15 February 2018

Andrew Cashner is Pretty Pretty Pretty OK

At the Depot, we have a model called BORAS.  BORAS is a model that takes away all our experty opinions and troublesome feelings in order to gauge past performance and age, converting that into a contract.  When BORAS considered Andrew Cashner, it determined he was worth a 3/34 deal.  Peripherals indicate a strong role player in 2015 and 2017 as well as quite good performance on the field in 2017.  His velocity is a concern, it has been dropping.  His strikeout rate collapsed, which is troubling.  His avoidance of home runs last year appeared magical.  In other words, he is a pitcher who carries some red flags despite a passable track record.

What the Orioles signed Cashner to was a 2/16 deal with a 1/10 option which requires 360 IP in 2018 and 2019 total to activate.  If he hits all of his incentives then the deal will push up to 41 MM.  For all intent and purposes, this deal looks good for the Orioles if we assume BORAS is right.  BORAS has performed fairly well so far this year as it does every year, but this peculiar logjam of late might mean we are about to see a lot of contract coming in that are low in years and low in guaranteed pay.

What I mean to say is this, the Orioles signing Andrew Cashner is either terrible or good.  If the club sees itself as a playoff contender and Cashner as its third rotation piece, then we are in terrible territory.  If it sees him as the fifth option in a rotation, then it is pretty good.  Fourth, is, I guess, OK depending on who winds up being that third slot pitcher.

This off season, I have told folks to keep their powder dry and wait until you see the whites of their eyes.  With the Cashner signing, I think we are nearing the point to be concerned.  We are not there yet, we are closer.  We need to wait a little bit longer.  This could still work out.  Or not.  It all depends on what the actual role of Cashner is.  He can be a good pitcher and is perhaps a better candidate to be a good pitcher than someone like Miguel Gonzalez who went for slightly less.

There is still some hope if the next guy through the door is Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb.  If it is Tillman, then, you know, yeah.

9 comments:

Justin Weigold said...

I don't see the Orioles stepping up to pay for Lunn or Cobb. How do you feel about Jamie Garcia?

Amoussou said...

Unless Austin Hays has a better than benintendi 2017 year, Bundy wins Cy Young, Machado MVPs his last year in Bmore and Cisco knows what's up behind the plate, O's don't make the playoffs. Make a trade DD. Please....

PTCello said...

Jon, Camden Chat sees Cashner as another Gallardo, and Gallardo was a miserable waste of 22 million( 11 million I guess because he was traded for Seth Smith)
My question is how valid is that comparison and can you compare the two more in depth that you mentioned here?
It's interesting that Texas made no effort to keep Gallardo or Cashner despite their own serious need for pitching.
Last year Cashner was worth 1.8 Fwar, and if he did that for use he'd be worth a bit more than his contract.

PTCello said...

Correction: Camden Chat sees Cashner as POTENTIALLY another Gallardo.

Jon Shepherd said...

Not sure what that means.
Cashner did not come with the loss of a draft pick. If Gallardo was the same and cheap, then we would have liked that deal too.

PTCello said...

The comparison is the performance.
And with respect, losing the draft pick for Gallardo made a horrible deal worse.
Even if we had not lost the pick it still would have been a bad deal.
The implied danger is that Cashner will perform as Gallardo did, i.e. Badly.
I don't know enough to judge which is why I asked.

Roger said...

This would have been a better signing if the O's had gotten Garcia too. Unfortunately, Garcia will be in Canada. Garcia is on par with Cobb (according to FG) and would make a good #3 for the O's (#5 in Toronto, Oy) and Cashner could be a #4. Now there are no lefties left with that kind of profile (Brett Anderson anyone??). Vargas would make a nice #5, but we need Cobb or Lynn to make a real pitching staff. It sure would be nice if they picked up Dyson along the way......

Jon Shepherd said...

Cashner is a backend rotation guy. That comes with a range. Gallardo was a backend rotation guy. That cones with a range.

SkiClanPop said...

Bundy, Gausman,Cashner, Cortez, Masa watch out AL East