09 February 2018

How Did The Orioles Fare In 2018 Top 100 Prospect Lists?

While fans continue to wait for free agents to sign, many have focused more on the various 2018 prospect rankings released over the last few weeks. After not rating well for a couple years, the Orioles' farm system is on the rise.

Austin Hays, Ryan Mountcastle, and Chance Sisco all appeared on at least one of the major lists (including top 100/101 lists for MLB.com, Baseball America, Keith Law, Baseball Prospectus, and FanGraphs).

Here's where they ended up:

PlayerMLBBALawBPFG
Hays2321797290
Mountcastle9871n/a65n/a
Siscon/a6853n/an/a

Hays appears on all of the lists, while Mountcastle is a new addition (except on BP's midseason list, surprisingly at No. 41). Sisco, meanwhile, fell off of the lists of MLB.com, Baseball Prospectus, and FanGraphs after making it last year. He was 57th on BA's list last February and then jumped to 29th in July. Now, at No. 68, he's fallen back a bit. Only on Keith Law's list, where Sisco went from 69th in 2017 to 53rd in 2018, did he improve.

Other O's prospects like Hunter Harvey, D.L. Hall, and Tanner Scott also received praise by FanGraphs and, in Harvey's case, Law. Plus, if you're interested in the 2018 KATOH top 100 rankings on FanGraphs, D.J. Stewart, Scott, Hays, Zac Lowther, and Sisco all appear in the bottom half of the list. Even the Orioles shared the list, which maybe shows that they're desperate for good news.

As always, Jon would like to inject some nuance into this topic. As Matt Perez demonstrated in his Death to TINSTAAPP (there is no such thing as a pitching prospect) posts (found here and here), top position player prospects are still more valuable than pitching prospects, but the gap isn't as large anymore. Position players are more dependable in reaching a successful wins above replacement level, but the baseline for a pitching prospect may be a useful reliever who, under WAR calculations, has a more difficult time accumulating WAR.

Besides Harvey, who despite a slew of injuries and not pitching above A-ball hasn't slowed the O's expectations for him this season -- with the possibility of pitching in the majors in 2018 -- the O's don't have another starting pitching prospect who's near the majors to get excited about yet. Much of the team's current hope is on position players panning out and making up for soon-to-be departing talent.

1 comment:

Jim Adams said...

Agreed we do not have a top pitching prospect close to being ready. For 2019 there could be 2 depending on how Akin does in Bowie. Sedlock is more of a suspect now with his issues he had last year. -cbcoach