Crystal Ball: Year 1 Post Angelos

This off season and spring training has been a slow one for baseball and the Baltimore Orioles.  It appears that MLB at large decided to do what the Orioles have been doing under Dan Duquette: wait out the market.  Waiting out the market, particularly when so many others are waiting out the market, brings on the anxiety and a rush for explanation.  Adding to that unease, is that the Orioles currently stand about 30 to 40 MM under where their payroll sat last year.

There were reasons though to think that a constriction of payroll was coming.  One, the Orioles did not make the post-season and did not get to taste the extra revenue that brings.  Two, MASN ratings decreased (26% decrease from 2016) and, we believe, that cable rates were renegotiated with providers this past off season.  Three, the club was already highly leveraging their revenue to the extent that it was unique.  Four, I had some peripheral interactions that led me to think that the club was perhaps reorganizing allocation of assets for sale of the franchise.

That last point has had the most travel with people discussing it.  The Angelos ownership group gives some giddiness with the thought that a major player will come in, buy the team, increase payroll, and the club will win out.  I personally think the assumptions at play there are a bit too optimistic.  When one looks at payroll leverage, the average club invests 46% of their revenue into their payroll.  Mets, Indians, and Giants are good examples of teams with vastly different revenues who all settle in there.  Half of baseball falls within about ten percent of that rate.

Last year, the Marlins were leveraged 58% into payroll, which was fourth most.  After the roster exodus, the club now sits at 42%.  While the meager revenue stream in Miami (compared to MLB in general) makes that 86 MM payroll look lean, it actually is a common carrying amount of leverage.  Some point to the Red Sox after John Henry bought the club.  His first payroll saw a decrease from 65% payroll leverage to 54% leverage (which was league average at that point in time).

Really the only team that has bounced that trend was the cash flushed Magic Johnson et al. purchase of the cash poor and inept McCourt ownership of the Los Angeles Dodgers where they more than doubled payroll.  One would argue that there are major differences there.  One, the Dodgers had an absurdly wonderful new television deal coming into play and, two, did not have the crippling debt that the McCourts had.

While the Orioles have not been a stranger to debt, running into some accounting troubles a few years back, they are thought not to be struggling under the debts accrued by the club.  However, there are concerns that a re-consolidation purchase under John Angelos would be the best case scenario and, yet, still have major issues with respect to buying out the partners that would be leaving and needing replacements.  Any new group would likely be met with a hard purchase from the Angelos group and that being coupled with an uncertain value for MASN (due to arbitration and court issues) and a market that is somewhat undermined with the presence of the bigger and more cash flushed DC metropolitan area being controlled by the Nationals.

What is going for the team is that the local fan base is heavily engaged in the club with the team often finding itself in the top ten, if not top five, in tv ratings.  That is somewhat lessened by the small media market when that rating figure is translated into actual households.  In the end, a strong argument can be made that the Orioles are a small market team and that argument is validated by how MLB views the Orioles within revenue sharing.

What direction this all points us in is that the Orioles, when ownership transitions, will likely see a reduction in payroll.  Last year the Orioles leveraged their revenue around 65% (2nd overall).  With the reduction in payroll this year, that figure now sits at 53% (7th overall).  There is some indication that the club will make one more signing and could well wind up around 57%.  Anyway, if we assume that the team will drop down to a league average payroll, we are looked at a figure of around 114 MM.

To get to 114 MM in 2019, it will actually be quite easy.  The team stands now at 134 MM.  The departures of Adam Jones and Manny Machado would take the payroll down to 101 MM.  Zach Britton would be another significant departure of 12 MM.  Get rid of those free agents and others (e.g., Brad Brach, Chris Tillman) and figure in potential arbitration raises, you get a potential payroll of about 94 to 110 MM for 2019.

I think it would be reasonable to think that a sale this year or in the off-season would result in a freezing of the roster for 2019.  2020 would then present the likely scenario for what the new ownership group would be able to afford.  History would dictate something in the neighborhood of 105-125 MM, which is slightly below where the club is now.

The Orioles Aren't Rebuilding, But They're Not Reloading Either

It's a normal response to frequently ask what the Orioles are doing. They don't operate like other teams, and they don't often do what you want them to. Sometimes that's good, and it has led to wonderfully unexpected things in the Buck Showalter and Dan Duquette era. Hopefully you didn't overlook the return to relevancy.

Regardless, this offseason has been a disaster for the Orioles. The O's weren't open to trading franchise player and soon-to-be-free-agent Manny Machado, but then soon after the Yankees acquired Giancarlo Stanton, that changed. The O's entertained offers, but they never received one that was enticing enough to pull the trigger. They were also at least willing to discuss a trade for Zach Britton. In late December, Britton ruptured his right Achilles' tendon and will miss a chunk of the season.

There's a lot more, of course. Important players are entering the final year of their deals. Contract extensions are not being discussed. Showalter and Duquette are also working on expiring deals. There is almost no part of this team's future that is set in stone other than knowing it's going to be frustrating.

Did you want the Orioles to sell early and get a head start on rebuilding? Too bad. And, well, if you wanted them to go all in -- or, to use Duquette's own word, "reload" -- that ship seems to have sailed. The very reasonable goal heading into the offseason was to inject some life into the starting rotation and add a competent left-handed outfielder to help balance out the lineup. The Orioles have kinda/sorta added to the rotation while also hoping fans will talk themselves into Colby Rasmus or Alex Presley (added on minor league deals).

The Orioles could have done almost anything to their starting rotation and it would have been viewed as a modest upgrade. Still, instead of tackling the deficiencies head-on and at least meeting last year's payroll, the O's have opted to only move the needle in minor and relatively inexpensive ways.

So far, the Orioles have signed two noteworthy starting pitchers. The first, Andrew Cashner, is fine. He's a No. 4 or (preferably) No. 5 starter, and he signed a two-year deal with a club option. The hope is he's not the next Yovani Gallardo. With the second signing, Chris Tillman, the hope is that he's healthy and doesn't pitch the way that Chris Tillman pitched just last season. The O's signed Tillman to a major league deal, for $3 million guaranteed and a bunch of incentives, while a couple other teams were interested in inking him to a minor league deal. Again, while not an amazing option, he's fine. With so many unknowns also in the fold, Tillman has had past success in a tough division.

Added to a very good rotation, Cashner and Tillman could round it out as long as they aren't being counted on to perform better than adequately. But Cashner and Tillman aren't joining a great or even above-average rotation. That's not a knock on Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy; it's just the way it is. Those two guys need more help, and the kind of help they need is more than Cashner and Tillman.

One hope all along is that the O's are just waiting in the weeds to sneak in and sign Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn. (There's no way they sign Jake Arrieta.) But, well, Roch Kubatko doused those hot stove dreams on Tuesday morning:

The Orioles checked on Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb, determined that there wasn’t a financial match and moved on from the trio.

That's pretty much been the report all along, unless the prices for those two drop significantly and they accept a short-term deal. Without them, the O's are still surely going to bring in another starting pitcher. The need (more want) for a lefty starter won't go away. And they could always bring in someone like... Scott Feldman, apparently.

The O's plans under Duquette always involve waiting, but what does waiting around do now if the O's don't intend to use any of their assumed payroll room? And yes, it's assumed. Right now, the O's are around $130 million spent, and in 2017 they spent about $165 million on their 25-man roster. What a truly bizarre time this would be to shrink payroll. There's no guarantee that even adding Cobb or Lynn would make the O's playoff contenders, but at the bare minimum the O's need more help to have any chance to flourish this season. That help also includes the ever-present need for actual MLB-quality outfielders who can do things like field and run, and yet two years and $7.5 million for Jarrod Dyson is apparently too risky? Yikes. There is no move that is completely without risk. The Orioles know this, but maybe they want you to think otherwise.

The O's might not be bad in 2018, but they surely don't seem primed to contend for a playoff spot. There are things they could do or could have done that would move them closer to contention while also keeping an eye on not sacrificing the future. But they aren't doing them. That isn't the Orioles' style. They'll only do the things they're comfortable with, and it'll make Showalter and Duquette look even more like miracle workers years down the road.

Peter Angelos is Not Cheap

If one frequents Twitter for long enough, you hear a common refrain that takes many different forms.  Boil it down and it is a resounding "Peter Angelos is too cheap to spend any money".  This mantra is said often.  You tend to get it coupled with the idea that the Orioles are a sleeping giant (which I think is properly credited to Peter Gammons during the Flanny/Beattie years), which ignores how power and money have largely left the confines of Baltimore to other locations either by migrating down to DC, migration/buyouts to other areas of the country, or simply mainstays of Baltimore economy drying up.  A very complex issue is expressed very simply and Baltimore's presence as a top tier American city is something many Marylanders believe to their very core regardless of inconvenient facts like market size, corporate presence, population, etc.

To try to nail down the facts a bit, we could lean on Forbes and assume their estimates for payroll and revenue are fairly accurate.  If you accept that, then the Orioles have the ninth lowest revenue in MLB.  That is something that MLB itself would largely agree with as the Orioles quality for special compensation in the form of draft picks and revenue sharing because they are categorized as a low revenue club.  To those who might scoff at that, in what interest is it in MLB to make the Orioles look better off than they actually are.  Other teams would want that compensation.  MLB might well would prefer the Orioles to look better so that the tangled issues with MASN might untangle a little easier.

Anyway, below we have a list of clubs, payroll, and revenue.  It is ordered greatest to least in club's proportion of revenue dedicated to MLB payroll. 

Rank 2017	Team	2017 Payroll	Estimated Revenue	% MLB Payroll
1	Tigers	$200	$275	72.7
2	Orioles	$164	$253	64.9
3	Royals	$146	$246	59.3
4	Marlins	$120	$206	58.3
5	Rangers	$173	$298	58.1
6	Nationals	$165	$304	54.1
7	Mariners	$154	$289	53.4
8	Blue Jays	$144	$278	51.8
9	Rockies	$128	$248	51.6
10	Dodgers	$226	$462	48.8
11	Cardinals	$150	$310	48.5
12	Angels	$164	$350	46.9
13	Mets	$156	$332	46.9
14	Indians	$126	$271	46.4
15	Braves	$126	$275	45.9
16	Giants	$182	$428	42.4
17	Twins	$105	$249	42.1
18	Red Sox	$179	$434	41.2
19	Astros	$122	$299	40.9
20	Cubs	$177	$434	40.8
21	Reds	$93	$229	40.6
22	Athletics	$82	$216	37.8
23	W. Sox	$100	$269	37.2
24	Yankees	$195	$526	37.1
25	DBacks	$93	$253	36.8
26	Rays	$71	$205	34.8
27	Pirates	$92	$265	34.5
28	Phillies	$112	$325	34.4
29	Brewers	$61	$239	25.4
30	Padres	$61	$259	23.7

As you can see, and pretty much what we have said here at the Depot for awhile, the club's current philosophy is to highly leverage their operation into MLB pay.  As such, the Orioles devote the second highest percentage of revenue to MLB payroll.

At the very least, I think this helps show that there is uncertainty in saying that Angelos is cheap.  Indicators exist that the opposite might well be true.

What Are The Orioles Doing?

The Orioles always march to the beat of their own drum. During the offseason, that means plenty of interest but not much action, a lot of waiting, and, of course, Rule 5 draft picks. But with Buck Showalter, Dan Duquette, Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Zach Britton, Brad Brach, and others heading into what could be their final seasons in Baltimore, there's more urgency than usual.

That's why, at least in theory, it made sense that the Orioles were rejecting any notions of rebuilding and would instead gear up for one final run. So let's see what they've done so far to reload:

• Acquired OF Jaycob Brugman from the A's for RHP Jake Bray
• Selected 3 pitchers in the Rule 5 draft
• Signed RHP Michael Kelly to a major league deal

The O's have also signed a bunch of players to minor league deals, but that's it. Meanwhile, they missed out on starting pitchers like Tyler Chatwood, Doug Fister, Miles Mikolas, and Mike Fiers; have essentially deemed upgrades like Alex Cobb and maybe Lance Lynn as "too costly" while Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta are certainly out of their price range; wavered on not fielding offers for Machado and Britton but have failed to complete any deals; recently lost Britton for a chunk of the season to a ruptured Achilles tendon; and have to figure out whether Machado plays shortstop or third base if they keep him.

Maybe the only positive developments for the O's this offseason are Kevin Gausman changing his number to honor Roy Halladay and them telling off intolerant people on Twitter.

Should the Orioles push all their chips in and go for it? Should they rebuild? You probably have strong opinions on whether the O's should do one of those things, and you could defend those stances. What you can't defend is the team simply refusing to do either one and continuing to punt on nearly every major decision while only improving the team in the tiniest ways. Under Duquette, the O's have always worked the fringes to improve the team's depth. But depth doesn't matter as much when you have gaping holes in the starting rotation.

Maybe the O's are just laying in the weeds and getting ready to strike. Maybe that means not conveniently using how poorly the Ubaldo Jimenez signing went and adding one of Cobb or Lynn and then another starter or two. Maybe they'd even consider a strong upgrade in the outfield like Lorenzo Cain! It's not like the O's don't have some freed-up money to spend. And that's not even including when MLB owners receive $50-plus million in 2018 from the sale of BAMTech.

But no, that's almost certainly not going to happen. The Orioles are going to do something because they have to, but it's not going to be anything meaningful. If they do go for it, that'll just mean relying on the talent they already have while hoping for bounce-back seasons from Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo, and others. If that sounds depressing, it kind of is. At least the Orioles have some players who are fun to watch.

Avoiding A Machado Deal With The Yankees Won't Help The Orioles

In nearly every new development in the ongoing Manny Machado trade saga, there's usually a mention of how the Orioles are unlikely to trade him to the Yankees. That improbability is attributed to Peter Angelos's apparent unwillingness to make a significant trade with New York, and that he's wary of dealing with any team that could then flip Machado to the Yankees themselves.

It doesn't seem that many reporters expect that Angelos and his "trusted confidants" would approve such a deal, but it's at least possible: 

Even though [Dan] Duquette has said he will not rule out negotiating with the Yankees or Boston Red Sox, the idea of dealing a player of Machado’s profile to the Yankees would be a hard sell to Angelos, though it seems more likely now that he could be convinced if the Orioles receive the right return, according to a source.

Let's just make things clear: The Orioles should absolutely be open to dealing with the Yankees. As Eduardo Encina details above, the Yankees have some intriguing trade pieces that should interest the Orioles.

One of the big question marks hanging over the Machado ordeal is why the O's stopped approaching Machado's agent to try and get a deal done. In September, when it was reported that the O's had no interest in trading Machado, Jon Heyman noted this:

Of course, that doesn’t preclude a trade at next year’s trading deadline. The Orioles are said by sources to have come “within $8 million or $9 million” of locking him up a couple years back, though one person familiar with those talks said the offer was for “well below $100 million,” and that person suggested he didn’t believe the sides were especially close to a deal. However, it seems Machado’s side might have made some sort of counteroffer to stay, or at least provided parameters, since sources are suggesting the gap ($8 million to $9 million) existed.

Word is that Angelos, especially conservative when it comes to medical records (they’ve rejected several potential acquisitions in the past), was leery about Machado’s history of knee injuries at the time. Machado has shown he’s plenty healthy since, of course.

That's likely what Encina is referring to here: "The Orioles haven’t engaged extension talks with Machado in three years, last attempting them when he was returning from the second of his two knee reconstructions in 2014. They’ve had little more than a fleeting conversation since."

So what changed between now and then? Maybe that process soured the relationship between Machado and the Orioles. Maybe an extension was never that close. Or maybe Machado really does want to leave for a bigger market or doesn't think the O's can build a consistent World Series contender. We don't know these things yet, but I'll imagine we will one day.

For now, a couple things appear to be true. First, the Orioles are not going to sign Machado to an extension. That means after the upcoming season, he can sign with any team he wants. There's nothing the Orioles can do to stop that.

Second, the Orioles are not doing all they can to compete in 2018. Duquette talked about reloading, but the O's aren't doing that in any convincing way. They're just doing their own version of reloading, which apparently means not paying what it takes to upgrade an awful starting rotation and looking for any kind of overlooked value that can be had at a bargain.

The Orioles can control where they send Machado for the next season, and that's it. They could either hold on to Machado for the time being, or they can choose to take the best possible mix of major league ready talent and prospects -- which could come from the Yankees -- or to send him somewhere else, for a possible lesser return, out of spite. Think of how desperate the O's are for young, cost-controlled talent, and then think of them using this trade to stick it to the Yankees when they could simply sign Machado in a year.

The Yankees are going to be good. Their roster is loaded. It was already loaded before they traded for Giancarlo Stanton (which also seemed to set off an immediate shift in the O's strategy with Machado). The Yankees are set up to be very good for a long time, with or without Machado.

Maybe the Yankees sign Machado this offseason, or maybe they go in some other direction. But however good they end up being, the O's need to do everything possible to improve their own situation. If that means the best trade package from the Yankees is on the table, then so be it.

If you have no faith in that happening, I can't blame you. I don't really either. But until the options are gone, the possibility still exists that the O's could do the best possible things to set them up for future success. With the O's staring down another extended stretch of futility, I'll at least hold on to that hope for now.

Suitors Are Lining Up To Trade For Manny Machado

The Orioles may have waited too long to put Manny Machado on the trade block, but several teams are jumping at the chance to acquire him now. According to Bob Nightengale, the O's have received more than a dozen offers and could be nearing a deal soon:

The #Orioles are moving aggressively on Manny Machado trade talks and now believe they can move him by the end of the week with the strength of their offers

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) December 14, 2017

As reported from the start, the Cardinals remain interested in Machado and have apparently made a "strong offer" for him. While the Yankees, Phillies, and now Giants are among the interested teams, the White Sox, surprisingly, appear to have made the best offer.

As we've previously discussed, if the O's are not interested or are unable to re-sign Machado -- and that appears to be the case, since they incredulously haven't had serious extension talks for years -- then they must deal him now for the best possible return. Letting Machado walk via free agency and getting only the draft pick compensation would be a failure of epic proportions.

If or when Machado is dealt, as painful as it would be, others need to follow him out the door. That means entertaining offers for Zach Britton, Brad Brach, Adam Jones, Mychal Givens, and others. And yes, that even means Jonathan Schoop. With two years left on his contract and him coming off a career year, Schoop has a lot of value. The O's shouldn't make the same mistake they made with Machado; Schoop should be moved for the best group of players. Don't be surprised when more players aren't moved, though, with more mind-numbing logic like this.

None of this would be easy, of course. Watching a winning ballclub is fun! Losing all of the above players would lead to a not very good team in a strong division. But it's the best course of action for a team with an uncertain future and several important impending free agents (including both Dan Duquette and Buck Showalter).

One final run at least sounded interesting when it was assumed the O's would take upgrading their starting rotation seriously. Unfortunately, that is not the case, with ownership again souring on three- or four-year deals after the failed Ubaldo Jimenez experiment (or simply just using that as a convenient excuse). The upper tier starters are always off limits, but now so is the tier below them (Alex Cobb, Lance Lynn, and the already signed Tyler Chatwood).

Duquette may not like the word rebuild. Peter Angelos clearly doesn't like to rebuild, either. Well, that's too bad. The O's inaction put them in this position, and the only way to get themselves out of another looming stretch of futility is to put their trade pieces together and get the strongest return. Add as many intriguing players as possible and hope a few of them pan out. The O's should have already considered this and been proactive, but it's better late than never.

Pick One, Orioles: Trade Manny Machado Now Or Pay For Pitching

Last January, Jon did an excellent job of framing the Orioles' dilemma with Manny Machado and laying out the difficulties and possibilities. Of course, we know the O's have held on to Machado and now have him under control for just one more season, and that they're unlikely to sign him to an extension.

The Orioles have gotten off to a slow start this offseason to address their needs, and there's nothing surprising about that. Under Dan Duquette, the O's typically wait out the market while they search for potential bargains and players they feel have slipped through the cracks. Sometimes it works, and it seems to fit how O's ownership operates.

There are a few differences between the team's situation now and previous years, though. The O's clear weakness is starting pitching, and they currently only have two starting pitchers they can rely on for 2018: Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman. There's nothing new about this deficiency, and there was no question that the Orioles absolutely, positively had to address this to have any chance to compete for a playoff spot in the upcoming season.

There's also the matter of the team's impending free agents. It's not just Machado, whose probable departure would be stressful enough on its own. There's also Adam Jones, Zach Britton, and Brad Brach who could be on the way out of Baltimore. Again, none of this is a new development. Duquette talked a couple months ago about the team's need to reload, not retool. Considering the weight of the roster decisions, then, you'd figure that would lead to some sense of urgency. It hasn't.

It's almost mid-December, and the O's haven't done anything to address the rotation. Tyler Chatwood seemed like a sensible target, and he signed with the Cubs on Thursday for three years and $38 million. The Cubs, apparently on a mission to destroy O's fans' dreams, also have strong interest in Alex Cobb to complete their rotation. There are other free agent pitchers out there who the Orioles could pursue -- Lance Lynn, Jhoulys Chacin, Jason Vargas, Jaime Garcia, Andrew Cashner, CC Sabathia, Miguel Gonzalez, Chris Tillman, and others -- but Cobb and Chatwood are two of the better choices after the top two options in Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta, who the O's will avoid because they're going to command lots of money and plenty of years.

You're already hearing some of the same, old things from years past: that the O's "had interest" when someone signs with another team (Chatwood, Mike Fiers), and now that improving the rotation is going to be a challenge. This is the problem when the O's version of going "all in" is more or less the same way they operate in a typical offseason. How can you reload if you're going to sit out while the best starters go elsewhere? The O's don't just need to add a fifth starter or some maybe underappreciated, low-tier pitching option. They need multiple accomplished starters.

If the Orioles are not going to do everything possible to upgrade the starting rotation, including outbidding other teams for desired players, then why hold on to Machado, Britton, and others and pretend like they have any real chance to compete? The Yankees just added the reigning NL MVP in Giancarlo Stanton. The O's won't even pay for three or four years of Tyler Chatwood. Considering the full picture, why would anyone think this is going to end well?

The Orioles are not going to pay what it takes to keep Machado. It would be painful, but if they trade him right now, at the very least the O's could get a few valuable prospects in return. Machado is currently healthy and will be in demand for some team. The same goes for Britton, Jones, and Brach, just to a lesser extent. Don't want to trade Britton and hope that he re-establishes his trade value enough to deal at the trade deadline? Sure, whatever. The others have value, but Machado is the big piece.

One problem with this whole thing is the O's can't be trusted to rebuild in any meaningful way. A fire sale is not the organization's style under Peter Angelos. But besides that, they're not going to reverse course and start spending in the international market. They're not going to tear everything down in an effort to correct whatever has been wrong with their pitcher prospect development for years. And they're not going to get the most out of whatever promising pitchers are currently in the lower levels of their system. In that sense, maybe you can see why the O's would be stubborn and just roll the dice one more time. But how in the world can you expect to tangle with the rest of the AL East and come out on top when you're not going to give Bundy and Gausman some major help?

Scared of signing the next Ubaldo Jimenez? Not going to pay what real starter upgrades cost? Planning to count on Miguel Castro, Gabriel Ynoa, or Mike Wright to be meaningful rotation contributors? Trade Machado and co. right now and jump-start a possible rebuild. The Orioles had a wonderful run under Buck Showalter and Duquette, and it was a lot of fun. But those two might not even be in Baltimore after next season. It's time to stop punting and make some real decisions.

So you're telling me there's a chance!

There a lot of ways you can sum up the Orioles 2017 season.  Most of them involve colorful, four-letter words.  In times of insanity, sometimes we must comfort ourselves with humor, lest bleakness envelope us completely.  So, let’s sprinkle in a few quotes from the timeless (and aptly-titled) Farrelly-brothers classic, Dumb and Dumber. 

Do you want to hear the most-annoying sound in the world? 

For baseball fans, it has to be the sound from a front office in denial.  For weeks, the Orioles’ brass has done a good job talking out of both sides of their mouths, promising both fire-sale and contention in practically the same breath.

We live in the bright and glorious age of advanced metrics and baby-faced, whip-smart general managers.  Despite this, it often feels like the Orioles’ baseball department procures their analysis from the contents of a crumpled-up newspaper. 

Here’s a neat fact: Fangraphs pegs the Orioles with a 3% chance of grabbing a wild card slot (sterling when compared to their .4% chance of winning the division).  To add insult to injury, even the last place Blue Jays have better odds.

Baseball fans aren’t stupid.  They can spot a dud when they see one.  Look no further than the Orioles’ middling attendance numbers, this season (26,704, 19^th in MLB).  And yet, there was Dan Duquette, on Monday, confidently informing reporters that Baltimore is going for it. 

While the quote sounds like a man trying his best to get fired, long-tenured Orioles fans can detect the strong whiff of ownership behind the rhetoric. 

I do believe the Orioles will play better down the stretch – not so much because of their controversial-acquisitions, but because the law of averages states the overall-talent of this club is too great to play .429 ball, as they did in May and June. 

Still, when your best-case scenario involves an appearance in a one-game-playoff, it’s time to burn the ships and rebuild with the future in mind.  The Orioles have done neither, failing to capitalize on expendable assets (Zach Britton, Brad Brach) and going out and acquiring players who will have little to no re-sale value. 

The perfect epitaph for the Orioles’ season is the quote from this gem of a D&D scene.

Well, minus the whole redeeming part.  Redeeming implies light at the end of a dark tunnel.  It would mean that all this agony would someday be worth it.  There is little to no evidence that will be the case.  

What Should You Think Of The Chris Davis Deal?

Chris Davis is going to re-sign with the Orioles, and he'll be playing in Baltimore for the foreseeable future. In a few ways, that's a very good thing. He's talented at what he does. He's one of the premier power hitters in the game. He's popular among fans. And he's well liked by teammates, who clearly want him back.

If you want to just stop there, that's fine. This doesn't have to be complicated. Watching sports is supposed to be fun, and the Orioles (on offense, at least) should be enjoyable to watch for the next few years (and maybe longer). But we do our best to dig a little deeper here, and you probably wouldn't be reading this if we didn't.

I've been trying to figure out what's bothering me most about the Orioles' decision to re-sign Davis. It's not the enormous amount of money, which seemed comical at first but is at least less bad after the reported amount of deferred money. Jon discussed Davis's contract in detail on Saturday, and you should give it a read.

It's not that Davis turns 30 soon and plays first base, and it's extremely risky to hand out such a lucrative contract to those types of players. That's not stating anything new.

It's not that the Orioles have spent a lot of money and, for now at least, seem very similar to last year's team.

It's not even that the Orioles seemed to bid against themselves to get the deal done, with no clear competitor in the market for Davis's services. It's tough to see that $161 million figure and wonder which other team was willing to come close to that offer.

All of those things matter. But I have more of an issue with Peter Angelos willing to spend a huge sum of money for one player -- only to reel in Davis. If Davis were far and away the best player on the market, maybe that would be easier to defend. But he wasn't. There was nothing hidden about the priority to keep Davis at seemingly whatever cost; Dan Connolly, formerly of The Baltimore Sun, was on top of this a month ago. Angelos inserted himself in the negotiations with Scott Boras early on, demonstrating the level of seriousness in keeping Davis in an O's uniform.

Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs expanded on this topic in his analysis of the Davis deal. Here's a section of his excellent post:

The idea presented: the money budgeted for Chris Davis wasn’t being budgeted for just anyone. Angelos has a particular fondness for Davis, and a particular appreciation of everything he’s done. It’s not quite that Davis is being paid right out of Angelos’ pocket, from a completely separate budget, but there are hints that the Orioles’ payroll might go higher with Davis than it would’ve without Davis. If that’s in any way true, then it has to also be a factor, because it means the Orioles would spend more on a team with Davis than they would on a team with, say, Yoenis Cespedes. Again, if that’s true, it would mean Davis is getting money that wouldn’t have been put elsewhere.

Sullivan later hits on a point that gets to exactly what has been eating at me: "...as a fan it could be frustrating to think about this situation because you’d want the same amount of money to be available regardless." And that option evidently was not available here, regardless of whatever offer the Orioles had extended to Yoenis Cespedes. You couldn't pick between Justin Upton, Cespedes, and Davis, because Upton and Cespedes were never real options for similar money (barring a tremendous discount or a bizarre short-term deal). It's better to have Davis than none of the three.

If the Orioles didn't have a particular amount of money set aside, and whatever else Angelos was willing to give to Davis was just icing on the cake, then maybe this is all easier to swallow. It seems likely that Connolly was right all along that the Orioles (Angelos, really) did not want to go above $100 million for any other player. But it's unsettling both because we'll never know for sure, and that also maybe isn't the best way to go about things.

Overpaying for sentimental reasons and past performance isn't a great pattern to follow, though willing to go above and beyond for a skilled player is a positive (especially if that extra money would not have been available for anyone else). The best use of all funds would be to use them in a way to build the best possible team, but that option likely was not on the table.

Do you really care about Angelos losing money on the Davis deal if it starts to go south in a hurry? Would you rather him just pocket that extra money? Probably not. But if this contract affects the likelihood of Manny Machado signing an extension, it will look much worse. This is the type of contract that can hamstring a team. That concern is real.

Then again, maybe Machado will be one of Angelos's guys, and he'll be willing to go above and beyond for him, too. At least in that case, he'll be making an exception for one of the very best players in the game. But let's not get ahead of ourselves or anything. Let's instead start with hoping that the 2014 version of Davis doesn't resurface anytime soon.

Orioles Are Reportedly Only Interested In Spending $100 Million-Plus On Chris Davis

It's hard for fans not to get caught up in the entertainment of free agency and the thought of plugging in one or two top free agents into their favorite team's lineup. Unfortunately, it's time to come back to reality, because it doesn't appear the Orioles will be doing anything of the sort.

Dan Connolly of The Baltimore Sun wrote last night that the team's $150 million offer "was earmarked for [Chris] Davis only." Here's more:

There was hope among the fan base that if the Orioles didn't agree to a deal with Davis, that money would be shifted toward a player like [Justin] Upton.

But according to an industry source, managing partner Peter Angelos stepped out of his comfort zone to make the club-record offer because of what Davis has meant to the franchise and community since coming here as part of a trade from Texas in 2011. It was, in part, a reward for his past successes as well as an admission that Davis' prodigious power — he has homered more over the last four seasons than any other player — is a rare commodity.

None of the above is shocking, and a large segment of the fan base would be delighted if Davis were to return at any cost. But you rarely, if ever, want to see "reward for past successes" as a driving force to re-sign a player. That's precisely what many were afraid of when it came to potentially overpaying for Nick Markakis. And that's also what leads to fanciful and misguided pieces of writing like this.

So surprising is the wrong word to describe this latest chapter in the O's offseason, but maybe perplexing isn't. The Orioles have a clear need for at least one talented, high-ceiling player. Obviously they routinely look for ways to avoid risk, and one way to do that is to not spend big in the free agent market.

But that's not what the Orioles are saying; they're saying that they'll (or that Angelos will) only spend that type of money this offseason on Davis. Simply put, that is baffling. Either you completely stay away from these mega-deals because you think they're too high-risk or you don't. Making the exception for Davis only -- maybe the fifth- or sixth-best free agent this offseason -- is just bizarre.

The Orioles clearly prefer to spend big on their own players, who they are much more familiar with. That's why Adam Jones, whose extension was viewed as a smart move for both Jones and the team at the time (and still looks excellent), has the team's largest contract. The Orioles typically avoid the cream of the crop in free agency. But when the Orioles have demonstrated they have the money to spend and a player like Upton seems to possess less risk than Davis, it shouldn't matter that he's never played for the Orioles.

If most fans were being honest with themselves, they most likely figured some type of report like this was coming. And it makes earlier mentions that the Orioles could be even a remote possibility for David Price's services even more laughable.

Orioles Reportedly Make Substantial Offer To Chris Davis, But 'No Progress' Made On Deal

It's a running theme to make fun of the Orioles and particularly Peter Angelos for being cheap, or not spending enough to keep players, or hoarding MASN money, etc. In some cases it's more justified than others, but it's really something many fans say when they're frustrated or have run out of other things to talk about. As long as Angelos owns the team, it's likely something that won't go away.

That being said, re-signing Chris Davis, who's going to command an enormous contract, would go at least part of the way to showing the Orioles are willing to do whatever it takes to retain (some of) their own expensive talent. It's not absolutely necessary -- the Orioles are a mid-market team and spend like one -- but it is intriguing.

Buster Olney previously reported that Angelos has been "personally involved" in the Davis negotiations, but last night came the first report that the Orioles made a substantial offer to Davis. According to Roch Kubatko, it might not be enough:

Sounds like no progress was made in #orioles talks with Boras regarding Chris Davis. Its believed Os offer in neighborhood of $150 mil.

— Roch Kubatko (@masnRoch) December 9, 2015

The "just do something" crowd has to at least respect this effort from Orioles management, though we still don't know (and might never know) the details of the team's offer to Davis. He's looking for the best possible deal, so it's not like he has a responsibility to simply accept the O's best offer. That's typically not how free agency works, and surely not for a Scott Boras client.

Understandably, the Orioles may be moving on from Davis soon. Regardless of the terms, a $150 deal would represent quite an investment for the Orioles -- and it would blow Adam Jones's six-year, $85.5 million contract, the largest in franchise history, out of the water.

Whether the Orioles should be making that type of financial commitment to a first baseman is arguable, and they could use that money to fill several other holes instead. It's not like there's a shortage of other free agents and trade options to consider, and locking up Davis for a huge sum would seemingly limit what the Orioles could do to shore up the starting rotation and corner outfield concerns (unless you want Davis in the outfield full time; no thanks).

The Orioles clearly want Davis back, so it will be bittersweet if he's not playing in Baltimore next year -- especially if he ends up playing for a division rival. Still, depending on what other moves the O's make this offseason, letting him walk could be a blessing in disguise.

What Are the Orioles Going to Do With Dan Duquette?

If you're getting tired of hearing about Dan Duquette and the Blue Jays, well, settle in. It was reported in December that the Blue Jays were interested in Duquette becoming the team's new president/CEO, but Peter Angelos did his best to quash those rumors, saying, "We're not relinquishing him, period. He's signed for four more years and we're delighted by the team's performance. We intend for him to remain for the next four years. We're satisfied with him, obviously."

But the story is not going away. As Ken Rosenthal noted on Wednesday:

Sources: #Orioles, #BlueJays have discussed compensation package that O’s would require for allowing GM Dan Duquette to become Jays CEO.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) January 14, 2015

Duquette under contract with #Orioles through 2018. As I’ve previously reported, some O’s people want him to go. Uncomfortable situation.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) January 14, 2015

Jon Morosi chimed in later that night:

Report by @TonyPaul1984 says trade for Dan Duquette to join #BlueJays is "almost done."
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) January 14, 2015

To summarize: #Orioles and #BlueJays in negotiations re Dan Duquette, no deal done, and Beeston is representing Jays at owners meetings.
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) January 14, 2015

But if any trade involving Duquette is "almost done," then Angelos has a fantastic poker face, because on Wednesday night he reiterated that the Orioles expect Duquette to fulfill his current contract. Here's more from Angelos:

"There have not been any changes in the status of Dan Duquette. He is our GM and he is going to remain our GM," Angelos told The Baltimore Sun. "He is concentrating on his efforts to determine the composition of our team for 2015. That is the answer. Period. . . . We are not negotiating with them in any way. They have expressed interest in Dan Duquette, which we understand because Dan is an exceptional GM. But we are not in any negotiations with Mr. Rogers," Angelos said. "We have a contract [with Duquette], and that’s the end of it."

Unfortunately, that's not the end of it. Either multiple reporters are wrong about a conversation or negotiations between the Orioles and Blue Jays regarding Duquette taking place, or Angelos isn't being honest when he says the two teams are not discussing a possible trade. Or maybe something is being lost in translation. The Orioles are, in fact, pretty busy when it comes to off-the-field issues right now, so this situation is not helping.

Clearly, the Orioles have a difficult decision to make. It's worth noting that late Wednesday night, Rosenthal wrote that Angelos's comments were "[a]ll part of negotiating" and that the "bottom line is that Angelos has an employee who wants to be elsewhere. And that is not a healthy situation."

Whatever the case, the O's would be wise to resolve this predicament as soon as possible. If Duquette truly wants to leave, then the Orioles should oblige. Why would a team entrust a general manager (or an executive vice president of baseball operations) to do the best job possible if multiple credible baseball sources are reporting that he is interested in a superior position with another club? That isn't to suggest, as some fans may think, that Duquette is sabotaging the Orioles' chances by refusing to make more moves this offseason. Do you honestly think that had anything to do with the O's letting Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis, a personal favorite of Angelos, depart? Do you think Buck Showalter would allow something like that to happen on his watch?

It is awkward that Duquette could leave to work for a division rival; that's likely one major reason why the O's (or maybe just Angelos) seem to be resisting. But the same president/CEO opportunity for Duquette does not exist in Baltimore; Angelos's oldest son, John P. Angelos, is the executive vice president of the Orioles, along with serving as president and chief operating officer of MASN. And he isn't going anywhere.

It's possible that Peter Angelos has discussed the Duquette topic twice and been so forceful about it in an effort to drive up the price for Duquette. But that seems unlikely, as an old-school type like Angelos, who certainly values the power of a contract, probably is not interested in playing games through the media to upgrade the type of prospects or players the O's could receive.

Steve Melewski of MASN, echoing Buster Olney, believes the O's "should aim high" if they deal Duquette away and that they could target "at least two of [Toronto's] higher-rated pitching prospects or at least one established big leaguer." That's a lofty price for a front office member, so perhaps that's wishful thinking. However, Olney returned to the topic last night:

Re: Dan Duquette/Blue Jays: Ball is in the hands of TOR ownership, which knows it will take an extraordinary offer to get him from O's.
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) January 15, 2015

This ends one of three ways: 1. Duquette declares he wants to stay w/O's, which hasn't happened. 2. TOR turns elsewhere for good. 3. A deal.
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) January 15, 2015

No one knows what "an extraordinary offer" means when it comes to trading for another team's general manager. But if that somehow equates to an actual top prospect or two, then the Orioles should consider a deal, if they aren't doing so already. Duquette has certainly done a great job with the Orioles, but the O's are already in pretty good hands as long as Showalter sticks around, and it's also worth noting that Andy MacPhail did a pretty good job laying the foundation for eventual success in Baltimore before Duquette arrived. That shouldn't take anything away from what Duquette has done.

Maybe the Blue Jays believe Duquette's guidance as CEO can lead them to the promised land, or something. If Duquette wants out, then the Orioles should make a change. Then again, when you see something like this...

Source says Os initially would have interest in 4 exGms if Duq leaves: Colletti, Towers, Minaya and ex-Os ast Malone http://t.co/xv3GmoIiin
— Dan Connolly (@danconnollysun) January 15, 2015

... then maybe keeping a less than thrilled Duquette around doesn't sound so bad after all. Or maybe we should admit that we have no idea what will happen, especially since Duquette's hiring was roundly mocked at the time. But whatever happens, just make sure he doesn't take Showalter with him.

Photo via Keith Allison

O's Corner Outfield Situation Up in the Air

Over the last few months at Camden Depot, we've had plenty of discussions about free agents Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis. We've been preparing for the eventual departure of Cruz, since the Orioles seemed reluctant to offer him a four-year contract, which he desperately wanted. And yesterday, the Mariners agreed to a four-year, $57 million deal with Cruz (pending a physical, of course).

It's not surprising that Cruz took the best offer available. And while it doesn't seem like the Mariners signed Cruz to a terrible contract, it is certainly risky enough and is a deal the Orioles didn't feel comfortable offering. It's also odd that the Mariners ownership apparently torpedoed a reasonable deal for Cruz last offseason, but now they are all on board with a four-year deal because Cruz had a monster 2014?

The Orioles were very good last season, and Cruz was a big part of that. But their stance all along had been a maximum length of three years for Cruz; they stuck with it. That type of logical restraint, which seemingly removed the emotional high of last year's playoff run from the equation, is something many fans have wanted from the Orioles' front office for a long time. It's never fun to lose a popular, talented player, but it's even less fun to cheer for a losing team that is anchored down by an expensive, aging ballplayer. The key is to explore every avenue, which Dan Duquette appears to be doing. And again, they did want Cruz back, but they were willing to keep that desire in check.

Nelson Cruz will be 34 next year. In 2014, just three 34-year-olds were worth at least 1.5 bWAR (Pujols, Holliday, LaRoche).
— Joe Sheehan (@joe_sheehan) December 1, 2014

The O's were unwilling to offer Nate McLouth a two-year deal last year, so they let him walk. They weren't willing to pay a closer, Jim Johnson, $10 million in his last year of arbitration. They've been fortunate with many of these moves, though the Ubaldo Jimenez contract certainly sticks out right now as one they wish they could have back. But they have been able to establish guidelines about the amount of risk they are able to shoulder. That stance is not always popular with fans who become attached to certain players.

That strategy is going to be tested with Markakis. Like with Cruz, we've provided lots of analysis lately on if the O's should re-sign Markakis and what they should do if he departs, but I doubt most fans actually believe he would leave Baltimore. But after the latest report from The Baltimore Sun's Dan Connolly, Markakis leaving finally seems like a real possibility. According to Connolly:

Although the specific holdup is not known, there has been some talk within the Orioles organization that the club is no longer comfortable with a four-year deal for Markakis. If that’s the case it would explain why the negotiations have halted, since it is believed the sides had agreed to the length of the contract early on in discussions.

A four-year contract again seems to be a sticking point, though that's more surprising considering Markakis recently turned 31, while Cruz is 34. But it's not unreasonable thinking, either, with some analysts like Keith Law recently wondering how good Markakis really is.

I'll admit that it would hurt a bit to see Markakis in a Blue Jays or Yankees uniform. It was strange to see Brian Roberts donning the pinstripes last season. But he wasn't all that good; then he was gone. It would be hard to get used to Markakis wearing another team's jersey, but it would be even tougher if he manages to play well for a few years. That's the gamble, and it's what makes the allure of free agency hard to resist.

Still, this approach to free agency is not about being cheap, which some can't help but bring up any time the Orioles and money are discussed. It's amusing to go back and read Peter Schmuck's column last year on how Peter Angelos and his minions were behind the Johnson-to-Oakland trade last year, as if that was some gross injustice instead of a smart baseball decision. If anything, Angelos, who apparently loves Markakis, would want to bring him back at nearly any price. That Markakis's exit seems possible should strengthen O's fans' trust that Duquette is running the show and focused on building a consistent winner. Duquette is far from a perfect general manager, if one even exists, but he does seem to have an overall game plan every offseason, and it's hard to argue against the team's success these past few years.

If you're looking for more on what the O's should do without Cruz and potentially Markakis, here's some Depot coverage from the last month-plus:

On Nick Markakis and Why the Orioles Should Pick Up His Option

Why Alejandro De Aza Will Be More Valuable Than Nelson Cruz in 2015

Why the Orioles Don't Need Nick Markakis

Davis Could Provide Cruz-like Production in 2015

Is Nick Markakis an Everyday Player?

Orioles Trade Target: Michael Saunders

The 2015 Orioles Outfield Will Be Fine Without Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis

Should Melky Cabrera Be the O's 'Fallback Option'?

Are the Orioles a Fit for Matt Kemp?

Photo via Keith Allison