Has The Orioles' Rule 5 Draft Fixation Helped?

The Orioles have been rightfully scolded for their Rule 5 strategy in 2018. It never made sense to begin the season with three Rule 5 players on the major league roster in a must-win season. Still, it is possible to add impactful players through the Rule 5 draft, even though the difficulty has increased as front offices have gotten smarter and done a better job evaluating their players and protecting the right ones.

Before Dan Duquette joined the organization, the Orioles did take players in the Rule 5 draft, but not every year. Some of their notable, relatively recent draft picks before Duquette include Jay Gibbons (2000), Jose Bautista (2003), and Alfredo Simon (2006).

With Duquette in the fold, the Orioles have drafted at least one Rule 5 player in the major league phase every season:

• Ryan Flaherty from the Cubs in 2011.
• T.J. McFarland from the Indians in 2012.
• Michael Almanzar from the Red Sox in 2013.
• Logan Verrett from the Mets in 2014. Also purchased Jason Garcia from the Astros.
• Joey Rickard from the Rays in 2015.
• Aneury Tavarez from the Red Sox in 2016. Also drafted Anthony Santander from the Indians. 
• Nestor Cortes Jr. and Jose Mesa Jr. from the Yankees; Pedro Araujo from the Cubs in 2017.

With five selections in the last two years, the O's have been more bold lately. But out of all the players above, the Orioles kept Flaherty, McFarland, Garcia, Rickard, Santander, and Araujo (so far). Almanzar, Verrett, Tavarez, Cortes, and Mesa were all eventually returned, though the O's were able to trade for Almanzar to keep him in the organization.

In their time with the Orioles up to this point, Flaherty (1.5), McFarland (0.5), Garcia (-0.2), Rickard (-0.1), Santander (-0.4), Araujo (0.1), and Cortes (-0.3) have combined for a collective fWAR of 1.1. One win in seven-plus years! Flaherty is far ahead of the field, though the O's are still hoping to play the long game with Santander and Araujo. (It's also worth noting that Verrett joined the O's in 2017 and briefly posted a -0.2 fWAR.)

The Rule 5 draft makes sense for some teams, in theory. It's a way to add an interesting player or two to a team's roster in order to hopefully keep them around for future years. And it's hard to be too critical of the O's for trying to add some talent to both their roster/farm system since they're always near the bottom in international spending. It's another avenue to explore. Plus, many of these players are the 25th man on the roster or close to it, so the expectations are low.

Still, it's a delicate balance because a team like the Orioles that has been a playoff contender in nearly every year under Buck Showalter usually tries to keep one of these players around while also trying to win. In addition, Rule 5 players limit roster flexibility since they cannot be optioned. Winning is tough enough; it's an extra challenge to do so while keeping someone around who maybe doesn't belong in the majors.

If you want to label the Rule 5 obsession a failure, that's not a stretch. But what matters is it hasn't helped much. The Orioles have really only added one or two minor contributors in Flaherty and (maybe) McFarland. Perhaps Santander and Araujo change things and make everything look better. In Santander's case, it's interesting that the Pirates are trying what the Orioles did with him: acquiring an injured Rule 5 player (in this case, Nick Burdi) and seeing how things progress to hopefully keep him around.

In the future, perhaps the Orioles will spend more internationally and rely less on the Rule 5 draft. For now, that's only wishful thinking.

Photo via Keith Allison. Stats via FanGraphs.

Expanded Roster: JO-EY, JO-EY And The Rule 5 Draft

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JO-EY JO-EY: Joey Rickard and the Rule 5 Draft
By Joe Wantz

photo by Keith Allison

The Orioles love the Rule 5 draft. They love the Rule 5 draft like Romeo loved Juliet. They love the Rule 5 draft like Baltimoreans love crab cakes. They love the Rule 5 draft like…ok, you get the idea. The Orioles have selected a player in every Rule 5 draft since 2006, though not all of those have ended up making the team. That’s eleven straight drafts. The next longest streak? The Phillies, with selections in four straight.

Clearly, the Orioles see value in the Rule 5 draft that most teams do not, and the makeup of the team is reflective of that viewpoint. They have carried a Rule 5 player on the Major League roster each year since 2012 and currently have three Rule 5 picks on the 25 man: Ryan Flaherty, TJ McFarland, and Ted Williams…er, Joey Rickard. The man, the myth, the leadoff hitter has had a phenomenal start to his career as an Oriole, providing good defense, good contact skills, an outstanding eye at the plate, and even a little bit of power. It started in Spring Training, with Rickard slashing a phenomenal .397/.472/.571 with a home run and five stolen bases. He was good enough not only to make the team out of camp but to start in left field on Opening Day. Since then, he hasn’t looked back, starting each of the team’s first 7 games and hitting .370/.367/.556 in the season’s first week.

This is, to say the least, a surprising turn of events. Less that the Orioles kept a Rule 5 player (which is right up there with the sun rising in terms of a shocker) and more that he has looked like anything but. After a somewhat lackluster start to his minor league career, Rickard broke out in 2015 as a member of the Tampa Bay organization, putting up a .360/.437/.472 debut at AAA Durham in 2015. This makes it all the more notable that Rickard was exposed to the Rule 5 draft and made it to the 8th overall pick. That may be due to his overall scouting report, which portrayed Rickard as a good fourth outfielder as opposed to a regular contributor.

He was, however, the 98th ranked prospect in Fangraphs’ KATOH projection system published in late 2015 and had previously been ranked as a top 10 prospect for the Rays. KATOH takes a novel approach to prospect evaluation, focusing not on projectability and scouting reports but solely on minor league statistics. As a result, KATOH differs fairly significantly from more traditional prospect rankings and does not take into account player tools. This is certainly not meant to be a definitive model of player evaluation (which the creator Chris Mitchell readily admits), but it does provide a way to look at players who might otherwise be undervalued by traditional scouting.

This projection fits in with the Orioles’ initial interest in Rickard. Steve Melewski of MASN reported this week that it was not the Orioles’ scouting department that took an interest in him but rather the analytics staff. This put him on GM Dan Duquette’s radar screen, and that interest was confirmed by Felipe Alou Jr., who coached Rickard’s Dominican Winter League team and runs the O’s Dominican academy. This dovetailing of analytics and scouting has, at least so far, made the Orioles look like a bunch of geniuses.

Of course, Rickard’s current production is very unlikely to continue. He is almost certainly not going to be an All Star-type performer, but there is reason to believe that his skill set can play at the Major League level. KATOH projected Rickard to put up 3.8 WAR through his age 28 season, which would be 2019. At this rate, he might eclipse that mark this season, but let’s optimistically say the number is somewhere around 2.5 WAR per year. This would put him at +10 WAR for his career. That would be a solid number for most players but extraordinary for a Rule 5 pick. The table below shows the top 12 performers by career WAR that have been selected and kept by a new team in the Rule 5 draft since 2006.

Name	Year	Original Team	New Team	Career WAR
Josh Hamilton	2006	Tampa Bay	Cubs	27.8
R.A. Dickey	2007	Minnesota	Seattle	16.3
Joakim Soria	2006	San Diego	Kansas City	9.7
Everth Cabrera	2008	Colorado	San Diego	4.2
Odubel Herrera	2014	Texas	Philadelphia	3.9
Hector Rondon	2012	Cleveland	Cubs	3.1
Jared Burton	2006	Oakland	Cincinnati	2.8
Josh Fields	2012	Boston	Houston	2.4
Mark Canha	2014	Miami	Oakland	1.4
Ryan Flaherty	2011	Cubs	Baltimore	1.4
Delino DeShields, Jr.	2014	Houston	Texas	1.2
TJ McFarland	2012	Cleveland	Baltimore	0.9

Note: The new team column doesn’t necessarily show the team the player ended up on, just the one that drafted them in the Rule 5. Hamilton, for example, was drafted by the Cubs and subsequently traded to the Reds.

We can see a few things here. First, the Orioles are nicely represented (I’m positive they signed Cabrera because he was once a Rule 5 guy but can’t prove it). Second, successful Rule 5 picks are hard to come by. Out of all the Rule 5 picks since 2006, only eleven have a career WAR of over 1. Rickard himself, at 0.3, is already in the top 15 after one week! The most notable names on the list are obviously the first three, with Josh Hamilton and R.A. Dickey being the obvious outliers. Those guys won an MVP and Cy Young award, respectively, and were well above average performers for several seasons. Soria has been, at times, a dominant reliever and has overcome some injury issues to settle into being a pretty good one.

A final interesting thing about this list is the fact that three of the top performers by WAR were drafted in the 2014 Rule 5: Odubel Herrera, Mark Canha, and Delino DeShields Jr. While none of those guys profile as future stars, they are useful players that have some upside for their teams. Indeed, with so much good young talent in the big leagues, perhaps this is a golden age in Rule 5 history.

Ultimately, it seems likely that Rickard will settle into that category. It is not particularly difficult to imagine him being a starting outfielder and giving the Orioles solid production. The 2.5 WAR per year would be a pretty aggressive projection to be sure, but even if he doesn’t hit for power or post a great batting average he can provide value with his defense and base running abilities. He has already shown those skills in his short time in Baltimore and figures to have a long leash this season. Hyun-Soo Kim and Nolan Reimold don’t seem like particularly big playing time threats at this point and it seems likely that Rickard will stay in the lineup when Adam Jones returns from injury. He may never reach the heights of someone like Josh Hamilton, but Rickard could very well end up being one of the best Rule 5 players of the past decade. We all might want to get used to chanting JO-EY JO-EY at the yard.

Taking A Look At Joey Rickard

The Orioles signed Joey Rickard in the 2016 Rule V Draft. After a 2014 in AA, Rickard had a strong 2015 in the minors with an overall .321/.427/.447 line and a .360/.437/.472 line in AAA fueled primarily by an unsustainable high .457 BABIP. Rickard has excellent plate discipline as he had a walk rate above 10% in the minors from 2013 to 2015 with a strikeout rate in the 15-20% range but minimal power with just 3 HRs in the past two seasons. Steamer projects him to have a .246/.315/.340 line in the majors this year with a respectable 9.6% BB rate and a 19.2% K rate. Joey Rickard has played at all three outfield positions in the minors but primarily is used at the corners and was named the Rays Baserunner of the Year.

Dan Duquette described Rickard (reported by Steve Melewski) as:

He has good on-base capability, good speed. Excellent contact hitter, can steal a base. And he's a good defensive player, and he played center field and left. We think he gives us some depth. He just looks like he learned how to play. Looks like a good solid, overall ballplayer. Good discipline in the strike zone and we look forward to taking a look at him in the spring.

Jon Shepherd was less than impressed with this signing as he feels that Rickard is a professional 5th outfielder and doesn’t fill any needs. He also stated that Rickard is a solid 40/45 with the bat with decent speed but isn’t considered much of a prospect. He seems to be a player with a decent chance to stick but with minimal upside and ceiling. My impression is that he seems to be slightly less regarded than Flaherty when the Orioles drafted him.

Rickard hasn’t been ranked in the top 100 in any overall prospect list based on scouting that I’m familiar with nor considered one of the Rays top 30 prospects by MLB Pipeline. But he was ranked 98th in KATOH’s Top 100 Prospects list. This metric likely overrates Rickard because it only considers one year of stats meaning that it disregards his poor 2014. Indeed, his 2015 stats project that he’ll be worth 3.8 fWAR through 28 but his 2014 statistics project that he’ll be worth 0 fWAR through 28.

Steve Melewski recently had a discussion with Dan Duquette about KATOH where Dan noted that he saw the list and that it reflects well on the Orioles’ farm system and scouting staff. Duquette argued that “these rankings speak for themselves. Five prospects in the top 71 shows that Orioles scouts are doing a good job.”

It seems possible that KATOH’s projection that Rickard would be a top player may have been a contributing factor to the Orioles selecting him. Teams typically only use their own internal analysis to actually grade players but it is known that they are familiar with outside sources such as Baseball America. It is reasonably clear that Dan Duquette was familiar with KATOHs rankings and if nothing else could give them an impetus to look at him closer especially if they were already interested.

At the moment, the Orioles are lacking starting caliber outfielders. Rickard probably isn’t good enough to be an optimal starter. Problem is that the Orioles’ current outfielders aren't particularly good either so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him in left field with Reimold in right field. In the future, if he can play center field then he’s a reasonable candidate for the fourth outfielder spot. That’s probably as high as his ceiling goes, but then again he only cost 50k. Whatever he provides is a bonus.

Working Our Way Through The 2015 Rule 5 Fodder: Introduction And Infield

If you are searching for a comprehensive Rule 5 series, this is not it.  I will direct you over to Baseball America who does a decent job, but certainly makes certain conclusions that I disagree with.  For instance, it is noted that available Astro catcher Roberto Pena could improve upon his pitch presentation.  Based on the analysis I have seen, he actually rates as one of the best pitch framers in the minors.  So, yeah, don't take their word as gospel.  Likewise, think critically with my words as well.

Anyway, this series will look at areas where the Orioles might have some interest in checking out a player in Spring Training.  This means my focus will be one backup infielders and fourth outfielders.  Given the current trio of catchers on the 40 man roster, I see little need for the club to dabble behind the plate.  With the need to keep Dylan Bundy in the pen, I doubt pitchers are targeted.  The club would be interested in a starting pitcher, but those simply do not exist in the Rule 5.  This post will look at the five available infield prospects that I find most interesting.

Matt Skole, 1B
Washington Nationals

Year	Age	Tm	Lev	PA	2B	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
2011	21	Auburn	A-	319	23	5	42	52	.290	.382	.438
2012	22	Hagerstown	A	448	18	27	94	116	.286	.438	.574
2012	22	Potomac	A+	76	10	0	5	17	.314	.355	.486
2013	23	Harrisburg	AA	7	1	0	2	2	.200	.429	.400
2014	24	Harrisburg	AA	544	29	14	78	127	.241	.352	.399
2015	25	Harrisburg	AA	365	14	12	44	92	.232	.332	.398
2015	25	Syracuse	AAA	182	9	8	28	35	.238	.357	.457
Minors (5 seasons)			Minors	1941	104	66	293	441	.260	.374	.452

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/25/2015.

The Orioles need a first baseman and the Nationals' left hander could be a useful challenger for that role even if the club resigns the slightly versatile Chris Davis.  Skole started out as a third baseman, but a lack of range worked against him and the presence of Ryan Zimmerman and Anthony Rendon extinguished what meager light there was.

A high average and big power hitter in low minors, Skole has not seen as much success with the upper minors which was accompanied by a blown out knee in 2013.  Skole still shows big time power, but his profile is emerging as a strong platoon side bat with contact issues.  We could call him a poor man's Pedro Alvarez.

In my opinion, Skole is one of the more obvious selections, but whose ability to stay in the Majors in 2016 is a bit doubtful.  Skole was one of the players I identified in my "hidden diamonds" college features back in the day, which have been shown to identify players who have outperformed where they were drafted.  I still have hope in him.  Another 1B that was also identified by that process was Christian Walker.

Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B
Kansas City Royals

Year	Age	Lev	PA	2B	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
2007	17	Rk	197	5	1	12	68	.174	.244	.242
2008	18	Rk	197	14	3	11	48	.307	.360	.458
2010	20	A	372	20	9	20	123	.220	.266	.373
2011	21	A--A	354	18	6	22	75	.249	.305	.366
2012	22	A-	283	20	9	14	82	.282	.325	.471
2013	23	A	108	4	4	8	32	.208	.287	.396
2015	25	AA-AAA	378	28	17	12	59	.358	.384	.589
Minors (8 seasons)		Minors	2324	130	57	108	606	.266	.308	.419
Foreign (6 seasons)		Foreign	357	14	16	18	96	.290	.339	.483
Other (2 seasons)		Other	675	43	36	33	116	.331	.370	.575

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/25/2015.

Balbino Fuenmayor is interesting for several reasons.  He was one of the major international signings by the Blue Jays in 2006.  His batting practice power looked immense, but never quite translated into games along with a poor walk rate and little contact.  After a poor stint in single A, the Blue Jays cut him loose.  Backed up by decent winter league numbers and an explosive 675 PA in Indy ball, Balbino was given a second chance with the Royals last year.  He responded by excelling in AA and AAA before his season ended with a torn ACL.

As such, the right hander shows promise, but full of concerns.  His ACL injury may make it difficult to keep him on an active roster.  He will need to spend most of the season with the club and has only so much time to spend on the disabled list or on rehab assignment.  His game is so dependent on contact that there is concern that his low walk rate will make it struggle for him to be a positive contributor at the MLB level.  He might be one of the more exciting names out there, but I doubt anyone will give him much of a shot.

Alex Yarbrough, 2B
Anaheim Angels

Year	Age	Lev	PA	2B	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
2012	20	A-AA	275	13	0	10	23	.275	.307	.393
2013	21	A+	615	32	11	27	106	.313	.341	.459
2014	22	AA	592	38	5	33	124	.285	.321	.397
2015	23	AAA	545	29	3	26	136	.236	.274	.324
All Levels (4 Seasons)			2027	112	19	96	389	.279	.313	.396

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/25/2015.

Yarbrough, perhaps, looks far more interesting than he really is.  A quick skim will find him as a switch hitting second baseman with some defensive accolades, strong gap-to-gap power, and decent contact until last year.  In reality, while he has sure hands, his range is atrocious, he was unable to do anything at the plate in the high flying Pacific Coast League, and has always swung and missed even with the less advanced pitchers at each level.

That said, the previous stretches of decent contact and doubles power might intrigued some.  Poor defensive range at second base can be somewhat mitigated by utilizing defensive shifts (a practice the Angels have been loathe to incorporate).  He could be worth a closer look to certain teams who might be able to make the most of his abilities and minimize the risk of his deficiencies.

Ronny Rodriguez, 2B/3B
Cleveland Indians

Year	Age	Lev	PA	2B	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
2011	19	A	394	28	11	13	83	.246	.274	.449
2012	20	A+	483	20	19	19	88	.264	.300	.452
2013	21	AA	498	25	5	16	76	.265	.291	.376
2014	22	AA	447	25	5	25	92	.228	.270	.324
2015	23	AA	285	14	11	10	60	.286	.316	.491
Minors (5 seasons)		Minors	2107	112	51	83	399	.256	.289	.412

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/25/2015.

Rodriguez is in a similar boat defensively as Yarbrough, but is blessed with a plus plus arm that lets him competently throw across the diamond from the hot corner.  He once was a promising prospect in the Indians systems whose 2012 season has the club wondering about his ability to be a power mashing middle infielder, but two heavily depressed seasons later took a significant hit to his standing.  Last year was promising.  After missing half the season with a wrist injury, Rodriguez' third stint in AA gave a kickstart.  He showed power and decent contact while at a still reasonable age for a prospect.

With Rodriguez' ability to play third and first while being protected at second, he should be seen as valuable.  He appears to be a player similar in profile to Ryan Flaherty and can probably play shortstop in a pinch as well.  If the club wishes to save half a million, Rodriguez might be an option.

Jacob Wilson, 2B/3B
St. Louis Cardinals

Year	Age	Lev	PA	2B	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
2012	21	A-	179	7	6	13	33	.275	.341	.444
2013	22	A-A+	546	28	18	57	74	.243	.336	.424
2014	23	AA-A+	283	25	5	23	47	.302	.362	.460
2015	24	AA	141	6	7	17	25	.225	.326	.450
2015	24	AAA	342	14	11	23	68	.231	.292	.391
Minors (4 seasons)		Minors	1491	80	47	133	247	.254	.330	.428

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/25/2015.

Jacob Wilson is more of a true utility player.  He can man second, third, and left field, possessing a plus arm.  He shows power and a decent understanding of the strike zone.  Contact was an issue in the upper minors and may expose a major deficiency in his profile as he faces more advanced pitching.  He appears to have a lower ceiling than Rodriguez, but a higher floor.  That floor though is as a bench player in AAA.  However, many clubs do look at that walk rate and decent defense, finding Wilson to be an uncommonly safe player to bet on as a Rule 5 acquired role player.