19 October 2018

BORAS Blowout 2018/19: Centerfield

Catcher | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | LF | CF | RF | DH | SP

The BORAS model projections for centerfield are a bit more interesting than the other recent ones.  One, it takes a look at what Adam Jones can expect.  Two, I decided to take a gander at two player who are not free agents: Mike Trout and non-centerfielder Mookie Betts.
Years Total (MM)
Gregor Blanco Invite
Rajai Davis Invite
Craig Gentry 1 7.6
Carlos Gomez 1 8.1
Jon Jay 1 8
Adam Jones 2 18.7
Leonys Martin 3 19
Cameron Maybin 1 9
Andrew McCutchen 3 45.6
AJ Pollock 3 38.1
Denard Span 2 20.4
Mike Trout 12 407
Mookie Betts 12 417
Lets talk Adam Jones first.  Last year, I made some favorable assumptions and pegged Jones as looking forward to a 2/22 extension.  I cannot find the series of tweets, but someone tagged him on the projection and he voiced his displeasure at the number.  2018 was not exactly kind to Jones in a few ways, including his performance in the field.  BORAS downgraded him to a 2/18.7 deal.  I have a hard time seeing him accept anything below an annual 10 MM salary, but the market may well dry up.

What is going for him that BORAS does not consider is that he is a good clubhouse presence and he is considered able to play all outfield positions even though his effort or comfort looked very subpar in right field as his season ended.  Jones could find himself a second wind.  He has the bat speed and the other qualities that made him an all star quality player.  Perhaps moving to a corner position will help him.  Maybe focusing on a more contact oriented approach to improve his barrelling.  I do not know.  The only negative is that he has sure slowed down a bit over the years.  His speed never played well on the basepaths, but he was a plus runner.  He now is a 45/50 runner, but maybe that was impacted by overuse and injury.

So...I also looked at Mike Trout and Mookie Betts.  The reason why was because I wondered about Manny Machado's 10/250 projection.  I had thought that perhaps the model, lacking data in the young superstar area, might underproject the Machado deal.  The Trout and Betts projections indicate otherwise.  The 400+ MM deals for Trout and Betts appear to validate the model and suggest that we should expect a monster deal for Machado, but far less than was expected a few years ago.

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