tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28935123179025774582024-03-14T00:42:24.824-04:00Camden DepotBaltimore Orioles Affiliate in ESPN's Sweetspot NetworkJon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comBlogger2200125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-36357700410679716862018-11-01T06:01:00.000-04:002018-11-01T06:01:16.902-04:00Schrödinger's FarewellOn June 29, 2007, two things happened: Garabez Rosa was having his first professional experiences in the Dominican Summer League within the Orioles organization and I was making my transition from being a regular on the Orioles Baltimore Sun message board to a more fixed residence here at Camden Depot. That first season, I basically had time on my hands in the midst of running laboratory experiments and was trying to figure out if I actually had anything to offer the local blogging community with the skills I was acquiring in my chosen profession.<br />
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As the years passed, I think the answer was indeed yes. I along with others who came for the ride were able to take this fledgling of a site and turn it into a place where the baseball industry took notice. I was once offered a position as well as several of my contributors, two of whom actually now work for organizations. A couple others now work fully professionally at media outlets like The Athletic. Others have taken off into the sunset to join sites like Baseball Prospectus or to form their own, like 2080 Baseball.<br />
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That sense of community, that sense of growth and accruing of baseball knowledge meant something to me. Long ago, I knew as much as I loved baseball, it did not have my heart and for me to go into a field, at the bottom, with terrible pay, that I would need to have that unconditional desire to succeed. I did not have that. I had the skills, but not the want. Nowadays, I lack the want and the database skills and it is something that is impacting the work here as well. With a more archaic ability to handle data, I rarely get that call out of the blue from someone in baseball wanting to discuss something a little further. My days as a sounding board are transitioning to days of being a friend. While I still have a know how for developing methodology and planning how to solve problems, it reduces the imprint we leave when we find an ever growing inability to actually carry out those goals.<br />
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In addition to that, I have found a lack of community in the local blog ecosystem. Good work and thoughts can be found at places like Orioles Hangout, Baltimore Sports and Life, Camden Chat, Eutaw Street Report, and others. That said, the musketeer nature that existed when I began this romp with Camden Crazies, Dempsey's Army, and others is no longer there. Back then, we were excited about our own little dirt hills along with being confused and exhilarated that we had any impact. It felt a little revolutionary. It felt a little subversive. It was fun. Days over 100 views were celebrated. Back then to know one day we would count by thousands, or more if it strikes the right vein, would have seemed unimaginable.<br />
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As time passed, frustration and poor communication have littered this part of the woods with egg shells. The internet has rowdy interactions at times and, for me, I basically assumed it as such. When a message board community made fun of me for having a five minute ALS water challenge video where I discussed how the disease has impacted my family and how important sustained federal funding is for diseases like this, those attacks were tolerated by my site runner peers. But, again, that cruelness and indifference is something that just often comes with this territory. Though it was surprising to find the same site coddling local media. If you criticize the process taken by a local writer for an established media site, the site runners for that message board community deletes those comments and openly acknowledges that they censor criticism of those writers because they fear that their dirt hill of a site will be adversely impacted by an angry sportswriter. That undermining of taking a journey of truth, taking oneself oh so seriously when what we do on this edge of the internet is fairly without any gravity, any importance. Yes, we can leave an imprint, but you cannot eat that, you cannot accrue interest. To defend so heartily this mound of dirt, to me, shows a lack of awareness of where we exist. At the very least, that sort of catering finds us in a much different environment than what we were all doing a decade ago.<br />
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To a greater extent, I think that belief in self-importance infects the sports writing world and easily spreads the contagion. Branding is something that has emerged intensely over the past dozen years. At first, it was a way to stylize your writing, to stand out amongst all the others putting their electricity to write words. Jason Parks, to me, most memorably stamped his Brand while discussing prospects for Baseball Prospectus along with an equally adept Kevin Goldstein. Ice cream in extra innings became a thing. Prospect language shortly became quite sexually explicit in an ironic tone that now looks incredibly dated. I think their success made others think they needed to more fully embrace the concept of Brand. Eventually, though, I think Brand made a transition from style to lifestyle, from accessory to being the main article of expression. The writers replaced themselves with the Brand they created.<br />
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Misuse of science is an area that annoys me greatly. Writers who choose the brand of being evidence-based, science-first writers are almost to a rule either misleading you or are woefully blind to their own limitations. It is frightful to see a sportswriter proclaim on twitter about how he knows about a topic because he read a peer-reviewed scientific journal article. I mean, it is good to read those and try to comprehend them, but a smart baseball writer would use that to gain some background to then go and intelligently interview an expert in that field. I mean, I am a toxicologist. I know a lot about that. I can read a journal article and slash it to pieces if it is done poorly because I have decades of experience with it. You hand me something in a related field with a technique I am unfamiliar with like urban ecology, I can probably fake it, but before I make any grand statements or encourage people to do anything about it I better go talk to someone who actually knows about it.<br />
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Credibility is a major issue in baseball writing. People think they know about medicine and arm injuries by talking to a carnival barking throwing guru who dabbles in science like an alchemist would. People think any complex issue, such as sexual abuse and ex-convict reintegration, is a binary argument where you must choose a side instead of recognizing that there is nuance in a horrible situation. There is a fear of not knowing when so much of life is not known. Writers seem to want to avoid that aspect that we all tend to know is true about the things they discuss. That uncertainty is ignored, papered over, denied. The idea that there can be growth on a subject, a thinking process, a change of opinion appears quite foreign in this field. Few acknowledge ever being wrong and most try to emphasize how they were in the know before anyone else.<br />
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As a writer, I have been pulled in directions that I do not wish to go in. I try to keep true to my principles and move forward. I have had material censored, understandably, from MASN and then got it published, understandably, without a word changed at ESPN. When I see room for growth or simply intellectual laziness in other writing, I try to critically criticize that. I tried over these dozen years to truly keep in step with the goal of describing reality. To try my best to know what is really going on. Brand conflicts with that. Brand now owns some. I think, many people have lost their way or have become disenchanted with it. I think a lot of writers are lost.<br />
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The disillusionment, isolation, and frustration of writers is expected. This market is one that exploits those who can write and those who inexplicably think they can write. In 2011, ESPN came to me and asked me if I was interested in having ESPN affiliate themselves with Camden Depot. Their initial offer was for me to put in a few months, writing two to three posts a day, and working up to doing a once a week item for the main site. I bristled at the volume and negotiated a once a day, five days a week, obligation. They agreed. I inked the contract while watching Robin Hood Men in Tights around the same time a SEAL team had arrived at Osama Bin Laden's compound.<br />
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It seemed like a good deal. ESPN is a known entity in sports writing. It would add credibility, maybe some doors would open. Maybe this would lead to an interesting path. However, I also could see the landscape and recognize that cheap writing was plentiful with ESPN trying to figure out how to get in on it. That is why I held back and refused to commit anything more than an article a day, five days a week.<br />
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No money was mentioned except for a $75 flat rate per article for the home site, a fee I never bothered collecting when I wrote for them. At other places like Bleacher Report, SBN, FanSided, etc. the pay scale is worse. Writers put in hours and hours often thinking that maybe this is a path for them. Often they find relief in the few that break through, a few that never should have been using it as a path to journalism. Often they do not see the difference in their own ability and that of those who graduated. So what you mostly have is an exploited class of effectively unpaid workers. They get stuck in the process and prevent themselves from other opportunities that could elevate them.<br />
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At the Depot, I never promised any opportunity. I noted that we had a platform, but that I refused to take a dime for it. In a dozen years, we never accepted any money in writing this site. I never got paid. I never put on an advertisement where I or my contributors earned any income. I felt it necessary to present this site as purely academic. To present the site to writers as something you do when you feel compelled to do it organically as opposed to feeling that you have to write. The idea was that this site would be one of passion and a search for reality. To figure out how things worked at the writer's own leisure. I think that perspective made it easier for long term writers to write and hone their abilities. I think it let passionate writers driven to become professionals in this field to become that. I think the model enabled writers to get their head up and notice other opportunities in the field that could take them higher.<br />
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I think that model worked and still works. I think that sites like SBN and FanSided are exploitative and immoral even when adults are giving their consent to be used by that system. Those systems are grinding pyramid platforms with those on top profiting on the toil of writers below. I would also contend that the greatest issue is not really about pay, but about the amount of work they demand without any intention for the writers to be fairly paid. This creates conflict, stress, and frustration. It rises up to making people think these things that are largely unimportant are actually important and can lead somewhere desirable. And, while the writers are often complicit in their own situation, I would suggest that the audience the sites cater to also share in the exploitation of the writers.<br />
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As consumers of these media sites, I think you should care about how your writers are treated. Maybe I am wrong, but I think you should avoid the most exploitative media entities. You should be attracted to sites that genuinely push fan writing forward. You should be attracted to sites that try to pass as much money as possible to their writers without working their writers to the bone. You should definitely subscribe to local newspaper with solid reporters like Jon Meoli at the Baltimore Sun. You should try to empower alternative methods to empower writers like the effort with the local Baltimore Athletic site.<br />
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Writers are people. People's time is worth money. As consumers of media, we should recognize these things. We should be willing to put our money where our eyes go. We should be supportive of good, genuine work. We should hesitate to benefit groups that are the worst actors in this field. These are my thoughts. Maybe, these thoughts are wrong. They do not feel wrong today.<br />
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While this final post is one where I step up on a soapbox and wish for things to be different, I must state that this has been a wonderful ride. I met a lot of cool people. I learned so much over the last decade and it has vastly changed my perspective. I have developed such a greater appreciation for those who write as those who are in the industry. Their skill and ability are often overshadowed by a cutting comment by those on the outside who truly do not appreciate what it takes to get to this level or how the inside world of baseball almost always is light years ahead of what is happening outside.<br />
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ESPN treated us well. They demanded a crazy and exploitative structure like SBN or FanSided, but let us do our own thing and at our own pace. The Sweetspot experiment has unraveled over the years, neglected, but those first few years it was truly a great time where a lot could happen. MASN was a fun venture and they let us do things that were not within the criteria of their desire for fan posts. We ignored the idea of fan posts and, to some extent, changed their format, broadened it for those following. That said, we pushed boundaries and it was understandable why we eventually amicably split.<br />
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The Orioles also did very well by us. They welcomed us into the press box. We liked to keep our distance, but the beat crew was always pleasant to us almost to a man. Roch, Brittany, and Eddie were great. Jon Meoli came in right when we stopped hitting the games. Moments on the field and chatting about nuances in baseball with players and front office personnel were rare events, but illuminating and enjoyable. Being able to get into the underbelly of the stadium for press events was also rare, but great. Amanda Sarver and others made our inclusion into events rather seamless. I am quite thankful for them all.<br />
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With this, I bid farewell. An excellent ride. Lots of memories to cherish and lessons that I have learned. With no good reason, the world of baseball opened up to me and let me try to know it. Now, this time seems done. Perhaps, my journey will continue in other ways, public and private. Perhaps, I may even come back to this site in the future. I doubt I will, but I shall leave the door ajar with the utilities disconnected.<br />
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Take care.Jon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-55131979806393282852018-10-31T06:00:00.000-04:002018-10-31T09:18:46.278-04:00Scattered to the Winds...As of November 1st, you may find our past writers...<br />
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<a href="https://twitter.com/jsbearr?lang=en" target="_blank">Jon Shepherd</a> - Taking a long walk.<br />
<a href="https://twitter.com/mattkremnitzer?lang=en" target="_blank">Matt Kremnitzer</a> - Matt left the Depot this past year to join the Athletic - Baltimore. His writing at his personal site impressed me and I got him to agree to come on about five or six years ago. He was a great addition and was the leader of the site for a year as a took a break and joined Baseball Prospectus for a failed attempt at creating a data based model for prospects that merged qualitative and quantitative metrics. Matt can write about anything and make it interesting, which is probably why you should subscribe to the Athletic.<br />
<a href="https://twitter.com/OriolesPG?lang=en" target="_blank">Nate Delong</a> - I found Nate over at Orioles Proving Ground. He became quite important in carrying on the torch of our podcast, the Camden Highball (which was a drink we created that mixes Orange Crush with what wound up to be your choice of whiskey (the Buck), vodka (the Pearce), or gin (the Jones)). I believe he left the game.<br />
<a href="https://russianmachineneverbreaks.com/author/patrick-holden/" target="_blank">Patrick Holden</a> - Patrick was more or less the brother at arms with Nate. They both onboarded at the same time and I somehow lodged into my brain they were the same people. Patrick moved on to a hockey focus and for a few years I kept sending him updates because I could not get my brain to work.<br />
<a href="https://twitter.com/NickJFaleris?lang=en" target="_blank">Nick Faleris</a> - I met Nick over at the old Baltimore Sun message board. I grew tired with the transient nature of comments on a message board, so I created the Depot. Nick's scouting perspective was a solid addition to the site and he became an equal for several years. Moving on from the Depot, he has had many hats. He did some associate scout work for a MLB team, created his own scouting consultation group, led Baseball Prospectus' scouting department for a bit after current Diamondbacks Assistant GM Jason Parks left, and then helped create the new venture 2080 Baseball.<br />
<a href="https://twitter.com/TClippardsSpecs?lang=en" target="_blank">Stuart Wallace</a> - Stuart was brought on from his personal site to the Depot. He had a great eye for detail and communicated it well for our baseball science push. We had him for a year or two before he graduated to the Pirates and then promoted as he transitioned to the Reds.<br />
<a href="https://twitter.com/FanOfLaundry?lang=en" target="_blank">Matt Perez</a> - Matt was a writer's writer. His posts were heavy and some patience was needed, but he churned out solid work. He addressed the overwrought concept of There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect, identifying how scouting and development improvements have progressively made it easier to project pitchers in comparison to projecting hitters. He also broke up the 40-60-80 arbitration idea. He was also the best source of MASN dispute news on the internets.<br />
<a href="https://twitter.com/pjd0014?lang=en" target="_blank">Patrick Doughterty</a> - Patrick is a great data visualist. His main claim to fame here was helping me implement out batting order optimization program that took a look at sequencing. Existing optimizers merely looked at each player in the lineup in a vacuum while we decided to see how the players in front of each batter impacted their own ability to drive in runs. It was one of the last articles that spawned conversations with front office executives. That used to be a common thing when we started, but the talent in the field has grown astronomically. It really has been an amazing twelve years of baseball.<br />
Joe Reisel - Joe was our Norfolk connection for many years. He worked for John Dewan's BIS, logging games with data that helped determine fielding ability and other descriptors of play.<br />
<a href="https://twitter.com/AviMiIIer?lang=en" target="_blank">Avi Miller</a> - Avi is a veteran of the golden age of Baltimore baseball blogging and pulled in a short tenure with us before departing for good. We will always remember him for accidentally purchasing an entire section of tickets off of StubHub.<br />
Elie Waitzer - Waitzer was a solid writer with a good eye for visuals. He wrote for us for a short bit before dedicating himself back to school and working on a law degree. Glad my recommendation helped or maybe glad it didn't hurt too much. His twitter is now defunct.<br />
<a href="https://twitter.com/JeffLongBP?lang=en" target="_blank">Jeff Long</a> - Jeff consults for a professional team now. After he did some platform broadening with us, he went on to Baseball Prospectus where he made quite an impact. If you do not know his name, then you have not been paying attention. Funny, his capstone work on tunneling actually echoes something I wrote about years ago that he never read. His work came in at a different angle and never exactly reflected my abstract hypotheses, but seeing it come to fruition through another path was truly a joy to see. What he and his co-authors did was well beyond what I imagined. Now, get on those visual aspects!<br />
Chris Lindsay - Lindsay loved peppering his conversations with obscure European conflicts, which was something only I enjoyed. He wrote several things for us about the World Baseball Classic. Last I heard, he was out scouting in the hinterlands.<br />
<a href="https://twitter.com/CamdenCrazies?lang=en" target="_blank">Daniel Moroz</a> - Moroz read our site, got inspired and delivered Frost King Baseball and then Camden Crazies, which rode the baseball blog boom to stardom. Moroz was behind the first wave of smart and witty t-shirts, which was overwhelmed by far less witty and more easily accessible t-shirts. Before he burned out in the 2012 craziness, he wrote for us for a bit. Every year or two, I asked if he was going to get back into the game. Always hoping.<br />
<a href="https://twitter.com/triple_r_" target="_blank">Ryan Romano</a> - Ryan popped up on our radar as an incredibly frustrating and overly confidant teenager that peppered our site with criticisms, many valid but all fairly obnoxious. He grew up and is moving into actual journalism. He is finishing up at UMD as the editor of their paper, but has done rotations for the Roanoke Times and the Tampa Bay Times (which is where for Sun writer Eddie Encina is now covering the Bucs, I am sure Ryan put a good word in).<br />
<a href="https://twitter.com/ryry9379" target="_blank">Ryan Pollack</a> - The second Ryan came to us from Camden Chat to write in a different format with a different tone as he was crossing platforms. He has been an active member in the central Texas SABR chapter. He currently applies his wares at The Hardball Times and Beyond the Box Score. I think he has a podcast, too. Or he did.<br />
<a href="https://twitter.com/gibsonandrew?lang=en" target="_blank">Andrew Gibson</a> - He never wrote for us, but he contributed on our original podcast format. After a few years at BIS, he was snapped up from the Pirates and progressed through their system.<br />
<a href="https://twitter.com/1863_project?lang=en" target="_blank">Steph Diorio</a> - Steph was our resident cartoonist for a few years. She is still creating.<br />
<a href="https://twitter.com/jonbernhardt" target="_blank">Jonathan Bernhardt</a> - Jonathan wrote for us for a very short bit before editors at large realized too his talent. He moved on to many entities during the sports media online boom and now writes for the Athletic Baltimore site as well as a couple other locales.<br />
<a href="https://twitter.com/zachmariner?lang=en" target="_blank">Zach Mariner</a> - While in college Zach wrote a few items for us and then graduated on to ESPN where he is now a senior researcher.<br />
Joe Wantz - A solid contributor over the past year.Jon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-17765980524878236882018-10-30T11:00:00.001-04:002018-10-30T11:19:48.557-04:00BORAS Blowout 2018/19: Pitcher-paloozaAs noted before, the BORAS model does not look at relievers, so starting pitching is the final post of the BORAS model blowout this offseason. Other positions we have covered are:<br />
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<a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-intro-and-catchers.html" target="_blank">Catcher</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-first-base.html" target="_blank">1B</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-second-base.html" target="_blank">2B</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-shortstops.html" target="_blank">SS</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-third-base.html" target="_blank">3B</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-left-field.html" target="_blank">LF</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-centerfield.html" target="_blank">CF</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-right-field.html" target="_blank">RF</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-designated-hitters.html" target="_blank">DH</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-pitcher-palooza.html" target="_blank">SP</a><br />
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As a reminder, the BORAS model looks at contracts signed from 2013/14-2017/18 in relationship to performance and biological metrics. Basically, how good were they in the years leading up to the contract, what type of player is he, and how old is he. Over the years, the model in whole has finished as the most accurate or second most accurate every single year for players who signed multi-year deals above 8 MM per year. Below those markets and the certainty in the projections decreases significantly.<br />
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Below are included several player who have player or team options. Chris Sale will not be let out of his contract, so there goes a big name. The same with Carrasco. David Price will not see in the market what his current contract hands him, so he will stay. An intriguing name below is Clayton Kershaw. He has two years and 65 MM left to him on his current deal, but can opt out. BORAS comes up with his market value as 4/88, which sounds like maybe he should not opt out. BORAS worries about the missed time Kershaw has experienced over the past few years and his age.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 272px;">
<colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 5266; mso-width-source: userset; width: 108pt;" width="144"></col>
<col span="2" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="40" style="height: 30.0pt;">
<td height="40" style="height: 30pt; text-align: center; width: 108pt;" width="144"><br /></td>
<td class="xl65" style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64">Year</td>
<td class="xl65" style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64">Total</td>
</tr>
<tr height="25" style="height: 18.75pt; mso-height-source: userset;">
<td height="25" style="height: 18.75pt; text-align: center;">Madison Bumgarner</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">24.6</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Clay Buchholz</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">17.2</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Trevor Cahill</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">19.4</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Carlos Carrasco</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">6</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">160</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Bartolo Colon</td>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Invite</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Patrick Corbin</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">7</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">182</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Marco Estrada</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">8.7</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Nathan Eovaldi</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">21.4</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Doug Fister</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">4.9</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Jaime Garcia</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">5.8</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Gio Gonzalez</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">3</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">43.8</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Miguel Gonzalez</td>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Invite</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Cole Hamels</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">27</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Jason Hammel</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">6.3</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">JA Happ</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">3</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">51.6</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Matt Harvey</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">12.1</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Jeremy Hellickson</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">8.6</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Derek Holland</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">15.4</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Clayton kershaw</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">4</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">88</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Dallas Keuchel</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">5</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">84</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Francisco Liriano</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">3.8</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Jordan Lyles</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">9.8</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Lance Lynn</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">3</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">37.5</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Wade Miley</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">17</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Matt Moore</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">4.6</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Charlie Morton</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">3</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">46.2</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Martin Perez</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">6.7</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Drew Pomeranz</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">8.1</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">David Price</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">3</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">46.5</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Garrett Richards</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">14.4</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Tyson Ross</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">10.2</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Hyun-Jin Ryu</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">3</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">29.7</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">CC Sabathia</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">25.2</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Chris Sale</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">8</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">286</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Anibal Sanchez</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">18.6</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Ervin Santana</td>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Invite</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Hector Santiago</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2.6</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">James Shields</td>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Invite</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Chris Tillman</td>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Invite</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Josh Tomlin</td>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Invite</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Adam Wainwright</td>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Invite</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</blockquote>
It appears that the 2018/19 off season will be like the 2016/17 offseason where no truly front end talent is available.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Jon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-50163566376047593912018-10-29T15:27:00.003-04:002018-10-30T11:20:04.980-04:00BORAS Blowout 2018/19: Designated Hitters<a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-intro-and-catchers.html" target="_blank">Catcher</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-first-base.html" target="_blank">1B</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-second-base.html" target="_blank">2B</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-shortstops.html" target="_blank">SS</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-third-base.html" target="_blank">3B</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-left-field.html" target="_blank">LF</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-centerfield.html" target="_blank">CF</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-right-field.html" target="_blank">RF</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-designated-hitters.html" target="_blank">DH</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-pitcher-palooza.html" target="_blank">SP</a><br />
<br />
Yeah, the month is coming to an end, so we are data dumping.<br />
<br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 282px;">
<colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 4677; mso-width-source: userset; width: 101pt;" width="134"></col>
<col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 2932; mso-width-source: userset; width: 63pt;" width="84"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt; text-align: center; width: 101pt;" width="134"></td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64">Years</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 63pt;" width="84">Total (MM)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt; text-align: center;">Pedro Alvarez</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">9.1</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt; text-align: center;">Nelson Cruz</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">38</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt; text-align: center;">Evan Gattis</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">18.2</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt; text-align: center;">Victor Martinez</td>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Invite</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
Jon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-66367359134553824252018-10-26T15:15:00.001-04:002018-10-30T11:20:16.003-04:00BORAS Blowout 2018/19: Right Field<a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-intro-and-catchers.html" target="_blank">Catcher</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-first-base.html" target="_blank">1B</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-second-base.html" target="_blank">2B</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-shortstops.html" target="_blank">SS</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-third-base.html" target="_blank">3B</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-left-field.html" target="_blank">LF</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-centerfield.html" target="_blank">CF</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-right-field.html" target="_blank">RF</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-designated-hitters.html" target="_blank">DH</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-pitcher-palooza.html" target="_blank">SP</a><br />
<br />
Just chopping some wood, clearing out the BORAS modeling projections. Here is right field:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 272px;">
<colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 4681; mso-width-source: userset; width: 96pt;" width="128"></col>
<col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 2925; mso-width-source: userset; width: 60pt;" width="80"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center; width: 96pt;" width="128"></td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64">Years</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 60pt;" width="80">Total (MM)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Jose Bautista</td>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Invite</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Melky Cabrera</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">7.7</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Lonnie Chisenhall</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">3</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">31.5</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Curtis Granderson</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">11</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Carlos Gomez</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">8.1</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Carlos Gonzalez</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">14.5</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Brandon Guyer</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">7.3</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Bryce Harper</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">7</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">138.6</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Jason Heyward</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">22.4</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Matt Joyce</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">11</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Nick Markakis</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">17.6</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Andrew McCutchen</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">3</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">45.6</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Hunter Pence</td>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Invite</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Yasmany Tomas</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">4</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">46.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</blockquote>
BORAS model really thinks Bryce Harper will get a fairly underwhelming deal in comparison to the murmurings of a 400 MM contract for the past few years. Some thought the 10/250 Manny projection felt light and, well, a Harper deal of seven years just shy of a 20 MM annual value will result in some tsk-tsking. Regardless, while he has shown glimmers of brilliance, he also seems to have some shortcomings that undermine that value.<br />
<br />
A second interesting note is that BORAS thinks Adam Jones is more valuable than Nick Markakis. I think a lot of folks will disagree with that. I ran an unscientific twitter poll a while back and four to one think Markakis will see a better pay day.<br />
<br />
My last thought is on Yasmany Tomas, who will not opt out of his deal. That said, 4/46.4 would not be happening for him.<br />
<br />Jon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-52144462586504050822018-10-19T06:00:00.000-04:002018-10-30T11:20:24.412-04:00BORAS Blowout 2018/19: Centerfield<a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-intro-and-catchers.html" target="_blank">Catcher</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-first-base.html" target="_blank">1B</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-second-base.html" target="_blank">2B</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-shortstops.html" target="_blank">SS</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-third-base.html" target="_blank">3B</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-left-field.html" target="_blank">LF</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-centerfield.html" target="_blank">CF</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-right-field.html" target="_blank">RF</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-designated-hitters.html" target="_blank">DH</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-pitcher-palooza.html" target="_blank">SP</a><br />
<br />
The BORAS model projections for centerfield are a bit more interesting than the other recent ones. One, it takes a look at what Adam Jones can expect. Two, I decided to take a gander at two player who are not free agents: Mike Trout and non-centerfielder Mookie Betts.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 272px;">
<colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 4681; mso-width-source: userset; width: 96pt;" width="128"></col>
<col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 2925; mso-width-source: userset; width: 60pt;" width="80"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center; width: 96pt;" width="128"></td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64">Years</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 60pt;" width="80">Total (MM)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Gregor Blanco</td>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Invite</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Rajai Davis</td>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Invite</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Craig Gentry</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">7.6</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Carlos Gomez</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">8.1</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Jon Jay</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">8</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Adam Jones</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">18.7</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Leonys Martin</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">3</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">19</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Cameron Maybin</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">9</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Andrew McCutchen</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">3</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">45.6</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">AJ Pollock</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">3</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">38.1</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Denard Span</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">20.4</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Mike Trout</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">12</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">407</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Mookie Betts</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">12</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">417</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</blockquote>
Lets talk Adam Jones first. Last year, I made some favorable assumptions and pegged Jones as looking forward to a 2/22 extension. I cannot find the series of tweets, but someone tagged him on the projection and he voiced his displeasure at the number. 2018 was not exactly kind to Jones in a few ways, including his performance in the field. BORAS downgraded him to a 2/18.7 deal. I have a hard time seeing him accept anything below an annual 10 MM salary, but the market may well dry up.<br />
<br />
What is going for him that BORAS does not consider is that he is a good clubhouse presence and he is considered able to play all outfield positions even though his effort or comfort looked very subpar in right field as his season ended. Jones could find himself a second wind. He has the bat speed and the other qualities that made him an all star quality player. Perhaps moving to a corner position will help him. Maybe focusing on a more contact oriented approach to improve his barrelling. I do not know. The only negative is that he has sure slowed down a bit over the years. His speed never played well on the basepaths, but he was a plus runner. He now is a 45/50 runner, but maybe that was impacted by overuse and injury.<br />
<br />
So...I also looked at Mike Trout and Mookie Betts. The reason why was because I wondered about Manny Machado's 10/250 projection. I had thought that perhaps the model, lacking data in the young superstar area, might underproject the Machado deal. The Trout and Betts projections indicate otherwise. The 400+ MM deals for Trout and Betts appear to validate the model and suggest that we should expect a monster deal for Machado, but far less than was expected a few years ago.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Jon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-29291141617404753782018-10-18T09:21:00.001-04:002018-10-30T11:20:34.393-04:00BORAS Blowout 2018/19: Left Field<a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-intro-and-catchers.html" target="_blank">Catcher</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-first-base.html" target="_blank">1B</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-second-base.html" target="_blank">2B</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-shortstops.html" target="_blank">SS</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-third-base.html" target="_blank">3B</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-left-field.html" target="_blank">LF</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-centerfield.html" target="_blank">CF</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-right-field.html" target="_blank">RF</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-designated-hitters.html" target="_blank">DH</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-pitcher-palooza.html" target="_blank">SP</a><br />
<br />
And after a little respite, here we go with the next batch. The BORAS model projections for left field:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 272px;">
<colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 4681; mso-width-source: userset; width: 96pt;" width="128"></col>
<col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 2925; mso-width-source: userset; width: 60pt;" width="80"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center; width: 96pt;" width="128"></td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64">Years</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 60pt;" width="80">Total (MM)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Gregor Blanco</td>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Invite</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Michael Brantley</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">4</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">55.2</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Melky Cabrera</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">7.7</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Rajai Davis</td>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Invite</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Daniel Descalso</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">18.8</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Brett Gardner</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">24.4</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Craig Gentry</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">7.6</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Carlos Gonzalez</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">14.5</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Marwin Gonzalez</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">11</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Brandon Guyer</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">7.3</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Jon Jay</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">8</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Cameron Maybin</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">9</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Gerardo Parra</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">5</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</blockquote>
This group includes a number of players who have been addressed before. I think the main miss here, as it has all along, is Marwin Gonzalez. He is so flexible and useful that I imagine he finds himself a larger deal. He is a poor man's Ben Zobrist or a rich man's Steve Pearce.<br />
<br />
As always, once the model sinks below the 10 MM mark, things can get weird. No, Gentry will not find himself a 1/7.6 MM deal.<br />
<br />Jon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-4498062375464347292018-10-12T11:08:00.002-04:002018-10-30T11:20:44.285-04:00BORAS Blowout 2018/19: Third Base<a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-intro-and-catchers.html" target="_blank">Catcher</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-first-base.html" target="_blank">1B</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-second-base.html" target="_blank">2B</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-shortstops.html" target="_blank">SS</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-third-base.html" target="_blank">3B</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-left-field.html" target="_blank">LF</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-centerfield.html" target="_blank">CF</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-right-field.html" target="_blank">RF</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-designated-hitters.html" target="_blank">DH</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-pitcher-palooza.html" target="_blank">SP</a><br />
<br />
Alright, after being leveled by some respiratory disease for a week, we are back on with the third base installment of the BORAS model. Some long time readers of the site still think that I call up Scott Boras and get his take, but no. I have already mentioned it a few times in this series and have gone through some messy bits in years past, but the BORAS model stands for Ballplayer Observation-based Renumeration Assumption System. The name is a very stretched out attempted to make it BORAS. So there you go. Again, I look at the historical relationship between several different performance variables for years prior to signing a contract and the contract itself. The current model is now a collection of really six models that are split by position and age. I hope this clears things up. Go back to the older introduction articles to get more of a history.<br />
<br />
The third base batch below contains projections for those who retired as well as a few who have been covered in previous positions.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 272px;">
<colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 4681; mso-width-source: userset; width: 96pt;" width="128"></col>
<col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 2925; mso-width-source: userset; width: 60pt;" width="80"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center; width: 96pt;" width="128"></td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64">Years</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 60pt;" width="80">Total (MM)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Adrian Beltre</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">9.7</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Asdrubal Cabrera</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">3</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">30.9</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Josh Donaldson</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">3</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">54</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Logan Forsythe</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">7.6</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">David Freese</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">20.6</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Marwin Gonzalez</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">13.4</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Chase Headley</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">7.4</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Jung-ho Kang</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">17.4</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Jed Lowrie</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">4</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">56.8</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Manny Machado</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">10</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">250</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Mike Moustakas</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">28.6</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Eduardo Nunez</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">6.6</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Jose Reyes</td>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Invite</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Andrew Romine</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">5.3</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Pabl0 Sandoval</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">6.5</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Luis Valbuena</td>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Invite</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</blockquote>
David Freese looks a little bizarre, but he is one of those guys who when skillfully deployed really helps to boost an offense. For instance, he only netted himself about 300 PA for the Pirates and Dodgers this season, yet he was able to have a 2.1 bWAR. That kind of quality usually comes with some investment in years and total money from a club. However, Freese is considered a platoon bat against left handers, which usually limits the market. Plus, he may now be more of a first baseman than a third baseman, which also limits the market. A 1/6 or 1.7 deal would be my expectation instead of a 2/20.6.<br />
<br />
Some might think Josh Donaldson's 3/54 deal is a bit light. From 2013-2016, Donaldson was a golden god with an average bWAR of 6.6. However, 2017 and 2018 were mired with injuries. That said, he has had a very late season boost since becoming an Indian and could see a team take a chance. If you completely ignore last season and have him repeat a modest 4 WAR season, then BORAS would change the expectation to 5/115. Third base, however, is a fairly bountiful position right now in the Majors, but I could see a club tossing out a 4/100 deal to him.<br />
<br />
I think the Headley, Kang, Sandoval, and Romine deals are overly kind. They exist in this little bubble of the model where they it has a hard time discerning whether a player is really worth a contract and it feels fine putting down a 6 or 7 or 8 MM cost to it. I think all of these guys are more or less invite quality players.<br />
<br />
Anyway, this is the third base group. Come Monday I will be posting left fielders.Jon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-35834320381687808942018-10-05T10:02:00.002-04:002018-10-30T11:20:58.552-04:00BORAS Blowout 2018/19: Shortstops<a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-intro-and-catchers.html" target="_blank">Catcher</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-first-base.html" target="_blank">1B</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-second-base.html" target="_blank">2B</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-shortstops.html" target="_blank">SS</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-third-base.html" target="_blank">3B</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-left-field.html" target="_blank">LF</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-centerfield.html" target="_blank">CF</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-right-field.html" target="_blank">RF</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-designated-hitters.html" target="_blank">DH</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-pitcher-palooza.html" target="_blank">SP</a><br />
<br />
As I have marched through the model projections, today was one that quite a few folks had circled with some anticipation. I mentioned the projection on twitter, but here it is in its full glory. Shortstops (aka Manny Machado and some other guys).<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; text-align: center; width: 272px;">
<colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 4681; mso-width-source: userset; width: 96pt;" width="128"></col>
<col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 2925; mso-width-source: userset; width: 60pt;" width="80"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center; width: 96pt;" width="128"></td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64">Years</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 60pt;" width="80">Total (MM)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Elvis Andrus p58</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">10.5</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Asdrubal Cabrera</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">3</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">30.9</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Alcides Escobar</td>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Invite</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Eduardo Escobar</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">15.4</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Freddy Galvis</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">14</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Marwin Gonzalez</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">11</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">A. Hechavarria</td>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Invite</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Jose Iglesias</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">22.6</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Manny Machado</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">10</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">250</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Jordy Mercer</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">13</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Eduardo Nunez p5</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">6.6</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Jose Reyes</td>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Invite</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Eric Sogard</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">5.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</blockquote>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Machado's value of 10/250 is an astoundingly large contract. With whispers of a 400 MM deal being considered by the Depot just a year and a half ago, the total value might feel lean. It is good to remember though that 2017 was a rough offensive year for Manny and this year was a fairly unspectacular defensive one with a shift to Shortstop. With that in mind, it makes sense that the model is not saying that Machado should be handed a deal that results in the air being sucked out of the industry.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
But is the model unable to value machado properly because he is an exceptional talent? Well, lets consider that by looking at two exceptional players: Mike Trout and Mookie Betts. I think we can all agree that these guys are stunningly good baseball players. What does BORAS think about them?</div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="text-align: left;">
Mike Trout 12/407<br />
Mookie Betts 12/417</blockquote>
That seems to sink that argument for Machado. Again, one of the murmurs that has followed Machado for years has been when will he go from being one of the 20 best players in baseball to one of the all time greats. He simply has not gotten there, but he seems to have that potential. Will a club pay him like an all time great or will they pay him like a current great?<br />
<br />
Once you get past Manny Machado, the shortstop position opens up to Asdrubal Cabrera, Eduardo Escobar, and Jose Iglesias. Cabrera has put in a few good seasons and looks to benefit from those. Escobar has rebounded nicely from his 2016 season and will probably squeaked out a three or four year deal around 10 MM per instead of the BORAS estimate of 1/15.4 (but who knows?). Iglesias is fully converting his glove into money, which may or may not pan out.<br />
<br />
All in all, looks like a decent set of projections.Jon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.com12tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-78284104729456080812018-10-04T09:30:00.003-04:002018-10-30T11:21:07.944-04:00BORAS Blowout 2018/19: Second Base<a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-intro-and-catchers.html" target="_blank">Catcher</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-first-base.html" target="_blank">1B</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-second-base.html" target="_blank">2B</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-shortstops.html" target="_blank">SS</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-third-base.html" target="_blank">3B</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-left-field.html" target="_blank">LF</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-centerfield.html" target="_blank">CF</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-right-field.html" target="_blank">RF</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-designated-hitters.html" target="_blank">DH</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-pitcher-palooza.html" target="_blank">SP</a><br />
<br />
So far, we have looked at catchers and first basemen. Today is second base. Again, the BORAS model looks at historical performance and regresses it against contract values. It is a multivariable, multistep approach. We have been running the models for several years and they are one of the best projection tools for contract terms for regular players. Things tend to drop off the table for role players or extreme platoon players.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; text-align: center; width: 272px;">
<colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 4681; mso-width-source: userset; width: 96pt;" width="128"></col>
<col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 2925; mso-width-source: userset; width: 60pt;" width="80"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center; width: 96pt;" width="128"></td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64">Years</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 60pt;" width="80">Total (MM)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Asdrubal Cabrera</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">3</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">30.9</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Daniel Descalso</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">18.8</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Brian Dozier</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">28.4</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Logan Forsythe</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">7.6</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Marwin Gonzalez</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">11</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Josh Harrison</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">18</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Ian Kinsler</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">8.9</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">DJ LeMahieu</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">4</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">47.2</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Jed Lowrie</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">4</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">56.4</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Daniel Murphy</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">34.4</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Eduardo Nunez</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">6.6</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Jose Reyes</td>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Invite</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Sean Rodriguez</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">6.5</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Eric Sogard</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">5.9</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Neil Walker</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">18.2</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</blockquote>
<div style="text-align: left;">
For fun, I also ran former Orioles Jonathan Schoop through the model. He is currently under contract with the Brewers and has one more arbitration year left if the Brewers wish to hold onto him. BORAS thinks holding onto Schoop a bit of a wash and probably worth it. If Schoop was a free agent, BORAS pegs him as a 5/52.5 player. This past year undercut his projection by about 30 MM.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Overall, the numbers suggested here are not all that surprising. Jed Lowrie would be signing through his age 38 year, but he has shown decent versatility and a good bat. He is not exactly in the same class as when Ben Zobrist signed with the Cubs, but he is not far off. My guess is that he gets three years and an option.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Daniel Murphy sees his years dwindle due to his acceptable, but not great year this past season. The model still thinks he can garner something around 17 MM, which would surprise me. However, he really is not all that far away from his offensive years. Neil Walker is often thrown in the same bucket as Murphy, but Walker has taken more of a progressive nose dive. The model can forgive a one year drop, but it finds trends harder to ignore.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Shortstops are next.</div>
<br />Jon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-32297674799308589132018-10-03T12:45:00.000-04:002018-10-30T11:21:17.967-04:00BORAS Blowout 2018/19: First Base<a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-intro-and-catchers.html" target="_blank">Catcher</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-first-base.html" target="_blank">1B</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-second-base.html" target="_blank">2B</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-shortstops.html" target="_blank">SS</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-third-base.html" target="_blank">3B</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-left-field.html" target="_blank">LF</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-centerfield.html" target="_blank">CF</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-right-field.html" target="_blank">RF</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-designated-hitters.html" target="_blank">DH</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-pitcher-palooza.html" target="_blank">SP</a><br />
<br />
Yesterday, I wrote about catchers and a bit about the new BORAS model system this year. Today, we move on to first basemen. While catchers had a potentially big name in Yasmani Grandal, the big name here (Justin Smoak) has a club option for eight million, which seems like an easy decision for the Blue Jays to pick up as Smoak has accounted for quite a bit of offense these past few years in Toronto.<br />
<br />
Here is the BORAS projection for first base.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 282px;">
<colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 4677; mso-width-source: userset; width: 101pt;" width="134"></col>
<col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 2932; mso-width-source: userset; width: 63pt;" width="84"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt; text-align: center; width: 101pt;" width="134"></td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64">Years</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 63pt;" width="84">Total (MM)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt; text-align: center;">Matt Adams</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">11.1</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt; text-align: center;">Lucas Duda</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">18.2</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt; text-align: center;">Marwin Gonzalez</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">11</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt; text-align: center;">Joe Mauer</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">10</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt; text-align: center;">Logan Morrison m8</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">22.6</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt; text-align: center;">Steve Pearce</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">21.8</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt; text-align: center;">Hanley Ramirez</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">7.2</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt; text-align: center;">Mark Reynolds</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">8.5</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt; text-align: center;">Justin Smoak c8</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">3</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">44.1</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt; text-align: center;">Danny Valencia</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">7</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt; text-align: center;">Chris Davis</td>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Invite</td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt; text-align: center;">Mark Trumbo</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">8.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</blockquote>
As this is an Orioles site, I added two players who are not free agents, Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo. Neither live up to their current deals, but Davis is the hard one to take for Orioles fans. BORAS is so unimpressed with Davis that the invite status is an incredibly kind designation. For Trumbo, there is an upside there. He notoriously underperforms as a designated hitter, but if he had put up his on field batting numbers while at first base then he would be looking at something more in the neighborhood of 3/40 or even more.<br />
<br />
All in all, the numbers above look about right with a few issues. BORAS does not know that Valencia is a weakside platoon bat, that will drop his value in the open market (not to mention the mumbling of clubhouse concerns). Reynolds and Ramirez also feel a bit high as they are uneven veterans with younger talent undermining their value.<br />
<br />
BORAS loves it some Steve Pearce. It always has and it really has always been correct about his value, if not his contract terms. Teams seem to be concerned about his injuries, streaky bat, and positional concerns, but he always seems to do well as a strong role player. His arm may not be what it was, but he should be a highly sought after bench/role bat.<br />
<br />
BORAS seems a little confused by Marwin Gonzalez and his 1/11 deal seems a little rough. I see Gonzalez as a healthier Steve Pearce. These are the kind of guys teams really need. Their bat can be surprisingly good and they positional flexibility enables a team to use the best player available in the minors when an injury arises instead of the best available player at a given position. My best is that teams are willing to hand over a greater commitment to Gonzalez.<br />
<br />
All in all, I think the projections are roughly about where they should be given that this system does well with 2+ year commitments and AAVs over 8 MM.Jon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-31819885619542889462018-10-02T11:32:00.000-04:002018-10-30T11:21:31.129-04:00BORAS Blowout 2018/19: Intro and CatchersFor the past several Octobers (give or take an extended playoff appearance), the writers here at Camden Depot would put together organizational blueprints for the off season to suggest what the Orioles should do to improve the squad. That will not happen this year. However, a major component of that work was our contract projection model: BORAS.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-intro-and-catchers.html" target="_blank">Catcher</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-first-base.html" target="_blank">1B</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-second-base.html" target="_blank">2B</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-shortstops.html" target="_blank">SS</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-third-base.html" target="_blank">3B</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-left-field.html" target="_blank">LF</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-centerfield.html" target="_blank">CF</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-right-field.html" target="_blank">RF</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-designated-hitters.html" target="_blank">DH</a> | <a href="https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/10/boras-blowout-201819-pitcher-palooza.html" target="_blank">SP</a><br />
<br />
In case you forgot or never knew, BORAS takes into consideration several characteristics of a player (e.g., age, offensive performance, defensive performance, historical contract comparisons) and uses that information to project what the new contract will look like. Each year, we add on another season of data and try to tinker with the model to improve upon it. This year, the primary model improvement comes from using a batch age model to weight things differently.<br />
<br />
Our first series of posts will consider BORAS(po), the position player contract model. What we found was that younger players and older players were really being valued differently beyond their age. For instance, our analysis suggests that older players are sought after for their offense with considerably less value placed on their defense. If we look at encapsulated metrics, defense was valued about half as much on a per run basis as offense was in the 31 and older player set. For 30 year olds and younger, the value gap shrank from 52% to 17%. Differences like these can really impact the quality of a model. By taking these into consideration, we improved the performance of our model internally by about 15%.<br />
<br />
In the past, I would just drop the whole player list and then run away. This year, we will try to be more comprehensive and cover a large swath of the player market as well as putting in some arbitration eligible Orioles because...eh, why not? Again the caveats remain as they have in the past. This model does not know about injuries or suspensions. This model is based on a data set that largely ignores players who get bench level playing time. Those can be two major blindspots at times. Finally, our first post here deals with catchers and this model has always struggled with catchers. In my opinion, this will probably be the worst performing projection group.<br />
<br />
<b>BORAS(po) 2018/19 Catcher contract projections</b><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 272px;">
<colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 4681; mso-width-source: userset; width: 96pt;" width="128"></col>
<col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 2925; mso-width-source: userset; width: 60pt;" width="80"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt; mso-height-source: userset;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center; width: 96pt;" width="128"></td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64"><b>Years</b></td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 60pt;" width="80"><b>Total (MM)</b></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Drew Butera</td>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Invite</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Robinson Chirinos</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">9.9</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">AJ Ellis</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">6</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Yasmani Grandal</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">3</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">45.3</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Nick Hundley</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">5.6</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Jonathan Lucroy</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">4.4</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Martin Maldonado</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">4.6</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Jeff Mathis</td>
<td style="text-align: center;"></td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Invite</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Brian McCann</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">7.7</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Devin Mesoraco</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">14.9</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Wilson Ramos</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">3</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">26.3</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Rene Rivera</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">7</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Kurt Suzuki</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">20</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Matt Wieters</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">4.1</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">Caleb Joseph</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">3.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</blockquote>
The adjustments made this year have resulted in a much more competent model at first look, but there are a couple peculiar projections. I have a hard time seeing Suzuki making 2/20 even though he has experienced a bit of a late career bloom. Second, I think the model might be a bit too hard on Wilson Ramos who has had to deal with some misfortune with respect to his health. I also think Ramos gets dinged a bit due to his poor base running, which I think in general does not impact catchers all that much when it comes to signing a contract.<br />
<br />
As this is an Orioles blog, I added arbitration eligible Caleb Joseph. He should be looking at 1.5 to 2 MM in arbitration while BORAS projects Joseph to be worth slightly more in the open market. With the Orioles organization in possession of a few decent catchers that would come in under the 1.5 MM mark, it may well make sense to non-tender Joseph even though his arbitration value might be a slight bargain.<br />
<br />
Tomorrow, I will post first basemen.Jon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-23939179484882341872018-09-28T11:28:00.002-04:002018-09-28T13:58:46.966-04:00Cavalry Is Here, But They Are a Little IrregularThe Orioles have had a few calls for the cavalry. The first utterance was under the Andy MacPhail regime and it spoke of talents like Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, Zach Britton, Radhames Liz, Jake Arrieta, Brandon Erbe, Troy Patton and those are just the arms that appeared on Baseball America's top 100 lists. The idea behind it all was about buying bats and not spending a great amount of money on pitching, to simply grow the arms. It did not work. Of those starters, the Orioles only saw starting pitching success with Tillman. The others failed to provide the club with what the club was anticipating. The cavalry was called, it showed up, and they mainly rode donkeys.<br />
<br />
A softer bugle was called a few years later as Kevin Gausman was cutting his teeth and experiencing flashes of extreme success. High upside arms appeared in the form of Dylan Bundy, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Hunter Harvey. Gausman could never sustain his highs, but was solid rotation arm before being dealt to the Braves this past deadline. Bundy, after experiencing injury woes, looks like a top shelf pitcher when his fastball sits in the mid 90s and then a shell of himself if it dips below that. It has dipped often below that. Harvey no longer looks like a starting pitcher and some question whether he can stay healthy enough to experience long term success in any role in the majors. And, of course, Eduardo Rodriguez was traded off to help the Orioles better manage their bullpen in the 2014 playoffs, a short term benefit with long term consequences. The deadening of the starting rotation these past three years has been a product of this cavalry not being able to beef up the rotation (though not as unspectacularly as the previous incarnation of the cavalry).<br />
<br />
However, past drafts and a few deadline trades rejuvenated the minors with arms. So much so, that the club probably has some concerns about how exactly to get those arms the right number of innings against the right kind of competition. The only certainty the Orioles face is their top three slot in their rotation. Dylan Bundy, who again fatigued along the way with terrible effect, will be top arm in the rotation. Andrew Cashner, who did his secret Wade Miley impersonation in eating innings while getting roughed up, is the second sure feature of the rotation. Alex Cobb, who habitually is unable to complete 30 starts a year, rounds out the top three.<br />
<br />
Behind those guys is a bit of a free-for-all. The Orioles might seek stability or upside and go after a free agent starter this off-season. However, the more arms you sign to be in the rotation, the more you depend on injuries to give the younger arms a chance to showcase their talents on the MLB stage. At the moment, the competition for the last two slots appears to be one between Yefry Ramirez and David Hess against Josh Rogers, John Means, and perhaps Keegan Akin. One also figures that Luis Ortiz, Dillon Tate, Jimmy Yacabonis, and Hunter Harvey might also get a shot.<br />
<br />
Whoever shakes free from that group would fill out Norfolk. If you assume that Hess and Ramirez start in Baltimore, then you probably have Ortiz, Akin, Rogers, Means, and Dean Kremer in Norfolk. Again, you have some other arms up in the air like Yacabonis, Harvey, Gabriel Ynoa, and Jordan Kipper. Bowie likely fills out with Tate, Michael Baumann, Bruce Zimmerman, Brian Gonzalez, and Cristian Alvarado. Lucas Humpal and Ofelky Peralta should also get a mention here.<br />
<br />
Down to Frederick, Brenan Hanifee, Luis Perez, Cody Sedlock, Jhon Peluffo, and D.L. Hall look slated to compete there. Matthias Dietz may be finding himself in the pen. Delmarva may bring out Grayson Rodriguez, Blaine Knight, Hector Guance, Jake Zebron, and maybe Jimmy Murphy. Really, you can get down to Delmarva and really not see any obvious holes opening up to bring in veteran pitching. This is a problem that the club has not had to deal with in a while.<br />
<br />
It should also be noted that while there is a cavalry, a deep cavalry. It does not speak to the quality of those arms. As you go through the system, you find a lot of fringey talent. You can imagine arms like Ortiz, Tate, Harvey, and Akin to make meaningful contributions in the Majors. You might even be able to imagine Kremer, Baumann, Zimmerman, and Hanifee to swoop in as well. But, really, Grayson Rodriguez is the lone arm that is truly seen as special. He has a couple years to go before he can see Baltimore if he advances quickly.<br />
<br />
So, all in all, the depth is there for Baltimore. It is depth that they have not seen since the late 2000s. It is a collection of pitchers whose profile is not as well considered compared to those cavalry classes a decade ago though. This cavalry is a bit irregular. But, the hope is there that perhaps a few of them will emerge and beat the odds. If they do, then the Orioles rebuild will be quicker than anticipated.Jon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-11925067925059743712018-09-26T11:03:00.001-04:002018-09-26T11:03:15.085-04:00September has been an Organizational Car WreckA day ago, Jon Meoli wrote <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-orioles-redsox-20180924-story.html" target="_blank">this</a>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "Droid Serif", serif; font-size: 18px;">They have 19 pitchers on the active roster; seven of them — Alex Cobb (finger), Andrew Cashner (knee), Miguel Castro (knee), Josh Rogers (shut down), Evan Phillips (shut down), Ortiz and RamÃrez — are dealing with injuries or otherwise unavailable. That gives them the numbers of a pre-roster expansion pitching staff with a minor league call-up quality to it. September baseball is a manager’s nightmare, but this is a level unto itself.</span></blockquote>
Injuries happen. For some clubs injuries and fatigue can coincide in a way where the bullpen and starting rotation is obliterated. The pitching staff thins out and a manager has to ask the remaining healthy arms to shoulder the burden. This happens before September. This happens before the roster expansion. What the Orioles are experiencing now is something they should not be experiencing.<br />
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Not only are the Orioles are experiencing an arms crunch with an expanded roster, but there is no solution. The club last offseason curiously decided against filling up their AAA roster with fringe starting arms. I wrote about the problem with that last Spring. A club needs about three viable starting pitchers in AAA. A club like the Orioles, who had a measure of breakdown and trading out arms, needs more.<br />
<br />
Jhan Marinez, Tim Melville, David Hess, Jimmy Yacabonis, and Jayson Aquino were the Tides starting rotation in April. Marinez and Melville are relievers. Yacabonis and Aquino effectively were relievers from their minor league careers. Hess is a fringe starter. He, really, was the only one who set out with the Tides who fit the role that the club was apparently going to need. The perennially short-armed Orioles decided from the get go to be short-armed. It led to issues earlier in the season and it is how the club finds itself now.<br />
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It is a mess. It is an organizational failure that was foreseeable.Jon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-64556027271204988162018-09-25T07:30:00.000-04:002018-09-25T07:30:04.740-04:00The Orioles are limping to the finish lineAll good things must come to an end. In the case of my podcast, mediocre things have to end too. Since you are reading this post on Camden Depot, you are well aware that the site will be shutting down at the conclusion of MLB's regular season, which is rapidly approaching. That means that these weekly-ish posts of the podcast episodes must also end. However, another well-known Orioles website has been kind enough to step in and offer us a new place to publish our show, and we are incredibly grateful.<br />
<br />
Bookmark it now! Going forward, you can expect our new episodes to be featured on...(drum roll)(dramatic pause) Eutaw Street Report! You can follow along at <a href="http://eutawstreetreport.com/">EutawStreetReport.com</a> or on <a href="https://twitter.com/EutawStReport" target="_blank">Twitter</a> and <a href="https://www.facebook.com/Orioles247" target="_blank">Facebook</a>. If you subscribe to the podcast through Google Play, Apple Podcasts or some other app, nothing will be changing! Keep doing what you do to support the show. But if you are more into browsing the web, then head over to ESR's site, read their other O's content and give us some love. We are very excited about the new partnership!<br />
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Of course, I cannot end this post without thanking the Camden Depot community and Jon Shepherd for giving me a weekly platform to post about this podcast. It has helped us grow in significant ways by exposing us to a new audience. It's much easier to create something when you know other people are appreciating it as well. We could not have accomplished 26 episodes without the driving force that came as part of being featured of the Depot once a week throughout what was an otherwise miserable season to be an Orioles fan. I just cannot say it enough; thank you!<br />
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<i style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif;">You can subscribe or listen to the podcast on </span><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-warehouse/id1370948739?mt=2" style="color: #743600; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">iTunes/Apple Podcasts</a><span style="font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif;">, </span><a href="https://play.google.com/music/m/I4wtjxlq5sev3xpctc3bu4upy74?t=The_Warehouse_-_a_Baltimore_Orioles_podcast" style="color: #743600; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Google Play</a><span style="font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif;">, </span><a href="https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/the-warehouse" style="color: #743600; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Stitcher</a><span style="font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif;">, </span><a href="https://thewarehousepod.podbean.com/" style="color: #743600; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Podbean</a><span style="font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif;">, </span><a href="https://tunein.com/podcasts/Sports--Recreation-Podcasts/The-Warehouse-p1119503/?topicId=121626133" style="color: #743600; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">TuneIn</a><span style="font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif;"> and a few other places as well. If you are into social media, we can be found on </span><a href="https://twitter.com/thewarehousepod" style="color: #743600; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Twitter</a><span style="font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif;">, </span><a href="https://www.facebook.com/TheWarehousePod/" style="color: #743600; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Facebook</a><span style="font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif;">, </span><a href="https://www.instagram.com/thewarehousepod/" style="color: #743600; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Instagram</a><span style="font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif;"> and </span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCQCLpHQDrP2BeS9MoAS6zFw" style="color: #743600; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">YouTube</a><span style="font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif;">. Wherever you go, give us a five-star review or a "Like". It helps us out a ton! Thanks for the support!</span></i><br />
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<iframe data-name="pb-iframe-player" frameborder="0" height="315" scrolling="no" src="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/9j3rg-9ab1d2?from=site&vjs=1&skin=1&fonts=Helvetica&auto=0&download=0" width="100%"></iframe>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-41986933490259371782018-09-21T06:00:00.000-04:002018-09-21T06:00:03.598-04:00Former MLB DOI Agent Eddie Dominguez' Baseball CopPrimary sources require disciplined listening. Individuals involved in an activity consciously and unconsciously tend to convey fact tinged with a little haze. The haze can structure a narrative that is highly directed on the objectives and intent of the source. If you are a proponent of enforcement then the truth you convey will be from that perspective and may miss details or perhaps orients details from an enforcement perspective. The haze also tends to be an attempt to make the source appear more favorably to what he thinks you value. Sometimes this takes the form of someone repeatedly trying to validate themselves in your eyes with name dropping, mentioning of extensive accomplishments, and favorable anecdotal asides.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-pqrTWDpMxFhgV0CAA3X3GgUUloiKWxrI4i27682UTX4-qL4sdai4qslekwIechEoFuIZ6jBf-l5pYKijnjWb6Gz3QyzPLayH7lTKK1Nt1wTzoSyKp_FE5O1NyIL-gT6Yz-vhRcAFY5MY/s1600/Baseball+Cop.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="497" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-pqrTWDpMxFhgV0CAA3X3GgUUloiKWxrI4i27682UTX4-qL4sdai4qslekwIechEoFuIZ6jBf-l5pYKijnjWb6Gz3QyzPLayH7lTKK1Nt1wTzoSyKp_FE5O1NyIL-gT6Yz-vhRcAFY5MY/s400/Baseball+Cop.jpg" width="263" /></a></div>
<i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Baseball-Cop/dp/0316483974" target="_blank">Baseball Cop</a></i> is a new book written by the former Major League Baseball Department of Investigations agent Eddie Dominguez, a law enforcement veteran with a long and diverse multi-decade long career that spans from the Boston streets in local investigations to FBI work and to international investigations. This work is part a biography and part a thesis in how MLB's DoI (largely established as an outcome of the Mitchell PED report) has evolved from a somewhat independent investigative unit to an extension of MLB's executive push at controlling public relations. While the book is certainly tinged by Dominguez' need to validate his own perspective and his whole-hearted support of enforcement approaches, one cannot deny that his charge against MLB and their DoI program appears valid and needs further assessment. His book includes many specific details that have been published before in articles and other books, which puts credibility to what he states.<br />
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As troubling as Dominguez's allegations are, it is unsettling how little traction this book has gotten in the media, whether mainstream or on the fringes in sports blogging. The book further carries on a fairly well established theme that Major League Baseball is less interested in the goals of enforcement of rules or establishing a truly useful and comprehensive health and safety drug program in comparison to their heavy handed approaches that appear to be more about making a public statement and suggesting a greater level of control than they actually have. Some think the lack of attention is due to a greater conspiracy between sports media and MLB offices, but I question that. However, I have no alternative suggestion. Dominguez is not Jose Canseco. From what I can see, his words should be considered.<br />
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Briefly, the book is largely about how the Department of Investigation for Major League Baseball was created out of MLB's public crisis in the 2000s from the Performance Enhancing Drugs hearings. Mitchell's report found a need for developing an independent investigation unit that would be free from MLB or MLBPA oversight. MLB appears to have gotten frustrated with DoI following up on their own leads and involving law enforcement, so MLB began to isolate DoI and secretly run parallel efforts. In the end with much of the public outrage subsided, MLB transformed DoI from multiple employees with field experience to more of a court-based, stream-lined group who would contract out investigations. That transformation led to refusal to further investigate what MLB appeared to gauge as sensitive subjects.<br />
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While several important aspects arise, the impact is somewhat mitigated by the author. Dominguez' writing style is akin to that guy in the bar who speaks louder than is required because he wants people other than his buddy to hear him. He wants you to know that he knows people, that he is connected. He wants you to know that he has won awards. He wants to ensure that you respect him and presents you with the rationale and logic required to come to that conclusion. To me, it is reminiscent to how a friend of mine who is a Baltimore police detective communicates. It feels like how someone would communicate to an informant or suspect in order to verbally overpower any hesitancy in accepting the person talking. While this can be frustrating and ruin the reading experience a bit, if you can work through that as a reader then a great deal of interesting information is there to consume.<br />
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The author sometimes appears to not realize instances where he is being used by others. For instance, there is a story conveyed where Theo Epstein calls Dominguez up to get him to investigate the White Sox behavior leading up to Dayan Viciedo's signing. It seems, first off, wholly inappropriate that Epstein is pleading with Dominguez to investigate the White Sox and giving a reason being that the Cubs want to sign him instead. It also is peculiar for Epstein to suggest something untoward is happening because it would be remarkable if Epstein was not involved in similar things. The Cubs are allegedly one of many (almost every) clubs that pre-agrees to deals with international talent. That notion is repeatedly made every single year by MLB writers when a new international period ramps up at the end of June and beginning of July. From the outside and reading Dominguez' account, it looks like Epstein is simply brushing back the White Sox and trying to frustrate them.<br />
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It is also important to recognize what law enforcement does. Law enforcement is not necessarily interested in the truth, but in facts that support a truth. That is an important distinction. For instance, Dominguez writes about his contacts and the degree to which they think PEDs are still used in baseball. One piece of evidence suggested is that increase in home runs that have spiked up over the past couple seasons. The section is written to put this forward as a primary driver of the increase in power. What this does is establish the PED issue and enforcement need contained in the book. The fact that several studies have shown a difference in the ball that results in it traveling further is not noted as it does not carry forward the desired law enforcement objective. It is important when reading this that Dominguez is offering his best truth and his truth (all our truths are) is impacted by his perspective, how he sees the world.<br />
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Again, warts and all, this work is important. The book declares that MLB values itself more than anything else. It falls in with a line of evidence in an all too common tale that spans across industries: organizational human resource operations are not there to protect victims or establish truth, but to further the needs of the organization. MLB likely does not see DoI as a group to enforce rules of law, but a group that enforces rules of law when it makes MLB look good. Dominguez appears to have misunderstood that reality and it cost him his job. It is a story that should resound with anyone who works for someone else. It is a reminder that you may one day find yourself as a victim who is under the heel of your more powerful employer.<br />
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-----<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Baseball-Cop/dp/0316483974" target="_blank">Baseball Cop: the darkside of America's national pastime</a><br />
by Eddie Dominguez<br />
Hachette Books<br />
pp. 304Jon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-70745466686744249452018-09-19T09:59:00.001-04:002018-09-19T09:59:06.820-04:00Moving Away from Buck: The Orioles Next ManagerOne point five times. That figure is burned into my head. I cannot remember where I acquired that figure, but it has to do with the ideal age of a leader given the average age of his employees, followers, whatever. Studies, ones I have actually found, tend to suggest age is a factor, but maybe not something that should be a primary focus.<br />
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Why does any of this matter? Well, after years like this, people tend to be fired and a common target for getting fired in the manager. To be precise, Buck Showalter only has a couple weeks left to be fired. That is a highly unlikely occurance. More likely is that Buck will not be offered another opportunity to manage the Orioles. With that vacancy, the Orioles are in need of a new skipper.<br />
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The Orioles tend to focus on big names: Buck Showalter, Mike Hargrove, Leo Mazzone, and Davey Johnson. Organizational favorites have also popped up like Dave Trembley, Sam Perlozzo, and Ray Miller. You also have Lee Mazzilli. Eh.<br />
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Recent trends have been pushing younger and younger managers. In 2012, the Cardinals and White Sox seemed to welcome a new era when they respectively hired Mike Matheny and Robin Ventura. Since then, twenty six first-time managers have been hired with over half of them without any managerial experience. Last year, four of six managerial openings were filled with individuals 44 years old or younger: Alex Cora (42), Mickey Callaway (42), Gabe Kapler (42), and Aaron Boone (44). Managers have become less the captain of the clubhouse and more a conduit to deliver front office interests to the field, to bring front office direction to the players.<br />
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The Orioles did not subscribe to that organizational structure these past several years. Buck Showalter was hired against Andy MacPhail's wishes and was a major reason why he walked away from the Orioles. The Orioles original offer to Tony LaCava to head the club was undermined by his lack of authority over Showalter and other employees in baseball operations. Dan Duquette was able to weather it all, but the team was often referred to as a two-headed monster by opposing clubs who would often become confused as to who exactly made decisions. The answer: both with ownership being a tie breaker, or whoever was more empowered by ownership at any one time.<br />
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If the Orioles want to modernize their franchise, then the first thing they need is a manager who is an extension of the front office instead of a foil. Change <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1048984314000605" target="_blank">appears</a> to be best accepted by young, charismatic, transformational leaders. However, with a multicoach setup, you can look at a couple of different leadership structures. One would be an older, more stable manager with younger, more analytically inclined assistant coaches. Another route would be a younger more analytically incline manager with more of a mix of older and similarly aged assistant coaches. The <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09585190802324130" target="_blank">problem</a> with <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8461108" target="_blank">younger leadership</a> though is with buy-in. If you go too young, then the players may not accept the authority of their manager. This can also be a problem with the assistant coaches and manager.<br />
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Given these ideas about management, approaches by other clubs modernizing their structure, and the talent that is currently out there, what options do the Orioles have? The following is not a listing of various candidates, but solutions for each spot in the roster.<br />
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<i>Manager - Joe Espada (Houston Astros, bench coach), Age 43</i><br />
When Alex Cora was swiped by the Boston Red Sox as their manager, Joe Espada slid over to the bench coach position for the Astros from being the Yankees third base coach. Espada is from Puerto Rico, is known as a communicator, and is well acquainted with the use of analytics from his time with the Yankees and the Astros. He would be an asset to any front office.<br />
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He would be an asset in that he would likely be controllable where Buck Showalter enjoyed a more traditional sense of control, free of daily contributions from the front office if he decided their help was not needed. Espada, used to structures with considerable input from up top, would be looking at his first big league gig, which would be helpful. Also, as a younger manager he may well be a better communicator with the younger players who will now have a larger role. Buck was never known as a great developer of talent, but as a maximizer of existing and accepted talent.<br />
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<i>Pitching Coach - Brian Bannister (Boston Red Sox, assistant pitching coach), Age 37</i><br />
The quickest way to getting back to respectability in the AL East will be to somehow be able to target and adjust the pitchers available within the Orioles' system. Bannister might be that guy. He is known to be one of the main drives behind the Red Sox pitching analytics push and is credited to being a player who was on the tip of the spear. He was Brandon McCarthy before Brandon McCarthy, if that helps.<br />
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Bannister is credited with finding the right mix and approach for Rich Hill, blossoming him at a very later stage in his career. It is uncertain what his new responsibilities might be after the change over from Farrell, but he might wish to get into a position of more control to implement his ideas. And while analytics are becoming more accepted in clubhouses (the Orioles are not one of those clubhouses), a young, former player with coach and communication experience makes Bannister a potentially ideal fit for Baltimore.<br />
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<i>Hitting Coach - Jeff Livesay (Pittsburgh Pirates, assistant hitting coach), Age 52</i><br />
To be honest, I do not know much about Livesay. What I do know is that he has spent 15 years with the Pirates. He has experienced the transition from a traditional operation to one that is very analytically focused. That experience is something that I think would be useful. He likely has experienced the rough spots and may be a useful coach who can understand obstacles in the transition. At 52, he certainly is young enough to last a while. He could also be paired with a younger voice like reupping Howie Clark.<br />
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If you want someone more on the tip of the spear, then you would probably want someone like Severna Park's own Mark Budzinski, a jack of all trades pre- and in- game coach for the Cleveland Indians. He might be more on the nose if you want a wholesale change to a more modern operation.<br />
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<i>First base Coach - Jerry Hairston, Jr. (SportsNet LA, First Base Coach), Age 41</i><br />
You may better remember Hairston as the player the Orioles decided to send on and dedicate themselves to Brian Roberts and to bring in Sammy Sosa. One of those worked out. Hairston went on to have a long career as a role player until a hip injury ended it. He then transitioned into the broadcast booth for SportsNet LA. He has no coaching experience, but he has a whole lot of playing experience and communication skills.<br />
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It is uncertain if Hairston would consider a role like this, especially after he was a finalist for the New York Yankees manager gig a year ago. Is a collaborative role acceptable when so close to a managerial position. It may not hurt to ask. If that does not work out there would be other names I would want to kick the tires on: Jose Hernandez, Brian Roberts, Tom Goodwin, Reggie Willits, or Mark Kotsay.<br />
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<i>Third base Coach - Bobby Dickerson (Baltimore Orioles, Third Base coach), Age 53</i><br />
I really like Bobby Dickerson. He is not a make or break coach, but he is great at infield instruction and is a solid third base coach. Fans often get upset when players get thrown out at home, but that is more or less an emotional reaction to a poor outcome. If a third base coach was 100% successful when sending a guy, then you are talking about a whole lot of runs left at third base because that next guy to the plate is going to get out a lot. Third base coaches tend to be very conservative because you do not look bad when holding a guy. Dickerson feels alright looking bad and that increases run scoring.<br />
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If you would want to clean the slate (which I do not think is needed, but Dickerson may wish to go if he is the only mainstay), then I think the Red Sox's Tom Goodwin or the Dodger's George Lombard could be decent options. I could also see the next guy I mention moving into this position, Will Venable. In that case, I would probably look to someone like the Tides' Ron Johnson to be a familiar face as Bench Coach.<br />
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<i>Bench Coach - Will Venable (Chicago Cubs, First Base Coach), Age 35</i><br />
Venable was a bit of a leap when the Cubs transitioned him from a front office assistant last Fall to a first base and outfield coach this year. He was brought on to freshen up the on field instruction with a younger voice. By all accounts, it was a success. The Cubs are a highly analytical group and Venable has been a useful way to communicate data to the players. Espada could utilize that kind of coach on the bench and help provide Espada with information need for managing situations.<br />
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Conclusion<br />
This is one path for the future. It may not be a path for success, but it is a path with intent. With the current multi-headed, multi-objective, multi-style environment the Orioles currently employ, maybe it is a better path forward. It calls back to the Oriole Way that Paul Richards employed and that Earl Waever followed. Maybe the Orioles, like in the 1950s, were in a dump with a poor farm system and not much at the major league level to shake a stick at. However, being at the bottom means having opportunities to take risks and to try to be at the front of the next innovation. Introducing management and coaches who are open to exploration and new ways of doing things may be able to get the Orioles out in front of the pack.<br />
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Maybe they take this track. Maybe they find some success in a different one.Jon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-14245253891773162022018-09-14T14:59:00.003-04:002018-09-14T14:59:58.730-04:00Adam Jones' Potential Departure is the Greatest Loss Since Cal Ripken Jr.There are many way to measure the importance, locally, of a player and the seismic impact of that player departing. Perhaps one way to look at it would be to go through and see to what extent an individual contributed to a club career-wise. Below is a year to year look at who was the reigning bWAR leader for time spent with the Orioles.<br />
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The list is a pleasant, sometimes hurtful, trip down memory lane.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; text-align: center; width: 435px;">
<colgroup><col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 4169; mso-width-source: userset; width: 86pt;" width="114"></col>
<col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 4717; mso-width-source: userset; width: 97pt;" width="129"></col>
<col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 48pt;" width="64"></td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 86pt;" width="114">Batter</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64">bWAR</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 97pt;" width="129">Pitcher</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64">bWAR</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1954</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Cal Abrams</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">4</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Bob Turley</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">3.5</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1955</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Cal Abrams</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">5.8</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Jim Wilson</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">3.5</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1956</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Gus Triandos</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">4.1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Bill Wight</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">4.3</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1957</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Gus Triandos</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">7</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Connie Johnson</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">5.8</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1958</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Gus Triandos</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">10</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Billy O'Dell</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">7.1</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1959</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Bob Nieman</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">11.6</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Billy O'Dell</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">11.1</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1960</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Gus Triandos</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">12.9</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Hoyt Wilhelm</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">10.1</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1961</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Gus Triandos</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">14</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Hoyt Wilhelm</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">12.9</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1962</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Brooks Robinson</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">15.2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Hoyt Wilhelm</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">15.6</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1963</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Brooks Robinson</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">18</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Milt Pappas</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">15.5</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1964</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Brooks Robinson</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">26</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Milt Pappas</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">19</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1965</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Brooks Robinson</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">30.5</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Milt Pappas</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">21.8</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1966</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Brooks Robinson</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">35.1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Steve Barber</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">17.5</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1967</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Brooks Robinson</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">42.8</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Steve Barber</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">17</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1968</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Brooks Robinson</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">51.2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Dave McNally</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">10.2</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1969</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Brooks Robinson</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">55.4</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Dick Hall</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">12.6</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1970</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Brooks Robinson</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">59.3</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Dave McNally</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">16.4</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1971</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Brooks Robinson</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">65.2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Dave McNally</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">19.5</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1972</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Brooks Robinson</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">68.7</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Jim Palmer</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">22.3</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1973</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Brooks Robinson</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">72.3</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Jim Palmer</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">28.6</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1974</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Brooks Robinson</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">77.3</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Jim Palmer</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">30</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1975</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Brooks Robinson</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">79.1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Jim Palmer</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">38.5</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1976</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Brooks Robinson</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">78.6</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Jim Palmer</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">45</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1977</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Brooks Robinson</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">78.4</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Jim Palmer</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">52.4</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1978</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Mark Belanger</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">40</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Jim Palmer</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">58.8</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1979</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Mark Belanger</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">40.7</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Jim Palmer</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">61</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1980</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Mark Belanger</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">41.1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Jim Palmer</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">62.7</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1981</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Mark Belanger</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">40.8</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Jim Palmer</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">63.8</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1982</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Ken Singleton</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">30</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Jim Palmer</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">68.6</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1983</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Eddie Murray</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">32.5</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Jim Palmer</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">68.8</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1984</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Eddie Murray</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">39.6</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Jim Palmer</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">68</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1985</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Eddie Murray</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">45.2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Mike Flanagan</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">18.9</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1986</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Eddie Murray</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">49.3</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Mike Flanagan</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">20.2</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1987</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Eddie Murray</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">53.2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Mike Flanagan</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">20.7</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1988</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Eddie Murray</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">56.4</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Scott McGregor</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">20.2</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1989</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Cal Ripken Jr.</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">50.2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Bob Milacki</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">4.5</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1990</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Cal Ripken Jr.</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">57.7</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Mark Williamson</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">5.9</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1991</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Cal Ripken Jr.</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">69.3</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Gregg Olson</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">7</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1992</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Cal Ripken Jr.</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">73.3</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Mike Flanagan</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">21.9</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1993</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Cal Ripken Jr.</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">77.1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Mike Mussina</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">12</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1994</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Cal Ripken Jr.</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">81.1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Mike Mussina</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">17.5</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1995</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Cal Ripken Jr.</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">85</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Mike Mussina</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">23.6</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1996</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Cal Ripken Jr.</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">88.8</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Mike Mussina</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">27.2</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1997</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Cal Ripken Jr.</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">90.6</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Mike Mussina</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">32.7</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1998</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Cal Ripken Jr.</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">92.5</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Mike Mussina</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">37.7</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">1999</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Cal Ripken Jr.</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">95.2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Mike Mussina</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">42.1</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">2000</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Cal Ripken Jr.</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">96.5</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Mike Mussina</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">47.8</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">2001</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Cal Ripken Jr.</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">95.9</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Scott Erickson</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">14</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">2002</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Mike Bordick</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">14.5</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Scott Erickson</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">13.2</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">2003</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">BJ Surhoff</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">16.4</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Sidney Ponson</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">12</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">2004</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Rafael Palmeiro</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">24.2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Sidney Ponson</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">13.4</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">2005</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Rafael Palmeiro</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">24.4</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Sidney Ponson</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">12.1</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">2006</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Melvin Mora</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">25.1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Rodrigo Lopez</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">9.3</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">2007</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Melvin Mora</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">27.2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Erik Bedard</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">12.8</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">2008</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Melvin Mora</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">29.1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Jeremy Guthrie</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">8.1</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">2009</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Melvin Mora</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">29.1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Jeremy Guthrie</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">10</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">2010</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Brian Roberts</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">29.2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Jeremy Guthrie</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">14.5</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">2011</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Brian Roberts</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">29.3</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Jeremy Guthrie</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">16.2</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">2012</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Brian Roberts</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">28.2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Jim Johnson</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">8.7</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">2013</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Brian Roberts</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">29</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Jim Johnson</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">10</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">2014</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Nick Markakis</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">25.6</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Chris Tillman</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">8.3</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">2015</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Adam Jones</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">27.4</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Wei-Yin Chen</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">9.8</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">2016</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Adam Jones</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">28.8</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Chris Tillman</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">12.7</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">2017</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Adam Jones</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">31.4</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Darren O'Day</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">11.1</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">2018</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Adam Jones</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">31.7</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Darren O'Day</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">11.5</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</blockquote>
Adam Jones, sitting at 31.7 bWAR, would be the greatest departure of a player based on their Orioles career since Cal Ripken Jr.'s lofty 95.9 bWAR left the Yard. Perhaps interesting is that if Manny Machado would have finished the season in Baltimore, he would be north of 33 bWAR and take the crown of accomplishment from Jones (based only on this metric).<br />
<br />
Regardless, this is a passing of the torch. As Jones departs, Chris Davis' 16.1 bWAR takes over and he is already a specter of years past. Beyond Davis is another potential departure in Caleb Joseph with his 4.2 bWAR. Beyond him? Tim Beckham's 2.4 bWAR. On the pitching side, Darren O'Day has already departed and this leaves Mychal Givens' 5.3 bWAR reigning supreme. Dylan Bundy at 4.9 is a shade behind him.<br />
<br />
Anyway, Davis' 16.1 would be the lowest value for a leader since Mike Bordick's 14.5 bWAR in 2002. To find someone who is below Givens' 5.3, you must travel back to 1989's Bob Milacki and his 4.5 value. In the past, the Orioles have been a club with at least a name of a player who is ingrained in Baltimore. Sometimes those names were deep, such as Cal Ripken Jr., Jim Palmer, or Brooks Robinson. Sometimes they were less deep, such as Melvin Mora, Milt Pappas, or Rafael Palmeiro. Sometimes they were just a whisper in the Inner Harbor breeze, such as Jim Johnson, Mark Williamson, or Connie Johnson.<br />
<br />
There might be some whispers next year.Jon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-54335166903283640002018-09-12T06:00:00.000-04:002018-09-12T06:00:03.113-04:00Book Review on Better Times: Something Magic<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguYoSbY7nmx_MQOV8N0IFzwlZdDhialR0Vq1lmGpxKD0mFBJYAfaRSXsaSXrYzyajWW_OT668J_viGXQfIaTeCdP-j_f9i4pydL6CEJr_kY8SCdo5716EpMh2Yk3Ivc043VO3Gpg4t6m1O/s1600/511AcG3aUuL.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="333" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguYoSbY7nmx_MQOV8N0IFzwlZdDhialR0Vq1lmGpxKD0mFBJYAfaRSXsaSXrYzyajWW_OT668J_viGXQfIaTeCdP-j_f9i4pydL6CEJr_kY8SCdo5716EpMh2Yk3Ivc043VO3Gpg4t6m1O/s400/511AcG3aUuL.jpg" width="266" /></a><i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Something-Magic-Baltimore-Orioles-1983/dp/0786499354" target="_blank">Something Magic: The Baltimore Orioles, 1979-1983</a></i> is a fairly straight forward accounting of the last hurrah of the original Orioles dynasty that lasted about 20 years. The book largely depends on several hundred articles written at the time to piece together the more meaningful aspects leading up to that final run and throughout it. For those who lived through these events, I would imagine that this work will unleash a flood of great memories. For those like me born during this run or much later, it is a sober account of what transpired during a more jubilant time of baseball in Baltimore.<br />
<br />
Perhaps one of the more interesting aspects of this work is that the first 78 pages describe the path that baseball took in Baltimore from 1858 to the threshold of the 1979 season. It covers a lot of ground that I had picked up in other books. Bill Veeck's tenure with the St. Louis Browns and being squeezed out in the sale of the franchise to Baltimore is covered here though not in the excruciating detail you get on the books whose focal point in Veeck and not providing background for the Orioles.<br />
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Likewise, the book draws from the Wizard of Waxahachie and a couple other sources to discuss Paul Richards. Similar to Veeck, the book presents a more positive and less nuanced few of Richards when describing how the Oriole Way is the Richards Way. For instance, while it notes how much of a tinkerer Richards was and how he was interested in streamlining/standardizing instruction, it fails to mention how his success in finding players largely had to do with having money to buy them because he was actually a fairly<br />
poor evaluator. He just used a great system. That said, it probably is outside the scope of this work.<br />
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I may have missed it in the citations, but the work also appears to miss the work recently done on Brooks Robinson in the <a href="http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2014/01/a-review-of-brooks-biography-of-brooks.html" target="_blank">Brooks autobiography</a> that was recently released. That work would fill in some gaps in the discussion running up through the 50s, 60s, and 70s. While that book is fairly white bread, it does seem to give the impression that Something Magic perhaps leans on period print articles a bit too much as being completely accurate depictions.<br />
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One element that comes up again and again are the depictions of fan programs being used as evidence to show that there was something special about Baltimore. It is said, but not compared with what was going on around the league. Therefore, it reads more like public relation work that would appear in newspapers and opinion pieces. Maybe I am being too harsh, but it seems like a more critical eye and perhaps more first hand interviews could have contextualized these events more.<br />
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The final hundred or so pages describes the run noted in the title. The writing meanders with the ebb and flow of seasonal sports writing. Spring optimism gets grinded through the season and tid bits of information sprinkle through. Again, I think for those who lived through the era it would be a great memory jogger as it discusses work stoppages, Jim Palmer acting on television shows, negotiations for what would become Camden Yards, failed attempts to sign Reggie Jackson and trade for Gary Templeton, and the pondering of who could actually replace Earl Weaver.<br />
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Perhaps with a longer format, these interesting tidbits could be expanded and something more interesting or profound could be elucidated. As is, much of the information comes off in tangents off of the main slog which is a very newsprint push forward of this time.<br />
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The final chapter brings everything up to the present day. Highlighting some aspects and quiet on others. All in all, the book does well to set the tone for this five year period and wind down from it. Where it fits in the works about the Orioles, I do not know. I think for a more recent Orioles fan, it teases you with a great number of tidbits that leave you wanting more and, perhaps, searching out books mentioned in the citations and beyond.<br />
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Something Magic: The Baltimore Orioles, 1979-1983<br />
by Charles Kupfer<br />
McFarland and Company, Inc.<br />
212 pp.Jon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-88169853306588760892018-09-11T09:00:00.000-04:002018-09-11T09:00:01.797-04:00A new low in the Orioles nightmare season<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyTjDoMYP6VKegb4xoAMKE53mgYEUiOB8igwg9bkzAFARu0oWzPTNyhB7NioQV483N2hBMmUmKlaAiZwp0rWoE6UF9TjmFBhKQDlQt1RUTBjcTwAxPRax6v3fGHR4uomBRjI8QUJNxfbg/s1600/WarehouseLogo.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1050" data-original-width="1050" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyTjDoMYP6VKegb4xoAMKE53mgYEUiOB8igwg9bkzAFARu0oWzPTNyhB7NioQV483N2hBMmUmKlaAiZwp0rWoE6UF9TjmFBhKQDlQt1RUTBjcTwAxPRax6v3fGHR4uomBRjI8QUJNxfbg/s320/WarehouseLogo.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
Bad baseball seasons happen. In sports, and in life, someone has to win and someone has to lose. Between 2012 and 2016 the Orioles did a lot of winning. It was natural for the pendulum to swing in the opposite direction. But the ferocity with which that pendulum has swung is what has caught many of us off guard.<br />
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The 2018 Orioles will go down as the worst team in franchise history and one of the worst teams in recent baseball history. But "worst" in this context refers to win-loss record. Wins, as many people say, is the most important stat. That's true in the standings, but there are many different ways to win a game. Just as teams can have fortunate seasons where they succeed in a high percentage of close contests, the opposite can happen as well. That is not what is occurring to these Orioles.<br />
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The entire season has been a disaster, but this past weekend in Tampa Bay may have been an all-time low. The Orioles were crushed, in every phase of the game, by a solid, above-average Rays team. There were weird wild pitches, numerous fielding miscues and seemingly an overall lack of execution on the fundamentals of the game. <a href="https://www.baltimorebaseball.com/2018/09/09/joseph-fumes-orioles-complete-awful-road-trip/" target="_blank">Caleb Joseph publicly made his opinion known</a>, verbalizing what many had already known to be true.<br />
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What makes this season frustrating is not the number of losses, but rather the inability of the players and coaches to identify flaws in their game and implement a change for the better. There has been no indication that anyone involved at the club understands what's wrong. Dylan Bundy continues to implode on the mound, routine plays continue to be botched, and sometimes it feels like no one in the bullpen can get opposing hitters out. Instead it is rather, rinse, repeat.<br />
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Perhaps the sad truth is that there is just too little talent to work with on this roster. That feels like a poor and convenient excuse. If that is the reasoning for such poor baseball, then it should make for some easy personnel decisions in the offseason.<br />
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-77322119196236764712018-09-07T11:04:00.000-04:002018-09-07T11:04:48.633-04:00Who Will Lead the Orioles to the Land Flowing with Cold Beer and Pit Beef?God promised Abraham that if he followed the righteous path that he would be led to a land flowing with milk and honey. In Baltimore, perhaps we seek something more akin to a place with limitless beer and pit beef, a few World Series wins. At the moment, publicly, we do not know who will be tasked with keeping the franchise on the right path toward success. What public clues we have are few and far between. We know Dan Duquette is talking as if he is in control of the future. We know MASN is teasing about whether Buck Showalter will stick around for the rebuild. We know that Brady Anderson is more interested in lawn care and free lifts than sitting in an office managing resources.<br />
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The MASN actions certainly feel like they have been told to focus on Buck Showalter as the season ends for whatever reason. I would be surprised if they are teasing their audience with these tweets without knowing or being told that this is something to do and that Buck is fine with it. It almost convinces me that he will be connected to the Orioles after this season is done, but it does make one wonder to what effect will he remain with the club. At 62, he is coming to the end of his dugout years and there is a research base that suggests that managers are best suited for the tasks they must perform from ages 45-55. Not all individuals fit that neat peak, but it is considered by those in management research field to be the ripe age for a MLB manager. So, will he assume the reins of General Manager (or whatever the Angeloses prefer to call that) or maybe a mid-2000s Nolan Ryan figurehead position?<br />
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While Buck has carried with him the mantle of a team builder who cannot cross the final hurdle, there is some argument to be had whether he is a team builder. His control over pieces with the Yankees was effectively nothing. In Arizona, he was in charge of creating the organization and is credited to their eventual World Series success similar to how Dan Duquette is credited with Theo Epstein's Boston success. His mode of operation in Arizona was to quickly evaluate young players. Those that did not fit what he wanted, he dealt them out for solid veteran players.<br />
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Buck traded away talents such as Joe Randa, Jeff Suppan, Tony Batista, Brad Penny, Vincente Padilla, and Travis Lee to acquire older talents like Matt Williams, Luis Gonzalez, Dan Plesac, Matt Mantei, Tony Womack, and Curt Schilling. All in all it looks like a good batch, but it is really solely dependent on Curt Schilling's success. Without his 35.4 bWAR for the Diamondbacks, the net effect of dealing out young players for proven veterans would have been a net loss of 24.4 wins. Can you just excise Schilling from all this? No, but it shows that Buck was not making great trades left and right as the man behind the plan.<br />
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In Texas, John Hart's dominance as general manager was diminished when Buck was hired for the 2003 season and Buck's influence was high through Jon Daniels first season in 2006. The deals during this 2003-2005 range though were interesting. Travis Hafner was dealt out for Einar Diaz and Ryan Drese (-24.1 bWAR). traded away Ryan Ludwick for Ricardo Rodriguez and Shane Spencer (-9.8 bWAR). Figured out with Hart and others that Alex Rodriguez was sinking the team with his contract and dealt him away (~42 bWAR). Alphonso Soriano was then dealt a couple seasons later at a loss (-3.2 BWAR). A monumentally terrible trade sent Adrian Gonzalez (who was stolen from the Marlins in a deal for Ugueth Urbina) and Chris Young dealt to the Padres for veteran pitcher Adam Eaton and veteran closer Akinori Otsuka (-24.6 bWAR, which doesn't include the value of the players the Padres got back in the Red Sox deal). This looks like I am just picking terrible deals, but I am really just picking the main deals that involved players that wound up doing something. The team that included Showalter had their best deal with acquiring Adrian Gonzalez, but were unable to figure out what they had in him over a couple seasons.<br />
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In Baltimore, it has been more difficult to see what exactly lays at Buck's or Duquette's feet. Buck has been a major proponent in several acquisitions. He was involved in re-signing Darren O'Day, wanted Matt Wieters back, wanted Chris Tillman back, was highly interested in Andrew Cashner, was aggressive with Colby Rasmus twice, and other veteran style acquisitions. He tends to have his favorites, which usually are older players, and quickly dismisses young talent or tasks them with pointless activities like book reports. The point of all this being that maybe he is not the best guy to be in charge of overseeing a finishing school for young talent or be heavily involved in evaluating that talent.<br />
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Again, I find it hard to believe that MASN would continue an advertisement tease about whether or not Buck will be around to see the rebuild without being told to do that. It makes me think he will be around and maybe even higher up in the organization. That said, I was told from someone outside of the organization that in their every dealing with Duquette or someone else in the front office that they are near certain that Duquette will remain in his position. He told me that the front office is not acting like there is a change in regime happening, they are acting like they will have the ball come November and beyond. Take that for what that is worth.<br />
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What does it mean if Dan Duquette remains? It bears repeating that Dan Duquette literally took a joke of a franchise into the playoffs three times and was a series away from the World Series. The organization he ran did this on a mid-level roster using a core his predecessor put together, but by effectively rebuilding and reconfiguring the pitching staff, the bench, and a couple role players. It showed a combination of luck and skill along with the flexibility to utilize outside of the box thinking, such as making Manny Machado a third baseman, becoming one of the first teams to emphasize defensive shifts, utilizing alternative markets and options to find successful players, and creating the industry trend of waiting out free agents well into the off season. All of that happened. All of that is real. So, while Duquette cuts a rather mixed path it is important to note that his team got a lot of things right and it led to the success he saw that was never supposed to happen. Add that to his work with the Red Sox and Expos, you can see why he has had a long career in baseball and why the Blue Jays were so eager to have him run their organization a few years back.<br />
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Yes, there are also negatives. Those negatives he widely has noted this past year. They traded a lot of aspects of organizational health to maximize their on-field play during the past several years. That meant taking a foolishly meager international budget that was unique in MLB operations and somehow finding new ways to gut it even further after the unexpected success of 2012 accelerated the clocks. Infighting has also prevented the club from incorporating analytics into their developmental system. When some analytics have been pushed into use, they were chosen poorly (i.e., Rick Peterson). Trading away and sacrificing draft picks on conditional free agents thinned out the Orioles top end prospects and the club frequently dealt away fringe prospect talent for low ceiling veterans, a practice that eventually caught up with the club.<br />
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Needless to say it has been a tough time and fascinating in how it brought so much success.<br />
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Now, lets suggest that the indications mentioned above are wrong. That both Duquette and Buck will not be in charge of the rebuild moving forward. What kind of talent is out there?<br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">Two Exciting Names that Must Be on the Interview List</span><br />
<i>Amiel Sawdaye</i><br />
Maryland native who was named the Red Sox Scouting Director in 2010 at 33, then promoted to the Vice President of International and Amateur Scouting for the Red Sox at age 38, and then quickly off to the Arizona Diamondbacks as Assistant General Manager. With the Red Sox he integrated analytics, video, and scouting to improve and streamline their system, something the Orioles drastically need improvement on. He is a communicator who can quickly understand a wide range of ideas and locate people to implement them. Sawdaye is effectively what Dan Duquette was seen as in the early 1990s.<br />
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<i>Kyle Stark</i><br />
The Pirates did it first. That is a common response to any major change in baseball these past several years seen as successful enough to implement all around. While the Orioles were quick to adapt defensive shifts, the Pirates were the standard bearer. Stark came onto the scene with the Indians and did a decent amount of analytics work for them, but show interest and ability on the developmental side. As the Pirates' farm director, he took an antiquated system and began to standardize it within the organizational, emphasizing not only the usage of analytics but how to communicate them. As an Assistant General Manager, his duties have expanded as well as the number of people working under him. Stark is similar to Sawdaye with perhaps one exception, Stark has had to face the realities of a small market club which narrows the room for error.<br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">Two Names that are Found on the Rolodex</span><br />
<i>Ned Colletti</i><br />
Colletti was reported to have interviewed with the Orioles earlier this season. Some dispute that report. Colletti fits more of the traditional Orioles perspective in finding an established and respected person who could immediately step into the position. That was what led to Pat Gillick, Syd Thrift, Jim Beattie, Andy MacPhail, and Dan Duquette. A firm resume was something that it always seemed like Peter Angelos looked for. And, it makes sense. If you do not really understand what is going on then you find people who have had success in the past. Colletti has had success, but it was largely considered a product of inheriting a strong developmental system and having extra cash to throw around. In the end, Colletti was dispatched for not being current with new approaches to baseball and repeatedly underwhelming on-field play.<br />
<i>Paul DePodesta</i><br />
You may remember DePodesta from Superbad, 21 Jump Street, or Moneyball. Oh wait, that is Jonah Hill. You may remember DePodesta from the book Moneyball and how Beane greatly depended on him for those turn of the 2000s Athletics teams. You may also remember how he took that perspective to the Dodgers, clashed with the media, and was loudly and ceremoniously fired. You may also remember how he then was picked up by the Padres and then Mets before rocking the NFL when he was hired to helm the Browns franchise. You may also remember how the Browns franchise has been repeatedly criticized for thinking itself to be the smartest team in the front office as well as how it all went to pot this past offseason. Going to pot makes one wonder to what extent Paul DePodesta still runs things over there with a new General Manager in town with John Dorsey who turned over about 60% of the roster. DePodesta, with his former baseball success and analytical prowess a couple decades back, looks like a fresher version of Duquette.<br />
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Looking Forward<br />
Realistically, I think Duquette is the right path that the Orioles would be capable of making. In terms of running an organization, I have more faith in him than I do with Showalter. It also helps that Duquette has seen success over such a fractured franchise. If wishes were horses, then moving forward with a young talent like Sawdaye or Stark would see obvious to me. If they want to go over second hand tires again, then DePodesta might be able to run the team in a more modern fashion than I think Colletti would be able to do.Jon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-25738226659051025382018-09-06T09:00:00.000-04:002018-09-06T09:00:08.769-04:00The September Call-Ups Have Begun! <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
September call-ups can be such a mixed bag. Occasionally, an organization's next great player does make their debut in the fall after knocking on the door all summer. More often, that player has broken down the door by July and become a vital part of the everyday lineup by the season's final month.</div>
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Cedric Mullins is not the type of transcendent player that a franchise will build around for a decade, but he seems to have a pretty good chance at being a solid regular in the big leagues for a long time. For the 2018 Orioles, in all likelihood, that is going to be the most exciting promotion of this season. Don't panic. That's OK!</div>
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Getting placed on the 40-man roster and then the MLB roster is based on a combination of things. What it is not always the result of is being one of the 40 best players in a team's organization. Does someone want to make the argument that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is NOT one of the Blue Jays 40 best players? Probably not. And yet, he is not on their 40-man roster. Why? Because the Blue Jays don't have to place him there yet, and they aren't in a position, as a team, where they are ready to compete.</div>
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Mullins had to be placed on the 40-man roster at some point this offseason to avoid being eligible for the Rule 5 Draft. The same will be the case for D.J. Stewart and Dillon Tate among others. That fact, coupled with Mullins's performance in Norfolk, forced the Orioles hand. That doesn't mean that Mullins wasn't ready for Baltimore. He was. But if he had another year before the Rule 5 problem reared it's head, he may have stayed an additional year down on the farm. If he's on the 40-man, the team may as well find out what he's got at the highest level.</div>
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Some of the Orioles very top prospects won't be up this season because it buys them time. Ryan Mountcastle and Yusniel Diaz won't be up because that would require putting them on the 40-man roster a year before the O's have any pressure to do so. Instead, we will see guys like Steve Wilkerson and Luis Ortiz. </div>
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This is not a team in win-now mode. They need to learn about their players in a fashion that makes the most sense logistically. That's what they are doing. It's not always exciting, and sometimes it's frustrating, but in the end it is smarter than flooding the MLB roster with young standouts.</div>
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<i style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif;">You can subscribe or listen to the podcast on </span><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-warehouse/id1370948739?mt=2" style="color: #743600; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">iTunes/Apple Podcasts</a><span style="font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif;">, </span><a href="https://play.google.com/music/m/I4wtjxlq5sev3xpctc3bu4upy74?t=The_Warehouse_-_a_Baltimore_Orioles_podcast" style="color: #743600; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Google Play</a><span style="font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif;">, </span><a href="https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/the-warehouse" style="color: #743600; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Stitcher</a><span style="font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif;">, </span><a href="https://thewarehousepod.podbean.com/" style="color: #743600; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Podbean</a><span style="font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif;">, </span><a href="https://tunein.com/podcasts/Sports--Recreation-Podcasts/The-Warehouse-p1119503/?topicId=121626133" style="color: #743600; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">TuneIn</a><span style="font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif;"> and a few other places as well. If you are into social media, we can be found on </span><a href="https://twitter.com/thewarehousepod" style="color: #743600; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Twitter</a><span style="font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif;">, </span><a href="https://www.facebook.com/TheWarehousePod/" style="color: #743600; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Facebook</a><span style="font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif;">, </span><a href="https://www.instagram.com/thewarehousepod/" style="color: #743600; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Instagram</a><span style="font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif;"> and </span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCQCLpHQDrP2BeS9MoAS6zFw" style="color: #743600; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">YouTube</a><span style="font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif;">. Wherever you go, give us a five-star review or a "Like". It helps us out a ton! Thanks for the support!</span></i><br />
<br />
<iframe data-name="pb-iframe-player" frameborder="0" height="315" scrolling="no" src="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/cazxh-9916ac?from=site&vjs=1&skin=1&fonts=Helvetica&auto=0&download=0" width="100%"></iframe>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-70026438763521731422018-09-05T10:19:00.001-04:002018-09-05T10:19:59.426-04:00The Orioles are More than Just Mullins<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlRHRew8T5qVhGyHTRXOlP4vDkaZaJrLp1wD_5vrBIW1DauUOxx0sXvG9ei8B1z9mV2CAQiRl9Btu_vHVxWide2qWATqk6J5pdIjIhNsfZDkdJyObOOVfEcJj_3OslHVn-KY_t0NvJKGJw/s1600/Mullins.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="967" data-original-width="1440" height="267" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlRHRew8T5qVhGyHTRXOlP4vDkaZaJrLp1wD_5vrBIW1DauUOxx0sXvG9ei8B1z9mV2CAQiRl9Btu_vHVxWide2qWATqk6J5pdIjIhNsfZDkdJyObOOVfEcJj_3OslHVn-KY_t0NvJKGJw/s400/Mullins.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
The title, I did not ask for permission from the scout to use that statement, but as I wrote this it felt on the nose. The last few days the concern over Cedric Mullins riding the pine when the opposing lineup card includes a starting southpaw has reached a fevered pitch. Worries have arisen on whether the Orioles have firmly concluded that Mullins is a platoon hitter and are gaming their gameday lineup to try to win a game or two. Others worry that by shielding him from left handed starters that his ability to hit them will not improve. There are also declarations that Cedric Mullins is better and a more important future piece than either Joey Rickard or John Andreoli. Therefore, he should not sit for them.<br />
<br />
I think the outrage at Mullins sitting is understandable. It is a frustrating season. It is particularly hard on anyone who bludgeons themselves with watching every single game. Mullins is perhaps an important piece of the Orioles future and there certainly is a desire to forget the now and embrace the future. Play the kids. We also see this in calls for the Orioles to bring up anyone arguably on their organizational top ten prospects from Norfolk or Bowie. And, to be clear, this is not outrage from a few folks, but rather broad and consistent disapproval of sitting Mullins.<br />
<br />
Buck has been repeatedly asked about Mullins sitting out. He has noted that Mullins has a nagging hip injury that kept him out of a national game that Buck wanted him to have exposure in. Buck has also noted that the hip really does not keep Mullins out of the lineup now. That he wants to see different players in rotations. Last night, Mullins pinch hit for Andreoli when the left handed starter was replaced by a right hander. It is clear that the Orioles are putting their thumb down on the scale to expose Mullins to more right handers. And it does bear a question about whether this is a problem? Is it dumb as some have said? Is it indicative of reasons why this club is the worst in baseball?<br />
<br />
I think it is important to step back and really think functionally about player development and roster optimization. I think we all can agree that this season no longer matters with respect to the wins and losses. That ship sailed a long time ago with respect to the playoffs and more recently with respect to who will get to pick first overall. Let us tackle the developmental perspective first.<br />
<br />
One concern is that by shielding Mullins from starting left handers that it will hurt his ability to develop that skill. Here is a crude look (i.e., OPS) of his minor league career.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; text-align: center; width: 192px;">
<colgroup><col span="3" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 48pt;" width="64">OPS</td>
<td style="width: 48pt;" width="64">vs. Left</td>
<td style="width: 48pt;" width="64">vs. Right</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">2015</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">.549</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">.765</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">2016</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">.632</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">.831</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">2017</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">.604</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">.863</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">2018</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">.700</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">.847</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</blockquote>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Overall, Mullins has roughly 400 PA against left handers in the minors and has improved slightly on them, arguably. It is pretty much the only real knock on him. This season in the majors, Mullins has faced lefthanders 21 times, striking out 9 times and managing three hits. It has not been pretty and it never really have been pretty for him with respect to that aspect of his game.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
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<div style="text-align: left;">
Functionally, if Showalter is sitting Mullins against left handed starters (not left handed reliever who have simpler pitch mixes) the rest of the month then that means that Mullins will likely miss out on about four or five left handed starting pitchers. About 15 PA at most against lefties. So, developmentally, does Mullins facing lefthanders in those 15 PA have a meaningful impact on his future performance against them? I have a hard time seeing that it would have any meaningful impact. Developmentally, I do not see the argument there as reasonable or certain in that Mullins must be in the lineup.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Developmentally, is there a benefit to putting Mullins in batting situations where he is more likely to hit off of a right hander? There certainly is an argument in player development that when you expose a young prospect to the Majors that you want them to be in situations where success is more likely and to control adversity. This is a long held notion and it was one that the Mariners used with Adam Jones in his two seasons there and something the Orioles emphasized with Jones at the beginning of his first season in Baltimore. Really, it serves two purposes. One, you are maximizing a player's confidence by having him experience success. Two, the season is long and tiring, especially for a rookie who is acclimating and a breather here and there is thought of as a good thing to help keep the player from burning out.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
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<div style="text-align: left;">
This leads to another point. This is the longest Cedric Mullins has ever played baseball. He was done in August in 2015 with some time in the instructional league. In 2016, his professional games doubles to 124 and he also had some instructional league time. Injuries kept Mullins to 76 games in 2017 and he was left off the instructional roster as well as no ball in the Arizona Fall League. This year, he has played in 131 games and is likely to play another 12-15 more. This is his longest season and this last stretch is fairly demanding physically and emotionally on a rookie. </div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
The Orioles did not do this with Austin Hays last year with Showalter desperate for outfield help. Hays played daily, logged 20 games in September and finished with a 217/238/317 split. Most folks remember Hays at his highwater mark with a 316/350/526 split on September 18th, but he crashed. He went for 7 for 41 to end the season with one walk and 11 strikeouts. Some thought that he was rushed and over exposed too soon. In turn, that it led to some problems coming into the season that took him all year to straighten out. It should also be noted that Buck had repeatedly asked for Duquette to promote Hays since early August, but that Duquette refused for fear of overexposing Hays. Maybe that perspective cemented and they are imposing that on Buck or Buck now agrees or that outside of a playoff race that it really does not matter anymore.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Besides needing a blow now and then, it should be restated that Mullins is getting treatment for his hip every day. It is not healed. The injury was severe enough that he was shelved in a game Buck wanted him to play and is something that is nagging Mullins. That injury may notprevent Mullins from playing, but it certainly would be something a team would want to manage. Holding him out against lefties and concentrating on right handed hitting is sensible if you have to maximize return on his experiences.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Now, is sitting on a bench of any value to a player? Often you hear about a young player being sent down to get regular at bats, to stay sharp. You also hear about veterans complaining about playing time and needing more plate appearances to stay sharp. We also know that players who pinch hit tend to do worse doing that than when they play regularly. Those are all true and it is also true that that reality is something used to pull a punch. </div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
On top of that, we also hear anecdotally about players learning about approach and other subtleties by sitting next to a veteran or a coach during a game. Managers sometimes order players to watch a game with a specific person on the team in order to learn things. Showalter did this with Dylan Bundy during his first taste of the Majors. The Yankees did this with Derek Jeter when he broke in. It is common and an accepted notion in development. Does it actually work? I do not know, but mentoring has been shown to be quite effective outside of baseball and some think that mentoring explains how some managers tend to outperform expectations regularly.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
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<div style="text-align: left;">
This gets me to my last point and what I noted earlier: the Orioles are more than just Cedric Mullins. As I developed this article in my head, I talked to a scout who focuses on minor leaguers. To paraphrase him, he said that there should not be a controversy here. There are several balls in the air that the organization needs to sort out and in the process of doing that, they can give Mullins an ideal introduction to the Majors. This introduction focuses on him building off his success in the minors, repeating what he did well down there, but not overly challenging him to make him question his approach. On top of that, they are letting him taste adversity without letting that adversity dominate the narrative.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
This, compared to the offseason, is the ideal time to get a few more looks on Joey Rickard and John Andreoli to figure out just what they have in them and whether they should be protected this winter on the forty man roster. Rickard and Andreoli both fit a needed role, which is a fourth outfielder who can cover all three positions in a pinch. They also complement Mullins if indeed he cannot improve upon his performance against left handers next year and needs some platooning. This failed season provides the opportunity for the club to get a better look to better discern whether they have answers currently on the roster for positions that need to be filled beyond Mullins or whether they will need to explore the market for solutions.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
The team is not Cedric Mullins. Mullins' development is important, but there are other parts of this roster that need to be determined. Having Mullins sit is reasonable and emphasizing his success is also reasonable.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
This situation reminds me of Zach Britton sitting in the bullpen as the Orioles faced an elimination game against Toronto. Buck failed. Britton was rested. He had one of the best seasons in MLB history. Buck instead chose to send in a shaky Ubaldo Jimenez into extra innings in a tie game instead of tapping his left arm for Britton and the Orioles paid. Buck had no explanation for his failure. At least, nothing that made any sense. Showalter was hammered for that decision and deserved it.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
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<div style="text-align: left;">
In this case, we have plentiful reasons why sitting Mullins against left handed starters makes sense. We have established practices that are not easily disproven as the save rule practice is easily disproven with the above Britton scenario. For me to step beyond all these reasons, to be audacious and contradict the organization's choice in this instance, I need proof. I need evidence. I do not have that. In fact, all my evidence declares that the objections do not really hold water. It is hard to see how this impairs Mullins' development and that is really what it comes down to.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Yes, I understand that this season has been terrible. I understand that fans want to see the kids play. They want to take solace in the future and forget the present in the form of easily identifiable pieces that will likely have importance in the future. But, the organization is not Mullins. They have other questions to answer and playing every day through the end of the season may not even be good for Mullins.</div>
Jon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-45380868234731470382018-08-31T06:00:00.000-04:002018-08-31T06:00:09.901-04:00Orioles State of First Base: 2019-2023As 2015 wound down, Peter Angelos spoke openly to local reporters. He noted how important it was to the Orioles to be able to retain their first baseman, Chris Davis. At that point in time, Davis was coming off his second best season of his career. It was the second year that put him in the discussion as being the Most Valuable Player. He certainly provided a great deal of production that the 2016 Orioles would need to account for and the comfortable way to think you are doing that is simply to re-sign those that performed the year before.<br />
<br />
However, at the Depot there was concern. There was also hope as the Tigers were becoming more and more engaged with Davis. Dan Duquette tried to cover the gap by trading for Mark Trumbo with plans to play him at first base and to seek either a starting pitcher or a corner outfielder. While Davis was fairly exceptional in 2013 and 2015, his other seasons and 2014 were of concern. His profile was unique in MLB history as his contact rate appeared to be barely adequate to maintain his value and his body type looked like one whose athleticism would leave in a hurry.<br />
<br />
As you know, fate drifted Davis back to the Orioles on what was considered conventionally a great deal with significant deferred money. Again, at the Depot and elsewhere there was more concern than celebration. What then transpired was worse than what we imagined. Davis, now with four years to go, is seemingly entrenched at first base and utterly terrible.<br />
<br />
So what does it look like?<br />
<br />
<div class="sr_share_wrap" style="overflow: auto;">
<table class="sr_share" data-cols-to-freeze="2" id="" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: 1px #aaa; font-size: 0.83em; overflow: auto;"><caption>First Base Table</caption>
<colgroup><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th data-stat="player" scope="col" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">Name</th>
<th data-stat="age" scope="col" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">Age</th>
<th data-stat="level_summary" scope="col" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">Lev</th>
<th data-filter="1" data-name="Batting Average" data-stat="batting_avg" scope="col" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">BA</th>
<th data-filter="1" data-name="On-Base%" data-stat="onbase_perc" scope="col" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">OBP</th>
<th data-filter="1" data-name="Slugging %" data-stat="slugging_perc" scope="col" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">SLG</th>
<th data-stat="pos_summary" scope="col" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">Pos Summary</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr data-row="0"><td data-append-csv="redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=448801" data-stat="player" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><strong><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool&player=1&mlb_ID=448801">Davis, Chris</a></strong>*</td><td data-stat="age" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">32</td><td data-stat="level_summary" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">MAJ</td><td data-stat="batting_avg" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.163</td><td data-stat="onbase_perc" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.241</td><td data-stat="slugging_perc" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.306</td><td data-stat="pos_summary" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">1B-102, DH-4</td></tr>
<tr data-row="1"><td data-append-csv="redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=476883" data-stat="player" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">Trey Mancini</td><td data-stat="age" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">26</td><td data-stat="level_summary" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">MAJ</td><td data-stat="batting_avg" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.235</td><td data-stat="onbase_perc" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.299</td><td data-stat="slugging_perc" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.386</td><td data-stat="pos_summary" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">LF-96, DH-3, 1B-26</td></tr>
<tr data-row="4"><td data-append-csv="redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=573669" data-stat="player" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool&player=1&mlb_ID=573669">Rodriguez, Aderlin</a></td><td data-stat="age" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">26</td><td data-stat="level_summary" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">AA</td><td data-stat="batting_avg" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.280</td><td data-stat="onbase_perc" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.328</td><td data-stat="slugging_perc" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.468</td><td data-stat="pos_summary" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">1B-102, 3B-11, DH-2, LF-2</td></tr>
<tr data-row="7"><td data-append-csv="redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=600902" data-stat="player" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool&player=1&mlb_ID=600902">Garcia, Wilson</a>#</td><td data-stat="age" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">24</td><td data-stat="level_summary" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">H-A</td><td data-stat="batting_avg" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.304</td><td data-stat="onbase_perc" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.334</td><td data-stat="slugging_perc" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.533</td><td data-stat="pos_summary" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">1B-54, DH-46, C-3</td></tr>
<tr data-row="8"><td data-append-csv="redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=670365" data-stat="player" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool&player=1&mlb_ID=670365">Woody, Collin</a></td><td data-stat="age" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">23</td><td data-stat="level_summary" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">H-A</td><td data-stat="batting_avg" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.226</td><td data-stat="onbase_perc" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.332</td><td data-stat="slugging_perc" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.439</td><td data-stat="pos_summary" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">1B-48, 3B-16, LF-6, DH-2, P-1</td></tr>
<tr data-row="11"><td data-append-csv="redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=664752" data-stat="player" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool&player=1&mlb_ID=664752">Curran, Seamus</a>*</td><td data-stat="age" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">20</td><td data-stat="level_summary" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">L-A,SS</td><td data-stat="batting_avg" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.243</td><td data-stat="onbase_perc" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.314</td><td data-stat="slugging_perc" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.427</td><td data-stat="pos_summary" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">1B-65, DH-25</td></tr>
<tr data-row="12"><td data-append-csv="redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=641555" data-stat="player" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool&player=1&mlb_ID=641555">Escarra, J.C.</a>*</td><td data-stat="age" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">23</td><td data-stat="level_summary" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">SS,H-A</td><td data-stat="batting_avg" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.308</td><td data-stat="onbase_perc" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.399</td><td data-stat="slugging_perc" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.483</td><td data-stat="pos_summary" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">1B-44, DH-4</td></tr>
<tr data-row="13"><td data-append-csv="redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=645287" data-stat="player" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool&player=1&mlb_ID=645287">Z</a>oellner, Jack*</td><td data-stat="age" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">23</td><td data-stat="level_summary" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">ROK</td><td data-stat="batting_avg" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.236</td><td data-stat="onbase_perc" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.364</td><td data-stat="slugging_perc" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.422</td><td data-stat="pos_summary" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">1B-41, DH-6</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="sr_share" id="credit_FirstBaseDesignatedHitterorPinchHitter" style="font-size: 0.83em;">
Provided by <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/sharing.html?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool">Baseball-Reference.com</a>: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BAL/baltimore-orioles-organization-batting.shtml?sr&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#FirstBaseDesignatedHitterorPinchHitter">View Original Table</a><br />
Generated 8/23/2018.</div>
</div>
<br />
Absent from the list above is Mark Trumbo. We have spoke at length about him here at the Depot, but the organization seems hell bent to provide Trey Mancini experience there when Davis takes a blow. We think this has been a mistake as Trumbo repeatedly shows that he needs to be in the field to hit and that he is a hard negative in a corner outfield position, but it is what it is.<br />
<br />
Mancini looks like a fringe first baseman, a fringe left fielder. Left field is doubly fringe as his athleticism continues to leave him, making his defense a lingering issue. Last year, we took a look at what could be expected of Mancini moving forward. He did not meet expectations this year which does only to decrease expectations moving forward. Those expectations were that of a fringe second division starter. Mancini does not look like a true answer to first base if Davis is ever dislodged.<br />
<br />
Once you step into the minors, the answers find themselves difficult to find. On the surface, players like Aderlin Rodriguez, Wilson Garcia, and JC Escarra have performed well, but have done so at an advanced age. Seamus Curran and Collin Woody have done well to hold their own, but have struggled with contact. The margin of error for a first basemen is fairly small, so there are certainly doubts at their outcome. A couple years younger and those performances would look different.<br />
<br />
Finally, the newest first baseman in the system is Jack Zoellner. Zoellner was a 10k senior sign in the ninth round by the Phillies a couple years ago. Zoellner was an analytics pick, someone who the Phillies developmental staff to play with. Apparently, the Phillies liked the launch angle and velocity his batted balls produced. He has yet to escape a rookie league. The Orioles now are taking on this 23 year old who has plenty of levels to move up.<br />
<br />
<i>Five Year Plan</i><br />
The five year plan for first base appears largely to be crossing your fingers and hoping there is something left for Chris Davis to do. Mancini could be a fringe solution, but not exactly a player who could overwhelmingly dispatch Chris Davis. Beyond them, nothing is clear.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Jon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-69441568216952539982018-08-29T11:51:00.000-04:002018-08-29T11:51:10.453-04:00Orioles State of Second Base: 2019-2023<span style="font-size: x-small;">Previous Columns in this Series</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/08/orioles-state-of-catching-2019-2023.html" target="_blank">Catcher</a> | <a href="http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/08/orioles-state-of-centerfield-2019-2023.html" target="_blank">Centerfield</a></span><br />
<br />
For the Orioles, second base is very similar to other positions, but not. Second base is a position where the club had mustered together a stalwart for the position for several years only to deal him away at the deadline. Somehow, when Jonathan Schoop left, the Orioles managed to acquire not only a good pitching prospect and a promising young shortstop prospect, but also Jonathan Villar. Villar, once considered a major role player in Milwaukee, frustrated that franchise. Wanting more power in their lineup, the Brewers acquired Schoop placed him at shortstop and tossed away Villar. As it stands, Villar has a bWAR of 0.8 for the Orioles and Schoop has scuttled to replacement level for the Brewers.<br />
<br />
Let it be said though that Villar is only under contract through the 2020 year, which leaves the long-term future in doubt. Villar likely will not be a part of any competitive Orioles team. So what does the franchise depth look like now?<br />
<br />
<div class="sr_share_wrap" style="overflow: auto;">
<table class="sr_share" data-cols-to-freeze="2" id="" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: 1px #aaa; font-size: 0.83em; overflow: auto;"><caption>Second Base Table</caption>
<colgroup><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th data-stat="player" scope="col" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">Name</th>
<th data-stat="age" scope="col" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">Age</th>
<th data-stat="level_summary" scope="col" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">Lev</th>
<th data-filter="1" data-name="Batting Average" data-stat="batting_avg" scope="col" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">BA</th>
<th data-filter="1" data-name="On-Base%" data-stat="onbase_perc" scope="col" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">OBP</th>
<th data-filter="1" data-name="Slugging %" data-stat="slugging_perc" scope="col" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">SLG</th>
<th data-stat="pos_summary" scope="col" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">Pos Summary</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr data-row="2"><td data-append-csv="redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=542340" data-stat="player" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><strong><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool&player=1&mlb_ID=542340">Villar, Jonathan</a></strong>#</td><td data-stat="age" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">27</td><td data-stat="level_summary" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">MAJ,AAA</td><td data-stat="batting_avg" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.274</td><td data-stat="onbase_perc" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.334</td><td data-stat="slugging_perc" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.403</td><td data-stat="pos_summary" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">2B-99, SS-3</td></tr>
<tr data-row="3"><td data-append-csv="redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=542921" data-stat="player" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><strong><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool&player=1&mlb_ID=542921">Beckham, Tim</a></strong></td><td data-stat="age" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">28</td><td data-stat="level_summary" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">MAJ,AAA,AA</td><td data-stat="batting_avg" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.213</td><td data-stat="onbase_perc" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.275</td><td data-stat="slugging_perc" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.342</td><td data-stat="pos_summary" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">3B-42, SS-39, 2B-3, DH-2</td></tr>
<tr data-row="6"><td data-append-csv="redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=591971" data-stat="player" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool&player=1&mlb_ID=591971">Valera, Breyvic</a> #</td><td data-stat="age" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">26</td><td data-stat="level_summary" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">AAA,MAJ</td><td data-stat="batting_avg" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.258</td><td data-stat="onbase_perc" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.332</td><td data-stat="slugging_perc" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.385</td><td data-stat="pos_summary" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">2B-44, SS-27, 3B-22, LF-9, CF-2, DH-2, RF-1</td></tr>
<tr data-row="7"><td data-append-csv="redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=596143" data-stat="player" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool&player=1&mlb_ID=596143">Sardinas, Luis</a>#</td><td data-stat="age" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">25</td><td data-stat="level_summary" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">AAA,MAJ</td><td data-stat="batting_avg" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.260</td><td data-stat="onbase_perc" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.296</td><td data-stat="slugging_perc" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.383</td><td data-stat="pos_summary" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">SS-36, 2B-20, 3B-8, DH-3, LF-1</td></tr>
<tr data-row="12"><td data-append-csv="redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=592859" data-stat="player" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool&player=1&mlb_ID=592859">Wilkerson, Steve</a> #</td><td data-stat="age" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">26</td><td data-stat="level_summary" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">AAA,AA,MAJ,ROK</td><td data-stat="batting_avg" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.259</td><td data-stat="onbase_perc" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.315</td><td data-stat="slugging_perc" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.431</td><td data-stat="pos_summary" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">2B-14, 3B-11, LF-4, SS-4, RF-1, 1B-1</td></tr>
<tr data-row="16"><td data-append-csv="redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=676625" data-stat="player" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool&player=1&mlb_ID=676625">Bannon, Rylan</a></td><td data-stat="age" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">22</td><td data-stat="level_summary" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">H-A,AA</td><td data-stat="batting_avg" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.273</td><td data-stat="onbase_perc" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.381</td><td data-stat="slugging_perc" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.512</td><td data-stat="pos_summary" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">3B-56, 2B-47, DH-13</td></tr>
<tr data-row="19"><td data-append-csv="redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=641945" data-stat="player" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool&player=1&mlb_ID=641945">Palmeiro, Preston</a>*</td><td data-stat="age" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">23</td><td data-stat="level_summary" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">H-A</td><td data-stat="batting_avg" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.253</td><td data-stat="onbase_perc" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.311</td><td data-stat="slugging_perc" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.405</td><td data-stat="pos_summary" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">2B-107, 1B-20, DH-3</td></tr>
<tr data-row="22"><td data-append-csv="redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=669200" data-stat="player" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool&player=1&mlb_ID=669200">McCoy, Mason</a></td><td data-stat="age" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">23</td><td data-stat="level_summary" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">L-A</td><td data-stat="batting_avg" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.265</td><td data-stat="onbase_perc" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.329</td><td data-stat="slugging_perc" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.375</td><td data-stat="pos_summary" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">SS-88, 2B-28, DH-1</td></tr>
<tr data-row="29"><td data-append-csv="redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=666145" data-stat="player" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool&player=1&mlb_ID=666145">Torres, Alexis</a></td><td data-stat="age" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">20</td><td data-stat="level_summary" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">SS,L-A,H-A</td><td data-stat="batting_avg" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.251</td><td data-stat="onbase_perc" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.326</td><td data-stat="slugging_perc" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.359</td><td data-stat="pos_summary" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">2B-51, DH-4, SS-1</td></tr>
<tr data-row="30"><td data-append-csv="redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=647228" data-stat="player" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool&player=1&mlb_ID=647228">Hall, Adam</a></td><td data-stat="age" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">19</td><td data-stat="level_summary" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">SS</td><td data-stat="batting_avg" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.304</td><td data-stat="onbase_perc" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.382</td><td data-stat="slugging_perc" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.392</td><td data-stat="pos_summary" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">SS-54, 2B-4</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="sr_share" id="credit_Infielder2BSS3B" style="font-size: 0.83em;">
Provided by <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/sharing.html?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool">Baseball-Reference.com</a>: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BAL/baltimore-orioles-organization-batting.shtml?sr&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#Infielder2BSS3B">View Original Table</a><br />
Generated 8/29/2018.</div>
</div>
<br />
In the near term, Jonathan Villar is the solution. He will likely be manning second during some dire days in Baltimore. Beneath him in the immediate are all fringe players. Tim Beckham became the guy the Rays said he was. Valera and Sardinas are short term fill in kind of players. Steve Wilkerson might be able to give you some Todd Walker style action where he may be a late bloomer, but probably fills more of a corner infield and second base role.<br />
<br />
Once you go beyond the MLB and AAA squads, you begin to see some low ceiling though interesting prospects. Rylan Bannon is a fairly interesting C level prospect. He is sort of coming in from a Ryan Flaherty direction. A player who carries some interesting offensive skills, but whose skillset may not be all that playable at the plate once he reaches the Majors. Instead, he seems to be making great strides with his play at second base and third base. Some scouts suggest he probably should be given a whirl at shortstop to see if he footwork and positioning holds up there. However, the optimistic outcome is that he rises to be a solid offensive contributor at second or third.<br />
<br />
It will not be an easy path for Bannon. Undersized, he is not the kind of physical specimen that makes baseball organizations want to give him an abundance of opportunity. However, if he performs at each level, those opportunities will come. At the moment, the Orioles decided to challenge him once he came over to Baltimore by elevating him to from HiA ball to AA Bowie. That has not gone well. However, that is quite a jump in competition and Bannon is a tad young for the circuit.<br />
<br />
Beyond Bannon, there are a couple players who do not seem exciting, but may grow into consideration. Preston Palmiero is seeing time this year at second base and he genuinely has the ability to provide a passable level of play there if his bat comes forward. While Palmiero has maintain a league average level of play as he moves up through the levels, the increase in power shown last summer did not take a step forward this year. There is some hope he can tap further into his swing to see another increase, but that is not a foregone conclusion.<br />
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However, the real players to watch are Mason McCoy and Adam Hall. McCoy is a bit old for Delmarva, but he showed great feel for second base. He also held his own at the plate, but, again, he is two years older than league average. The defensive angle is there, so you can envision a utility role. If his bat can make each step up, he might even be able to eek out a couple years as a second division starter. But, again, it is a long haul.<br />
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Adam Hall is a bit more interesting to watch. He hails from Canada and is a bit raw. He shows plus speed and an understanding of how to use it on the basepaths. Right now, he is logging time at shortstop, but his arm will likely push him over to second base. He exhibits good contact, can work a walk, and has a swing where doubles in the gap should start appearing more common.<br />
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<i>Five Year Planning</i><br />
The current solution is obvious in Villar and there will likely be little reason to extend him. Second basemen tend to get beaten up a bit and decline rapidly in their early thirties, which puts Villar in a bad position to be in place for the Orioles next run. Beyond him, you hope that someone like Bannon or Hall can emerge and take over. That said, it is far from probable to expect either to be able to perform at the level as neither are prospects that have garnered much attention. Regardless, there is much more optimism here than, say, <a href="http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/08/orioles-state-of-catching-2019-2023.html" target="_blank">catcher</a>.Jon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.com0