BORAS Blowout 2018/19: Right Field

Catcher | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | LF | CF | RF | DH | SP

Just chopping some wood, clearing out the BORAS modeling projections.  Here is right field:

	Years	Total (MM)
Jose Bautista		Invite
Melky Cabrera	1	7.7
Lonnie Chisenhall	3	31.5
Curtis Granderson	1	11
Carlos Gomez	1	8.1
Carlos Gonzalez	2	14.5
Brandon Guyer	1	7.3
Bryce Harper	7	138.6
Jason Heyward	2	22.4
Matt Joyce	1	11
Nick Markakis	2	17.6
Andrew McCutchen	3	45.6
Hunter Pence		Invite
Yasmany Tomas	4	46.4

BORAS model really thinks Bryce Harper will get a fairly underwhelming deal in comparison to the murmurings of a 400 MM contract for the past few years.  Some thought the 10/250 Manny projection felt light and, well, a Harper deal of seven years just shy of a 20 MM annual value will result in some tsk-tsking.  Regardless, while he has shown glimmers of brilliance, he also seems to have some shortcomings that undermine that value.

A second interesting note is that BORAS thinks Adam Jones is more valuable than Nick Markakis.  I think a lot of folks will disagree with that.  I ran an unscientific twitter poll a while back and four to one think Markakis will see a better pay day.

My last thought is on Yasmany Tomas, who will not opt out of his deal.  That said, 4/46.4 would not be happening for him.

BORAS Blowout 2018/19: Centerfield

Catcher | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | LF | CF | RF | DH | SP

The BORAS model projections for centerfield are a bit more interesting than the other recent ones.  One, it takes a look at what Adam Jones can expect.  Two, I decided to take a gander at two player who are not free agents: Mike Trout and non-centerfielder Mookie Betts.

	Years	Total (MM)
Gregor Blanco		Invite
Rajai Davis		Invite
Craig Gentry	1	7.6
Carlos Gomez	1	8.1
Jon Jay	1	8
Adam Jones	2	18.7
Leonys Martin	3	19
Cameron Maybin	1	9
Andrew McCutchen	3	45.6
AJ Pollock	3	38.1
Denard Span	2	20.4
Mike Trout	12	407
Mookie Betts	12	417

Lets talk Adam Jones first.  Last year, I made some favorable assumptions and pegged Jones as looking forward to a 2/22 extension.  I cannot find the series of tweets, but someone tagged him on the projection and he voiced his displeasure at the number.  2018 was not exactly kind to Jones in a few ways, including his performance in the field.  BORAS downgraded him to a 2/18.7 deal.  I have a hard time seeing him accept anything below an annual 10 MM salary, but the market may well dry up.

What is going for him that BORAS does not consider is that he is a good clubhouse presence and he is considered able to play all outfield positions even though his effort or comfort looked very subpar in right field as his season ended.  Jones could find himself a second wind.  He has the bat speed and the other qualities that made him an all star quality player.  Perhaps moving to a corner position will help him.  Maybe focusing on a more contact oriented approach to improve his barrelling.  I do not know.  The only negative is that he has sure slowed down a bit over the years.  His speed never played well on the basepaths, but he was a plus runner.  He now is a 45/50 runner, but maybe that was impacted by overuse and injury.

So...I also looked at Mike Trout and Mookie Betts.  The reason why was because I wondered about Manny Machado's 10/250 projection.  I had thought that perhaps the model, lacking data in the young superstar area, might underproject the Machado deal.  The Trout and Betts projections indicate otherwise.  The 400+ MM deals for Trout and Betts appear to validate the model and suggest that we should expect a monster deal for Machado, but far less than was expected a few years ago.

BORAS Blowout 2018/19: Left Field

Catcher | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | LF | CF | RF | DH | SP

And after a little respite, here we go with the next batch.  The BORAS model projections for left field:

	Years	Total (MM)
Gregor Blanco		Invite
Michael Brantley	4	55.2
Melky Cabrera	1	7.7
Rajai Davis		Invite
Daniel Descalso	2	18.8
Brett Gardner	2	24.4
Craig Gentry	1	7.6
Carlos Gonzalez	2	14.5
Marwin Gonzalez	1	11
Brandon Guyer	1	7.3
Jon Jay	1	8
Cameron Maybin	1	9
Gerardo Parra	1	5

This group includes a number of players who have been addressed before.  I think the main miss here, as it has all along, is Marwin Gonzalez.  He is so flexible and useful that I imagine he finds himself a larger deal.  He is a poor man's Ben Zobrist or a rich man's Steve Pearce.

As always, once the model sinks below the 10 MM mark, things can get weird.  No, Gentry will not find himself a 1/7.6 MM deal.

BORAS Blowout 2018/19: Third Base

Catcher | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | LF | CF | RF | DH | SP

Alright, after being leveled by some respiratory disease for a week, we are back on with the third base installment of the BORAS model.  Some long time readers of the site still think that I call up Scott Boras and get his take, but no.  I have already mentioned it a few times in this series and have gone through some messy bits in years past, but the BORAS model stands for Ballplayer Observation-based Renumeration Assumption System.  The name is a very stretched out attempted to make it BORAS.  So there you go.  Again, I look at the historical relationship between several different performance variables for years prior to signing a contract and the contract itself.  The current model is now a collection of really six models that are split by position and age.  I hope this clears things up.  Go back to the older introduction articles to get more of a history.

The third base batch below contains projections for those who retired as well as a few who have been covered in previous positions.

	Years	Total (MM)
Adrian Beltre	1	9.7
Asdrubal Cabrera	3	30.9
Josh Donaldson	3	54
Logan Forsythe	1	7.6
David Freese	2	20.6
Marwin Gonzalez	1	13.4
Chase Headley	1	7.4
Jung-ho Kang	2	17.4
Jed Lowrie	4	56.8
Manny Machado	10	250
Mike Moustakas	2	28.6
Eduardo Nunez	1	6.6
Jose Reyes		Invite
Andrew Romine	1	5.3
Pabl0 Sandoval	1	6.5
Luis Valbuena		Invite

David Freese looks a little bizarre, but he is one of those guys who when skillfully deployed really helps to boost an offense.  For instance, he only netted himself about 300 PA for the Pirates and Dodgers this season, yet he was able to have a 2.1 bWAR.  That kind of quality usually comes with some investment in years and total money from a club.  However, Freese is considered a platoon bat against left handers, which usually limits the market.  Plus, he may now be more of a first baseman than a third baseman, which also limits the market.  A 1/6 or 1.7 deal would be my expectation instead of a 2/20.6.

Some might think Josh Donaldson's 3/54 deal is a bit light.  From 2013-2016, Donaldson was a golden god with an average bWAR of 6.6.  However, 2017 and 2018 were mired with injuries.  That said, he has had a very late season boost since becoming an Indian and could see a team take a chance.  If you completely ignore last season and have him repeat a modest 4 WAR season, then BORAS would change the expectation to 5/115.  Third base, however, is a fairly bountiful position right now in the Majors, but I could see a club tossing out a 4/100 deal to him.

I think the Headley, Kang, Sandoval, and Romine deals are overly kind.  They exist in this little bubble of the model where they it has a hard time discerning whether a player is really worth a contract and it feels fine putting down a 6 or 7 or 8 MM cost to it.  I think all of these guys are more or less invite quality players.

Anyway, this is the third base group.  Come Monday I will be posting left fielders.

BORAS Blowout 2018/19: Shortstops

Catcher | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | LF | CF | RF | DH | SP

As I have marched through the model projections, today was one that quite a few folks had circled with some anticipation.  I mentioned the projection on twitter, but here it is in its full glory. Shortstops (aka Manny Machado and some other guys).

	Years	Total (MM)
Elvis Andrus p58	1	10.5
Asdrubal Cabrera	3	30.9
Alcides Escobar		Invite
Eduardo Escobar	1	15.4
Freddy Galvis	2	14
Marwin Gonzalez	1	11
A. Hechavarria		Invite
Jose Iglesias	2	22.6
Manny Machado	10	250
Jordy Mercer	2	13
Eduardo Nunez p5	1	6.6
Jose Reyes		Invite
Eric Sogard	1	5.9

Machado's value of 10/250 is an astoundingly large contract.  With whispers of a 400 MM deal being considered by the Depot just a year and a half ago, the total value might feel lean.  It is good to remember though that 2017 was a rough offensive year for Manny and this year was a fairly unspectacular defensive one with a shift to Shortstop.  With that in mind, it makes sense that the model is not saying that Machado should be handed a deal that results in the air being sucked out of the industry.

But is the model unable to value machado properly because he is an exceptional talent?  Well, lets consider that by looking at two exceptional players: Mike Trout and Mookie Betts.  I think we can all agree that these guys are stunningly good baseball players.  What does BORAS think about them?

Mike Trout 12/407
Mookie Betts 12/417

That seems to sink that argument for Machado.  Again, one of the murmurs that has followed Machado for years has been when will he go from being one of the 20 best players in baseball to one of the all time greats.  He simply has not gotten there, but he seems to have that potential.  Will a club pay him like an all time great or will they pay him like a current great?

Once you get past Manny Machado, the shortstop position opens up to Asdrubal Cabrera, Eduardo Escobar, and Jose Iglesias.  Cabrera has put in a few good seasons and looks to benefit from those.  Escobar has rebounded nicely from his 2016 season and will probably squeaked out a three or four year deal around 10 MM per instead of the BORAS estimate of 1/15.4 (but who knows?).  Iglesias is fully converting his glove into money, which may or may not pan out.

All in all, looks like a decent set of projections.

BORAS Blowout 2018/19: Second Base

Catcher | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | LF | CF | RF | DH | SP

So far, we have looked at catchers and first basemen.  Today is second base.  Again, the BORAS model looks at historical performance and regresses it against contract values.  It is a multivariable, multistep approach.  We have been running the models for several years and they are one of the best projection tools for contract terms for regular players.  Things tend to drop off the table for role players or extreme platoon players.

	Years	Total (MM)
Asdrubal Cabrera	3	30.9
Daniel Descalso	2	18.8
Brian Dozier	2	28.4
Logan Forsythe	1	7.6
Marwin Gonzalez	1	11
Josh Harrison	2	18
Ian Kinsler	1	8.9
DJ LeMahieu	4	47.2
Jed Lowrie	4	56.4
Daniel Murphy	2	34.4
Eduardo Nunez	1	6.6
Jose Reyes		Invite
Sean Rodriguez	1	6.5
Eric Sogard	1	5.9
Neil Walker	2	18.2

For fun, I also ran former Orioles Jonathan Schoop through the model.  He is currently under contract with the Brewers and has one more arbitration year left if the Brewers wish to hold onto him.  BORAS thinks holding onto Schoop a bit of a wash and probably worth it.  If Schoop was a free agent, BORAS pegs him as a 5/52.5 player.  This past year undercut his projection by about 30 MM.

Overall, the numbers suggested here are not all that surprising.  Jed Lowrie would be signing through his age 38 year, but he has shown decent versatility and a good bat.  He is not exactly in the same class as when Ben Zobrist signed with the Cubs, but he is not far off.  My guess is that he gets three years and an option.

Daniel Murphy sees his years dwindle due to his acceptable, but not great year this past season.  The model still thinks he can garner something around 17 MM, which would surprise me.  However, he really is not all that far away from his offensive years.  Neil Walker is often thrown in the same bucket as Murphy, but Walker has taken more of a progressive nose dive.  The model can forgive a one year drop, but it finds trends harder to ignore.

Shortstops are next.

BORAS Blowout 2018/19: First Base

Catcher | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | LF | CF | RF | DH | SP

Yesterday, I wrote about catchers and a bit about the new BORAS model system this year.  Today, we move on to first basemen.  While catchers had a potentially big name in Yasmani Grandal, the big name here (Justin Smoak) has a club option for eight million, which seems like an easy decision for the Blue Jays to pick up as Smoak has accounted for quite a bit of offense these past few years in Toronto.

Here is the BORAS projection for first base.

	Years	Total (MM)
Matt Adams	1	11.1
Lucas Duda	2	18.2
Marwin Gonzalez	1	11
Joe Mauer	1	10
Logan Morrison m8	2	22.6
Steve Pearce	2	21.8
Hanley Ramirez	1	7.2
Mark Reynolds	1	8.5
Justin Smoak c8	3	44.1
Danny Valencia	1	7
Chris Davis		Invite
Mark Trumbo	1	8.3

As this is an Orioles site, I added two players who are not free agents, Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo. Neither live up to their current deals, but Davis is the hard one to take for Orioles fans.  BORAS is so unimpressed with Davis that the invite status is an incredibly kind designation.  For Trumbo, there is an upside there.  He notoriously underperforms as a designated hitter, but if he had put up his on field batting numbers while at first base then he would be looking at something more in the neighborhood of 3/40 or even more.

All in all, the numbers above look about right with a few issues.  BORAS does not know that Valencia is a weakside platoon bat, that will drop his value in the open market (not to mention the mumbling of clubhouse concerns).  Reynolds and Ramirez also feel a bit high as they are uneven veterans with younger talent undermining their value.

BORAS loves it some Steve Pearce.  It always has and it really has always been correct about his value, if not his contract terms.  Teams seem to be concerned about his injuries, streaky bat, and positional concerns, but he always seems to do well as a strong role player.  His arm may not be what it was, but he should be a highly sought after bench/role bat.

BORAS seems a little confused by Marwin Gonzalez and his 1/11 deal seems a little rough.  I see Gonzalez as a healthier Steve Pearce.  These are the kind of guys teams really need.  Their bat can be surprisingly good and they positional flexibility enables a team to use the best player available in the minors when an injury arises instead of the best available player at a given position.  My best is that teams are willing to hand over a greater commitment to Gonzalez.

All in all, I think the projections are roughly about where they should be given that this system does well with 2+ year commitments and AAVs over 8 MM.

BORAS Blowout 2018/19: Intro and Catchers

For the past several Octobers (give or take an extended playoff appearance), the writers here at Camden Depot would put together organizational blueprints for the off season to suggest what the Orioles should do to improve the squad.  That will not happen this year.  However, a major component of that work was our contract projection model: BORAS.

Catcher | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | LF | CF | RF | DH | SP

In case you forgot or never knew, BORAS takes into consideration several characteristics of a player (e.g., age, offensive performance, defensive performance, historical contract comparisons) and uses that information to project what the new contract will look like.  Each year, we add on another season of data and try to tinker with the model to improve upon it.  This year, the primary model improvement comes from using a batch age model to weight things differently.

Our first series of posts will consider BORAS(po), the position player contract model.  What we found was that younger players and older players were really being valued differently beyond their age.  For instance, our analysis suggests that older players are sought after for their offense with considerably less value placed on their defense.  If we look at encapsulated metrics, defense was valued about half as much on a per run basis as offense was in the 31 and older player set.  For 30 year olds and younger, the value gap shrank from 52% to 17%.  Differences like these can really impact the quality of a model.  By taking these into consideration, we improved the performance of our model internally by about 15%.

In the past, I would just drop the whole player list and then run away.  This year, we will try to be more comprehensive and cover a large swath of the player market as well as putting in some arbitration eligible Orioles because...eh, why not?  Again the caveats remain as they have in the past.  This model does not know about injuries or suspensions.  This model is based on a data set that largely ignores players who get bench level playing time.  Those can be two major blindspots at times.  Finally, our first post here deals with catchers and this model has always struggled with catchers.  In my opinion, this will probably be the worst performing projection group.

BORAS(po) 2018/19 Catcher contract projections

	Years	Total (MM)
Drew Butera		Invite
Robinson Chirinos	1	9.9
AJ Ellis	1	6
Yasmani Grandal	3	45.3
Nick Hundley	1	5.6
Jonathan Lucroy	1	4.4
Martin Maldonado	1	4.6
Jeff Mathis		Invite
Brian McCann	1	7.7
Devin Mesoraco	2	14.9
Wilson Ramos	3	26.3
Rene Rivera	1	7
Kurt Suzuki	2	20
Matt Wieters	1	4.1
Caleb Joseph	1	3.9

The adjustments made this year have resulted in a much more competent model at first look, but there are a couple peculiar projections.  I have a hard time seeing Suzuki making 2/20 even though he has experienced a bit of a late career bloom.  Second, I think the model might be a bit too hard on Wilson Ramos who has had to deal with some misfortune with respect to his health.  I also think Ramos gets dinged a bit due to his poor base running, which I think in general does not impact catchers all that much when it comes to signing a contract.

As this is an Orioles blog, I added arbitration eligible Caleb Joseph.  He should be looking at 1.5 to 2 MM in arbitration while BORAS projects Joseph to be worth slightly more in the open market.  With the Orioles organization in possession of a few decent catchers that would come in under the 1.5 MM mark, it may well make sense to non-tender Joseph even though his arbitration value might be a slight bargain.

Tomorrow, I will post first basemen.