Working Our Way Through the 2015 Rule 5 Fodder: Outfield

In the first part of this series, we addressed infield options that are available in the rule 5 draft.  While the Orioles have several options in Ryan Flaherty, Jimmy Paredes, Rey Navarro, and Paul Janish, it would be difficult to suggest that any of them have untapped potential that could one day elevate them to a starting role on a competitive club.  Options like Christian Walker and Trey Mancini have question marks and can be stored away in the minors for a bit longer, so it might be useful to kick the tires on a Rule 5 Hail Mary.

That said, the outfield option might appear to be a bit duller with the acquisition of L.J. Hoes.  Hoes crowds up the 40 man roster with fourth outfielder types in Paredes and Flaherty again, but also Nolan Reimold, David Lough, Dariel Alvarez, and maybe you can squint on the others.  Again though, none of these players looks particularly exceptional enough to ensure them logging innings in the outfield and having some competition in Spring Training or carrying a player during the season might well be more useful.  In this part, we will address five of the available outfielders we find most interesting.

Mitch Haniger, OF
Arizona Diamondbacks

Year	Age	Lev	PA	2B	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
2012	21	A	58	4	1	7	13	.286	.379	.429
2013	22	A+-A	543	36	11	57	92	.264	.348	.431
2014	23	AA-Rk	317	11	11	23	51	.259	.324	.422
2015	24	A+-AA	400	26	13	33	71	.310	.368	.515
AA (2 seasons)		Minors	475	20	11	38	77	.269	.336	.405

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/29/2015.

Haniger's path has been derailed a bit with a blown out knee.  However, he still shows the tools that elevated him to the first round of the 2012 draft.  He can play all three outfield positions who has a plus arm while his fringe center speed can work with proper placement and route running.  At the plate, his power is increasingly showing up in games and his contact rate improved last season.  However, contact is a concern at the MLB level and he is not particularly adept on the basepaths.  I would think someone will pick him up simply because it is difficult to find someone who can reasonably handle center.  It would be risky, but one source suggests that he is the one available outfielder in the Rule 5 who could start for a second division club.  That is likely a unique view of Haniger, but his available in the Rule 5 draft was a slight surprise for a club who has space to burn on their 40 man roster.

Luigi Rodriguez, OF
Cleveland Indians

Year	Age	Lev	PA	2B	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
2010	17	FRk	249	7	2	36	35	.301	.403	.461
2011	18	A-Rk	251	10	3	19	55	.304	.356	.423
2013	20	A+-A	222	13	1	28	61	.275	.368	.370
2014	21	A+	393	13	6	50	88	.250	.347	.366
2015	22	A+	399	22	12	24	82	.293	.335	.492
A+ (3 seasons)		Minors	926	46	18	92	206	.274	.347	.428

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/29/2015.

Rodriguez is another interesting player who appears destined at some point to reach the majors.  His standing in the Rule 5 would appear to be depressed as he was only in HiA ball last season.  His game at the MLB level would be focused on his use of in-game speed and that he is plus defensive centerfielder.  Always a big doubles and triples hitter, balls started leaving the field last year, which may have introduced a side of Rodriguez that may be out to play now.  Certainly a stretch, but one of the few available players who might have a higher ceiling than most.

Victor Roache, LF
Milwaukee Brewers

Year	Age	Lev	PA	2B	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
2013	21	A	516	14	22	46	137	.248	.322	.440
2014	22	A+	481	17	18	37	138	.226	.298	.400
2015	23	A+-AA	513	22	18	44	158	.253	.324	.439

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/30/2015.

Roache was an underslot pick in first round of the 2012 draft due to a broken wrist that put into doubt his only loud tool, his power.  After rehabbing the rest of 2012, the Brewers found that Roache still had his power and that he has expressed that power in a relatively reliable way throughout the minors.  He basically puts together a 245/320/440 line with about 150 strikeouts no matter what level he finds himself.  So, the power is real, plays in-game, and he has developed accordingly.

However, that low contact rate sure seems like it would be a problem in the Majors with more advanced pitching throwing breaking balls at the corners.  Additionally, his defensive capabilities are limited by poor range, which firmly keeps him in the corner outfield and threatens a designated hitter role.  Without a bump up in his contact rate or another advance in his power display, he is unlikely to stick with a club.

Tyler Goeddel, UTL
Tampa Bay Rays

Year	Age	Lev	PA	2B	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
2012	19	A	379	19	6	38	94	.246	.335	.371
2013	20	A	497	18	7	40	98	.249	.313	.389
2014	21	A+	479	25	6	46	98	.269	.349	.408
2015	22	AA	533	17	12	48	98	.279	.350	.433

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/30/2015.

Goeddel is athletic, but the hands are a little dodgy.  The Rays gave up making him a 3B last year after a solid two years at the hot corner.  Goeddel was simply not showing much improvement with his first steps, gets his hands in position, advancing, or making strong, accurate throws.  That said, if you are accustomed to seeing Jimmy Parades man second or third for a game or two, you would not bat an eye at Goeddel's difficulties.  Anyway, he is capable of playing all three outfield positions, but is not well experienced with his route running.  His defense, to say the least, is a work in progress.

His hitting is a bit more interesting.  The table above hides his yearly triple total of around 10 and that he swipes about 30 bases a year.  Beyond showing good power gap to gap, he also doubled his home run production last year and may be showing some ability to launch 15-20 home runs eventually.  My guess is that Goeddel is the first outfielder selected.  He could be special-ish.

Dwight Smith, OF
Toronto Blue Jays

Year	Age	Lev	PA	2B	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
2012	19	Rk-A-	244	9	4	17	33	.212	.279	.315
2013	20	A	479	17	7	52	82	.284	.365	.388
2014	21	A+	533	28	12	58	69	.284	.363	.453
2015	22	AA	512	26	7	47	64	.265	.335	.376

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/30/2015.

After a breakout 2014 campaign, the Blue Jays tried to find ways to diversify Smith's abilities to get move his bat forward.  His work at 2B was limited largely to the practice fields and a couple appearances in the Arizona Fall League.  At AA, Smith's emergence did not continue, which is likely why he finds himself unprotected this December in the Rule 5.

He is a decent outfielder and capable to play all three positions.  Smith has good speed, but that speed does not show up on the base paths.  He has an advanced approach at the plate, but it turns often into weak contact.  For me, this is promising, but he will need reps in hope to generate more meaningful contact.  Power-wise, he has some gap to gap capabilities.  Although he does not look all that special (if he did look special, then he would be protected), he does a have a track record at AA that is somewhat respectable and some versatility in the outfield with a bit of awareness for perhaps a few innings of play at 2B.

Working Our Way Through The 2015 Rule 5 Fodder: Introduction And Infield

If you are searching for a comprehensive Rule 5 series, this is not it.  I will direct you over to Baseball America who does a decent job, but certainly makes certain conclusions that I disagree with.  For instance, it is noted that available Astro catcher Roberto Pena could improve upon his pitch presentation.  Based on the analysis I have seen, he actually rates as one of the best pitch framers in the minors.  So, yeah, don't take their word as gospel.  Likewise, think critically with my words as well.

Anyway, this series will look at areas where the Orioles might have some interest in checking out a player in Spring Training.  This means my focus will be one backup infielders and fourth outfielders.  Given the current trio of catchers on the 40 man roster, I see little need for the club to dabble behind the plate.  With the need to keep Dylan Bundy in the pen, I doubt pitchers are targeted.  The club would be interested in a starting pitcher, but those simply do not exist in the Rule 5.  This post will look at the five available infield prospects that I find most interesting.

Matt Skole, 1B
Washington Nationals

Year	Age	Tm	Lev	PA	2B	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
2011	21	Auburn	A-	319	23	5	42	52	.290	.382	.438
2012	22	Hagerstown	A	448	18	27	94	116	.286	.438	.574
2012	22	Potomac	A+	76	10	0	5	17	.314	.355	.486
2013	23	Harrisburg	AA	7	1	0	2	2	.200	.429	.400
2014	24	Harrisburg	AA	544	29	14	78	127	.241	.352	.399
2015	25	Harrisburg	AA	365	14	12	44	92	.232	.332	.398
2015	25	Syracuse	AAA	182	9	8	28	35	.238	.357	.457
Minors (5 seasons)			Minors	1941	104	66	293	441	.260	.374	.452

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/25/2015.

The Orioles need a first baseman and the Nationals' left hander could be a useful challenger for that role even if the club resigns the slightly versatile Chris Davis.  Skole started out as a third baseman, but a lack of range worked against him and the presence of Ryan Zimmerman and Anthony Rendon extinguished what meager light there was.

A high average and big power hitter in low minors, Skole has not seen as much success with the upper minors which was accompanied by a blown out knee in 2013.  Skole still shows big time power, but his profile is emerging as a strong platoon side bat with contact issues.  We could call him a poor man's Pedro Alvarez.

In my opinion, Skole is one of the more obvious selections, but whose ability to stay in the Majors in 2016 is a bit doubtful.  Skole was one of the players I identified in my "hidden diamonds" college features back in the day, which have been shown to identify players who have outperformed where they were drafted.  I still have hope in him.  Another 1B that was also identified by that process was Christian Walker.

Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B
Kansas City Royals

Year	Age	Lev	PA	2B	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
2007	17	Rk	197	5	1	12	68	.174	.244	.242
2008	18	Rk	197	14	3	11	48	.307	.360	.458
2010	20	A	372	20	9	20	123	.220	.266	.373
2011	21	A--A	354	18	6	22	75	.249	.305	.366
2012	22	A-	283	20	9	14	82	.282	.325	.471
2013	23	A	108	4	4	8	32	.208	.287	.396
2015	25	AA-AAA	378	28	17	12	59	.358	.384	.589
Minors (8 seasons)		Minors	2324	130	57	108	606	.266	.308	.419
Foreign (6 seasons)		Foreign	357	14	16	18	96	.290	.339	.483
Other (2 seasons)		Other	675	43	36	33	116	.331	.370	.575

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/25/2015.

Balbino Fuenmayor is interesting for several reasons.  He was one of the major international signings by the Blue Jays in 2006.  His batting practice power looked immense, but never quite translated into games along with a poor walk rate and little contact.  After a poor stint in single A, the Blue Jays cut him loose.  Backed up by decent winter league numbers and an explosive 675 PA in Indy ball, Balbino was given a second chance with the Royals last year.  He responded by excelling in AA and AAA before his season ended with a torn ACL.

As such, the right hander shows promise, but full of concerns.  His ACL injury may make it difficult to keep him on an active roster.  He will need to spend most of the season with the club and has only so much time to spend on the disabled list or on rehab assignment.  His game is so dependent on contact that there is concern that his low walk rate will make it struggle for him to be a positive contributor at the MLB level.  He might be one of the more exciting names out there, but I doubt anyone will give him much of a shot.

Alex Yarbrough, 2B
Anaheim Angels

Year	Age	Lev	PA	2B	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
2012	20	A-AA	275	13	0	10	23	.275	.307	.393
2013	21	A+	615	32	11	27	106	.313	.341	.459
2014	22	AA	592	38	5	33	124	.285	.321	.397
2015	23	AAA	545	29	3	26	136	.236	.274	.324
All Levels (4 Seasons)			2027	112	19	96	389	.279	.313	.396

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/25/2015.

Yarbrough, perhaps, looks far more interesting than he really is.  A quick skim will find him as a switch hitting second baseman with some defensive accolades, strong gap-to-gap power, and decent contact until last year.  In reality, while he has sure hands, his range is atrocious, he was unable to do anything at the plate in the high flying Pacific Coast League, and has always swung and missed even with the less advanced pitchers at each level.

That said, the previous stretches of decent contact and doubles power might intrigued some.  Poor defensive range at second base can be somewhat mitigated by utilizing defensive shifts (a practice the Angels have been loathe to incorporate).  He could be worth a closer look to certain teams who might be able to make the most of his abilities and minimize the risk of his deficiencies.

Ronny Rodriguez, 2B/3B
Cleveland Indians

Year	Age	Lev	PA	2B	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
2011	19	A	394	28	11	13	83	.246	.274	.449
2012	20	A+	483	20	19	19	88	.264	.300	.452
2013	21	AA	498	25	5	16	76	.265	.291	.376
2014	22	AA	447	25	5	25	92	.228	.270	.324
2015	23	AA	285	14	11	10	60	.286	.316	.491
Minors (5 seasons)		Minors	2107	112	51	83	399	.256	.289	.412

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/25/2015.

Rodriguez is in a similar boat defensively as Yarbrough, but is blessed with a plus plus arm that lets him competently throw across the diamond from the hot corner.  He once was a promising prospect in the Indians systems whose 2012 season has the club wondering about his ability to be a power mashing middle infielder, but two heavily depressed seasons later took a significant hit to his standing.  Last year was promising.  After missing half the season with a wrist injury, Rodriguez' third stint in AA gave a kickstart.  He showed power and decent contact while at a still reasonable age for a prospect.

With Rodriguez' ability to play third and first while being protected at second, he should be seen as valuable.  He appears to be a player similar in profile to Ryan Flaherty and can probably play shortstop in a pinch as well.  If the club wishes to save half a million, Rodriguez might be an option.

Jacob Wilson, 2B/3B
St. Louis Cardinals

Year	Age	Lev	PA	2B	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
2012	21	A-	179	7	6	13	33	.275	.341	.444
2013	22	A-A+	546	28	18	57	74	.243	.336	.424
2014	23	AA-A+	283	25	5	23	47	.302	.362	.460
2015	24	AA	141	6	7	17	25	.225	.326	.450
2015	24	AAA	342	14	11	23	68	.231	.292	.391
Minors (4 seasons)		Minors	1491	80	47	133	247	.254	.330	.428

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/25/2015.

Jacob Wilson is more of a true utility player.  He can man second, third, and left field, possessing a plus arm.  He shows power and a decent understanding of the strike zone.  Contact was an issue in the upper minors and may expose a major deficiency in his profile as he faces more advanced pitching.  He appears to have a lower ceiling than Rodriguez, but a higher floor.  That floor though is as a bench player in AAA.  However, many clubs do look at that walk rate and decent defense, finding Wilson to be an uncommonly safe player to bet on as a Rule 5 acquired role player.