04 October 2018

BORAS Blowout 2018/19: Second Base

Catcher | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | LF | CF | RF | DH | SP

So far, we have looked at catchers and first basemen.  Today is second base.  Again, the BORAS model looks at historical performance and regresses it against contract values.  It is a multivariable, multistep approach.  We have been running the models for several years and they are one of the best projection tools for contract terms for regular players.  Things tend to drop off the table for role players or extreme platoon players.
Years Total (MM)
Asdrubal Cabrera 3 30.9
Daniel Descalso 2 18.8
Brian Dozier 2 28.4
Logan Forsythe 1 7.6
Marwin Gonzalez 1 11
Josh Harrison 2 18
Ian Kinsler 1 8.9
DJ LeMahieu 4 47.2
Jed Lowrie 4 56.4
Daniel Murphy 2 34.4
Eduardo Nunez 1 6.6
Jose Reyes Invite
Sean Rodriguez 1 6.5
Eric Sogard 1 5.9
Neil Walker 2 18.2
For fun, I also ran former Orioles Jonathan Schoop through the model.  He is currently under contract with the Brewers and has one more arbitration year left if the Brewers wish to hold onto him.  BORAS thinks holding onto Schoop a bit of a wash and probably worth it.  If Schoop was a free agent, BORAS pegs him as a 5/52.5 player.  This past year undercut his projection by about 30 MM.

Overall, the numbers suggested here are not all that surprising.  Jed Lowrie would be signing through his age 38 year, but he has shown decent versatility and a good bat.  He is not exactly in the same class as when Ben Zobrist signed with the Cubs, but he is not far off.  My guess is that he gets three years and an option.

Daniel Murphy sees his years dwindle due to his acceptable, but not great year this past season.  The model still thinks he can garner something around 17 MM, which would surprise me.  However, he really is not all that far away from his offensive years.  Neil Walker is often thrown in the same bucket as Murphy, but Walker has taken more of a progressive nose dive.  The model can forgive a one year drop, but it finds trends harder to ignore.

Shortstops are next.

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