30 October 2018

BORAS Blowout 2018/19: Pitcher-palooza

As noted before, the BORAS model does not look at relievers, so starting pitching is the final post of the BORAS model blowout this offseason.  Other positions we have covered are:

Catcher | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | LF | CF | RF | DH | SP

As a reminder, the BORAS model looks at contracts signed from 2013/14-2017/18 in relationship to performance and biological metrics.  Basically, how good were they in the years leading up to the contract, what type of player is he, and how old is he.  Over the years, the model in whole has finished as the most accurate or second most accurate every single year for players who signed multi-year deals above 8 MM per year.  Below those markets and the certainty in the projections decreases significantly.

Below are included several player who have player or team options.  Chris Sale will not be let out of his contract, so there goes a big name.  The same with Carrasco.  David Price will not see in the market what his current contract hands him, so he will stay.  An intriguing name below is Clayton Kershaw.  He has two years and 65 MM left to him on his current deal, but can opt out.  BORAS comes up with his market value as 4/88, which sounds like maybe he should not opt out.  BORAS worries about the missed time Kershaw has experienced over the past few years and his age.

Year Total
Madison Bumgarner 2 24.6
Clay Buchholz 2 17.2
Trevor Cahill 2 19.4
Carlos Carrasco 6 160
Bartolo Colon Invite
Patrick Corbin 7 182
Marco Estrada 1 8.7
Nathan Eovaldi 2 21.4
Doug Fister 1 4.9
Jaime Garcia 1 5.8
Gio Gonzalez 3 43.8
Miguel Gonzalez Invite
Cole Hamels 2 27
Jason Hammel 1 6.3
JA Happ 3 51.6
Matt Harvey 2 12.1
Jeremy Hellickson 1 8.6
Derek Holland 2 15.4
Clayton kershaw 4 88
Dallas Keuchel 5 84
Francisco Liriano 1 3.8
Jordan Lyles 2 9.8
Lance Lynn 3 37.5
Wade Miley 2 17
Matt Moore 1 4.6
Charlie Morton 3 46.2
Martin Perez 1 6.7
Drew Pomeranz 1 8.1
David Price 3 46.5
Garrett Richards 2 14.4
Tyson Ross 2 10.2
Hyun-Jin Ryu 3 29.7
CC Sabathia 2 25.2
Chris Sale 8 286
Anibal Sanchez 2 18.6
Ervin Santana Invite
Hector Santiago 1 2.6
James Shields Invite
Chris Tillman Invite
Josh Tomlin Invite
Adam Wainwright Invite
It appears that the 2018/19 off season will be like the 2016/17 offseason where no truly front end talent is available.


Pip said...

The Orioles are in a huge state of flux, but they probably need to sign a pitcher or two. Do any of these guys stand out as being appropriate for the Orioles given where they are?

Jon Shepherd said...

Someone like Jordan Lyles might be interesting. You need someone who occupies that inning eater or long arm in the bullpen kind of guys. Versatility.