The Orioles have so many problems that it's exhausting to think about. But, if you want to keep things simple, you can group them into two main categories (without even getting into anything coach or front office related). First, the major league team is in shambles. At 19-47, the Orioles have three fewer wins than any other team. Only one other team, the Royals, has been outscored by more runs (-114 vs. -112). The Orioles are a very bad baseball team that struggles across the board. It's hard to watch.
For reference, the 1988 Orioles (final record: 54-107) earned their 19th win on game 69 (to make them 19-50). They won their 20th game on game 72. This year's Orioles got their 19th win on game 60 (to make them 19-41). Through game 65, they're still sitting on 19 wins.
That leads to the second main issue: the future. The Orioles are not without promising talent in their farm system; however, many of their interesting prospects are not close to ready for the majors. The system also lacks high-end talent. In February, Austin Hays, Chance Sisco, and Ryan Mountcastle all landed somewhere on the notable national prospect lists. Hays was the only one of the three to be named on all five (MLB.com, Baseball America, Keith Law, Baseball Prospectus, and FanGraphs).
Since then, Sisco has graduated to the majors, and while he's held his own in semi-regular work, it would be a stretch to say he looks like anything more than a decent player. He doesn't look like a star. That's not bad, of course; it's just not great.
On Monday, FanGraphs released their updated top 131 prospect list. In February, Hays placed 90th on the list, and that was it for the Orioles. There is not a single O's prospect on this new version. Hays has dropped off entirely because he's struggling this year at Double-A Bowie, with a batting line of .224/.259/.374 (72 wRC+).
Now, the FanGraphs list isn't everything. No prospect list is the end-all, be-all. Mountcastle and maybe another prospect could still land on one or more of the national lists (he was on three last time). But Hays falling back to earth is disappointing and untimely, yet it shows just how much more talent the Orioles need in their farm system. No single player is going to solve this mess. Some things that are happening in the lower levels of the O's system are encouraging -- with, for example, Ryan McKenna, Michael Baumann, Zac Lowther, and others -- but it's not enough.
Almost everyone on this current O's roster should be a trade chip. The Orioles need to do whatever they can to add youth and talent nearly everywhere in the minors. Players that are close to major league ready would be preferred, but teams aren't just giving those prospects away. The O's need high-ceiling talent. They should be able to get a couple of those types by dealing away Manny Machado, Zach Britton, and others. Every possibility should be explored.
In the meantime, enjoy everything Machado, Britton, Adam Jones, and others do in an Orioles uniform before they're gone. And don't take a competitive game, home run, or solid defensive game for granted. One day things will get better for the O's, but it might be a while. Settle in.
Showing posts with label Ryan Mountcastle. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ryan Mountcastle. Show all posts
13 June 2018
09 February 2018
How Did The Orioles Fare In 2018 Top 100 Prospect Lists?
While fans continue to wait for free agents to sign, many have focused more on the various 2018 prospect rankings released over the last few weeks. After not rating well for a couple years, the Orioles' farm system is on the rise.
Austin Hays, Ryan Mountcastle, and Chance Sisco all appeared on at least one of the major lists (including top 100/101 lists for MLB.com, Baseball America, Keith Law, Baseball Prospectus, and FanGraphs).
Here's where they ended up:
Hays appears on all of the lists, while Mountcastle is a new addition (except on BP's midseason list, surprisingly at No. 41). Sisco, meanwhile, fell off of the lists of MLB.com, Baseball Prospectus, and FanGraphs after making it last year. He was 57th on BA's list last February and then jumped to 29th in July. Now, at No. 68, he's fallen back a bit. Only on Keith Law's list, where Sisco went from 69th in 2017 to 53rd in 2018, did he improve.
Other O's prospects like Hunter Harvey, D.L. Hall, and Tanner Scott also received praise by FanGraphs and, in Harvey's case, Law. Plus, if you're interested in the 2018 KATOH top 100 rankings on FanGraphs, D.J. Stewart, Scott, Hays, Zac Lowther, and Sisco all appear in the bottom half of the list. Even the Orioles shared the list, which maybe shows that they're desperate for good news.
As always, Jon would like to inject some nuance into this topic. As Matt Perez demonstrated in his Death to TINSTAAPP (there is no such thing as a pitching prospect) posts (found here and here), top position player prospects are still more valuable than pitching prospects, but the gap isn't as large anymore. Position players are more dependable in reaching a successful wins above replacement level, but the baseline for a pitching prospect may be a useful reliever who, under WAR calculations, has a more difficult time accumulating WAR.
Besides Harvey, who despite a slew of injuries and not pitching above A-ball hasn't slowed the O's expectations for him this season -- with the possibility of pitching in the majors in 2018 -- the O's don't have another starting pitching prospect who's near the majors to get excited about yet. Much of the team's current hope is on position players panning out and making up for soon-to-be departing talent.
Austin Hays, Ryan Mountcastle, and Chance Sisco all appeared on at least one of the major lists (including top 100/101 lists for MLB.com, Baseball America, Keith Law, Baseball Prospectus, and FanGraphs).
Here's where they ended up:
| Player | MLB | BA | Law | BP | FG |
| Hays | 23 | 21 | 79 | 72 | 90 |
| Mountcastle | 98 | 71 | n/a | 65 | n/a |
| Sisco | n/a | 68 | 53 | n/a | n/a |
Hays appears on all of the lists, while Mountcastle is a new addition (except on BP's midseason list, surprisingly at No. 41). Sisco, meanwhile, fell off of the lists of MLB.com, Baseball Prospectus, and FanGraphs after making it last year. He was 57th on BA's list last February and then jumped to 29th in July. Now, at No. 68, he's fallen back a bit. Only on Keith Law's list, where Sisco went from 69th in 2017 to 53rd in 2018, did he improve.
Other O's prospects like Hunter Harvey, D.L. Hall, and Tanner Scott also received praise by FanGraphs and, in Harvey's case, Law. Plus, if you're interested in the 2018 KATOH top 100 rankings on FanGraphs, D.J. Stewart, Scott, Hays, Zac Lowther, and Sisco all appear in the bottom half of the list. Even the Orioles shared the list, which maybe shows that they're desperate for good news.
As always, Jon would like to inject some nuance into this topic. As Matt Perez demonstrated in his Death to TINSTAAPP (there is no such thing as a pitching prospect) posts (found here and here), top position player prospects are still more valuable than pitching prospects, but the gap isn't as large anymore. Position players are more dependable in reaching a successful wins above replacement level, but the baseline for a pitching prospect may be a useful reliever who, under WAR calculations, has a more difficult time accumulating WAR.
Besides Harvey, who despite a slew of injuries and not pitching above A-ball hasn't slowed the O's expectations for him this season -- with the possibility of pitching in the majors in 2018 -- the O's don't have another starting pitching prospect who's near the majors to get excited about yet. Much of the team's current hope is on position players panning out and making up for soon-to-be departing talent.
26 January 2018
Is Adam Jones Undervalued?
Last week, I examined the production by Orioles' corner outfielders over the last few years (2015-2017). I also included this breakdown by position in FanGraphs wins above replacement for O's in that span. Here it is, if you missed it:
C: 7.7 fWAR (8th)
1B: 8.4 (7th)
2B: 6.5 (17th)
SS: 4.8 (21st)
3B: 14.4 (7th)
LF: -1.8 (29th)
CF: 5.7 (23rd)
RF: 5.5 (t-17th)
DH: 0.2 (t-13th)
SP: 40.5 (27th)
RP: 22.6 (5th)
As mentioned briefly in that post, it's interesting to see that O's center fielders rank 23rd in fWAR. When you talk Orioles and recent center fielders, you're basically just talking about Adam Jones.
In the last three years, Jones has put up an fWAR of 7.0. Because Jones rarely misses time, his backups don't play much. But when they take over for him, they've been pretty awful. Looking at Jones's production (CF only) over the last three years, he's tied for 12th among qualified center fielders. If you expand that out to the last five seasons, he's fifth, with an fWAR of 16.3. That trails Mike Trout (40.4), Andrew McCutchen (25.2), Carlos Gomez (18.0), and Lorenzo Cain (17.6). Not bad!
Jones has fallen off a bit as of late, both at the plate and in the field. He did rebound offensively in 2017, improving his wRC+ from 97 in 2016 to 107. That doesn't mean he's back or anything, but it was a nice recovery.
With Jones entering the final year of his contract, it's worth noting that the Orioles have not been able to develop anything close to a competent, consistent backup in center field during his tenure. The O's have tried to sell players like Nolan Reimold, Dariel Alvarez, Joey Rickard, and a bunch of veteran options (Nate McLouth, Gerardo Parra, Julio Borbon, Michael Bourn, etc.) as capable of playing an adequate center field. Almost all of them lacked the offensive skills, and only someone like David Lough flashed enough leather to maybe stick there for a while. To be fair, Jones is almost always on the lineup card with the number 8 next to his name, but it's not like you could get excited about any of the names above having to take over for Jones for any extended period of time. (Unless you were a huge Felix Pie fan, or something.)
It's possible that things have changed and the O's now have some center field options to get excited about. Those two options are Austin Hays and Cedric Mullins. In recent top-100 prospect rankings for 2018, Baseball America ranked Hays 21st and Keith Law (ESPN Insider required) had him 79th. As Jon discussed yesterday, there's some debate about whether Hays has the necessary tools to stick in center field. As long as Jones is healthy, Hays is unlikely to see much time there with the Orioles this year, but perhaps he'll play there more in the minors.
Or maybe the O's view Mullins as the center fielder of the near future, with Hays playing right field. Mullins was not ranked on any of the top-100 lists, but he is faster and is seen as the more natural fit in center. It also doesn't hurt that he's a left-handed bat for an organization with a GM who can't stop talking about the need for more lefties. Mullins, who played all of last season for Double-A Bowie, got off to a scalding start but was hampered by a nagging hamstring strain that limited him to just 76 games and 350 plate appearances. But he seems to have an intriguing mix of speed and power, and as long as he's healthy, he could find himself in Baltimore before the end of the season.
The Orioles have had their issues developing players. They're often knocked for ruining pitching prospects, but they haven't done well in coming up with quality outfield options. Maybe they hit on both Hays and Mullins, and they'll become contributors soon. Maybe that even includes Ryan Mountcastle, who may not be able to stick at third base and could find himself in left field (with Trey Mancini getting more at-bats at 1B/DH). A Mountcastle-Mullins-Hays homegrown outfield could be pretty exciting. Perhaps you can throw D.J. Stewart in there, too. Go crazy.
Still, these are all just hopes. Meanwhile, Jones is close to walking out that door. Even if you've been frustrated by his free-swinging ways or postseason struggles, it's going to be weird when someone else ends up playing center field for the O's. Jones was never a perfect player, and it's pretty ridiculous when an all-time talent like Trout makes things look so easy and easily dwarfs the production of his peers.
Regardless, Jones has been very good for the O's for a long time. It's hard to imagine the O's could have done any better when they traded away Erik Bedard nearly 10 years ago.
C: 7.7 fWAR (8th)
1B: 8.4 (7th)
2B: 6.5 (17th)
SS: 4.8 (21st)
3B: 14.4 (7th)
LF: -1.8 (29th)
CF: 5.7 (23rd)
RF: 5.5 (t-17th)
DH: 0.2 (t-13th)
SP: 40.5 (27th)
RP: 22.6 (5th)
As mentioned briefly in that post, it's interesting to see that O's center fielders rank 23rd in fWAR. When you talk Orioles and recent center fielders, you're basically just talking about Adam Jones.
In the last three years, Jones has put up an fWAR of 7.0. Because Jones rarely misses time, his backups don't play much. But when they take over for him, they've been pretty awful. Looking at Jones's production (CF only) over the last three years, he's tied for 12th among qualified center fielders. If you expand that out to the last five seasons, he's fifth, with an fWAR of 16.3. That trails Mike Trout (40.4), Andrew McCutchen (25.2), Carlos Gomez (18.0), and Lorenzo Cain (17.6). Not bad!
Jones has fallen off a bit as of late, both at the plate and in the field. He did rebound offensively in 2017, improving his wRC+ from 97 in 2016 to 107. That doesn't mean he's back or anything, but it was a nice recovery.
With Jones entering the final year of his contract, it's worth noting that the Orioles have not been able to develop anything close to a competent, consistent backup in center field during his tenure. The O's have tried to sell players like Nolan Reimold, Dariel Alvarez, Joey Rickard, and a bunch of veteran options (Nate McLouth, Gerardo Parra, Julio Borbon, Michael Bourn, etc.) as capable of playing an adequate center field. Almost all of them lacked the offensive skills, and only someone like David Lough flashed enough leather to maybe stick there for a while. To be fair, Jones is almost always on the lineup card with the number 8 next to his name, but it's not like you could get excited about any of the names above having to take over for Jones for any extended period of time. (Unless you were a huge Felix Pie fan, or something.)
It's possible that things have changed and the O's now have some center field options to get excited about. Those two options are Austin Hays and Cedric Mullins. In recent top-100 prospect rankings for 2018, Baseball America ranked Hays 21st and Keith Law (ESPN Insider required) had him 79th. As Jon discussed yesterday, there's some debate about whether Hays has the necessary tools to stick in center field. As long as Jones is healthy, Hays is unlikely to see much time there with the Orioles this year, but perhaps he'll play there more in the minors.
Or maybe the O's view Mullins as the center fielder of the near future, with Hays playing right field. Mullins was not ranked on any of the top-100 lists, but he is faster and is seen as the more natural fit in center. It also doesn't hurt that he's a left-handed bat for an organization with a GM who can't stop talking about the need for more lefties. Mullins, who played all of last season for Double-A Bowie, got off to a scalding start but was hampered by a nagging hamstring strain that limited him to just 76 games and 350 plate appearances. But he seems to have an intriguing mix of speed and power, and as long as he's healthy, he could find himself in Baltimore before the end of the season.
The Orioles have had their issues developing players. They're often knocked for ruining pitching prospects, but they haven't done well in coming up with quality outfield options. Maybe they hit on both Hays and Mullins, and they'll become contributors soon. Maybe that even includes Ryan Mountcastle, who may not be able to stick at third base and could find himself in left field (with Trey Mancini getting more at-bats at 1B/DH). A Mountcastle-Mullins-Hays homegrown outfield could be pretty exciting. Perhaps you can throw D.J. Stewart in there, too. Go crazy.
Still, these are all just hopes. Meanwhile, Jones is close to walking out that door. Even if you've been frustrated by his free-swinging ways or postseason struggles, it's going to be weird when someone else ends up playing center field for the O's. Jones was never a perfect player, and it's pretty ridiculous when an all-time talent like Trout makes things look so easy and easily dwarfs the production of his peers.
Regardless, Jones has been very good for the O's for a long time. It's hard to imagine the O's could have done any better when they traded away Erik Bedard nearly 10 years ago.
29 May 2017
Everyone's Available: Going for It in 2017
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| Photo Credit: Keith Allison |
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| Orioles Starting Rotation Rank (2017) |
It’s been a generally accepted notion that things are likely to get bad for the Orioles after the 2018 season. Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Zach Britton, and Brad Brach are all free agents. This is on top of the potential losses of Chris Tillman, Seth Smith, and Wade Miley (if his option is declined) after this season. Additionally, the contracts of Dan Duquette and Buck Showalter end after 2018. Even if the Orioles can bring back Jones, Machado, and Britton, they likely won’t have the payroll flexibility to add the needed role players, and there currently doesn’t look like there will be enough impact talent coming up from the minor leagues to fill the void. It may be a while until the Orioles are as good (or better) as they are right now, so now is the time to push whatever chips they have remaining to the center of the table.
It’s important to remember that when considering trades, quantity does not get you quality, but pairing any of those “untouchable” players (or a couple of them) with Mancini could potentially bring back a starting pitcher of higher value than Kendall Graveman. I agree with Jon that the focus should be on someone who has team control, at least through the 2018 season, as the Orioles plan to (and should) be competitive next year as well. At the moment I’m not sure who that starter might be, and it’s entirely possible that the inclusion of Sisco, Mountcastle, etc. to a Mancini deal may only bring back someone marginally better than Graveman. But they should not be automatically excluded from trade discussions.
Additionally, the potential loss of any of those “untouchable” prospects doesn’t have any bearing on 2018 other than the possibility that they become slightly more valuable as a trade chip next year. All of these players have question marks and in my opinion are better used to help the current MLB club than as foundations for the future.
- Hunter Harvey – High ceiling; has been injured more than he’s played
- Chance Sisco – Great hitter; questions on power and defense
- Cody Sedlock – Mid-rotation ceiling; struggling in High-A Frederick
- Ryan Mountcastle – Good hitter; probably needs to play LF (putting more pressure on his bat)
- Jomar Reyes – Good hitter; probably needs to move to 1B (putting more pressure on his bat)
Sisco is the one guy who could arguably contribute next year, as Welington Castillo’s player option doesn’t necessarily mean that he’ll be back after the 2017 season. Having said that, Sisco’s not off to a great start in AAA either, and he may not be quite ready for the big league club at the start of next season. If the post-2018 landscape continues to look bleak, no one in the minor league system (or Trey Mancini) should be untouchable. And in fact, they should be aggressively shopped to help the 2017 team, preferably for starting pitching.
Obviously, a lot can change in the next two months before the trade deadline. The Orioles could fall completely out of contention and look to sell some pieces in an attempt to re-load for 2018. However, if they stay in contention (and by taking care of business within the AL East so far, they’re in a good spot to do that…despite the recent 7 game losing streak), they should go all in on the 2017 season, and do whatever they need to do to make the major league cub as strong as possible. There appear to be dark times coming after 2018, and those “untouchable” minor league players aren’t likely to prevent that.
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