The Orioles Did What They Had To

The Major League Baseball non-waiver trade deadline was nearly a week ago, but many of us are just recovering from what took place. The Orioles are almost unrecognizable compared to the beginning of July. Gone are established stars Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, and Zach Britton. Sent away with them were familiar faces Kevin Gausman, Darren O'Day and Brad Brach. Things are going to be different in Birdland. It's sad. It hurts a little. And it had to be done.

This organization had stagnated. They did well to get a bunch of really talented players all at the same time. They rode many of those players to three playoff berths in five years. As a guy who grew up thinking of the Orioles as perennial also-rans, to see them even playing meaningful baseball deep into September was a dream come true. But as with all things, time catches up. Players that were in their prime start to regress. Young studs become expensive veterans. And eventually all of the trading away of prospects to paper over weaknesses eats away at a team's depth.

The O's were overdue for an overhaul. Did they get tremendous value for every player traded away in July? It depends how highly you regarded some of the up-and-comers they got in return. Even then, you are dealing with potential versus proven ability.

It is impossible to judge this team's success at the deadline right away. It will take two or three years before a "winner" of each swap can be determined. At the very least, the O's have picked a direction and they have clearly stated goals. Now, the hard work begins: Setting the wheels in motion and turning one of the worst teams in baseball into a contender once again.

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Let's Get This Orioles Rebuild Started!

Dan Duquette and the Orioles brass are saying all of the right things. They are even doing the right things, so far. Expiring contracts that can be moved, have been. The club is collecting international signing money, and they have been credibly connected, in some way shape or form, to some of the top Latin players available. They even seem to be making an effort at being proactive by taking calls on the players that are under control beyond 2018. It's really something.

But the rebuild has not fully taken effect until those thoughts and words become tangible actions.

It's nice to be "interested" in a player like Victor Victor Mesa. It would be much better if he were signed to an Orioles contract. It's encouraging to know they are open to trading Kevin Gausman, Jonathan Schoop and Mychal Givens. It would be glorious to see them negotiate a massive return of prospects for that trio that sets the team up for future success.

Things have been going well so far, but this has not be a flawless trade window. Maybe the deals won't there for the taking by July 31. That's fine. It's reasonable to extend the benefit of the doubt through the winter, but if the Spring Training 2019 roster looks a lot like the roster on the final day of the 2018 season, we have a huge problem on our hands.

*This episode of the podcast was recorded on Monday, July 30, prior to the 2018 non-waiver trade deadline.*

You can subscribe or listen to the podcast on iTunes/Apple Podcasts, Google Play, Stitcher, Podbean, TuneIn and a few other places as well. If you are into social media, we can be found on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube. Wherever you go, give us a five-star review or a "Like". It helps us out a ton! Thanks for the support!

The Orioles Should Trade Gausman To The Rockies

It’s nearly the trade deadline, so of course there are rumors about the Rockies interest in trading for Kevin Gausman. The Rockies have had an interest for Kevin Gausman for a long time, at one point even requesting him for a trade for De La Rosa. However, at this point, there may be a real chance for a deal.  It’s safe to say that Gausman has failed to have the breakout season that Orioles fans were hoping to get from him, and the Orioles only control his rights for two more years. The Orioles need to ask themselves whether it makes sense to offer him an extension. If they don’t, his value is only going to decrease as time goes on. What would a potential trade to the Rockies look like?

Jon has suggested that Gausman is worth $40-50 million, almost as much as Machado was worth. If one thinks that Gausman will continue performing like a 3-4 starter then this valuation makes reasonable sense. It would make sense to value him at 5-6 WAR over his remaining 2+ years as an Orioles and presume he’ll cost roughly $20M. If you value a win at $10M, then we’re talking $30-40M but teams usually pay a premium for talent at the trade deadline. In addition, teams probably remember Jake Arrieta and may be willing to pay a slight premium to see if they can fix another Orioles pitcher with great talent who couldn’t figure it out in Baltimore.

The Rockies rotation has been atrocious. Kyle Freeland and Tyler Anderson have been solid for the Rockies, but have FIPs in the low 4 range. Jon Gray has had an excellent 3.05 FIP but also has a 5.44 ERA and was sent to the minors earlier this year. Their other starters have struggled. The Rockies could use at least two starting pitchers if they want to challenge for the playoffs and there aren’t very many available avenues for them to get it.

The Orioles could try to get prospects for Gausman. The Orioles wouldn’t be able to get the Rockies top prospect, but could reasonably hope to get one of their top prospects. It wouldn’t be terrible to build a deal around Lambert or Welker. But in this case, it makes sense for the Orioles to consider a challenge trade.

That’s why the Orioles should ask for Jon Gray. Jon Gray had what was thought to be a breakout 2017, but has had a tough 2018 season with an excellent FIP but a terrible ERA. If you believe the advanced statistics, then Jon Gray is probably an ace. If you believe your lying eyes, then he’s legitimately struggling.

According to TruMedia, Jon Gray boasts a tough fastball, curveball and slider repertoire that makes him tough against opposing batters and allows him to pick up strikeouts. The problem is that he has a bad case of Porcello-itis. Opposing batters have a .306 wOBA against him when the bases are empty, but a .386 wOBA when a runner is on base. It appears that opposing batters are more aggressive with men on base, and put more balls into play. Betrayed by a poor defense, opposing batters have an OPS of over 1 and a BABIP over .370 when they put the ball into play against him, regardless of whether men are on base or not. Like most pitchers, Gray would benefit from leaving Colorado.

It’s rumored that the Rockies are beginning to lose patience with him and are discussing moving him to the bullpen. If this is true, then it’s very reasonable that they’d be willing to part with Gray to get Gausman. The problem is that Gray is one of those players that’s hard to value. As a bullpen piece, he’s probably worth $10-$20M and the Os could ask for a C+ prospect in addition. If Gray is seen as a starter, then he could well be worth considerably more than Gausman. Like Gausman, Gray is another pitcher that hasn’t met his potential. Unlike Gausman, he’s shown more signs of being able to turn the corner. With a strong 2019, the Orioles could probably flip Gray to another team in return for elite talent or alternatively he’d be an interesting piece to offer an extension.

A Gausman for Gray trade would make sense in and of itself, but the teams could possibly expand a potential trade. The Rockies haven’t gotten much production from first base. Ian Desmond has been a failure on the Rockies. He has a decent bat for a middle infielder or center fielder, but the Rockies already have players blocking him at these positions. Instead, he plays first base, and he simply doesn’t have a good enough bat to be successful there. It turns out that signing a middle infielder/center fielder to play first base for an exorbitant amount of money isn’t a good strategy. Nor have the Rockies had much success with their top former prospect Ryan McMahon. McMahon has struggled in the majors, combining an inability to hit for power or average with a tendency of striking out frequently. With 3 yrs remaining on his deal after this one at $40M, plus another $9M on the books for the remainder of 2018, the Rockies should have interest in trading him elsewhere.

Yet, Ian Desmond was a decent center fielder for the Rangers in 2016, and his Statcast sprint speed of 27.8 ft/s suggests he is fast enough to play second base or center field. He’s a player that’s more valuable to another team than he is to the Rockies. And he isn’t so valuable that the Rockies would have much leverage in a trade. I mean, he has more value to another team than the Rockies, but with such a large contract he still likely has negative value. The Rockies would almost certainly have to give back another $30 million in value in order to include him in the trade.

On the other hand, Trumbo has proven to be a terrible DH, but has had a decent offensive 2018 season when playing either 1B or RF with a line of .309/.347/.559. Put him full time at 1B in Colorado, and they should have a pretty good bat. Trumbo is definitely a player that could benefit from a change of scenery.  When taking his contract into account, his value should probably be somewhere in the 0 to -$5M range.

Adding Trumbo and Desmond to the deal would mean that the Rockies would have to part with one of their better prospects. It’s questionable whether they would. A pitcher like Lambert or a hitter like Wilker would interest the Orioles, but it depends on how the Rockies view him. If they think of him as a top fifty prospect, as does Keith Law, then he’s not to be considered. On the other hand, if he’s a fringe top hundred prospect as ranked per MLB pipeline then perhaps he could be included. It also depends on how much value Gray still has. The thing is that the Rockies have a number of interesting 2B/SS/3B and pitching prospects and could afford to trade two or three in a deal. If the Orioles could get a package of Gray, Lambert, Hampson and Desmond in return for Gausman and Trumbo, then that would be a deal they'd have to take. 

If the Orioles do decide it’s time to trade Gausman, then the Rockies would definitely have some interesting pieces to trade in return. 

Moving on From Manny Machado

It happened. It took a long time, but the Orioles finally traded Manny Machado. Most people seem to agree that the return from the Los Angeles Dodgers was fair. Maybe it was, maybe it wasn't. The "winner" of the deal won't be revealed for a few years, perhaps well after Machado has left Hollywood for a big contract elsewhere.

For the Orioles, the future is what's most important. But the success of that future depends greatly upon what the front office decides to do in the present. Zach Britton is expected to move soon. Brad Brach as well, and maybe even Adam Jones. There is a lot of work to do and little time to get it done.

On top of those expiring contracts, it's time for the Birds brass to think long and hard about the players that are under contract for 2019 and beyond. Years of control are worth a pretty penny on the trade market. Should they stay or should they go? We discuss on this week's episode of The Warehouse Podcast.

Plus, we break down the Machado trade, complain about who will be on the souvenir sodas next year and reminisce on some of the best parts of the Manny era in Baltimore.

You can subscribe or listen to the podcast on iTunes/Apple Podcasts, Google Play, Stitcher, Podbean, TuneIn and a few other places as well. If you are into social media, we can be found on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube. Wherever you go, give us a five-star review or a "Like". It helps us out a ton! Thanks for the support!

The Manny Machado Sadness Extravaganza

Well, here we are. Based on all of the different reports flying around the Web, it sure sounds like Manny Machado has played his final game for the Baltimore Orioles. The latest news indicates that Philadelphia is the likely landing spot as the Phillies have upped their offer to include their number two overall prospect, and one of the top 100 youngsters in the game, 21-year-old pitcher Adonis Medina.

Nothing is final, but the finish line is rapidly approaching. Now what? Should we be happy? Are we relieved? Or is this all just so, so terrible? Perhaps it is a cop-out to say that it is a mix of everything, but that is the most honest answer.

A full reaction to Machado's exit won't be possible until after the trade is completed. That is when the analysis of who the Orioles have acquired can truly begin. Even then, we won't know who "won" the deal until several years down the road.

For now, let's enjoy watching Machado pull on the Orioles uniform one last time at tonight's All-Star Game and see where all the chips fall. Unfortunately, we don't have any other options.

You can subscribe or listen to the podcast on iTunes/Apple Podcasts, Google Play, Stitcher, Podbean, TuneIn and a few other places as well. If you are into social media, we can be found on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube. Wherever you go, give us a five-star review or a "Like". It helps us out a ton! Thanks for the support!

Everybody Loves Manny

It's going to happen. Manny Machado will not be an Oriole by the time August 1 rolls around. We have avoided it for as long as possible, but here we are. The O's are bad, and it makes no sense to hold onto one of the most talented players in baseball with a contract that will be expiring at the end of the season.

I'm not crying! You're crying!

If you have been paying attention, you know that the rumors right now are as follows:

1. Seven teams have made offers to the Orioles.
2. All of the offers are said to be similar in value.
3. The Dodgers and Brewers seem to be the most serious, although that could change.
4. The Yankees have a stocked farm system and have re-engaged in trade talks about Machado.

Please, Orioles, do not screw this up. It's going to hurt no matter what. It's not fun to see your best player walk out the door. But they need to make this one count. It is not going to be a huge return as it would have been a year or two ago. But the front office should be able to nab a decent prospect or two during this process.

Do we really "want" Manny to be a Yankee? Of course not. But if they offer the best package, the Orioles shouldn't turn away just because of a perceived rivalry. Be selfish and get the highest return on Machado.

We get into all of that on this week's episode of the podcast in addition to some All-Star Game and Home Run Derby talk, Colby Rasmus leaving, Drake's new music, and Adam Jones's clever plan to help Baltimore win in the future.

You can subscribe or listen to the podcast on iTunes/Apple Podcasts, Google Play, Stitcher, Podbean, TuneIn and a few other places as well. If you are into social media, we can be found on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube. Wherever you go, give us a five-star review or a "Like". It helps us out a ton! Thanks for the support!

How The Orioles Should Approach Trade Season

Somehow, the Orioles are 24-61. They clearly have trades to make, and there should be a lot of them. The non-waiver trade deadline is coming up at the end of July, and those in charge (in whatever order) should be doing everything possible to improve the future prospects of the club.

Here are things they should do before the deadline:

1. Trade expiring players. That includes Manny Machado, Zach Britton, Adam Jones, Brad Brach, and Danny Valencia. This step is really the bare minimum. For all of these players, there is at least a tiny bit of value. As a platoon bat with a questionable glove, Valencia probably has the least value. That also depends how Britton performs in his next handful of starts. Perhaps the Orioles are focusing on a Machado trade, and that'll be the first domino to fall. Regardless, holding on to any of these players through the end of the year would be rather pointless. Get the best possible return and move on.

2. Be open to trading anyone. Look at the Orioles roster. Who would you consider untouchable in a trade? Dylan Bundy? Kevin Gausman? Trey Mancini? Chance Sisco? Tanner Scott or Miguel Castro? The options are limited. Sisco, Scott, and Castro are all 23, so it's easy to sell them as part of a rebuilding club. Perhaps Mancini is, too, since he's 26 and under team control through 2022 (though the Orioles need to get him away from the outfield).

However, Bundy and Gausman are where things start to get interesting. Jonathan Schoop was much more interesting before this season started. Of the trade chips in the first step, Machado is the only real significant player to deal. Both of these things are true: The Orioles need more decent, young-ish starters like Bundy and Gausman, but they've limited the ways in which to attract them. That won't be by spending big internationally. And it won't be by spending for an ace in free agency (which isn't the worst plan). But that means the only two realistic ways are to select one in the MLB draft, or to trade for one. While the O's have some intriguing talent in the low levels of the minors, there isn't anyone who seems to have ace potential. Making a bunch of Rule 5 draft picks every year isn't going to change that.

Simply put: The Orioles need more high-end prospects. In the short term, it won't help to get rid of Gausman or Bundy, or both. But in the short term, the Orioles are also going to be bad. Plus, Gausman is scheduled to be a free agent in 2021, and Bundy is about to get more expensive as he enters the first of his three arbitration seasons. That doesn't mean the Orioles can't afford them, of course, but it's still a part of the larger picture.

Keeping those two guys around wouldn't be the worst idea, but that would also limit the Orioles' ability to maximize the trade value of its roster and embark on a full rebuilding effort.

3. Get rid of the 1B/DH glut. For now, Chris Davis isn't going anywhere. The Orioles aren't going to remove him from the roster while he has four more seasons on his contract after this one. And to be fair, almost no other team would do that, either. That means Davis will likely be this team's main option at first base through next season. But no matter what, the Orioles need to do whatever is possible to trade Mark Trumbo and give Mancini the chance to get regular work at DH and split time at first base.

Trumbo has one more year left on his contract after 2018, for $13.5 million (with some of it deferred). He also has a limited no-trade clause and can block a deal to seven clubs each season. It won't be easy to move him, but thankfully he is sporting a 119 wRC+ at the moment and is continuing his trend of hitting much better when he's not DHing. Some team could use him at first base, and it's possible he'd be a shrewd addition. The O's would almost certainly have to include some money in a deal, which they should. Maybe some of the cost savings from Colby Rasmus walking away could be used towards that.

There's no getting rid of Davis, but moving Trumbo (and Valencia) would help make room on the roster for Cedric Mullins (131 wRC+ in Norfolk) and DJ Stewart (124 wRC+ in Norfolk), who could be promoted to Baltimore soon. If Jones is dealt, Mullins should be the regular center fielder, and Stewart could see work in one of the corner outfield spots.

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The Orioles' farm system does seem to be improving, but it needs more top-level talent. It's unlikely they can get that by trading Machado and just hoping everything else works out. The Orioles should be willing to put nearly everyone on the table and get serious about making things better for the future.