Wei-Yin Chen: Double Play Machine

by Nate Delong 
Delong writes about the Orioles over at Orioles Proving Ground. He is part of 2013's Expanded Roster, a feature where we provide local writers opportunities to expand their reach. Click here to find all of Camden Depot's Expanded Roster entries for 2012. 2011 Expanded Roster items can be found here. As always, feel free to provide the Depot with suggestions for posts or with your own interest in writing an items or several to be posted here.

Wei-Yin Chen recently went on the 15-day disabled list with a right oblique strain. As Matt Kremnitzer pointed out last week, Chen’s injury could cause some problems for an Orioles rotation that already ranks towards the bottom of the league in both ERA (23rd) and FIP (27th). Chen has easily been the most valuable member of the rotation this year, already accumulating 1.2 WAR in the first quarter of the season according to Fangraphs (2.2 WAR in all of 2012). His success this year comes mainly from his ability to keep the ball in the park, strand baserunners, and induce the double play.

Let’s focus on the final reason for his success. Wei-Yin Chen is not a ground ball pitcher. The league average GB% is usually around 44% (45.1% in 2012 and 44.6% in 2013). One look at the table below, and we see that Chen has been well below that in both 2012 and 2013.

Last year, Chen induced a total of 10 double plays. At the time he went on the disabled list this week, he had already matched last season’s total, despite getting opposing hitters to hit far less ground balls compared to last year. He is currently tied for second most double plays induced, behind Lucas Harrell (with 12), whose career GB% is just under 56%.

Let’s take a closer look at his double plays from 2013. Below is a table showing a couple of details for each of his double plays this year, followed by a corresponding figure that displays the pitch location of the double play (from the catcher’s prospective).*

*Pitch type and pitch location figures are courtesy of Brooks Baseball.

The first thing that pops out is the fact that Chen got away with a few pitches that could have been absolutely crushed, with half of them located over the plate, waist level or higher. Next, out of the players that hit double plays, at least half of them were hit by batters who are legitimately fast, indicating the balls were likely hit hard, right at the defender. Interestingly enough, only one of the groundballs was classified as weak (according to Baseball-Reference).

You’re probably thinking that Chen’s double plays in 2013 are just extreme good luck in a small sample, but just for fun, let’s take a look at the double plays from last year. The following table and figure show the same information as above, but for 2012.

All but 2 of the double play groundballs from 2012 were considered weak (I’m including the bunt as a weak groundball, as it’s probably safe to assume it wasn’t a scorcher), and it seems to make more sense, as Chen got more of these double plays from batters making contact on pitches located on the edge (or even out) of the strikezone.

Compared to last year, Chen’s double plays in 2013 certainly look like a function of good luck, especially considering the pitch locations. However, as a friend and I were discussing, the vastly improved infield defense could play a part in this increase as well. Beware of the very small sample in UZR/150 in the table below (UZR tends to stabilize after 3 years of fielding data), but it’s clear to see from both advanced and standard statistics (or with your own eyes while watching games) that this year’s infield defense is far superior to last year’s.

In fact, the entire Orioles pitching staff is on pace this year to shatter the number of double plays recorded in 2012. Through 40 games, the Orioles have turned 38 double plays, and if they maintain that pace, they’ll reach 154 by the end of the season, compared to 131 in 2012. Chen may have lady luck to thank for his increase in double plays this year, but it’s important to remember that he may have his improved infield defense to thank as well.

Strikezone Analysis for May 17 - 19: Rays at Orioles

Series Thoughts


What an extraordinarily frustrating series. The called strikezone greatly benefited the Orioles in one game, benefited the Rays in another, and was neutral in another, which shouldn't be masked by the overall high correct call rates (first series this season with all three games over 90% correct). The Orioles even came out ahead on calls in favor to calls against, 22 to 19, but this series demonstrates that not all incorrect calls are created equal. There is a significant difference between random pitches called incorrectly here and there compared to a massive shifting of the strikezone in one direction or another.

Click through the jump for the game-by-game breakdown.

Hammel Struggling to Get on Track

This post was written by Zach Mariner. Follow him on Twitter here.

Friday night was, in a word, disastrous for Jason Hammel, Baltimore’s ace from 2012. Despite a 5-2 record on the young season, Hammel has struggled mightily, and his rough outing against Tampa Bay (seven earned runs on 10 hits in 4.2 innings) was the worst of his nine starts.

Hammel was 6-1 through nine starts in 2012, and his ERA was down at 2.78, compared to 5.72 so far this season. He only has three quality starts, as opposed to six through nine starts last year. His innings pitched are also down, having thrown just 50.1, compared to 55 at this point in 2012. If not for the ridiculous amount of run support from his teammates (over seven runs per start), his record would probably not look nearly as nice as it does.

Which brings us to the question, why? Well, he’s still throwing 60.9 percent of his pitches for strikes, barely down from last year’s 62.1 mark. However, his strikeouts are down from 8.67 per nine innings in 2012 to 6.47 per nine in 2013, closer to his career mark of 6.57. The culprits behind Hammel’s decreasing strikeout numbers are the decline of his velocity and vertical pitch movement across the board, which may support the argument that his impressive 2012 might have been a fluke, as he’s regressed more toward the 2011 version of himself. It doesn’t look like much, but it’s making all the difference in the world.

Another area where you’re really seeing a big difference is Hammel’s fly ball/ground ball ratio. Right now, it stands at 1.12, where as last year it was down at 0.76. If that weren’t enough, he’s given up twice as many home runs (seven, as opposed to just three in 2012) as he did through nine starts last season.

It also doesn’t help that Hammel is oftentimes missing his spots, leaving the ball up and out over the plate and giving hitters a chance to drive the baseball. We’ve heard Buck Showalter talk about Hammel having trouble “repeating his delivery” which is just a fancy way of saying he’s been inconsistent, and it’s certainly showed in his numbers. Hammel was quoted after the game on Friday as saying, “I’ve been here before. I’ve figured it out before. I’m not going to continue to beat myself up.” And followed up by saying he’s been “trying to do too much.”

And that makes sense to a certain extent, as the expectations for him are higher, since last season he was on pace to have easily the best season of his seven-year career -- if not for it being shortened by injuries. A lot of people described last year as somewhat of a fluke season for him, as he went 8-6 with a 3.43 ERA -- from 2006-2011, he had a 34-45 record with a 4.99 ERA, struggling in stints with the Rays and Rockies.

It is important to note that while Hammel isn’t pitching quite as well as he did a year ago, he’s still doing his part to stay healthy and put the Orioles in position to win ball games, for the most part. He trails only Chris Tillman in both innings pitched and strikeouts. So even though he hasn’t looked like the anchor of this starting rotation, he’s still doing enough to get by, assuming he can turn things around within the next few weeks.

Sunday Comics: Catch-Up Time

Fans are allowed to dream, after all.

Zach Britton's Start of May 14, 2013

In the 2010-2011 offseason, left-handed starting pitcher Zach Britton was hot. He had split 2010 between AA Bowie and AAA Norfolk, and had pitched 153 innings with a 2.70 ERA. Baseball America rated him the 28th-best prospect in baseball. The 2010 Orioles' starting rotation was shaky, and while most thought he would benefit from more minor-league seasoning, he was still a candidate for the 2011 Orioles' rotation. Chris Tillman pitched poorly, Brian Matusz got hurtm and Britton pitched well in spring training, Britton earned that rotation spot and survived all season.

Unfortunately for him, 2012 didn't go as well. He began the year injured and didn't make his 2012 debut until the end of May, and that in the minors. With the Orioles playing well, there wasn't a need to rush him back to the majors, and he didn't make his 2012 major-league debut until July. He was promoted for good in August, and didn't pitch well. Before 2013, he was considered one of the longer shots for a spot in the Orioles' rotation, both because he hadn't pitched as well as Miguel Gonzalez or Chris Tillman and because he had minor-league optional assignments remaining.

Today, the Orioles starting rotation is once again unsettled. Orioles fans a wondering if Zach Britton can return to the Orioles and take his place in their rotation. I've seen Britton make two starts at Norfolk this season. He had a blister on a finger on his throwing hand during his April 7 start and was consequently unable to control his pitches. The start that I saw second was last Tuesday, May 14; and I'll look at Britton's performance in this article.

A summary: Britton pitched 5 1/3 innings, giving up seven runs (six earned) on twelve hits. He struck out three and walked none. He didn't have much defensive support. L.J. Hoes made a fairly long run to get to a fly ball in right field, then dropped it for an error. Danny Valencia made the single dumbest defensive decision I've seen in 2013; with a two-run lead and a runner on third base, he moved to his left to field a ground ball and then decided to throw home; the runner was safe and the batter-runner later scored. Trayvon Robinson in left field arguably cost his team two outs with hesitant decision-making on throws. On the other hand, most of the base hits Britton allowed were on balls hit harder than average. While this was bad game for Britton, it wasn't an atypically bad outlier.

Let's look first of all at his pitches:

Called Balls: 31
Called Strikes: 12
Swinging Strikes: 8
Fouls: 22
Put in Play: 24

There weren't any, but if there had been any foul fly outs, they would be counted as a ball put in play. Also, foul tips (foul balls which went directly in the catcher's mitt and remained caught, and count as swinging strikes for all purposes) are recorded as swinging strikes.

Batters swung at 55.6% of Britton's pitches, and when they did swing, they made contact 85.2% of the time. That's not really surprising; Britton has a reputation as a pitch-to-contact pitcher and he has neither an overpowering fastball nor deceptive movement on his pitches. And when they didn't swing, the umpire called the pitch a ball 72% of the time. This is entirely in keeping with Britton's reputation; he's not an overpowering pitcher and to succeed he must induce weak contact.

To some degree he was successful at that. Of the 24 balls put in play, 16 were ground balls, 5 were line drives, and 3 were fly balls. A ground ball is any ball which, if hit directly at an infielder, would have hit the ground before it reached him; there is a subjective component between "line drive" and "fly ball" which I can't really explain. The good news is that for a pitcher of Britton's type to succeed, he must get ground balls. He did. He also must avoid walks. He did. He also needs a good infield defense; in this game, he didn't. Third baseman Valencia isn't bad, but shortstop Brandon Wood, second baseman Buck Britton, and first basemen Russ Canzler and Chris Robinson were being stretched.

Britton was working neither notably ahead of or behind hitters. The list below shows the number of times the opposing batter had a specific pitch count; the numbers won't add up because of two-strike fouls.

0-0: 27
1-0: 11
0-1: 12
2-0: 4
1-1: 10
0-2: 6
3-0: 1
2-1: 4
1-2: 8
3-1: 1
2-2: 12
3-2: 1

He made 26 pitches when he was ahead of the hitter; 49 when the count was even; and 18 when he was behind the hitter. Other than the obvious -- he wasn't consistently behind the hitters -- I don't know enough to judge this. (As a contrast, the next day Lehigh Valley relief pitcher Cesar Jimenez made twenty pitches in which he was behind in the count to 14 batters.)

Finally, let's look at how quickly Britton was able to deal with hitters. The average batter saw 3 1/2 pitches before a result. Below is the number of at-bats in which the batter saw a given number of pitches:

1 pitch: 4
2 pitches: 4
3 pitches: 6
4 pitches: 7
5 pitches: 2
6 pitches: 3
7 pitches: 2

Here, too, I don't know enough to draw any conclusions or to make any judgement.

It seems clear that Zach Britton is a young pitcher who gets ground balls and has good control. Generally, pitchers of this type don't really achieve their peak until they're in their thirties, although they can be successful in their twenties. I think Britton is a better option than Freddy Garcia, and I'd rather give him a chance than Jake Arrieta. The Orioles do have a good infield defense, which will help him. The problem is that Britton might very well struggle in his first few starts until he gets acclimated, and if he does struggle he's going to be really bad. So even if the Orioles turn to Britton, they may give up on him before he has a chance to establish himself.

Strikezone Analysis for May 14 - 15: Padres at Orioles

Series Thoughts

In continuation of the trend I noticed this weekend, Wieters continues to have "noisy" glovework. He is inconsistent in presenting a clear target to his pitcher (the easily visible brown interior of his glove, as opposed to the black exterior, which blends with his chestguard); often this includes rapidly twisting his wrist, flipping his glove between open and closed, front and back presented to the pitcher. He also presents the backside of his glove in a different location than he seems to want the pitch. Finally, he has quite a bit of glove movement upon receiving the pitch. I know that this was something that the team worked on with him when he was first drafted and called up. Perhaps he could use a refresher course.

Click through the jump for the game-by-game.

Strikezone Analysis by Pitcher: Volume I

The off day gave me some extra time to go through and take a look at how each pitcher is fairing with the called strikezone, both Real and Typical, as well as borderline pitchers.

These numbers are likely to change as the season progresses. Hammel, Chen, Gonzalez, and Tillman have each seen multiple umpires, so their numbers are somewhat more reliable, although 35 - 50 IP is still a small sample size. Johnson (Jim), O'Day, Patton, Matusz, Strop, Hunter, and McFarland have enough appearances out of the bullpen to have seen quite a few umpires, but with less than 20 IP each, just a few pitches can skew their numbers significantly.

That being said, there are some interesting trends emerging. Wei-yin Chen and Jim Johnson have the most accurately called pitches, while TJ McFarland and Tommy Hunter have some of the least accurate called pitches. But there's more to this than simple accuracy. Chen and Johnson pay for their accurate zones, as their ability to get balls called strikes is much lower than other pitchers. On the other hand, TJ McFarland and Darren O'Day must be dazzling the umpires, because they are earning called strikes on pitches outside of the zone at a much higher rate.

Click through the jump for a more in-depth breakdown.

Chen's Injury Could Be Troublesome for Thin O's Rotation

Orioles' left-hander Wei-Yin Chen is likely headed to the disabled list with a right oblique strain. Chen would join Miguel Gonzalez as the second injured Orioles starting pitcher, though Gonzalez's injury, a thumb blister, isn't as serious as Chen's. (Oblique injuries can be pesky.) Also, Gonzalez's disabled list stint is retroactive to May 4, so he should be able to rejoin the rotation within the next week.

Still, the loss of Chen for any extended amount of time would be a serious blow to the Orioles. Until Gonzalez returns, the O's three remaining starters are Jason Hammel, Chris Tillman (who starts today), and Freddy Garcia (who will apparently start tomorrow). Thankfully, the O's had an off day yesterday and have another on Thursday, but after that they don't have one until June 3. So they can juggle their rotation in the short term, but Chen's absence will matter soon, especially since his temporary replacement(s) will likely be some combination of Zach Britton, Steve Johnson, and Jair Jurrjens. Jake Arrieta is dealing with a shoulder strain, and Kevin Gausman doesn't seem like an option just yet. But anything's possible.

It's only May, but Chen has been the O's best starter so far. He put up an fWAR of 2.2 last season, but he's already up to 1.2 fWAR in 2013. His strikeouts have been down (from 7.19 K/9 to 5.13), but he's been walking slightly fewer batters while doing a much better job of keeping the ball in the ballpark (from 1.35 HR/9 to 0.57). But that's in only 47.1 innings, so who knows if that trend will continue, especially now that he'll have to work his way back from an injury.

Last season, Chen didn't have amazing numbers (4.02 ERA/4.42 FIP/4.34 xFIP), but he threw 74.2 more innings (192.2) than the team's next closest starter, Hammel (with 118). Tillman only pitched 86 innings, and although he's shown tremendous strides these past two seasons, he's far from a reliable option and even dealt with his own injury concern just last September.

Garcia is a wild card, and anything the Orioles get from him is a bonus. He wasn't as bad as his 5.20 ERA in 107.1 innings with the Yankees last season indicated, but he wasn't good, either. But there's a big difference between asking him to be a fifth starter type and being someone the team actually needs to pitch well for a couple weeks. He's been pretty lucky in 12.2 innings (.135 BABIP) and has been OK, but more of those balls in play will turn into hits, and since he's not striking anyone out, that's going to be a problem.

And then there's Hammel, who has not looked anything like the pitcher Orioles fans watched last season. His walks are up, his strikeouts are down, he's not getting as many groundballs, he's giving up more home runs, and his velocity is down. I'd say those are reasons to be worried. More than any other pitcher, the O's will need Hammel to step up in Chen's absence. It would certainly be helpful if the guy who put up 2.6 fWAR in just 118 innings quickly turned things around.

Maybe some of that Dan Duquette magic will present itself yet again, and Garcia and Jurrjens (or someone else) will shut things down while Chen recovers. It's unlikely -- but not impossible. Just look at what Vernon Wells, Lyle Overbay, and Travis Hafner are doing for the Yankees. But I'm not expecting great things, which will probably mean more innings for an already overworked bullpen. Get well soon, Chen.

Strikezone Analysis for May 10 - 12: Orioles at Twins

Series Thoughts

Overall, a poor series for the umpires. The strikezones looked an awful lot like the strikezones of the late-'90s and early-'00s, very elongated across the plate and inconsistent on the top. The Orioles worked the Tzone-Rzone area very well, posting strike rates of 85.71%, 50.00%, and 100.00% (first "perfect" Tzone-Rzone game this season). By comparison, the Twins sat at 54.71%, 61.54%, and 44.44%. The Orioles were also consistently better on borderline strikes. This mimics the results of the first series, with the Orioles significantly better at getting close pitches called strikes than the Twins in wins and only slightly worse (if at all) in losses. Small sample size conclusion? Ryan Doumit and Joe Mauer aren't very good at receiving pitches and presenting them to the umpire.

On to the game-by-game strikezone analysis, as well as a discussion (with game images) of the difference between how Snyder and Wieters present a target to the pitcher.

Data: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0An-w9dFaRvtmdENTeWZnczVZUERyc25Gd1NNOE0xV3c#gid=0

Sunday Comics: Happy Mothers' Day!

 

Have a wonderful Mothers' Day, everyone!