03 October 2018

BORAS Blowout 2018/19: First Base

Catcher | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | LF | CF | RF | DH | SP

Yesterday, I wrote about catchers and a bit about the new BORAS model system this year.  Today, we move on to first basemen.  While catchers had a potentially big name in Yasmani Grandal, the big name here (Justin Smoak) has a club option for eight million, which seems like an easy decision for the Blue Jays to pick up as Smoak has accounted for quite a bit of offense these past few years in Toronto.

Here is the BORAS projection for first base.
Years Total (MM)
Matt Adams 1 11.1
Lucas Duda 2 18.2
Marwin Gonzalez 1 11
Joe Mauer 1 10
Logan Morrison m8 2 22.6
Steve Pearce 2 21.8
Hanley Ramirez 1 7.2
Mark Reynolds 1 8.5
Justin Smoak c8 3 44.1
Danny Valencia 1 7
Chris Davis Invite
Mark Trumbo 1 8.3
As this is an Orioles site, I added two players who are not free agents, Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo. Neither live up to their current deals, but Davis is the hard one to take for Orioles fans.  BORAS is so unimpressed with Davis that the invite status is an incredibly kind designation.  For Trumbo, there is an upside there.  He notoriously underperforms as a designated hitter, but if he had put up his on field batting numbers while at first base then he would be looking at something more in the neighborhood of 3/40 or even more.

All in all, the numbers above look about right with a few issues.  BORAS does not know that Valencia is a weakside platoon bat, that will drop his value in the open market (not to mention the mumbling of clubhouse concerns).  Reynolds and Ramirez also feel a bit high as they are uneven veterans with younger talent undermining their value.

BORAS loves it some Steve Pearce.  It always has and it really has always been correct about his value, if not his contract terms.  Teams seem to be concerned about his injuries, streaky bat, and positional concerns, but he always seems to do well as a strong role player.  His arm may not be what it was, but he should be a highly sought after bench/role bat.

BORAS seems a little confused by Marwin Gonzalez and his 1/11 deal seems a little rough.  I see Gonzalez as a healthier Steve Pearce.  These are the kind of guys teams really need.  Their bat can be surprisingly good and they positional flexibility enables a team to use the best player available in the minors when an injury arises instead of the best available player at a given position.  My best is that teams are willing to hand over a greater commitment to Gonzalez.

All in all, I think the projections are roughly about where they should be given that this system does well with 2+ year commitments and AAVs over 8 MM.

1 comment:

Rob said...

Now that Buck is gone and the O's are in full rebuild, you have to wonder of Mancini, Trumbo, and Davis are all on the roster by the start of the '19 season.