12 October 2018

BORAS Blowout 2018/19: Third Base

Catcher | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | LF | CF | RF | DH | SP

Alright, after being leveled by some respiratory disease for a week, we are back on with the third base installment of the BORAS model.  Some long time readers of the site still think that I call up Scott Boras and get his take, but no.  I have already mentioned it a few times in this series and have gone through some messy bits in years past, but the BORAS model stands for Ballplayer Observation-based Renumeration Assumption System.  The name is a very stretched out attempted to make it BORAS.  So there you go.  Again, I look at the historical relationship between several different performance variables for years prior to signing a contract and the contract itself.  The current model is now a collection of really six models that are split by position and age.  I hope this clears things up.  Go back to the older introduction articles to get more of a history.

The third base batch below contains projections for those who retired as well as a few who have been covered in previous positions.
Years Total (MM)
Adrian Beltre 1 9.7
Asdrubal Cabrera 3 30.9
Josh Donaldson 3 54
Logan Forsythe 1 7.6
David Freese 2 20.6
Marwin Gonzalez 1 13.4
Chase Headley 1 7.4
Jung-ho Kang 2 17.4
Jed Lowrie 4 56.8
Manny Machado 10 250
Mike Moustakas 2 28.6
Eduardo Nunez 1 6.6
Jose Reyes Invite
Andrew Romine 1 5.3
Pabl0 Sandoval 1 6.5
Luis Valbuena Invite
David Freese looks a little bizarre, but he is one of those guys who when skillfully deployed really helps to boost an offense.  For instance, he only netted himself about 300 PA for the Pirates and Dodgers this season, yet he was able to have a 2.1 bWAR.  That kind of quality usually comes with some investment in years and total money from a club.  However, Freese is considered a platoon bat against left handers, which usually limits the market.  Plus, he may now be more of a first baseman than a third baseman, which also limits the market.  A 1/6 or 1.7 deal would be my expectation instead of a 2/20.6.

Some might think Josh Donaldson's 3/54 deal is a bit light.  From 2013-2016, Donaldson was a golden god with an average bWAR of 6.6.  However, 2017 and 2018 were mired with injuries.  That said, he has had a very late season boost since becoming an Indian and could see a team take a chance.  If you completely ignore last season and have him repeat a modest 4 WAR season, then BORAS would change the expectation to 5/115.  Third base, however, is a fairly bountiful position right now in the Majors, but I could see a club tossing out a 4/100 deal to him.

I think the Headley, Kang, Sandoval, and Romine deals are overly kind.  They exist in this little bubble of the model where they it has a hard time discerning whether a player is really worth a contract and it feels fine putting down a 6 or 7 or 8 MM cost to it.  I think all of these guys are more or less invite quality players.

Anyway, this is the third base group.  Come Monday I will be posting left fielders.

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