's hard to comprehend. Davis has always been a streaky player, and a player's rise or fall does not always happen in a linear fashion. Still, Davis has been trending down for a while.
As a team, the Orioles are terrible. It's not all Davis's fault. But as the team's highest-paid player and worst-performing position player, well, the criticism is going to come and questions will rightfully be asked.
FanGraphs makes it easy to sort by calendar years, so these numbers are coming from there. In the last calendar year, Chris Davis has an fWAR of -2.0. Among all qualified players, that is the worst. It's not even that close, as the second worst, Albert Pujols, is at -1.5.
Let's just look at hitting then, because Davis is a first baseman, and first basemen are supposed to be good hitters. In the last calendar year, he has a wRC+ of 62. That's third worst, behind Rougned Odor (60) and Billy Hamilton (61). Odor is a second baseman; Hamilton is a center fielder. Those two positions aren't necessarily supposed to have great hitters. More numbers: Davis's batting average (.185) is the worst. His on-base percentage (.267) is second worst. His slugging percentage -- Davis is supposed to be a masher! -- is fourth worst (.349).
In 2018, the league average first baseman has posted a wRC+ of 112. In 2018, Davis has a wRC+ of 30. He already has an fWAR of -1.5 this season; the next two closest players are at -1.0.
Davis's offensive production has completely collapsed. There's not much to say other than to simply wonder: What in the world is going on? Well, that's not entirely true, because after last night's 11-1 loss to the White Sox, Jim Palmer of MASN wondered why Davis isn't trying different things and criticized his approach at the plate.
Here's a portion, courtesy of Jon Meoli of The Baltimore Sun:
As a team, the Orioles are terrible. It's not all Davis's fault. But as the team's highest-paid player and worst-performing position player, well, the criticism is going to come and questions will rightfully be asked.
FanGraphs makes it easy to sort by calendar years, so these numbers are coming from there. In the last calendar year, Chris Davis has an fWAR of -2.0. Among all qualified players, that is the worst. It's not even that close, as the second worst, Albert Pujols, is at -1.5.
Let's just look at hitting then, because Davis is a first baseman, and first basemen are supposed to be good hitters. In the last calendar year, he has a wRC+ of 62. That's third worst, behind Rougned Odor (60) and Billy Hamilton (61). Odor is a second baseman; Hamilton is a center fielder. Those two positions aren't necessarily supposed to have great hitters. More numbers: Davis's batting average (.185) is the worst. His on-base percentage (.267) is second worst. His slugging percentage -- Davis is supposed to be a masher! -- is fourth worst (.349).
In 2018, the league average first baseman has posted a wRC+ of 112. In 2018, Davis has a wRC+ of 30. He already has an fWAR of -1.5 this season; the next two closest players are at -1.0.
Davis's offensive production has completely collapsed. There's not much to say other than to simply wonder: What in the world is going on? Well, that's not entirely true, because after last night's 11-1 loss to the White Sox, Jim Palmer of MASN wondered why Davis isn't trying different things and criticized his approach at the plate.
Here's a portion, courtesy of Jon Meoli of The Baltimore Sun:
"You've got to throw that away, and you've got to make some adjustments. I don't see anything. I don't see a wider stance, I don't see a closed stance, I don't see him dropping my hands. I don't see anything. And we're seeing the results. He's just in a prolonged slump. You know, they say he works hard. Ehh. He told everybody in spring training that he worked with [hitting coach] Scott Coolbaugh. I asked Scott in spring training, I go, 'Hey, you must have really put in a lot of work.' He goes, 'We didn't work.' So, you know, I don't believe anything."There's more, so make sure to read the rest of Meoli's article. But also, here's part of Palmer's conversation with Rick Dempsey, and it includes a clip of Davis striking out and not following the ball across the plate.
Palmer's criticisms are justified, and he certainly isn't giving a ringing endorsement of Coolbaugh, either. So when Buck Showalter talks about how his players care a lot, and that they're working hard and trying a million things to get things back to how they were, maybe you don't just have to take his word for it. I'm sure the players care -- who really wants to fail over and over again, especially on a large stage? -- but to see Davis struggle this mightily makes you wonder what types of adjustments and fixes the O's are trying to make.Wow. Jim Palmer did not hold back his thoughts on Chris Davis tonight #Orioles pic.twitter.com/spVKORHw90— Tim Murray (@1TimMurray) May 24, 2018
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