05 October 2018

BORAS Blowout 2018/19: Shortstops

Catcher | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | LF | CF | RF | DH | SP

As I have marched through the model projections, today was one that quite a few folks had circled with some anticipation.  I mentioned the projection on twitter, but here it is in its full glory. Shortstops (aka Manny Machado and some other guys).
Years Total (MM)
Elvis Andrus p58 1 10.5
Asdrubal Cabrera 3 30.9
Alcides Escobar Invite
Eduardo Escobar 1 15.4
Freddy Galvis 2 14
Marwin Gonzalez 1 11
A. Hechavarria Invite
Jose Iglesias 2 22.6
Manny Machado 10 250
Jordy Mercer 2 13
Eduardo Nunez p5 1 6.6
Jose Reyes Invite
Eric Sogard 1 5.9
Machado's value of 10/250 is an astoundingly large contract.  With whispers of a 400 MM deal being considered by the Depot just a year and a half ago, the total value might feel lean.  It is good to remember though that 2017 was a rough offensive year for Manny and this year was a fairly unspectacular defensive one with a shift to Shortstop.  With that in mind, it makes sense that the model is not saying that Machado should be handed a deal that results in the air being sucked out of the industry.

But is the model unable to value machado properly because he is an exceptional talent?  Well, lets consider that by looking at two exceptional players: Mike Trout and Mookie Betts.  I think we can all agree that these guys are stunningly good baseball players.  What does BORAS think about them?
Mike Trout 12/407
Mookie Betts 12/417
That seems to sink that argument for Machado.  Again, one of the murmurs that has followed Machado for years has been when will he go from being one of the 20 best players in baseball to one of the all time greats.  He simply has not gotten there, but he seems to have that potential.  Will a club pay him like an all time great or will they pay him like a current great?

Once you get past Manny Machado, the shortstop position opens up to Asdrubal Cabrera, Eduardo Escobar, and Jose Iglesias.  Cabrera has put in a few good seasons and looks to benefit from those.  Escobar has rebounded nicely from his 2016 season and will probably squeaked out a three or four year deal around 10 MM per instead of the BORAS estimate of 1/15.4 (but who knows?).  Iglesias is fully converting his glove into money, which may or may not pan out.

All in all, looks like a decent set of projections.

12 comments:

Elisabeth Hill said...

Nobody is going to give the Tiger SS 22 million dollars. Most of these are way overblown. Boras has cost many of his clients their careers with his foolish demands.

Jon Shepherd said...

You have been here over a year delivering some uninformed comments and here is another one. You should be well aware of this model. Please try a little harder.

Rich said...

Can you run the BORAS model on Villar and the projected numbers of our SS prospects? Why pay veteran FAs market value when a defense-first rookie is gonna give you way better bang for the buck relative to WAR?

PTCello said...

The Orioles don’t have enough warm bodies to fill all their position spots, but wouldn’t it be the most prudent course to save money and just sign minor-league free agents? There’s not really any point to signing anyone significant, because even if they’re good the money spent on them will be essentially wasted on a bad team we don’t have enough money to sign Enough meaningful guys, so for once, the washed up veteran, or the lottery ticket minor leaguer is actually the best course of action, isn’t it?

Rich said...

To add to what GM Macphail said: grow the arms and premium defensive position players, buy the cheap big bats at DH, 1B, & LF (to a lesser degree RF).

Jon Shepherd said...

Rich - BORAS cannot project from minor league careers. There needs to be a decent amount of MLB experience. Villar is a bit of an enigma and BORAS is very bullish on him with 6/60.6, which is basically how Schoop is valued. Beckham comes out as 2/15.

PTCello - There is little reason for the club to spend significant money on free agency. They need to look for some upside, but not get bogged down too much in anything considered a long term deal. They should be merely looking for stabilizing influences who do not get in the way.

Rich - MacPhail was more about the arms, he tried to purchase/trade for talent up the middle. It also is a questionable practice because batting is more projectable than pitching, so high end draft prospects probably should lean toward the bat side and then flip that once you get to rounds 2 or 3.

aj barrell said...

They still need to field a team next year. If i was the Os id wait out the first wave of FA and take a few fliers on people whose price drops. Inglesas
And Andrus are two who could be had at decent 2 or 3 year deals. Current roster infielders for next year are flexible.

That and maybe taking salary dumps with remaining payroll for prospects. Dont see it often im baseball but its widely done in the NBA and NHL. Sadly tho based on the fact they salary dumped O day at the deadline I doubt anything has changed on the owners miserly ways.

aj barrell said...

Basically how the Braves got the really good SP prospect Touisant from the Diamondbacks 2ish years ago. Not many Teams are that short sighted anymore but maybe if they fish they could find a good offer.

Rich said...

Orioles SS depth: mlb = Villar; AAA = none; AA = none; A+ = Grenier; A = Hall; A- = Jean Carmona

I would say that this lack of depth is one of many reasons why DD was let go. And if he couldn't persuade ownership to invest more internationally, then he's the wrong guy for the job. A big part of being GM is to save ownership from themselves.

Elisabeth Hill said...

Boras has cost many players their careers with his demands. Mr Shepherd, you need a little thicker skin, don't be so sensitive.

Jon Shepherd said...

Your comment about Boras is tangential nonsense. This article has nothing to do with Boras. It is the BORAS model we have used for years.

Rich said...

Every place has its nut jobs.